Morning traders update.
This morning we are up over $600,000 on the Bitcoin short position.
The P&L is moving around by roughly $10,000 every few seconds, so it is an extremely volatile start to the day. But for now, the trade is very much moving in the direction we wanted.
Bitcoin has come back down and revisited the $78,000 area, while Ethereum has dropped back towards $2,180 after a sharp move lower this morning.
That does not automatically mean the move continues from here. We still need to watch how price reacts around these levels. But my view has not changed: I do not believe the low of the range is in yet.
To me, the market still looks like it is losing support, and I’m going to show you exactly why with the analysis I’m about to post.
So prepare yourself.
Press like, share the channel, and tell your friends to join:
https://t.me/Chart_Advantage
If you like traders with conviction, proper risk, and real money on the line, this is the place to be.
I am not here pretending with fake screenshots and hindsight analysis. I put the trades on, I explain the reasoning, and I show the wins and the losses in real time.
The only thing I ask in return is that you use YUBIT through my link.
It supports the channel, makes it worthwhile for me to keep providing this analysis for free, and you also get access to bonuses and discounts.
That is why you can see a futures bonus in my account. That was free trading money credited for using the platform, and they offer similar rewards to new users too.
IF YOU START TRADING ON YUBIT IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS YOU WILL KEEP YOUR VIP 2 FOR LIFETIME
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This morning we are up over $600,000 on the Bitcoin short position.
The P&L is moving around by roughly $10,000 every few seconds, so it is an extremely volatile start to the day. But for now, the trade is very much moving in the direction we wanted.
Bitcoin has come back down and revisited the $78,000 area, while Ethereum has dropped back towards $2,180 after a sharp move lower this morning.
That does not automatically mean the move continues from here. We still need to watch how price reacts around these levels. But my view has not changed: I do not believe the low of the range is in yet.
To me, the market still looks like it is losing support, and I’m going to show you exactly why with the analysis I’m about to post.
So prepare yourself.
Press like, share the channel, and tell your friends to join:
https://t.me/Chart_Advantage
If you like traders with conviction, proper risk, and real money on the line, this is the place to be.
I am not here pretending with fake screenshots and hindsight analysis. I put the trades on, I explain the reasoning, and I show the wins and the losses in real time.
The only thing I ask in return is that you use YUBIT through my link.
It supports the channel, makes it worthwhile for me to keep providing this analysis for free, and you also get access to bonuses and discounts.
That is why you can see a futures bonus in my account. That was free trading money credited for using the platform, and they offer similar rewards to new users too.
IF YOU START TRADING ON YUBIT IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS YOU WILL KEEP YOUR VIP 2 FOR LIFETIME
👉 https://www.yubit.com/en-US/register?inviteCode=GNAW 👈
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Chart Advantage
Chart Advantage is a private trading community for serious market participants.
We focus on high-probability setups, technical analysis, and disciplined risk management across equities, crypto, and commodities.
No noise. No hype.
Just edge.
We focus on high-probability setups, technical analysis, and disciplined risk management across equities, crypto, and commodities.
No noise. No hype.
Just edge.
👍6❤4
Starting today’s analysis with the big picture: spot net flows.
Yesterday, we raised the point that money looked like it was starting to flow out of the crypto economy, and so far, that read has been correct.
On the chart, spot net flows appear to be forming a short-term peak, but the important thing is what usually happens after a large outflow. Historically, when we get one major outflow spike, it is often followed by several more negative flow days, and price tends to remain under pressure while that plays out.
That is the risk right now.
This does not mean Bitcoin has to collapse immediately. It could simply mean we get a better buying opportunity somewhere in the mid-$70,000 range, before another move back into the $80,000s as the market continues chopping around inside this broader range.
But equally, it could be the start of a deeper move lower.
The market is in a strange position here because there are still some potentially bullish catalysts on the horizon.
One of the biggest things I’m watching is Russia and Ukraine. Putin has recently used more de-escalatory language around potential talks, and any serious peace headline would be a major macro catalyst that traders need to pay attention to.
If that becomes the dominant news story next week, then risk assets could catch a bid very quickly.
But it is not that simple for Bitcoin.
There are two sides to this.
On one hand, peace headlines are generally bullish for markets. They reduce uncertainty, improve sentiment, and can push money back into risk assets.
On the other hand, Russia has been using crypto as part of its sanctions workaround. If sanctions pressure starts to ease, or if more normal financial channels reopen, then some of that forced crypto usage could reduce in the short term.
That could be a short-term negative for crypto flows.
Longer term, I do not think that removes the Bitcoin case. Russians and other users who have already gained exposure to Bitcoin are unlikely to suddenly go back to trusting local currency systems completely. Once people understand why Bitcoin matters, that does not just disappear.
So this is not a simple bullish or bearish headline.
Peace talks could be bullish for overall market sentiment, but potentially bearish for some of the war-driven crypto flow that has supported parts of the market over the past few years.
That is why we need to keep watching the data, not just the headlines.
For now, spot net flows still support the downside case. The market still looks heavy, and unless flows start reversing properly, I still think there is a strong chance we have not seen the low of this range yet.
Yesterday, we raised the point that money looked like it was starting to flow out of the crypto economy, and so far, that read has been correct.
On the chart, spot net flows appear to be forming a short-term peak, but the important thing is what usually happens after a large outflow. Historically, when we get one major outflow spike, it is often followed by several more negative flow days, and price tends to remain under pressure while that plays out.
That is the risk right now.
This does not mean Bitcoin has to collapse immediately. It could simply mean we get a better buying opportunity somewhere in the mid-$70,000 range, before another move back into the $80,000s as the market continues chopping around inside this broader range.
But equally, it could be the start of a deeper move lower.
The market is in a strange position here because there are still some potentially bullish catalysts on the horizon.
One of the biggest things I’m watching is Russia and Ukraine. Putin has recently used more de-escalatory language around potential talks, and any serious peace headline would be a major macro catalyst that traders need to pay attention to.
If that becomes the dominant news story next week, then risk assets could catch a bid very quickly.
But it is not that simple for Bitcoin.
There are two sides to this.
On one hand, peace headlines are generally bullish for markets. They reduce uncertainty, improve sentiment, and can push money back into risk assets.
On the other hand, Russia has been using crypto as part of its sanctions workaround. If sanctions pressure starts to ease, or if more normal financial channels reopen, then some of that forced crypto usage could reduce in the short term.
That could be a short-term negative for crypto flows.
Longer term, I do not think that removes the Bitcoin case. Russians and other users who have already gained exposure to Bitcoin are unlikely to suddenly go back to trusting local currency systems completely. Once people understand why Bitcoin matters, that does not just disappear.
So this is not a simple bullish or bearish headline.
Peace talks could be bullish for overall market sentiment, but potentially bearish for some of the war-driven crypto flow that has supported parts of the market over the past few years.
That is why we need to keep watching the data, not just the headlines.
For now, spot net flows still support the downside case. The market still looks heavy, and unless flows start reversing properly, I still think there is a strong chance we have not seen the low of this range yet.
👍2
Next up, Bitcoin funding rate and open interest weighted funding rate.
The funding data is still showing a lot of green, which tells me there is still strong sell-side pressure in the market. The short trade remains the more popular side in terms of volume hitting the market, but this is not always about the number of traders.
One whale can have the impact of one million fish.
That is why this data matters. Large players move the numbers. Retail participation alone does not tell the full story.
Comparing today’s funding data with yesterday’s, it does look like we are starting to move slightly back towards neutral. That suggests some profit-taking is happening after the move down, which makes sense. Traders have made money, and a portion of the market is locking in profits.
That profit-taking can create short-term upside pressure.
We also now have a CME gap forming. At the moment, Bitcoin has created roughly a $1,000 CME gap, which is another important thing to keep in mind.
The question now is whether we leave that gap open and continue trending lower, or whether the market does what it so often does over the weekend: pushes one way, creates the gap, then comes back the other way to close it.
That is why I am considering all options here.
The current profit is still around $560,000, down slightly from the peak because the market has bounced a bit. But the trade is still in a very strong position.
I like the size of these trades. I like the structure. And because we have already captured a large move, we can afford to tolerate some upside without invalidating the full idea.
My current downside targets are still clear:
Bitcoin: around $70,000
Ethereum: around $2,100
Solana: around $84
Those are the levels I am watching right now.
Solana especially still looks like it has room to come down. Bitcoin also looks fairly programmed towards the low $70,000s if this structure keeps breaking the way I think it will.
That does not mean there will not be bounces. There will be. Profit-taking, CME gaps, weekend liquidity, and short-term positioning can all push price back up temporarily.
But for now, the bigger picture still supports the downside case.
I’ll cover the chart structure separately, because that is where the next major confirmation comes from.
The funding data is still showing a lot of green, which tells me there is still strong sell-side pressure in the market. The short trade remains the more popular side in terms of volume hitting the market, but this is not always about the number of traders.
One whale can have the impact of one million fish.
That is why this data matters. Large players move the numbers. Retail participation alone does not tell the full story.
Comparing today’s funding data with yesterday’s, it does look like we are starting to move slightly back towards neutral. That suggests some profit-taking is happening after the move down, which makes sense. Traders have made money, and a portion of the market is locking in profits.
That profit-taking can create short-term upside pressure.
We also now have a CME gap forming. At the moment, Bitcoin has created roughly a $1,000 CME gap, which is another important thing to keep in mind.
The question now is whether we leave that gap open and continue trending lower, or whether the market does what it so often does over the weekend: pushes one way, creates the gap, then comes back the other way to close it.
That is why I am considering all options here.
The current profit is still around $560,000, down slightly from the peak because the market has bounced a bit. But the trade is still in a very strong position.
I like the size of these trades. I like the structure. And because we have already captured a large move, we can afford to tolerate some upside without invalidating the full idea.
My current downside targets are still clear:
Bitcoin: around $70,000
Ethereum: around $2,100
Solana: around $84
Those are the levels I am watching right now.
Solana especially still looks like it has room to come down. Bitcoin also looks fairly programmed towards the low $70,000s if this structure keeps breaking the way I think it will.
That does not mean there will not be bounces. There will be. Profit-taking, CME gaps, weekend liquidity, and short-term positioning can all push price back up temporarily.
But for now, the bigger picture still supports the downside case.
I’ll cover the chart structure separately, because that is where the next major confirmation comes from.
👍4❤1
Now let’s look at volume.
Starting with the overall crypto spot volume overview, spot volumes are clearly in decline.
The important point here is what happened the last time spot volumes got down to similar levels. They did not immediately recover. They continued getting weaker.
Spot is one of the hardest parts of the market to tempt money back into once confidence disappears. When spot buyers step away, they often stay away for a while.
Now, if we zoom in and compare Bitcoin’s spot volume data to yesterday, there was a short-term increase. Bitcoin did around $260 million in spot volume yesterday, so there was definitely activity.
But context matters.
Compared to proper bull market conditions, that level of spot volume is still not impressive. And when you look back historically, these clusters of large spot volume bars often appear around moments where bigger players are exiting positions, not aggressively accumulating.
That is the key distinction.
Volume increasing does not automatically mean bullish demand. It depends where that volume is happening, what price is doing, and whether spot buyers are actually absorbing the sell pressure.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s volume distribution has also shifted even further towards futures rather than spot.
That tells me the market is still being driven more by leverage than by genuine spot demand.
In simple terms: futures activity is increasing, spot participation is weak, and the structure still looks like people are taking short positions while spot holders are reducing exposure.
That is exactly how this Bitcoin market looks right now.
Starting with the overall crypto spot volume overview, spot volumes are clearly in decline.
The important point here is what happened the last time spot volumes got down to similar levels. They did not immediately recover. They continued getting weaker.
Spot is one of the hardest parts of the market to tempt money back into once confidence disappears. When spot buyers step away, they often stay away for a while.
Now, if we zoom in and compare Bitcoin’s spot volume data to yesterday, there was a short-term increase. Bitcoin did around $260 million in spot volume yesterday, so there was definitely activity.
But context matters.
Compared to proper bull market conditions, that level of spot volume is still not impressive. And when you look back historically, these clusters of large spot volume bars often appear around moments where bigger players are exiting positions, not aggressively accumulating.
That is the key distinction.
Volume increasing does not automatically mean bullish demand. It depends where that volume is happening, what price is doing, and whether spot buyers are actually absorbing the sell pressure.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s volume distribution has also shifted even further towards futures rather than spot.
That tells me the market is still being driven more by leverage than by genuine spot demand.
In simple terms: futures activity is increasing, spot participation is weak, and the structure still looks like people are taking short positions while spot holders are reducing exposure.
That is exactly how this Bitcoin market looks right now.
👍5
Now let’s look at Bitcoin open interest and the liquidation heat map.
Open interest has dropped heavily overnight, now sitting around $25.4 billion, with roughly $1.5 billion wiped out from the market.
That is a meaningful reduction in leverage.
But the liquidation heat map is the more interesting part here.
On the current Bitcoin liquidation heat map, we can see a large yellow liquidity range sitting below us, around the $77,000 area. When those ranges start turning bright yellow, they become much more attractive targets for the market.
I’ve also attached the 48-hour liquidation heat map, which gives us twice as much data as the 24-hour view.
On that chart, the liquidity below is still clearly visible, but it is not quite as intense as the upside liquidity range that Bitcoin has just taken out. That matters, because it suggests the market may have already completed one major upside liquidity grab and could now be setting up for a downside sweep.
My current view is that Bitcoin could push down into the $77,000 region, take that liquidity, and then potentially rally back into the $80,000s before another larger move lower.
That is the structure I am watching.
I am starting to think about taking some profit in the not-too-distant future, at least partially. But at the same time, I also have to respect the fact that if this trade really opens up, it could become a massive position.
If Bitcoin continues lower towards the deeper targets, and Ethereum moves towards the $1,900 area with Solana following a similar percentage move, then the profit potential on this position becomes very serious.
That is why I am not rushing the decision.
There is a difference between taking a good trade and cutting a great trade too early.
Right now, the data still supports the downside case. Open interest has been flushed, liquidity is building below, and the market still looks like it wants to test lower levels before any proper recovery.
Open interest has dropped heavily overnight, now sitting around $25.4 billion, with roughly $1.5 billion wiped out from the market.
That is a meaningful reduction in leverage.
But the liquidation heat map is the more interesting part here.
On the current Bitcoin liquidation heat map, we can see a large yellow liquidity range sitting below us, around the $77,000 area. When those ranges start turning bright yellow, they become much more attractive targets for the market.
I’ve also attached the 48-hour liquidation heat map, which gives us twice as much data as the 24-hour view.
On that chart, the liquidity below is still clearly visible, but it is not quite as intense as the upside liquidity range that Bitcoin has just taken out. That matters, because it suggests the market may have already completed one major upside liquidity grab and could now be setting up for a downside sweep.
My current view is that Bitcoin could push down into the $77,000 region, take that liquidity, and then potentially rally back into the $80,000s before another larger move lower.
That is the structure I am watching.
I am starting to think about taking some profit in the not-too-distant future, at least partially. But at the same time, I also have to respect the fact that if this trade really opens up, it could become a massive position.
If Bitcoin continues lower towards the deeper targets, and Ethereum moves towards the $1,900 area with Solana following a similar percentage move, then the profit potential on this position becomes very serious.
That is why I am not rushing the decision.
There is a difference between taking a good trade and cutting a great trade too early.
Right now, the data still supports the downside case. Open interest has been flushed, liquidity is building below, and the market still looks like it wants to test lower levels before any proper recovery.
👍7
REQUEST
Leave a comment on this post like FANIE just did, i like that, thats nice, not often people are nice on the internet, thankyou!
https://x.com/MartiniGuyYT/status/2055550551048208709?s=20
Leave a comment on this post like FANIE just did, i like that, thats nice, not often people are nice on the internet, thankyou!
https://x.com/MartiniGuyYT/status/2055550551048208709?s=20
This is Ethereum open interest, and it is doing almost exactly what it did the other day.
You can see it clearly:
Open interest rises.
Price falls.
Price keeps falling.
Then open interest drops.
What does that tell us?
It suggests a large short position is being opened, putting pressure on the market. Spot buyers are not stepping in strongly enough to absorb it, so price moves lower.
Then, once price has dropped, those shorts start taking some profit, which causes open interest to fall.
But the important part is what happens next: new short positions start entering again, adding fresh downside pressure and pushing the market lower once more.
This is a very clean example of how open interest can help you understand market direction.
When open interest rises while price falls, and spot demand fails to absorb the selling, that is usually not a market I want to be longing.
That is a market I want to be short.
IF YOU START TRADING ON YUBIT IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS YOU WILL KEEP YOUR VIP 2 FOR LIFETIME
Right now when you deposit $100+ they give you a free $1,500 trade, more details on the link
👉 https://www.yubit.com/en-US/register?inviteCode=GNAW 👈
You can see it clearly:
Open interest rises.
Price falls.
Price keeps falling.
Then open interest drops.
What does that tell us?
It suggests a large short position is being opened, putting pressure on the market. Spot buyers are not stepping in strongly enough to absorb it, so price moves lower.
Then, once price has dropped, those shorts start taking some profit, which causes open interest to fall.
But the important part is what happens next: new short positions start entering again, adding fresh downside pressure and pushing the market lower once more.
This is a very clean example of how open interest can help you understand market direction.
When open interest rises while price falls, and spot demand fails to absorb the selling, that is usually not a market I want to be longing.
That is a market I want to be short.
IF YOU START TRADING ON YUBIT IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS YOU WILL KEEP YOUR VIP 2 FOR LIFETIME
Right now when you deposit $100+ they give you a free $1,500 trade, more details on the link
👉 https://www.yubit.com/en-US/register?inviteCode=GNAW 👈
👍6❤2
i have decided to keep holding until the video is posted, i still think more downside is very probably today given the analysis i do in the video
🔥6👍4❤1
it looks like its going to do another liquidity grab lower so if its going to bounce, it will bounce very very soon, if not it will fry for the rest of the day
👍5
WARNING OF IMPERSONATION ATTACKS
Due to the success of the group we are now attracting impersonation scammers
please dont send them money i wont DM you i dont know who you are, im not soliciting anything in DMs i dont really speak to anyone, im busy, please dont be an idiot and if you do want to talk to them, just run them down the garden path, can be fun to waste their time and wind them up
Due to the success of the group we are now attracting impersonation scammers
please dont send them money i wont DM you i dont know who you are, im not soliciting anything in DMs i dont really speak to anyone, im busy, please dont be an idiot and if you do want to talk to them, just run them down the garden path, can be fun to waste their time and wind them up
👍5