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I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $15,000,000…
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | BITCOIN ETF FLOWS | BITCOIN SHORT POSITION
Bitcoin is moving fast, and today’s video breaks down my current $15 million Bitcoin short position, why the trade is now in a huge profit, and whether this move still…
Bitcoin is moving fast, and today’s video breaks down my current $15 million Bitcoin short position, why the trade is now in a huge profit, and whether this move still…
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Starting today’s Bitcoin analysis with funding rates.
Looking across the board, funding is not negative. Most funding rates are still positive, but the important detail is that the green is starting to fade back towards neutral.
That is a minor concern.
The more important chart for me is the Bitcoin open interest weighted funding rate.
Recently, when the weighted funding rate has gone heavily negative, Bitcoin has tended to peak within the range. Then, as the weighted funding rate starts turning more positive again, price has started moving back down.
Right now, we are still fairly green on the open interest weighted funding rate, which, based on the recent structure, still supports the bearish case.
However, the line is now starting to slope down.
That means the market needs to find fresh downside momentum over the next few hours. If it does not, then the setup becomes much more vulnerable to a reset.
The main risk is the CME gap.
If Bitcoin starts moving back towards that gap, we could easily see a $1,000 jump, and that would evaporate a huge portion of the open profit on this position very quickly.
That is the reality of trading this size.
The trade is still working, but the market needs to continue proving the downside case. If momentum stalls here, then we have to respect the risk of a bounce.
Looking across the board, funding is not negative. Most funding rates are still positive, but the important detail is that the green is starting to fade back towards neutral.
That is a minor concern.
The more important chart for me is the Bitcoin open interest weighted funding rate.
Recently, when the weighted funding rate has gone heavily negative, Bitcoin has tended to peak within the range. Then, as the weighted funding rate starts turning more positive again, price has started moving back down.
Right now, we are still fairly green on the open interest weighted funding rate, which, based on the recent structure, still supports the bearish case.
However, the line is now starting to slope down.
That means the market needs to find fresh downside momentum over the next few hours. If it does not, then the setup becomes much more vulnerable to a reset.
The main risk is the CME gap.
If Bitcoin starts moving back towards that gap, we could easily see a $1,000 jump, and that would evaporate a huge portion of the open profit on this position very quickly.
That is the reality of trading this size.
The trade is still working, but the market needs to continue proving the downside case. If momentum stalls here, then we have to respect the risk of a bounce.
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On the flip side, it is Sunday, so we do have to be careful not to overread weekend data.
That said, the volume picture is still weak.
Spot volumes have fallen sharply, while futures volumes are down around 38.5%. That shows declining interest in trading crypto across both spot and derivatives markets.
Some of that is normal for a weekend. We expect lower activity on Sundays. But the scale of the drop-off is the concern, especially after Saturday also came in weaker than you would normally expect.
Historically, Saturday can still produce decent crypto volume. This weekend, that has not really been the case.
Bitcoin is currently accounting for around 27.52% of total spot volume, with Bitcoin spot volume itself sitting around $2.72 billion.
That is not impressive.
These are not strong market participation numbers. Across the board, interest has dropped heavily over the weekend, and that could become a leading indicator going into next week.
Lower spot participation means weaker real demand. If buyers are not stepping in with size, then the market becomes more vulnerable to further downside, especially when futures positioning and liquidity are already pointing in that direction.
I’ll show you the next charts as well, and you can decide for yourself.
That said, the volume picture is still weak.
Spot volumes have fallen sharply, while futures volumes are down around 38.5%. That shows declining interest in trading crypto across both spot and derivatives markets.
Some of that is normal for a weekend. We expect lower activity on Sundays. But the scale of the drop-off is the concern, especially after Saturday also came in weaker than you would normally expect.
Historically, Saturday can still produce decent crypto volume. This weekend, that has not really been the case.
Bitcoin is currently accounting for around 27.52% of total spot volume, with Bitcoin spot volume itself sitting around $2.72 billion.
That is not impressive.
These are not strong market participation numbers. Across the board, interest has dropped heavily over the weekend, and that could become a leading indicator going into next week.
Lower spot participation means weaker real demand. If buyers are not stepping in with size, then the market becomes more vulnerable to further downside, especially when futures positioning and liquidity are already pointing in that direction.
I’ll show you the next charts as well, and you can decide for yourself.
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Something worth noting today is that Ethereum and Solana are not seeing the same percentage drop in volume as Bitcoin, XRP, and especially Hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid volume is down around 44% over the last 24 hours, which is a huge drop.
But despite that 44% decline in volume, HYPE is still up around 2% on price.
That tells us something important: the volume drop is not always directly representative of price direction. Lower volume does not automatically mean bearish price action across every asset.
When we look at open interest weighted volume across the market, a lot of it appears positive on the surface. But this is where context matters.
Open interest by itself does not tell us enough in this format.
When you see a random green bar on a chart labelled “open interest”, that does not automatically mean bullish. You need the full chart structure to explain what the data actually means.
Without context, the data is almost meaningless.
That is why we now need to go deeper into Bitcoin spot volume specifically, because that is where we can start to see whether real demand is coming into the market, or whether this is still mostly driven by leverage, exits, and weak participation.
Hyperliquid volume is down around 44% over the last 24 hours, which is a huge drop.
But despite that 44% decline in volume, HYPE is still up around 2% on price.
That tells us something important: the volume drop is not always directly representative of price direction. Lower volume does not automatically mean bearish price action across every asset.
When we look at open interest weighted volume across the market, a lot of it appears positive on the surface. But this is where context matters.
Open interest by itself does not tell us enough in this format.
When you see a random green bar on a chart labelled “open interest”, that does not automatically mean bullish. You need the full chart structure to explain what the data actually means.
Without context, the data is almost meaningless.
That is why we now need to go deeper into Bitcoin spot volume specifically, because that is where we can start to see whether real demand is coming into the market, or whether this is still mostly driven by leverage, exits, and weak participation.
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What we are seeing from the spot volume side is not confidence-inspiring.
Spot volume is falling more aggressively than futures volume, which tells us buyers are not really stepping in to buy the dip with spot.
That matters.
If Bitcoin was sitting at a genuinely attractive accumulation range, you would expect to see stronger spot demand coming in. Right now, we are not seeing that.
Unless something fundamentally changes, this does not look like a market where spot buyers are aggressively defending price.
Looking at the Bitcoin price versus volume history chart, the trend is also clear. Spot trading volume continues to slope lower, showing a steady decline in real market participation.
The spot volume percentage over the past 30 days has now dropped to around 6.81%. The other day, it was around 7.01%.
That is not a huge move in isolation, but the direction matters.
In a healthier market, I would want to see spot volume making up closer to 10% of total market activity. Right now, Bitcoin is not getting there.
So the conclusion is simple: spot demand is weak, futures are still dominating the move, and the market does not currently look structurally healthy.
It looks rough.
Spot volume is falling more aggressively than futures volume, which tells us buyers are not really stepping in to buy the dip with spot.
That matters.
If Bitcoin was sitting at a genuinely attractive accumulation range, you would expect to see stronger spot demand coming in. Right now, we are not seeing that.
Unless something fundamentally changes, this does not look like a market where spot buyers are aggressively defending price.
Looking at the Bitcoin price versus volume history chart, the trend is also clear. Spot trading volume continues to slope lower, showing a steady decline in real market participation.
The spot volume percentage over the past 30 days has now dropped to around 6.81%. The other day, it was around 7.01%.
That is not a huge move in isolation, but the direction matters.
In a healthier market, I would want to see spot volume making up closer to 10% of total market activity. Right now, Bitcoin is not getting there.
So the conclusion is simple: spot demand is weak, futures are still dominating the move, and the market does not currently look structurally healthy.
It looks rough.
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I’ve attached two Bitcoin liquidation heat maps here.
The first is the 24-hour heat map, and the second is the 48-hour heat map.
Starting with the 24-hour view, we can see two major liquidity zones forming.
One sits above price, around $78,800.
The other sits below price, around $77,281.
It is very likely that Bitcoin takes out one of those levels today, so the question becomes: which side is the market more likely to target first?
That is where the 48-hour heat map becomes useful.
On the 48-hour view, the liquidity around the $77,000 region looks far more established than the liquidity sitting above at around $78,700. The bigger upside liquidation level is closer to $79,863, which is basically a full return back towards my short entry.
So the risk is clear.
If Bitcoin starts pushing back towards that upside liquidity, the trade becomes uncomfortable very quickly. That would put the position back near entry and wipe out a lot of the open profit.
What I want to see instead is a move lower into the $77,000 region, where the more established liquidity is sitting.
Based on these two heat maps, the downside target looks more attractive right now. There is more liquidity below, and in this kind of market, liquidity usually acts like a magnet.
So for now, the downside case still looks more likely to me.
The first is the 24-hour heat map, and the second is the 48-hour heat map.
Starting with the 24-hour view, we can see two major liquidity zones forming.
One sits above price, around $78,800.
The other sits below price, around $77,281.
It is very likely that Bitcoin takes out one of those levels today, so the question becomes: which side is the market more likely to target first?
That is where the 48-hour heat map becomes useful.
On the 48-hour view, the liquidity around the $77,000 region looks far more established than the liquidity sitting above at around $78,700. The bigger upside liquidation level is closer to $79,863, which is basically a full return back towards my short entry.
So the risk is clear.
If Bitcoin starts pushing back towards that upside liquidity, the trade becomes uncomfortable very quickly. That would put the position back near entry and wipe out a lot of the open profit.
What I want to see instead is a move lower into the $77,000 region, where the more established liquidity is sitting.
Based on these two heat maps, the downside target looks more attractive right now. There is more liquidity below, and in this kind of market, liquidity usually acts like a magnet.
So for now, the downside case still looks more likely to me.
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Now we get to the meat and potatoes of the analysis.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,116 and, on the surface, it is starting to form what looks like a potential recovery pattern.
That idea is supported by one key data point: percentage-wise, Bitcoin’s price has dropped more than liquidity has reduced.
That can indicate that price is becoming undervalued relative to the liquidity structure, and these are often the kinds of signals you see just before a market attempts to break out of a range.
This is why we have to be careful.
There are definitely some things on the Bitcoin chart that, in isolation, could be read as bullish. Some traders would look at this structure and say, “that is bullish.”
And to be fair, I understand that argument.
But when price is sitting close to the edge of a major range, the data becomes much harder to read cleanly. Signals can look bullish right before a rejection, and they can look bearish right before a breakout.
That is why context matters.
The reason I managed to catch this short position in the first place is because we were not just reading Bitcoin in isolation. We were reading the broader market structure, and especially Ethereum open interest.
Ethereum has been giving us much cleaner signals recently than Bitcoin open interest.
So before making a final judgment on Bitcoin here, I think we need to look closely at what Ethereum is doing.
If Ethereum open interest continues to confirm downside pressure, then Bitcoin’s recovery pattern may simply be a temporary bounce inside a larger bearish structure.
But if Ethereum starts showing genuine strength, then we have to respect the possibility that Bitcoin is preparing to reclaim the range.
So before we decide whether Bitcoin is genuinely recovering or just setting up another trap, we need to read Ethereum properly.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,116 and, on the surface, it is starting to form what looks like a potential recovery pattern.
That idea is supported by one key data point: percentage-wise, Bitcoin’s price has dropped more than liquidity has reduced.
That can indicate that price is becoming undervalued relative to the liquidity structure, and these are often the kinds of signals you see just before a market attempts to break out of a range.
This is why we have to be careful.
There are definitely some things on the Bitcoin chart that, in isolation, could be read as bullish. Some traders would look at this structure and say, “that is bullish.”
And to be fair, I understand that argument.
But when price is sitting close to the edge of a major range, the data becomes much harder to read cleanly. Signals can look bullish right before a rejection, and they can look bearish right before a breakout.
That is why context matters.
The reason I managed to catch this short position in the first place is because we were not just reading Bitcoin in isolation. We were reading the broader market structure, and especially Ethereum open interest.
Ethereum has been giving us much cleaner signals recently than Bitcoin open interest.
So before making a final judgment on Bitcoin here, I think we need to look closely at what Ethereum is doing.
If Ethereum open interest continues to confirm downside pressure, then Bitcoin’s recovery pattern may simply be a temporary bounce inside a larger bearish structure.
But if Ethereum starts showing genuine strength, then we have to respect the possibility that Bitcoin is preparing to reclaim the range.
So before we decide whether Bitcoin is genuinely recovering or just setting up another trap, we need to read Ethereum properly.
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This is where the data gets really interesting.
These are the Ethereum open interest statistics, and yes, the drawings on the chart are terrible, but it is my channel, so deal with it.
The important part is the structure.
When Ethereum open interest rises while Ethereum price falls, that usually suggests new short positions are entering the market and applying pressure.
Then, when Ethereum price rises while open interest falls, that usually suggests positions are being closed. In this context, that often means shorts are exiting or taking profit, which pushes price back up.
Then we see the same thing again: open interest rises aggressively, price falls again.
That is another sign of fresh short positioning entering the market.
The next part is even more interesting.
Ethereum price then rises again, while open interest drops. That suggests more positions are being closed. Depending on the exact structure, that can either be short covering or longs cashing out into the move.
Then, once Ethereum open interest starts rising again, price begins falling again. That once again points towards short positions being opened and downside pressure returning.
And just to be clear, this is Ethereum data, not Bitcoin data.
That matters, because recently Ethereum open interest has been giving us much cleaner signals than Bitcoin open interest.
Over the weekend, we saw another sell-off in Ethereum. During that move, open interest dropped, but not aggressively. That is important.
As I said yesterday, that can indicate some futures dip-buying, but not strong spot buying. If price falls harder than open interest falls, it suggests the market is still under pressure, but some leveraged traders are trying to absorb the move.
Then throughout the weekend, we have seen open interest rising and price rising, followed by open interest falling and price falling.
The key question is this:
Have the large short positions from earlier in the week actually closed?
From the data, it does not look like they have fully exited yet.
That means one of two things is likely happening. Either those traders are averaging into a larger position, or a new larger short position has been opened with the intention of holding for a longer move.
Because of the size and structure of the move, I do not think this looks like a small short-term scalp. It looks more like someone positioning for a larger move.
That is why this data is so important for my own trade.
Yes, I am in a very large position. Proportionally, it is a lot of money. And the data this morning is definitely raising the question of whether I should hold, trim, or prepare for a CME gap close.
The CME gap is the main risk.
Many times in my life, I have watched those gaps close, but often it happens later in the week, around Wednesday or Thursday. Could it close on Monday? Absolutely. In fact, it is probably the most likely outcome if the market starts leaning back towards that level.
That would mean Bitcoin needs to move up roughly $1,000 before the end of the day.
So this is the trade-off.
The Ethereum open interest data still supports the downside case, but the CME gap creates a real short-term upside risk.
That is why I am not blindly ignoring the bounce risk, but I am also not closing the whole trade just because the market has a gap above us.
For now, the bigger positioning data still looks bearish. The question is whether we get the downside continuation first, or whether Bitcoin forces the gap close before the next leg lower.
These are the Ethereum open interest statistics, and yes, the drawings on the chart are terrible, but it is my channel, so deal with it.
The important part is the structure.
When Ethereum open interest rises while Ethereum price falls, that usually suggests new short positions are entering the market and applying pressure.
Then, when Ethereum price rises while open interest falls, that usually suggests positions are being closed. In this context, that often means shorts are exiting or taking profit, which pushes price back up.
Then we see the same thing again: open interest rises aggressively, price falls again.
That is another sign of fresh short positioning entering the market.
The next part is even more interesting.
Ethereum price then rises again, while open interest drops. That suggests more positions are being closed. Depending on the exact structure, that can either be short covering or longs cashing out into the move.
Then, once Ethereum open interest starts rising again, price begins falling again. That once again points towards short positions being opened and downside pressure returning.
And just to be clear, this is Ethereum data, not Bitcoin data.
That matters, because recently Ethereum open interest has been giving us much cleaner signals than Bitcoin open interest.
Over the weekend, we saw another sell-off in Ethereum. During that move, open interest dropped, but not aggressively. That is important.
As I said yesterday, that can indicate some futures dip-buying, but not strong spot buying. If price falls harder than open interest falls, it suggests the market is still under pressure, but some leveraged traders are trying to absorb the move.
Then throughout the weekend, we have seen open interest rising and price rising, followed by open interest falling and price falling.
The key question is this:
Have the large short positions from earlier in the week actually closed?
From the data, it does not look like they have fully exited yet.
That means one of two things is likely happening. Either those traders are averaging into a larger position, or a new larger short position has been opened with the intention of holding for a longer move.
Because of the size and structure of the move, I do not think this looks like a small short-term scalp. It looks more like someone positioning for a larger move.
That is why this data is so important for my own trade.
Yes, I am in a very large position. Proportionally, it is a lot of money. And the data this morning is definitely raising the question of whether I should hold, trim, or prepare for a CME gap close.
The CME gap is the main risk.
Many times in my life, I have watched those gaps close, but often it happens later in the week, around Wednesday or Thursday. Could it close on Monday? Absolutely. In fact, it is probably the most likely outcome if the market starts leaning back towards that level.
That would mean Bitcoin needs to move up roughly $1,000 before the end of the day.
So this is the trade-off.
The Ethereum open interest data still supports the downside case, but the CME gap creates a real short-term upside risk.
That is why I am not blindly ignoring the bounce risk, but I am also not closing the whole trade just because the market has a gap above us.
For now, the bigger positioning data still looks bearish. The question is whether we get the downside continuation first, or whether Bitcoin forces the gap close before the next leg lower.
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Having said all of that, here is the Ethereum liquidation heat map.
On this chart, the biggest and most attractive liquidity zone still appears to be below price, but Ethereum is currently hugging the upside and trading in no man’s land.
The key level I’m watching is $2,200.
If Ethereum starts breaking above $2,200 with strength, then I think it is very possible we push into the mid-$2,200 range before seeing any meaningful rejection.
That would not be ideal for my current trade.
So this is an important decision point. Either we hold the position and let the data continue playing out, or we take profit and accept that the CME gap / upside liquidity risk is too big to ignore.
Right now, I still think the downside case is there, but I’m not pretending this is a simple decision. The position is in strong profit, the market is volatile, and Ethereum is sitting right at a level where the next move matters.
Let me know your thoughts in the chat.
Also, make sure to check out Yubit using the link below.
If you sign up through my link, you can get VIP2 fees, which gives you a significant fee discount when trading.
They’re also currently offering a free trade promotion:
Deposit over $500, trade $50,000 in volume, and you can get a free $10,000 trade.
That is a genuinely useful offer if you’re already trading futures and want to reduce fees while getting extra trading value on the account.
Use your weekends to improve your week.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
On this chart, the biggest and most attractive liquidity zone still appears to be below price, but Ethereum is currently hugging the upside and trading in no man’s land.
The key level I’m watching is $2,200.
If Ethereum starts breaking above $2,200 with strength, then I think it is very possible we push into the mid-$2,200 range before seeing any meaningful rejection.
That would not be ideal for my current trade.
So this is an important decision point. Either we hold the position and let the data continue playing out, or we take profit and accept that the CME gap / upside liquidity risk is too big to ignore.
Right now, I still think the downside case is there, but I’m not pretending this is a simple decision. The position is in strong profit, the market is volatile, and Ethereum is sitting right at a level where the next move matters.
Let me know your thoughts in the chat.
Also, make sure to check out Yubit using the link below.
If you sign up through my link, you can get VIP2 fees, which gives you a significant fee discount when trading.
They’re also currently offering a free trade promotion:
Deposit over $500, trade $50,000 in volume, and you can get a free $10,000 trade.
That is a genuinely useful offer if you’re already trading futures and want to reduce fees while getting extra trading value on the account.
Use your weekends to improve your week.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=FREETRADE 👈
Terms apply. Trade responsibly.
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Something i want to cover is
Open interest is the total amount of futures positions that are still open in the market. It is not the same as volume.
Volume tells us how much has traded over a period of time.
Open interest tells us how much positioning is still sitting in the market.
So when we say something is “open interest weighted”, it means the data is not treating every exchange equally. It is giving more importance to the exchanges or contracts where the most open interest exists.
The basic equation looks like this:
Open Interest Weight = Exchange Open Interest ÷ Total Open Interest
Then:
Open Interest Weighted Value = Sum of each exchange’s value × its open interest weight
So, in simple English:
If Binance has 50% of the total open interest, Binance gets 50% of the influence in the calculation.
If Bybit has 30% of the total open interest, Bybit gets 30% of the influence.
If OKX has 20% of the total open interest, OKX gets 20% of the influence.
That matters because a small exchange with low open interest should not move the final reading as much as a major exchange where billions of dollars of positions are actually open.
This is useful because it helps us understand where the real leveraged positioning is happening.
A normal volume reading tells us how much traded.
An open interest weighted reading tells us how important that trading is relative to the amount of open positions in the market.
That is why I care about it.
If volume is rising on an exchange with very little open interest, it may not matter much.
But if volume rises while open interest is also large, that becomes much more important because it suggests serious positioning is happening in a part of the market that actually has weight behind it.
The key thing to remember is this:
Open interest weighted data does not automatically tell you bullish or bearish.
It tells you where the important activity is.
To work out direction, you still need to compare it against price action, funding rates, spot volume, liquidations, and whether open interest is rising or falling.
That is how you turn the number into actual market analysis.
Open interest is the total amount of futures positions that are still open in the market. It is not the same as volume.
Volume tells us how much has traded over a period of time.
Open interest tells us how much positioning is still sitting in the market.
So when we say something is “open interest weighted”, it means the data is not treating every exchange equally. It is giving more importance to the exchanges or contracts where the most open interest exists.
The basic equation looks like this:
Open Interest Weight = Exchange Open Interest ÷ Total Open Interest
Then:
Open Interest Weighted Value = Sum of each exchange’s value × its open interest weight
So, in simple English:
If Binance has 50% of the total open interest, Binance gets 50% of the influence in the calculation.
If Bybit has 30% of the total open interest, Bybit gets 30% of the influence.
If OKX has 20% of the total open interest, OKX gets 20% of the influence.
That matters because a small exchange with low open interest should not move the final reading as much as a major exchange where billions of dollars of positions are actually open.
This is useful because it helps us understand where the real leveraged positioning is happening.
A normal volume reading tells us how much traded.
An open interest weighted reading tells us how important that trading is relative to the amount of open positions in the market.
That is why I care about it.
If volume is rising on an exchange with very little open interest, it may not matter much.
But if volume rises while open interest is also large, that becomes much more important because it suggests serious positioning is happening in a part of the market that actually has weight behind it.
The key thing to remember is this:
Open interest weighted data does not automatically tell you bullish or bearish.
It tells you where the important activity is.
To work out direction, you still need to compare it against price action, funding rates, spot volume, liquidations, and whether open interest is rising or falling.
That is how you turn the number into actual market analysis.
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I CLOSED 50%
Not chancing it with the CME gap potentially closing here. It looks like price has some momentum, so this may give us a cleaner opportunity to re-short in the morning.
Could be the wrong decision but its the sensible one
Not chancing it with the CME gap potentially closing here. It looks like price has some momentum, so this may give us a cleaner opportunity to re-short in the morning.
Could be the wrong decision but its the sensible one
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