https://x.com/crypto_joe10/status/1854942245428117973?s=46&t=_7XSIq4v9z-tTNbRCvz60Q

It’s not obvious until hindsight hits you. The goal is always to be extracting value from the market if you’re successful. Markets can change, they’re inherently uncertain. Always worth securing your future

Edging closer..

Don’t forget to sell some magic internet beans to change your life..

https://x.com/crypto_joe10/status/1855918584016322673?s=46&t=_7XSIq4v9z-tTNbRCvz60Q

Don’t forget that your job is to extract money from markets.

The market now is showing several signs of a mania phase, but the problem is the market has evolved. We’re no longer pumping random coins, and historic coins like in previous cycles. The supply of coins from Pump.Fun is high, and the way in which the market is interacting & engaging in them (including a lot of retail by the way) is very similar to mania.

So two things to take from this: 1) Evolve, the market isn’t the same as it use to. It requires you to be in the trenches buying hippo coins & dog coins & cat coins & memes. You can make a lot from a little if you learn the game 2) Extract money, regularly be taking profits. The market has basically gone up only for 2 years in a row. The market might continue to go uponly (it might not), but make sure to be taking profits where appropriate.

The goal of this market is to solidify yourself, your life, your friends, your family. You can’t do that if you don’t eventually TP parts of your portfolio & buy real world assets or yield bearing assets. This is important, don’t forget it.

I think BTC breaks $100k in 2025, this may be an issue in 2026 or 2027

https://x.com/crypto_joe10/status/1861183766103744649?s=46&t=_7XSIq4v9z-tTNbRCvz60Q

Rare protocol highlight for me: $VEIL

Rare protocol highlight for me: $VEIL

Project : Tornado Cash on Base (with extra compliance layer)

Prices $5m market cap, $12m FDV

Macro thesis : Privacy becomes increasingly important in a world where AI unveils more on-chain.
—— Conservative, libertarian, pro-crypto US govt in power. I think they’ll make significant strides towards supporting rather than curtailing privacy on-chain. The political tides are changing.

https://x.com/naval/status/1866348722302652734?s=46&t=_7XSIq4v9z-tTNbRCvz60Q

Micro thesis:

-> Tornado Cash, in current climate should be worth billions. It was made illegal and anyone that uses it blacklisted -> but it provides a crucial purpose of privacy on-chain (without being its own network).
—— Veil embeds their smart contracts but adds a preceding layer to prevent misuse (terrorism, laundering).

—> $Veil is backed by the Base team, particularly Jesse, that comes with coinbase too.
—- most interestingly Jesse hinted towards privacy payments being the default from coinbase. This is a significant statement.

—> Finally, the token itself trades at $5m market cap, which is priced cheap with $12m FDV. I think it has room to touch $1bn+ if privacy becomes more prevalent (which I think it will).
——Either way, it has a committed team, building something crypto needs at a very good valuation in the liquid market.

Very interested in this project, I think what they’re doing is genuinely important for the industry (I was thinking of building this myself and so have been tracking this project for a while).

https://x.com/veildotcash/status/1877827571926053220?s=46&t=_7XSIq4v9z-tTNbRCvz60Q

Coinbase integration :)

Musical Chairs speeding up

I hope this helped some of you :)

Some thoughts around the current ‘cycle’

https://x.com/Crypto_Joe10/status/1890027710572909054

Hope I don’t regret this one but:

-> ETH Staking ETF
-> Market shift towards ‘legit’ rather than ‘fast’
-> Huge underperformance, potential for mean reversion.

ETH finally I think is a great bid :)

https://x.com/Crypto_Joe10/status/1891464196920856838

Wrote my thoughts on Digital Asset Treasury Companies (including Microstratgy)

Also figured, probably about time I write in a substack

https://x.com/JosephA140/status/1957901287330312502

https://open.substack.com/pub/josephayoub/p/dats-not-going-to-last?r=4pk6s1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

Previous article on DATs is now much more timely amidst several asset sales & share buybacks. Also possible this is pressure is causing unwinds.

Expanded my writing to some non-crypto topics, which I think are relatively interesting. In this case how phones & socials affect our brain’s decision making.

https://x.com/JosephA140/status/1986117997920948590

https://josephayoub.substack.com/p/anhedonia

More specific reasons to be positive!

https://x.com/JosephA140/status/2018766353168208001?s=20

Adding the Substack here. My honest view is that the market is structurally very different from previous bull/bear markets. While history does rhyme, to expect similar results from previous history under remarkably different conditions is problematic.

Bitcoin is at historically cheap levels in Gold terms, and that won’t remain for long. In the piece I argue while measurement in Gold purchasing power is a useful proxy, and why in this case it indicates BTC is cheap here @ $74k.

https://x.com/JosephA140/status/2018986436608074081?s=20

https://josephayoub.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-digital-gold

$60k was a great place to add, and a better entry that the $73k I suggested.

I’m adjusting my view here; I think discounts can remain, although long term spot are good purchases here. And lower with a 5-10y horizon. Mid term, I’m surprised how little macro concern there was; broader equities still remain strong. Broader market weakness (which may come at some point during the year), may push Bitcoin discounts further.

I also think the interest in HL is overstated. As of today, I’m not constructive on the asset or the asset class as I once was. What they’ve done has been super. But this is still broadly a crypto driven product with crypto specific liquidity flows. I don’t see it as price competitive to companies like Robinhood or IBKR. I also think non-kyc is the primary driver of crypto specific interest, which is great until that no longer works. But on a technicals level, I struggle to see how we can maintain or supersede the interest and liquidity for Hype that it had @$60 when broader crypto was trading significantly higher and liquidity was flowing.

https://x.com/JosephA140/status/2020882681131606215?s=20

https://x.com/JosephA140/status/2020883379118280809?s=20

Written a piece on the intelligence era, and why energy is the bottleneck. What the first & second order consequences are, and how to express these theses in trades.

Covers energy, nuclear, cooling, infrastructure & more.

Condensed twitter article below (Substack is full version with all theses)

https://x.com/JosephA140/status/2037191044542919106?s=20

https://open.substack.com/pub/josephayoub/p/energy-the-bottleneck-on-intelligence?r=4pk6s1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true