Now let’s look at volume.

Starting with the overall crypto spot volume overview, spot volumes are clearly in decline.

The important point here is what happened the last time spot volumes got down to similar levels. They did not immediately recover. They continued getting weaker.

Spot is one of the hardest parts of the market to tempt money back into once confidence disappears. When spot buyers step away, they often stay away for a while.

Now, if we zoom in and compare Bitcoin’s spot volume data to yesterday, there was a short-term increase. Bitcoin did around $260 million in spot volume yesterday, so there was definitely activity.

But context matters.

Compared to proper bull market conditions, that level of spot volume is still not impressive. And when you look back historically, these clusters of large spot volume bars often appear around moments where bigger players are exiting positions, not aggressively accumulating.

That is the key distinction.

Volume increasing does not automatically mean bullish demand. It depends where that volume is happening, what price is doing, and whether spot buyers are actually absorbing the sell pressure.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s volume distribution has also shifted even further towards futures rather than spot.

That tells me the market is still being driven more by leverage than by genuine spot demand.

In simple terms: futures activity is increasing, spot participation is weak, and the structure still looks like people are taking short positions while spot holders are reducing exposure.

That is exactly how this Bitcoin market looks right now.

Now let’s look at Bitcoin open interest and the liquidation heat map.

Open interest has dropped heavily overnight, now sitting around $25.4 billion, with roughly $1.5 billion wiped out from the market.

That is a meaningful reduction in leverage.

But the liquidation heat map is the more interesting part here.

On the current Bitcoin liquidation heat map, we can see a large yellow liquidity range sitting below us, around the $77,000 area. When those ranges start turning bright yellow, they become much more attractive targets for the market.

I’ve also attached the 48-hour liquidation heat map, which gives us twice as much data as the 24-hour view.

On that chart, the liquidity below is still clearly visible, but it is not quite as intense as the upside liquidity range that Bitcoin has just taken out. That matters, because it suggests the market may have already completed one major upside liquidity grab and could now be setting up for a downside sweep.

My current view is that Bitcoin could push down into the $77,000 region, take that liquidity, and then potentially rally back into the $80,000s before another larger move lower.

That is the structure I am watching.

I am starting to think about taking some profit in the not-too-distant future, at least partially. But at the same time, I also have to respect the fact that if this trade really opens up, it could become a massive position.

If Bitcoin continues lower towards the deeper targets, and Ethereum moves towards the $1,900 area with Solana following a similar percentage move, then the profit potential on this position becomes very serious.

That is why I am not rushing the decision.

There is a difference between taking a good trade and cutting a great trade too early.

Right now, the data still supports the downside case. Open interest has been flushed, liquidity is building below, and the market still looks like it wants to test lower levels before any proper recovery.

Starting today’s Bitcoin analysis with funding rates.

Looking across the board, funding is not negative. Most funding rates are still positive, but the important detail is that the green is starting to fade back towards neutral.

That is a minor concern.

The more important chart for me is the Bitcoin open interest weighted funding rate.

Recently, when the weighted funding rate has gone heavily negative, Bitcoin has tended to peak within the range. Then, as the weighted funding rate starts turning more positive again, price has started moving back down.

Right now, we are still fairly green on the open interest weighted funding rate, which, based on the recent structure, still supports the bearish case.

However, the line is now starting to slope down.

That means the market needs to find fresh downside momentum over the next few hours. If it does not, then the setup becomes much more vulnerable to a reset.

The main risk is the CME gap.

If Bitcoin starts moving back towards that gap, we could easily see a $1,000 jump, and that would evaporate a huge portion of the open profit on this position very quickly.

That is the reality of trading this size.

The trade is still working, but the market needs to continue proving the downside case. If momentum stalls here, then we have to respect the risk of a bounce.