The next thing I’m watching on Ethereum is the funding rate and predicted funding rate index, and honestly, this still looks bullish.
Right now, the predicted funding rate is starting to rise back to the upside. You can literally see the red on the chart beginning to turn back towards green. And historically, when the predicted funding rate starts pushing back towards green, Ethereum price tends to follow. It usually means sentiment is beginning to shift, momentum is starting to build again, and traders are starting to lean back towards upside exposure.
But the more important part is the actual funding rate. The actual funding rate has been dropping to the downside, and that is not automatically bearish. In fact, when we’ve seen this happen in the past, it has often been a bullish setup because it shows the market is getting too aggressively short. Shorts start piling in, funding drops, and then Ethereum begins pushing higher as those short positions get trapped.
So from a funding-rate perspective, Ethereum still looks bullish today. Predicted funding is curling back up, actual funding is cooling off, and that combination suggests the market is not overheated yet. If anything, it looks like Ethereum is setting up to squeeze higher again.
Right now, the predicted funding rate is starting to rise back to the upside. You can literally see the red on the chart beginning to turn back towards green. And historically, when the predicted funding rate starts pushing back towards green, Ethereum price tends to follow. It usually means sentiment is beginning to shift, momentum is starting to build again, and traders are starting to lean back towards upside exposure.
But the more important part is the actual funding rate. The actual funding rate has been dropping to the downside, and that is not automatically bearish. In fact, when we’ve seen this happen in the past, it has often been a bullish setup because it shows the market is getting too aggressively short. Shorts start piling in, funding drops, and then Ethereum begins pushing higher as those short positions get trapped.
So from a funding-rate perspective, Ethereum still looks bullish today. Predicted funding is curling back up, actual funding is cooling off, and that combination suggests the market is not overheated yet. If anything, it looks like Ethereum is setting up to squeeze higher again.
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Bitcoin’s long-short ratio has been drifting lower recently, showing that positioning has been leaning increasingly towards shorts.
On the one-hour chart, that shift is already visible. But the more important signal comes from the one-day chart. Historically, when Bitcoin’s long-short ratio reaches the lower end of the range, it has often marked a point where positioning becomes overly bearish, and the market begins to reset back to the upside.
The last time we saw a similar setup, Bitcoin rallied from around $107,000 to $122,000. The previous time, the move was also strongly positive, with Bitcoin pushing from roughly $85,000 to $110,000. Those are the ranges I’ve highlighted on the second chart.
The key point here is that when funding starts moving negative while price continues moving higher, it usually suggests that short positions are being trapped.
Traders are leaning bearish, but the market is not confirming that bearish positioning. Instead, price keeps grinding higher, forcing those shorts into increasingly uncomfortable positions.
That is how short squeezes build.
So from a positioning perspective, Bitcoin still looks constructive. The long-short ratio is near an area where previous reversals have developed, funding is showing signs of bearish overcrowding, and price is continuing to hold firm. That combination tells me the market may continue squeezing shorts until we eventually see a much sharper move higher.
This is exactly why risk management matters here. You have to respect the volatility, but you also cannot be so cautious that you miss the opportunity. In my view, the risk-reward still favours upside, and that is why I am currently positioned long on Bitcoin.
On the one-hour chart, that shift is already visible. But the more important signal comes from the one-day chart. Historically, when Bitcoin’s long-short ratio reaches the lower end of the range, it has often marked a point where positioning becomes overly bearish, and the market begins to reset back to the upside.
The last time we saw a similar setup, Bitcoin rallied from around $107,000 to $122,000. The previous time, the move was also strongly positive, with Bitcoin pushing from roughly $85,000 to $110,000. Those are the ranges I’ve highlighted on the second chart.
The key point here is that when funding starts moving negative while price continues moving higher, it usually suggests that short positions are being trapped.
Traders are leaning bearish, but the market is not confirming that bearish positioning. Instead, price keeps grinding higher, forcing those shorts into increasingly uncomfortable positions.
That is how short squeezes build.
So from a positioning perspective, Bitcoin still looks constructive. The long-short ratio is near an area where previous reversals have developed, funding is showing signs of bearish overcrowding, and price is continuing to hold firm. That combination tells me the market may continue squeezing shorts until we eventually see a much sharper move higher.
This is exactly why risk management matters here. You have to respect the volatility, but you also cannot be so cautious that you miss the opportunity. In my view, the risk-reward still favours upside, and that is why I am currently positioned long on Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin open interest.
When we look at the one-hour open interest chart, Bitcoin has not yet seen the same aggressive rebuild in positioning that Ethereum has seen. That is important, because Ethereum is currently showing stronger derivatives participation in the short term, whereas Bitcoin is still lagging slightly from an open-interest perspective.
Bitcoin open interest has dropped from around $28 billion down to $26.5 billion, which is a decline of roughly $1.5 billion, or about 5.4%. That is not a small move. That is a meaningful flush in leveraged positioning.
And historically, when we have seen drops in open interest of this size, the first move is not always the final move.
Often, open interest continues to fall further before the market fully resets and begins rebuilding positioning again. So the key question now is simple: was that the full leverage reset, or does Bitcoin need one more open-interest flush before the next major leg higher?
That is the short-term risk.
But when we zoom out to the daily chart, the structure still looks much more constructive. Open interest is still following the market very cleanly from a liquidity perspective.
More importantly, Bitcoin currently has roughly half the open interest it had when price was trading near $125,000, but Bitcoin’s price itself has not fallen by half.
It means that, proportionally, there is still a strong amount of trading interest in Bitcoin relative to where price is today. In other words, the market is not dead. Liquidity has not disappeared. Participation is still there. And if anything, it suggests Bitcoin may be undervalued in the short term relative to the level of derivatives interest still sitting in the market.
So the real question is whether today’s rally can continue strongly enough to bring open interest back into the market. If price keeps pushing higher while funding remains subdued or negative, that becomes a very dangerous setup for shorts. It means traders are leaning bearish, but price is refusing to break down. That is exactly how trapped short positioning starts to build.
If Bitcoin then continues higher, those shorts are forced to cover, open interest starts rebuilding, liquidity chases the move, and the squeeze can accelerate very quickly.
So my read is this: Bitcoin’s one-hour open interest has not yet confirmed the same strength we are seeing in Ethereum, and that means I still need to be aware of short-term risk. But the daily open-interest structure still supports the idea that Bitcoin has room to continue higher.
The market has flushed leverage, positioning is not excessively overheated, and there is still enough participation to fuel another move.
That is why I am staying long, but I am also respecting the risk. This is not a market where you can be reckless. But it is also not a market where you can be so cautious that you miss the move entirely. The opportunity is there, the structure is still constructive, and if open interest starts climbing again while price continues rising,
Bitcoin could squeeze much harder than people expect.
When we look at the one-hour open interest chart, Bitcoin has not yet seen the same aggressive rebuild in positioning that Ethereum has seen. That is important, because Ethereum is currently showing stronger derivatives participation in the short term, whereas Bitcoin is still lagging slightly from an open-interest perspective.
Bitcoin open interest has dropped from around $28 billion down to $26.5 billion, which is a decline of roughly $1.5 billion, or about 5.4%. That is not a small move. That is a meaningful flush in leveraged positioning.
And historically, when we have seen drops in open interest of this size, the first move is not always the final move.
Often, open interest continues to fall further before the market fully resets and begins rebuilding positioning again. So the key question now is simple: was that the full leverage reset, or does Bitcoin need one more open-interest flush before the next major leg higher?
That is the short-term risk.
But when we zoom out to the daily chart, the structure still looks much more constructive. Open interest is still following the market very cleanly from a liquidity perspective.
More importantly, Bitcoin currently has roughly half the open interest it had when price was trading near $125,000, but Bitcoin’s price itself has not fallen by half.
It means that, proportionally, there is still a strong amount of trading interest in Bitcoin relative to where price is today. In other words, the market is not dead. Liquidity has not disappeared. Participation is still there. And if anything, it suggests Bitcoin may be undervalued in the short term relative to the level of derivatives interest still sitting in the market.
So the real question is whether today’s rally can continue strongly enough to bring open interest back into the market. If price keeps pushing higher while funding remains subdued or negative, that becomes a very dangerous setup for shorts. It means traders are leaning bearish, but price is refusing to break down. That is exactly how trapped short positioning starts to build.
If Bitcoin then continues higher, those shorts are forced to cover, open interest starts rebuilding, liquidity chases the move, and the squeeze can accelerate very quickly.
So my read is this: Bitcoin’s one-hour open interest has not yet confirmed the same strength we are seeing in Ethereum, and that means I still need to be aware of short-term risk. But the daily open-interest structure still supports the idea that Bitcoin has room to continue higher.
The market has flushed leverage, positioning is not excessively overheated, and there is still enough participation to fuel another move.
That is why I am staying long, but I am also respecting the risk. This is not a market where you can be reckless. But it is also not a market where you can be so cautious that you miss the move entirely. The opportunity is there, the structure is still constructive, and if open interest starts climbing again while price continues rising,
Bitcoin could squeeze much harder than people expect.
Now looking at the Ethereum liquidation heat map, we can see that yesterday Ethereum pretty much cleared out the major liquidation levels. Since then, a new, very obvious liquidity zone has formed around $2,400.
That tells me Ethereum is likely to revisit the highs at some point. The real question is not whether we move back up there — the question is how low do we dip first before that move happens?
When we zoom out to the weekly heat map, the picture gets even more interesting. There are huge liquidation levels sitting at $2,400 and above, potentially worth tens of billions of dollars. That is exactly the kind of liquidity the market likes to chase.
But below $2,300, there is also a large pocket of downside liquidations that could easily get clipped first. So it would not surprise me at all to see Ethereum flush lower, take out that liquidity, and then reverse back to the upside.
That is why I still see this as a buy-the-dip market.
If Ethereum drops aggressively into that lower liquidity zone, I am not looking at that as a reason to panic. I am looking at that as a potential long opportunity, because the bigger liquidity target still appears to be sitting above the market around $2,400 and higher.
So for me, Ethereum still looks bullish overall. Short-term, we could get a dip. But structurally, this still looks like a market that wants to move higher.
That tells me Ethereum is likely to revisit the highs at some point. The real question is not whether we move back up there — the question is how low do we dip first before that move happens?
When we zoom out to the weekly heat map, the picture gets even more interesting. There are huge liquidation levels sitting at $2,400 and above, potentially worth tens of billions of dollars. That is exactly the kind of liquidity the market likes to chase.
But below $2,300, there is also a large pocket of downside liquidations that could easily get clipped first. So it would not surprise me at all to see Ethereum flush lower, take out that liquidity, and then reverse back to the upside.
That is why I still see this as a buy-the-dip market.
If Ethereum drops aggressively into that lower liquidity zone, I am not looking at that as a reason to panic. I am looking at that as a potential long opportunity, because the bigger liquidity target still appears to be sitting above the market around $2,400 and higher.
So for me, Ethereum still looks bullish overall. Short-term, we could get a dip. But structurally, this still looks like a market that wants to move higher.
On the flip side, Bitcoin is not mirroring Ethereum here.
Ethereum has clearer upside liquidity, but Bitcoin has large liquidation levels sitting underneath price, mainly around $80,000, with a bigger zone lower around $77,000.
On the weekly heat map, there is still a lot of liquidity below. On the 24-hour heat map, there are also heavy liquidations just under current price that have not been taken yet.
That means a downside sweep is still possible today.
This is why I said in yesterday’s video that altcoins actually do not look bad here. Bitcoin may slow down, chop, or dip for a few days, while altcoins start to move better.
For Bitcoin today, the key is direction.
If price starts pushing into the liquidity around $80,000, then I would expect it to continue lower, potentially opening a new range towards $78,000, and possibly the larger zone near $77,000.
But if Bitcoin holds above that area and refuses to break down, then shorts can still get trapped and price can rotate higher again.
So the setup is simple: Bitcoin has liquidity below, Ethereum has stronger upside liquidity, and altcoins may start outperforming if Bitcoin slows down.
Once Bitcoin picks a direction today, I expect it to keep moving that way until the liquidity gets taken.
Ethereum has clearer upside liquidity, but Bitcoin has large liquidation levels sitting underneath price, mainly around $80,000, with a bigger zone lower around $77,000.
On the weekly heat map, there is still a lot of liquidity below. On the 24-hour heat map, there are also heavy liquidations just under current price that have not been taken yet.
That means a downside sweep is still possible today.
This is why I said in yesterday’s video that altcoins actually do not look bad here. Bitcoin may slow down, chop, or dip for a few days, while altcoins start to move better.
For Bitcoin today, the key is direction.
If price starts pushing into the liquidity around $80,000, then I would expect it to continue lower, potentially opening a new range towards $78,000, and possibly the larger zone near $77,000.
But if Bitcoin holds above that area and refuses to break down, then shorts can still get trapped and price can rotate higher again.
So the setup is simple: Bitcoin has liquidity below, Ethereum has stronger upside liquidity, and altcoins may start outperforming if Bitcoin slows down.
Once Bitcoin picks a direction today, I expect it to keep moving that way until the liquidity gets taken.
Right now, I’m around 75% in profit on my trade.
We entered at $80,904, following the analysis I posted this morning, and the trade is now up around $1,495.
So far, the setup is playing out well.
I still think this move can continue higher, because the earlier analysis remains relevant. The latest ETH funding rate, ETH predicted funding rate, Bitcoin funding rate, and Bitcoin predicted funding rate are all still key drivers behind today’s price action.
Aggregated funding has been very negative and is now flip-flopping back and forth. But the important point is this: even when funding dips negative, price is still acting bullish.
That tells me traders are trying to short too quickly.
And when shorts pile in while price keeps rising, that creates more fuel for the upside. So for now, I still see this as a bullish setup.
We entered at $80,904, following the analysis I posted this morning, and the trade is now up around $1,495.
So far, the setup is playing out well.
I still think this move can continue higher, because the earlier analysis remains relevant. The latest ETH funding rate, ETH predicted funding rate, Bitcoin funding rate, and Bitcoin predicted funding rate are all still key drivers behind today’s price action.
Aggregated funding has been very negative and is now flip-flopping back and forth. But the important point is this: even when funding dips negative, price is still acting bullish.
That tells me traders are trying to short too quickly.
And when shorts pile in while price keeps rising, that creates more fuel for the upside. So for now, I still see this as a bullish setup.
Looking at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map on the 24-hour setting, the downside liquidity is clearly visible, but I’m not fully convinced it is the real target here.
It looks slightly fake to me.
Yes, there is liquidity below price, and Bitcoin could absolutely dip towards $80,500 before moving higher. That risk is still on the table.
But when I compare the liquidity below with the concentration above price, the upside liquidity looks much more important. There are far more short positions sitting above the market waiting to get squeezed.
Bitcoin usually moves towards the strongest liquidity pool, and right now, the money appears to be sitting above.
There is also a large yellow cluster showing high-leverage longs that could get wiped out if price dips first. I would put myself in that category right now, because I am using aggressive leverage on this trade.
So this is not risk-free.
But as the day goes on, I am getting more convinced that Bitcoin may skip the downside sweep and continue ripping higher into the liquidity above.
For now, the setup still looks like a short squeeze in progress.
It looks slightly fake to me.
Yes, there is liquidity below price, and Bitcoin could absolutely dip towards $80,500 before moving higher. That risk is still on the table.
But when I compare the liquidity below with the concentration above price, the upside liquidity looks much more important. There are far more short positions sitting above the market waiting to get squeezed.
Bitcoin usually moves towards the strongest liquidity pool, and right now, the money appears to be sitting above.
There is also a large yellow cluster showing high-leverage longs that could get wiped out if price dips first. I would put myself in that category right now, because I am using aggressive leverage on this trade.
So this is not risk-free.
But as the day goes on, I am getting more convinced that Bitcoin may skip the downside sweep and continue ripping higher into the liquidity above.
For now, the setup still looks like a short squeeze in progress.
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If the analysis in here has helped you, sharing it with one or two trading friends would really help grow the group, I’d genuinely appreciate it.
I’m building Chart Advantage as a serious trading community where we break down price action, liquidity, funding, open interest, and market structure in a way that actually helps people trade better.
No pointless spam. No fake hype. Just useful information, professional analysis, and real setups.
Invite link:
https://t.me/Chart_Advantage
If the analysis in here has helped you, sharing it with one or two trading friends would really help grow the group, I’d genuinely appreciate it.
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Chart Advantage is a private trading community for serious market participants.
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We focus on high-probability setups, technical analysis, and disciplined risk management across equities, crypto, and commodities.
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I am also very aware that a head and shoulders top pattern is starting to form on Bitcoin.
To be fair, it does look fairly complete, so from a bullish perspective, that is not ideal. But I am maintaining my bullish stance unless price drops below my entry.
I have increased the size of my trade twice around these levels, because I am anticipating a bounce and support forming here.
That being said, this is still a high-risk area.
If Bitcoin just drops straight through support, it would be a pretty ugly red day. The key level I am watching is around $80,800. If we lose that level properly, then I would expect price to move lower towards $79,000–$78,500.
So for now, I am still bullish, but this is definitely a level where risk needs to be respected.
To be fair, it does look fairly complete, so from a bullish perspective, that is not ideal. But I am maintaining my bullish stance unless price drops below my entry.
I have increased the size of my trade twice around these levels, because I am anticipating a bounce and support forming here.
That being said, this is still a high-risk area.
If Bitcoin just drops straight through support, it would be a pretty ugly red day. The key level I am watching is around $80,800. If we lose that level properly, then I would expect price to move lower towards $79,000–$78,500.
So for now, I am still bullish, but this is definitely a level where risk needs to be respected.
Switching to 15m Timeframe for more perspective if we lose the support because i will close and wait for a new setup should that happen. I just know its unlikely if we trade lower that holding an underwater long makes sense.
As it is, support is holding, you cannot trade this on 1m candles, its too stressful, your life is much happier on higher timeframes.
As it is, support is holding, you cannot trade this on 1m candles, its too stressful, your life is much happier on higher timeframes.
Right now, we need to understand the range.
We need to know where the bottom of the range is, and where the top of the range is.
For now, I’m hoping this area around $80,700 is the bottom of the range.
You also need to remember: I have dollar cost averaged into this position, so my entry is no longer as clean as it was originally.
That being said, the trade sizing is now quite aggressive. If I can hold onto it, this could still turn into a very good trade.
But sometimes, you simply cannot hold onto these positions.
Sometimes the chart says no.
So right now, this is a pure waiting game.
The key question is simple: does support show up here?
If support forms, then I’m looking for Bitcoin to push back towards $81,600.
That would be roughly a $500 move, and with my current trade size, that could mean around $2,000–$2,500 profit on the Bitcoin trade.
The SHIB trade should also benefit if Bitcoin starts pushing higher again.
And if Bitcoin can hold around these levels, then I think altcoins are likely to continue ripping.
Altcoins are already showing strength now we just need Bitcoin to hold the line.
We need to know where the bottom of the range is, and where the top of the range is.
For now, I’m hoping this area around $80,700 is the bottom of the range.
You also need to remember: I have dollar cost averaged into this position, so my entry is no longer as clean as it was originally.
That being said, the trade sizing is now quite aggressive. If I can hold onto it, this could still turn into a very good trade.
But sometimes, you simply cannot hold onto these positions.
Sometimes the chart says no.
So right now, this is a pure waiting game.
The key question is simple: does support show up here?
If support forms, then I’m looking for Bitcoin to push back towards $81,600.
That would be roughly a $500 move, and with my current trade size, that could mean around $2,000–$2,500 profit on the Bitcoin trade.
The SHIB trade should also benefit if Bitcoin starts pushing higher again.
And if Bitcoin can hold around these levels, then I think altcoins are likely to continue ripping.
Altcoins are already showing strength now we just need Bitcoin to hold the line.