Even yesterday, the analysis was right. I closed the trade because I needed to sleep, which is frustrating because the trade would have paid. But to be fair, I did actually reopen it before bed because I struggled to ignore the setup after waiting for it all day.
That is the reality of trading with conviction. When the analysis is strong and the setup is there, it becomes difficult to pass on the opportunity.
But we also have to be careful not to let conviction turn into overconfidence.
That is why we test the bias every day.
That is the reality of trading with conviction. When the analysis is strong and the setup is there, it becomes difficult to pass on the opportunity.
But we also have to be careful not to let conviction turn into overconfidence.
That is why we test the bias every day.
👍11
Forwarded from TMG CHAT
BITCOIN VOLUME OVERVIEW
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There is nothing bullish in the Bitcoin volume overview right now.
Futures volume is up 9.72%, but spot volume is down 4.09%.
That tells us people are not aggressively selling spot Bitcoin here, but they are also not buying it. There is no real spot demand for the dip, and there is no panic spot selling either.
This is no man’s land.
We have been talking about this since starting Chart Advantage. The market is stuck in that awkward zone where price is moving, but the underlying spot market is not giving strong conviction either way.
Now, futures volume being up 9.72% looks good on the surface, but you always have to ask: what side of the volume is increasing?
Looking at futures taker buy versus taker sell, the answer is clear. Sell-side taker volume is leading.
Over the past 24 hours, 50.65% of futures taker volume has been sell-side.
On spot, taker sell volume is also leading at around 50.5%.
So there is slightly more aggressive selling on futures than on spot, but both markets are leaning sell-side.
This is not a contradiction with what I’ve said before about longs being opened. You have to understand the difference between the overall market and taker volume.
Taker orders are market orders.
Maker orders are limit orders.
Right now, the traders hitting the market aggressively are leaning sell-side. They are not patiently placing limit orders; they are actively selling into the market.
That drags price down.
And on spot volume, taker sell pressure is one of the most important metrics because it shows whether people are actually buying the underlying asset or dumping it.
Right now, spot is not giving us strong demand.
The Bitcoin price versus volume history chart makes this clearer.
When spot volume recently dropped this low, there are two useful comparisons. Around May 9th and 10th, we had an uptick in volume and an uptick in price. That is the exception.
The better comparison is the period where Bitcoin dropped from around $79,000 to $78,000. During that move, volume spiked, then started falling again. That looks much more similar to what we are seeing now.
The key point is this: recently, most major volume spikes have come with price moving down, not up.
A big spike in volume has generally meant a big move lower. I’ve highlighted those examples in blue on the chart. The light blue one is the main exception where volume moved up with price.
This is why trading is probabilities, not certainty.
But based on the recent pattern, if we see another volume surge soon, I would not automatically assume it is bullish. More often than not recently, volume spikes have been linked to downside moves.
So from the volume history, this does not look bullish. It looks bearish.
Now moving to Bitcoin volume distribution, spot currently makes up around 6.8% of total Bitcoin volume, while futures make up 93.2%.
Earlier this month, spot was above 7%. Now it is down to 6.8%.
That tells us spot participation is fading relative to futures.
Futures drive the market short term.
Spot drives the market long term.
From this, nothing is getting better. Nothing is collapsing either, but there is still no evidence of strong spot demand returning.
The final chart is Bitcoin price with aggregated open interest underneath.
This one is very clear.
Open interest is going down while price is going up.
When price rises and open interest falls, it usually means shorts are closing and taking profit. That can push price up, but it is not the same as fresh long exposure entering the market.
So this muddies the water.
The move up may not be genuine bullish demand. It may just be short covering.
before we can be properly confident in the next trade, we need to compare this with Ethereum data, then map the Bitcoin levels above and below.
The market is not giving a clean answer yet.
Spot demand is weak. Futures are still dominant. Taker volume is leaning sell-side. Open interest is falling while price rises.
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There is nothing bullish in the Bitcoin volume overview right now.
Futures volume is up 9.72%, but spot volume is down 4.09%.
That tells us people are not aggressively selling spot Bitcoin here, but they are also not buying it. There is no real spot demand for the dip, and there is no panic spot selling either.
This is no man’s land.
We have been talking about this since starting Chart Advantage. The market is stuck in that awkward zone where price is moving, but the underlying spot market is not giving strong conviction either way.
Now, futures volume being up 9.72% looks good on the surface, but you always have to ask: what side of the volume is increasing?
Looking at futures taker buy versus taker sell, the answer is clear. Sell-side taker volume is leading.
Over the past 24 hours, 50.65% of futures taker volume has been sell-side.
On spot, taker sell volume is also leading at around 50.5%.
So there is slightly more aggressive selling on futures than on spot, but both markets are leaning sell-side.
This is not a contradiction with what I’ve said before about longs being opened. You have to understand the difference between the overall market and taker volume.
Taker orders are market orders.
Maker orders are limit orders.
Right now, the traders hitting the market aggressively are leaning sell-side. They are not patiently placing limit orders; they are actively selling into the market.
That drags price down.
And on spot volume, taker sell pressure is one of the most important metrics because it shows whether people are actually buying the underlying asset or dumping it.
Right now, spot is not giving us strong demand.
The Bitcoin price versus volume history chart makes this clearer.
When spot volume recently dropped this low, there are two useful comparisons. Around May 9th and 10th, we had an uptick in volume and an uptick in price. That is the exception.
The better comparison is the period where Bitcoin dropped from around $79,000 to $78,000. During that move, volume spiked, then started falling again. That looks much more similar to what we are seeing now.
The key point is this: recently, most major volume spikes have come with price moving down, not up.
A big spike in volume has generally meant a big move lower. I’ve highlighted those examples in blue on the chart. The light blue one is the main exception where volume moved up with price.
This is why trading is probabilities, not certainty.
But based on the recent pattern, if we see another volume surge soon, I would not automatically assume it is bullish. More often than not recently, volume spikes have been linked to downside moves.
So from the volume history, this does not look bullish. It looks bearish.
Now moving to Bitcoin volume distribution, spot currently makes up around 6.8% of total Bitcoin volume, while futures make up 93.2%.
Earlier this month, spot was above 7%. Now it is down to 6.8%.
That tells us spot participation is fading relative to futures.
Futures drive the market short term.
Spot drives the market long term.
From this, nothing is getting better. Nothing is collapsing either, but there is still no evidence of strong spot demand returning.
The final chart is Bitcoin price with aggregated open interest underneath.
This one is very clear.
Open interest is going down while price is going up.
When price rises and open interest falls, it usually means shorts are closing and taking profit. That can push price up, but it is not the same as fresh long exposure entering the market.
So this muddies the water.
The move up may not be genuine bullish demand. It may just be short covering.
before we can be properly confident in the next trade, we need to compare this with Ethereum data, then map the Bitcoin levels above and below.
The market is not giving a clean answer yet.
Spot demand is weak. Futures are still dominant. Taker volume is leaning sell-side. Open interest is falling while price rises.
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OVERALL MARKET LONGS VS SHORTS
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Before moving on to Ethereum, I want to quickly point this out.
This is the overall crypto market longs versus shorts, not just Bitcoin.
Across the past 24 hours, there is roughly $1 billion more short exposure than long exposure.
Across the past 12 hours, there is around $200 million more shorts than longs.
Across the past 4 hours, there is around $100 million more shorts than longs.
Across the past 1 hour, there is again close to $100 million more shorts than longs.
So the actual positioning data is clearly not bullish. Traders are still leaning short across the market.
The reason I bring this up is because this is exactly why I do not trust simple sentiment indicators.
On the same website, there is a “current Bitcoin sentiment” poll showing 19% very bullish, 33% bullish, and only 28% bearish.
So more than half the people voting are bullish, while the real positioning data is showing more shorts than longs across every major recent timeframe.
That does not line up.
I am not saying we ignore sentiment completely, but this is why you cannot trade off that kind of data by itself. I do not know where they pull the sentiment sample from, but that is the kind of indicator that can make people lose money if they trust it blindly.
We do not trade off opinions.
We follow the money.
Right now, the money says the market is still positioned defensively, with more short exposure building across the wider crypto market.
Following the money is the edge. It is what I have been doing for years, and it is what I want everyone in this group to learn properly.
The goal here is not to become bullish or bearish by habit.
The goal is to read the market correctly, understand where the money is flowing, and become better traders because of it.
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Before moving on to Ethereum, I want to quickly point this out.
This is the overall crypto market longs versus shorts, not just Bitcoin.
Across the past 24 hours, there is roughly $1 billion more short exposure than long exposure.
Across the past 12 hours, there is around $200 million more shorts than longs.
Across the past 4 hours, there is around $100 million more shorts than longs.
Across the past 1 hour, there is again close to $100 million more shorts than longs.
So the actual positioning data is clearly not bullish. Traders are still leaning short across the market.
The reason I bring this up is because this is exactly why I do not trust simple sentiment indicators.
On the same website, there is a “current Bitcoin sentiment” poll showing 19% very bullish, 33% bullish, and only 28% bearish.
So more than half the people voting are bullish, while the real positioning data is showing more shorts than longs across every major recent timeframe.
That does not line up.
I am not saying we ignore sentiment completely, but this is why you cannot trade off that kind of data by itself. I do not know where they pull the sentiment sample from, but that is the kind of indicator that can make people lose money if they trust it blindly.
We do not trade off opinions.
We follow the money.
Right now, the money says the market is still positioned defensively, with more short exposure building across the wider crypto market.
Following the money is the edge. It is what I have been doing for years, and it is what I want everyone in this group to learn properly.
The goal here is not to become bullish or bearish by habit.
The goal is to read the market correctly, understand where the money is flowing, and become better traders because of it.
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ETHEREUM MARKET STRUCTURE CHECK
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Before we move on to the chart analysis, I want to look at Ethereum and what it is telling us about the wider market.
It feels like we are going to get a much clearer signal within the next hour or so. The market is compressing, volume is thin, and the next proper move should give us a better read on today’s direction.
Starting with Ethereum funding rates, there is one clear anomaly on the screen: KuCoin.
KuCoin is showing a much more bullish funding bias, and it is doing the same thing on XRP, HYPE, and Dogecoin. That matters because KuCoin has a large retail trading audience, and retail seems to be leaning heavily long on those markets.
But when we look at the bigger-money exchanges, the ones I’ve underlined in red, the picture is different. Most of those are neutral to bearish.
So I am not treating KuCoin as the main signal here. It looks more like an exchange-specific anomaly, likely caused by retail positioning and thinner liquidity.
Across the bigger venues, Ethereum funding does not look bullish. It looks neutral to bearish, which supports the downside case.
Moving to the 24-hour Ethereum liquidation heat map, the main level is around $2,100. Above current price, there is not much liquidity. Below current price, there is also not a huge amount, which tells us people are not trading ETH with much conviction right now.
Spot markets are weak. Futures are cooling off. Volume is falling.
Those are all bearish warning signs.
The 48-hour liquidation heat map gives a bit more detail. There is slightly more liquidity here, and I’ve highlighted an area where a small, shadowy liquidity pocket has formed. The last time Ethereum formed something similar on this timeframe, it did not take long for price to move into it and take it out.
So based on that chart, a short-term rise in ETH is still possible. I would not be surprised to see Ethereum attack the range I’ve boxed out before deciding the next real move.
The one-week liquidation heat map gives the clearest wider picture. There is more liquidity above price than below, and that liquidity has been building for longer.
On the surface, that sounds bullish.
But in a bearish market, that is also normal. When price trends lower, shorts build above price, and liquidation levels naturally stack overhead. So we cannot draw a clean bullish conclusion just because there is more liquidity above.
To make sense of the heat maps, we need to bring in open interest.
Ethereum open interest is no longer giving us the same clean signal it gave earlier in the week. Previously, we had a clear negative correlation: open interest was rising while price was falling. That suggested new short positions were entering the market and pushing price down.
That relationship changed around May 18th.
At that point, open interest dropped while price also dropped, which suggests a larger long position exited the market. Since then, we have not seen a major change in open interest or price. The market has mostly gone quiet, with volume, liquidity, and interest all dropping off.
This is why the CME gap is not enough by itself.
Yes, Bitcoin still has the CME gap around $79,000, but a CME gap is not magic. It is not a reason to trade by itself.
The CME gap trade works when the market has enough liquidity and volume to execute the move. When volume drops, liquidity drops, and participation dries up, that trade becomes much less reliable.
This is usually when CME gap trades fail.
So the Ethereum read is this:
Funding is neutral to bearish on the bigger venues.
Liquidity is thin.
Spot and futures volume are weak.
Open interest is no longer giving a clean directional signal.
The CME gap only matters if volume comes back.
For now, Ethereum is not giving me enough evidence to trust a strong bullish reversal. It still looks heavy, but the next hour or so should tell us whether the market is preparing for another leg down or a short-term liquidity grab first.
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Before we move on to the chart analysis, I want to look at Ethereum and what it is telling us about the wider market.
It feels like we are going to get a much clearer signal within the next hour or so. The market is compressing, volume is thin, and the next proper move should give us a better read on today’s direction.
Starting with Ethereum funding rates, there is one clear anomaly on the screen: KuCoin.
KuCoin is showing a much more bullish funding bias, and it is doing the same thing on XRP, HYPE, and Dogecoin. That matters because KuCoin has a large retail trading audience, and retail seems to be leaning heavily long on those markets.
But when we look at the bigger-money exchanges, the ones I’ve underlined in red, the picture is different. Most of those are neutral to bearish.
So I am not treating KuCoin as the main signal here. It looks more like an exchange-specific anomaly, likely caused by retail positioning and thinner liquidity.
Across the bigger venues, Ethereum funding does not look bullish. It looks neutral to bearish, which supports the downside case.
Moving to the 24-hour Ethereum liquidation heat map, the main level is around $2,100. Above current price, there is not much liquidity. Below current price, there is also not a huge amount, which tells us people are not trading ETH with much conviction right now.
Spot markets are weak. Futures are cooling off. Volume is falling.
Those are all bearish warning signs.
The 48-hour liquidation heat map gives a bit more detail. There is slightly more liquidity here, and I’ve highlighted an area where a small, shadowy liquidity pocket has formed. The last time Ethereum formed something similar on this timeframe, it did not take long for price to move into it and take it out.
So based on that chart, a short-term rise in ETH is still possible. I would not be surprised to see Ethereum attack the range I’ve boxed out before deciding the next real move.
The one-week liquidation heat map gives the clearest wider picture. There is more liquidity above price than below, and that liquidity has been building for longer.
On the surface, that sounds bullish.
But in a bearish market, that is also normal. When price trends lower, shorts build above price, and liquidation levels naturally stack overhead. So we cannot draw a clean bullish conclusion just because there is more liquidity above.
To make sense of the heat maps, we need to bring in open interest.
Ethereum open interest is no longer giving us the same clean signal it gave earlier in the week. Previously, we had a clear negative correlation: open interest was rising while price was falling. That suggested new short positions were entering the market and pushing price down.
That relationship changed around May 18th.
At that point, open interest dropped while price also dropped, which suggests a larger long position exited the market. Since then, we have not seen a major change in open interest or price. The market has mostly gone quiet, with volume, liquidity, and interest all dropping off.
This is why the CME gap is not enough by itself.
Yes, Bitcoin still has the CME gap around $79,000, but a CME gap is not magic. It is not a reason to trade by itself.
The CME gap trade works when the market has enough liquidity and volume to execute the move. When volume drops, liquidity drops, and participation dries up, that trade becomes much less reliable.
This is usually when CME gap trades fail.
So the Ethereum read is this:
Funding is neutral to bearish on the bigger venues.
Liquidity is thin.
Spot and futures volume are weak.
Open interest is no longer giving a clean directional signal.
The CME gap only matters if volume comes back.
For now, Ethereum is not giving me enough evidence to trust a strong bullish reversal. It still looks heavy, but the next hour or so should tell us whether the market is preparing for another leg down or a short-term liquidity grab first.
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BITCOIN CHART ANALYSIS: KEY UPSIDE SETUP
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Starting the chart analysis with the same Bitcoin chart I used in yesterday’s YouTube thumbnail.
This chart is still very relevant.
On the side of the VRVP, you can clearly see a major gap in liquidity, with the main liquidity range sitting around $79,000. That also lines up with the open CME gap, which is why this level matters so much.
So far, this chart is still correct.
Bitcoin is holding the key structure, and the retest around $76,750 the other day was bullish from a chart perspective. Price bounced from the outside of the structure and held the level.
Yes, the pattern is ugly. It almost looks like a hunchback head-and-shoulders structure. But ugly does not automatically mean bearish. The important part is that the retest held, and the upside liquidity around $79,000 is still sitting there.
Now, I want to show you an indicator my developers have been working on for years.
This indicator is normally behind a paywall because we have spent a lot of time and money developing it, but I want to show it here because the accuracy has been genuinely impressive.
I’ve marked the chart as clearly as possible so you can follow the logic.
Starting from the left side of the chart, the indicator takes a long position and then cashes it out nicely. I’ve marked that with a green tick because it was a good trade.
It then flips short and catches the next move down. Again, I’ve marked that with a green tick because the trade worked.
Then it turns long again and catches another strong upside move, which I’ve also marked as a successful trade.
After that, it takes a short position that starts correctly, but the move does not properly follow through. The initial direction was right, but the trade itself does not really make money, so I’ve marked that area with a red cross.
The next signal also gets the initial direction right, but the pump does not hold and the trade ends up losing a small amount. Again, I’ve marked that as a failed trade because we are not pretending the indicator is perfect.
Then there is another neutral long signal where not much happens.
After that, the indicator flips short around $80,300, and I’ve highlighted that area in blue on the chart. From that blue-marked short entry, Bitcoin falls all the way down towards around $77,000, which was an excellent trade.
Now here is the important part.
The indicator has just flipped green again, and I’ve highlighted that latest green flip with pink on the chart so you can clearly see the current signal.
The last time we saw this kind of green flip around these levels, Bitcoin pumped hard to the upside.
So the question now is simple:
Is this indicator telling us Bitcoin is about to move higher again?
I trust this indicator a lot. I do not follow it blindly, but it is one of the better tools we have built, and when it gives a fresh green signal at an important level, I pay attention.
This makes me take the short-term bullish case seriously.
It also makes me want to be very careful with the short position here, because if Bitcoin starts pushing from this structure, the move towards $79,000 becomes very realistic.
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Starting the chart analysis with the same Bitcoin chart I used in yesterday’s YouTube thumbnail.
This chart is still very relevant.
On the side of the VRVP, you can clearly see a major gap in liquidity, with the main liquidity range sitting around $79,000. That also lines up with the open CME gap, which is why this level matters so much.
So far, this chart is still correct.
Bitcoin is holding the key structure, and the retest around $76,750 the other day was bullish from a chart perspective. Price bounced from the outside of the structure and held the level.
Yes, the pattern is ugly. It almost looks like a hunchback head-and-shoulders structure. But ugly does not automatically mean bearish. The important part is that the retest held, and the upside liquidity around $79,000 is still sitting there.
Now, I want to show you an indicator my developers have been working on for years.
This indicator is normally behind a paywall because we have spent a lot of time and money developing it, but I want to show it here because the accuracy has been genuinely impressive.
I’ve marked the chart as clearly as possible so you can follow the logic.
Starting from the left side of the chart, the indicator takes a long position and then cashes it out nicely. I’ve marked that with a green tick because it was a good trade.
It then flips short and catches the next move down. Again, I’ve marked that with a green tick because the trade worked.
Then it turns long again and catches another strong upside move, which I’ve also marked as a successful trade.
After that, it takes a short position that starts correctly, but the move does not properly follow through. The initial direction was right, but the trade itself does not really make money, so I’ve marked that area with a red cross.
The next signal also gets the initial direction right, but the pump does not hold and the trade ends up losing a small amount. Again, I’ve marked that as a failed trade because we are not pretending the indicator is perfect.
Then there is another neutral long signal where not much happens.
After that, the indicator flips short around $80,300, and I’ve highlighted that area in blue on the chart. From that blue-marked short entry, Bitcoin falls all the way down towards around $77,000, which was an excellent trade.
Now here is the important part.
The indicator has just flipped green again, and I’ve highlighted that latest green flip with pink on the chart so you can clearly see the current signal.
The last time we saw this kind of green flip around these levels, Bitcoin pumped hard to the upside.
So the question now is simple:
Is this indicator telling us Bitcoin is about to move higher again?
I trust this indicator a lot. I do not follow it blindly, but it is one of the better tools we have built, and when it gives a fresh green signal at an important level, I pay attention.
This makes me take the short-term bullish case seriously.
It also makes me want to be very careful with the short position here, because if Bitcoin starts pushing from this structure, the move towards $79,000 becomes very realistic.
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BITCOIN CUP & HANDLE STRUCTURE
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This chart shows the wider cup and handle formation on Bitcoin.
The cup and handle is pretty clear to see, but the important point is that we still have not reached the top of the range. I’ve drawn the pink arrow pointing towards that level, around $79,000.
We have still not tested it.
At this point, if Bitcoin does move up and test that $79,000 region, it starts to become a problem for the short position because it would likely confirm another higher low.
A break of this trading range around $79,000 would suggest that the sideways accumulation we have seen recently has held. That would keep the mid-term bullish structure intact and could open the door for a move back towards $85,000.
The other issue is liquidity.
There is not a huge amount of liquidity sitting above this area, but there are still enough shorts positioned in the market that another push higher could squeeze them out again.
My short position is not going to get squeezed out easily, but it does make the trade more complicated.
We have now been holding this large short position for over a week, and I would quite like Bitcoin to finally move out of this range soon.
Upside or downside, I am not really bothered.
I just want the market to move.
I want the big move, because that is where the money is made.
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This chart shows the wider cup and handle formation on Bitcoin.
The cup and handle is pretty clear to see, but the important point is that we still have not reached the top of the range. I’ve drawn the pink arrow pointing towards that level, around $79,000.
We have still not tested it.
At this point, if Bitcoin does move up and test that $79,000 region, it starts to become a problem for the short position because it would likely confirm another higher low.
A break of this trading range around $79,000 would suggest that the sideways accumulation we have seen recently has held. That would keep the mid-term bullish structure intact and could open the door for a move back towards $85,000.
The other issue is liquidity.
There is not a huge amount of liquidity sitting above this area, but there are still enough shorts positioned in the market that another push higher could squeeze them out again.
My short position is not going to get squeezed out easily, but it does make the trade more complicated.
We have now been holding this large short position for over a week, and I would quite like Bitcoin to finally move out of this range soon.
Upside or downside, I am not really bothered.
I just want the market to move.
I want the big move, because that is where the money is made.
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WYCKOFF STRUCTURE VS UPSIDE LIQUIDITY
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The contrast to the upside magnet around $79,000 is the wider Wyckoff accumulation pattern.
This is the reason I am still in the longer-term short position, and it is why I still want to keep looking for short opportunities. To me, this structure is still very much in play.
At the bottom of the chart, you can see the small oscillator moving from red towards green. That is our momentum oscillator tool, which is also included inside the indicator I showed you a second ago.
The momentum oscillator is designed to show money flow and whether the market is gaining or losing momentum. Right now, it is showing that Bitcoin is still losing momentum. That may seem obvious from the chart, but it is useful to have the data confirming the read.
The red area you can see on the chart is also important. This indicator has effectively been short since around $108,000. It closed the short around $80,000 on the way back up, but before that, it caught the move all the way down towards around $52,000.
It is not perfect on exits. No indicator is.
But it is extremely strong at identifying entries, which is why we built it in the first place. The whole idea was to take the way I read markets, the way I look for entries, momentum shifts, resistance levels, and trend changes, and turn that into a system. We basically spent years trying to download my brain into an indicator.
Now, looking at this chart, the Wyckoff structure is still suggesting downside. The chart is showing a move towards around $72,000, but I also know that if we zoom out further, there is a much bigger level sitting around $60,000 as well.
The dotted lines are also important.
When you see a thick red dotted line, that is the indicator marking a strong resistance area where a short could make sense.
When you see a thick green dotted line, that is the opposite. It is marking an area where a long could make sense.
These are not always full trade signals. Think of them more like semi-trade levels. They show important areas where the market may react, even if the full confirmation setup has not triggered yet.
On this chart, the indicator has plotted a fairly thick red dotted line around $82,500, which tells me it sees that as an important resistance level. It is not quite as thick as the red dotted line up around $97,000, which adds a bit of ambiguity, but it still marks $82,500 as a key area.
So this is the wider read:
Yes, we have upside liquidity around $79,000.
Yes, there is a CME gap still sitting above.
But the Wyckoff structure, the momentum oscillator, and the indicator resistance levels are still suggesting that the broader market is losing momentum.
That is why I am not ready to abandon the bearish case.
Short term, Bitcoin can still push higher and test liquidity.
But the bigger structure still looks heavy, and the Wyckoff pattern is still playing out.
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The contrast to the upside magnet around $79,000 is the wider Wyckoff accumulation pattern.
This is the reason I am still in the longer-term short position, and it is why I still want to keep looking for short opportunities. To me, this structure is still very much in play.
At the bottom of the chart, you can see the small oscillator moving from red towards green. That is our momentum oscillator tool, which is also included inside the indicator I showed you a second ago.
The momentum oscillator is designed to show money flow and whether the market is gaining or losing momentum. Right now, it is showing that Bitcoin is still losing momentum. That may seem obvious from the chart, but it is useful to have the data confirming the read.
The red area you can see on the chart is also important. This indicator has effectively been short since around $108,000. It closed the short around $80,000 on the way back up, but before that, it caught the move all the way down towards around $52,000.
It is not perfect on exits. No indicator is.
But it is extremely strong at identifying entries, which is why we built it in the first place. The whole idea was to take the way I read markets, the way I look for entries, momentum shifts, resistance levels, and trend changes, and turn that into a system. We basically spent years trying to download my brain into an indicator.
Now, looking at this chart, the Wyckoff structure is still suggesting downside. The chart is showing a move towards around $72,000, but I also know that if we zoom out further, there is a much bigger level sitting around $60,000 as well.
The dotted lines are also important.
When you see a thick red dotted line, that is the indicator marking a strong resistance area where a short could make sense.
When you see a thick green dotted line, that is the opposite. It is marking an area where a long could make sense.
These are not always full trade signals. Think of them more like semi-trade levels. They show important areas where the market may react, even if the full confirmation setup has not triggered yet.
On this chart, the indicator has plotted a fairly thick red dotted line around $82,500, which tells me it sees that as an important resistance level. It is not quite as thick as the red dotted line up around $97,000, which adds a bit of ambiguity, but it still marks $82,500 as a key area.
So this is the wider read:
Yes, we have upside liquidity around $79,000.
Yes, there is a CME gap still sitting above.
But the Wyckoff structure, the momentum oscillator, and the indicator resistance levels are still suggesting that the broader market is losing momentum.
That is why I am not ready to abandon the bearish case.
Short term, Bitcoin can still push higher and test liquidity.
But the bigger structure still looks heavy, and the Wyckoff pattern is still playing out.
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