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I MIGHT DOUBLE MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT
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https://youtu.be/UMojIfEi7ec
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I MIGHT DOUBLE MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | $8.9M CRYPTO SHORT | BITCOIN MARKET UPDATE
Bitcoin is pushing back toward $77,500, and today’s video breaks down whether this move is setting up for another retracement lower or if Bitcoin could continue higher…
Bitcoin is pushing back toward $77,500, and today’s video breaks down whether this move is setting up for another retracement lower or if Bitcoin could continue higher…
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BITCOIN US OPEN UPDATE
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Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,350, give or take, and price is all over the place at the start of the U.S. open.
We are seeing aggressive moves in both directions, with Bitcoin moving up and down by close to $1,000 inside this range.
The problem is that because we have failed to break the downside properly, the upside now feels more likely in the short term.
I am actually happy with the small long positions I opened earlier, although I may not feel the same if price comes back down to my entry. The sizing on those trades is aggressive relative to that smaller account balance, so they need to be managed properly.
For the Bitcoin long, I will probably move the stop loss to entry and let it play out. For the other smaller positions, I will likely close them before I go to sleep.
Until Bitcoin breaks above $77,600, we are still technically inside the range. That means we are still range trading, not trending.
I have not checked the latest liquidity map yet, but I would expect the main liquidity peak to be below the current price. Even so, my gut still tells me we go up, not down, for the remainder of the day.
Across the broader market, there is also a clear bullish tone.
MicroStrategy stock is up at the open.
Gemini stock is up at the open.
Coinbase is only slightly down.
The S&P 500 is up close to 1%.
So right now, I do not see a major catalyst that forces Bitcoin lower before the end of today’s session. The obvious pressure, at least for now, feels more to the upside.
That said, the downside level still matters.
The key support I am watching is around $76,800 to $76,852. These levels move as the market develops, so you have to stay updated, but right now that is the area that matters.
If Bitcoin loses that level, it becomes very bearish.
A break below there would likely complete the move down towards around $76,200, and I do not expect that level to hold well if we approach it aggressively.
So for now, the plan is simple.
Above $76,850, the short-term upside remains alive.
Below $76,850, the market starts looking dangerous again.
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Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,350, give or take, and price is all over the place at the start of the U.S. open.
We are seeing aggressive moves in both directions, with Bitcoin moving up and down by close to $1,000 inside this range.
The problem is that because we have failed to break the downside properly, the upside now feels more likely in the short term.
I am actually happy with the small long positions I opened earlier, although I may not feel the same if price comes back down to my entry. The sizing on those trades is aggressive relative to that smaller account balance, so they need to be managed properly.
For the Bitcoin long, I will probably move the stop loss to entry and let it play out. For the other smaller positions, I will likely close them before I go to sleep.
Until Bitcoin breaks above $77,600, we are still technically inside the range. That means we are still range trading, not trending.
I have not checked the latest liquidity map yet, but I would expect the main liquidity peak to be below the current price. Even so, my gut still tells me we go up, not down, for the remainder of the day.
Across the broader market, there is also a clear bullish tone.
MicroStrategy stock is up at the open.
Gemini stock is up at the open.
Coinbase is only slightly down.
The S&P 500 is up close to 1%.
So right now, I do not see a major catalyst that forces Bitcoin lower before the end of today’s session. The obvious pressure, at least for now, feels more to the upside.
That said, the downside level still matters.
The key support I am watching is around $76,800 to $76,852. These levels move as the market develops, so you have to stay updated, but right now that is the area that matters.
If Bitcoin loses that level, it becomes very bearish.
A break below there would likely complete the move down towards around $76,200, and I do not expect that level to hold well if we approach it aggressively.
So for now, the plan is simple.
Above $76,850, the short-term upside remains alive.
Below $76,850, the market starts looking dangerous again.
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Morning Bitcoin update.
Price is currently pushing back towards the upside, and it does look like it could get pulled into that juicy liquidity above.
Everything I said yesterday still stands.
The highest I think we can realistically go inside this range is around $81,500, which is basically my entry on the bigger trade. That position is still in profit, so for now I’m sticking with it.
The smaller trade is also starting to look interesting. If this plays out properly today, that one could end up being a really nice one.
I also want to point something out on this trade.
This position is currently around $7,000 in profit. When I opened it, the account balance was only around $12,000, which means this one trade alone has produced roughly a 60% gain on the account.
That is the game.
It is not just about how much money you start with. It is about how well you can time the market, how you manage risk, and how effectively you use the capital available to you.
At the moment, we’re playing both sides of the range, and so far it’s working reasonably well.
I’ll be watching the market closely today and will aim to get more analysis out shortly once we get a clearer read on where price wants to move next.
Price is currently pushing back towards the upside, and it does look like it could get pulled into that juicy liquidity above.
Everything I said yesterday still stands.
The highest I think we can realistically go inside this range is around $81,500, which is basically my entry on the bigger trade. That position is still in profit, so for now I’m sticking with it.
The smaller trade is also starting to look interesting. If this plays out properly today, that one could end up being a really nice one.
I also want to point something out on this trade.
This position is currently around $7,000 in profit. When I opened it, the account balance was only around $12,000, which means this one trade alone has produced roughly a 60% gain on the account.
That is the game.
It is not just about how much money you start with. It is about how well you can time the market, how you manage risk, and how effectively you use the capital available to you.
At the moment, we’re playing both sides of the range, and so far it’s working reasonably well.
I’ll be watching the market closely today and will aim to get more analysis out shortly once we get a clearer read on where price wants to move next.
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Short-term trades are starting to pick up some steam here.
Bitcoin is now trading around $78,000, and I’m still expecting a move towards $79,000.
Naturally, on every small dip, the temptation is to think, “maybe it’s not happening, maybe I should just cash out.” But at some point, you have to trust the trade idea. You need conviction in the setup, otherwise there’s no point taking the trade in the first place.
For me, this is a difficult point.
This account started at around $7,000, and I’ve now grown the balance by roughly $10,000 on this move. That means the account is up around 140% from where it started.
So now I have to decide how much I actually believe in the next leg higher.
Part of me thinks the smartest move here is to close and take the win. But at the same time, I do believe Bitcoin reaches at least $78,500 today, bare minimum.
Because of that, I don’t see myself closing this trade before $78,500.
At this point, it comes down to patience, timing, and conviction. The trade is working, the thesis is still valid, and now it’s about letting it play out properly rather than getting shaken out too early.
By taking these trades over the past couple of days, I have now effectively funded the $10,000 starting balance for the $10,000 to $1 million trading challenge completely for free.
That is the point of the challenge.
It is not that every trade will be profitable. They won’t be. But with proper analysis, proper risk management, and the conviction to place trades when the setup is there, we can put ourselves in a position to achieve very good things.
This is why I’ve been doing this consistently for so long. I started trading crypto in 2013, started YouTube in 2016, and now, 13 years later, I’m still here trading, analysing the market, and showing the process in real time.
Join the trading challenge here:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Bitcoin is now trading around $78,000, and I’m still expecting a move towards $79,000.
Naturally, on every small dip, the temptation is to think, “maybe it’s not happening, maybe I should just cash out.” But at some point, you have to trust the trade idea. You need conviction in the setup, otherwise there’s no point taking the trade in the first place.
For me, this is a difficult point.
This account started at around $7,000, and I’ve now grown the balance by roughly $10,000 on this move. That means the account is up around 140% from where it started.
So now I have to decide how much I actually believe in the next leg higher.
Part of me thinks the smartest move here is to close and take the win. But at the same time, I do believe Bitcoin reaches at least $78,500 today, bare minimum.
Because of that, I don’t see myself closing this trade before $78,500.
At this point, it comes down to patience, timing, and conviction. The trade is working, the thesis is still valid, and now it’s about letting it play out properly rather than getting shaken out too early.
By taking these trades over the past couple of days, I have now effectively funded the $10,000 starting balance for the $10,000 to $1 million trading challenge completely for free.
That is the point of the challenge.
It is not that every trade will be profitable. They won’t be. But with proper analysis, proper risk management, and the conviction to place trades when the setup is there, we can put ourselves in a position to achieve very good things.
This is why I’ve been doing this consistently for so long. I started trading crypto in 2013, started YouTube in 2016, and now, 13 years later, I’m still here trading, analysing the market, and showing the process in real time.
Join the trading challenge here:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
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BITCOIN FUNDING, LIQUIDITY & OPEN INTEREST CHECK
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There is something important to point out when comparing Bitcoin funding rates, the liquidation heat map, and open interest.
Bitcoin funding is mostly positive, but I do not think that automatically means the market is bullish. What I think is happening here is more specific: Bitcoin may be creating a short-term trap.
On the liquidation heat map, there is a key liquidity zone around $76,700. Bitcoin has already started touching that downside liquidity, and the longer price trades around this area, the more attractive that zone becomes.
Below that, the next important level is around $75,700, which shows up more clearly on the weekly Bitcoin liquidation heat map.
At the same time, the weekly heat map does not show a huge amount of liquidity immediately below current price until we get closer to that yellow zone. Above current price, there is more liquidity available, but it is not as intense. So the heat map alone is not giving a perfect answer.
That is why we need to compare it with funding, open interest, and long/short positioning.
Right now, I am watching for fresh long exposure, and it is not really coming in with strength. This does not look like a market where traders are aggressively opening new longs.
Instead, the price rise appears to be coming mainly from short positions closing. When shorts close, they have to buy back into the market, which pushes price up. That can create a bounce without it being genuine new bullish demand.
Then, when we see sharp moves to the downside, those appear to be coming from long positions closing.
So the key point is this: exposure is not really increasing. It is decreasing.
That is also clear on the aggregated Bitcoin open interest chart on the one-hour timeframe. Open interest is dropping, which means positions are being closed. If price is rising while open interest is falling, that usually suggests short-covering, not fresh bullish positioning.
This supports the larger Bitcoin short.
The bigger trade is still based on the broader bearish structure, and that has not changed.
However, the smaller short-term long is a separate trade on a separate timeframe. That trade is based on the possibility of a short-covering bounce towards the CME gap around $79,000.
So there is no contradiction here.
The larger position is a longer-term short.
The smaller position is a short-term bounce trade inside that broader bearish structure.
If the short-term long works, we catch the bounce.
If it fails, the larger short benefits.
That is why I am still willing to give the smaller long some room, even though the profit has dropped back to around $3,000. We could close it now, but based on the way Bitcoin has been moving recently, I think it is still worth letting the U.S. session decide the direction.
My confidence in the smaller long has reduced slightly because Bitcoin sold off aggressively, but this market has repeatedly been reversing moves within 30 minutes. Until the structure properly breaks, I do not want to overreact.
The important thing is to separate the timeframes.
Short term, Bitcoin can still squeeze higher and close the CME gap.
Longer term, the open interest and liquidity structure still support the bearish case.
That is the trade-off right now. The range is messy, the data is mixed, and we are in no-man’s land, so the decision has to stay dynamic.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
There is something important to point out when comparing Bitcoin funding rates, the liquidation heat map, and open interest.
Bitcoin funding is mostly positive, but I do not think that automatically means the market is bullish. What I think is happening here is more specific: Bitcoin may be creating a short-term trap.
On the liquidation heat map, there is a key liquidity zone around $76,700. Bitcoin has already started touching that downside liquidity, and the longer price trades around this area, the more attractive that zone becomes.
Below that, the next important level is around $75,700, which shows up more clearly on the weekly Bitcoin liquidation heat map.
At the same time, the weekly heat map does not show a huge amount of liquidity immediately below current price until we get closer to that yellow zone. Above current price, there is more liquidity available, but it is not as intense. So the heat map alone is not giving a perfect answer.
That is why we need to compare it with funding, open interest, and long/short positioning.
Right now, I am watching for fresh long exposure, and it is not really coming in with strength. This does not look like a market where traders are aggressively opening new longs.
Instead, the price rise appears to be coming mainly from short positions closing. When shorts close, they have to buy back into the market, which pushes price up. That can create a bounce without it being genuine new bullish demand.
Then, when we see sharp moves to the downside, those appear to be coming from long positions closing.
So the key point is this: exposure is not really increasing. It is decreasing.
That is also clear on the aggregated Bitcoin open interest chart on the one-hour timeframe. Open interest is dropping, which means positions are being closed. If price is rising while open interest is falling, that usually suggests short-covering, not fresh bullish positioning.
This supports the larger Bitcoin short.
The bigger trade is still based on the broader bearish structure, and that has not changed.
However, the smaller short-term long is a separate trade on a separate timeframe. That trade is based on the possibility of a short-covering bounce towards the CME gap around $79,000.
So there is no contradiction here.
The larger position is a longer-term short.
The smaller position is a short-term bounce trade inside that broader bearish structure.
If the short-term long works, we catch the bounce.
If it fails, the larger short benefits.
That is why I am still willing to give the smaller long some room, even though the profit has dropped back to around $3,000. We could close it now, but based on the way Bitcoin has been moving recently, I think it is still worth letting the U.S. session decide the direction.
My confidence in the smaller long has reduced slightly because Bitcoin sold off aggressively, but this market has repeatedly been reversing moves within 30 minutes. Until the structure properly breaks, I do not want to overreact.
The important thing is to separate the timeframes.
Short term, Bitcoin can still squeeze higher and close the CME gap.
Longer term, the open interest and liquidity structure still support the bearish case.
That is the trade-off right now. The range is messy, the data is mixed, and we are in no-man’s land, so the decision has to stay dynamic.
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i still feel this is a trap, its just be dynamic, tight stops below 77k it will wick down aggressively
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I have closed the small BTC long for around a $2,000 loss.
I may reopen it, but for now I am targeting around $76,100 before considering another entry.
I do not want to spend the whole evening forcing trades. It is already half past nine, and the main position is still sitting around $800,000 in profit.
At some point, you have to know when to stop staring at the screen.
For now, I want to focus on eating, sleeping, and letting the bigger trade continue doing its job.
I may reopen it, but for now I am targeting around $76,100 before considering another entry.
I do not want to spend the whole evening forcing trades. It is already half past nine, and the main position is still sitting around $800,000 in profit.
At some point, you have to know when to stop staring at the screen.
For now, I want to focus on eating, sleeping, and letting the bigger trade continue doing its job.
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