$BTC Punches through LTF resistance, can it break 70k?
Crypto Market sentiment is positive right now after a fundamentally fueled run from 63k this weekend.
The tides are changing.
If you're considering a trade in either direction. Here's a few things you need to know first.
Bullish Factors:
-Open Interest Delta at 50%, TRL's dropped to 15%. This suggests MM's are buying, not selling.
-RSI convergence / break above 67k resistance + high volume.
-Macro Liquidation above local high of 70k.
Bearish Factors:
-Resistance / descending trendlines
As you can see there are more confirming factors pointing higher, than lower.
Translation: Shorts are riskier right now.
So here's what I'll be looking for today before taking any trades...
Long Trigger: Retest of local resistance / POC as new low closer to 67k. Expecting this to happen closer to Asian Market open.
Short Trigger: A retest of 70-71k range with low volume, and / or a drop in Open Interest.
Patience is the play today.
Crypto Market sentiment is positive right now after a fundamentally fueled run from 63k this weekend.
The tides are changing.
If you're considering a trade in either direction. Here's a few things you need to know first.
Bullish Factors:
-Open Interest Delta at 50%, TRL's dropped to 15%. This suggests MM's are buying, not selling.
-RSI convergence / break above 67k resistance + high volume.
-Macro Liquidation above local high of 70k.
Bearish Factors:
-Resistance / descending trendlines
As you can see there are more confirming factors pointing higher, than lower.
Translation: Shorts are riskier right now.
So here's what I'll be looking for today before taking any trades...
Long Trigger: Retest of local resistance / POC as new low closer to 67k. Expecting this to happen closer to Asian Market open.
Short Trigger: A retest of 70-71k range with low volume, and / or a drop in Open Interest.
Patience is the play today.
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Trading Plan This Week 💪
Right now, we're in a transition where it's too early to short, and too late to long.
Best practice is to be patient and wait.
Set your targets.
Execute when accordingly.
Here are the ranges I'll be looking for this week / later today...
Short (resistance / liquidation):
BTC @ 70-71.5k
ETH @ 2090-2130
SOL @ 90-92
XRP @ ~1.50
It is MUCH safer to long right now. So unless we see a significant pump soon, waiting for a pullback is a better choice. At this point, I am much I'm more interested in longs, specifically the FVG's.
Longs (bullish back test / FVG):
BTC @ 67-68k
ETH @ 1970-2020
SOL @ 84-86
SUI @ 0.88-0.90
Friendly Reminder: THESE ARE NOT TRADE SIGNALS, simply areas I am considering at a later date. It is important to ALWAYS re-evaluate BTC before entry.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZJDVibFN/
Right now, we're in a transition where it's too early to short, and too late to long.
Best practice is to be patient and wait.
Set your targets.
Execute when accordingly.
Here are the ranges I'll be looking for this week / later today...
Short (resistance / liquidation):
BTC @ 70-71.5k
ETH @ 2090-2130
SOL @ 90-92
XRP @ ~1.50
It is MUCH safer to long right now. So unless we see a significant pump soon, waiting for a pullback is a better choice. At this point, I am much I'm more interested in longs, specifically the FVG's.
Longs (bullish back test / FVG):
BTC @ 67-68k
ETH @ 1970-2020
SOL @ 84-86
SUI @ 0.88-0.90
Friendly Reminder: THESE ARE NOT TRADE SIGNALS, simply areas I am considering at a later date. It is important to ALWAYS re-evaluate BTC before entry.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZJDVibFN/
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$XRP is showing resilience after a solid bounce from the $1.35 support level and is currently testing key resistance at $1.40.
While the technical charts aren't perfect right now in this descending trend, the backend data tells a different story...
Liquidation and Open Interest upwards of $1.50, gives a tentative vote for further upside. Watch for a potential quick retest of $1.36 to fill FVG before next leg up.
As long as Bitcoin holds above $67,000, an upward breakout looks like the most probable path. As XRP is tightening in its range and testing is descending trendline.
I'll look towards averaging in as we get closer to $1.36 - $1.38.
While the technical charts aren't perfect right now in this descending trend, the backend data tells a different story...
Liquidation and Open Interest upwards of $1.50, gives a tentative vote for further upside. Watch for a potential quick retest of $1.36 to fill FVG before next leg up.
As long as Bitcoin holds above $67,000, an upward breakout looks like the most probable path. As XRP is tightening in its range and testing is descending trendline.
I'll look towards averaging in as we get closer to $1.36 - $1.38.
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$BTC Retesting Key Level Support
So far, BTC is very consistent with its rangebound rejections. 70k resistance held strong, no breakout, no moonshot.
CT idiots were raving about 75k+ yesterday...
The truth is, we need more than just 1 green candle to justify a breakout.
If you saw my YouTube analysis yesterday, you'll know I recommended pumping the brakes and to wait for a retest of 66-67k first.
Now that we are here, we need to understand Bitcoin is showing some bearish structure today.
After sweeping a lot of buy-side liquidity at 70k, Bitcoin rejected hard. That last push up created several imbalances, and plenty of retail traders likely chased into it.
From a smart money perspective, the buy-side liquidity’s been cleared, so the next logical target is on the sell-side. We’re currently trading mid-range, which isn’t great for taking new positions or forming strong bias.
However, I still have my eyes on a long in the 66-67k range. But it's safer to wait for a clean reversal after sweeping the 4H closure at 65.8k. If price fails to show strength there, I’ll look for a short on continuation.
So far, BTC is very consistent with its rangebound rejections. 70k resistance held strong, no breakout, no moonshot.
CT idiots were raving about 75k+ yesterday...
The truth is, we need more than just 1 green candle to justify a breakout.
If you saw my YouTube analysis yesterday, you'll know I recommended pumping the brakes and to wait for a retest of 66-67k first.
Now that we are here, we need to understand Bitcoin is showing some bearish structure today.
After sweeping a lot of buy-side liquidity at 70k, Bitcoin rejected hard. That last push up created several imbalances, and plenty of retail traders likely chased into it.
From a smart money perspective, the buy-side liquidity’s been cleared, so the next logical target is on the sell-side. We’re currently trading mid-range, which isn’t great for taking new positions or forming strong bias.
However, I still have my eyes on a long in the 66-67k range. But it's safer to wait for a clean reversal after sweeping the 4H closure at 65.8k. If price fails to show strength there, I’ll look for a short on continuation.
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$BTC Broke Resistance, Rally ensues...
As highlighted yesterday, macro liquidation at 76k suggests a break local range would incentivize the price to sweep that level.
However, this doesn't just mean you FOMO In. There are strategies that work best for situations like these...
First / most appropriate strategy is to wait for a bullish back test of psychological resistance level at $70,000. If Bitcoin maintains above this level (volume / open interest remains high) for 24 hours, its likely going higher.
If you don't want to miss the boat. you can average in, buying now and little bits as the price goes lower.
The alternative / more risky strategy is to short sell, as Bitcoin is currently overextended. However, this approach carries a lot more risk because Bitcoin's volume is high and the flood gates are tentatively open.
Whichever route you take, use good risk management. Always set a SL and trailing Take-Profit.
As highlighted yesterday, macro liquidation at 76k suggests a break local range would incentivize the price to sweep that level.
However, this doesn't just mean you FOMO In. There are strategies that work best for situations like these...
First / most appropriate strategy is to wait for a bullish back test of psychological resistance level at $70,000. If Bitcoin maintains above this level (volume / open interest remains high) for 24 hours, its likely going higher.
If you don't want to miss the boat. you can average in, buying now and little bits as the price goes lower.
The alternative / more risky strategy is to short sell, as Bitcoin is currently overextended. However, this approach carries a lot more risk because Bitcoin's volume is high and the flood gates are tentatively open.
Whichever route you take, use good risk management. Always set a SL and trailing Take-Profit.
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Hope you’re all having a great day! ⭐️
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Quick heads up, a few slots just opened up in Premium. Consider joining, before they are gone.
Join the elite: 🏆
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CryptoCache™
$BTC is halfway to our Target. Still think we see 70k?
$BTC to retest 70k, likely lower
Yesterday CT went bonkers stating we're going to see 300k Bitcoin because we broke above the 70k. 🤦♂️
While it's possible we could go higher soon (84k is best case), Bitcoin has a higher statistical probability of seeing the previous range of 67-70k range before that happens.
Here's the main reason...
Too many breakout traders who used high leverage still haven't secured profits. Getting wrecked because they are listening to CT/YT moon boys.
That's literally the reason why.
There is also a very large 3D liquidation chunk at 70k. Bitcoin is overextended and must pullback to fill its FVG's.
Not to mention MM's love max pain so the previous high of ~69k, or even the POC at 67k makes the most sense.
FYI - We're short from 73k, with partial profit secured and a Tailing Stop activated.
Yesterday CT went bonkers stating we're going to see 300k Bitcoin because we broke above the 70k. 🤦♂️
While it's possible we could go higher soon (84k is best case), Bitcoin has a higher statistical probability of seeing the previous range of 67-70k range before that happens.
Here's the main reason...
Too many breakout traders who used high leverage still haven't secured profits. Getting wrecked because they are listening to CT/YT moon boys.
That's literally the reason why.
There is also a very large 3D liquidation chunk at 70k. Bitcoin is overextended and must pullback to fill its FVG's.
Not to mention MM's love max pain so the previous high of ~69k, or even the POC at 67k makes the most sense.
FYI - We're short from 73k, with partial profit secured and a Tailing Stop activated.
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Got this question in my Discord Community, so I figured I'd share with CT
What are Crypto kill zones?
CKZ's represent high-volatility, institutional trading windows. These windows are known for liquidity grabs (violent swings up or down).
When:
Asian (7 PM–9 PM ET)
London (2 AM–5 AM ET)
New York (8 AM–11 AM ET)
I.e. - avoid trading these windows and you'll live a longer, healthier life.
What are Crypto kill zones?
CKZ's represent high-volatility, institutional trading windows. These windows are known for liquidity grabs (violent swings up or down).
When:
Asian (7 PM–9 PM ET)
London (2 AM–5 AM ET)
New York (8 AM–11 AM ET)
I.e. - avoid trading these windows and you'll live a longer, healthier life.
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CryptoCache™
$BTC to retest 70k, likely lower Yesterday CT went bonkers stating we're going to see 300k Bitcoin because we broke above the 70k. 🤦♂️ While it's possible we could go higher soon (84k is best case), Bitcoin has a higher statistical probability of seeing…
$BTC Near perfect sweep of 3D liquidation
Congrats to my traders who shorted 73k!
As expected, late longs (retail traders) are getting destroyed today.
This comes as no surprise for 2 reasons.
Reason 1: CT/YT is filled with idiots that shill the smallest of pumps.
Reason 2: Confluence (see yesterday post).
So where do we go from here?
Well, we have a solid amount of confluence in the current range, between 67k - 69k.
69k = Previous highs
68.5k = SMA's/ Cloud
67k = POC & Open Interest
Lastly, is True Retail Longs are still high, suggesting MM's are not done yet.
Best case scenario (for now) is to see a very short-term run back into the 69k range.
Scalps only today folks.
Watch them close!
I'll report back later today.
Congrats to my traders who shorted 73k!
As expected, late longs (retail traders) are getting destroyed today.
This comes as no surprise for 2 reasons.
Reason 1: CT/YT is filled with idiots that shill the smallest of pumps.
Reason 2: Confluence (see yesterday post).
So where do we go from here?
Well, we have a solid amount of confluence in the current range, between 67k - 69k.
69k = Previous highs
68.5k = SMA's/ Cloud
67k = POC & Open Interest
Lastly, is True Retail Longs are still high, suggesting MM's are not done yet.
Best case scenario (for now) is to see a very short-term run back into the 69k range.
Scalps only today folks.
Watch them close!
I'll report back later today.
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Here's a few reasons we're likely to see a short-term correction higher this weekend.
True Retail Longs (TRL) are piling up fast, suggesting support in the current range.
While this is normally a bearish sign, increased TRL after a significant correction / liquidation sweep is typically an early sign of reversal. Especially when paired with a sustained Open Interest delta.
Long story short... Market makers are temporarily allowing the price to pump towards the FVG at 70k, before we see another leg down.
Careful shorting the tentative bottom, but also don't get too crazy with longs.
Best practice is to be patient this weekend until this narrative changes.
True Retail Longs (TRL) are piling up fast, suggesting support in the current range.
While this is normally a bearish sign, increased TRL after a significant correction / liquidation sweep is typically an early sign of reversal. Especially when paired with a sustained Open Interest delta.
Long story short... Market makers are temporarily allowing the price to pump towards the FVG at 70k, before we see another leg down.
Careful shorting the tentative bottom, but also don't get too crazy with longs.
Best practice is to be patient this weekend until this narrative changes.
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