I NEARLY CLOSED MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT THEN I SAW THIS CHART
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/5ePa-kVE80U
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/5ePa-kVE80U
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I NEARLY CLOSED MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT THEN I SAW THIS CHART
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | $8.9M CRYPTO SHORT | BITCOIN MARKET UPDATE
Bitcoin is at a critical level, and today’s video breaks down why there is currently a 50/50 chance of Bitcoin moving higher or lower from here. While parts of the technical…
Bitcoin is at a critical level, and today’s video breaks down why there is currently a 50/50 chance of Bitcoin moving higher or lower from here. While parts of the technical…
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Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,780.
On the lower timeframes, we are seeing a small bounce, but for now the key thing is the reaction around these levels:
Resistance: $77,000
Major resistance: $77,600
Support: $76,620 / $76,500 area
If Bitcoin breaks below $76,500, I think there is a strong chance we see a sharp move lower, potentially a liquidation candle to grab the liquidity sitting underneath.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin can reclaim $77,000 and then push through $77,600, the probability of a move towards $79,000 increases, especially with the CME gap still sitting above.
So for now, this is the range I’m watching closely. The market is sitting at a decision point.
On the lower timeframes, we are seeing a small bounce, but for now the key thing is the reaction around these levels:
Resistance: $77,000
Major resistance: $77,600
Support: $76,620 / $76,500 area
If Bitcoin breaks below $76,500, I think there is a strong chance we see a sharp move lower, potentially a liquidation candle to grab the liquidity sitting underneath.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin can reclaim $77,000 and then push through $77,600, the probability of a move towards $79,000 increases, especially with the CME gap still sitting above.
So for now, this is the range I’m watching closely. The market is sitting at a decision point.
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We might be on the way to close the CME Gap as i have mentioned
That could be painful if i stay in
Its nearly decision time
That could be painful if i stay in
Its nearly decision time
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Starting this morning’s analysis, Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,880, give or take.
The position is still sitting roughly $500,000 in open profit, and we have already locked in around $272,000 in realised profit. So even if price pushes back to the upside from here, we are already in a very strong position on the trade.
That said, I do see a few things on the chart this morning that suggest today could become more bullish, at least in the short term.
So the decision now becomes interesting.
Is this the best time to cash out the trade and step aside for the next few days?
Or is the entry good enough that we hold through the next short squeeze and treat this as a longer-term position?
That is the dilemma.
The trade is already very profitable, and there is a sensible argument for banking it. But the entry is also extremely strong. If Bitcoin does continue breaking down after any short-term bounce, this could become a much larger position worth significantly more money.
So today is about being patient, reading the data properly, and not making an emotional decision just because the P&L is moving around aggressively.
The position is still sitting roughly $500,000 in open profit, and we have already locked in around $272,000 in realised profit. So even if price pushes back to the upside from here, we are already in a very strong position on the trade.
That said, I do see a few things on the chart this morning that suggest today could become more bullish, at least in the short term.
So the decision now becomes interesting.
Is this the best time to cash out the trade and step aside for the next few days?
Or is the entry good enough that we hold through the next short squeeze and treat this as a longer-term position?
That is the dilemma.
The trade is already very profitable, and there is a sensible argument for banking it. But the entry is also extremely strong. If Bitcoin does continue breaking down after any short-term bounce, this could become a much larger position worth significantly more money.
So today is about being patient, reading the data properly, and not making an emotional decision just because the P&L is moving around aggressively.
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BITCOIN SPOT ETF FLOW UPDATE
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Starting with the Bitcoin spot ETF net flows.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of around 8,380 BTC, which is roughly $648 million leaving the ETFs.
Across the full ETF market, that is close to a billion dollars in withdrawals, bringing total net assets down to around $106.95 billion.
That is a significant sell-off across the board, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing the largest outflow on the day.
Looking at the total Bitcoin spot ETF net flow chart in USD, these are aggressive exits. The important thing to understand is that large ETF outflow days often attract more outflows afterwards.
It does not always happen in one straight line. You usually do not get huge outflow days stacked perfectly back-to-back. More commonly, you see a little money come in, then a lot go out. Then a little comes in again, then another large outflow follows.
That is why we can probably expect more of the same while this trend continues.
Right now, ETF flows are in a clear downtrend. That makes me less interested in closing the overall short position too early.
But if I was opening a fresh trade today, I would probably be looking for a short-term long.
And I have done that on a separate account.
I am currently lightly long on Ethereum and one other small position, but with nowhere near the same size. This is just a smaller test position to see if the short-term bounce theory is correct.
I’ll attach a screenshot of that as well. It is just on Bybit, with a small amount of money that I use now and again to test ideas and see if I can turn it into something larger.
Even though I have large accounts, I still like playing around with small accounts.
For me, the best part of trading is not just the money. It is being correct.
That is what this group is about.
It is not about ego. It is not about being permanently bullish or permanently bearish.
It is about reading the data, following the money, changing your mind when the facts change, and trying to be correct.
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Starting with the Bitcoin spot ETF net flows.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of around 8,380 BTC, which is roughly $648 million leaving the ETFs.
Across the full ETF market, that is close to a billion dollars in withdrawals, bringing total net assets down to around $106.95 billion.
That is a significant sell-off across the board, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing the largest outflow on the day.
Looking at the total Bitcoin spot ETF net flow chart in USD, these are aggressive exits. The important thing to understand is that large ETF outflow days often attract more outflows afterwards.
It does not always happen in one straight line. You usually do not get huge outflow days stacked perfectly back-to-back. More commonly, you see a little money come in, then a lot go out. Then a little comes in again, then another large outflow follows.
That is why we can probably expect more of the same while this trend continues.
Right now, ETF flows are in a clear downtrend. That makes me less interested in closing the overall short position too early.
But if I was opening a fresh trade today, I would probably be looking for a short-term long.
And I have done that on a separate account.
I am currently lightly long on Ethereum and one other small position, but with nowhere near the same size. This is just a smaller test position to see if the short-term bounce theory is correct.
I’ll attach a screenshot of that as well. It is just on Bybit, with a small amount of money that I use now and again to test ideas and see if I can turn it into something larger.
Even though I have large accounts, I still like playing around with small accounts.
For me, the best part of trading is not just the money. It is being correct.
That is what this group is about.
It is not about ego. It is not about being permanently bullish or permanently bearish.
It is about reading the data, following the money, changing your mind when the facts change, and trying to be correct.
👍8👏4
SHORT-TERM BULLISH CASE
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Something bullish worth considering right now is that spot volumes are rising almost as much as futures volumes over the past 24 hours.
This is across the entire crypto market, not just Bitcoin.
Bitcoin spot volume is currently up around 92.33% versus Bitcoin futures volume, which suggests that, today, people actually are buying the dip.
That matters because Bitcoin is still trading low inside the range. There is definitely room for price to move higher from here.
The key level I’m watching is $77,122.
If Bitcoin trades above $77,122 today, I think there is a strong chance price quickly pushes back towards around $78,330.
That would be the major failure point for the short trade, and it would likely be the level where I close the position.
If that happens, the trade would still be very profitable. We would probably be looking at around $600,000 total profit instead of roughly $800,000.
So it is not a disaster either way.
For now, I still feel confident that I am correct on the overall trend. I still think the broader move is bearish.
But short term, today does look like it has the potential to be an upside day.
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Something bullish worth considering right now is that spot volumes are rising almost as much as futures volumes over the past 24 hours.
This is across the entire crypto market, not just Bitcoin.
Bitcoin spot volume is currently up around 92.33% versus Bitcoin futures volume, which suggests that, today, people actually are buying the dip.
That matters because Bitcoin is still trading low inside the range. There is definitely room for price to move higher from here.
The key level I’m watching is $77,122.
If Bitcoin trades above $77,122 today, I think there is a strong chance price quickly pushes back towards around $78,330.
That would be the major failure point for the short trade, and it would likely be the level where I close the position.
If that happens, the trade would still be very profitable. We would probably be looking at around $600,000 total profit instead of roughly $800,000.
So it is not a disaster either way.
For now, I still feel confident that I am correct on the overall trend. I still think the broader move is bearish.
But short term, today does look like it has the potential to be an upside day.
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FUTURES VS SPOT: WHY THIS GETS INTERESTING
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This is where things get really interesting.
Futures taker buy volume is currently higher than futures taker sell volume. But during that same 24-hour period, Bitcoin price has still been negative.
That tells us something important.
The futures market is starting to lean more bullish in the short term, while spot selling is still continuing in the background.
So we have two different things happening at the same time:
Futures traders are stepping in with more aggressive buy-side activity.
Spot sellers are still applying pressure to the market.
That makes the current structure very interesting.
A lot of the spot selling appears to be coming through the ETF side, while futures positioning looks more like traders and institutions preparing for a short-term bounce.
When we look at the spot volume chart, we are also starting to see thicker, more solid volume bars around these levels. That can indicate some accumulation starting to happen here.
You can also see it in the broader volume distribution. Futures volume is growing faster, while spot volume is starting to move back towards around 7% of the total Bitcoin volume distribution between futures and spot.
When you combine all of these things together, the short-term picture is actually starting to look bullish.
It is hard to ignore.
The problem is that the overarching trend is still bearish, and the entry on the main short position is very good.
In theory, the smarter play may be to hold the larger short through the volatility and let the bigger move play out. If the trend continues, Bitcoin can still make its way down towards the $70,000 region.
It just might take all week.
In the meantime, there may be opportunities to play the upside with smaller short-term trades while still keeping the main position open.
That is the balance I’m trying to manage here.
The bigger trend still looks bearish, but the short-term data is starting to support a bounce.
Press the like button on this post if you want me to start a new $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge.
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This is where things get really interesting.
Futures taker buy volume is currently higher than futures taker sell volume. But during that same 24-hour period, Bitcoin price has still been negative.
That tells us something important.
The futures market is starting to lean more bullish in the short term, while spot selling is still continuing in the background.
So we have two different things happening at the same time:
Futures traders are stepping in with more aggressive buy-side activity.
Spot sellers are still applying pressure to the market.
That makes the current structure very interesting.
A lot of the spot selling appears to be coming through the ETF side, while futures positioning looks more like traders and institutions preparing for a short-term bounce.
When we look at the spot volume chart, we are also starting to see thicker, more solid volume bars around these levels. That can indicate some accumulation starting to happen here.
You can also see it in the broader volume distribution. Futures volume is growing faster, while spot volume is starting to move back towards around 7% of the total Bitcoin volume distribution between futures and spot.
When you combine all of these things together, the short-term picture is actually starting to look bullish.
It is hard to ignore.
The problem is that the overarching trend is still bearish, and the entry on the main short position is very good.
In theory, the smarter play may be to hold the larger short through the volatility and let the bigger move play out. If the trend continues, Bitcoin can still make its way down towards the $70,000 region.
It just might take all week.
In the meantime, there may be opportunities to play the upside with smaller short-term trades while still keeping the main position open.
That is the balance I’m trying to manage here.
The bigger trend still looks bearish, but the short-term data is starting to support a bounce.
Press the like button on this post if you want me to start a new $10,000 to $1,000,000 trading challenge.
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Just for perspective i follow my own trades on all my accounts with whatever they have in them
There is no excuse to not maximise opportunities when they are higher probability setups
This is why thje $10k to $1m challenge stuff can be fun, i just turned 4k into 18k so now i can take 8k and run a free to play 10k to 1m challenge
There is no excuse to not maximise opportunities when they are higher probability setups
This is why thje $10k to $1m challenge stuff can be fun, i just turned 4k into 18k so now i can take 8k and run a free to play 10k to 1m challenge
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This one is arguably a lot more impressive $200 into 20k following the exact same trades i placed in here
Its all just max borrowing at the exact right timing
Its all just max borrowing at the exact right timing
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