BITCOIN VOLUME OVERVIEW
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Now it’s time for today’s Bitcoin volume overview. Over the past 24 hours, we’ve got $3.85 billion of spot volume and $46.3 billion of futures volume. That gives us a 24-hour spot-to-futures volume ratio of 8.31%, above the 30-day average of 8.02%.
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So going by CoinGlass, we do actually have spot-backed sell pressure today. Spot volume is running above its usual ratio to futures, and the spot pressure over the past 24 hours is on the sell side.
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But I also wanted to check the volume analysis on my website, https://nioctib.live And on there, we’re seeing something very different from what CoinGlass is showing for the same 24-hour period.
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CoinGlass is showing net spot sell pressure on the USDT pairs. But my website also includes the USDC volume data. When you include those pairs, the buying offsets the selling on the USDT pairs and flips the combined picture to net spot buy pressure over the past 24 hours. In fact, it’s showing net buy pressure across most timeframes right now, which is pretty interesting to see.
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So again, what we’re witnessing here is wishy-washy. Bit of buying, bit of selling, sideways price action. It’ll probably drag itself out all weekend.
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The next thing we need to look at is where the attractive levels of liquidity are sitting and which ranges Bitcoin has traded in most often recently.
⠀
Now it’s time for today’s Bitcoin volume overview. Over the past 24 hours, we’ve got $3.85 billion of spot volume and $46.3 billion of futures volume. That gives us a 24-hour spot-to-futures volume ratio of 8.31%, above the 30-day average of 8.02%.
⠀
So going by CoinGlass, we do actually have spot-backed sell pressure today. Spot volume is running above its usual ratio to futures, and the spot pressure over the past 24 hours is on the sell side.
⠀
But I also wanted to check the volume analysis on my website, https://nioctib.live And on there, we’re seeing something very different from what CoinGlass is showing for the same 24-hour period.
⠀
CoinGlass is showing net spot sell pressure on the USDT pairs. But my website also includes the USDC volume data. When you include those pairs, the buying offsets the selling on the USDT pairs and flips the combined picture to net spot buy pressure over the past 24 hours. In fact, it’s showing net buy pressure across most timeframes right now, which is pretty interesting to see.
⠀
So again, what we’re witnessing here is wishy-washy. Bit of buying, bit of selling, sideways price action. It’ll probably drag itself out all weekend.
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The next thing we need to look at is where the attractive levels of liquidity are sitting and which ranges Bitcoin has traded in most often recently.
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BITCOIN LIQUIDATION HEAT MAPS
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The reason I’m still holding the long is that the 24-hour heat map shows a very attractive pocket of liquidity above price at $76,500. That’s the liquidity grab I’m looking for, and that’s where I’d take profit.
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The two-week heat map still shows a bunch of liquidity below price. But as Bitcoin has come down, it’s also created liquidity above. There might be enough there for Bitcoin to venture back into that range for a bit. That’s what makes the long interesting here, even though I’m still expecting more downside next week.
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I think there’s more liquidity that needs to unwind. We’ll check the VRVP to see where those local ranges of liquidity are sitting, and then look at aggregated open interest to understand what’s actually been happening over the past couple of days.
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For me, $65,500 has got to be a target at some point next week, with $62,000 also on the cards. I’m expecting a rough November for Bitcoin, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the downtrend continue. And that $62,000 liquidation level on the three-month chart looks awfully attractive.
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Honestly, I still like the short. I’d much rather be short from $80,000 than holding this long. If you’re already in that short and the market does collapse over the next couple of weeks like it looks like it could, that could be the position of a lifetime if you play it correctly.
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The way I’d play it is to only dollar-cost average on pumps and wait for people to be getting liquidated before increasing the size of the position. In theory, that could work out stupendously well if the downside plays out.
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The reason I’m still holding the long is that the 24-hour heat map shows a very attractive pocket of liquidity above price at $76,500. That’s the liquidity grab I’m looking for, and that’s where I’d take profit.
⠀
The two-week heat map still shows a bunch of liquidity below price. But as Bitcoin has come down, it’s also created liquidity above. There might be enough there for Bitcoin to venture back into that range for a bit. That’s what makes the long interesting here, even though I’m still expecting more downside next week.
⠀
I think there’s more liquidity that needs to unwind. We’ll check the VRVP to see where those local ranges of liquidity are sitting, and then look at aggregated open interest to understand what’s actually been happening over the past couple of days.
⠀
For me, $65,500 has got to be a target at some point next week, with $62,000 also on the cards. I’m expecting a rough November for Bitcoin, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the downtrend continue. And that $62,000 liquidation level on the three-month chart looks awfully attractive.
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Honestly, I still like the short. I’d much rather be short from $80,000 than holding this long. If you’re already in that short and the market does collapse over the next couple of weeks like it looks like it could, that could be the position of a lifetime if you play it correctly.
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The way I’d play it is to only dollar-cost average on pumps and wait for people to be getting liquidated before increasing the size of the position. In theory, that could work out stupendously well if the downside plays out.
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BITCOIN VRVP AND LIQUIDITY GAPS
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The VRVP complements what we’ve just seen on the heat maps. On the lower timeframe, the peak range of liquidity is above Bitcoin’s current price, and there’s a gap in the volume profile that could let Bitcoin run all the way up to $77,000. That’s broadly in line with what the heat maps are showing.
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When we zoom out to the four-hour chart and take in the wider trading range, peak liquidity is still above price at $77,000. Zoom out again to include the whole drop, and the peak is still above us. The difference is that on this wider view, you can see the gap below price that I’ve highlighted on the chart.
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That’s the bearish setup. If Bitcoin is leaving that area of peak liquidity, it could travel through the gap below and test the next peak down at $62,000. In all honesty, that makes a lot of sense to me, and I still believe in that idea.
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In the short term, though, I think we’re more likely to trigger the liquidity above price first and squeeze the people who are already short expecting that drop. Looking into Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday, I think there’s a strong chance we make that move through the gap to the downside at some point next week.
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When Bitcoin went up through that level, it crushed straight through the whole area. If we come back through it the other way, I’d expect us to move through it just as quickly.
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The VRVP complements what we’ve just seen on the heat maps. On the lower timeframe, the peak range of liquidity is above Bitcoin’s current price, and there’s a gap in the volume profile that could let Bitcoin run all the way up to $77,000. That’s broadly in line with what the heat maps are showing.
⠀
When we zoom out to the four-hour chart and take in the wider trading range, peak liquidity is still above price at $77,000. Zoom out again to include the whole drop, and the peak is still above us. The difference is that on this wider view, you can see the gap below price that I’ve highlighted on the chart.
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That’s the bearish setup. If Bitcoin is leaving that area of peak liquidity, it could travel through the gap below and test the next peak down at $62,000. In all honesty, that makes a lot of sense to me, and I still believe in that idea.
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In the short term, though, I think we’re more likely to trigger the liquidity above price first and squeeze the people who are already short expecting that drop. Looking into Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday, I think there’s a strong chance we make that move through the gap to the downside at some point next week.
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When Bitcoin went up through that level, it crushed straight through the whole area. If we come back through it the other way, I’d expect us to move through it just as quickly.
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BITCOIN AGGREGATED OPEN INTEREST
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What a fascinating chart this always is. We’re going to start with a big old zoom out and ask: how is Bitcoin’s liquidity faring in comparison to its price?
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Start with Bitcoin’s price at the very bottom of this range. From that low to where we are now, price is up 1.3%. From the top of the range to where we are now, it’s down 13.17%. Then we measure liquidity using the exact same points on the aggregated open interest chart. Liquidity is up 6.13% from the bottom and down 12.25% from the top.
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So liquidity and price have fallen by fairly similar amounts from the top. But when you measure from the bottom, liquidity is still up 6.13% and price is only up 1.3%. That’s a gap of 4.83 percentage points. That’s what I mean when I say they’re not in equilibrium. There’s still money baked into this range that hasn’t come out yet.
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There are two ways I’m looking at it. If liquidity stays where it is, Bitcoin would need to go up roughly 5% to make up that difference. The other way is for liquidity to drop roughly 5%, with price dropping much less. In that second scenario, price can still go down while the gap closes, because more is coming out of open interest than is coming off the price.
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In a big crash-type scenario, I’d expect us to find that equilibrium. My read is that the extra positions still baked into the price are likely longs that have been holding this whole time. We’ve moved down, but we haven’t had a big squeeze beyond the current range yet. We’re threatening one now. If we do squeeze below the range and those longs are forced out, that’s how the extra liquidity could come out and the whole thing gets reset again.
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That’s what we’re trying to pick up on every day. We measure price and liquidity from the same points, look at where the gaps are, then ask which positions are still in the market and what price action would force them out. That gives us a better idea of how liquidity might unwind when price actually makes the move.
⠀
What a fascinating chart this always is. We’re going to start with a big old zoom out and ask: how is Bitcoin’s liquidity faring in comparison to its price?
⠀
Start with Bitcoin’s price at the very bottom of this range. From that low to where we are now, price is up 1.3%. From the top of the range to where we are now, it’s down 13.17%. Then we measure liquidity using the exact same points on the aggregated open interest chart. Liquidity is up 6.13% from the bottom and down 12.25% from the top.
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So liquidity and price have fallen by fairly similar amounts from the top. But when you measure from the bottom, liquidity is still up 6.13% and price is only up 1.3%. That’s a gap of 4.83 percentage points. That’s what I mean when I say they’re not in equilibrium. There’s still money baked into this range that hasn’t come out yet.
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There are two ways I’m looking at it. If liquidity stays where it is, Bitcoin would need to go up roughly 5% to make up that difference. The other way is for liquidity to drop roughly 5%, with price dropping much less. In that second scenario, price can still go down while the gap closes, because more is coming out of open interest than is coming off the price.
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In a big crash-type scenario, I’d expect us to find that equilibrium. My read is that the extra positions still baked into the price are likely longs that have been holding this whole time. We’ve moved down, but we haven’t had a big squeeze beyond the current range yet. We’re threatening one now. If we do squeeze below the range and those longs are forced out, that’s how the extra liquidity could come out and the whole thing gets reset again.
⠀
That’s what we’re trying to pick up on every day. We measure price and liquidity from the same points, look at where the gaps are, then ask which positions are still in the market and what price action would force them out. That gives us a better idea of how liquidity might unwind when price actually makes the move.
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BITCOIN AGGREGATED OPEN INTEREST: WEEKEND SQUEEZE SETUP
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It’s a difficult call, but Bitcoin looks like it’s building the potential for a short squeeze. In the past hour, we’ve seen the biggest change in price and liquidity since the weekend began. To understand why that matters, look at how the weekend has played out so far.
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We’ve repeatedly seen price go down while open interest goes up. My read is that shorts keep building and trying to push Bitcoin down, only for some of those positions to get squeezed. But the broader move this morning was the other way around: price kept rising while open interest dropped. That looks like earlier shorts taking profit. When they buy back to close, it hits the order book as buy pressure, even though they’re not opening fresh longs.
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The past hour is where it gets interesting. Bitcoin is threatening to break below the range, but it looks like fresh shorts are driving the move. If they keep adding and pressuring price down, that builds the potential for a big swing the other way at some point this weekend. Whether we actually get the squeeze depends on how much volume comes through.
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If shorts keep building and push Bitcoin back towards my entry, I may want to increase the size of my position. Right now, I don’t mind sitting on these trades until something actually starts happening. I’d really like to see Bitcoin go up to $77,000 and be able to snag an entry there, but I don’t know if the market’s going to give us that.
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We’ve seen consistent futures buy pressure in my data today, while CoinGlass is showing an increase in futures sell pressure. So is it genuinely sell pressure, or are we reading the same activity differently? I think part of the difference is how the two sites handle positions closing. Some days the readings line up. Other days they don’t, and it makes nowhere near as much sense to me.
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On my website, I count a short buying back to close as buy pressure. Open interest can fall because the position is gone, but that buy order still hits the book, and somebody on the other side, often a liquidity provider, still has to take it. My suspicion is that CoinGlass is treating some of that as money leaving the market, whereas I still want to count the pressure from the trade itself. That’s why I prefer my read of it here.
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Anyway, the aggregated open interest chart didn’t disappoint today. I think we’re setting up for a bit of a short squeeze. The setup is there. Now we need to see if the volume actually comes in to make it happen.
nioctib.live
⠀
It’s a difficult call, but Bitcoin looks like it’s building the potential for a short squeeze. In the past hour, we’ve seen the biggest change in price and liquidity since the weekend began. To understand why that matters, look at how the weekend has played out so far.
⠀
We’ve repeatedly seen price go down while open interest goes up. My read is that shorts keep building and trying to push Bitcoin down, only for some of those positions to get squeezed. But the broader move this morning was the other way around: price kept rising while open interest dropped. That looks like earlier shorts taking profit. When they buy back to close, it hits the order book as buy pressure, even though they’re not opening fresh longs.
⠀
The past hour is where it gets interesting. Bitcoin is threatening to break below the range, but it looks like fresh shorts are driving the move. If they keep adding and pressuring price down, that builds the potential for a big swing the other way at some point this weekend. Whether we actually get the squeeze depends on how much volume comes through.
⠀
If shorts keep building and push Bitcoin back towards my entry, I may want to increase the size of my position. Right now, I don’t mind sitting on these trades until something actually starts happening. I’d really like to see Bitcoin go up to $77,000 and be able to snag an entry there, but I don’t know if the market’s going to give us that.
⠀
We’ve seen consistent futures buy pressure in my data today, while CoinGlass is showing an increase in futures sell pressure. So is it genuinely sell pressure, or are we reading the same activity differently? I think part of the difference is how the two sites handle positions closing. Some days the readings line up. Other days they don’t, and it makes nowhere near as much sense to me.
⠀
On my website, I count a short buying back to close as buy pressure. Open interest can fall because the position is gone, but that buy order still hits the book, and somebody on the other side, often a liquidity provider, still has to take it. My suspicion is that CoinGlass is treating some of that as money leaving the market, whereas I still want to count the pressure from the trade itself. That’s why I prefer my read of it here.
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Anyway, the aggregated open interest chart didn’t disappoint today. I think we’re setting up for a bit of a short squeeze. The setup is there. Now we need to see if the volume actually comes in to make it happen.
nioctib.live
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