BITCOIN RANGE LOW RETEST
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The market is moving around like crazy right now.

Bitcoin is retesting the low of the range around $76,000.

If Bitcoin loses $76,000 properly, this can get very messy very quickly.

I am currently sitting around $600,000 in open profit, and we have already taken roughly $270,000+ profit earlier.

That puts net equity around $2.87 million, give or take.

So the question is simple:

Would you close?

All in, the trade is up around $860,000 between realised and open profit.

Would you lock it in here, or would you keep holding for the bigger move?

👍 Close
👎 Hold

BITCOIN SPOT ETF FLOW CHECK
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It is still early in the morning, so not every ETF has published full flow data for yesterday yet.

But from what we can already see, it does not look great.

FBTC has already reported another small reduction, with around 22 BTC leaving the fund.

Then we have BRRR, the CoinShares/Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF. This is nowhere near as large or as popular as the bigger funds like IBIT, FBTC, or GBTC, but it is still worth watching because smaller funds can sometimes show early signs of wider weakness.

BRRR has reportedly sold around 49 BTC, which is a notable move for a fund of that size.

To be clear, I would not call this the first time BRRR has ever seen outflows, because recent public ETF flow tables do show previous negative flow days. But it is still important because it adds to the broader picture: ETF demand is not looking strong right now.

The key point is not just one fund selling.

The key point is that we are seeing weakness across multiple ETF products while Bitcoin is already sitting in a fragile part of the range.

If more data comes in later today and confirms broader ETF outflows, then that supports the downside case again.

For now, it is still early, but the first signs from ETF flows are not exactly bullish.


SOLANA ETF FLOWS: IMPORTANT CONTEXT
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One thing worth pointing out here is Solana.

The Solana ETF flow data looks completely different to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows are moving both ways. Funds buy, sell, rotate, and rebalance.

Solana looks much more one-directional.

To be clear, May 1 does not look like the official U.S. Solana ETF launch date. That may just be where this chart starts tracking data.

The first U.S.-listed Solana + staking ETF, SSK, launched on July 2, 2025.

The bigger spot Solana ETF wave then started with Bitwise’s BSOL launching on October 28, 2025, followed by Grayscale converting its Solana product the next day, with VanEck, Fidelity, and others then entering or adjusting filings.

That matters because Solana is now going through the same institutional ETF cycle that Bitcoin and Ethereum already went through.

New funds launch. They need exposure. They need inventory. That means they have to buy SOL.

On the chart, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Grayscale appear to be consistent buyers, while VanEck has done a bit more trading around the position.

That is one of the reasons I remain so bullish on Solana long term, and why I hold a large spot position.

But short term, there is another side to this.

If Solana ETFs are buying while the wider crypto market is weak, that ETF demand could be supporting the price more than people realise.

So Solana may look stronger than the rest of the market because institutional ETF flows are absorbing some of the selling pressure.

That is bullish long term, but it also means we need to be careful when reading the chart.

Some of this strength may be real demand, and some of it may simply be ETF accumulation holding the market up.

FUNDING RATES, SENTIMENT & VOLUME CHECK
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Now let’s look at the funding rates.

Today, we are seeing a lot less green and a lot more funding moving back towards neutral, with some markets pushing above neutral again.

That suggests the aggressive short-side pressure is cooling off, and the usual bullish bias is starting to return.

We can also use the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index as a quick sentiment check. Over the past 24 hours, sentiment has ticked up slightly, but the real question is: who is that sentiment actually coming from?

Because when we look at the past four hours and the past one hour, there are still more shorts than longs by around 2%.

That suggests retail is now shorting.

That is something to be careful with, because retail being heavily short can sometimes become a reason for the market to squeeze back up.

But funding rates are not deeply negative, which means there is still long-side demand coming in to offset some of that short pressure.

So the signal is mixed.

Short-term, there is a risk of a squeeze.

But the broader volume data still does not look healthy.

Looking at the Bitcoin volume overview, Bitcoin spot volume is down 34.19% over the past 24 hours to around $4.28 billion.

Bitcoin futures volume is also down 34.25%.

This is not weekend data. This is a normal working day, so volume dropping that heavily is not a great sign.

On top of that, spot taker sells are still showing around 2% more sell pressure than buy pressure.

Futures taker data is also still showing around 1% more sell pressure than buy pressure.

And spot volume is still making up less than 7% of total Bitcoin volume.

That is the part I do not like.

A market cannot sustainably hold these price levels if spot demand stays this weak. Futures can push price around in the short term, but if real spot buyers are not stepping in with size, the structure remains fragile.

So while funding and short-term sentiment are starting to show some squeeze risk, the volume data still says the market is weak.

For now, I still do not see enough evidence that this is a healthy recovery.

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM LIQUIDATION HEAT MAP OVERVIEW
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Now let’s look at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map.

Today, Bitcoin has a massive liquidation level sitting just below current price. If we lose $76,000, there are potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations waiting underneath.

If that level breaks properly, I think the move could get violent very quickly.

We could easily shoot down through $75,000, pause somewhere around $74,500 to $74,000, and then potentially continue towards the $70,000 region.

If Bitcoin loses support around where we are now, I genuinely think the drop could be brutal. It would line up with the more aggressive downside chart I showed at the start of today’s analysis.

The Bitcoin liquidation heat map does not look good.

I also like comparing different liquidation heat maps to understand both sides of the market, and Ethereum looks slightly different on the same 48-hour view.

On the Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is more liquidity above current price than below. That suggests Ethereum may actually be in a slightly more bullish short-term position than Bitcoin.

But market direction is king.

If Bitcoin starts breaking down, Ethereum is unlikely to ignore that.

When we zoom out to the higher timeframe heat maps, the picture gets more bearish again.

On the one-month Ethereum liquidation heat map, there is a huge liquidity zone around $1,856. If ETH starts stalling here and the market rolls over, that is the kind of level I would expect Ethereum to move towards.

Bitcoin shows a similar picture on the higher timeframe heat map.

There are major downside liquidity levels below price, and not nearly as much above. The upside liquidity is thinner because Bitcoin smashed through that range quickly, which means the market has not had enough time to build a proper liquidity magnet above.

So Bitcoin is lacking upside magnetism right now.

The stronger liquidity pull is still below.

At this point, most of the data is still pointing downwards. That is why I am not in a rush to exit this short position too early.

If this move opens up properly, it could become a very serious trade.