BITCOIN RANGE LOW RETEST
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The market is moving around like crazy right now.
Bitcoin is retesting the low of the range around $76,000.
If Bitcoin loses $76,000 properly, this can get very messy very quickly.
I am currently sitting around $600,000 in open profit, and we have already taken roughly $270,000+ profit earlier.
That puts net equity around $2.87 million, give or take.
So the question is simple:
Would you close?
All in, the trade is up around $860,000 between realised and open profit.
Would you lock it in here, or would you keep holding for the bigger move?
👍 Close
👎 Hold
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The market is moving around like crazy right now.
Bitcoin is retesting the low of the range around $76,000.
If Bitcoin loses $76,000 properly, this can get very messy very quickly.
I am currently sitting around $600,000 in open profit, and we have already taken roughly $270,000+ profit earlier.
That puts net equity around $2.87 million, give or take.
So the question is simple:
Would you close?
All in, the trade is up around $860,000 between realised and open profit.
Would you lock it in here, or would you keep holding for the bigger move?
👍 Close
👎 Hold
👍58👎38❤1
GOOD MORNING, BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS
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Good morning everybody.
It is time to get into this morning’s Bitcoin price analysis.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,750, give or take.
The temptation right now is to chart this in the most obvious way possible.
We lost RSI support, so the easy assumption is that Bitcoin continues lower and does a full reset, similar to what happened last time.
A lot of people in the market are expecting history to repeat. The comparison being made is the previous move from around $97,500 down to $59,500.
If Bitcoin repeated that same style of move from the current range high around $82,500, then theoretically, price could fall as low as the $45,000 region.
But does that actually sound realistic?
To me, that sounds like a genuinely catastrophic scenario. Something seriously bad would need to happen for Bitcoin to move that low from here.
What I think is far more realistic is a revisit of the liquidity range around $68,000, which I’ve highlighted on the chart.
That is a major liquidity zone and a very obvious downside magnet.
But here is the problem with being blindly bearish today:
There are also multiple liquidity magnets above price.
In fact, right now, I can see several important liquidity zones above Bitcoin, while there is really one major zone below.
That means we have to question the bearish theory again today.
We cannot just walk into this analysis assuming we are correct because the last few calls have worked.
The CME gap is still open around $79,000, and I still think there is a strong chance Bitcoin comes back up to close it this week. I do not see how we completely ignore that level for too long.
So today, I’m going through the full data properly.
We will look at the in-depth metrics, indicators, technical analysis, liquidity, volume, open interest, and market structure to work out whether Bitcoin is more likely to move down or up next.
We are now on a long streak of being correct, and I want to keep that going.
So let’s use our brains, ignore the noise, and follow the money.
Because in this market, the best edge you can have is learning how to read where the money is actually going.
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Good morning everybody.
It is time to get into this morning’s Bitcoin price analysis.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,750, give or take.
The temptation right now is to chart this in the most obvious way possible.
We lost RSI support, so the easy assumption is that Bitcoin continues lower and does a full reset, similar to what happened last time.
A lot of people in the market are expecting history to repeat. The comparison being made is the previous move from around $97,500 down to $59,500.
If Bitcoin repeated that same style of move from the current range high around $82,500, then theoretically, price could fall as low as the $45,000 region.
But does that actually sound realistic?
To me, that sounds like a genuinely catastrophic scenario. Something seriously bad would need to happen for Bitcoin to move that low from here.
What I think is far more realistic is a revisit of the liquidity range around $68,000, which I’ve highlighted on the chart.
That is a major liquidity zone and a very obvious downside magnet.
But here is the problem with being blindly bearish today:
There are also multiple liquidity magnets above price.
In fact, right now, I can see several important liquidity zones above Bitcoin, while there is really one major zone below.
That means we have to question the bearish theory again today.
We cannot just walk into this analysis assuming we are correct because the last few calls have worked.
The CME gap is still open around $79,000, and I still think there is a strong chance Bitcoin comes back up to close it this week. I do not see how we completely ignore that level for too long.
So today, I’m going through the full data properly.
We will look at the in-depth metrics, indicators, technical analysis, liquidity, volume, open interest, and market structure to work out whether Bitcoin is more likely to move down or up next.
We are now on a long streak of being correct, and I want to keep that going.
So let’s use our brains, ignore the noise, and follow the money.
Because in this market, the best edge you can have is learning how to read where the money is actually going.
👍15🔥7
TODAY’S TRADING UPDATE
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Next up, today’s trading update.
We still have open positions on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Intel.
The Intel long position is starting to recover. It was around $3,000 in drawdown the other day, and now it is coming back nicely. AI-related stocks have began rising again after news hit yesterday, so that one is starting to look a lot better.
Back to crypto.
Today is Wednesday, and I still think the CME gap is likely to close at some point.
As time goes on, the level Bitcoin needs to reclaim is becoming more and more obvious.
That level is $76,900.
For me, Bitcoin needs a clean and consistent break above $76,900, ideally with a one-hour candle close above that level.
If that happens, then in theory, it opens the door for a move back towards the $80,000 region.
In terms of the current open trades:
Bitcoin: $3 million short
Ethereum: $3 million short
Solana: $2 million short
Current unrealised P&L:
Bitcoin: +$151,800
Ethereum: +$210,500
Solana: +$190,600
Combined unrealised P&L is now around $551,000.
Total account equity is sitting around $2.816 million, which means we are now roughly $816,000 in profit over the past nine days.
Naturally, I want to manage this as well as possible from here.
The trades are working, but the market is now at a very important decision point. If Bitcoin reclaims $76,900, we have to respect the potential for a move back towards the CME gap and possibly the $80,000 area.
If it fails there, then the downside case remains very much alive.
So now we start digging properly into the on-chain data, volume, open interest, liquidation maps, and technical structure to work out whether this is the point to hold, trim, or prepare for a reversal.
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Next up, today’s trading update.
We still have open positions on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Intel.
The Intel long position is starting to recover. It was around $3,000 in drawdown the other day, and now it is coming back nicely. AI-related stocks have began rising again after news hit yesterday, so that one is starting to look a lot better.
Back to crypto.
Today is Wednesday, and I still think the CME gap is likely to close at some point.
As time goes on, the level Bitcoin needs to reclaim is becoming more and more obvious.
That level is $76,900.
For me, Bitcoin needs a clean and consistent break above $76,900, ideally with a one-hour candle close above that level.
If that happens, then in theory, it opens the door for a move back towards the $80,000 region.
In terms of the current open trades:
Bitcoin: $3 million short
Ethereum: $3 million short
Solana: $2 million short
Current unrealised P&L:
Bitcoin: +$151,800
Ethereum: +$210,500
Solana: +$190,600
Combined unrealised P&L is now around $551,000.
Total account equity is sitting around $2.816 million, which means we are now roughly $816,000 in profit over the past nine days.
Naturally, I want to manage this as well as possible from here.
The trades are working, but the market is now at a very important decision point. If Bitcoin reclaims $76,900, we have to respect the potential for a move back towards the CME gap and possibly the $80,000 area.
If it fails there, then the downside case remains very much alive.
So now we start digging properly into the on-chain data, volume, open interest, liquidation maps, and technical structure to work out whether this is the point to hold, trim, or prepare for a reversal.
🔥10❤2👏2
BITCOIN SPOT ETF FLOW CHECK
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It is still early in the morning, so not every ETF has published full flow data for yesterday yet.
But from what we can already see, it does not look great.
FBTC has already reported another small reduction, with around 22 BTC leaving the fund.
Then we have BRRR, the CoinShares/Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF. This is nowhere near as large or as popular as the bigger funds like IBIT, FBTC, or GBTC, but it is still worth watching because smaller funds can sometimes show early signs of wider weakness.
BRRR has reportedly sold around 49 BTC, which is a notable move for a fund of that size.
To be clear, I would not call this the first time BRRR has ever seen outflows, because recent public ETF flow tables do show previous negative flow days. But it is still important because it adds to the broader picture: ETF demand is not looking strong right now.
The key point is not just one fund selling.
The key point is that we are seeing weakness across multiple ETF products while Bitcoin is already sitting in a fragile part of the range.
If more data comes in later today and confirms broader ETF outflows, then that supports the downside case again.
For now, it is still early, but the first signs from ETF flows are not exactly bullish.
SOLANA ETF FLOWS: IMPORTANT CONTEXT
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One thing worth pointing out here is Solana.
The Solana ETF flow data looks completely different to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows are moving both ways. Funds buy, sell, rotate, and rebalance.
Solana looks much more one-directional.
To be clear, May 1 does not look like the official U.S. Solana ETF launch date. That may just be where this chart starts tracking data.
The first U.S.-listed Solana + staking ETF, SSK, launched on July 2, 2025.
The bigger spot Solana ETF wave then started with Bitwise’s BSOL launching on October 28, 2025, followed by Grayscale converting its Solana product the next day, with VanEck, Fidelity, and others then entering or adjusting filings.
That matters because Solana is now going through the same institutional ETF cycle that Bitcoin and Ethereum already went through.
New funds launch. They need exposure. They need inventory. That means they have to buy SOL.
On the chart, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Grayscale appear to be consistent buyers, while VanEck has done a bit more trading around the position.
That is one of the reasons I remain so bullish on Solana long term, and why I hold a large spot position.
But short term, there is another side to this.
If Solana ETFs are buying while the wider crypto market is weak, that ETF demand could be supporting the price more than people realise.
So Solana may look stronger than the rest of the market because institutional ETF flows are absorbing some of the selling pressure.
That is bullish long term, but it also means we need to be careful when reading the chart.
Some of this strength may be real demand, and some of it may simply be ETF accumulation holding the market up.
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It is still early in the morning, so not every ETF has published full flow data for yesterday yet.
But from what we can already see, it does not look great.
FBTC has already reported another small reduction, with around 22 BTC leaving the fund.
Then we have BRRR, the CoinShares/Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF. This is nowhere near as large or as popular as the bigger funds like IBIT, FBTC, or GBTC, but it is still worth watching because smaller funds can sometimes show early signs of wider weakness.
BRRR has reportedly sold around 49 BTC, which is a notable move for a fund of that size.
To be clear, I would not call this the first time BRRR has ever seen outflows, because recent public ETF flow tables do show previous negative flow days. But it is still important because it adds to the broader picture: ETF demand is not looking strong right now.
The key point is not just one fund selling.
The key point is that we are seeing weakness across multiple ETF products while Bitcoin is already sitting in a fragile part of the range.
If more data comes in later today and confirms broader ETF outflows, then that supports the downside case again.
For now, it is still early, but the first signs from ETF flows are not exactly bullish.
SOLANA ETF FLOWS: IMPORTANT CONTEXT
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One thing worth pointing out here is Solana.
The Solana ETF flow data looks completely different to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows are moving both ways. Funds buy, sell, rotate, and rebalance.
Solana looks much more one-directional.
To be clear, May 1 does not look like the official U.S. Solana ETF launch date. That may just be where this chart starts tracking data.
The first U.S.-listed Solana + staking ETF, SSK, launched on July 2, 2025.
The bigger spot Solana ETF wave then started with Bitwise’s BSOL launching on October 28, 2025, followed by Grayscale converting its Solana product the next day, with VanEck, Fidelity, and others then entering or adjusting filings.
That matters because Solana is now going through the same institutional ETF cycle that Bitcoin and Ethereum already went through.
New funds launch. They need exposure. They need inventory. That means they have to buy SOL.
On the chart, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Grayscale appear to be consistent buyers, while VanEck has done a bit more trading around the position.
That is one of the reasons I remain so bullish on Solana long term, and why I hold a large spot position.
But short term, there is another side to this.
If Solana ETFs are buying while the wider crypto market is weak, that ETF demand could be supporting the price more than people realise.
So Solana may look stronger than the rest of the market because institutional ETF flows are absorbing some of the selling pressure.
That is bullish long term, but it also means we need to be careful when reading the chart.
Some of this strength may be real demand, and some of it may simply be ETF accumulation holding the market up.
👍6
FUNDING RATES, SENTIMENT & VOLUME CHECK
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Now let’s look at the funding rates.
Today, we are seeing a lot less green and a lot more funding moving back towards neutral, with some markets pushing above neutral again.
That suggests the aggressive short-side pressure is cooling off, and the usual bullish bias is starting to return.
We can also use the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index as a quick sentiment check. Over the past 24 hours, sentiment has ticked up slightly, but the real question is: who is that sentiment actually coming from?
Because when we look at the past four hours and the past one hour, there are still more shorts than longs by around 2%.
That suggests retail is now shorting.
That is something to be careful with, because retail being heavily short can sometimes become a reason for the market to squeeze back up.
But funding rates are not deeply negative, which means there is still long-side demand coming in to offset some of that short pressure.
So the signal is mixed.
Short-term, there is a risk of a squeeze.
But the broader volume data still does not look healthy.
Looking at the Bitcoin volume overview, Bitcoin spot volume is down 34.19% over the past 24 hours to around $4.28 billion.
Bitcoin futures volume is also down 34.25%.
This is not weekend data. This is a normal working day, so volume dropping that heavily is not a great sign.
On top of that, spot taker sells are still showing around 2% more sell pressure than buy pressure.
Futures taker data is also still showing around 1% more sell pressure than buy pressure.
And spot volume is still making up less than 7% of total Bitcoin volume.
That is the part I do not like.
A market cannot sustainably hold these price levels if spot demand stays this weak. Futures can push price around in the short term, but if real spot buyers are not stepping in with size, the structure remains fragile.
So while funding and short-term sentiment are starting to show some squeeze risk, the volume data still says the market is weak.
For now, I still do not see enough evidence that this is a healthy recovery.
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Now let’s look at the funding rates.
Today, we are seeing a lot less green and a lot more funding moving back towards neutral, with some markets pushing above neutral again.
That suggests the aggressive short-side pressure is cooling off, and the usual bullish bias is starting to return.
We can also use the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index as a quick sentiment check. Over the past 24 hours, sentiment has ticked up slightly, but the real question is: who is that sentiment actually coming from?
Because when we look at the past four hours and the past one hour, there are still more shorts than longs by around 2%.
That suggests retail is now shorting.
That is something to be careful with, because retail being heavily short can sometimes become a reason for the market to squeeze back up.
But funding rates are not deeply negative, which means there is still long-side demand coming in to offset some of that short pressure.
So the signal is mixed.
Short-term, there is a risk of a squeeze.
But the broader volume data still does not look healthy.
Looking at the Bitcoin volume overview, Bitcoin spot volume is down 34.19% over the past 24 hours to around $4.28 billion.
Bitcoin futures volume is also down 34.25%.
This is not weekend data. This is a normal working day, so volume dropping that heavily is not a great sign.
On top of that, spot taker sells are still showing around 2% more sell pressure than buy pressure.
Futures taker data is also still showing around 1% more sell pressure than buy pressure.
And spot volume is still making up less than 7% of total Bitcoin volume.
That is the part I do not like.
A market cannot sustainably hold these price levels if spot demand stays this weak. Futures can push price around in the short term, but if real spot buyers are not stepping in with size, the structure remains fragile.
So while funding and short-term sentiment are starting to show some squeeze risk, the volume data still says the market is weak.
For now, I still do not see enough evidence that this is a healthy recovery.
👍6😁1
BITCOIN & ETHEREUM LIQUIDATION HEAT MAP OVERVIEW
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Now let’s look at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map.
Today, Bitcoin has a massive liquidation level sitting just below current price. If we lose $76,000, there are potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations waiting underneath.
If that level breaks properly, I think the move could get violent very quickly.
We could easily shoot down through $75,000, pause somewhere around $74,500 to $74,000, and then potentially continue towards the $70,000 region.
If Bitcoin loses support around where we are now, I genuinely think the drop could be brutal. It would line up with the more aggressive downside chart I showed at the start of today’s analysis.
The Bitcoin liquidation heat map does not look good.
I also like comparing different liquidation heat maps to understand both sides of the market, and Ethereum looks slightly different on the same 48-hour view.
On the Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is more liquidity above current price than below. That suggests Ethereum may actually be in a slightly more bullish short-term position than Bitcoin.
But market direction is king.
If Bitcoin starts breaking down, Ethereum is unlikely to ignore that.
When we zoom out to the higher timeframe heat maps, the picture gets more bearish again.
On the one-month Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is a huge liquidity zone around $1,856. If ETH starts stalling here and the market rolls over, that is the kind of level I would expect Ethereum to move towards.
Bitcoin shows a similar picture on the higher timeframe heat map.
There are major downside liquidity levels below price, and not nearly as much above. The upside liquidity is thinner because Bitcoin smashed through that range quickly, which means the market has not had enough time to build a proper liquidity magnet above.
So Bitcoin is lacking upside magnetism right now.
The stronger liquidity pull is still below.
At this point, most of the data is still pointing downwards. That is why I am not in a rush to exit this short position too early.
If this move opens up properly, it could become a very serious trade.
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Now let’s look at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map.
Today, Bitcoin has a massive liquidation level sitting just below current price. If we lose $76,000, there are potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations waiting underneath.
If that level breaks properly, I think the move could get violent very quickly.
We could easily shoot down through $75,000, pause somewhere around $74,500 to $74,000, and then potentially continue towards the $70,000 region.
If Bitcoin loses support around where we are now, I genuinely think the drop could be brutal. It would line up with the more aggressive downside chart I showed at the start of today’s analysis.
The Bitcoin liquidation heat map does not look good.
I also like comparing different liquidation heat maps to understand both sides of the market, and Ethereum looks slightly different on the same 48-hour view.
On the Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is more liquidity above current price than below. That suggests Ethereum may actually be in a slightly more bullish short-term position than Bitcoin.
But market direction is king.
If Bitcoin starts breaking down, Ethereum is unlikely to ignore that.
When we zoom out to the higher timeframe heat maps, the picture gets more bearish again.
On the one-month Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is a huge liquidity zone around $1,856. If ETH starts stalling here and the market rolls over, that is the kind of level I would expect Ethereum to move towards.
Bitcoin shows a similar picture on the higher timeframe heat map.
There are major downside liquidity levels below price, and not nearly as much above. The upside liquidity is thinner because Bitcoin smashed through that range quickly, which means the market has not had enough time to build a proper liquidity magnet above.
So Bitcoin is lacking upside magnetism right now.
The stronger liquidity pull is still below.
At this point, most of the data is still pointing downwards. That is why I am not in a rush to exit this short position too early.
If this move opens up properly, it could become a very serious trade.
👍6❤3
BITCOIN & ETHEREUM OPEN INTEREST CHECK
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Now let’s look at Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest. I’ve attached both charts to this Telegram post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
Bitcoin open interest has dropped by around $500 million this morning. Since that drop, the price of Bitcoin has only moved down by about $300. Proportionally, that does not really make sense. We have had roughly a 2% drop in liquidity, but only about a 0.5% drop in price, which suggests that price has not fully reacted yet to the amount of liquidity that has left the market.
In simple terms, Bitcoin still looks expensive relative to the liquidity underneath it. If the liquidity drops harder than the price, then in theory, the next move should still be downwards as price catches up with the change in market structure.
This is exactly why I do this analysis in real time. I am discovering the data as I go through it, the same way you are, and that is the point of the group. We are not here to force a bullish or bearish opinion. We are here to challenge the bias every day and make sure the trade still makes sense.
That is how you hold a big position properly. You do not just sit there blindly hoping. You keep testing the idea against the data. If the data changes, the trade changes. But right now, this Bitcoin open interest data still supports the downside case.
The trade is already massively profitable, but the question is whether this becomes much bigger. That is what we are trying to work out properly.
Ethereum is showing a similar story, but not quite as extreme. ETH has not had the same aggressive drop in open interest as Bitcoin, but it has still seen a meaningful move. Ethereum open interest is down around 1%, and price is also down around 1%, so that relationship is more balanced than Bitcoin.
So Bitcoin looks like it still has more downside pressure to release, while Ethereum simply looks heavy and bearish.
Now we need to move over to the charts and see whether the technical structure agrees with the data.
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Now let’s look at Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest. I’ve attached both charts to this Telegram post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
Bitcoin open interest has dropped by around $500 million this morning. Since that drop, the price of Bitcoin has only moved down by about $300. Proportionally, that does not really make sense. We have had roughly a 2% drop in liquidity, but only about a 0.5% drop in price, which suggests that price has not fully reacted yet to the amount of liquidity that has left the market.
In simple terms, Bitcoin still looks expensive relative to the liquidity underneath it. If the liquidity drops harder than the price, then in theory, the next move should still be downwards as price catches up with the change in market structure.
This is exactly why I do this analysis in real time. I am discovering the data as I go through it, the same way you are, and that is the point of the group. We are not here to force a bullish or bearish opinion. We are here to challenge the bias every day and make sure the trade still makes sense.
That is how you hold a big position properly. You do not just sit there blindly hoping. You keep testing the idea against the data. If the data changes, the trade changes. But right now, this Bitcoin open interest data still supports the downside case.
The trade is already massively profitable, but the question is whether this becomes much bigger. That is what we are trying to work out properly.
Ethereum is showing a similar story, but not quite as extreme. ETH has not had the same aggressive drop in open interest as Bitcoin, but it has still seen a meaningful move. Ethereum open interest is down around 1%, and price is also down around 1%, so that relationship is more balanced than Bitcoin.
So Bitcoin looks like it still has more downside pressure to release, while Ethereum simply looks heavy and bearish.
Now we need to move over to the charts and see whether the technical structure agrees with the data.
👏7❤1
BITCOIN UPSIDE RESISTANCE LEVELS
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Now it is time to get onto the price levels, and I want to start by looking at the upside resistance on Bitcoin.
The difficult part here is knowing exactly which level is the correct one to plot. So what I like to do is plot every reasonable level that I can see, and then look for the band that starts forming between them.
When multiple levels start lining up in the same area, that gives us a more useful resistance zone rather than relying on one random line.
The key area I have highlighted with the red circle is where these resistance lines start intersecting. That intersection is around $76,800, which makes it the first important upside level.
If Bitcoin trades above $76,800 and then manages to break above $77,000, that becomes much more important. The $77,000 level is the final major resistance in this immediate structure, and it also lines up almost perfectly with the top of the VRVP range.
If Bitcoin breaks that cleanly, I think price can move very quickly from $77,000 to around $78,000.
From there, the next obvious step would be towards $79,000, because that is where the CME gap is sitting. If Bitcoin breaks this short-term downtrend soon, I think it is very likely that the CME gap gets closed.
This also lines up with what we have seen in the open interest data. We can prove that a lot of short positions have opened recently, and those shorts could start coming under pressure if Bitcoin begins breaking higher.
That is why we do not make reactionary decisions.
When we are considering making a decision, we then analyse that decision properly and check whether the data actually supports it.
Right now, the read is still fairly simple: short term, there is upside risk. Mid-term and longer-term, the broader structure still points lower.
All roads still point down overall, but that can change if Bitcoin starts breaking back above the key levels.
So we need to respect the danger zone above $76,800. We are not far away from it, and if Bitcoin gets through there, the move towards $79,000 becomes very realistic.
The most annoying scenario would be Bitcoin pushing up to close the CME gap around $79,000, making the short uncomfortable, then some bad news hits and the market rolls over properly from there.
That kind of move would not surprise me at all.
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Now it is time to get onto the price levels, and I want to start by looking at the upside resistance on Bitcoin.
The difficult part here is knowing exactly which level is the correct one to plot. So what I like to do is plot every reasonable level that I can see, and then look for the band that starts forming between them.
When multiple levels start lining up in the same area, that gives us a more useful resistance zone rather than relying on one random line.
The key area I have highlighted with the red circle is where these resistance lines start intersecting. That intersection is around $76,800, which makes it the first important upside level.
If Bitcoin trades above $76,800 and then manages to break above $77,000, that becomes much more important. The $77,000 level is the final major resistance in this immediate structure, and it also lines up almost perfectly with the top of the VRVP range.
If Bitcoin breaks that cleanly, I think price can move very quickly from $77,000 to around $78,000.
From there, the next obvious step would be towards $79,000, because that is where the CME gap is sitting. If Bitcoin breaks this short-term downtrend soon, I think it is very likely that the CME gap gets closed.
This also lines up with what we have seen in the open interest data. We can prove that a lot of short positions have opened recently, and those shorts could start coming under pressure if Bitcoin begins breaking higher.
That is why we do not make reactionary decisions.
When we are considering making a decision, we then analyse that decision properly and check whether the data actually supports it.
Right now, the read is still fairly simple: short term, there is upside risk. Mid-term and longer-term, the broader structure still points lower.
All roads still point down overall, but that can change if Bitcoin starts breaking back above the key levels.
So we need to respect the danger zone above $76,800. We are not far away from it, and if Bitcoin gets through there, the move towards $79,000 becomes very realistic.
The most annoying scenario would be Bitcoin pushing up to close the CME gap around $79,000, making the short uncomfortable, then some bad news hits and the market rolls over properly from there.
That kind of move would not surprise me at all.
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all in all, this morning the market is looking solidly 50/50 again, if it breaks the resistance it will pump very aggressively if it does not break it very soon then it will drop down to 75, probably bounce aggressively then continue the dump below 70.
I think there is just no catalyst for good and the clarity act and others dont mean anything if nobody actually wants the underlying asset because they can't save money because the government is either taxing them to poverty or fucking up inflation so hard you get poverty
look around you, in the workplace, at the shops, do these people look like bitcoin will save them? or do they look hopeless? and more than likely think that crypto is a scam and only dodgy people take crypto and crypto people are somehow lesser species, i get it all the time, retail is so depressed.
The sad part is if they just saved 10% of their income in bitcoin for 2-3 years they would be financially free, they are just too stupid and ignorant to learn. The crazy part from my perspective is i know this works becuase i watch it happen every 4 years to my community.
Even recently i'm seeing crypto used as a slur, its crazy, the UK govt banning political donations in crypto is just another step for the country away from being a prosperous tax haven.
USA is fucked becuase tis run by an orange imbecile who looks like he will be using whatever spare change they have to cause more disruption
the middle east tensions have not been higher for 40 years
Europes economy is broken, Germany is swimming in a immigration and debt crisis along with France, the Spaniards are sleeping away their economy still taking siesta for 4 hours after lunch and Italy to be fair is a really nice country and i can't wait to go back in summer, but still i think their economy is quite bad and the only healthy area is manufacturing and thats because the government gives subsidies for manufacturing in Italy
these are the things you see normally just before it gets worse, not before it gets better, remember summer historically it does get worse. Summer people lose interest, that is our opportunity. the direction is unimportant, if its a consistent downwards direction, its an easy market to make money
—————————————————————————————
JOIN THE NEXT $10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
You do not need $10,000 to join.
The goal is to take $10k to $1m, you can stop any time, you can make any trades you want, when i place trades i will be posting them, of the past 20 attempts 2 failed and 4-5 broke even, 14+ 15-40k results, 7+ 100k finish, 3 completions over $1m, the last one we fully completed took 3 months. I dream of this shit, its a challenge but one good challenge is such a boost to life.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier for everyone to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with making pennies: $1,000
Honeslty if you arn't using at least $500 if i were following i would feel like i was wasting my time, you will learn a lot, lessons mean more when you dont cheap out and use baby shmeckles. make decisions that have consequences and you will become better at making decisions.
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
Join the group chat here if you have questions or want to talk about trading bitcoin
https://t.me/TMGNETWORK
I think there is just no catalyst for good and the clarity act and others dont mean anything if nobody actually wants the underlying asset because they can't save money because the government is either taxing them to poverty or fucking up inflation so hard you get poverty
look around you, in the workplace, at the shops, do these people look like bitcoin will save them? or do they look hopeless? and more than likely think that crypto is a scam and only dodgy people take crypto and crypto people are somehow lesser species, i get it all the time, retail is so depressed.
The sad part is if they just saved 10% of their income in bitcoin for 2-3 years they would be financially free, they are just too stupid and ignorant to learn. The crazy part from my perspective is i know this works becuase i watch it happen every 4 years to my community.
Even recently i'm seeing crypto used as a slur, its crazy, the UK govt banning political donations in crypto is just another step for the country away from being a prosperous tax haven.
USA is fucked becuase tis run by an orange imbecile who looks like he will be using whatever spare change they have to cause more disruption
the middle east tensions have not been higher for 40 years
Europes economy is broken, Germany is swimming in a immigration and debt crisis along with France, the Spaniards are sleeping away their economy still taking siesta for 4 hours after lunch and Italy to be fair is a really nice country and i can't wait to go back in summer, but still i think their economy is quite bad and the only healthy area is manufacturing and thats because the government gives subsidies for manufacturing in Italy
these are the things you see normally just before it gets worse, not before it gets better, remember summer historically it does get worse. Summer people lose interest, that is our opportunity. the direction is unimportant, if its a consistent downwards direction, its an easy market to make money
—————————————————————————————
JOIN THE NEXT $10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
You do not need $10,000 to join.
The goal is to take $10k to $1m, you can stop any time, you can make any trades you want, when i place trades i will be posting them, of the past 20 attempts 2 failed and 4-5 broke even, 14+ 15-40k results, 7+ 100k finish, 3 completions over $1m, the last one we fully completed took 3 months. I dream of this shit, its a challenge but one good challenge is such a boost to life.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier for everyone to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with making pennies: $1,000
Honeslty if you arn't using at least $500 if i were following i would feel like i was wasting my time, you will learn a lot, lessons mean more when you dont cheap out and use baby shmeckles. make decisions that have consequences and you will become better at making decisions.
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
Join the group chat here if you have questions or want to talk about trading bitcoin
https://t.me/TMGNETWORK
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