We might be on the way to close the CME Gap as i have mentioned
That could be painful if i stay in
Its nearly decision time
That could be painful if i stay in
Its nearly decision time
❤8👍8👀5🤔2👎1
Starting this morning’s analysis, Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,880, give or take.
The position is still sitting roughly $500,000 in open profit, and we have already locked in around $272,000 in realised profit. So even if price pushes back to the upside from here, we are already in a very strong position on the trade.
That said, I do see a few things on the chart this morning that suggest today could become more bullish, at least in the short term.
So the decision now becomes interesting.
Is this the best time to cash out the trade and step aside for the next few days?
Or is the entry good enough that we hold through the next short squeeze and treat this as a longer-term position?
That is the dilemma.
The trade is already very profitable, and there is a sensible argument for banking it. But the entry is also extremely strong. If Bitcoin does continue breaking down after any short-term bounce, this could become a much larger position worth significantly more money.
So today is about being patient, reading the data properly, and not making an emotional decision just because the P&L is moving around aggressively.
The position is still sitting roughly $500,000 in open profit, and we have already locked in around $272,000 in realised profit. So even if price pushes back to the upside from here, we are already in a very strong position on the trade.
That said, I do see a few things on the chart this morning that suggest today could become more bullish, at least in the short term.
So the decision now becomes interesting.
Is this the best time to cash out the trade and step aside for the next few days?
Or is the entry good enough that we hold through the next short squeeze and treat this as a longer-term position?
That is the dilemma.
The trade is already very profitable, and there is a sensible argument for banking it. But the entry is also extremely strong. If Bitcoin does continue breaking down after any short-term bounce, this could become a much larger position worth significantly more money.
So today is about being patient, reading the data properly, and not making an emotional decision just because the P&L is moving around aggressively.
👍9❤5
BITCOIN SPOT ETF FLOW UPDATE
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Starting with the Bitcoin spot ETF net flows.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of around 8,380 BTC, which is roughly $648 million leaving the ETFs.
Across the full ETF market, that is close to a billion dollars in withdrawals, bringing total net assets down to around $106.95 billion.
That is a significant sell-off across the board, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing the largest outflow on the day.
Looking at the total Bitcoin spot ETF net flow chart in USD, these are aggressive exits. The important thing to understand is that large ETF outflow days often attract more outflows afterwards.
It does not always happen in one straight line. You usually do not get huge outflow days stacked perfectly back-to-back. More commonly, you see a little money come in, then a lot go out. Then a little comes in again, then another large outflow follows.
That is why we can probably expect more of the same while this trend continues.
Right now, ETF flows are in a clear downtrend. That makes me less interested in closing the overall short position too early.
But if I was opening a fresh trade today, I would probably be looking for a short-term long.
And I have done that on a separate account.
I am currently lightly long on Ethereum and one other small position, but with nowhere near the same size. This is just a smaller test position to see if the short-term bounce theory is correct.
I’ll attach a screenshot of that as well. It is just on Bybit, with a small amount of money that I use now and again to test ideas and see if I can turn it into something larger.
Even though I have large accounts, I still like playing around with small accounts.
For me, the best part of trading is not just the money. It is being correct.
That is what this group is about.
It is not about ego. It is not about being permanently bullish or permanently bearish.
It is about reading the data, following the money, changing your mind when the facts change, and trying to be correct.
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Starting with the Bitcoin spot ETF net flows.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of around 8,380 BTC, which is roughly $648 million leaving the ETFs.
Across the full ETF market, that is close to a billion dollars in withdrawals, bringing total net assets down to around $106.95 billion.
That is a significant sell-off across the board, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing the largest outflow on the day.
Looking at the total Bitcoin spot ETF net flow chart in USD, these are aggressive exits. The important thing to understand is that large ETF outflow days often attract more outflows afterwards.
It does not always happen in one straight line. You usually do not get huge outflow days stacked perfectly back-to-back. More commonly, you see a little money come in, then a lot go out. Then a little comes in again, then another large outflow follows.
That is why we can probably expect more of the same while this trend continues.
Right now, ETF flows are in a clear downtrend. That makes me less interested in closing the overall short position too early.
But if I was opening a fresh trade today, I would probably be looking for a short-term long.
And I have done that on a separate account.
I am currently lightly long on Ethereum and one other small position, but with nowhere near the same size. This is just a smaller test position to see if the short-term bounce theory is correct.
I’ll attach a screenshot of that as well. It is just on Bybit, with a small amount of money that I use now and again to test ideas and see if I can turn it into something larger.
Even though I have large accounts, I still like playing around with small accounts.
For me, the best part of trading is not just the money. It is being correct.
That is what this group is about.
It is not about ego. It is not about being permanently bullish or permanently bearish.
It is about reading the data, following the money, changing your mind when the facts change, and trying to be correct.
👍8👏4
SHORT-TERM BULLISH CASE
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Something bullish worth considering right now is that spot volumes are rising almost as much as futures volumes over the past 24 hours.
This is across the entire crypto market, not just Bitcoin.
Bitcoin spot volume is currently up around 92.33% versus Bitcoin futures volume, which suggests that, today, people actually are buying the dip.
That matters because Bitcoin is still trading low inside the range. There is definitely room for price to move higher from here.
The key level I’m watching is $77,122.
If Bitcoin trades above $77,122 today, I think there is a strong chance price quickly pushes back towards around $78,330.
That would be the major failure point for the short trade, and it would likely be the level where I close the position.
If that happens, the trade would still be very profitable. We would probably be looking at around $600,000 total profit instead of roughly $800,000.
So it is not a disaster either way.
For now, I still feel confident that I am correct on the overall trend. I still think the broader move is bearish.
But short term, today does look like it has the potential to be an upside day.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Something bullish worth considering right now is that spot volumes are rising almost as much as futures volumes over the past 24 hours.
This is across the entire crypto market, not just Bitcoin.
Bitcoin spot volume is currently up around 92.33% versus Bitcoin futures volume, which suggests that, today, people actually are buying the dip.
That matters because Bitcoin is still trading low inside the range. There is definitely room for price to move higher from here.
The key level I’m watching is $77,122.
If Bitcoin trades above $77,122 today, I think there is a strong chance price quickly pushes back towards around $78,330.
That would be the major failure point for the short trade, and it would likely be the level where I close the position.
If that happens, the trade would still be very profitable. We would probably be looking at around $600,000 total profit instead of roughly $800,000.
So it is not a disaster either way.
For now, I still feel confident that I am correct on the overall trend. I still think the broader move is bearish.
But short term, today does look like it has the potential to be an upside day.
❤18
FUTURES VS SPOT: WHY THIS GETS INTERESTING
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This is where things get really interesting.
Futures taker buy volume is currently higher than futures taker sell volume. But during that same 24-hour period, Bitcoin price has still been negative.
That tells us something important.
The futures market is starting to lean more bullish in the short term, while spot selling is still continuing in the background.
So we have two different things happening at the same time:
Futures traders are stepping in with more aggressive buy-side activity.
Spot sellers are still applying pressure to the market.
That makes the current structure very interesting.
A lot of the spot selling appears to be coming through the ETF side, while futures positioning looks more like traders and institutions preparing for a short-term bounce.
When we look at the spot volume chart, we are also starting to see thicker, more solid volume bars around these levels. That can indicate some accumulation starting to happen here.
You can also see it in the broader volume distribution. Futures volume is growing faster, while spot volume is starting to move back towards around 7% of the total Bitcoin volume distribution between futures and spot.
When you combine all of these things together, the short-term picture is actually starting to look bullish.
It is hard to ignore.
The problem is that the overarching trend is still bearish, and the entry on the main short position is very good.
In theory, the smarter play may be to hold the larger short through the volatility and let the bigger move play out. If the trend continues, Bitcoin can still make its way down towards the $70,000 region.
It just might take all week.
In the meantime, there may be opportunities to play the upside with smaller short-term trades while still keeping the main position open.
That is the balance I’m trying to manage here.
The bigger trend still looks bearish, but the short-term data is starting to support a bounce.
Press the like button on this post if you want me to start a new $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This is where things get really interesting.
Futures taker buy volume is currently higher than futures taker sell volume. But during that same 24-hour period, Bitcoin price has still been negative.
That tells us something important.
The futures market is starting to lean more bullish in the short term, while spot selling is still continuing in the background.
So we have two different things happening at the same time:
Futures traders are stepping in with more aggressive buy-side activity.
Spot sellers are still applying pressure to the market.
That makes the current structure very interesting.
A lot of the spot selling appears to be coming through the ETF side, while futures positioning looks more like traders and institutions preparing for a short-term bounce.
When we look at the spot volume chart, we are also starting to see thicker, more solid volume bars around these levels. That can indicate some accumulation starting to happen here.
You can also see it in the broader volume distribution. Futures volume is growing faster, while spot volume is starting to move back towards around 7% of the total Bitcoin volume distribution between futures and spot.
When you combine all of these things together, the short-term picture is actually starting to look bullish.
It is hard to ignore.
The problem is that the overarching trend is still bearish, and the entry on the main short position is very good.
In theory, the smarter play may be to hold the larger short through the volatility and let the bigger move play out. If the trend continues, Bitcoin can still make its way down towards the $70,000 region.
It just might take all week.
In the meantime, there may be opportunities to play the upside with smaller short-term trades while still keeping the main position open.
That is the balance I’m trying to manage here.
The bigger trend still looks bearish, but the short-term data is starting to support a bounce.
Press the like button on this post if you want me to start a new $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge.
👍39❤4👏1
Just for perspective i follow my own trades on all my accounts with whatever they have in them
There is no excuse to not maximise opportunities when they are higher probability setups
This is why thje $10k to $1m challenge stuff can be fun, i just turned 4k into 18k so now i can take 8k and run a free to play 10k to 1m challenge
There is no excuse to not maximise opportunities when they are higher probability setups
This is why thje $10k to $1m challenge stuff can be fun, i just turned 4k into 18k so now i can take 8k and run a free to play 10k to 1m challenge
❤14
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This one is arguably a lot more impressive $200 into 20k following the exact same trades i placed in here
Its all just max borrowing at the exact right timing
Its all just max borrowing at the exact right timing
❤6👍6🔥4
HOW I TRADE: BIG ACCOUNT, SMALL ACCOUNT, SAME OBJECTIVE
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To explain a little more about me and the way I trade, I use multiple exchanges and multiple accounts.
Sometimes I even trade against myself, although I try not to do that too often because there is not always a huge upside in it. But if I have a large position open and I think the market may temporarily move against it, I may hedge on a separate exchange rather than closing the main trade too early.
That is just how I manage risk.
Generally, I have one main account with serious capital in it, and then I have smaller accounts where I can take higher-risk trades.
The main account is for the higher-conviction, more structured positions.
The smaller accounts are where I can take more aggressive trades, use higher leverage, and test ideas without putting the main account at unnecessary risk.
That setup works for me because I know myself.
When I believe in a trade, I believe in it properly. I like taking risk. I like pushing size. That is why, this time around, I am trading with a $2 million account. It gives me enough capital to build the kind of position size that satisfies my appetite for risk, while still allowing me to manage the trade properly.
Then, if I want to take more aggressive high-leverage trades, I do that with smaller accounts.
If one of those smaller trades gets liquidated, I treat it almost like a stop loss or a hedge cost against the larger overall idea.
That may not make sense to everybody, but I have been doing this for nearly 13 or 14 years now, and I have found a system that works for me.
I love risk.
I have been rewarded in life for taking risk. The people I have seen stay stagnant are usually the people who were too scared to take any.
The people who prioritise a safe monthly income above the opportunity to build something much larger often end up being gapped over time by people who are willing to take calculated risk.
Now, to be clear, not everybody who takes risk wins.
A lot of people take risk, learn nothing, blow up, and never improve.
That is not what this group is about.
What I am trying to teach here is how to take risk intelligently. How to read the market. How to follow the money. How to understand when to press, when to hedge, when to close, and when to let a trade breathe.
This group is not about ego.
It is not about being bullish or bearish forever.
It is about being correct.
And if you are trading this market seriously, my suggestion is that you check out Yubit and consider using it as your main exchange.
Yubit is currently running an offer where, if you deposit $10,000 through my link, you can receive a $2,000 trading bonus with no expiry.
That gives you extra capital to trade with, and it fits perfectly with what we are about to do next.
We are going to start a $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge, so that extra $2,000 bonus could be very useful.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
To explain a little more about me and the way I trade, I use multiple exchanges and multiple accounts.
Sometimes I even trade against myself, although I try not to do that too often because there is not always a huge upside in it. But if I have a large position open and I think the market may temporarily move against it, I may hedge on a separate exchange rather than closing the main trade too early.
That is just how I manage risk.
Generally, I have one main account with serious capital in it, and then I have smaller accounts where I can take higher-risk trades.
The main account is for the higher-conviction, more structured positions.
The smaller accounts are where I can take more aggressive trades, use higher leverage, and test ideas without putting the main account at unnecessary risk.
That setup works for me because I know myself.
When I believe in a trade, I believe in it properly. I like taking risk. I like pushing size. That is why, this time around, I am trading with a $2 million account. It gives me enough capital to build the kind of position size that satisfies my appetite for risk, while still allowing me to manage the trade properly.
Then, if I want to take more aggressive high-leverage trades, I do that with smaller accounts.
If one of those smaller trades gets liquidated, I treat it almost like a stop loss or a hedge cost against the larger overall idea.
That may not make sense to everybody, but I have been doing this for nearly 13 or 14 years now, and I have found a system that works for me.
I love risk.
I have been rewarded in life for taking risk. The people I have seen stay stagnant are usually the people who were too scared to take any.
The people who prioritise a safe monthly income above the opportunity to build something much larger often end up being gapped over time by people who are willing to take calculated risk.
Now, to be clear, not everybody who takes risk wins.
A lot of people take risk, learn nothing, blow up, and never improve.
That is not what this group is about.
What I am trying to teach here is how to take risk intelligently. How to read the market. How to follow the money. How to understand when to press, when to hedge, when to close, and when to let a trade breathe.
This group is not about ego.
It is not about being bullish or bearish forever.
It is about being correct.
And if you are trading this market seriously, my suggestion is that you check out Yubit and consider using it as your main exchange.
Yubit is currently running an offer where, if you deposit $10,000 through my link, you can receive a $2,000 trading bonus with no expiry.
That gives you extra capital to trade with, and it fits perfectly with what we are about to do next.
We are going to start a $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge, so that extra $2,000 bonus could be very useful.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
Yubit
YUBIT: Secure Cryptocurrency Exchange to Buy & Sell Bitcoin, Ethereum & Altcoins
Trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and top cryptocurrencies safely on YUBIT — a trusted crypto exchange with low fees, fast transactions, and advanced trading tools. Start trading in minutes.
👍13❤2🔥2
BITCOIN 48-HOUR LIQUIDATION HEAT MAP
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Now we need to talk about the Bitcoin liquidation heat map on the 48-hour chart.
On this heat map, we can see liquidity sitting both above and below the current price. Despite Bitcoin pushing back up, we have not really taken out any major liquidation ranges yet.
The first key upside range starts around $77,400.
If Bitcoin breaks through that level, it likely opens the door for a move back towards $78,000. And if Bitcoin gets back above $78,000, then the CME gap probably becomes the obvious target.
So the short-term upside risk is very real.
The other important thing to point out is that, right now, Bitcoin is still making a higher low. Across this structure, we have continued to make higher lows, and that means the bearish case, although it looks obvious in some areas of the data, is not guaranteed.
The key downside level for me is $75,000.
If Bitcoin loses $75,000, then I think the game changes completely. At that point, the structure breaks, the trade opens up, and the market can crash properly.
But for as long as Bitcoin continues holding above $75,000, you have to respect the bullish argument.
That is where the difficulty is right now.
The long-term trend still looks bearish.
The mid-term trend is still holding up.
The short-term trend today is bullish.
But over the past few days, the market has been bearish.
So we have multiple timeframes giving different signals at the same time. That is why this market has to be traded dynamically.
The main short position still makes sense if the larger bearish structure plays out, but there are also opportunities to take smaller short-term trades inside the range.
That is the balance right now: protect the big position, but stay flexible enough to trade the short-term moves when the data supports them.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Now we need to talk about the Bitcoin liquidation heat map on the 48-hour chart.
On this heat map, we can see liquidity sitting both above and below the current price. Despite Bitcoin pushing back up, we have not really taken out any major liquidation ranges yet.
The first key upside range starts around $77,400.
If Bitcoin breaks through that level, it likely opens the door for a move back towards $78,000. And if Bitcoin gets back above $78,000, then the CME gap probably becomes the obvious target.
So the short-term upside risk is very real.
The other important thing to point out is that, right now, Bitcoin is still making a higher low. Across this structure, we have continued to make higher lows, and that means the bearish case, although it looks obvious in some areas of the data, is not guaranteed.
The key downside level for me is $75,000.
If Bitcoin loses $75,000, then I think the game changes completely. At that point, the structure breaks, the trade opens up, and the market can crash properly.
But for as long as Bitcoin continues holding above $75,000, you have to respect the bullish argument.
That is where the difficulty is right now.
The long-term trend still looks bearish.
The mid-term trend is still holding up.
The short-term trend today is bullish.
But over the past few days, the market has been bearish.
So we have multiple timeframes giving different signals at the same time. That is why this market has to be traded dynamically.
The main short position still makes sense if the larger bearish structure plays out, but there are also opportunities to take smaller short-term trades inside the range.
That is the balance right now: protect the big position, but stay flexible enough to trade the short-term moves when the data supports them.
❤10
Forwarded from TMG CHAT
BITCOIN OPEN INTEREST: WHY THIS CHANGES THE READ
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This is where the picture changes when we look at Bitcoin open interest.
Bitcoin open interest has been in a continued decline, which is important. Even though both futures volume and spot volume have increased over the past 24 hours, the amount of committed leverage in the market is not really expanding in the same way.
That matters.
Over the past few hours, Bitcoin has moved from around $76,492 to $77,104.
During that same period, open interest has only increased from around $29.08 billion to $29.2 billion, which is roughly $120 million in new open interest.
For Bitcoin, that is not a huge increase relative to the size of the price move.
So price has moved up proportionally more than open interest has expanded. That suggests Bitcoin may be trading slightly above where the current positioning supports it, which means this area could be vulnerable to rejection.
That is why the next thing we need to look at is the shorter-term long-versus-short data.
Over the past hour or so, short volume has started coming in near the top of the range. That is important because it suggests sellers are beginning to step in exactly where Bitcoin is trying to break higher.
If that selling pressure is strong enough, it could suppress the price and stop the breakout from developing.
In that case, both sides of the plan still make sense.
The short-term short position would be correct because Bitcoin rejects from the top of the range.
And the larger-term short position would still be correct because the broader structure remains bearish.
So this is the key point:
Bitcoin has bounced, but open interest has not expanded enough to fully validate the move yet. If shorts keep stepping in at the top of the range, this rally could get capped before it turns into a real breakout.
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This is where the picture changes when we look at Bitcoin open interest.
Bitcoin open interest has been in a continued decline, which is important. Even though both futures volume and spot volume have increased over the past 24 hours, the amount of committed leverage in the market is not really expanding in the same way.
That matters.
Over the past few hours, Bitcoin has moved from around $76,492 to $77,104.
During that same period, open interest has only increased from around $29.08 billion to $29.2 billion, which is roughly $120 million in new open interest.
For Bitcoin, that is not a huge increase relative to the size of the price move.
So price has moved up proportionally more than open interest has expanded. That suggests Bitcoin may be trading slightly above where the current positioning supports it, which means this area could be vulnerable to rejection.
That is why the next thing we need to look at is the shorter-term long-versus-short data.
Over the past hour or so, short volume has started coming in near the top of the range. That is important because it suggests sellers are beginning to step in exactly where Bitcoin is trying to break higher.
If that selling pressure is strong enough, it could suppress the price and stop the breakout from developing.
In that case, both sides of the plan still make sense.
The short-term short position would be correct because Bitcoin rejects from the top of the range.
And the larger-term short position would still be correct because the broader structure remains bearish.
So this is the key point:
Bitcoin has bounced, but open interest has not expanded enough to fully validate the move yet. If shorts keep stepping in at the top of the range, this rally could get capped before it turns into a real breakout.
❤5👍5