FUTURES VS SPOT: WHY THIS GETS INTERESTING
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This is where things get really interesting.
Futures taker buy volume is currently higher than futures taker sell volume. But during that same 24-hour period, Bitcoin price has still been negative.
That tells us something important.
The futures market is starting to lean more bullish in the short term, while spot selling is still continuing in the background.
So we have two different things happening at the same time:
Futures traders are stepping in with more aggressive buy-side activity.
Spot sellers are still applying pressure to the market.
That makes the current structure very interesting.
A lot of the spot selling appears to be coming through the ETF side, while futures positioning looks more like traders and institutions preparing for a short-term bounce.
When we look at the spot volume chart, we are also starting to see thicker, more solid volume bars around these levels. That can indicate some accumulation starting to happen here.
You can also see it in the broader volume distribution. Futures volume is growing faster, while spot volume is starting to move back towards around 7% of the total Bitcoin volume distribution between futures and spot.
When you combine all of these things together, the short-term picture is actually starting to look bullish.
It is hard to ignore.
The problem is that the overarching trend is still bearish, and the entry on the main short position is very good.
In theory, the smarter play may be to hold the larger short through the volatility and let the bigger move play out. If the trend continues, Bitcoin can still make its way down towards the $70,000 region.
It just might take all week.
In the meantime, there may be opportunities to play the upside with smaller short-term trades while still keeping the main position open.
That is the balance I’m trying to manage here.
The bigger trend still looks bearish, but the short-term data is starting to support a bounce.
Press the like button on this post if you want me to start a new $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge.
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This is where things get really interesting.
Futures taker buy volume is currently higher than futures taker sell volume. But during that same 24-hour period, Bitcoin price has still been negative.
That tells us something important.
The futures market is starting to lean more bullish in the short term, while spot selling is still continuing in the background.
So we have two different things happening at the same time:
Futures traders are stepping in with more aggressive buy-side activity.
Spot sellers are still applying pressure to the market.
That makes the current structure very interesting.
A lot of the spot selling appears to be coming through the ETF side, while futures positioning looks more like traders and institutions preparing for a short-term bounce.
When we look at the spot volume chart, we are also starting to see thicker, more solid volume bars around these levels. That can indicate some accumulation starting to happen here.
You can also see it in the broader volume distribution. Futures volume is growing faster, while spot volume is starting to move back towards around 7% of the total Bitcoin volume distribution between futures and spot.
When you combine all of these things together, the short-term picture is actually starting to look bullish.
It is hard to ignore.
The problem is that the overarching trend is still bearish, and the entry on the main short position is very good.
In theory, the smarter play may be to hold the larger short through the volatility and let the bigger move play out. If the trend continues, Bitcoin can still make its way down towards the $70,000 region.
It just might take all week.
In the meantime, there may be opportunities to play the upside with smaller short-term trades while still keeping the main position open.
That is the balance I’m trying to manage here.
The bigger trend still looks bearish, but the short-term data is starting to support a bounce.
Press the like button on this post if you want me to start a new $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge.
👍39❤4👏1
Just for perspective i follow my own trades on all my accounts with whatever they have in them
There is no excuse to not maximise opportunities when they are higher probability setups
This is why thje $10k to $1m challenge stuff can be fun, i just turned 4k into 18k so now i can take 8k and run a free to play 10k to 1m challenge
There is no excuse to not maximise opportunities when they are higher probability setups
This is why thje $10k to $1m challenge stuff can be fun, i just turned 4k into 18k so now i can take 8k and run a free to play 10k to 1m challenge
❤14
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This one is arguably a lot more impressive $200 into 20k following the exact same trades i placed in here
Its all just max borrowing at the exact right timing
Its all just max borrowing at the exact right timing
❤6👍6🔥4
HOW I TRADE: BIG ACCOUNT, SMALL ACCOUNT, SAME OBJECTIVE
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To explain a little more about me and the way I trade, I use multiple exchanges and multiple accounts.
Sometimes I even trade against myself, although I try not to do that too often because there is not always a huge upside in it. But if I have a large position open and I think the market may temporarily move against it, I may hedge on a separate exchange rather than closing the main trade too early.
That is just how I manage risk.
Generally, I have one main account with serious capital in it, and then I have smaller accounts where I can take higher-risk trades.
The main account is for the higher-conviction, more structured positions.
The smaller accounts are where I can take more aggressive trades, use higher leverage, and test ideas without putting the main account at unnecessary risk.
That setup works for me because I know myself.
When I believe in a trade, I believe in it properly. I like taking risk. I like pushing size. That is why, this time around, I am trading with a $2 million account. It gives me enough capital to build the kind of position size that satisfies my appetite for risk, while still allowing me to manage the trade properly.
Then, if I want to take more aggressive high-leverage trades, I do that with smaller accounts.
If one of those smaller trades gets liquidated, I treat it almost like a stop loss or a hedge cost against the larger overall idea.
That may not make sense to everybody, but I have been doing this for nearly 13 or 14 years now, and I have found a system that works for me.
I love risk.
I have been rewarded in life for taking risk. The people I have seen stay stagnant are usually the people who were too scared to take any.
The people who prioritise a safe monthly income above the opportunity to build something much larger often end up being gapped over time by people who are willing to take calculated risk.
Now, to be clear, not everybody who takes risk wins.
A lot of people take risk, learn nothing, blow up, and never improve.
That is not what this group is about.
What I am trying to teach here is how to take risk intelligently. How to read the market. How to follow the money. How to understand when to press, when to hedge, when to close, and when to let a trade breathe.
This group is not about ego.
It is not about being bullish or bearish forever.
It is about being correct.
And if you are trading this market seriously, my suggestion is that you check out Yubit and consider using it as your main exchange.
Yubit is currently running an offer where, if you deposit $10,000 through my link, you can receive a $2,000 trading bonus with no expiry.
That gives you extra capital to trade with, and it fits perfectly with what we are about to do next.
We are going to start a $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge, so that extra $2,000 bonus could be very useful.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
To explain a little more about me and the way I trade, I use multiple exchanges and multiple accounts.
Sometimes I even trade against myself, although I try not to do that too often because there is not always a huge upside in it. But if I have a large position open and I think the market may temporarily move against it, I may hedge on a separate exchange rather than closing the main trade too early.
That is just how I manage risk.
Generally, I have one main account with serious capital in it, and then I have smaller accounts where I can take higher-risk trades.
The main account is for the higher-conviction, more structured positions.
The smaller accounts are where I can take more aggressive trades, use higher leverage, and test ideas without putting the main account at unnecessary risk.
That setup works for me because I know myself.
When I believe in a trade, I believe in it properly. I like taking risk. I like pushing size. That is why, this time around, I am trading with a $2 million account. It gives me enough capital to build the kind of position size that satisfies my appetite for risk, while still allowing me to manage the trade properly.
Then, if I want to take more aggressive high-leverage trades, I do that with smaller accounts.
If one of those smaller trades gets liquidated, I treat it almost like a stop loss or a hedge cost against the larger overall idea.
That may not make sense to everybody, but I have been doing this for nearly 13 or 14 years now, and I have found a system that works for me.
I love risk.
I have been rewarded in life for taking risk. The people I have seen stay stagnant are usually the people who were too scared to take any.
The people who prioritise a safe monthly income above the opportunity to build something much larger often end up being gapped over time by people who are willing to take calculated risk.
Now, to be clear, not everybody who takes risk wins.
A lot of people take risk, learn nothing, blow up, and never improve.
That is not what this group is about.
What I am trying to teach here is how to take risk intelligently. How to read the market. How to follow the money. How to understand when to press, when to hedge, when to close, and when to let a trade breathe.
This group is not about ego.
It is not about being bullish or bearish forever.
It is about being correct.
And if you are trading this market seriously, my suggestion is that you check out Yubit and consider using it as your main exchange.
Yubit is currently running an offer where, if you deposit $10,000 through my link, you can receive a $2,000 trading bonus with no expiry.
That gives you extra capital to trade with, and it fits perfectly with what we are about to do next.
We are going to start a $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge, so that extra $2,000 bonus could be very useful.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
Yubit
YUBIT: Secure Cryptocurrency Exchange to Buy & Sell Bitcoin, Ethereum & Altcoins
Trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and top cryptocurrencies safely on YUBIT — a trusted crypto exchange with low fees, fast transactions, and advanced trading tools. Start trading in minutes.
👍13❤2🔥2
BITCOIN 48-HOUR LIQUIDATION HEAT MAP
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Now we need to talk about the Bitcoin liquidation heat map on the 48-hour chart.
On this heat map, we can see liquidity sitting both above and below the current price. Despite Bitcoin pushing back up, we have not really taken out any major liquidation ranges yet.
The first key upside range starts around $77,400.
If Bitcoin breaks through that level, it likely opens the door for a move back towards $78,000. And if Bitcoin gets back above $78,000, then the CME gap probably becomes the obvious target.
So the short-term upside risk is very real.
The other important thing to point out is that, right now, Bitcoin is still making a higher low. Across this structure, we have continued to make higher lows, and that means the bearish case, although it looks obvious in some areas of the data, is not guaranteed.
The key downside level for me is $75,000.
If Bitcoin loses $75,000, then I think the game changes completely. At that point, the structure breaks, the trade opens up, and the market can crash properly.
But for as long as Bitcoin continues holding above $75,000, you have to respect the bullish argument.
That is where the difficulty is right now.
The long-term trend still looks bearish.
The mid-term trend is still holding up.
The short-term trend today is bullish.
But over the past few days, the market has been bearish.
So we have multiple timeframes giving different signals at the same time. That is why this market has to be traded dynamically.
The main short position still makes sense if the larger bearish structure plays out, but there are also opportunities to take smaller short-term trades inside the range.
That is the balance right now: protect the big position, but stay flexible enough to trade the short-term moves when the data supports them.
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Now we need to talk about the Bitcoin liquidation heat map on the 48-hour chart.
On this heat map, we can see liquidity sitting both above and below the current price. Despite Bitcoin pushing back up, we have not really taken out any major liquidation ranges yet.
The first key upside range starts around $77,400.
If Bitcoin breaks through that level, it likely opens the door for a move back towards $78,000. And if Bitcoin gets back above $78,000, then the CME gap probably becomes the obvious target.
So the short-term upside risk is very real.
The other important thing to point out is that, right now, Bitcoin is still making a higher low. Across this structure, we have continued to make higher lows, and that means the bearish case, although it looks obvious in some areas of the data, is not guaranteed.
The key downside level for me is $75,000.
If Bitcoin loses $75,000, then I think the game changes completely. At that point, the structure breaks, the trade opens up, and the market can crash properly.
But for as long as Bitcoin continues holding above $75,000, you have to respect the bullish argument.
That is where the difficulty is right now.
The long-term trend still looks bearish.
The mid-term trend is still holding up.
The short-term trend today is bullish.
But over the past few days, the market has been bearish.
So we have multiple timeframes giving different signals at the same time. That is why this market has to be traded dynamically.
The main short position still makes sense if the larger bearish structure plays out, but there are also opportunities to take smaller short-term trades inside the range.
That is the balance right now: protect the big position, but stay flexible enough to trade the short-term moves when the data supports them.
❤10
Forwarded from TMG CHAT
BITCOIN OPEN INTEREST: WHY THIS CHANGES THE READ
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This is where the picture changes when we look at Bitcoin open interest.
Bitcoin open interest has been in a continued decline, which is important. Even though both futures volume and spot volume have increased over the past 24 hours, the amount of committed leverage in the market is not really expanding in the same way.
That matters.
Over the past few hours, Bitcoin has moved from around $76,492 to $77,104.
During that same period, open interest has only increased from around $29.08 billion to $29.2 billion, which is roughly $120 million in new open interest.
For Bitcoin, that is not a huge increase relative to the size of the price move.
So price has moved up proportionally more than open interest has expanded. That suggests Bitcoin may be trading slightly above where the current positioning supports it, which means this area could be vulnerable to rejection.
That is why the next thing we need to look at is the shorter-term long-versus-short data.
Over the past hour or so, short volume has started coming in near the top of the range. That is important because it suggests sellers are beginning to step in exactly where Bitcoin is trying to break higher.
If that selling pressure is strong enough, it could suppress the price and stop the breakout from developing.
In that case, both sides of the plan still make sense.
The short-term short position would be correct because Bitcoin rejects from the top of the range.
And the larger-term short position would still be correct because the broader structure remains bearish.
So this is the key point:
Bitcoin has bounced, but open interest has not expanded enough to fully validate the move yet. If shorts keep stepping in at the top of the range, this rally could get capped before it turns into a real breakout.
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This is where the picture changes when we look at Bitcoin open interest.
Bitcoin open interest has been in a continued decline, which is important. Even though both futures volume and spot volume have increased over the past 24 hours, the amount of committed leverage in the market is not really expanding in the same way.
That matters.
Over the past few hours, Bitcoin has moved from around $76,492 to $77,104.
During that same period, open interest has only increased from around $29.08 billion to $29.2 billion, which is roughly $120 million in new open interest.
For Bitcoin, that is not a huge increase relative to the size of the price move.
So price has moved up proportionally more than open interest has expanded. That suggests Bitcoin may be trading slightly above where the current positioning supports it, which means this area could be vulnerable to rejection.
That is why the next thing we need to look at is the shorter-term long-versus-short data.
Over the past hour or so, short volume has started coming in near the top of the range. That is important because it suggests sellers are beginning to step in exactly where Bitcoin is trying to break higher.
If that selling pressure is strong enough, it could suppress the price and stop the breakout from developing.
In that case, both sides of the plan still make sense.
The short-term short position would be correct because Bitcoin rejects from the top of the range.
And the larger-term short position would still be correct because the broader structure remains bearish.
So this is the key point:
Bitcoin has bounced, but open interest has not expanded enough to fully validate the move yet. If shorts keep stepping in at the top of the range, this rally could get capped before it turns into a real breakout.
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ETHEREUM OPEN INTEREST: THE EXTRA CONTEXT
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Now let’s move over to Ethereum for more context.
Starting with Ethereum open interest, and comparing it with Bitcoin open interest, ETH is showing a similar problem.
Ethereum price has moved from around $2,077 to $2,137, which is roughly a 3% move.
Meanwhile, Ethereum open interest has only increased by around 2%.
That tells us the price has moved up faster than open interest has expanded. In simple terms, unless fresh open interest continues coming in to support the move, ETH looks roughly 1% ahead of itself here.
That supports the bearish case.
But we are also clearly at an inflection point.
You can see it on the chart, and you can see it in the data.
Ethereum spot volume has suddenly risen significantly, but price has not moved up with the same strength. That tells me a lot of the spot volume coming in is likely sell-side volume, not clean accumulation.
When we look at Ethereum volume distribution over the past 30 days, spot volume is starting to move away from the lows, but it is still only making up around 5% of total Ethereum market volume compared with futures.
That tells us Ethereum is still in a futures-led market.
Spot buyers are still not showing enough confidence to buy the underlying asset with size. And if spot demand is weak, then any pump from here is vulnerable to being sold into.
That is why I still think rallies should be treated as potential short opportunities.
So now I have to make the real decision:
Is this a longer-term short that I hold through the bounce?
Or do I close here, take profit, wait for a higher entry, and short again?
That is genuinely difficult.
Now, if we look at the futures taker volume versus spot taker volume over the past 24 hours, this is where it gets really interesting.
Futures are leaning long.
Spot is still dumping.
So the question becomes: who is right?
Because we are in a futures-led market, the futures side can absolutely push price higher in the short term. But my suspicion is that spot is showing the real underlying demand.
And if spot taker volume is still net sell-side over the past 24 hours, that tells me people still do not have the confidence to buy the dip properly.
That means any pump we get may not be sustained.
It may simply become a cash-out opportunity, potentially around the same time Bitcoin pushes towards the $77,488 area.
So the read is clear:
Short-term, futures can push the market higher.
But if spot keeps selling into the move, then I do not trust the bounce as a real reversal yet.
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Now let’s move over to Ethereum for more context.
Starting with Ethereum open interest, and comparing it with Bitcoin open interest, ETH is showing a similar problem.
Ethereum price has moved from around $2,077 to $2,137, which is roughly a 3% move.
Meanwhile, Ethereum open interest has only increased by around 2%.
That tells us the price has moved up faster than open interest has expanded. In simple terms, unless fresh open interest continues coming in to support the move, ETH looks roughly 1% ahead of itself here.
That supports the bearish case.
But we are also clearly at an inflection point.
You can see it on the chart, and you can see it in the data.
Ethereum spot volume has suddenly risen significantly, but price has not moved up with the same strength. That tells me a lot of the spot volume coming in is likely sell-side volume, not clean accumulation.
When we look at Ethereum volume distribution over the past 30 days, spot volume is starting to move away from the lows, but it is still only making up around 5% of total Ethereum market volume compared with futures.
That tells us Ethereum is still in a futures-led market.
Spot buyers are still not showing enough confidence to buy the underlying asset with size. And if spot demand is weak, then any pump from here is vulnerable to being sold into.
That is why I still think rallies should be treated as potential short opportunities.
So now I have to make the real decision:
Is this a longer-term short that I hold through the bounce?
Or do I close here, take profit, wait for a higher entry, and short again?
That is genuinely difficult.
Now, if we look at the futures taker volume versus spot taker volume over the past 24 hours, this is where it gets really interesting.
Futures are leaning long.
Spot is still dumping.
So the question becomes: who is right?
Because we are in a futures-led market, the futures side can absolutely push price higher in the short term. But my suspicion is that spot is showing the real underlying demand.
And if spot taker volume is still net sell-side over the past 24 hours, that tells me people still do not have the confidence to buy the dip properly.
That means any pump we get may not be sustained.
It may simply become a cash-out opportunity, potentially around the same time Bitcoin pushes towards the $77,488 area.
So the read is clear:
Short-term, futures can push the market higher.
But if spot keeps selling into the move, then I do not trust the bounce as a real reversal yet.
👍15👏4❤1🔥1
BITCOIN RANGE UPDATE
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Bitcoin has now hit the upper part of the range, reaching around $77,290, which was very close to the $77,488 level we were watching.
Since then, price has started to reject, and more importantly, Bitcoin has now technically lost the longer-term support level.
That means the next level is very important.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $76,800 quickly.
If we do not get back above $76,800 soon, then I think the downtrend is effectively confirmed for now, and the next move is likely back towards $76,000 and below.
So this is a key moment.
Either Bitcoin reclaims $76,800 and keeps the short-term bounce alive, or it fails here and the downside continues.
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Bitcoin has now hit the upper part of the range, reaching around $77,290, which was very close to the $77,488 level we were watching.
Since then, price has started to reject, and more importantly, Bitcoin has now technically lost the longer-term support level.
That means the next level is very important.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $76,800 quickly.
If we do not get back above $76,800 soon, then I think the downtrend is effectively confirmed for now, and the next move is likely back towards $76,000 and below.
So this is a key moment.
Either Bitcoin reclaims $76,800 and keeps the short-term bounce alive, or it fails here and the downside continues.
❤9🔥3👍1
BITCOIN SCENARIO UPDATE
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I’ve attached a screenshot here showing what is basically the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin.
Which, obviously, would be a very good scenario for the short position.
The problem is, because this scenario is so easy to chart, and because it makes so much sense on paper, that probably makes me trust it slightly less.
I still cannot shake the feeling that we may get a bullish US open, which could prolong this pump before the market eventually rolls over.
In other words, I do not fully believe we dump immediately from here.
I could be wrong, but from my perspective, the short-term move still feels more likely to be upside before downside. That was an aggressive rejection, but it was still only around a 1% move, and we are now getting closer to the US open.
So yes, it makes the trade more interesting, but it does not fully confirm the breakdown for me yet.
The difficulty is that the downside setup still looks huge.
If we are right and we hold this short all the way down, the profit potential is enormous. That is what makes the decision so difficult. There is a sensible argument for protecting profit, but there is also a very strong argument for letting the trade breathe.
I’m curious to know where everyone else is positioned.
Are you still in the short?
Did you close?
Or are you waiting for the US open before making a decision?
We are also going to start a $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge, and if you want to take part, you will need to be a Yubit user through my link.
The challenge will be free to join, but you will need a Yubit user ID and there will be a minimum trading volume requirement to participate.
I am going to be doing this with a $10,000 account, and if I am going to spend my time helping the community trade this properly, then the fair exchange is simple: use the link.
If you deposit $10,000 through my link, you can also receive a $2,000 trading bonus with no expiry, which gives you extra capital to use during the challenge.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=VIP2 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
I’ve attached a screenshot here showing what is basically the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin.
Which, obviously, would be a very good scenario for the short position.
The problem is, because this scenario is so easy to chart, and because it makes so much sense on paper, that probably makes me trust it slightly less.
I still cannot shake the feeling that we may get a bullish US open, which could prolong this pump before the market eventually rolls over.
In other words, I do not fully believe we dump immediately from here.
I could be wrong, but from my perspective, the short-term move still feels more likely to be upside before downside. That was an aggressive rejection, but it was still only around a 1% move, and we are now getting closer to the US open.
So yes, it makes the trade more interesting, but it does not fully confirm the breakdown for me yet.
The difficulty is that the downside setup still looks huge.
If we are right and we hold this short all the way down, the profit potential is enormous. That is what makes the decision so difficult. There is a sensible argument for protecting profit, but there is also a very strong argument for letting the trade breathe.
I’m curious to know where everyone else is positioned.
Are you still in the short?
Did you close?
Or are you waiting for the US open before making a decision?
We are also going to start a $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge, and if you want to take part, you will need to be a Yubit user through my link.
The challenge will be free to join, but you will need a Yubit user ID and there will be a minimum trading volume requirement to participate.
I am going to be doing this with a $10,000 account, and if I am going to spend my time helping the community trade this properly, then the fair exchange is simple: use the link.
If you deposit $10,000 through my link, you can also receive a $2,000 trading bonus with no expiry, which gives you extra capital to use during the challenge.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=VIP2 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
❤9
TO JOIN THE NEXT $10K TO $1M TRADING CHALLENGE
USE THIS LINK, FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
USE THIS LINK, FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
t.me/ThatMartiniGuyYUBITBot
👍4❤3
I MIGHT CLOSE MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT IF THIS CHART PLAYS OUT
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/vHVY_Wmw_no
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/vHVY_Wmw_no
YouTube
I MIGHT CLOSE MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT IF THIS CHART PLAYS OUT
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | $8.9M CRYPTO SHORT | BITCOIN MARKET UPDATE
Bitcoin is pumping back to the upside, and today’s video breaks down whether I should add to my short positions at higher prices or close everything and secure profits.…
Bitcoin is pumping back to the upside, and today’s video breaks down whether I should add to my short positions at higher prices or close everything and secure profits.…
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