Now let’s look at Bitcoin open interest and the liquidation heat map.
Open interest has dropped heavily overnight, now sitting around $25.4 billion, with roughly $1.5 billion wiped out from the market.
That is a meaningful reduction in leverage.
But the liquidation heat map is the more interesting part here.
On the current Bitcoin liquidation heat map, we can see a large yellow liquidity range sitting below us, around the $77,000 area. When those ranges start turning bright yellow, they become much more attractive targets for the market.
I’ve also attached the 48-hour liquidation heat map, which gives us twice as much data as the 24-hour view.
On that chart, the liquidity below is still clearly visible, but it is not quite as intense as the upside liquidity range that Bitcoin has just taken out. That matters, because it suggests the market may have already completed one major upside liquidity grab and could now be setting up for a downside sweep.
My current view is that Bitcoin could push down into the $77,000 region, take that liquidity, and then potentially rally back into the $80,000s before another larger move lower.
That is the structure I am watching.
I am starting to think about taking some profit in the not-too-distant future, at least partially. But at the same time, I also have to respect the fact that if this trade really opens up, it could become a massive position.
If Bitcoin continues lower towards the deeper targets, and Ethereum moves towards the $1,900 area with Solana following a similar percentage move, then the profit potential on this position becomes very serious.
That is why I am not rushing the decision.
There is a difference between taking a good trade and cutting a great trade too early.
Right now, the data still supports the downside case. Open interest has been flushed, liquidity is building below, and the market still looks like it wants to test lower levels before any proper recovery.
Open interest has dropped heavily overnight, now sitting around $25.4 billion, with roughly $1.5 billion wiped out from the market.
That is a meaningful reduction in leverage.
But the liquidation heat map is the more interesting part here.
On the current Bitcoin liquidation heat map, we can see a large yellow liquidity range sitting below us, around the $77,000 area. When those ranges start turning bright yellow, they become much more attractive targets for the market.
I’ve also attached the 48-hour liquidation heat map, which gives us twice as much data as the 24-hour view.
On that chart, the liquidity below is still clearly visible, but it is not quite as intense as the upside liquidity range that Bitcoin has just taken out. That matters, because it suggests the market may have already completed one major upside liquidity grab and could now be setting up for a downside sweep.
My current view is that Bitcoin could push down into the $77,000 region, take that liquidity, and then potentially rally back into the $80,000s before another larger move lower.
That is the structure I am watching.
I am starting to think about taking some profit in the not-too-distant future, at least partially. But at the same time, I also have to respect the fact that if this trade really opens up, it could become a massive position.
If Bitcoin continues lower towards the deeper targets, and Ethereum moves towards the $1,900 area with Solana following a similar percentage move, then the profit potential on this position becomes very serious.
That is why I am not rushing the decision.
There is a difference between taking a good trade and cutting a great trade too early.
Right now, the data still supports the downside case. Open interest has been flushed, liquidity is building below, and the market still looks like it wants to test lower levels before any proper recovery.
👍7
REQUEST
Leave a comment on this post like FANIE just did, i like that, thats nice, not often people are nice on the internet, thankyou!
https://x.com/MartiniGuyYT/status/2055550551048208709?s=20
Leave a comment on this post like FANIE just did, i like that, thats nice, not often people are nice on the internet, thankyou!
https://x.com/MartiniGuyYT/status/2055550551048208709?s=20
This is Ethereum open interest, and it is doing almost exactly what it did the other day.
You can see it clearly:
Open interest rises.
Price falls.
Price keeps falling.
Then open interest drops.
What does that tell us?
It suggests a large short position is being opened, putting pressure on the market. Spot buyers are not stepping in strongly enough to absorb it, so price moves lower.
Then, once price has dropped, those shorts start taking some profit, which causes open interest to fall.
But the important part is what happens next: new short positions start entering again, adding fresh downside pressure and pushing the market lower once more.
This is a very clean example of how open interest can help you understand market direction.
When open interest rises while price falls, and spot demand fails to absorb the selling, that is usually not a market I want to be longing.
That is a market I want to be short.
IF YOU START TRADING ON YUBIT IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS YOU WILL KEEP YOUR VIP 2 FOR LIFETIME
Right now when you deposit $100+ they give you a free $1,500 trade, more details on the link
👉 https://www.yubit.com/en-US/register?inviteCode=GNAW 👈
You can see it clearly:
Open interest rises.
Price falls.
Price keeps falling.
Then open interest drops.
What does that tell us?
It suggests a large short position is being opened, putting pressure on the market. Spot buyers are not stepping in strongly enough to absorb it, so price moves lower.
Then, once price has dropped, those shorts start taking some profit, which causes open interest to fall.
But the important part is what happens next: new short positions start entering again, adding fresh downside pressure and pushing the market lower once more.
This is a very clean example of how open interest can help you understand market direction.
When open interest rises while price falls, and spot demand fails to absorb the selling, that is usually not a market I want to be longing.
That is a market I want to be short.
IF YOU START TRADING ON YUBIT IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS YOU WILL KEEP YOUR VIP 2 FOR LIFETIME
Right now when you deposit $100+ they give you a free $1,500 trade, more details on the link
👉 https://www.yubit.com/en-US/register?inviteCode=GNAW 👈
👍6❤2
i have decided to keep holding until the video is posted, i still think more downside is very probably today given the analysis i do in the video
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it looks like its going to do another liquidity grab lower so if its going to bounce, it will bounce very very soon, if not it will fry for the rest of the day
👍5
WARNING OF IMPERSONATION ATTACKS
Due to the success of the group we are now attracting impersonation scammers
please dont send them money i wont DM you i dont know who you are, im not soliciting anything in DMs i dont really speak to anyone, im busy, please dont be an idiot and if you do want to talk to them, just run them down the garden path, can be fun to waste their time and wind them up
Due to the success of the group we are now attracting impersonation scammers
please dont send them money i wont DM you i dont know who you are, im not soliciting anything in DMs i dont really speak to anyone, im busy, please dont be an idiot and if you do want to talk to them, just run them down the garden path, can be fun to waste their time and wind them up
👍5
NEW VIDEO GOING LIVE IN 1 MIN
I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $15,000,000…
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https://youtu.be/pkSg8XxJHy4
I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $15,000,000…
Watch Now
https://youtu.be/pkSg8XxJHy4
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I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $15,000,000…
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | BITCOIN ETF FLOWS | BITCOIN SHORT POSITION
Bitcoin is moving fast, and today’s video breaks down my current $15 million Bitcoin short position, why the trade is now in a huge profit, and whether this move still…
Bitcoin is moving fast, and today’s video breaks down my current $15 million Bitcoin short position, why the trade is now in a huge profit, and whether this move still…
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Starting today’s Bitcoin analysis with funding rates.
Looking across the board, funding is not negative. Most funding rates are still positive, but the important detail is that the green is starting to fade back towards neutral.
That is a minor concern.
The more important chart for me is the Bitcoin open interest weighted funding rate.
Recently, when the weighted funding rate has gone heavily negative, Bitcoin has tended to peak within the range. Then, as the weighted funding rate starts turning more positive again, price has started moving back down.
Right now, we are still fairly green on the open interest weighted funding rate, which, based on the recent structure, still supports the bearish case.
However, the line is now starting to slope down.
That means the market needs to find fresh downside momentum over the next few hours. If it does not, then the setup becomes much more vulnerable to a reset.
The main risk is the CME gap.
If Bitcoin starts moving back towards that gap, we could easily see a $1,000 jump, and that would evaporate a huge portion of the open profit on this position very quickly.
That is the reality of trading this size.
The trade is still working, but the market needs to continue proving the downside case. If momentum stalls here, then we have to respect the risk of a bounce.
Looking across the board, funding is not negative. Most funding rates are still positive, but the important detail is that the green is starting to fade back towards neutral.
That is a minor concern.
The more important chart for me is the Bitcoin open interest weighted funding rate.
Recently, when the weighted funding rate has gone heavily negative, Bitcoin has tended to peak within the range. Then, as the weighted funding rate starts turning more positive again, price has started moving back down.
Right now, we are still fairly green on the open interest weighted funding rate, which, based on the recent structure, still supports the bearish case.
However, the line is now starting to slope down.
That means the market needs to find fresh downside momentum over the next few hours. If it does not, then the setup becomes much more vulnerable to a reset.
The main risk is the CME gap.
If Bitcoin starts moving back towards that gap, we could easily see a $1,000 jump, and that would evaporate a huge portion of the open profit on this position very quickly.
That is the reality of trading this size.
The trade is still working, but the market needs to continue proving the downside case. If momentum stalls here, then we have to respect the risk of a bounce.
🔥4
On the flip side, it is Sunday, so we do have to be careful not to overread weekend data.
That said, the volume picture is still weak.
Spot volumes have fallen sharply, while futures volumes are down around 38.5%. That shows declining interest in trading crypto across both spot and derivatives markets.
Some of that is normal for a weekend. We expect lower activity on Sundays. But the scale of the drop-off is the concern, especially after Saturday also came in weaker than you would normally expect.
Historically, Saturday can still produce decent crypto volume. This weekend, that has not really been the case.
Bitcoin is currently accounting for around 27.52% of total spot volume, with Bitcoin spot volume itself sitting around $2.72 billion.
That is not impressive.
These are not strong market participation numbers. Across the board, interest has dropped heavily over the weekend, and that could become a leading indicator going into next week.
Lower spot participation means weaker real demand. If buyers are not stepping in with size, then the market becomes more vulnerable to further downside, especially when futures positioning and liquidity are already pointing in that direction.
I’ll show you the next charts as well, and you can decide for yourself.
That said, the volume picture is still weak.
Spot volumes have fallen sharply, while futures volumes are down around 38.5%. That shows declining interest in trading crypto across both spot and derivatives markets.
Some of that is normal for a weekend. We expect lower activity on Sundays. But the scale of the drop-off is the concern, especially after Saturday also came in weaker than you would normally expect.
Historically, Saturday can still produce decent crypto volume. This weekend, that has not really been the case.
Bitcoin is currently accounting for around 27.52% of total spot volume, with Bitcoin spot volume itself sitting around $2.72 billion.
That is not impressive.
These are not strong market participation numbers. Across the board, interest has dropped heavily over the weekend, and that could become a leading indicator going into next week.
Lower spot participation means weaker real demand. If buyers are not stepping in with size, then the market becomes more vulnerable to further downside, especially when futures positioning and liquidity are already pointing in that direction.
I’ll show you the next charts as well, and you can decide for yourself.
❤4
Something worth noting today is that Ethereum and Solana are not seeing the same percentage drop in volume as Bitcoin, XRP, and especially Hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid volume is down around 44% over the last 24 hours, which is a huge drop.
But despite that 44% decline in volume, HYPE is still up around 2% on price.
That tells us something important: the volume drop is not always directly representative of price direction. Lower volume does not automatically mean bearish price action across every asset.
When we look at open interest weighted volume across the market, a lot of it appears positive on the surface. But this is where context matters.
Open interest by itself does not tell us enough in this format.
When you see a random green bar on a chart labelled “open interest”, that does not automatically mean bullish. You need the full chart structure to explain what the data actually means.
Without context, the data is almost meaningless.
That is why we now need to go deeper into Bitcoin spot volume specifically, because that is where we can start to see whether real demand is coming into the market, or whether this is still mostly driven by leverage, exits, and weak participation.
Hyperliquid volume is down around 44% over the last 24 hours, which is a huge drop.
But despite that 44% decline in volume, HYPE is still up around 2% on price.
That tells us something important: the volume drop is not always directly representative of price direction. Lower volume does not automatically mean bearish price action across every asset.
When we look at open interest weighted volume across the market, a lot of it appears positive on the surface. But this is where context matters.
Open interest by itself does not tell us enough in this format.
When you see a random green bar on a chart labelled “open interest”, that does not automatically mean bullish. You need the full chart structure to explain what the data actually means.
Without context, the data is almost meaningless.
That is why we now need to go deeper into Bitcoin spot volume specifically, because that is where we can start to see whether real demand is coming into the market, or whether this is still mostly driven by leverage, exits, and weak participation.
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What we are seeing from the spot volume side is not confidence-inspiring.
Spot volume is falling more aggressively than futures volume, which tells us buyers are not really stepping in to buy the dip with spot.
That matters.
If Bitcoin was sitting at a genuinely attractive accumulation range, you would expect to see stronger spot demand coming in. Right now, we are not seeing that.
Unless something fundamentally changes, this does not look like a market where spot buyers are aggressively defending price.
Looking at the Bitcoin price versus volume history chart, the trend is also clear. Spot trading volume continues to slope lower, showing a steady decline in real market participation.
The spot volume percentage over the past 30 days has now dropped to around 6.81%. The other day, it was around 7.01%.
That is not a huge move in isolation, but the direction matters.
In a healthier market, I would want to see spot volume making up closer to 10% of total market activity. Right now, Bitcoin is not getting there.
So the conclusion is simple: spot demand is weak, futures are still dominating the move, and the market does not currently look structurally healthy.
It looks rough.
Spot volume is falling more aggressively than futures volume, which tells us buyers are not really stepping in to buy the dip with spot.
That matters.
If Bitcoin was sitting at a genuinely attractive accumulation range, you would expect to see stronger spot demand coming in. Right now, we are not seeing that.
Unless something fundamentally changes, this does not look like a market where spot buyers are aggressively defending price.
Looking at the Bitcoin price versus volume history chart, the trend is also clear. Spot trading volume continues to slope lower, showing a steady decline in real market participation.
The spot volume percentage over the past 30 days has now dropped to around 6.81%. The other day, it was around 7.01%.
That is not a huge move in isolation, but the direction matters.
In a healthier market, I would want to see spot volume making up closer to 10% of total market activity. Right now, Bitcoin is not getting there.
So the conclusion is simple: spot demand is weak, futures are still dominating the move, and the market does not currently look structurally healthy.
It looks rough.
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