Urea with Coal Market Overview 2026-2034
The Urea with Coal market represents an innovative intersection of chemical fertilizer production and thermal energy generation, leveraging the synergies between nitrogen-based fertilizers and coal-derived energy sources. This market exists primarily due to the necessity of optimizing resource utilization in regions where coal remains abundant and cost-effective, particularly in emerging economies with significant agricultural and energy demands. The core value proposition hinges on integrating urea synthesis processes with coal combustion or gasification technologies, enabling both fertilizer manufacturing and power generation within a unified supply chain. This dual-purpose approach not only reduces operational costs but also addresses environmental concerns by enabling cleaner coal utilization through advanced gasification techniques that produce syngas, which can be used for urea synthesis. The market's existence is further reinforced by the strategic push toward energy security and agricultural productivity, especially in countries like India, China, and parts of Southeast Asia, where coal remains a dominant energy source and fertilizer demand is surging due to population growth and food security imperatives.
Currently, the market is experiencing a notable acceleration driven by macroeconomic and industry-specific factors. The resurgence of coal-based energy projects, fueled by geopolitical tensions and the desire for energy independence, has created a fertile environment for integrating urea production with coal utilization. Governments in coal-dependent nations are incentivizing such integrations through subsidies, tax benefits, and regulatory frameworks aimed at reducing reliance on imported fertilizers and energy. Additionally, technological advancements in coal gasificationsuch as entrained-flow and fluidized-bed reactorshave enhanced process efficiencies, making co-production more economically viable. The rising costs of natural gas, especially in regions like Europe and North America, are further incentivizing industries to pivot toward coal-based alternatives for both energy and chemical production. This shift is catalyzing a structural transformation in the supply chain, where integrated plants are becoming the new standard for cost competitiveness and environmental compliance.
Value creation in the Urea with Coal market is concentrated around integrated production facilities that combine coal gasification with urea synthesis. These facilities benefit from economies of scale, reduced transportation costs, and the ability to capitalize on by-products such as sulfur and fly ash, which can be monetized or used for environmental mitigation. Control of this market predominantly resides with large industrial conglomerates and state-owned enterprises that have the capital and technological expertise to develop and operate complex integrated plants. Companies like China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Coal India Limited, and Indian Oil Corporation are leading players, leveraging their extensive coal reserves and existing infrastructure. The future of the market is heavily influenced by structural forces such as technological innovation in gasification, tightening environmental regulations, and the geopolitical landscape that affects coal and fertilizer trade flows. These forces are shaping a landscape where adaptability and technological leadership will determine market dominance.
Industry context reveals a dynamic environment characterized by a transition from traditional, standalone fertilizer and energy sectors toward integrated, resource-efficient models. The global push for decarbonization and cleaner coal technologies is prompting investments in advanced gasification and carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) systems, which are critical to ensuring that coal-based processes meet evolving environmental standards. Macro drivers include automation and digitalization of plant operations, which improve process control and reduce emissions, as well as regul
The Urea with Coal market represents an innovative intersection of chemical fertilizer production and thermal energy generation, leveraging the synergies between nitrogen-based fertilizers and coal-derived energy sources. This market exists primarily due to the necessity of optimizing resource utilization in regions where coal remains abundant and cost-effective, particularly in emerging economies with significant agricultural and energy demands. The core value proposition hinges on integrating urea synthesis processes with coal combustion or gasification technologies, enabling both fertilizer manufacturing and power generation within a unified supply chain. This dual-purpose approach not only reduces operational costs but also addresses environmental concerns by enabling cleaner coal utilization through advanced gasification techniques that produce syngas, which can be used for urea synthesis. The market's existence is further reinforced by the strategic push toward energy security and agricultural productivity, especially in countries like India, China, and parts of Southeast Asia, where coal remains a dominant energy source and fertilizer demand is surging due to population growth and food security imperatives.
Currently, the market is experiencing a notable acceleration driven by macroeconomic and industry-specific factors. The resurgence of coal-based energy projects, fueled by geopolitical tensions and the desire for energy independence, has created a fertile environment for integrating urea production with coal utilization. Governments in coal-dependent nations are incentivizing such integrations through subsidies, tax benefits, and regulatory frameworks aimed at reducing reliance on imported fertilizers and energy. Additionally, technological advancements in coal gasificationsuch as entrained-flow and fluidized-bed reactorshave enhanced process efficiencies, making co-production more economically viable. The rising costs of natural gas, especially in regions like Europe and North America, are further incentivizing industries to pivot toward coal-based alternatives for both energy and chemical production. This shift is catalyzing a structural transformation in the supply chain, where integrated plants are becoming the new standard for cost competitiveness and environmental compliance.
Value creation in the Urea with Coal market is concentrated around integrated production facilities that combine coal gasification with urea synthesis. These facilities benefit from economies of scale, reduced transportation costs, and the ability to capitalize on by-products such as sulfur and fly ash, which can be monetized or used for environmental mitigation. Control of this market predominantly resides with large industrial conglomerates and state-owned enterprises that have the capital and technological expertise to develop and operate complex integrated plants. Companies like China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Coal India Limited, and Indian Oil Corporation are leading players, leveraging their extensive coal reserves and existing infrastructure. The future of the market is heavily influenced by structural forces such as technological innovation in gasification, tightening environmental regulations, and the geopolitical landscape that affects coal and fertilizer trade flows. These forces are shaping a landscape where adaptability and technological leadership will determine market dominance.
Industry context reveals a dynamic environment characterized by a transition from traditional, standalone fertilizer and energy sectors toward integrated, resource-efficient models. The global push for decarbonization and cleaner coal technologies is prompting investments in advanced gasification and carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) systems, which are critical to ensuring that coal-based processes meet evolving environmental standards. Macro drivers include automation and digitalization of plant operations, which improve process control and reduce emissions, as well as regul
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Mexico is seeking to eliminate steel tariffs as part of the USMCA review
The country will also advocate for a regional approach to the automotive industry
Mexico is seeking to have U.S. steel tariffs lifted as part of the review of the USMCA trilateral agreement, according to BNamericas.
On May 27–29, the country’s Ministry of Economy and a delegation from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) discussed issues related to various sectors.
The negotiations are taking place against the backdrop of trade tensions arising from the United States’ imposition of tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum under Section 232. Currently, a 50% tariff is imposed on both products. Meanwhile, the automotive sector pays a 25% tariff, albeit under preferential mechanisms within the USMCA.
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard emphasized that Mexico’s position will be to insist on the removal of these measures.
Ebrard added that Mexico will advocate for a regional approach to the automotive industry, given the high level of production integration in North America and the rules of origin in effect under the agreement.
The parties will hold additional rounds of trade negotiations in June and July.
As a reminder, in late April of this year, Mexico announced the introduction of a rule requiring all federal construction projects to use steel exclusively from domestic companies.
As reported by GMK Center, last spring the country updated its investment plan, which includes measures aimed at increasing domestic production, particularly steel production, in response to U.S. tariffs. In addition, the country began requiring registration for the import of steel products, which entails companies providing data on the mills from which the imported material originates.
The country will also advocate for a regional approach to the automotive industry
Mexico is seeking to have U.S. steel tariffs lifted as part of the review of the USMCA trilateral agreement, according to BNamericas.
On May 27–29, the country’s Ministry of Economy and a delegation from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) discussed issues related to various sectors.
The negotiations are taking place against the backdrop of trade tensions arising from the United States’ imposition of tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum under Section 232. Currently, a 50% tariff is imposed on both products. Meanwhile, the automotive sector pays a 25% tariff, albeit under preferential mechanisms within the USMCA.
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard emphasized that Mexico’s position will be to insist on the removal of these measures.
“As for steel and aluminum, the 50% rate seems unacceptable to us; it has no justification whatsoever. We have already spoken about this; it is nothing new,” he told the press.
Ebrard added that Mexico will advocate for a regional approach to the automotive industry, given the high level of production integration in North America and the rules of origin in effect under the agreement.
The parties will hold additional rounds of trade negotiations in June and July.
As a reminder, in late April of this year, Mexico announced the introduction of a rule requiring all federal construction projects to use steel exclusively from domestic companies.
As reported by GMK Center, last spring the country updated its investment plan, which includes measures aimed at increasing domestic production, particularly steel production, in response to U.S. tariffs. In addition, the country began requiring registration for the import of steel products, which entails companies providing data on the mills from which the imported material originates.
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Russian coal exports to South Korea double in Jan–Apr 2026
Russian coal exports to South Korea surged in January–April 2026 as the country increased coal imports amid energy supply risks.
In January–April 2026, South Korea more than doubled its coal imports from Russia to 8.3 mio t (+4.3 mio t or +107.5% vs. Jan–Apr 2025).
South Korea’s total coal imports in January–April 2026 surged to 38.5 mio t (+6.2 mio t or +19.2% vs. Jan–Apr 2025).
Because of the energy crisis in the Middle East, South Korea is lifting the 80% cap on coal-fired power plant capacity utilization and increasing nuclear power plant capacity utilization from the current 65–70% to 80%. With rising prices and supply risks for imported LNG and oil, coal and nuclear power generation are strengthening their positions in the country’s energy mix.
Furthermore, the upcoming El Nino is expected to bring an unusually hot summer with record-breaking demand for electricity. Combined with the need to replenish reserves ahead of winter and ongoing disruptions in global LNG supplies, this will drive South Korea to sharply ramp up its thermal coal imports. Under these conditions, South Korea will likely be forced to import thermal coal in 2026 at volumes significantly exceeding the levels seen in the first four months.
South Korean coal imports (Jan–Apr 2026):
· Australia: 11.9 mio t (+1.8 mio t or +17.8% y-o-y);
· Indonesia: 8.7 mio t (-0.4 mio t or -4.4% y-o-y);
· Russia: 8.3 mio t (+4.3 mio t or +107.5% y-o-y);
· Canada: 3.7 mio t (+1.1 mio t or +42.3% y-o-y);
· South Africa: 2.1 mio t (+0.3 mio t or +16.7% y-o-y);
· Colombia: 2.1 mio t (+0.4 mio t or +23.5% y-o-y);
· USA: 0.9 mio t (-0.9 mio t or -50.0% y-o-y).
Given the crisis in the Russian coal industry, South Korea remains strategically important due to comparatively higher prices than other key markets like China and India.
The unprofitability of Russian coal exports keeps growing because of expensive logistics and a strong ruble. Still, producers are trying to maintain their market share, owing to the quality of their material and expectations of better conditions in the medium term, including stabilization of global prices after they hit rock bottom, as well as the expected correction of the ruble exchange rate.
Russian coal exports to South Korea surged in January–April 2026 as the country increased coal imports amid energy supply risks.
In January–April 2026, South Korea more than doubled its coal imports from Russia to 8.3 mio t (+4.3 mio t or +107.5% vs. Jan–Apr 2025).
South Korea’s total coal imports in January–April 2026 surged to 38.5 mio t (+6.2 mio t or +19.2% vs. Jan–Apr 2025).
Because of the energy crisis in the Middle East, South Korea is lifting the 80% cap on coal-fired power plant capacity utilization and increasing nuclear power plant capacity utilization from the current 65–70% to 80%. With rising prices and supply risks for imported LNG and oil, coal and nuclear power generation are strengthening their positions in the country’s energy mix.
Furthermore, the upcoming El Nino is expected to bring an unusually hot summer with record-breaking demand for electricity. Combined with the need to replenish reserves ahead of winter and ongoing disruptions in global LNG supplies, this will drive South Korea to sharply ramp up its thermal coal imports. Under these conditions, South Korea will likely be forced to import thermal coal in 2026 at volumes significantly exceeding the levels seen in the first four months.
South Korean coal imports (Jan–Apr 2026):
· Australia: 11.9 mio t (+1.8 mio t or +17.8% y-o-y);
· Indonesia: 8.7 mio t (-0.4 mio t or -4.4% y-o-y);
· Russia: 8.3 mio t (+4.3 mio t or +107.5% y-o-y);
· Canada: 3.7 mio t (+1.1 mio t or +42.3% y-o-y);
· South Africa: 2.1 mio t (+0.3 mio t or +16.7% y-o-y);
· Colombia: 2.1 mio t (+0.4 mio t or +23.5% y-o-y);
· USA: 0.9 mio t (-0.9 mio t or -50.0% y-o-y).
Given the crisis in the Russian coal industry, South Korea remains strategically important due to comparatively higher prices than other key markets like China and India.
The unprofitability of Russian coal exports keeps growing because of expensive logistics and a strong ruble. Still, producers are trying to maintain their market share, owing to the quality of their material and expectations of better conditions in the medium term, including stabilization of global prices after they hit rock bottom, as well as the expected correction of the ruble exchange rate.
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Russian coal exports remain unprofitable despite higher global coal prices
The sharp rise in global coal prices, triggered by the Iran-U.S. conflict failed to lift Russian coal exports into profitable territory, as the positive effect was wiped out by the strengthening ruble and annually rising RZD’s railway tariffs, as well as higher freight rates (due to the situation in the Persian Gulf), increased production costs, and other logistics expenses.
Given these circumstances, exports of thermal coal from Kuzbass are unprofitable on all routes, including to the Far East.
Since 2024, the Russian ruble has appreciated by 17%, and considering the exchange rate dynamics in May 2026, when it reached 71.37 RUR/USD (as of May 29, 2026), the appreciation amounted to 23% (the 2024 level is taken as 100%). Such dynamics have an extremely adverse effect on Russian coal companies on the back of rising production costs and increased expenses for rail transportation of coal.
Even with higher global prices, the strong ruble and rising domestic rail tariffs have put the industry on the brink of bankruptcy.
Coal producers continue to bear fixed costs for mining, maintenance and wages. Idling production would often result in even larger losses than exporting at a loss.
Russian Ministry of energy has warned that the sector’s losses could reach 8.1 billion USD in 2026 if current negative trends persist.
Industry representatives have been calling for a reduction in RZD’s rail tariffs, which they say have become a critical factor, artificially inflating costs.
For Russian coal exports to become profitable, it is necessary not only for the ruble to weaken and global prices to rise, but, above all, for Russian Railways to lower its tariffs.
The sharp rise in global coal prices, triggered by the Iran-U.S. conflict failed to lift Russian coal exports into profitable territory, as the positive effect was wiped out by the strengthening ruble and annually rising RZD’s railway tariffs, as well as higher freight rates (due to the situation in the Persian Gulf), increased production costs, and other logistics expenses.
Given these circumstances, exports of thermal coal from Kuzbass are unprofitable on all routes, including to the Far East.
Since 2024, the Russian ruble has appreciated by 17%, and considering the exchange rate dynamics in May 2026, when it reached 71.37 RUR/USD (as of May 29, 2026), the appreciation amounted to 23% (the 2024 level is taken as 100%). Such dynamics have an extremely adverse effect on Russian coal companies on the back of rising production costs and increased expenses for rail transportation of coal.
Even with higher global prices, the strong ruble and rising domestic rail tariffs have put the industry on the brink of bankruptcy.
Coal producers continue to bear fixed costs for mining, maintenance and wages. Idling production would often result in even larger losses than exporting at a loss.
Russian Ministry of energy has warned that the sector’s losses could reach 8.1 billion USD in 2026 if current negative trends persist.
Industry representatives have been calling for a reduction in RZD’s rail tariffs, which they say have become a critical factor, artificially inflating costs.
For Russian coal exports to become profitable, it is necessary not only for the ruble to weaken and global prices to rise, but, above all, for Russian Railways to lower its tariffs.
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Global coal prices rise on stronger European, Chinese and Australian markets
Global coal prices continued to rise over the past week across Europe, China, Indonesia, and Australia.
Over the past week, the upward trend in the coal market continued: indices rose in Europe; coal became more expensive in China, following the May 22 tragedy; in Australia, prices strengthened for both thermal and metallurgical material.
In the European coal market, spot quotations continued their advance to 128 USD/t. Supportive factors included expectations of higher solid fuel demand during the summer amid gas price volatility, stemming from uncertainty over the US-Iran crisis; physical market deals continued by a major international trader (two deals were recorded this week at 124 and 127 USD/t DES ARA for June delivery); and the Indonesian government’s plans to take control of coal export shipments.
Gas market in Europe remained highly volatile due to periodic exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran despite a previously announced truce, as well as news that Tehran had received an unofficial draft memorandum of understanding with the US under which Iran would commit within a month to restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels, while the US would lift its naval blockade.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub stood at 563.84 USD/1,000 m3 (-8.72 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage increased to 38.8% (+2.1 ppts w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 corrected below 120 USD/t, continuing to hover near its highest levels in 2.5 years. Indices continue to find support from news of Indonesia’s plan to nationalize coal exports. Traditional buyers of Indonesian material may potentially shift to other supply sources. South African 4,800 NAR coal, in particular, competes with Indonesian coal in the key Indian market.
In India, thermal coal buyers continue to shun imports. Several sponge iron producers stated that a sharp drop in their product prices has made imported material somewhat unprofitable, prompting them to gradually scale back purchase volumes.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao rose to 124 USD/t. Coal mining regions in China have stepped up safety inspections following a gas explosion on May 22 at the Liushenyu coal mine (metallurgical coal mine with 1.2 mio t/year capacity) in Shanxi province, which killed 82 people, left two missing, and injured 128.
The government ordered at least 118 enterprises in Shanxi province with total capacity of 134.5 mio t/year, mostly producing metallurgical coal, to suspend operations for safety checks. Similar suspensions and inspections followed in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. Experts estimate that China’s production could decline by 10-15 mio t in June alone. For the full year, coal output could fall 1-2% compared with the 4.83 billion tons mined last year, largely due to a 5-10% drop in coking coal production.
The thermal coal market is not expected to be impacted to the same extent, as China’s central government will continue its policy of ensuring adequate supply during the summer. Thus, the current price rally is likely to be short-lived: most suspended mines are expected to resume operations next week.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports increased to 28.32 mio t (+0.80 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants stood at 13.44 mio t (+0.58 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR climbed to 107 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR strengthened to nearly 65 USD/t. Demand for Indonesian material is rising from Chinese consumers amid tighter safety inspections following the May 22 tragedy in Shanxi.
Market participants continue to analyze Indonesia’s plans to create a state body that will control all coal exports. According to a briefing by Indonesian authorities on May 26, exporters will be able to continue their normal activities from June 1 but must report deals to Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI), providing the organization with all documentation, financial data, and counterparty information. From J
Global coal prices continued to rise over the past week across Europe, China, Indonesia, and Australia.
Over the past week, the upward trend in the coal market continued: indices rose in Europe; coal became more expensive in China, following the May 22 tragedy; in Australia, prices strengthened for both thermal and metallurgical material.
In the European coal market, spot quotations continued their advance to 128 USD/t. Supportive factors included expectations of higher solid fuel demand during the summer amid gas price volatility, stemming from uncertainty over the US-Iran crisis; physical market deals continued by a major international trader (two deals were recorded this week at 124 and 127 USD/t DES ARA for June delivery); and the Indonesian government’s plans to take control of coal export shipments.
Gas market in Europe remained highly volatile due to periodic exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran despite a previously announced truce, as well as news that Tehran had received an unofficial draft memorandum of understanding with the US under which Iran would commit within a month to restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels, while the US would lift its naval blockade.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub stood at 563.84 USD/1,000 m3 (-8.72 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage increased to 38.8% (+2.1 ppts w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 corrected below 120 USD/t, continuing to hover near its highest levels in 2.5 years. Indices continue to find support from news of Indonesia’s plan to nationalize coal exports. Traditional buyers of Indonesian material may potentially shift to other supply sources. South African 4,800 NAR coal, in particular, competes with Indonesian coal in the key Indian market.
In India, thermal coal buyers continue to shun imports. Several sponge iron producers stated that a sharp drop in their product prices has made imported material somewhat unprofitable, prompting them to gradually scale back purchase volumes.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao rose to 124 USD/t. Coal mining regions in China have stepped up safety inspections following a gas explosion on May 22 at the Liushenyu coal mine (metallurgical coal mine with 1.2 mio t/year capacity) in Shanxi province, which killed 82 people, left two missing, and injured 128.
The government ordered at least 118 enterprises in Shanxi province with total capacity of 134.5 mio t/year, mostly producing metallurgical coal, to suspend operations for safety checks. Similar suspensions and inspections followed in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. Experts estimate that China’s production could decline by 10-15 mio t in June alone. For the full year, coal output could fall 1-2% compared with the 4.83 billion tons mined last year, largely due to a 5-10% drop in coking coal production.
The thermal coal market is not expected to be impacted to the same extent, as China’s central government will continue its policy of ensuring adequate supply during the summer. Thus, the current price rally is likely to be short-lived: most suspended mines are expected to resume operations next week.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports increased to 28.32 mio t (+0.80 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants stood at 13.44 mio t (+0.58 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR climbed to 107 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR strengthened to nearly 65 USD/t. Demand for Indonesian material is rising from Chinese consumers amid tighter safety inspections following the May 22 tragedy in Shanxi.
Market participants continue to analyze Indonesia’s plans to create a state body that will control all coal exports. According to a briefing by Indonesian authorities on May 26, exporters will be able to continue their normal activities from June 1 but must report deals to Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI), providing the organization with all documentation, financial data, and counterparty information. From J
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Net losses of Russian coal companies in January-March 2026, according to preliminary data, amounted to 1.1 bln USD, up 0.2 bln USD or 20% y-o-y. The share of unprofitable companies reached 63%, compared to 61% a year earlier. 62 enterprises remain in the red zone, of which 20 have already stopped mining, while the rest are on the verge of halting operations.
Companies’ performance is deteriorating due to several negative factors, including transportation costs, as Russian Railways (RZD) raises tariffs: in 2025, the increase spiked 13.8% (despite official inflation of 5.6%), and in March 2026, a 1% surcharge was introduced, in January 2027 the tariff will be raised by 8%, with further indexation expected.
In addition, the ruble was strengthening again, and bank interest rates remained high, placing significant pressure on coal producers and exporters, while also increasing the debt burden. Debt burden by the end of 2025 reached 18 bln USD (+5.1 bln USD or 40% y-o-y).
Despite this, the government does not plan to extend the deferment on mineral extraction tax (MET) and insurance premium payments beyond April 2026. In this regard, the Ministry of Energy forecasts that losses of Russian coal enterprises will rise to 7 bln USD in 2026, which is 27% higher than in 2025.
Thus, in 2026, the negative trend in the Russian coal industry is intensifying amid rising production costs and ruble appreciation. Additional factors continuing to adversely affect coal companies’ financial results include high rail tariffs and limited rail infrastructure capacity on the Eastern range. Due to Western sanctions, the list of countries available for Russian coal exports remains limited.
Companies’ performance is deteriorating due to several negative factors, including transportation costs, as Russian Railways (RZD) raises tariffs: in 2025, the increase spiked 13.8% (despite official inflation of 5.6%), and in March 2026, a 1% surcharge was introduced, in January 2027 the tariff will be raised by 8%, with further indexation expected.
In addition, the ruble was strengthening again, and bank interest rates remained high, placing significant pressure on coal producers and exporters, while also increasing the debt burden. Debt burden by the end of 2025 reached 18 bln USD (+5.1 bln USD or 40% y-o-y).
Despite this, the government does not plan to extend the deferment on mineral extraction tax (MET) and insurance premium payments beyond April 2026. In this regard, the Ministry of Energy forecasts that losses of Russian coal enterprises will rise to 7 bln USD in 2026, which is 27% higher than in 2025.
Thus, in 2026, the negative trend in the Russian coal industry is intensifying amid rising production costs and ruble appreciation. Additional factors continuing to adversely affect coal companies’ financial results include high rail tariffs and limited rail infrastructure capacity on the Eastern range. Due to Western sanctions, the list of countries available for Russian coal exports remains limited.
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US coal production remained largely unchanged in the week ended May 23, 2026, with output slightly above the previous week but marginally below levels recorded a year earlier.
Year-to-date production continues to track close to 2025 levels despite ongoing market uncertainty.
Estimated US coal production totalled approximately 9.6 million short tons (MMst) in the week ended May 23, 2026, according to the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
US coal production trends by region 20252026
Production was 0.4% higher than the previous week’s estimate, but 0.7% lower than the comparable week in 2025.
Coal production east of the Mississippi River totalled 4.1 MMst, while production west of the Mississippi River reached 5.5 MMst.
On a year-to-date basis, US coal production stood at 205.7 MMst, which is 0.5% below the comparable period in 2025, indicating that overall output remains relatively stable despite regional fluctuations.
The EIA data shows western coal-producing regions continue to account for the largest share of US coal output, while Appalachian and Interior basin production has remained broadly steady over the past 12 months.
Year-to-date production continues to track close to 2025 levels despite ongoing market uncertainty.
Estimated US coal production totalled approximately 9.6 million short tons (MMst) in the week ended May 23, 2026, according to the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
US coal production trends by region 20252026
Production was 0.4% higher than the previous week’s estimate, but 0.7% lower than the comparable week in 2025.
Coal production east of the Mississippi River totalled 4.1 MMst, while production west of the Mississippi River reached 5.5 MMst.
On a year-to-date basis, US coal production stood at 205.7 MMst, which is 0.5% below the comparable period in 2025, indicating that overall output remains relatively stable despite regional fluctuations.
The EIA data shows western coal-producing regions continue to account for the largest share of US coal output, while Appalachian and Interior basin production has remained broadly steady over the past 12 months.
Global coal prices continued to rise over the past week across Europe, China, Indonesia, and Australia.
Over the past week, the upward trend in the coal market continued: indices rose in Europe; coal became more expensive in China, following the May 22 tragedy; in Australia, prices strengthened for both thermal and metallurgical material.
In the European coal market, spot quotations continued their advance to 128 USD/t. Supportive factors included expectations of higher solid fuel demand during the summer amid gas price volatility, stemming from uncertainty over the US-Iran crisis; physical market deals continued by a major international trader (two deals were recorded this week at 124 and 127 USD/t DES ARA for June delivery); and the Indonesian government’s plans to take control of coal export shipments.
Gas market in Europe remained highly volatile due to periodic exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran despite a previously announced truce, as well as news that Tehran had received an unofficial draft memorandum of understanding with the US under which Iran would commit within a month to restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels, while the US would lift its naval blockade.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub stood at 563.84 USD/1,000 m3 (-8.72 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage increased to 38.8% (+2.1 ppts w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 corrected below 120 USD/t, continuing to hover near its highest levels in 2.5 years. Indices continue to find support from news of Indonesia’s plan to nationalize coal exports. Traditional buyers of Indonesian material may potentially shift to other supply sources. South African 4,800 NAR coal, in particular, competes with Indonesian coal in the key Indian market.
In India, thermal coal buyers continue to shun imports. Several sponge iron producers stated that a sharp drop in their product prices has made imported material somewhat unprofitable, prompting them to gradually scale back purchase volumes.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao rose to 124 USD/t. Coal mining regions in China have stepped up safety inspections following a gas explosion on May 22 at the Liushenyu coal mine (metallurgical coal mine with 1.2 mio t/year capacity) in Shanxi province, which killed 82 people, left two missing, and injured 128.
The government ordered at least 118 enterprises in Shanxi province with total capacity of 134.5 mio t/year, mostly producing metallurgical coal, to suspend operations for safety checks. Similar suspensions and inspections followed in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. Experts estimate that China’s production could decline by 10-15 mio t in June alone. For the full year, coal output could fall 1-2% compared with the 4.83 billion tons mined last year, largely due to a 5-10% drop in coking coal production.
The thermal coal market is not expected to be impacted to the same extent, as China’s central government will continue its policy of ensuring adequate supply during the summer. Thus, the current price rally is likely to be short-lived: most suspended mines are expected to resume operations next week.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports increased to 28.32 mio t (+0.80 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants stood at 13.44 mio t (+0.58 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR climbed to 107 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR strengthened to nearly 65 USD/t. Demand for Indonesian material is rising from Chinese consumers amid tighter safety inspections following the May 22 tragedy in Shanxi.
Market participants continue to analyze Indonesia’s plans to create a state body that will control all coal exports. According to a briefing by Indonesian authorities on May 26, exporters will be able to continue their normal activities from June 1 but must report deals to Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI), providing the organization with all documentation, financial data, and counterparty information. From January 01, 2027, DSI is expected to take over as the official exporter for con
Over the past week, the upward trend in the coal market continued: indices rose in Europe; coal became more expensive in China, following the May 22 tragedy; in Australia, prices strengthened for both thermal and metallurgical material.
In the European coal market, spot quotations continued their advance to 128 USD/t. Supportive factors included expectations of higher solid fuel demand during the summer amid gas price volatility, stemming from uncertainty over the US-Iran crisis; physical market deals continued by a major international trader (two deals were recorded this week at 124 and 127 USD/t DES ARA for June delivery); and the Indonesian government’s plans to take control of coal export shipments.
Gas market in Europe remained highly volatile due to periodic exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran despite a previously announced truce, as well as news that Tehran had received an unofficial draft memorandum of understanding with the US under which Iran would commit within a month to restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels, while the US would lift its naval blockade.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub stood at 563.84 USD/1,000 m3 (-8.72 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage increased to 38.8% (+2.1 ppts w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 corrected below 120 USD/t, continuing to hover near its highest levels in 2.5 years. Indices continue to find support from news of Indonesia’s plan to nationalize coal exports. Traditional buyers of Indonesian material may potentially shift to other supply sources. South African 4,800 NAR coal, in particular, competes with Indonesian coal in the key Indian market.
In India, thermal coal buyers continue to shun imports. Several sponge iron producers stated that a sharp drop in their product prices has made imported material somewhat unprofitable, prompting them to gradually scale back purchase volumes.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao rose to 124 USD/t. Coal mining regions in China have stepped up safety inspections following a gas explosion on May 22 at the Liushenyu coal mine (metallurgical coal mine with 1.2 mio t/year capacity) in Shanxi province, which killed 82 people, left two missing, and injured 128.
The government ordered at least 118 enterprises in Shanxi province with total capacity of 134.5 mio t/year, mostly producing metallurgical coal, to suspend operations for safety checks. Similar suspensions and inspections followed in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. Experts estimate that China’s production could decline by 10-15 mio t in June alone. For the full year, coal output could fall 1-2% compared with the 4.83 billion tons mined last year, largely due to a 5-10% drop in coking coal production.
The thermal coal market is not expected to be impacted to the same extent, as China’s central government will continue its policy of ensuring adequate supply during the summer. Thus, the current price rally is likely to be short-lived: most suspended mines are expected to resume operations next week.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports increased to 28.32 mio t (+0.80 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants stood at 13.44 mio t (+0.58 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR climbed to 107 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR strengthened to nearly 65 USD/t. Demand for Indonesian material is rising from Chinese consumers amid tighter safety inspections following the May 22 tragedy in Shanxi.
Market participants continue to analyze Indonesia’s plans to create a state body that will control all coal exports. According to a briefing by Indonesian authorities on May 26, exporters will be able to continue their normal activities from June 1 but must report deals to Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI), providing the organization with all documentation, financial data, and counterparty information. From January 01, 2027, DSI is expected to take over as the official exporter for con
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Indonesian coal demand has surged to a record monthly high even as the government attempts to curb domestic coal production.
New data suggests growing demand from smelters, power generation and downstream processing industries is tightening the domestic market and reshaping coal flows across the country
Indonesia is recording its highest-ever monthly coal discharge volume, highlighting the growing strength of domestic coal demand despite government efforts to reduce production.
According to DBX Commodities, coal discharge volumes reached 3,203 kT in May 2026, representing an all-time high and standing 163% above the five-year seasonal average.
The trend comes as Jakarta seeks to reduce coal output to approximately 600 million tonnes in 2026, around 24% below last year’s production levels, in an effort to support coal prices following a period of oversupply.
However, domestic demand is expanding rapidly. Coal consumers that are unable to secure sufficient local supply are increasingly competing for available volumes, while growing industrial activity continues to lift consumption.
A key driver is Indonesia’s downstream minerals strategy. The country’s 2020 nickel ore export ban triggered significant investment in domestic smelting capacity, creating a growing appetite for coal. Nickel and metals processing operations now account for an estimated 31% of domestic coal consumption, with additional demand expected from ongoing industrial expansion and power sector growth.
The result is a striking contradiction. While authorities are attempting to restrict supply to support export prices, rising domestic demand is simultaneously pushing coal volumes through the local market at record levels.
The latest data highlights the increasing importance of Indonesia’s industrial sector in shaping coal demand trends and suggests that domestic consumption could become an even more significant factor in the country’s coal market over the coming years.
New data suggests growing demand from smelters, power generation and downstream processing industries is tightening the domestic market and reshaping coal flows across the country
Indonesia is recording its highest-ever monthly coal discharge volume, highlighting the growing strength of domestic coal demand despite government efforts to reduce production.
According to DBX Commodities, coal discharge volumes reached 3,203 kT in May 2026, representing an all-time high and standing 163% above the five-year seasonal average.
The trend comes as Jakarta seeks to reduce coal output to approximately 600 million tonnes in 2026, around 24% below last year’s production levels, in an effort to support coal prices following a period of oversupply.
However, domestic demand is expanding rapidly. Coal consumers that are unable to secure sufficient local supply are increasingly competing for available volumes, while growing industrial activity continues to lift consumption.
A key driver is Indonesia’s downstream minerals strategy. The country’s 2020 nickel ore export ban triggered significant investment in domestic smelting capacity, creating a growing appetite for coal. Nickel and metals processing operations now account for an estimated 31% of domestic coal consumption, with additional demand expected from ongoing industrial expansion and power sector growth.
The result is a striking contradiction. While authorities are attempting to restrict supply to support export prices, rising domestic demand is simultaneously pushing coal volumes through the local market at record levels.
The latest data highlights the increasing importance of Indonesia’s industrial sector in shaping coal demand trends and suggests that domestic consumption could become an even more significant factor in the country’s coal market over the coming years.
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Asian coal demand is set to increase sharply as LNG supply disruptions and higher gas prices force utilities across the region to rely more heavily on coal-fired generation. While many countries remain committed to long-term energy transition goals, the latest market analysis suggests coal continues to play a critical role when energy security comes under pressure.
According to new research by Rystad Energy, Asia-Pacific thermal coal consumption could increase significantly over the remainder of the decade, with around half of the additional demand expected to occur in 2026 alone. The increase is being driven by tighter LNG markets following damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and the resulting reduction in LNG exports to Asia.
The analysis estimates that LNG supply disruptions could leave Asia facing a gas shortfall of around 35 million tonnes this year. As utilities seek alternative sources of power generation, existing coal-fired plants are being dispatched more frequently, particularly in gas-dependent economies across Northeast and Southeast Asia.
The report argues that the shift is not the result of a broader policy reversal or a renewed wave of coal investment. Instead, it reflects the practical realities of maintaining reliable electricity supplies when gas markets become constrained. In several countries, regulatory limits on coal plant utilisation have been relaxed, allowing operators to increase output from existing assets.
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are expected to account for a significant share of the additional coal demand, while Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines are also projected to increase coal consumption as utilities respond to tighter gas balances. China is expected to remain comparatively insulated due to the relatively limited role of gas in its power sector.
The findings reinforce a theme that has emerged repeatedly during recent energy market disruptions: coal remains an important backstop for electricity systems when alternative fuel supplies become unavailable or prohibitively expensive. While renewable capacity continues to expand across Asia, the report notes that coal is still frequently called upon to support power systems during periods of market stress.
For coal producers and traders, the key question will be whether the current increase in demand remains a temporary response to LNG market disruption or evolves into a longer-lasting shift in fuel consumption patterns. For now, the evidence suggests the market response is being driven by energy security concerns rather than any fundamental change in long-term policy direction.
According to new research by Rystad Energy, Asia-Pacific thermal coal consumption could increase significantly over the remainder of the decade, with around half of the additional demand expected to occur in 2026 alone. The increase is being driven by tighter LNG markets following damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and the resulting reduction in LNG exports to Asia.
The analysis estimates that LNG supply disruptions could leave Asia facing a gas shortfall of around 35 million tonnes this year. As utilities seek alternative sources of power generation, existing coal-fired plants are being dispatched more frequently, particularly in gas-dependent economies across Northeast and Southeast Asia.
The report argues that the shift is not the result of a broader policy reversal or a renewed wave of coal investment. Instead, it reflects the practical realities of maintaining reliable electricity supplies when gas markets become constrained. In several countries, regulatory limits on coal plant utilisation have been relaxed, allowing operators to increase output from existing assets.
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are expected to account for a significant share of the additional coal demand, while Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines are also projected to increase coal consumption as utilities respond to tighter gas balances. China is expected to remain comparatively insulated due to the relatively limited role of gas in its power sector.
The findings reinforce a theme that has emerged repeatedly during recent energy market disruptions: coal remains an important backstop for electricity systems when alternative fuel supplies become unavailable or prohibitively expensive. While renewable capacity continues to expand across Asia, the report notes that coal is still frequently called upon to support power systems during periods of market stress.
For coal producers and traders, the key question will be whether the current increase in demand remains a temporary response to LNG market disruption or evolves into a longer-lasting shift in fuel consumption patterns. For now, the evidence suggests the market response is being driven by energy security concerns rather than any fundamental change in long-term policy direction.
Global coal prices declined over the past week amid weaker sentiment across major coal markets.
Negative sentiment prevailed in the coal market over the past week: indices in Europe declined significantly; coal in China remained unchanged; in Australia, high-CV thermal and metallurgical coal became cheaper.
In the European coal market, the downward movement intensified over the past week. Quotations fell below 118 USD/t. Pressure on coal came from a sharp drop in gas and oil prices of nearly 20% following the announcement of a US-Iran agreement with the signing of a memorandum of understanding that allowed for the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal helped ease concerns over potential energy supply disruptions, though the US president warned that military action could resume if Iran fails to meet its commitments.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub fell to 487.14 USD/1,000 m3 (-73.63 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage increased to 45% (+2 ppts w-o-w), notably below last year’s level of 53%.
South African High-CV 6,000 dropped below 108 USD/t, following European quotations. Market participants refrained from trading amid volatility. Interest in South African coal from India remained limited due to weak sponge iron prices over the past six weeks. Meanwhile, rail deliveries of coal for export were recovering after Transnet completed repairs on rail lines damaged on June 8 by a derailment. Both lines were reopened late last week.
Exports through the RBCT terminal in May rose 13% month-on-month. However, June volumes are expected to be lower due to the derailment. Rail deliveries were suspended for approximately four days, causing deliveries to the RBCT terminal to fall significantly below the norm (1 mio t per week). Still, RBCT could ship around 62 mio t for export for the full year (+7.5% vs. 2025), exceeding the 60 mio t target.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao remained flat at 127 USD/t due to persistent buyer resistance to higher prices, which led to reduced activity and limited transactions, although suppliers remained confident about mid-summer demand.
Under long-term thermal coal contracts, daily consumption and procurement volumes continued to rise alongside higher generation loads. Overall, trader sentiment was mixed. Some participants maintained high price expectations, supported by tightening supply at the mining level and expectations of peak seasonal demand. Conversely, others were increasingly inclined to sell due to rising inventories, sufficient availability of prompt-delivery import cargoes, and falling import coal prices.
On June 15, Chinese authorities mandated that nine key coal-consuming sectors (power generators, steel, aluminum, cement producers, etc.) carry out upgrades in 2026–2028 to improve energy efficiency by an average of 20%. The goal is to reduce coal consumption by 100 mio t/year and cut CO₂ emissions. Inefficient capacity is expected to be phased out gradually.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports edged down to 28.33 mio t (-0.11 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants stood at 13.97 mio t (+0.24 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR rose above 109 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR strengthened to nearly 67.5 USD/t. Demand for Indonesian material from Chinese consumers is rising amid tighter safety inspections, following the May 22 tragedy in Shanxi.
The upward trend in Indonesian material quotations continues. However, price gains are slowing alongside demand in India and China, where coal supply and inventory levels are high.
Indonesian coal exports recovered over the past week thanks to increased shipments to India and other countries, while exports to China remained broadly stable. Loading in Kalimantan and Sumatra also remained relatively smooth. Preliminary data shows exports reached 8.8 mio t (+14% w-o-w and +6% y-o-y), above the 24-week average of 8.4 mio t. In the first 24 weeks of 2026, Indonesia shipped 202 mio t of coal (-18 mio t or -8% y-o-y).
Australian High-CV 6,000 fell to 141 USD/t, retr
Negative sentiment prevailed in the coal market over the past week: indices in Europe declined significantly; coal in China remained unchanged; in Australia, high-CV thermal and metallurgical coal became cheaper.
In the European coal market, the downward movement intensified over the past week. Quotations fell below 118 USD/t. Pressure on coal came from a sharp drop in gas and oil prices of nearly 20% following the announcement of a US-Iran agreement with the signing of a memorandum of understanding that allowed for the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal helped ease concerns over potential energy supply disruptions, though the US president warned that military action could resume if Iran fails to meet its commitments.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub fell to 487.14 USD/1,000 m3 (-73.63 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage increased to 45% (+2 ppts w-o-w), notably below last year’s level of 53%.
South African High-CV 6,000 dropped below 108 USD/t, following European quotations. Market participants refrained from trading amid volatility. Interest in South African coal from India remained limited due to weak sponge iron prices over the past six weeks. Meanwhile, rail deliveries of coal for export were recovering after Transnet completed repairs on rail lines damaged on June 8 by a derailment. Both lines were reopened late last week.
Exports through the RBCT terminal in May rose 13% month-on-month. However, June volumes are expected to be lower due to the derailment. Rail deliveries were suspended for approximately four days, causing deliveries to the RBCT terminal to fall significantly below the norm (1 mio t per week). Still, RBCT could ship around 62 mio t for export for the full year (+7.5% vs. 2025), exceeding the 60 mio t target.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao remained flat at 127 USD/t due to persistent buyer resistance to higher prices, which led to reduced activity and limited transactions, although suppliers remained confident about mid-summer demand.
Under long-term thermal coal contracts, daily consumption and procurement volumes continued to rise alongside higher generation loads. Overall, trader sentiment was mixed. Some participants maintained high price expectations, supported by tightening supply at the mining level and expectations of peak seasonal demand. Conversely, others were increasingly inclined to sell due to rising inventories, sufficient availability of prompt-delivery import cargoes, and falling import coal prices.
On June 15, Chinese authorities mandated that nine key coal-consuming sectors (power generators, steel, aluminum, cement producers, etc.) carry out upgrades in 2026–2028 to improve energy efficiency by an average of 20%. The goal is to reduce coal consumption by 100 mio t/year and cut CO₂ emissions. Inefficient capacity is expected to be phased out gradually.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports edged down to 28.33 mio t (-0.11 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants stood at 13.97 mio t (+0.24 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR rose above 109 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR strengthened to nearly 67.5 USD/t. Demand for Indonesian material from Chinese consumers is rising amid tighter safety inspections, following the May 22 tragedy in Shanxi.
The upward trend in Indonesian material quotations continues. However, price gains are slowing alongside demand in India and China, where coal supply and inventory levels are high.
Indonesian coal exports recovered over the past week thanks to increased shipments to India and other countries, while exports to China remained broadly stable. Loading in Kalimantan and Sumatra also remained relatively smooth. Preliminary data shows exports reached 8.8 mio t (+14% w-o-w and +6% y-o-y), above the 24-week average of 8.4 mio t. In the first 24 weeks of 2026, Indonesia shipped 202 mio t of coal (-18 mio t or -8% y-o-y).
Australian High-CV 6,000 fell to 141 USD/t, retr
Kuzbass coal production declined in January-May 2026 amid rising losses and logistics pressure.
Under the Ministry of Coal Industry of Kuzbass, in January-May 2026, coal mining enterprises in Kuzbass produced 77.7 mio t (-4.1 mio t or -5.0% vs. Jan-May 2025).
Export supplies from Kuzbass in January-May 2026 totaled 45.5 mio t (+1.9 mio t or +4.4% vs. Jan-May 2025).
The fall in global prices, coupled with a rise in production costs and logistics expenses, resulted in increased losses. The share of unprofitable companies reached 63%, compared to 61% a year earlier. 62 enterprises remain in the red zone, of which 20 have already stopped mining, while the rest are on the verge of halting operations.
The crisis in the coal industry, on the back of sanctions, high railway tariffs, firming ruble as well as rising costs and logistical constraints, will further adversely affect the production and supplies of high-quality Russian coal to the global market in 2026.
Under the Ministry of Coal Industry of Kuzbass, in January-May 2026, coal mining enterprises in Kuzbass produced 77.7 mio t (-4.1 mio t or -5.0% vs. Jan-May 2025).
Export supplies from Kuzbass in January-May 2026 totaled 45.5 mio t (+1.9 mio t or +4.4% vs. Jan-May 2025).
The fall in global prices, coupled with a rise in production costs and logistics expenses, resulted in increased losses. The share of unprofitable companies reached 63%, compared to 61% a year earlier. 62 enterprises remain in the red zone, of which 20 have already stopped mining, while the rest are on the verge of halting operations.
The crisis in the coal industry, on the back of sanctions, high railway tariffs, firming ruble as well as rising costs and logistical constraints, will further adversely affect the production and supplies of high-quality Russian coal to the global market in 2026.
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In its latest metallurgical coal market update, McCloskey highlighted how developments in China drove sharp swings in both futures and physical markets, prompting renewed interest in seaborne supply and supporting higher prices for premium hard coking coal.
McCloskey reported that its assessment for low-volatile coal MCC1 rose by $3.60/t on the week to $243.00/t FOB Australia, while MCC4 increased by $18.15/t to $261.15/t CFR China. Market direction was heavily influenced by developments in China, where Dalian Commodity Exchange coking coal futures initially weakened before rebounding later in the week.
Early pressure came after participants interpreted comments from Shaanxi province on securing summer coal supply as a possible signal of broader coal output support. However, traders later noted that Shaanxi is mainly a thermal coal-producing province, while domestic prime hard low-volatile coking coal supply remained tight. As sentiment softened, offers became limited and traders adopted a wait-and-see approach rather than selling cargoes aggressively.
The market then regained momentum after participants shared reports of a mining accident at a premium low-volatile operation in Shanxi. Although no official confirmation had been issued at the time of reporting, the news increased Chinese interest in seaborne premium hard coking coal. Buyers were understood to favour on-the-water or nearby loading cargoes, reflecting concern over domestic availability and uncertainty around future production recovery.
In the secondary market, six Panamax cargoes of prime hard material were understood to be available, including premium low-volatile and premium mid-volatile brands for late-June and July loading. Chinese buyers were reportedly open to negotiations around $265.00/t CFR China for Australian material, though laycan timing remained a key factor.
Domestic Chinese prices also strengthened, with Shanxi Anze premium low-sulphur coal rising to RMB1,980/t ex-plant including VAT. Stricter safety inspections in parts of Shanxi supported broader price gains, while some East China steelmakers faced reduced deliveries of term-contracted coal and turned to spot supply.
At the same time, buying interest for second-tier coals was limited by futures corrections and continued strong Mongolian supply. In the Atlantic basin, demand remained mixed, with some interest from South America and China for Colombian mid-vol coal, while European prompt demand stayed subdued amid logistics constraints and weaker steel production.
McCloskey reported that its assessment for low-volatile coal MCC1 rose by $3.60/t on the week to $243.00/t FOB Australia, while MCC4 increased by $18.15/t to $261.15/t CFR China. Market direction was heavily influenced by developments in China, where Dalian Commodity Exchange coking coal futures initially weakened before rebounding later in the week.
Early pressure came after participants interpreted comments from Shaanxi province on securing summer coal supply as a possible signal of broader coal output support. However, traders later noted that Shaanxi is mainly a thermal coal-producing province, while domestic prime hard low-volatile coking coal supply remained tight. As sentiment softened, offers became limited and traders adopted a wait-and-see approach rather than selling cargoes aggressively.
The market then regained momentum after participants shared reports of a mining accident at a premium low-volatile operation in Shanxi. Although no official confirmation had been issued at the time of reporting, the news increased Chinese interest in seaborne premium hard coking coal. Buyers were understood to favour on-the-water or nearby loading cargoes, reflecting concern over domestic availability and uncertainty around future production recovery.
In the secondary market, six Panamax cargoes of prime hard material were understood to be available, including premium low-volatile and premium mid-volatile brands for late-June and July loading. Chinese buyers were reportedly open to negotiations around $265.00/t CFR China for Australian material, though laycan timing remained a key factor.
Domestic Chinese prices also strengthened, with Shanxi Anze premium low-sulphur coal rising to RMB1,980/t ex-plant including VAT. Stricter safety inspections in parts of Shanxi supported broader price gains, while some East China steelmakers faced reduced deliveries of term-contracted coal and turned to spot supply.
At the same time, buying interest for second-tier coals was limited by futures corrections and continued strong Mongolian supply. In the Atlantic basin, demand remained mixed, with some interest from South America and China for Colombian mid-vol coal, while European prompt demand stayed subdued amid logistics constraints and weaker steel production.
Global coal prices showed mixed dynamics over the past week, with European indices continuing to recover, Chinese coal prices softening, Indonesian coal facing weak demand, and Australian thermal coal moving lower.
Mixed dynamics persisted in the coal market over the past week: indices in Europe edged higher; coal in China became cheaper; in Australia, thermal material prices fell, while metallurgical coal quotations showed divergent movements.
In the European coal market, the recovery continued with quotations climbing to 124 USD/t. Coal found support from above-normal temperatures in Europe, which reduced nuclear generation as warming river waters limited cooling capacity for reactors, while electricity prices climbed to multi-month highs due to air conditioning loads. Further temperature increases are forecast for next week.
German electricity prices rose to an average of 158 EUR/MWh, compared with 147.31 EUR/MWh last week. Renewables accounted for 56% of the mix versus 65% a week earlier, while the share of fossil fuels rose from 34% to 44%. Margins for both coal and gas-fired power plants remained positive and increased over the past week.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub, amid the heatwave and exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran, rose over the week to 523.79 USD/1,000 m3 (+46.70 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage rose to 49% (+2 ppts w-o-w), 10 ppts below last year’s level of 59%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals edged up to 3.93 mio t (+0.04 mio t w-o-w), as low water levels on sections of the Rhine River constrained inland logistics and reduced barge capacity by more than half.
South African High-CV 6,000 rose following the European market to 107-108 USD/t. Mid-CV material hit a 4-month low, falling below 88 USD/t, as demand from Indian DRI (sponge iron) producers — historically among the most important buyers of South African mid-CV coal — weakened due to high costs, rupee depreciation, and improved availability of domestic coal in India.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao fell to 124 USD/t, driven by rising inventories at power plants and ports, slower trading activity, and falling import prices. Power plants are well-supplied with coal through long-term contracts and imports, while consumption remains relatively low due to cool weather and high hydropower output. This suggests the potential for significant price gains may be far lower than previously expected, barring an extremely hot spell.
According to the five-year energy sector development plan for 2026–2030 published this week, China aims to build a low-carbon energy system that is reliable and efficient. Coal and oil demand is expected to peak within the next five years, after which they will gradually transition to backup energy sources.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports increased to 28.83 mio t (+0.37 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants stood at 14.71 mio t (+0.39 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR fell to 107 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR dropped below 65 USD/t, reflecting high inventories in China and persistent rainy weather that did not support active import shipments during the peak summer season.
Indonesian-origin coal is being offered at a premium and is meeting resistance from Chinese and Indian buyers due to ample inventories (physical market deals remain limited), so further downside correction is possible to attract buyers. Some Chinese utilities are even delaying spot purchases for July-August in anticipation of lower prices. Demand from Vietnam also proved limited.
Indonesia raised its thermal coal reference prices (HBA index) across all grades for the first half of July for the sixth consecutive time, despite weakening demand.
Australian High-CV 6,000 fell to 129 USD/t amid easing geopolitical tensions, prompting buyers to adopt a wait-and-see stance. Most inquiries from China came in at discounts or at market prices.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index rose to 244 USD/t, supported by renewed buyer interest, though sentiment remained wea
Mixed dynamics persisted in the coal market over the past week: indices in Europe edged higher; coal in China became cheaper; in Australia, thermal material prices fell, while metallurgical coal quotations showed divergent movements.
In the European coal market, the recovery continued with quotations climbing to 124 USD/t. Coal found support from above-normal temperatures in Europe, which reduced nuclear generation as warming river waters limited cooling capacity for reactors, while electricity prices climbed to multi-month highs due to air conditioning loads. Further temperature increases are forecast for next week.
German electricity prices rose to an average of 158 EUR/MWh, compared with 147.31 EUR/MWh last week. Renewables accounted for 56% of the mix versus 65% a week earlier, while the share of fossil fuels rose from 34% to 44%. Margins for both coal and gas-fired power plants remained positive and increased over the past week.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub, amid the heatwave and exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran, rose over the week to 523.79 USD/1,000 m3 (+46.70 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage rose to 49% (+2 ppts w-o-w), 10 ppts below last year’s level of 59%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals edged up to 3.93 mio t (+0.04 mio t w-o-w), as low water levels on sections of the Rhine River constrained inland logistics and reduced barge capacity by more than half.
South African High-CV 6,000 rose following the European market to 107-108 USD/t. Mid-CV material hit a 4-month low, falling below 88 USD/t, as demand from Indian DRI (sponge iron) producers — historically among the most important buyers of South African mid-CV coal — weakened due to high costs, rupee depreciation, and improved availability of domestic coal in India.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao fell to 124 USD/t, driven by rising inventories at power plants and ports, slower trading activity, and falling import prices. Power plants are well-supplied with coal through long-term contracts and imports, while consumption remains relatively low due to cool weather and high hydropower output. This suggests the potential for significant price gains may be far lower than previously expected, barring an extremely hot spell.
According to the five-year energy sector development plan for 2026–2030 published this week, China aims to build a low-carbon energy system that is reliable and efficient. Coal and oil demand is expected to peak within the next five years, after which they will gradually transition to backup energy sources.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports increased to 28.83 mio t (+0.37 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants stood at 14.71 mio t (+0.39 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR fell to 107 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR dropped below 65 USD/t, reflecting high inventories in China and persistent rainy weather that did not support active import shipments during the peak summer season.
Indonesian-origin coal is being offered at a premium and is meeting resistance from Chinese and Indian buyers due to ample inventories (physical market deals remain limited), so further downside correction is possible to attract buyers. Some Chinese utilities are even delaying spot purchases for July-August in anticipation of lower prices. Demand from Vietnam also proved limited.
Indonesia raised its thermal coal reference prices (HBA index) across all grades for the first half of July for the sixth consecutive time, despite weakening demand.
Australian High-CV 6,000 fell to 129 USD/t amid easing geopolitical tensions, prompting buyers to adopt a wait-and-see stance. Most inquiries from China came in at discounts or at market prices.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index rose to 244 USD/t, supported by renewed buyer interest, though sentiment remained wea
PJM electricity generation during the first major U.S. heat wave of summer 2026 relied overwhelmingly on dispatchable power sources, with coal and natural gas providing the additional generation needed as electricity demand surged to near-record levels.
The first major heat wave of the 2026 U.S. summer pushed electricity demand across the PJM Interconnection close to record levels, providing another real-world test of how one of the world’s largest electricity markets responds under extreme conditions.
Serving around 67 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia, PJM recorded demand approaching 160 GW, with a preliminary peak of around 163 GW on 2 July—just below the system’s all-time record set during the 2006 heat wave.
The data shows that dispatchable generation carried almost all of the additional load.
According to the analysis, nuclear, coal and natural gas together supplied around 88% of total generation during the heat wave. Natural gas averaged approximately 55 GW, while coal ave
The first major heat wave of the 2026 U.S. summer pushed electricity demand across the PJM Interconnection close to record levels, providing another real-world test of how one of the world’s largest electricity markets responds under extreme conditions.
Serving around 67 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia, PJM recorded demand approaching 160 GW, with a preliminary peak of around 163 GW on 2 July—just below the system’s all-time record set during the 2006 heat wave.
The data shows that dispatchable generation carried almost all of the additional load.
According to the analysis, nuclear, coal and natural gas together supplied around 88% of total generation during the heat wave. Natural gas averaged approximately 55 GW, while coal ave
Russian coal exports are gaining support from South Korean demand as the country increases coal and nuclear power generation.
In January–May 2026, South Korea doubled its coal imports from Russia to 10.2 mio t (+5.0 mio t or +96.2% vs. Jan–May 2025).
South Korea’s total coal imports in January–May 2026 surged to 46.8 mio t (+7.6 mio t or +19.4% vs. Jan–May 2025).
Because of the energy crisis in the Middle East, South Korea is lifting the 80% cap on coal-fired power plant capacity utilization and increasing nuclear power plant capacity utilization from the current 65–70% to 80%. With rising prices and supply risks for imported LNG and oil, coal and nuclear power generation are strengthening their positions in the country’s energy mix.
Furthermore, El Nino is expected to bring an unusually hot summer with record-breaking demand for electricity. Combined with the need to replenish reserves ahead of winter and ongoing disruptions in global LNG supplies, this will drive South Korea to sharply ramp up its thermal coal imports. Under these conditions, South Korea will likely be forced to import thermal coal in 2026 at volumes significantly exceeding the levels seen in the first five months.
South Korean coal imports (Jan–May 2026):
· Australia: 15.3 mio t (+3.0 mio t or +24.4% y-o-y);
· Russia: 10.2 mio t (+5.0 mio t or +96.2% y-o-y);
· Indonesia: 10.1 mio t (-0.2 mio t or -1.9% y-o-y);
· Canada: 4.6 mio t (+1.1 mio t or +31.4% y-o-y);
· South Africa: 2.3 mio t (+0.3 mio t or +15.0% y-o-y);
· Colombia: 2.1 mio t (-0.3 mio t or -12.5% y-o-y);
· USA: 1.1 mio t (-1.0 mio t or -47.6% y-o-y).
Given the crisis in the Russian coal industry, South Korea remains strategically important due to comparatively higher prices than other key markets like China and India.
The unprofitability of Russian coal exports keeps growing because of expensive logistics and a strong ruble. Still, producers are trying to maintain their market share, owing to the quality of their material and expectations of better conditions in the medium term, including stabilization of global prices after they hit rock bottom, as well as the expected correction of the ruble exchange rate.
In January–May 2026, South Korea doubled its coal imports from Russia to 10.2 mio t (+5.0 mio t or +96.2% vs. Jan–May 2025).
South Korea’s total coal imports in January–May 2026 surged to 46.8 mio t (+7.6 mio t or +19.4% vs. Jan–May 2025).
Because of the energy crisis in the Middle East, South Korea is lifting the 80% cap on coal-fired power plant capacity utilization and increasing nuclear power plant capacity utilization from the current 65–70% to 80%. With rising prices and supply risks for imported LNG and oil, coal and nuclear power generation are strengthening their positions in the country’s energy mix.
Furthermore, El Nino is expected to bring an unusually hot summer with record-breaking demand for electricity. Combined with the need to replenish reserves ahead of winter and ongoing disruptions in global LNG supplies, this will drive South Korea to sharply ramp up its thermal coal imports. Under these conditions, South Korea will likely be forced to import thermal coal in 2026 at volumes significantly exceeding the levels seen in the first five months.
South Korean coal imports (Jan–May 2026):
· Australia: 15.3 mio t (+3.0 mio t or +24.4% y-o-y);
· Russia: 10.2 mio t (+5.0 mio t or +96.2% y-o-y);
· Indonesia: 10.1 mio t (-0.2 mio t or -1.9% y-o-y);
· Canada: 4.6 mio t (+1.1 mio t or +31.4% y-o-y);
· South Africa: 2.3 mio t (+0.3 mio t or +15.0% y-o-y);
· Colombia: 2.1 mio t (-0.3 mio t or -12.5% y-o-y);
· USA: 1.1 mio t (-1.0 mio t or -47.6% y-o-y).
Given the crisis in the Russian coal industry, South Korea remains strategically important due to comparatively higher prices than other key markets like China and India.
The unprofitability of Russian coal exports keeps growing because of expensive logistics and a strong ruble. Still, producers are trying to maintain their market share, owing to the quality of their material and expectations of better conditions in the medium term, including stabilization of global prices after they hit rock bottom, as well as the expected correction of the ruble exchange rate.
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Russian rail coal exports to China plunge 29.5% in January–June 2026
Russian coal exports to China through railway border crossings fell sharply during the first half of 2026 amid weak demand and transport constraints.
In January-June 2026, Russian railway coal exports to China via border crossings dropped to 5.8 mio t (-2.4 mio t or -29.5% vs. Jan-Jun 2025).
The main reasons for the decline in exports to China via border crossings were limited demand from utilities and industrial consumers, along with competition from coal supply on the Chinese domestic market.
Oversupply and abnormal weather conditions (the heavy rains observed since May) disrupted logistics and resulted in lower business activity, which caused a temporary slowdown in coal consumption and put downward pressure on domestic prices. Furthermore, extreme weather conditions led to the suspension of operations at numerous industrial facilities and also hampered trading in the coal market because of logistical issues, which limited new deals.
Market participants link a possible demand recovery to the onset of summer heat and stricter safety inspections at mines. However, weather forecasts for July show that unfavorable conditions (new typhoons and downpours) are likely to persist, creating additional uncertainty for exporters.
On top of muted demand, Russian suppliers faced additional constraints from limited railway capacity towards Chinese border points. The situation underscores a deeper, systemic issue: a long-standing shortage of rail transport capacity on the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) and Trans-Siberian Railway has led to exports being heavily dependent on the infrastructure of a monopoly, which still lags significantly behind market requirements.
Russian coal exports to China through railway border crossings fell sharply during the first half of 2026 amid weak demand and transport constraints.
In January-June 2026, Russian railway coal exports to China via border crossings dropped to 5.8 mio t (-2.4 mio t or -29.5% vs. Jan-Jun 2025).
The main reasons for the decline in exports to China via border crossings were limited demand from utilities and industrial consumers, along with competition from coal supply on the Chinese domestic market.
Oversupply and abnormal weather conditions (the heavy rains observed since May) disrupted logistics and resulted in lower business activity, which caused a temporary slowdown in coal consumption and put downward pressure on domestic prices. Furthermore, extreme weather conditions led to the suspension of operations at numerous industrial facilities and also hampered trading in the coal market because of logistical issues, which limited new deals.
Market participants link a possible demand recovery to the onset of summer heat and stricter safety inspections at mines. However, weather forecasts for July show that unfavorable conditions (new typhoons and downpours) are likely to persist, creating additional uncertainty for exporters.
On top of muted demand, Russian suppliers faced additional constraints from limited railway capacity towards Chinese border points. The situation underscores a deeper, systemic issue: a long-standing shortage of rail transport capacity on the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) and Trans-Siberian Railway has led to exports being heavily dependent on the infrastructure of a monopoly, which still lags significantly behind market requirements.
The Russian coal industry remains under severe financial pressure despite tax deferrals and other state support measures.
Russian coal companies will return 0.7 billion USD to the federal budget by the end of 2026, funds that were provided to them as deferrals on mineral extraction tax (MET) and insurance premiums, according to Energy Ministry.
Some 138 companies were eligible for deferrals totalling 1 billion USD, but only 86 that developed efficiency improvement programmes ultimately received 0.7 billion USD in relief. The programme, launched in 2025, enabled coal producers to postpone tax and social security payments and offered interest-free instalments on accumulated arrears, but the tax breaks have failed to turn the situation around in the industry.
The industry’s financial health continues to deteriorate despite state support. Losses of Russian coal companies in 2025 were 3.5 times higher than in 2024. The share of loss-making companies reached 70%, up from 50% a year earlier. In Q1 2026, the net loss kept growing, hitting 1.1 billion USD (+20%, vs. Q1 2025). Sixty-two enterprises are in the red; of which 20 have already halted production, while the rest are on the verge of suspension. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Energy forecasts that losses of Russian coal companies will increase by one and a half times in 2026.
Compounding the industry’s woes is the government’s refusal to introduce tariff incentives for export shipments via the northwest and southern ports, which Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Savelyev announced in late June. Market participants have repeatedly stated that without discounts on rail tariffs, transportation along these routes remains economically unviable; however, the government has concluded that the economic viability of such shipments remains stable even without additional concessions.
In April, Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev said the ministry had no plans for further support measures and that companies unable to cope with the current situation would be liquidated. Meanwhile, in late June, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed the Economy Ministry and relevant agencies to prepare additional support measures for the coal industry, underscoring the severity of the crisis.
Russian coal companies will return 0.7 billion USD to the federal budget by the end of 2026, funds that were provided to them as deferrals on mineral extraction tax (MET) and insurance premiums, according to Energy Ministry.
Some 138 companies were eligible for deferrals totalling 1 billion USD, but only 86 that developed efficiency improvement programmes ultimately received 0.7 billion USD in relief. The programme, launched in 2025, enabled coal producers to postpone tax and social security payments and offered interest-free instalments on accumulated arrears, but the tax breaks have failed to turn the situation around in the industry.
The industry’s financial health continues to deteriorate despite state support. Losses of Russian coal companies in 2025 were 3.5 times higher than in 2024. The share of loss-making companies reached 70%, up from 50% a year earlier. In Q1 2026, the net loss kept growing, hitting 1.1 billion USD (+20%, vs. Q1 2025). Sixty-two enterprises are in the red; of which 20 have already halted production, while the rest are on the verge of suspension. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Energy forecasts that losses of Russian coal companies will increase by one and a half times in 2026.
Compounding the industry’s woes is the government’s refusal to introduce tariff incentives for export shipments via the northwest and southern ports, which Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Savelyev announced in late June. Market participants have repeatedly stated that without discounts on rail tariffs, transportation along these routes remains economically unviable; however, the government has concluded that the economic viability of such shipments remains stable even without additional concessions.
In April, Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev said the ministry had no plans for further support measures and that companies unable to cope with the current situation would be liquidated. Meanwhile, in late June, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed the Economy Ministry and relevant agencies to prepare additional support measures for the coal industry, underscoring the severity of the crisis.
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Global coal prices diverged over the past week as geopolitical tensions, extreme weather and regional demand conditions shaped regional markets.
Coal market quotations moved in different directions over the past week: indices in Europe strengthened; coal in China edged lower; in Australia, thermal coal prices rose, while metallurgical material continued its downward trend.
In the European market, thermal coal indices strengthened above 118 USD/t. Prices found support from military escalation in the Middle East, which pushed oil and gas quotations back toward local highs. The US resumed strikes on Iran and blockaded its ports, to which Iran responded with attempts to block the Strait. Additionally, Trump’s statement about plans to impose a 20% transit fee for cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz and security measures added to market uncertainty.
Exceptional heat in Europe also created a favorable backdrop for energy markets, as demand for generation remained on an upward trajectory. German coal-fired power plant margins increased over the past week due to higher electricity prices.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub, amid US strikes on Iran and the blockade of its ports, surged 12.7% over the week to 651.99 USD/1,000 m3 (+73.60 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage rose to 53% (+2 ppts w-o-w), 10 ppts below last year’s level of 63%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals declined to 3.75 mio t (-0.07 mio t w-o-w). Water levels at Kaub — a critical point on the Rhine determining inland waterway capacity — fell to 45 cm, compared with 72 cm a week earlier.
South African High-CV 6,000 rose above 105 USD/t, following the European market. South Africa’s main coal export rail line was temporarily closed on July 15 after civil unrest halted train movements to the Richards Bay coal terminal. The line resumed operations, and scheduled annual maintenance on the North Corridor will proceed as planned from July 21 to August 1. This marks the third disruption to the coal rail line since early June: a major derailment on June 8 that lasted four days, and damage to a section of track between Illangakazi and Ulundi, which was repaired on July 13.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao corrected slightly below 119 USD/t. Overall, the Chinese thermal coal market is seeing stabilization amid higher coal consumption and expectations that record power demand due to extreme heat will push power plants to build inventories. Heavy rainfall in northern regions caused temporary production halts at several open-pit coal mines, reducing current domestic supply and providing localized support to quotations.
Most Chinese provinces are expected to experience about 30 days of extreme heat through mid-August. Over the next ten days, many regions in central and eastern China will see temperatures of 35–38°C for 5–8 days, with some areas potentially exceeding 41°C.
At the same time, most market participants remain cautious, believing price gains before summer’s end are unlikely to exceed 20–30 yuan/t (2.95–4.42 USD/t), as signs of potential supply shortages are currently absent. Coal stocks at 9 major ports fell to 28.22 mio t (-0.82 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR fell to 104 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR dropped to a low not seen since October 2023 at 62 USD/t.
The decline in Indonesian quotations continued due to limited demand from China and India. Southern China continues to feel the effects of a typhoon, which has exacerbated port congestion and all but eliminated the possibility of procurement. Indian buyers continued to hold a wait-and-see stance, as monsoon rains across the country reduced power demand and domestic coal supply covered most needs.
Prompt cargoes remained under pressure as position-holding traders sought to offload material at more competitive levels. However, producers were not aggressively cutting prices, awaiting clarity on production quota revisions and prioritizing domestic market obligations. The resumption of Middle East conflict introduced additional uncertainty for demand am
Coal market quotations moved in different directions over the past week: indices in Europe strengthened; coal in China edged lower; in Australia, thermal coal prices rose, while metallurgical material continued its downward trend.
In the European market, thermal coal indices strengthened above 118 USD/t. Prices found support from military escalation in the Middle East, which pushed oil and gas quotations back toward local highs. The US resumed strikes on Iran and blockaded its ports, to which Iran responded with attempts to block the Strait. Additionally, Trump’s statement about plans to impose a 20% transit fee for cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz and security measures added to market uncertainty.
Exceptional heat in Europe also created a favorable backdrop for energy markets, as demand for generation remained on an upward trajectory. German coal-fired power plant margins increased over the past week due to higher electricity prices.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub, amid US strikes on Iran and the blockade of its ports, surged 12.7% over the week to 651.99 USD/1,000 m3 (+73.60 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage rose to 53% (+2 ppts w-o-w), 10 ppts below last year’s level of 63%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals declined to 3.75 mio t (-0.07 mio t w-o-w). Water levels at Kaub — a critical point on the Rhine determining inland waterway capacity — fell to 45 cm, compared with 72 cm a week earlier.
South African High-CV 6,000 rose above 105 USD/t, following the European market. South Africa’s main coal export rail line was temporarily closed on July 15 after civil unrest halted train movements to the Richards Bay coal terminal. The line resumed operations, and scheduled annual maintenance on the North Corridor will proceed as planned from July 21 to August 1. This marks the third disruption to the coal rail line since early June: a major derailment on June 8 that lasted four days, and damage to a section of track between Illangakazi and Ulundi, which was repaired on July 13.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao corrected slightly below 119 USD/t. Overall, the Chinese thermal coal market is seeing stabilization amid higher coal consumption and expectations that record power demand due to extreme heat will push power plants to build inventories. Heavy rainfall in northern regions caused temporary production halts at several open-pit coal mines, reducing current domestic supply and providing localized support to quotations.
Most Chinese provinces are expected to experience about 30 days of extreme heat through mid-August. Over the next ten days, many regions in central and eastern China will see temperatures of 35–38°C for 5–8 days, with some areas potentially exceeding 41°C.
At the same time, most market participants remain cautious, believing price gains before summer’s end are unlikely to exceed 20–30 yuan/t (2.95–4.42 USD/t), as signs of potential supply shortages are currently absent. Coal stocks at 9 major ports fell to 28.22 mio t (-0.82 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR fell to 104 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR dropped to a low not seen since October 2023 at 62 USD/t.
The decline in Indonesian quotations continued due to limited demand from China and India. Southern China continues to feel the effects of a typhoon, which has exacerbated port congestion and all but eliminated the possibility of procurement. Indian buyers continued to hold a wait-and-see stance, as monsoon rains across the country reduced power demand and domestic coal supply covered most needs.
Prompt cargoes remained under pressure as position-holding traders sought to offload material at more competitive levels. However, producers were not aggressively cutting prices, awaiting clarity on production quota revisions and prioritizing domestic market obligations. The resumption of Middle East conflict introduced additional uncertainty for demand am
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Russian coal exports to Turkey fall 26.9% in January–May 2026
Russian coal exports to Turkey declined sharply in the first five months of 2026 as unprofitable shipments and rising logistics costs weakened Russia’s position in the market.
In January-May 2026 Russian coal exports to Turkey dropped to 9.5 mio t (-3.5 mio t or -26.9% y-o-y).
Meanwhile, in Jan-May 2026, Turkey’s total coal imports, including thermal coal, coking coal and anthracite, totaled 15.0 mio t (-2.3 mio t or -13.3% y-o-y).
In Jan-May 2026, Colombia ramped up its deliveries to Turkey to 2.2 mio t (+37.5% y-o-y), while Kazakhstan boosted its coal supplies 2-fold to 1.4 mio t (+100% y-o-y).
Russia’s share in Turkey’s coal imports decreased by 11.8 percentage points to 63.3% in Jan–May 2026 (compared to 75.1% in Jan–May 2025).
Most producers are forced to export coal at zero or negative profitability. Shipments via southern and northwestern ports are loss-making, while access to rail capacity remains limited amid rising rail tariffs.
This situation carries the risk of reducing Russian coal exports’ share in the key remaining markets for Russian suppliers, including the Turkish market, where since 2022 Russian coal has successfully replaced Colombia as the main supplier.
Russian coal exports to Turkey declined sharply in the first five months of 2026 as unprofitable shipments and rising logistics costs weakened Russia’s position in the market.
In January-May 2026 Russian coal exports to Turkey dropped to 9.5 mio t (-3.5 mio t or -26.9% y-o-y).
Meanwhile, in Jan-May 2026, Turkey’s total coal imports, including thermal coal, coking coal and anthracite, totaled 15.0 mio t (-2.3 mio t or -13.3% y-o-y).
In Jan-May 2026, Colombia ramped up its deliveries to Turkey to 2.2 mio t (+37.5% y-o-y), while Kazakhstan boosted its coal supplies 2-fold to 1.4 mio t (+100% y-o-y).
Russia’s share in Turkey’s coal imports decreased by 11.8 percentage points to 63.3% in Jan–May 2026 (compared to 75.1% in Jan–May 2025).
Most producers are forced to export coal at zero or negative profitability. Shipments via southern and northwestern ports are loss-making, while access to rail capacity remains limited amid rising rail tariffs.
This situation carries the risk of reducing Russian coal exports’ share in the key remaining markets for Russian suppliers, including the Turkish market, where since 2022 Russian coal has successfully replaced Colombia as the main supplier.