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BITCOIN WARNING: UK CHAOS BEGINS
BITCOIN LIVE | BITCOIN PRICE | BITCOIN NEWS | CRYPTO NEWS | BTC TRADING
Bitcoin has been lagging behind while the stock market pushes into record highs, but that could be about to change.
In today’s livestream, we are looking at whether bitcoin is finally…
Bitcoin has been lagging behind while the stock market pushes into record highs, but that could be about to change.
In today’s livestream, we are looking at whether bitcoin is finally…
Ethereum Open Interest Update
This morning, Ethereum open interest has seen a significant drop, falling from around $13.4 billion down to approximately $12.7 billion.
That is a decline of roughly 5.2% in open interest, which is a meaningful reduction in market positioning.
What is interesting here is that the Ethereum price has only dropped around 2% during that same period.
Normally, when you see open interest fall this sharply, you would expect the move to be more clearly reflected in price. The fact that open interest has dropped by over 5%, while price has only moved down around 2%, suggests that a meaningful amount of leverage has been flushed out without the market fully breaking down yet.
However, this is still something to be cautious about.
If open interest continues to fall into Monday, it could be an early sign that capital is starting to leave the market again. That would make the current structure look less bullish and could increase the probability of further downside if buyers fail to step back in.
For now, the key takeaway is simple:
Ethereum open interest is falling faster than price.
That usually means leverage is being removed from the market, and when that happens, momentum can start to weaken.
In the next post, I will cover the same situation currently developing on Bitcoin.
This morning, Ethereum open interest has seen a significant drop, falling from around $13.4 billion down to approximately $12.7 billion.
That is a decline of roughly 5.2% in open interest, which is a meaningful reduction in market positioning.
What is interesting here is that the Ethereum price has only dropped around 2% during that same period.
Normally, when you see open interest fall this sharply, you would expect the move to be more clearly reflected in price. The fact that open interest has dropped by over 5%, while price has only moved down around 2%, suggests that a meaningful amount of leverage has been flushed out without the market fully breaking down yet.
However, this is still something to be cautious about.
If open interest continues to fall into Monday, it could be an early sign that capital is starting to leave the market again. That would make the current structure look less bullish and could increase the probability of further downside if buyers fail to step back in.
For now, the key takeaway is simple:
Ethereum open interest is falling faster than price.
That usually means leverage is being removed from the market, and when that happens, momentum can start to weaken.
In the next post, I will cover the same situation currently developing on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Open Interest Update
This morning, Bitcoin is showing the same warning sign that we are seeing on Ethereum.
Bitcoin price has fallen from around $82,500 down to approximately $80,808, which is a decline of roughly 2.05%.
At the same time, Bitcoin open interest has fallen from around $26.23 billion down to approximately $25.61 billion, which is a drop of roughly 2.36%.
That means open interest is falling slightly harder than price.
On its own, that suggests leverage is being removed from the market faster than Bitcoin itself is moving down. This is not necessarily a full breakdown yet, but it does show that confidence is easing.
The bigger picture is also worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin open interest recently peaked around $28 billion, and it is now sitting closer to $25.61 billion. That is a decline of roughly 8.5% from the recent open interest high.
If you round that current figure down to $25 billion, the drop from $28 billion is closer to 10.7%.
Either way, the message is the same:
Bitcoin open interest is falling, leverage is being removed, and market confidence appears to be weakening at the start of the week.
Based on this information alone, the market does not look particularly bullish this morning. It looks more bearish than bullish.
Next, I will be checking the Bitcoin liquidation heatmaps to see whether the liquidity structure confirms this weakness or if there is still a reason to expect another upside move.
This morning, Bitcoin is showing the same warning sign that we are seeing on Ethereum.
Bitcoin price has fallen from around $82,500 down to approximately $80,808, which is a decline of roughly 2.05%.
At the same time, Bitcoin open interest has fallen from around $26.23 billion down to approximately $25.61 billion, which is a drop of roughly 2.36%.
That means open interest is falling slightly harder than price.
On its own, that suggests leverage is being removed from the market faster than Bitcoin itself is moving down. This is not necessarily a full breakdown yet, but it does show that confidence is easing.
The bigger picture is also worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin open interest recently peaked around $28 billion, and it is now sitting closer to $25.61 billion. That is a decline of roughly 8.5% from the recent open interest high.
If you round that current figure down to $25 billion, the drop from $28 billion is closer to 10.7%.
Either way, the message is the same:
Bitcoin open interest is falling, leverage is being removed, and market confidence appears to be weakening at the start of the week.
Based on this information alone, the market does not look particularly bullish this morning. It looks more bearish than bullish.
Next, I will be checking the Bitcoin liquidation heatmaps to see whether the liquidity structure confirms this weakness or if there is still a reason to expect another upside move.
Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap Update
Starting with the one-year Bitcoin liquidation heatmap, the first thing that stands out is the large liquidity range sitting much lower, around the $60,000 region.
That remains the major downside liquidity zone on the higher timeframe.
However, directly below the current Bitcoin price, there does not appear to be a major liquidation build-up yet. That is important, because it means the downside is not currently showing the same kind of immediate liquidity magnet that would normally suggest a fast move lower is guaranteed.
Above price, liquidity still looks relatively stacked. There appears to be a deeper range of liquidity sitting overhead, which means the market may still have a reason to move back up and attack those levels.
At this stage, the one-year heatmap does not allow us to draw a definitive conclusion. The main takeaway is simply this:
There is major liquidity much lower around $60,000, but there has not yet been a significant liquidation build-up directly below the current Bitcoin price.
When we compare this with the actual Bitcoin price chart and look at the VRVP, the structure starts to make more sense.
The VRVP also suggests that there is not a huge amount of volume or liquidity sitting just below the current price. But interestingly, there may be even less liquidity sitting directly above it.
That means despite the recent drop in open interest, Bitcoin may still have an upside magnet in the short term.
So the market is slightly mixed here.
Open interest is falling, which shows confidence is weakening. But the liquidation heatmap and VRVP do not yet show a clear, immediate reason for Bitcoin to collapse from here.
For now, the structure suggests that Bitcoin could still be pulled back towards the upside liquidity before any larger downside move develops.
Starting with the one-year Bitcoin liquidation heatmap, the first thing that stands out is the large liquidity range sitting much lower, around the $60,000 region.
That remains the major downside liquidity zone on the higher timeframe.
However, directly below the current Bitcoin price, there does not appear to be a major liquidation build-up yet. That is important, because it means the downside is not currently showing the same kind of immediate liquidity magnet that would normally suggest a fast move lower is guaranteed.
Above price, liquidity still looks relatively stacked. There appears to be a deeper range of liquidity sitting overhead, which means the market may still have a reason to move back up and attack those levels.
At this stage, the one-year heatmap does not allow us to draw a definitive conclusion. The main takeaway is simply this:
There is major liquidity much lower around $60,000, but there has not yet been a significant liquidation build-up directly below the current Bitcoin price.
When we compare this with the actual Bitcoin price chart and look at the VRVP, the structure starts to make more sense.
The VRVP also suggests that there is not a huge amount of volume or liquidity sitting just below the current price. But interestingly, there may be even less liquidity sitting directly above it.
That means despite the recent drop in open interest, Bitcoin may still have an upside magnet in the short term.
So the market is slightly mixed here.
Open interest is falling, which shows confidence is weakening. But the liquidation heatmap and VRVP do not yet show a clear, immediate reason for Bitcoin to collapse from here.
For now, the structure suggests that Bitcoin could still be pulled back towards the upside liquidity before any larger downside move develops.
Bitcoin One-Month Liquidation Heatmap Update
The one-month Bitcoin liquidation heatmap is showing Bitcoin in complete no-man’s land.
From roughly $83,000 down to $79,000, there is very little meaningful liquidation density. The major liquidity sits outside this range, both above and below price.
That means the heatmap is not giving a clean bullish or bearish signal right now.
Bitcoin is simply trading in the middle of a thin liquidity zone.
Until price breaks clearly above $83,000 or below $79,000, this remains a very neutral area.
The next real move likely comes once Bitcoin leaves this range and starts moving towards one of the larger liquidity pockets on either side.
The one-month Bitcoin liquidation heatmap is showing Bitcoin in complete no-man’s land.
From roughly $83,000 down to $79,000, there is very little meaningful liquidation density. The major liquidity sits outside this range, both above and below price.
That means the heatmap is not giving a clean bullish or bearish signal right now.
Bitcoin is simply trading in the middle of a thin liquidity zone.
Until price breaks clearly above $83,000 or below $79,000, this remains a very neutral area.
The next real move likely comes once Bitcoin leaves this range and starts moving towards one of the larger liquidity pockets on either side.
Bitcoin One-Week Liquidation Heatmap Update
The one-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap confirms the same structure in more detail.
The key range is clear:
Breakout level: $83,000
Breakdown level: $79,000
Bitcoin is currently trading between these two levels, and whichever side breaks first is likely to decide the next major move.
If Bitcoin breaks above $83,000, the trade becomes upside continuation.
If Bitcoin breaks below $79,000, the trade becomes downside continuation.
This is not the area to overcomplicate things. The market is compressed, liquidity is sitting outside the range, and a larger move is likely coming soon.
Have your wits about you here.
The clean trade is to wait for confirmation, then trade the breakout or breakdown accordingly.
A major move is building, and I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin move 20% once this range finally breaks.
The one-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap confirms the same structure in more detail.
The key range is clear:
Breakout level: $83,000
Breakdown level: $79,000
Bitcoin is currently trading between these two levels, and whichever side breaks first is likely to decide the next major move.
If Bitcoin breaks above $83,000, the trade becomes upside continuation.
If Bitcoin breaks below $79,000, the trade becomes downside continuation.
This is not the area to overcomplicate things. The market is compressed, liquidity is sitting outside the range, and a larger move is likely coming soon.
Have your wits about you here.
The clean trade is to wait for confirmation, then trade the breakout or breakdown accordingly.
A major move is building, and I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin move 20% once this range finally breaks.
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Bitcoin Price Structure Update
This is where things start to get very interesting.
We are now looking at the current Bitcoin price structure, and next I will compare this against other crypto charts and stock market charts.
If Bitcoin were to repeat the same move down that we saw from the previous bear flag breakdown, the measured move would be extremely aggressive. In theory, that would suggest downside towards at least $47,000, and potentially even as low as $30,000.
Realistically, something very severe would probably need to happen for that scenario to fully play out, so I am not treating that as my base case right now.
What is much more realistic is that Bitcoin is now very close to the next major liquidity range, sitting around $87,000.
A move into that area followed by rejection would make a lot of sense technically, and could send Bitcoin back down towards the $60,000 range.
On the VRVP, we can see three major liquidity and volume ranges:
* $112,000 — the upper peak range
* $90,000 — a major overhead range
* $60,000–$70,000 — the major lower range
Bitcoin is currently trading between these zones, and I do not expect it to remain here for much longer.
This also lines up with the Bitcoin liquidation heatmap.
A clean break into either major liquidity range is likely to continue pushing price in that direction. If Bitcoin breaks higher, it can be pulled towards the upper liquidity. If Bitcoin breaks lower, the downside liquidity becomes the target.
That means we are getting very close to a high-quality trade setup.
The key is not to guess the move early.
The key is to prepare now, wait for confirmation, and then trade the break in whichever direction the market chooses.
This week could be very important.
This is where things start to get very interesting.
We are now looking at the current Bitcoin price structure, and next I will compare this against other crypto charts and stock market charts.
If Bitcoin were to repeat the same move down that we saw from the previous bear flag breakdown, the measured move would be extremely aggressive. In theory, that would suggest downside towards at least $47,000, and potentially even as low as $30,000.
Realistically, something very severe would probably need to happen for that scenario to fully play out, so I am not treating that as my base case right now.
What is much more realistic is that Bitcoin is now very close to the next major liquidity range, sitting around $87,000.
A move into that area followed by rejection would make a lot of sense technically, and could send Bitcoin back down towards the $60,000 range.
On the VRVP, we can see three major liquidity and volume ranges:
* $112,000 — the upper peak range
* $90,000 — a major overhead range
* $60,000–$70,000 — the major lower range
Bitcoin is currently trading between these zones, and I do not expect it to remain here for much longer.
This also lines up with the Bitcoin liquidation heatmap.
A clean break into either major liquidity range is likely to continue pushing price in that direction. If Bitcoin breaks higher, it can be pulled towards the upper liquidity. If Bitcoin breaks lower, the downside liquidity becomes the target.
That means we are getting very close to a high-quality trade setup.
The key is not to guess the move early.
The key is to prepare now, wait for confirmation, and then trade the break in whichever direction the market chooses.
This week could be very important.
Bitcoin Wyckoff Accumulation Update
Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,800.
Technically, we appear to have peaked on this Wyckoff structure near the $84,000 region. There is still plenty of bullish expectation in the market this week, but that is exactly why caution is needed.
Bitcoin has now held a strong uptrend since the middle of April, moving from the mid $70,000s to almost the mid $80,000s. More broadly, we have been trending higher since March, and from the January lows, Bitcoin has effectively been rising for nearly four months.
At some point, markets need to reset.
When everything starts looking comfortable again, that is often when risk begins to increase. Based on the structure I am watching, the Wyckoff scenario now looks more relevant than ever.
The key levels are simple:
Lose $78,000 and risk increases sharply.
Lose $76,000 and the structure becomes extremely dangerous.
If those levels break, the market could unwind very aggressively. That would likely trigger heavy downside pressure, forced selling, liquidations, and a much deeper correction than most people are currently prepared for.
So be very careful here.
The upside is not dead yet, but the downside risk is now very real. If the Wyckoff structure plays out, this could become a brutal move lower.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,800.
Technically, we appear to have peaked on this Wyckoff structure near the $84,000 region. There is still plenty of bullish expectation in the market this week, but that is exactly why caution is needed.
Bitcoin has now held a strong uptrend since the middle of April, moving from the mid $70,000s to almost the mid $80,000s. More broadly, we have been trending higher since March, and from the January lows, Bitcoin has effectively been rising for nearly four months.
At some point, markets need to reset.
When everything starts looking comfortable again, that is often when risk begins to increase. Based on the structure I am watching, the Wyckoff scenario now looks more relevant than ever.
The key levels are simple:
Lose $78,000 and risk increases sharply.
Lose $76,000 and the structure becomes extremely dangerous.
If those levels break, the market could unwind very aggressively. That would likely trigger heavy downside pressure, forced selling, liquidations, and a much deeper correction than most people are currently prepared for.
So be very careful here.
The upside is not dead yet, but the downside risk is now very real. If the Wyckoff structure plays out, this could become a brutal move lower.
Altcoin Market Update
Around one week ago, I said that altcoins looked stronger than Bitcoin and were likely to start outperforming BTC.
That has now been the case for the past week. Altcoins are gaining momentum against Bitcoin, and so far, that analysis has been correct. We are now profiting from that rotation.
Solana Is Leading The Charge
The key question now is simple: how much higher can Solana go?
On the SOL/BTC chart, Solana is continuing to gain strength, and the next major liquidity target appears to be around 0.0012546 BTC.
That is the peak liquidity range marked by the white line on the chart.
Can Solana Hold Momentum?
The important question is whether Solana can hold that momentum once it reaches that level, or whether it starts to lose strength.
A lot of that will likely depend on broader market sentiment today, especially the stock market.
If equities remain strong and risk appetite stays positive, then altcoins can continue leading.
Market Sentiment Is Improving
Recently, markets have been feeling much more constructive.
That supports the idea that this altcoin recovery can continue, especially now that the extreme fear has started to calm down.
Crypto traders naturally become pessimistic after every rally. The assumption is always that things cannot keep improving.
But right now, the market is proving that altcoins still have strength.
Bitcoin Is Still In No Man’s Land
Bitcoin is not giving us a clear direction right now.
It is still trading in no man’s land, which means the best opportunities may continue to come from altcoins instead.
And so far, altcoins are actually leading the charge.
The Wyckoff Risk Still Exists
The main warning remains the Bitcoin Wyckoff accumulation structure.
However, that does not become a serious issue unless Bitcoin loses the key structure below $76,000.
Until Bitcoin is trading below that level, there is not much reason to panic.
My View
For now, the strategy is simple:
Respect the Wyckoff risk, but continue looking for opportunities while altcoins are showing strength.
The market is still offering trades, and until that changes, we should keep taking the opportunities in front of us.
Around one week ago, I said that altcoins looked stronger than Bitcoin and were likely to start outperforming BTC.
That has now been the case for the past week. Altcoins are gaining momentum against Bitcoin, and so far, that analysis has been correct. We are now profiting from that rotation.
Solana Is Leading The Charge
The key question now is simple: how much higher can Solana go?
On the SOL/BTC chart, Solana is continuing to gain strength, and the next major liquidity target appears to be around 0.0012546 BTC.
That is the peak liquidity range marked by the white line on the chart.
Can Solana Hold Momentum?
The important question is whether Solana can hold that momentum once it reaches that level, or whether it starts to lose strength.
A lot of that will likely depend on broader market sentiment today, especially the stock market.
If equities remain strong and risk appetite stays positive, then altcoins can continue leading.
Market Sentiment Is Improving
Recently, markets have been feeling much more constructive.
That supports the idea that this altcoin recovery can continue, especially now that the extreme fear has started to calm down.
Crypto traders naturally become pessimistic after every rally. The assumption is always that things cannot keep improving.
But right now, the market is proving that altcoins still have strength.
Bitcoin Is Still In No Man’s Land
Bitcoin is not giving us a clear direction right now.
It is still trading in no man’s land, which means the best opportunities may continue to come from altcoins instead.
And so far, altcoins are actually leading the charge.
The Wyckoff Risk Still Exists
The main warning remains the Bitcoin Wyckoff accumulation structure.
However, that does not become a serious issue unless Bitcoin loses the key structure below $76,000.
Until Bitcoin is trading below that level, there is not much reason to panic.
My View
For now, the strategy is simple:
Respect the Wyckoff risk, but continue looking for opportunities while altcoins are showing strength.
The market is still offering trades, and until that changes, we should keep taking the opportunities in front of us.
News Sentiment Mapping
This is something I can continue doing in more detail if people find it useful.
I have started charting the headlines on the CNBC homepage and marking them as broadly bullish or bearish for markets.
The exact headline does not always matter in isolation. What matters is that each headline contributes to a small part of the wider economic picture, and collectively, that can influence risk appetite.
How I Am Reading It
The more green you see, the more supportive the news environment is for higher prices.
The more red you see, the more pressure there is on markets and the more likely prices are to move lower.
For example, Trump and Xi Jinping shaking hands would generally be interpreted as bullish. Markets like diplomacy, progress, and the idea of trade tensions cooling.
The risk normally comes after the meeting, not before it. Leading into it, the tone is usually sunshine, rainbows, smiles, and handshakes. After that, turbulence can return.
On the other side, if Iran is making aggressive statements or geopolitical risk is increasing, that would be bearish because it adds uncertainty back into markets.
Why This Matters For Bitcoin
What is interesting right now is that the news flow is mixed.
We have both bullish and bearish headlines showing up at the same time, which lines up perfectly with where Bitcoin is currently trading.
Bitcoin is stuck between two major liquidity ranges, waiting for the next clear catalyst.
That catalyst could come from more bullish news pushing price higher, or more bearish news dragging price lower.
My View
This is why mapping news sentiment can be useful.
It gives us another way to understand why Bitcoin is trapped in this current range.
Right now, the market is not getting a clean signal from the news cycle. It is getting mixed information, and that matches the price action.
Bitcoin is waiting.
The next strong wave of bullish or bearish headlines could be what finally pushes price out of this range.
This is something I can continue doing in more detail if people find it useful.
I have started charting the headlines on the CNBC homepage and marking them as broadly bullish or bearish for markets.
The exact headline does not always matter in isolation. What matters is that each headline contributes to a small part of the wider economic picture, and collectively, that can influence risk appetite.
How I Am Reading It
The more green you see, the more supportive the news environment is for higher prices.
The more red you see, the more pressure there is on markets and the more likely prices are to move lower.
For example, Trump and Xi Jinping shaking hands would generally be interpreted as bullish. Markets like diplomacy, progress, and the idea of trade tensions cooling.
The risk normally comes after the meeting, not before it. Leading into it, the tone is usually sunshine, rainbows, smiles, and handshakes. After that, turbulence can return.
On the other side, if Iran is making aggressive statements or geopolitical risk is increasing, that would be bearish because it adds uncertainty back into markets.
Why This Matters For Bitcoin
What is interesting right now is that the news flow is mixed.
We have both bullish and bearish headlines showing up at the same time, which lines up perfectly with where Bitcoin is currently trading.
Bitcoin is stuck between two major liquidity ranges, waiting for the next clear catalyst.
That catalyst could come from more bullish news pushing price higher, or more bearish news dragging price lower.
My View
This is why mapping news sentiment can be useful.
It gives us another way to understand why Bitcoin is trapped in this current range.
Right now, the market is not getting a clean signal from the news cycle. It is getting mixed information, and that matches the price action.
Bitcoin is waiting.
The next strong wave of bullish or bearish headlines could be what finally pushes price out of this range.
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Evening Bitcoin Update
I have decided to close my Bitcoin short position.
The reason is simple: the market currently looks like it wants to test the upper liquidity before making a more decisive move.
Bitcoin is still trading in no man’s land, and when price is sitting between major liquidity zones, it becomes dangerous to hold too much conviction in either direction too early.
The downside setup still exists, but it has not confirmed yet.
For now, Bitcoin has not broken the key lower levels, and the market appears more interested in moving upwards to attack liquidity above price.
That makes holding a short here less attractive.
This is not a clean breakdown yet.
Until Bitcoin loses the lower structure properly, shorting too aggressively can become a mistake. In this type of market, price can squeeze higher first, take out upside liquidity, and only then decide whether it wants to reverse.
So for now, I am stepping aside from the short.
I would rather close the position, protect capital, and wait for a cleaner setup than force a trade in the middle of the range.
Bitcoin is still in no man’s land.
The correct move here is patience, not overcommitment.
I have decided to close my Bitcoin short position.
The reason is simple: the market currently looks like it wants to test the upper liquidity before making a more decisive move.
Bitcoin is still trading in no man’s land, and when price is sitting between major liquidity zones, it becomes dangerous to hold too much conviction in either direction too early.
The downside setup still exists, but it has not confirmed yet.
For now, Bitcoin has not broken the key lower levels, and the market appears more interested in moving upwards to attack liquidity above price.
That makes holding a short here less attractive.
This is not a clean breakdown yet.
Until Bitcoin loses the lower structure properly, shorting too aggressively can become a mistake. In this type of market, price can squeeze higher first, take out upside liquidity, and only then decide whether it wants to reverse.
So for now, I am stepping aside from the short.
I would rather close the position, protect capital, and wait for a cleaner setup than force a trade in the middle of the range.
Bitcoin is still in no man’s land.
The correct move here is patience, not overcommitment.
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