FUNDING RATES, SENTIMENT & VOLUME CHECK
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Now let’s look at the funding rates.
Today, we are seeing a lot less green and a lot more funding moving back towards neutral, with some markets pushing above neutral again.
That suggests the aggressive short-side pressure is cooling off, and the usual bullish bias is starting to return.
We can also use the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index as a quick sentiment check. Over the past 24 hours, sentiment has ticked up slightly, but the real question is: who is that sentiment actually coming from?
Because when we look at the past four hours and the past one hour, there are still more shorts than longs by around 2%.
That suggests retail is now shorting.
That is something to be careful with, because retail being heavily short can sometimes become a reason for the market to squeeze back up.
But funding rates are not deeply negative, which means there is still long-side demand coming in to offset some of that short pressure.
So the signal is mixed.
Short-term, there is a risk of a squeeze.
But the broader volume data still does not look healthy.
Looking at the Bitcoin volume overview, Bitcoin spot volume is down 34.19% over the past 24 hours to around $4.28 billion.
Bitcoin futures volume is also down 34.25%.
This is not weekend data. This is a normal working day, so volume dropping that heavily is not a great sign.
On top of that, spot taker sells are still showing around 2% more sell pressure than buy pressure.
Futures taker data is also still showing around 1% more sell pressure than buy pressure.
And spot volume is still making up less than 7% of total Bitcoin volume.
That is the part I do not like.
A market cannot sustainably hold these price levels if spot demand stays this weak. Futures can push price around in the short term, but if real spot buyers are not stepping in with size, the structure remains fragile.
So while funding and short-term sentiment are starting to show some squeeze risk, the volume data still says the market is weak.
For now, I still do not see enough evidence that this is a healthy recovery.
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Now let’s look at the funding rates.
Today, we are seeing a lot less green and a lot more funding moving back towards neutral, with some markets pushing above neutral again.
That suggests the aggressive short-side pressure is cooling off, and the usual bullish bias is starting to return.
We can also use the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index as a quick sentiment check. Over the past 24 hours, sentiment has ticked up slightly, but the real question is: who is that sentiment actually coming from?
Because when we look at the past four hours and the past one hour, there are still more shorts than longs by around 2%.
That suggests retail is now shorting.
That is something to be careful with, because retail being heavily short can sometimes become a reason for the market to squeeze back up.
But funding rates are not deeply negative, which means there is still long-side demand coming in to offset some of that short pressure.
So the signal is mixed.
Short-term, there is a risk of a squeeze.
But the broader volume data still does not look healthy.
Looking at the Bitcoin volume overview, Bitcoin spot volume is down 34.19% over the past 24 hours to around $4.28 billion.
Bitcoin futures volume is also down 34.25%.
This is not weekend data. This is a normal working day, so volume dropping that heavily is not a great sign.
On top of that, spot taker sells are still showing around 2% more sell pressure than buy pressure.
Futures taker data is also still showing around 1% more sell pressure than buy pressure.
And spot volume is still making up less than 7% of total Bitcoin volume.
That is the part I do not like.
A market cannot sustainably hold these price levels if spot demand stays this weak. Futures can push price around in the short term, but if real spot buyers are not stepping in with size, the structure remains fragile.
So while funding and short-term sentiment are starting to show some squeeze risk, the volume data still says the market is weak.
For now, I still do not see enough evidence that this is a healthy recovery.
👍6😁1
BITCOIN & ETHEREUM LIQUIDATION HEAT MAP OVERVIEW
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Now let’s look at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map.
Today, Bitcoin has a massive liquidation level sitting just below current price. If we lose $76,000, there are potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations waiting underneath.
If that level breaks properly, I think the move could get violent very quickly.
We could easily shoot down through $75,000, pause somewhere around $74,500 to $74,000, and then potentially continue towards the $70,000 region.
If Bitcoin loses support around where we are now, I genuinely think the drop could be brutal. It would line up with the more aggressive downside chart I showed at the start of today’s analysis.
The Bitcoin liquidation heat map does not look good.
I also like comparing different liquidation heat maps to understand both sides of the market, and Ethereum looks slightly different on the same 48-hour view.
On the Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is more liquidity above current price than below. That suggests Ethereum may actually be in a slightly more bullish short-term position than Bitcoin.
But market direction is king.
If Bitcoin starts breaking down, Ethereum is unlikely to ignore that.
When we zoom out to the higher timeframe heat maps, the picture gets more bearish again.
On the one-month Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is a huge liquidity zone around $1,856. If ETH starts stalling here and the market rolls over, that is the kind of level I would expect Ethereum to move towards.
Bitcoin shows a similar picture on the higher timeframe heat map.
There are major downside liquidity levels below price, and not nearly as much above. The upside liquidity is thinner because Bitcoin smashed through that range quickly, which means the market has not had enough time to build a proper liquidity magnet above.
So Bitcoin is lacking upside magnetism right now.
The stronger liquidity pull is still below.
At this point, most of the data is still pointing downwards. That is why I am not in a rush to exit this short position too early.
If this move opens up properly, it could become a very serious trade.
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Now let’s look at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map.
Today, Bitcoin has a massive liquidation level sitting just below current price. If we lose $76,000, there are potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations waiting underneath.
If that level breaks properly, I think the move could get violent very quickly.
We could easily shoot down through $75,000, pause somewhere around $74,500 to $74,000, and then potentially continue towards the $70,000 region.
If Bitcoin loses support around where we are now, I genuinely think the drop could be brutal. It would line up with the more aggressive downside chart I showed at the start of today’s analysis.
The Bitcoin liquidation heat map does not look good.
I also like comparing different liquidation heat maps to understand both sides of the market, and Ethereum looks slightly different on the same 48-hour view.
On the Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is more liquidity above current price than below. That suggests Ethereum may actually be in a slightly more bullish short-term position than Bitcoin.
But market direction is king.
If Bitcoin starts breaking down, Ethereum is unlikely to ignore that.
When we zoom out to the higher timeframe heat maps, the picture gets more bearish again.
On the one-month Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is a huge liquidity zone around $1,856. If ETH starts stalling here and the market rolls over, that is the kind of level I would expect Ethereum to move towards.
Bitcoin shows a similar picture on the higher timeframe heat map.
There are major downside liquidity levels below price, and not nearly as much above. The upside liquidity is thinner because Bitcoin smashed through that range quickly, which means the market has not had enough time to build a proper liquidity magnet above.
So Bitcoin is lacking upside magnetism right now.
The stronger liquidity pull is still below.
At this point, most of the data is still pointing downwards. That is why I am not in a rush to exit this short position too early.
If this move opens up properly, it could become a very serious trade.
👍6❤3
BITCOIN & ETHEREUM OPEN INTEREST CHECK
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Now let’s look at Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest. I’ve attached both charts to this Telegram post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
Bitcoin open interest has dropped by around $500 million this morning. Since that drop, the price of Bitcoin has only moved down by about $300. Proportionally, that does not really make sense. We have had roughly a 2% drop in liquidity, but only about a 0.5% drop in price, which suggests that price has not fully reacted yet to the amount of liquidity that has left the market.
In simple terms, Bitcoin still looks expensive relative to the liquidity underneath it. If the liquidity drops harder than the price, then in theory, the next move should still be downwards as price catches up with the change in market structure.
This is exactly why I do this analysis in real time. I am discovering the data as I go through it, the same way you are, and that is the point of the group. We are not here to force a bullish or bearish opinion. We are here to challenge the bias every day and make sure the trade still makes sense.
That is how you hold a big position properly. You do not just sit there blindly hoping. You keep testing the idea against the data. If the data changes, the trade changes. But right now, this Bitcoin open interest data still supports the downside case.
The trade is already massively profitable, but the question is whether this becomes much bigger. That is what we are trying to work out properly.
Ethereum is showing a similar story, but not quite as extreme. ETH has not had the same aggressive drop in open interest as Bitcoin, but it has still seen a meaningful move. Ethereum open interest is down around 1%, and price is also down around 1%, so that relationship is more balanced than Bitcoin.
So Bitcoin looks like it still has more downside pressure to release, while Ethereum simply looks heavy and bearish.
Now we need to move over to the charts and see whether the technical structure agrees with the data.
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Now let’s look at Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest. I’ve attached both charts to this Telegram post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
Bitcoin open interest has dropped by around $500 million this morning. Since that drop, the price of Bitcoin has only moved down by about $300. Proportionally, that does not really make sense. We have had roughly a 2% drop in liquidity, but only about a 0.5% drop in price, which suggests that price has not fully reacted yet to the amount of liquidity that has left the market.
In simple terms, Bitcoin still looks expensive relative to the liquidity underneath it. If the liquidity drops harder than the price, then in theory, the next move should still be downwards as price catches up with the change in market structure.
This is exactly why I do this analysis in real time. I am discovering the data as I go through it, the same way you are, and that is the point of the group. We are not here to force a bullish or bearish opinion. We are here to challenge the bias every day and make sure the trade still makes sense.
That is how you hold a big position properly. You do not just sit there blindly hoping. You keep testing the idea against the data. If the data changes, the trade changes. But right now, this Bitcoin open interest data still supports the downside case.
The trade is already massively profitable, but the question is whether this becomes much bigger. That is what we are trying to work out properly.
Ethereum is showing a similar story, but not quite as extreme. ETH has not had the same aggressive drop in open interest as Bitcoin, but it has still seen a meaningful move. Ethereum open interest is down around 1%, and price is also down around 1%, so that relationship is more balanced than Bitcoin.
So Bitcoin looks like it still has more downside pressure to release, while Ethereum simply looks heavy and bearish.
Now we need to move over to the charts and see whether the technical structure agrees with the data.
👏7❤1
BITCOIN UPSIDE RESISTANCE LEVELS
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Now it is time to get onto the price levels, and I want to start by looking at the upside resistance on Bitcoin.
The difficult part here is knowing exactly which level is the correct one to plot. So what I like to do is plot every reasonable level that I can see, and then look for the band that starts forming between them.
When multiple levels start lining up in the same area, that gives us a more useful resistance zone rather than relying on one random line.
The key area I have highlighted with the red circle is where these resistance lines start intersecting. That intersection is around $76,800, which makes it the first important upside level.
If Bitcoin trades above $76,800 and then manages to break above $77,000, that becomes much more important. The $77,000 level is the final major resistance in this immediate structure, and it also lines up almost perfectly with the top of the VRVP range.
If Bitcoin breaks that cleanly, I think price can move very quickly from $77,000 to around $78,000.
From there, the next obvious step would be towards $79,000, because that is where the CME gap is sitting. If Bitcoin breaks this short-term downtrend soon, I think it is very likely that the CME gap gets closed.
This also lines up with what we have seen in the open interest data. We can prove that a lot of short positions have opened recently, and those shorts could start coming under pressure if Bitcoin begins breaking higher.
That is why we do not make reactionary decisions.
When we are considering making a decision, we then analyse that decision properly and check whether the data actually supports it.
Right now, the read is still fairly simple: short term, there is upside risk. Mid-term and longer-term, the broader structure still points lower.
All roads still point down overall, but that can change if Bitcoin starts breaking back above the key levels.
So we need to respect the danger zone above $76,800. We are not far away from it, and if Bitcoin gets through there, the move towards $79,000 becomes very realistic.
The most annoying scenario would be Bitcoin pushing up to close the CME gap around $79,000, making the short uncomfortable, then some bad news hits and the market rolls over properly from there.
That kind of move would not surprise me at all.
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Now it is time to get onto the price levels, and I want to start by looking at the upside resistance on Bitcoin.
The difficult part here is knowing exactly which level is the correct one to plot. So what I like to do is plot every reasonable level that I can see, and then look for the band that starts forming between them.
When multiple levels start lining up in the same area, that gives us a more useful resistance zone rather than relying on one random line.
The key area I have highlighted with the red circle is where these resistance lines start intersecting. That intersection is around $76,800, which makes it the first important upside level.
If Bitcoin trades above $76,800 and then manages to break above $77,000, that becomes much more important. The $77,000 level is the final major resistance in this immediate structure, and it also lines up almost perfectly with the top of the VRVP range.
If Bitcoin breaks that cleanly, I think price can move very quickly from $77,000 to around $78,000.
From there, the next obvious step would be towards $79,000, because that is where the CME gap is sitting. If Bitcoin breaks this short-term downtrend soon, I think it is very likely that the CME gap gets closed.
This also lines up with what we have seen in the open interest data. We can prove that a lot of short positions have opened recently, and those shorts could start coming under pressure if Bitcoin begins breaking higher.
That is why we do not make reactionary decisions.
When we are considering making a decision, we then analyse that decision properly and check whether the data actually supports it.
Right now, the read is still fairly simple: short term, there is upside risk. Mid-term and longer-term, the broader structure still points lower.
All roads still point down overall, but that can change if Bitcoin starts breaking back above the key levels.
So we need to respect the danger zone above $76,800. We are not far away from it, and if Bitcoin gets through there, the move towards $79,000 becomes very realistic.
The most annoying scenario would be Bitcoin pushing up to close the CME gap around $79,000, making the short uncomfortable, then some bad news hits and the market rolls over properly from there.
That kind of move would not surprise me at all.
👍7❤1
all in all, this morning the market is looking solidly 50/50 again, if it breaks the resistance it will pump very aggressively if it does not break it very soon then it will drop down to 75, probably bounce aggressively then continue the dump below 70.
I think there is just no catalyst for good and the clarity act and others dont mean anything if nobody actually wants the underlying asset because they can't save money because the government is either taxing them to poverty or fucking up inflation so hard you get poverty
look around you, in the workplace, at the shops, do these people look like bitcoin will save them? or do they look hopeless? and more than likely think that crypto is a scam and only dodgy people take crypto and crypto people are somehow lesser species, i get it all the time, retail is so depressed.
The sad part is if they just saved 10% of their income in bitcoin for 2-3 years they would be financially free, they are just too stupid and ignorant to learn. The crazy part from my perspective is i know this works becuase i watch it happen every 4 years to my community.
Even recently i'm seeing crypto used as a slur, its crazy, the UK govt banning political donations in crypto is just another step for the country away from being a prosperous tax haven.
USA is fucked becuase tis run by an orange imbecile who looks like he will be using whatever spare change they have to cause more disruption
the middle east tensions have not been higher for 40 years
Europes economy is broken, Germany is swimming in a immigration and debt crisis along with France, the Spaniards are sleeping away their economy still taking siesta for 4 hours after lunch and Italy to be fair is a really nice country and i can't wait to go back in summer, but still i think their economy is quite bad and the only healthy area is manufacturing and thats because the government gives subsidies for manufacturing in Italy
these are the things you see normally just before it gets worse, not before it gets better, remember summer historically it does get worse. Summer people lose interest, that is our opportunity. the direction is unimportant, if its a consistent downwards direction, its an easy market to make money
—————————————————————————————
JOIN THE NEXT $10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
You do not need $10,000 to join.
The goal is to take $10k to $1m, you can stop any time, you can make any trades you want, when i place trades i will be posting them, of the past 20 attempts 2 failed and 4-5 broke even, 14+ 15-40k results, 7+ 100k finish, 3 completions over $1m, the last one we fully completed took 3 months. I dream of this shit, its a challenge but one good challenge is such a boost to life.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier for everyone to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with making pennies: $1,000
Honeslty if you arn't using at least $500 if i were following i would feel like i was wasting my time, you will learn a lot, lessons mean more when you dont cheap out and use baby shmeckles. make decisions that have consequences and you will become better at making decisions.
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
Join the group chat here if you have questions or want to talk about trading bitcoin
https://t.me/TMGNETWORK
I think there is just no catalyst for good and the clarity act and others dont mean anything if nobody actually wants the underlying asset because they can't save money because the government is either taxing them to poverty or fucking up inflation so hard you get poverty
look around you, in the workplace, at the shops, do these people look like bitcoin will save them? or do they look hopeless? and more than likely think that crypto is a scam and only dodgy people take crypto and crypto people are somehow lesser species, i get it all the time, retail is so depressed.
The sad part is if they just saved 10% of their income in bitcoin for 2-3 years they would be financially free, they are just too stupid and ignorant to learn. The crazy part from my perspective is i know this works becuase i watch it happen every 4 years to my community.
Even recently i'm seeing crypto used as a slur, its crazy, the UK govt banning political donations in crypto is just another step for the country away from being a prosperous tax haven.
USA is fucked becuase tis run by an orange imbecile who looks like he will be using whatever spare change they have to cause more disruption
the middle east tensions have not been higher for 40 years
Europes economy is broken, Germany is swimming in a immigration and debt crisis along with France, the Spaniards are sleeping away their economy still taking siesta for 4 hours after lunch and Italy to be fair is a really nice country and i can't wait to go back in summer, but still i think their economy is quite bad and the only healthy area is manufacturing and thats because the government gives subsidies for manufacturing in Italy
these are the things you see normally just before it gets worse, not before it gets better, remember summer historically it does get worse. Summer people lose interest, that is our opportunity. the direction is unimportant, if its a consistent downwards direction, its an easy market to make money
—————————————————————————————
JOIN THE NEXT $10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
You do not need $10,000 to join.
The goal is to take $10k to $1m, you can stop any time, you can make any trades you want, when i place trades i will be posting them, of the past 20 attempts 2 failed and 4-5 broke even, 14+ 15-40k results, 7+ 100k finish, 3 completions over $1m, the last one we fully completed took 3 months. I dream of this shit, its a challenge but one good challenge is such a boost to life.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier for everyone to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with making pennies: $1,000
Honeslty if you arn't using at least $500 if i were following i would feel like i was wasting my time, you will learn a lot, lessons mean more when you dont cheap out and use baby shmeckles. make decisions that have consequences and you will become better at making decisions.
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
Join the group chat here if you have questions or want to talk about trading bitcoin
https://t.me/TMGNETWORK
👍4❤2🔥2
BITCOIN BREAKOUT UPDATE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Bitcoin has just broken through the resistance level we plotted at $76,800.
As expected, the second that level broke, price rallied quickly into the mid-$77,000 range and pushed back into the liquidity zone we were watching.
The important question now is whether this breakout holds.
To me, this still has the potential to reset quickly and turn into a failed breakout. The reason is simple: Bitcoin is now pushing back into a previous liquidity range, and if price falls back inside that range, it will likely spend more time trading inside it rather than continuing straight up.
So the move is not confirmed yet.
When we zoom out, the final key level now is $77,200.
If Bitcoin breaks above $77,200 cleanly, I think that immediately opens the door for a move back towards $78,000, and from there, the path towards the $79,000 CME gap becomes very realistic.
This is exactly what I have been warning about.
The downside is still the dominant trend for now, but Bitcoin is also currently forming a higher low. If that higher-low structure continues, then the longer-term bullish structure that originally took us up towards the $85,000 range remains intact.
At that point, we would have to seriously consider flipping bullish on the market structure.
What that means for the current trade is more complicated.
I need to think carefully about whether it still makes sense to stay short if Bitcoin keeps holding higher lows and starts reclaiming these resistance levels.
Because in trading, it is not just where price goes that matters.
It is how price gets there.
That is the part we need to focus on now.
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Bitcoin has just broken through the resistance level we plotted at $76,800.
As expected, the second that level broke, price rallied quickly into the mid-$77,000 range and pushed back into the liquidity zone we were watching.
The important question now is whether this breakout holds.
To me, this still has the potential to reset quickly and turn into a failed breakout. The reason is simple: Bitcoin is now pushing back into a previous liquidity range, and if price falls back inside that range, it will likely spend more time trading inside it rather than continuing straight up.
So the move is not confirmed yet.
When we zoom out, the final key level now is $77,200.
If Bitcoin breaks above $77,200 cleanly, I think that immediately opens the door for a move back towards $78,000, and from there, the path towards the $79,000 CME gap becomes very realistic.
This is exactly what I have been warning about.
The downside is still the dominant trend for now, but Bitcoin is also currently forming a higher low. If that higher-low structure continues, then the longer-term bullish structure that originally took us up towards the $85,000 range remains intact.
At that point, we would have to seriously consider flipping bullish on the market structure.
What that means for the current trade is more complicated.
I need to think carefully about whether it still makes sense to stay short if Bitcoin keeps holding higher lows and starts reclaiming these resistance levels.
Because in trading, it is not just where price goes that matters.
It is how price gets there.
That is the part we need to focus on now.
🔥4❤1
SMALLER HEDGE POSITIONS
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Here are the much smaller positions I have opened on a separate account.
There was no real reason not to take them. The market structure was clearly starting to build for a short-term bounce, and as I posted yesterday, I placed these trades to test that idea. Now they are finally starting to pay.
This is the point I keep making about trading dynamically.
Even though I am still in a huge short position, that does not mean I have to ignore smaller counter-trend moves. If the market looks like it wants to bounce, I can play that bounce on a separate account while still keeping the main short position open.
The reason is simple: we might end up running this bounce all the way back towards neutral on the main short before the bigger move continues.
That does not mean I no longer believe in the short. I still want the larger short as a longer-term position because I believe the broader market structure remains bearish.
But inside that bearish structure, there will still be bounces. There will still be squeezes. There will still be short-term opportunities.
The main trade is the big short.
These smaller trades are just me taking advantage of the shorter-term structure while we wait to see whether the market rejects again or continues pushing higher.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Here are the much smaller positions I have opened on a separate account.
There was no real reason not to take them. The market structure was clearly starting to build for a short-term bounce, and as I posted yesterday, I placed these trades to test that idea. Now they are finally starting to pay.
This is the point I keep making about trading dynamically.
Even though I am still in a huge short position, that does not mean I have to ignore smaller counter-trend moves. If the market looks like it wants to bounce, I can play that bounce on a separate account while still keeping the main short position open.
The reason is simple: we might end up running this bounce all the way back towards neutral on the main short before the bigger move continues.
That does not mean I no longer believe in the short. I still want the larger short as a longer-term position because I believe the broader market structure remains bearish.
But inside that bearish structure, there will still be bounces. There will still be squeezes. There will still be short-term opportunities.
The main trade is the big short.
These smaller trades are just me taking advantage of the shorter-term structure while we wait to see whether the market rejects again or continues pushing higher.
👍7🔥3❤2😈2
BITCOIN $77,200 DECISION POINT
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Bitcoin is currently playing around with the $77,200 level.
If Bitcoin continues pushing higher here and breaks the top of the range, it is setting itself up for a quick reset back towards at least $78,200.
That would sting on the big short if price does not come back down, but the structure is definitely building for it.
Having said that, rejections happen.
If Bitcoin fails to break above $77,300 in the next 10 to 15 minutes, I think price can easily come back down towards $76,700.
So right now, I see two main paths.
The first path is rejection from here, back down towards $76,700, then a weak bounce, then continuation lower.
The second path is a clean break above $77,300, continuation through the top of the range, and then a fast move towards $78,200.
If Bitcoin reaches $78,200, then the CME gap around $79,000 becomes very likely to close. It would be strange for price to get that close and not at least attempt it.
The CME gap is still open, everyone is extremely bearish, and that is exactly the kind of setup that can create a massive squeeze.
So this is a very important level.
Either Bitcoin rejects here and the downside trade starts working again, or it breaks higher and forces the market to reset towards the CME gap.
$10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
You do not need $10,000 to join.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with pennies: $1,000
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
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Bitcoin is currently playing around with the $77,200 level.
If Bitcoin continues pushing higher here and breaks the top of the range, it is setting itself up for a quick reset back towards at least $78,200.
That would sting on the big short if price does not come back down, but the structure is definitely building for it.
Having said that, rejections happen.
If Bitcoin fails to break above $77,300 in the next 10 to 15 minutes, I think price can easily come back down towards $76,700.
So right now, I see two main paths.
The first path is rejection from here, back down towards $76,700, then a weak bounce, then continuation lower.
The second path is a clean break above $77,300, continuation through the top of the range, and then a fast move towards $78,200.
If Bitcoin reaches $78,200, then the CME gap around $79,000 becomes very likely to close. It would be strange for price to get that close and not at least attempt it.
The CME gap is still open, everyone is extremely bearish, and that is exactly the kind of setup that can create a massive squeeze.
So this is a very important level.
Either Bitcoin rejects here and the downside trade starts working again, or it breaks higher and forces the market to reset towards the CME gap.
$10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
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You do not need $10,000 to join.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with pennies: $1,000
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
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BITCOIN TRADE UPDATE
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Bitcoin is currently pushing higher, and we are edging closer to the U.S. open.
For the smaller short-term positions, my exit area is going to be somewhere between $78,200 and $78,300.
I do not intend to hold those smaller trades all the way up to $79,000, even though I do think Bitcoin could get there and close the CME gap.
I’ve drawn the scenario on the chart. In simple terms, I think Bitcoin can push up towards $78,200, trap people into the move, and then roll back down towards around $76,300.
That is genuinely what I think could happen today.
If Bitcoin gets to around $78,200, I will probably look to short again because I think there is a decent chance price gets trapped there. But it depends on how price approaches that level.
If the move is slow and weak, that is one thing.
If the move is aggressive and clearly being driven by momentum, then we have to be more careful and potentially let it run further.
That is why we need to pay close attention to the 15-minute and 30-minute timeframes, while only using the one-hour timeframe for the bigger money decisions.
To be clear, the exit I’m talking about here is for the smaller trades.
For the big short position, I currently have no intention of exiting today. That trade is still the longer-term play, and for now, we are holding it while the broader bearish case continues to develop.
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Bitcoin is currently pushing higher, and we are edging closer to the U.S. open.
For the smaller short-term positions, my exit area is going to be somewhere between $78,200 and $78,300.
I do not intend to hold those smaller trades all the way up to $79,000, even though I do think Bitcoin could get there and close the CME gap.
I’ve drawn the scenario on the chart. In simple terms, I think Bitcoin can push up towards $78,200, trap people into the move, and then roll back down towards around $76,300.
That is genuinely what I think could happen today.
If Bitcoin gets to around $78,200, I will probably look to short again because I think there is a decent chance price gets trapped there. But it depends on how price approaches that level.
If the move is slow and weak, that is one thing.
If the move is aggressive and clearly being driven by momentum, then we have to be more careful and potentially let it run further.
That is why we need to pay close attention to the 15-minute and 30-minute timeframes, while only using the one-hour timeframe for the bigger money decisions.
To be clear, the exit I’m talking about here is for the smaller trades.
For the big short position, I currently have no intention of exiting today. That trade is still the longer-term play, and for now, we are holding it while the broader bearish case continues to develop.
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In other very exciting news, the TMG position size calculator is now live, you can type in my order size and my account balance along with your account balance and it will spit out what trade sizing you should use for the $10k to $1m Trading Challenge.
https://thatmartiniguy.co.uk/position-size
https://thatmartiniguy.co.uk/position-size
thatmartiniguy.co.uk
That Martini Guy – Crypto Education & Market Analysis
Trusted crypto content creator and founder of Crypto Saving Expert. Market insights, educational videos, and crypto safety guidance.
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NEW VIDEO LIVE NOW!!
I MIGHT DOUBLE MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/UMojIfEi7ec
I MIGHT DOUBLE MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/UMojIfEi7ec
YouTube
I MIGHT DOUBLE MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | $8.9M CRYPTO SHORT | BITCOIN MARKET UPDATE
Bitcoin is pushing back toward $77,500, and today’s video breaks down whether this move is setting up for another retracement lower or if Bitcoin could continue higher…
Bitcoin is pushing back toward $77,500, and today’s video breaks down whether this move is setting up for another retracement lower or if Bitcoin could continue higher…
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BITCOIN US OPEN UPDATE
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Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,350, give or take, and price is all over the place at the start of the U.S. open.
We are seeing aggressive moves in both directions, with Bitcoin moving up and down by close to $1,000 inside this range.
The problem is that because we have failed to break the downside properly, the upside now feels more likely in the short term.
I am actually happy with the small long positions I opened earlier, although I may not feel the same if price comes back down to my entry. The sizing on those trades is aggressive relative to that smaller account balance, so they need to be managed properly.
For the Bitcoin long, I will probably move the stop loss to entry and let it play out. For the other smaller positions, I will likely close them before I go to sleep.
Until Bitcoin breaks above $77,600, we are still technically inside the range. That means we are still range trading, not trending.
I have not checked the latest liquidity map yet, but I would expect the main liquidity peak to be below the current price. Even so, my gut still tells me we go up, not down, for the remainder of the day.
Across the broader market, there is also a clear bullish tone.
MicroStrategy stock is up at the open.
Gemini stock is up at the open.
Coinbase is only slightly down.
The S&P 500 is up close to 1%.
So right now, I do not see a major catalyst that forces Bitcoin lower before the end of today’s session. The obvious pressure, at least for now, feels more to the upside.
That said, the downside level still matters.
The key support I am watching is around $76,800 to $76,852. These levels move as the market develops, so you have to stay updated, but right now that is the area that matters.
If Bitcoin loses that level, it becomes very bearish.
A break below there would likely complete the move down towards around $76,200, and I do not expect that level to hold well if we approach it aggressively.
So for now, the plan is simple.
Above $76,850, the short-term upside remains alive.
Below $76,850, the market starts looking dangerous again.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,350, give or take, and price is all over the place at the start of the U.S. open.
We are seeing aggressive moves in both directions, with Bitcoin moving up and down by close to $1,000 inside this range.
The problem is that because we have failed to break the downside properly, the upside now feels more likely in the short term.
I am actually happy with the small long positions I opened earlier, although I may not feel the same if price comes back down to my entry. The sizing on those trades is aggressive relative to that smaller account balance, so they need to be managed properly.
For the Bitcoin long, I will probably move the stop loss to entry and let it play out. For the other smaller positions, I will likely close them before I go to sleep.
Until Bitcoin breaks above $77,600, we are still technically inside the range. That means we are still range trading, not trending.
I have not checked the latest liquidity map yet, but I would expect the main liquidity peak to be below the current price. Even so, my gut still tells me we go up, not down, for the remainder of the day.
Across the broader market, there is also a clear bullish tone.
MicroStrategy stock is up at the open.
Gemini stock is up at the open.
Coinbase is only slightly down.
The S&P 500 is up close to 1%.
So right now, I do not see a major catalyst that forces Bitcoin lower before the end of today’s session. The obvious pressure, at least for now, feels more to the upside.
That said, the downside level still matters.
The key support I am watching is around $76,800 to $76,852. These levels move as the market develops, so you have to stay updated, but right now that is the area that matters.
If Bitcoin loses that level, it becomes very bearish.
A break below there would likely complete the move down towards around $76,200, and I do not expect that level to hold well if we approach it aggressively.
So for now, the plan is simple.
Above $76,850, the short-term upside remains alive.
Below $76,850, the market starts looking dangerous again.
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