Now the market starts to look a bit more interesting when we move over to Ethereum.
For most of the past week, Ethereum open interest was rising while price was falling.
That was the clean signal we were reading before. Rising open interest with falling price usually suggests fresh short positions entering the market and applying downside pressure.
But yesterday, that changed.
Ethereum open interest dropped sharply from around $13.14 billion down to roughly $12.1 billion. That is around a $1 billion reduction in open interest.
Even now, Ethereum open interest is only sitting around $12.46 billion.
So the question we have to ask is this:
Is Ethereum now underpricing itself?
Is the market giving us a decent entry opportunity here?
Because it does look different now.
This is not the same trend we were seeing earlier in the week, where open interest kept rising while price kept falling. That was much easier to read as short positioning building into the market.
This move looks more like a major position has been flushed out.
To me, it still looks like a lot of those short positions opened earlier in the week may still be active. But the big drop in open interest suggests somebody has exited the market in size.
The key question is whether that was longs capitulating, shorts taking profit, or a mix of both.
Given the way price behaved during the move, this looks more like long-side capitulation than a clean bullish reset.
So now we have to work out whether Ethereum longs still have more room to capitulate, or whether that flush has already happened and the market is starting to underprice ETH.
To answer that properly, we need to move over to the Ethereum liquidation heat map.
For most of the past week, Ethereum open interest was rising while price was falling.
That was the clean signal we were reading before. Rising open interest with falling price usually suggests fresh short positions entering the market and applying downside pressure.
But yesterday, that changed.
Ethereum open interest dropped sharply from around $13.14 billion down to roughly $12.1 billion. That is around a $1 billion reduction in open interest.
Even now, Ethereum open interest is only sitting around $12.46 billion.
So the question we have to ask is this:
Is Ethereum now underpricing itself?
Is the market giving us a decent entry opportunity here?
Because it does look different now.
This is not the same trend we were seeing earlier in the week, where open interest kept rising while price kept falling. That was much easier to read as short positioning building into the market.
This move looks more like a major position has been flushed out.
To me, it still looks like a lot of those short positions opened earlier in the week may still be active. But the big drop in open interest suggests somebody has exited the market in size.
The key question is whether that was longs capitulating, shorts taking profit, or a mix of both.
Given the way price behaved during the move, this looks more like long-side capitulation than a clean bullish reset.
So now we have to work out whether Ethereum longs still have more room to capitulate, or whether that flush has already happened and the market is starting to underprice ETH.
To answer that properly, we need to move over to the Ethereum liquidation heat map.
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I’ve attached the 48-hour, 1-month, and 6-month Ethereum liquidation heat maps, and this is where the market starts giving mixed signals.
On the 48-hour Ethereum heat map, there is liquidity on both sides of price, but ETH is currently hugging the upper liquidity zone. If we were plotting VWAP across this structure, we would likely be near the upper red band, and when price hugs that area, it can often hold there before pushing higher.
So short term, that is not ideal for the short.
But the higher timeframe heat maps tell a different story.
On the 1-month Ethereum liquidation heat map, price keeps bouncing into liquidity, and there are still major liquidation zones sitting below. The $1,800 area in particular has a huge amount of liquidity, which is hard to ignore.
Then on the 6-month Ethereum heat map, the downside liquidity is even more significant. There is a massive amount of untapped liquidity beneath the market.
So with Ethereum, the question is simple:
Do we bounce first because the short-term heat map is pushing into upside liquidity, or do we continue lower because the higher timeframe downside liquidity is too attractive?
That is the Ethereum side.
Now bringing it back to Bitcoin, this matters because Bitcoin has already lost support around $78,000, while we still have the CME gap risk above.
My original theory was that we may leave the CME gap open and continue lower. That is still possible.
But this is Bitcoin. It often comes back up, retests broken support, and makes the trade uncomfortable before choosing the real direction, especially on a Monday morning.
So the decision is not simple.
Ethereum’s short-term heat map suggests a bounce is possible, but the higher timeframe Ethereum heat maps still show major downside liquidity. At the same time, Bitcoin has lost an important support level.
That is why I’m not rushing the decision.
The market is mixed, but the larger liquidity picture still gives me a reason to stay cautious on the upside and not assume the bounce is guaranteed.
On the 48-hour Ethereum heat map, there is liquidity on both sides of price, but ETH is currently hugging the upper liquidity zone. If we were plotting VWAP across this structure, we would likely be near the upper red band, and when price hugs that area, it can often hold there before pushing higher.
So short term, that is not ideal for the short.
But the higher timeframe heat maps tell a different story.
On the 1-month Ethereum liquidation heat map, price keeps bouncing into liquidity, and there are still major liquidation zones sitting below. The $1,800 area in particular has a huge amount of liquidity, which is hard to ignore.
Then on the 6-month Ethereum heat map, the downside liquidity is even more significant. There is a massive amount of untapped liquidity beneath the market.
So with Ethereum, the question is simple:
Do we bounce first because the short-term heat map is pushing into upside liquidity, or do we continue lower because the higher timeframe downside liquidity is too attractive?
That is the Ethereum side.
Now bringing it back to Bitcoin, this matters because Bitcoin has already lost support around $78,000, while we still have the CME gap risk above.
My original theory was that we may leave the CME gap open and continue lower. That is still possible.
But this is Bitcoin. It often comes back up, retests broken support, and makes the trade uncomfortable before choosing the real direction, especially on a Monday morning.
So the decision is not simple.
Ethereum’s short-term heat map suggests a bounce is possible, but the higher timeframe Ethereum heat maps still show major downside liquidity. At the same time, Bitcoin has lost an important support level.
That is why I’m not rushing the decision.
The market is mixed, but the larger liquidity picture still gives me a reason to stay cautious on the upside and not assume the bounce is guaranteed.
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Finally, this is where things get really interesting: Ethereum spot volume.
Over the past 30 days, Ethereum spot volume has made up only around 5.26% of the futures market.
That is extremely low.
Spot volume has continued declining throughout this entire move, and the last time we saw a big spike in volume after a sharp move down, followed by volume declining again afterwards, price continued lower.
Follow the money.
If the same structure plays out again, then $1,800 and potentially below becomes the obvious Ethereum target.
No one really wants to hear that, but that is the brutal reality of the market right now.
Now, here is where it gets even more interesting.
Ethereum spot volume is up 31.35% over the past 24 hours, sitting around $1.91 billion. That is not terribly far away from Bitcoin’s $3.3 billion in spot volume over the same period.
So the question is:
Why is Ethereum spot volume rising so aggressively compared to futures volume, while still only making up roughly 5% of Ethereum’s overall market volume?
To me, the answer is simple.
It looks like people are getting out before something bad happens.
This is not clean accumulation. This does not look like aggressive spot buyers stepping in and defending the market.
It looks like exit volume.
We also have wider risk-off signals building in traditional markets. The Gates Foundation Trust has exited its remaining Microsoft position, and there are fresh stress signals around hedge funds and liquidity across the market.
That does not automatically mean everything crashes, but it does add to the overall picture that markets may be getting worse, not better.
And that is why I am struggling to justify taking profit too early.
It is difficult, because this is a lot of money. The position is big, the profit is big, and the temptation to lock it in is obviously there.
But if the data is telling us that spot sellers are still in control, then closing too early could be the mistake.
The clearest answer comes from the taker buy versus taker sell data.
On Ethereum spot volume, taker sell volume is currently around 53.72%.
That is the key.
Ethereum spot volume is up 31.35% in the past 24 hours, but the majority of that increase is sell pressure.
That does not scream “buy the dip.”
It screams that sellers are still in control.
So when people ask why I am still considering holding the short, this is the reason.
Spot volume is rising, but it is rising because people are selling. Futures still dominate the market. Open interest remains important. Liquidity below remains attractive.
This is not a market where I want to blindly assume a bounce just because price has already dropped.
The bounce may come, but the data still says the market is weak.
And if Ethereum really starts opening up to the downside, this trade could become enormous.
Make sure you have channel notifications turned on, because this is exactly the kind of market where decisions have to be made quickly.
Also, if you are trading this market, make sure you check out Yubit through my link.
You can get VIP2 fees, which gives you a significant fee discount when trading.
They’re also running a free trade promotion:
Deposit over $500, trade $50,000 in volume, and you can get a free $10,000 trade.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
Over the past 30 days, Ethereum spot volume has made up only around 5.26% of the futures market.
That is extremely low.
Spot volume has continued declining throughout this entire move, and the last time we saw a big spike in volume after a sharp move down, followed by volume declining again afterwards, price continued lower.
Follow the money.
If the same structure plays out again, then $1,800 and potentially below becomes the obvious Ethereum target.
No one really wants to hear that, but that is the brutal reality of the market right now.
Now, here is where it gets even more interesting.
Ethereum spot volume is up 31.35% over the past 24 hours, sitting around $1.91 billion. That is not terribly far away from Bitcoin’s $3.3 billion in spot volume over the same period.
So the question is:
Why is Ethereum spot volume rising so aggressively compared to futures volume, while still only making up roughly 5% of Ethereum’s overall market volume?
To me, the answer is simple.
It looks like people are getting out before something bad happens.
This is not clean accumulation. This does not look like aggressive spot buyers stepping in and defending the market.
It looks like exit volume.
We also have wider risk-off signals building in traditional markets. The Gates Foundation Trust has exited its remaining Microsoft position, and there are fresh stress signals around hedge funds and liquidity across the market.
That does not automatically mean everything crashes, but it does add to the overall picture that markets may be getting worse, not better.
And that is why I am struggling to justify taking profit too early.
It is difficult, because this is a lot of money. The position is big, the profit is big, and the temptation to lock it in is obviously there.
But if the data is telling us that spot sellers are still in control, then closing too early could be the mistake.
The clearest answer comes from the taker buy versus taker sell data.
On Ethereum spot volume, taker sell volume is currently around 53.72%.
That is the key.
Ethereum spot volume is up 31.35% in the past 24 hours, but the majority of that increase is sell pressure.
That does not scream “buy the dip.”
It screams that sellers are still in control.
So when people ask why I am still considering holding the short, this is the reason.
Spot volume is rising, but it is rising because people are selling. Futures still dominate the market. Open interest remains important. Liquidity below remains attractive.
This is not a market where I want to blindly assume a bounce just because price has already dropped.
The bounce may come, but the data still says the market is weak.
And if Ethereum really starts opening up to the downside, this trade could become enormous.
Make sure you have channel notifications turned on, because this is exactly the kind of market where decisions have to be made quickly.
Also, if you are trading this market, make sure you check out Yubit through my link.
You can get VIP2 fees, which gives you a significant fee discount when trading.
They’re also running a free trade promotion:
Deposit over $500, trade $50,000 in volume, and you can get a free $10,000 trade.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
👍7❤1
FINAL MAINSTREAM FINANCE NEWS HEADLINES SENTIMENT CHECK
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Finally, to complete this morning’s analysis, let’s do a quick sentiment check on the news.
Honestly, I am surprised.
I expected to wake up and see more positive headlines than this. The crypto news actually looks better than the broader real-world news this morning, and that is not exactly confidence-inspiring.
The wider news backdrop still looks pretty negative, and from a sentiment perspective, that is another bearish signal.
The only thing that makes me question it is how early this downside move still looks.
The move feels young. It does not look exhausted yet. It does not look like the market has properly flushed. It still feels like there could be more downside left before this is done.
Can it really be that clean?
Maybe.
That is why today is important. The data, the volume, the open interest, the liquidation heat maps, and now the broader news sentiment are all still leaning in the same direction.
The bounce can happen at any time, especially with the CME gap still sitting above. But right now, I still do not think the market looks healthy.
Make sure you have channel notifications turned on, because if this move starts opening up properly, decisions will need to be made quickly.
Also, if you are trading this market, make sure you check out Yubit through my link.
You can get VIP2 fees, which gives you a significant fee discount when trading.
They’re also running a free trade promotion:
Deposit over $500, trade $50,000 in volume, and you can get a free $10,000 trade.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Finally, to complete this morning’s analysis, let’s do a quick sentiment check on the news.
Honestly, I am surprised.
I expected to wake up and see more positive headlines than this. The crypto news actually looks better than the broader real-world news this morning, and that is not exactly confidence-inspiring.
The wider news backdrop still looks pretty negative, and from a sentiment perspective, that is another bearish signal.
The only thing that makes me question it is how early this downside move still looks.
The move feels young. It does not look exhausted yet. It does not look like the market has properly flushed. It still feels like there could be more downside left before this is done.
Can it really be that clean?
Maybe.
That is why today is important. The data, the volume, the open interest, the liquidation heat maps, and now the broader news sentiment are all still leaning in the same direction.
The bounce can happen at any time, especially with the CME gap still sitting above. But right now, I still do not think the market looks healthy.
Make sure you have channel notifications turned on, because if this move starts opening up properly, decisions will need to be made quickly.
Also, if you are trading this market, make sure you check out Yubit through my link.
You can get VIP2 fees, which gives you a significant fee discount when trading.
They’re also running a free trade promotion:
Deposit over $500, trade $50,000 in volume, and you can get a free $10,000 trade.
Join me on Yubit, trade with the community, and let’s make the next bull market ours.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
👍6❤2
I NEARLY CLOSED MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT THEN I SAW THIS CHART
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/5ePa-kVE80U
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/5ePa-kVE80U
YouTube
I NEARLY CLOSED MY $15,000,000 BITCOIN SHORT THEN I SAW THIS CHART
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | $8.9M CRYPTO SHORT | BITCOIN MARKET UPDATE
Bitcoin is at a critical level, and today’s video breaks down why there is currently a 50/50 chance of Bitcoin moving higher or lower from here. While parts of the technical…
Bitcoin is at a critical level, and today’s video breaks down why there is currently a 50/50 chance of Bitcoin moving higher or lower from here. While parts of the technical…
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Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,780.
On the lower timeframes, we are seeing a small bounce, but for now the key thing is the reaction around these levels:
Resistance: $77,000
Major resistance: $77,600
Support: $76,620 / $76,500 area
If Bitcoin breaks below $76,500, I think there is a strong chance we see a sharp move lower, potentially a liquidation candle to grab the liquidity sitting underneath.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin can reclaim $77,000 and then push through $77,600, the probability of a move towards $79,000 increases, especially with the CME gap still sitting above.
So for now, this is the range I’m watching closely. The market is sitting at a decision point.
On the lower timeframes, we are seeing a small bounce, but for now the key thing is the reaction around these levels:
Resistance: $77,000
Major resistance: $77,600
Support: $76,620 / $76,500 area
If Bitcoin breaks below $76,500, I think there is a strong chance we see a sharp move lower, potentially a liquidation candle to grab the liquidity sitting underneath.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin can reclaim $77,000 and then push through $77,600, the probability of a move towards $79,000 increases, especially with the CME gap still sitting above.
So for now, this is the range I’m watching closely. The market is sitting at a decision point.
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We might be on the way to close the CME Gap as i have mentioned
That could be painful if i stay in
Its nearly decision time
That could be painful if i stay in
Its nearly decision time
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Starting this morning’s analysis, Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,880, give or take.
The position is still sitting roughly $500,000 in open profit, and we have already locked in around $272,000 in realised profit. So even if price pushes back to the upside from here, we are already in a very strong position on the trade.
That said, I do see a few things on the chart this morning that suggest today could become more bullish, at least in the short term.
So the decision now becomes interesting.
Is this the best time to cash out the trade and step aside for the next few days?
Or is the entry good enough that we hold through the next short squeeze and treat this as a longer-term position?
That is the dilemma.
The trade is already very profitable, and there is a sensible argument for banking it. But the entry is also extremely strong. If Bitcoin does continue breaking down after any short-term bounce, this could become a much larger position worth significantly more money.
So today is about being patient, reading the data properly, and not making an emotional decision just because the P&L is moving around aggressively.
The position is still sitting roughly $500,000 in open profit, and we have already locked in around $272,000 in realised profit. So even if price pushes back to the upside from here, we are already in a very strong position on the trade.
That said, I do see a few things on the chart this morning that suggest today could become more bullish, at least in the short term.
So the decision now becomes interesting.
Is this the best time to cash out the trade and step aside for the next few days?
Or is the entry good enough that we hold through the next short squeeze and treat this as a longer-term position?
That is the dilemma.
The trade is already very profitable, and there is a sensible argument for banking it. But the entry is also extremely strong. If Bitcoin does continue breaking down after any short-term bounce, this could become a much larger position worth significantly more money.
So today is about being patient, reading the data properly, and not making an emotional decision just because the P&L is moving around aggressively.
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BITCOIN SPOT ETF FLOW UPDATE
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Starting with the Bitcoin spot ETF net flows.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of around 8,380 BTC, which is roughly $648 million leaving the ETFs.
Across the full ETF market, that is close to a billion dollars in withdrawals, bringing total net assets down to around $106.95 billion.
That is a significant sell-off across the board, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing the largest outflow on the day.
Looking at the total Bitcoin spot ETF net flow chart in USD, these are aggressive exits. The important thing to understand is that large ETF outflow days often attract more outflows afterwards.
It does not always happen in one straight line. You usually do not get huge outflow days stacked perfectly back-to-back. More commonly, you see a little money come in, then a lot go out. Then a little comes in again, then another large outflow follows.
That is why we can probably expect more of the same while this trend continues.
Right now, ETF flows are in a clear downtrend. That makes me less interested in closing the overall short position too early.
But if I was opening a fresh trade today, I would probably be looking for a short-term long.
And I have done that on a separate account.
I am currently lightly long on Ethereum and one other small position, but with nowhere near the same size. This is just a smaller test position to see if the short-term bounce theory is correct.
I’ll attach a screenshot of that as well. It is just on Bybit, with a small amount of money that I use now and again to test ideas and see if I can turn it into something larger.
Even though I have large accounts, I still like playing around with small accounts.
For me, the best part of trading is not just the money. It is being correct.
That is what this group is about.
It is not about ego. It is not about being permanently bullish or permanently bearish.
It is about reading the data, following the money, changing your mind when the facts change, and trying to be correct.
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Starting with the Bitcoin spot ETF net flows.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of around 8,380 BTC, which is roughly $648 million leaving the ETFs.
Across the full ETF market, that is close to a billion dollars in withdrawals, bringing total net assets down to around $106.95 billion.
That is a significant sell-off across the board, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing the largest outflow on the day.
Looking at the total Bitcoin spot ETF net flow chart in USD, these are aggressive exits. The important thing to understand is that large ETF outflow days often attract more outflows afterwards.
It does not always happen in one straight line. You usually do not get huge outflow days stacked perfectly back-to-back. More commonly, you see a little money come in, then a lot go out. Then a little comes in again, then another large outflow follows.
That is why we can probably expect more of the same while this trend continues.
Right now, ETF flows are in a clear downtrend. That makes me less interested in closing the overall short position too early.
But if I was opening a fresh trade today, I would probably be looking for a short-term long.
And I have done that on a separate account.
I am currently lightly long on Ethereum and one other small position, but with nowhere near the same size. This is just a smaller test position to see if the short-term bounce theory is correct.
I’ll attach a screenshot of that as well. It is just on Bybit, with a small amount of money that I use now and again to test ideas and see if I can turn it into something larger.
Even though I have large accounts, I still like playing around with small accounts.
For me, the best part of trading is not just the money. It is being correct.
That is what this group is about.
It is not about ego. It is not about being permanently bullish or permanently bearish.
It is about reading the data, following the money, changing your mind when the facts change, and trying to be correct.
👍8👏4