Asymmetry
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Asymmetry
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Guru.Asymmetry
GM all!
Lots of data this week - expecting a resolution to the liquidity currently sat on in the TGA (Treasury general account - essentially the government's piggy bank). Potentially around $1.4T of liquidity about to be injected into the markets. This may be especially needed with the recent carnage with the Yen as Japan have been relentlessly selling US treasuries to prop up their currency. If even 5-10% trickles into the crypto markets - its game on again.
Crypto and our beloved alts still slowly bleeding out/consolidating following the Iran/Isreal capitulation.
Long term thoughts remain the same - this is simply a larger bull market pullback/ localised trend shift whilst macro headwinds begin to abate. Nothing out of the ordinary - we have four of these in the 2020 bull and three in the 2017 bull some were deeper, some were longer. They will always test your resolve and patience - this market is not for the feint of heart, there are no free rides here.
I am more of an INVESTOR than a TRADER of these markets. If you're trading, use it solely to stack more $BTC or USD to eventually build larger spot INVESTMENT bags for the remaining 12-18 months of the cycle.
In terms of adding fresh capital - this is at your own discretion and based on your own personal circumstances. Please be sensible here. Add on strength ONLY - we could go lower (short term). If adding fresh capital, you want confirmation that a bottom is in before adding.
If you are struggling with the volatility - ask yourself; has anything changed other than price? The underlying investment timing/thesis remains.
Sun is out finally today here in the UK. Go spend time outside, spend time with family and loved ones, focus on work, focus on hobbies etc - the market will always be here. If we consolidate for another few more weeks or even a month - make sure you stay resolute and maintain a high timeframe bias towards this market.
Things will soon be green again.
Some HTF charts for you all for perspective.
Guru.
tweet
GM all!
Lots of data this week - expecting a resolution to the liquidity currently sat on in the TGA (Treasury general account - essentially the government's piggy bank). Potentially around $1.4T of liquidity about to be injected into the markets. This may be especially needed with the recent carnage with the Yen as Japan have been relentlessly selling US treasuries to prop up their currency. If even 5-10% trickles into the crypto markets - its game on again.
Crypto and our beloved alts still slowly bleeding out/consolidating following the Iran/Isreal capitulation.
Long term thoughts remain the same - this is simply a larger bull market pullback/ localised trend shift whilst macro headwinds begin to abate. Nothing out of the ordinary - we have four of these in the 2020 bull and three in the 2017 bull some were deeper, some were longer. They will always test your resolve and patience - this market is not for the feint of heart, there are no free rides here.
I am more of an INVESTOR than a TRADER of these markets. If you're trading, use it solely to stack more $BTC or USD to eventually build larger spot INVESTMENT bags for the remaining 12-18 months of the cycle.
In terms of adding fresh capital - this is at your own discretion and based on your own personal circumstances. Please be sensible here. Add on strength ONLY - we could go lower (short term). If adding fresh capital, you want confirmation that a bottom is in before adding.
If you are struggling with the volatility - ask yourself; has anything changed other than price? The underlying investment timing/thesis remains.
Sun is out finally today here in the UK. Go spend time outside, spend time with family and loved ones, focus on work, focus on hobbies etc - the market will always be here. If we consolidate for another few more weeks or even a month - make sure you stay resolute and maintain a high timeframe bias towards this market.
Things will soon be green again.
Some HTF charts for you all for perspective.
Guru.
tweet
Asymmetry
Photo
Asymmetry
Photo
Asymmetry
Photo
Guru.Asymmetry
Market/Macro Update
Given the drop in price from $61k to $56k, the prevalence of panic isn't surprising, the institutional investors of the ETFs aren't immune to this.
ETF flows were notably negative yesterday, totalling $563.7 million in outflows. Specifically, $GBTC experienced $167.4 million in outflows, Fidelity saw $191.1 million, and Ark faced $98.1 million in outflows. Blackrock had its inaugural negative day with $36.9 million.
On a more positive note, Tether declared $4 billion in profit for Q1, of which $1 billion was net. They plan to allocate approximately $150 million to Bitcoin, which is 15% of their net - another passive bid for the $BTC buy side.
FOMC was relatively dovish. We are in the clear here imo. Powell is still expecting inflation to drop, it is likely rates are paused into the election. Most notably they are now reducing QT to stem inflationary pressures.
Unemployment figures (NFP) release tomorrow in the US. Current level is 3.8% - we want to see 3.8% or 3.7% to add further credence to the language yesterday aimed at staying resolute on the current rate pause trajectory. If there is a surprise to the downside = very bullish for our ponzis.
Rate cuts will not be good for us. Markets want certainty, they care less about the level, more about the trajectory and rate of change of interest rates.
Coinbase earnings today - this will be telling as to what has been going on behind the scenes with the flows. Coinbase is the primary custodian of all ETFs.
The market is desperately trying to form a bottom on lower timeframes. Alts have held excellently on this last leg down for $BTC - this is telling as to where immediate strength will be on a market-wide rebound upon some good news.
The prevailing expectation among most is for Bitcoin to first reach $52k before bottoming and resuming the macro trend upwards. Lets see.
Spot and wait.
Add on strength.
Don't capitulate.
Guru.
tweet
Market/Macro Update
Given the drop in price from $61k to $56k, the prevalence of panic isn't surprising, the institutional investors of the ETFs aren't immune to this.
ETF flows were notably negative yesterday, totalling $563.7 million in outflows. Specifically, $GBTC experienced $167.4 million in outflows, Fidelity saw $191.1 million, and Ark faced $98.1 million in outflows. Blackrock had its inaugural negative day with $36.9 million.
On a more positive note, Tether declared $4 billion in profit for Q1, of which $1 billion was net. They plan to allocate approximately $150 million to Bitcoin, which is 15% of their net - another passive bid for the $BTC buy side.
FOMC was relatively dovish. We are in the clear here imo. Powell is still expecting inflation to drop, it is likely rates are paused into the election. Most notably they are now reducing QT to stem inflationary pressures.
Unemployment figures (NFP) release tomorrow in the US. Current level is 3.8% - we want to see 3.8% or 3.7% to add further credence to the language yesterday aimed at staying resolute on the current rate pause trajectory. If there is a surprise to the downside = very bullish for our ponzis.
Rate cuts will not be good for us. Markets want certainty, they care less about the level, more about the trajectory and rate of change of interest rates.
Coinbase earnings today - this will be telling as to what has been going on behind the scenes with the flows. Coinbase is the primary custodian of all ETFs.
The market is desperately trying to form a bottom on lower timeframes. Alts have held excellently on this last leg down for $BTC - this is telling as to where immediate strength will be on a market-wide rebound upon some good news.
The prevailing expectation among most is for Bitcoin to first reach $52k before bottoming and resuming the macro trend upwards. Lets see.
Spot and wait.
Add on strength.
Don't capitulate.
Guru.
tweet
Asymmetry
Photo
CryptoChris.Asymmetry
RT @Asymmetry_Fi: Market/Macro Update
Given the drop in price from $61k to $56k, the prevalence of panic isn't surprising, the institutional investors of the ETFs aren't immune to this.
ETF flows were notably negative yesterday, totalling $563.7 million in outflows. Specifically, $GBTC experienced $167.4 million in outflows, Fidelity saw $191.1 million, and Ark faced $98.1 million in outflows. Blackrock had its inaugural negative day with $36.9 million.
On a more positive note, Tether declared $4 billion in profit for Q1, of which $1 billion was net. They plan to allocate approximately $150 million to Bitcoin, which is 15% of their net - another passive bid for the $BTC buy side.
FOMC was relatively dovish. We are in the clear here imo. Powell is still expecting inflation to drop, it is likely rates are paused into the election. Most notably they are now reducing QT to stem inflationary pressures.
Unemployment figures (NFP) release tomorrow in the US. Current level is 3.8% - we want to see 3.8% or 3.7% to add further credence to the language yesterday aimed at staying resolute on the current rate pause trajectory. If there is a surprise to the downside = very bullish for our ponzis.
Rate cuts will not be good for us. Markets want certainty, they care less about the level, more about the trajectory and rate of change of interest rates.
Coinbase earnings today - this will be telling as to what has been going on behind the scenes with the flows. Coinbase is the primary custodian of all ETFs.
The market is desperately trying to form a bottom on lower timeframes. Alts have held excellently on this last leg down for $BTC - this is telling as to where immediate strength will be on a market-wide rebound upon some good news.
The prevailing expectation among most is for Bitcoin to first reach $52k before bottoming and resuming the macro trend upwards. Lets see.
Spot and wait.
Add on strength.
Don't capitulate.
Guru.
tweet
RT @Asymmetry_Fi: Market/Macro Update
Given the drop in price from $61k to $56k, the prevalence of panic isn't surprising, the institutional investors of the ETFs aren't immune to this.
ETF flows were notably negative yesterday, totalling $563.7 million in outflows. Specifically, $GBTC experienced $167.4 million in outflows, Fidelity saw $191.1 million, and Ark faced $98.1 million in outflows. Blackrock had its inaugural negative day with $36.9 million.
On a more positive note, Tether declared $4 billion in profit for Q1, of which $1 billion was net. They plan to allocate approximately $150 million to Bitcoin, which is 15% of their net - another passive bid for the $BTC buy side.
FOMC was relatively dovish. We are in the clear here imo. Powell is still expecting inflation to drop, it is likely rates are paused into the election. Most notably they are now reducing QT to stem inflationary pressures.
Unemployment figures (NFP) release tomorrow in the US. Current level is 3.8% - we want to see 3.8% or 3.7% to add further credence to the language yesterday aimed at staying resolute on the current rate pause trajectory. If there is a surprise to the downside = very bullish for our ponzis.
Rate cuts will not be good for us. Markets want certainty, they care less about the level, more about the trajectory and rate of change of interest rates.
Coinbase earnings today - this will be telling as to what has been going on behind the scenes with the flows. Coinbase is the primary custodian of all ETFs.
The market is desperately trying to form a bottom on lower timeframes. Alts have held excellently on this last leg down for $BTC - this is telling as to where immediate strength will be on a market-wide rebound upon some good news.
The prevailing expectation among most is for Bitcoin to first reach $52k before bottoming and resuming the macro trend upwards. Lets see.
Spot and wait.
Add on strength.
Don't capitulate.
Guru.
tweet