Forwarded from TMG CHAT
BITCOIN OPEN INTEREST: WHY THIS CHANGES THE READ
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This is where the picture changes when we look at Bitcoin open interest.
Bitcoin open interest has been in a continued decline, which is important. Even though both futures volume and spot volume have increased over the past 24 hours, the amount of committed leverage in the market is not really expanding in the same way.
That matters.
Over the past few hours, Bitcoin has moved from around $76,492 to $77,104.
During that same period, open interest has only increased from around $29.08 billion to $29.2 billion, which is roughly $120 million in new open interest.
For Bitcoin, that is not a huge increase relative to the size of the price move.
So price has moved up proportionally more than open interest has expanded. That suggests Bitcoin may be trading slightly above where the current positioning supports it, which means this area could be vulnerable to rejection.
That is why the next thing we need to look at is the shorter-term long-versus-short data.
Over the past hour or so, short volume has started coming in near the top of the range. That is important because it suggests sellers are beginning to step in exactly where Bitcoin is trying to break higher.
If that selling pressure is strong enough, it could suppress the price and stop the breakout from developing.
In that case, both sides of the plan still make sense.
The short-term short position would be correct because Bitcoin rejects from the top of the range.
And the larger-term short position would still be correct because the broader structure remains bearish.
So this is the key point:
Bitcoin has bounced, but open interest has not expanded enough to fully validate the move yet. If shorts keep stepping in at the top of the range, this rally could get capped before it turns into a real breakout.
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This is where the picture changes when we look at Bitcoin open interest.
Bitcoin open interest has been in a continued decline, which is important. Even though both futures volume and spot volume have increased over the past 24 hours, the amount of committed leverage in the market is not really expanding in the same way.
That matters.
Over the past few hours, Bitcoin has moved from around $76,492 to $77,104.
During that same period, open interest has only increased from around $29.08 billion to $29.2 billion, which is roughly $120 million in new open interest.
For Bitcoin, that is not a huge increase relative to the size of the price move.
So price has moved up proportionally more than open interest has expanded. That suggests Bitcoin may be trading slightly above where the current positioning supports it, which means this area could be vulnerable to rejection.
That is why the next thing we need to look at is the shorter-term long-versus-short data.
Over the past hour or so, short volume has started coming in near the top of the range. That is important because it suggests sellers are beginning to step in exactly where Bitcoin is trying to break higher.
If that selling pressure is strong enough, it could suppress the price and stop the breakout from developing.
In that case, both sides of the plan still make sense.
The short-term short position would be correct because Bitcoin rejects from the top of the range.
And the larger-term short position would still be correct because the broader structure remains bearish.
So this is the key point:
Bitcoin has bounced, but open interest has not expanded enough to fully validate the move yet. If shorts keep stepping in at the top of the range, this rally could get capped before it turns into a real breakout.
❤5👍5
ETHEREUM OPEN INTEREST: THE EXTRA CONTEXT
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Now let’s move over to Ethereum for more context.
Starting with Ethereum open interest, and comparing it with Bitcoin open interest, ETH is showing a similar problem.
Ethereum price has moved from around $2,077 to $2,137, which is roughly a 3% move.
Meanwhile, Ethereum open interest has only increased by around 2%.
That tells us the price has moved up faster than open interest has expanded. In simple terms, unless fresh open interest continues coming in to support the move, ETH looks roughly 1% ahead of itself here.
That supports the bearish case.
But we are also clearly at an inflection point.
You can see it on the chart, and you can see it in the data.
Ethereum spot volume has suddenly risen significantly, but price has not moved up with the same strength. That tells me a lot of the spot volume coming in is likely sell-side volume, not clean accumulation.
When we look at Ethereum volume distribution over the past 30 days, spot volume is starting to move away from the lows, but it is still only making up around 5% of total Ethereum market volume compared with futures.
That tells us Ethereum is still in a futures-led market.
Spot buyers are still not showing enough confidence to buy the underlying asset with size. And if spot demand is weak, then any pump from here is vulnerable to being sold into.
That is why I still think rallies should be treated as potential short opportunities.
So now I have to make the real decision:
Is this a longer-term short that I hold through the bounce?
Or do I close here, take profit, wait for a higher entry, and short again?
That is genuinely difficult.
Now, if we look at the futures taker volume versus spot taker volume over the past 24 hours, this is where it gets really interesting.
Futures are leaning long.
Spot is still dumping.
So the question becomes: who is right?
Because we are in a futures-led market, the futures side can absolutely push price higher in the short term. But my suspicion is that spot is showing the real underlying demand.
And if spot taker volume is still net sell-side over the past 24 hours, that tells me people still do not have the confidence to buy the dip properly.
That means any pump we get may not be sustained.
It may simply become a cash-out opportunity, potentially around the same time Bitcoin pushes towards the $77,488 area.
So the read is clear:
Short-term, futures can push the market higher.
But if spot keeps selling into the move, then I do not trust the bounce as a real reversal yet.
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Now let’s move over to Ethereum for more context.
Starting with Ethereum open interest, and comparing it with Bitcoin open interest, ETH is showing a similar problem.
Ethereum price has moved from around $2,077 to $2,137, which is roughly a 3% move.
Meanwhile, Ethereum open interest has only increased by around 2%.
That tells us the price has moved up faster than open interest has expanded. In simple terms, unless fresh open interest continues coming in to support the move, ETH looks roughly 1% ahead of itself here.
That supports the bearish case.
But we are also clearly at an inflection point.
You can see it on the chart, and you can see it in the data.
Ethereum spot volume has suddenly risen significantly, but price has not moved up with the same strength. That tells me a lot of the spot volume coming in is likely sell-side volume, not clean accumulation.
When we look at Ethereum volume distribution over the past 30 days, spot volume is starting to move away from the lows, but it is still only making up around 5% of total Ethereum market volume compared with futures.
That tells us Ethereum is still in a futures-led market.
Spot buyers are still not showing enough confidence to buy the underlying asset with size. And if spot demand is weak, then any pump from here is vulnerable to being sold into.
That is why I still think rallies should be treated as potential short opportunities.
So now I have to make the real decision:
Is this a longer-term short that I hold through the bounce?
Or do I close here, take profit, wait for a higher entry, and short again?
That is genuinely difficult.
Now, if we look at the futures taker volume versus spot taker volume over the past 24 hours, this is where it gets really interesting.
Futures are leaning long.
Spot is still dumping.
So the question becomes: who is right?
Because we are in a futures-led market, the futures side can absolutely push price higher in the short term. But my suspicion is that spot is showing the real underlying demand.
And if spot taker volume is still net sell-side over the past 24 hours, that tells me people still do not have the confidence to buy the dip properly.
That means any pump we get may not be sustained.
It may simply become a cash-out opportunity, potentially around the same time Bitcoin pushes towards the $77,488 area.
So the read is clear:
Short-term, futures can push the market higher.
But if spot keeps selling into the move, then I do not trust the bounce as a real reversal yet.
👍15👏4❤1🔥1
BITCOIN RANGE UPDATE
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Bitcoin has now hit the upper part of the range, reaching around $77,290, which was very close to the $77,488 level we were watching.
Since then, price has started to reject, and more importantly, Bitcoin has now technically lost the longer-term support level.
That means the next level is very important.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $76,800 quickly.
If we do not get back above $76,800 soon, then I think the downtrend is effectively confirmed for now, and the next move is likely back towards $76,000 and below.
So this is a key moment.
Either Bitcoin reclaims $76,800 and keeps the short-term bounce alive, or it fails here and the downside continues.
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Bitcoin has now hit the upper part of the range, reaching around $77,290, which was very close to the $77,488 level we were watching.
Since then, price has started to reject, and more importantly, Bitcoin has now technically lost the longer-term support level.
That means the next level is very important.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $76,800 quickly.
If we do not get back above $76,800 soon, then I think the downtrend is effectively confirmed for now, and the next move is likely back towards $76,000 and below.
So this is a key moment.
Either Bitcoin reclaims $76,800 and keeps the short-term bounce alive, or it fails here and the downside continues.
❤9🔥3👍1
BITCOIN SCENARIO UPDATE
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I’ve attached a screenshot here showing what is basically the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin.
Which, obviously, would be a very good scenario for the short position.
The problem is, because this scenario is so easy to chart, and because it makes so much sense on paper, that probably makes me trust it slightly less.
I still cannot shake the feeling that we may get a bullish US open, which could prolong this pump before the market eventually rolls over.
In other words, I do not fully believe we dump immediately from here.
I could be wrong, but from my perspective, the short-term move still feels more likely to be upside before downside. That was an aggressive rejection, but it was still only around a 1% move, and we are now getting closer to the US open.
So yes, it makes the trade more interesting, but it does not fully confirm the breakdown for me yet.
The difficulty is that the downside setup still looks huge.
If we are right and we hold this short all the way down, the profit potential is enormous. That is what makes the decision so difficult. There is a sensible argument for protecting profit, but there is also a very strong argument for letting the trade breathe.
I’m curious to know where everyone else is positioned.
Are you still in the short?
Did you close?
Or are you waiting for the US open before making a decision?
We are also going to start a $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge, and if you want to take part, you will need to be a Yubit user through my link.
The challenge will be free to join, but you will need a Yubit user ID and there will be a minimum trading volume requirement to participate.
I am going to be doing this with a $10,000 account, and if I am going to spend my time helping the community trade this properly, then the fair exchange is simple: use the link.
If you deposit $10,000 through my link, you can also receive a $2,000 trading bonus with no expiry, which gives you extra capital to use during the challenge.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=VIP2 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
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I’ve attached a screenshot here showing what is basically the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin.
Which, obviously, would be a very good scenario for the short position.
The problem is, because this scenario is so easy to chart, and because it makes so much sense on paper, that probably makes me trust it slightly less.
I still cannot shake the feeling that we may get a bullish US open, which could prolong this pump before the market eventually rolls over.
In other words, I do not fully believe we dump immediately from here.
I could be wrong, but from my perspective, the short-term move still feels more likely to be upside before downside. That was an aggressive rejection, but it was still only around a 1% move, and we are now getting closer to the US open.
So yes, it makes the trade more interesting, but it does not fully confirm the breakdown for me yet.
The difficulty is that the downside setup still looks huge.
If we are right and we hold this short all the way down, the profit potential is enormous. That is what makes the decision so difficult. There is a sensible argument for protecting profit, but there is also a very strong argument for letting the trade breathe.
I’m curious to know where everyone else is positioned.
Are you still in the short?
Did you close?
Or are you waiting for the US open before making a decision?
We are also going to start a $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge, and if you want to take part, you will need to be a Yubit user through my link.
The challenge will be free to join, but you will need a Yubit user ID and there will be a minimum trading volume requirement to participate.
I am going to be doing this with a $10,000 account, and if I am going to spend my time helping the community trade this properly, then the fair exchange is simple: use the link.
If you deposit $10,000 through my link, you can also receive a $2,000 trading bonus with no expiry, which gives you extra capital to use during the challenge.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=VIP2 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
❤9
TO JOIN THE NEXT $10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
USE THIS LINK, FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
USE THIS LINK, FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
👍4❤3
I MIGHT CLOSE MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT IF THIS CHART PLAYS OUT
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/vHVY_Wmw_no
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/vHVY_Wmw_no
YouTube
I MIGHT CLOSE MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT IF THIS CHART PLAYS OUT
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | $8.9M CRYPTO SHORT | BITCOIN MARKET UPDATE
Bitcoin is pumping back to the upside, and today’s video breaks down whether I should add to my short positions at higher prices or close everything and secure profits.…
Bitcoin is pumping back to the upside, and today’s video breaks down whether I should add to my short positions at higher prices or close everything and secure profits.…
👍9
BITCOIN BREAKOUT WATCH
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Bitcoin is edging closer and closer to a breakout.
The key level right now is $77,000.
If Bitcoin gets a clean five-minute candle close above $77,000, then I think we likely break the local high and push towards $77,500.
The next major zone is $77,500 to $77,600.
If Bitcoin breaks through that with strength, the short-term setup becomes a problem, and we need to seriously consider adjusting or closing the trade.
That said, based on the deeper analysis I covered in the video, this is not necessarily a panic-close situation.
The main short still has room to breathe. I think we can hold this trade as high as around $79,000 without sweating it too hard, as long as the broader data continues to support the downside case.
I am still in the tiny long positions I opened earlier as a hedge / short-term test, but they are not doing much. They are actually down a few hundred dollars, so the focus is still very clearly on the main trade.
The big position remains the $9 million Bitcoin short.
Right now, the market is at a key decision point.
Either Bitcoin breaks $77,000 cleanly and runs towards $77,500, or it rejects here and the downside trade starts opening back up again.
I am watching this level very closely.
$10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
You do not need $10,000 to join.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier for everyone to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with making pennies: $1,000
Honeslty if you arn't using at least $500 if i were following i would feel like i was wasting my time, you will learn a lot, lessons mean more when you dont cheap out and use baby shmeckles. make decisions that have consequences and you will become better at making decisions.
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Bitcoin is edging closer and closer to a breakout.
The key level right now is $77,000.
If Bitcoin gets a clean five-minute candle close above $77,000, then I think we likely break the local high and push towards $77,500.
The next major zone is $77,500 to $77,600.
If Bitcoin breaks through that with strength, the short-term setup becomes a problem, and we need to seriously consider adjusting or closing the trade.
That said, based on the deeper analysis I covered in the video, this is not necessarily a panic-close situation.
The main short still has room to breathe. I think we can hold this trade as high as around $79,000 without sweating it too hard, as long as the broader data continues to support the downside case.
I am still in the tiny long positions I opened earlier as a hedge / short-term test, but they are not doing much. They are actually down a few hundred dollars, so the focus is still very clearly on the main trade.
The big position remains the $9 million Bitcoin short.
Right now, the market is at a key decision point.
Either Bitcoin breaks $77,000 cleanly and runs towards $77,500, or it rejects here and the downside trade starts opening back up again.
I am watching this level very closely.
$10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
You do not need $10,000 to join.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier for everyone to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with making pennies: $1,000
Honeslty if you arn't using at least $500 if i were following i would feel like i was wasting my time, you will learn a lot, lessons mean more when you dont cheap out and use baby shmeckles. make decisions that have consequences and you will become better at making decisions.
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
👍6❤1
BOT BROKEN UPDATE It is being fixed, bear with me, apparently its affecting everyone so its a thing
UPDATE 2
So for some reason it let 14 people in then crapped itself, i think because i changed the group name
UPDATE 3
You can make an account and deposit now here
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=VIP2 👈
When complete and bot is back online in a couple hours just put your UID in the bot and you will be admitted to the group
UPDATE 2
So for some reason it let 14 people in then crapped itself, i think because i changed the group name
UPDATE 3
You can make an account and deposit now here
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=VIP2 👈
When complete and bot is back online in a couple hours just put your UID in the bot and you will be admitted to the group
Yubit
YUBIT: Secure Cryptocurrency Exchange to Buy & Sell Bitcoin, Ethereum & Altcoins
Trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and top cryptocurrencies safely on YUBIT — a trusted crypto exchange with low fees, fast transactions, and advanced trading tools. Start trading in minutes.
👏4❤3
THE TELEGRAM BOT IS FIXED $10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
You do not need $10,000 to join.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier for everyone to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with making pennies: $1,000
Honeslty if you arn't using at least $500 if i were following i would feel like i was wasting my time, you will learn a lot, lessons mean more when you dont cheap out and use baby shmeckles. make decisions that have consequences and you will become better at making decisions.
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
Join the group chat here if you have questions or want to talk about trading bitcoin
https://t.me/TMGNETWORK
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
You do not need $10,000 to join.
I am trading the challenge with $10,000 because it makes the maths easier for everyone to follow, but members can start with less or more.
Minimum: $100
Recommended minimum to not waste your own time paddling around with making pennies: $1,000
Honeslty if you arn't using at least $500 if i were following i would feel like i was wasting my time, you will learn a lot, lessons mean more when you dont cheap out and use baby shmeckles. make decisions that have consequences and you will become better at making decisions.
The challenge is free to join, but you must be a Yubit user through my link, have your user ID, and meet the minimum volume requirement.
Use this link and follow the instructions:
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
Join the group chat here if you have questions or want to talk about trading bitcoin
https://t.me/TMGNETWORK
❤1
BITCOIN RANGE LOW RETEST
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The market is moving around like crazy right now.
Bitcoin is retesting the low of the range around $76,000.
If Bitcoin loses $76,000 properly, this can get very messy very quickly.
I am currently sitting around $600,000 in open profit, and we have already taken roughly $270,000+ profit earlier.
That puts net equity around $2.87 million, give or take.
So the question is simple:
Would you close?
All in, the trade is up around $860,000 between realised and open profit.
Would you lock it in here, or would you keep holding for the bigger move?
👍 Close
👎 Hold
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The market is moving around like crazy right now.
Bitcoin is retesting the low of the range around $76,000.
If Bitcoin loses $76,000 properly, this can get very messy very quickly.
I am currently sitting around $600,000 in open profit, and we have already taken roughly $270,000+ profit earlier.
That puts net equity around $2.87 million, give or take.
So the question is simple:
Would you close?
All in, the trade is up around $860,000 between realised and open profit.
Would you lock it in here, or would you keep holding for the bigger move?
👍 Close
👎 Hold
👍58👎38❤1
GOOD MORNING, BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS
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Good morning everybody.
It is time to get into this morning’s Bitcoin price analysis.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,750, give or take.
The temptation right now is to chart this in the most obvious way possible.
We lost RSI support, so the easy assumption is that Bitcoin continues lower and does a full reset, similar to what happened last time.
A lot of people in the market are expecting history to repeat. The comparison being made is the previous move from around $97,500 down to $59,500.
If Bitcoin repeated that same style of move from the current range high around $82,500, then theoretically, price could fall as low as the $45,000 region.
But does that actually sound realistic?
To me, that sounds like a genuinely catastrophic scenario. Something seriously bad would need to happen for Bitcoin to move that low from here.
What I think is far more realistic is a revisit of the liquidity range around $68,000, which I’ve highlighted on the chart.
That is a major liquidity zone and a very obvious downside magnet.
But here is the problem with being blindly bearish today:
There are also multiple liquidity magnets above price.
In fact, right now, I can see several important liquidity zones above Bitcoin, while there is really one major zone below.
That means we have to question the bearish theory again today.
We cannot just walk into this analysis assuming we are correct because the last few calls have worked.
The CME gap is still open around $79,000, and I still think there is a strong chance Bitcoin comes back up to close it this week. I do not see how we completely ignore that level for too long.
So today, I’m going through the full data properly.
We will look at the in-depth metrics, indicators, technical analysis, liquidity, volume, open interest, and market structure to work out whether Bitcoin is more likely to move down or up next.
We are now on a long streak of being correct, and I want to keep that going.
So let’s use our brains, ignore the noise, and follow the money.
Because in this market, the best edge you can have is learning how to read where the money is actually going.
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Good morning everybody.
It is time to get into this morning’s Bitcoin price analysis.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,750, give or take.
The temptation right now is to chart this in the most obvious way possible.
We lost RSI support, so the easy assumption is that Bitcoin continues lower and does a full reset, similar to what happened last time.
A lot of people in the market are expecting history to repeat. The comparison being made is the previous move from around $97,500 down to $59,500.
If Bitcoin repeated that same style of move from the current range high around $82,500, then theoretically, price could fall as low as the $45,000 region.
But does that actually sound realistic?
To me, that sounds like a genuinely catastrophic scenario. Something seriously bad would need to happen for Bitcoin to move that low from here.
What I think is far more realistic is a revisit of the liquidity range around $68,000, which I’ve highlighted on the chart.
That is a major liquidity zone and a very obvious downside magnet.
But here is the problem with being blindly bearish today:
There are also multiple liquidity magnets above price.
In fact, right now, I can see several important liquidity zones above Bitcoin, while there is really one major zone below.
That means we have to question the bearish theory again today.
We cannot just walk into this analysis assuming we are correct because the last few calls have worked.
The CME gap is still open around $79,000, and I still think there is a strong chance Bitcoin comes back up to close it this week. I do not see how we completely ignore that level for too long.
So today, I’m going through the full data properly.
We will look at the in-depth metrics, indicators, technical analysis, liquidity, volume, open interest, and market structure to work out whether Bitcoin is more likely to move down or up next.
We are now on a long streak of being correct, and I want to keep that going.
So let’s use our brains, ignore the noise, and follow the money.
Because in this market, the best edge you can have is learning how to read where the money is actually going.
👍15🔥7
TODAY’S TRADING UPDATE
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Next up, today’s trading update.
We still have open positions on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Intel.
The Intel long position is starting to recover. It was around $3,000 in drawdown the other day, and now it is coming back nicely. AI-related stocks have began rising again after news hit yesterday, so that one is starting to look a lot better.
Back to crypto.
Today is Wednesday, and I still think the CME gap is likely to close at some point.
As time goes on, the level Bitcoin needs to reclaim is becoming more and more obvious.
That level is $76,900.
For me, Bitcoin needs a clean and consistent break above $76,900, ideally with a one-hour candle close above that level.
If that happens, then in theory, it opens the door for a move back towards the $80,000 region.
In terms of the current open trades:
Bitcoin: $3 million short
Ethereum: $3 million short
Solana: $2 million short
Current unrealised P&L:
Bitcoin: +$151,800
Ethereum: +$210,500
Solana: +$190,600
Combined unrealised P&L is now around $551,000.
Total account equity is sitting around $2.816 million, which means we are now roughly $816,000 in profit over the past nine days.
Naturally, I want to manage this as well as possible from here.
The trades are working, but the market is now at a very important decision point. If Bitcoin reclaims $76,900, we have to respect the potential for a move back towards the CME gap and possibly the $80,000 area.
If it fails there, then the downside case remains very much alive.
So now we start digging properly into the on-chain data, volume, open interest, liquidation maps, and technical structure to work out whether this is the point to hold, trim, or prepare for a reversal.
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Next up, today’s trading update.
We still have open positions on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Intel.
The Intel long position is starting to recover. It was around $3,000 in drawdown the other day, and now it is coming back nicely. AI-related stocks have began rising again after news hit yesterday, so that one is starting to look a lot better.
Back to crypto.
Today is Wednesday, and I still think the CME gap is likely to close at some point.
As time goes on, the level Bitcoin needs to reclaim is becoming more and more obvious.
That level is $76,900.
For me, Bitcoin needs a clean and consistent break above $76,900, ideally with a one-hour candle close above that level.
If that happens, then in theory, it opens the door for a move back towards the $80,000 region.
In terms of the current open trades:
Bitcoin: $3 million short
Ethereum: $3 million short
Solana: $2 million short
Current unrealised P&L:
Bitcoin: +$151,800
Ethereum: +$210,500
Solana: +$190,600
Combined unrealised P&L is now around $551,000.
Total account equity is sitting around $2.816 million, which means we are now roughly $816,000 in profit over the past nine days.
Naturally, I want to manage this as well as possible from here.
The trades are working, but the market is now at a very important decision point. If Bitcoin reclaims $76,900, we have to respect the potential for a move back towards the CME gap and possibly the $80,000 area.
If it fails there, then the downside case remains very much alive.
So now we start digging properly into the on-chain data, volume, open interest, liquidation maps, and technical structure to work out whether this is the point to hold, trim, or prepare for a reversal.
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BITCOIN SPOT ETF FLOW CHECK
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It is still early in the morning, so not every ETF has published full flow data for yesterday yet.
But from what we can already see, it does not look great.
FBTC has already reported another small reduction, with around 22 BTC leaving the fund.
Then we have BRRR, the CoinShares/Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF. This is nowhere near as large or as popular as the bigger funds like IBIT, FBTC, or GBTC, but it is still worth watching because smaller funds can sometimes show early signs of wider weakness.
BRRR has reportedly sold around 49 BTC, which is a notable move for a fund of that size.
To be clear, I would not call this the first time BRRR has ever seen outflows, because recent public ETF flow tables do show previous negative flow days. But it is still important because it adds to the broader picture: ETF demand is not looking strong right now.
The key point is not just one fund selling.
The key point is that we are seeing weakness across multiple ETF products while Bitcoin is already sitting in a fragile part of the range.
If more data comes in later today and confirms broader ETF outflows, then that supports the downside case again.
For now, it is still early, but the first signs from ETF flows are not exactly bullish.
SOLANA ETF FLOWS: IMPORTANT CONTEXT
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One thing worth pointing out here is Solana.
The Solana ETF flow data looks completely different to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows are moving both ways. Funds buy, sell, rotate, and rebalance.
Solana looks much more one-directional.
To be clear, May 1 does not look like the official U.S. Solana ETF launch date. That may just be where this chart starts tracking data.
The first U.S.-listed Solana + staking ETF, SSK, launched on July 2, 2025.
The bigger spot Solana ETF wave then started with Bitwise’s BSOL launching on October 28, 2025, followed by Grayscale converting its Solana product the next day, with VanEck, Fidelity, and others then entering or adjusting filings.
That matters because Solana is now going through the same institutional ETF cycle that Bitcoin and Ethereum already went through.
New funds launch. They need exposure. They need inventory. That means they have to buy SOL.
On the chart, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Grayscale appear to be consistent buyers, while VanEck has done a bit more trading around the position.
That is one of the reasons I remain so bullish on Solana long term, and why I hold a large spot position.
But short term, there is another side to this.
If Solana ETFs are buying while the wider crypto market is weak, that ETF demand could be supporting the price more than people realise.
So Solana may look stronger than the rest of the market because institutional ETF flows are absorbing some of the selling pressure.
That is bullish long term, but it also means we need to be careful when reading the chart.
Some of this strength may be real demand, and some of it may simply be ETF accumulation holding the market up.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
It is still early in the morning, so not every ETF has published full flow data for yesterday yet.
But from what we can already see, it does not look great.
FBTC has already reported another small reduction, with around 22 BTC leaving the fund.
Then we have BRRR, the CoinShares/Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF. This is nowhere near as large or as popular as the bigger funds like IBIT, FBTC, or GBTC, but it is still worth watching because smaller funds can sometimes show early signs of wider weakness.
BRRR has reportedly sold around 49 BTC, which is a notable move for a fund of that size.
To be clear, I would not call this the first time BRRR has ever seen outflows, because recent public ETF flow tables do show previous negative flow days. But it is still important because it adds to the broader picture: ETF demand is not looking strong right now.
The key point is not just one fund selling.
The key point is that we are seeing weakness across multiple ETF products while Bitcoin is already sitting in a fragile part of the range.
If more data comes in later today and confirms broader ETF outflows, then that supports the downside case again.
For now, it is still early, but the first signs from ETF flows are not exactly bullish.
SOLANA ETF FLOWS: IMPORTANT CONTEXT
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
One thing worth pointing out here is Solana.
The Solana ETF flow data looks completely different to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows are moving both ways. Funds buy, sell, rotate, and rebalance.
Solana looks much more one-directional.
To be clear, May 1 does not look like the official U.S. Solana ETF launch date. That may just be where this chart starts tracking data.
The first U.S.-listed Solana + staking ETF, SSK, launched on July 2, 2025.
The bigger spot Solana ETF wave then started with Bitwise’s BSOL launching on October 28, 2025, followed by Grayscale converting its Solana product the next day, with VanEck, Fidelity, and others then entering or adjusting filings.
That matters because Solana is now going through the same institutional ETF cycle that Bitcoin and Ethereum already went through.
New funds launch. They need exposure. They need inventory. That means they have to buy SOL.
On the chart, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Grayscale appear to be consistent buyers, while VanEck has done a bit more trading around the position.
That is one of the reasons I remain so bullish on Solana long term, and why I hold a large spot position.
But short term, there is another side to this.
If Solana ETFs are buying while the wider crypto market is weak, that ETF demand could be supporting the price more than people realise.
So Solana may look stronger than the rest of the market because institutional ETF flows are absorbing some of the selling pressure.
That is bullish long term, but it also means we need to be careful when reading the chart.
Some of this strength may be real demand, and some of it may simply be ETF accumulation holding the market up.
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