So overall, my market outlook today is still bearish.
I’m sorry, but I am still bearish.
Now we need to look at the actual price analysis, because when I look at this chart, I struggle to understand why you would not at least be cautious here.
This is the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, and to me, it looks very bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin looks like it is forming this wider cup-and-handle style structure, and right now it looks like price wants to rotate back towards the bottom of the range, around $78,000.
There is no telling exactly how long we sit inside this range, but the structure is pretty clear.
Yesterday, we pushed into the upper liquidity area around $81,500. We tested it, we ate into some of that liquidity, and now price is starting to come back down again.
The next major liquidity range below is sitting around $77,800.
Who knows exactly how long it takes to get there. Maybe it happens slowly. Maybe it happens quickly. But given how violently Bitcoin has been moving inside this range, it would not surprise me at all if we rotate all the way back down today.
Also, remember: Coinbase news is Coinbase news.
It can create short-term volatility, but it does not usually control the market for a long period of time.
The same applies to the Iran situation. It is volatile, but there is still no clear resolution in sight. Until there is some kind of actual resolution coming to the table, I do not see that changing the bigger market structure much.
The entire bearish thesis breaks down for me if Bitcoin breaks $82,000.
That is the key level.
Above $82,000, you can see it on the chart as clearly as I can: there is very little above price. If Bitcoin breaks through that level cleanly, it can run hard to the upside, and it would probably be a strong move.
That is exactly why I think there is such a big range of liquidity sitting near $82,000 on the liquidation heat map.
It is there to make people think Bitcoin has to go up and take it.
But I am not convinced that is what happens first.
My read is that the liquidity around $82,000 may actually be heavily leveraged short positioning, and the market is trying to make it look like the obvious magnet.
For now, unless Bitcoin breaks $82,000, I still think the downside setup is cleaner.
I’m sorry, but I am still bearish.
Now we need to look at the actual price analysis, because when I look at this chart, I struggle to understand why you would not at least be cautious here.
This is the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, and to me, it looks very bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin looks like it is forming this wider cup-and-handle style structure, and right now it looks like price wants to rotate back towards the bottom of the range, around $78,000.
There is no telling exactly how long we sit inside this range, but the structure is pretty clear.
Yesterday, we pushed into the upper liquidity area around $81,500. We tested it, we ate into some of that liquidity, and now price is starting to come back down again.
The next major liquidity range below is sitting around $77,800.
Who knows exactly how long it takes to get there. Maybe it happens slowly. Maybe it happens quickly. But given how violently Bitcoin has been moving inside this range, it would not surprise me at all if we rotate all the way back down today.
Also, remember: Coinbase news is Coinbase news.
It can create short-term volatility, but it does not usually control the market for a long period of time.
The same applies to the Iran situation. It is volatile, but there is still no clear resolution in sight. Until there is some kind of actual resolution coming to the table, I do not see that changing the bigger market structure much.
The entire bearish thesis breaks down for me if Bitcoin breaks $82,000.
That is the key level.
Above $82,000, you can see it on the chart as clearly as I can: there is very little above price. If Bitcoin breaks through that level cleanly, it can run hard to the upside, and it would probably be a strong move.
That is exactly why I think there is such a big range of liquidity sitting near $82,000 on the liquidation heat map.
It is there to make people think Bitcoin has to go up and take it.
But I am not convinced that is what happens first.
My read is that the liquidity around $82,000 may actually be heavily leveraged short positioning, and the market is trying to make it look like the obvious magnet.
For now, unless Bitcoin breaks $82,000, I still think the downside setup is cleaner.
❤8
I'M PUTTING MY MONEY WHERE MY MOUTH IS, IM NOW SHORT CROSS TRADES $14.5M BUT IM NOT STUPID SO I WILL CLOSE IF IT STARTS GETTING ROUGH AND REENTER LIKE I DID THIS MORNING
PS: Please press the like button on all the posts, i want to see if Telegram likes that, i dont understand the telegram algorithm and im intrigued to know if there even is one, it also makes it more of a community and its nice, thankyou!
PS: Please press the like button on all the posts, i want to see if Telegram likes that, i dont understand the telegram algorithm and im intrigued to know if there even is one, it also makes it more of a community and its nice, thankyou!
❤19🔥6
My concern for people who do not follow what I am saying is simple: most people do not trade for a living.
I do.
When I make a decision, I need conviction behind it.
Earlier, we were sitting at around $160,000 profit, but the trade had not properly played out yet.
Now we are around $200,000 profit, because when price pushed back up, I entered two more large shorts. I did that because I could see the market getting rejected from resistance.
On Solana, the local top was around $93.50. We went short around $92.50, and price is now around $90.50.
On Ethereum, the local top was around $2,316. I went short around $2,278, and price is now around $2,244.
They were not perfect entries, but they were entries taken on the breakdown of structure.
Now that structure is starting to break down.
I do not see the strong buy-the-dip argument here. For me, buying the dip at this point does not make much sense.
The sizing is also important.
A 1% move on my current exposure is roughly a $140,000 swing.
That means even a small move in the right direction becomes very significant. I am not saying we get a 10% move, but with this level of exposure, we do not need anything close to that for the trade to pay properly.
As I said earlier, I am prepared to lose around $100,000 if I am wrong.
But this is not my take-profit zone.
I want to see price move deeper into the range first. The structure is breaking down, and while that remains the case, I am going to keep backing the breakdown.
It may take time.
We will find out soon enough whether the read is right.
I do.
When I make a decision, I need conviction behind it.
Earlier, we were sitting at around $160,000 profit, but the trade had not properly played out yet.
Now we are around $200,000 profit, because when price pushed back up, I entered two more large shorts. I did that because I could see the market getting rejected from resistance.
On Solana, the local top was around $93.50. We went short around $92.50, and price is now around $90.50.
On Ethereum, the local top was around $2,316. I went short around $2,278, and price is now around $2,244.
They were not perfect entries, but they were entries taken on the breakdown of structure.
Now that structure is starting to break down.
I do not see the strong buy-the-dip argument here. For me, buying the dip at this point does not make much sense.
The sizing is also important.
A 1% move on my current exposure is roughly a $140,000 swing.
That means even a small move in the right direction becomes very significant. I am not saying we get a 10% move, but with this level of exposure, we do not need anything close to that for the trade to pay properly.
As I said earlier, I am prepared to lose around $100,000 if I am wrong.
But this is not my take-profit zone.
I want to see price move deeper into the range first. The structure is breaking down, and while that remains the case, I am going to keep backing the breakdown.
It may take time.
We will find out soon enough whether the read is right.
❤12🔥1
Bitcoin is pushing back up after finding support around $80,100.
For now, nothing major has changed. We’re still trading in no man’s land, so I’m waiting for more clarity on the chart before making any bigger decisions.
This is just monitoring now. A lot of monitoring, because the main job is making sure we don’t get rekt while the market chops around.
But I’m not pulling the plug here.
There’s no point closing this just because the trade is moving around. I didn’t enter this for $100K.
I’m in it for the big move.
For now, nothing major has changed. We’re still trading in no man’s land, so I’m waiting for more clarity on the chart before making any bigger decisions.
This is just monitoring now. A lot of monitoring, because the main job is making sure we don’t get rekt while the market chops around.
But I’m not pulling the plug here.
There’s no point closing this just because the trade is moving around. I didn’t enter this for $100K.
I’m in it for the big move.
👍8🔥1
DROPPING TODAYS VIDEO IN 2 MINS https://youtu.be/IkXlDBxBI8U
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I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $14.5M. AM I CRAZY?
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | BITCOIN NEWS | BITCOIN SHORT | CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE
In today’s Bitcoin video, I explain why I am currently $14.5 million short across the crypto market, with a $6 million Bitcoin short, a $6 million Ethereum…
In today’s Bitcoin video, I explain why I am currently $14.5 million short across the crypto market, with a $6 million Bitcoin short, a $6 million Ethereum…
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one day with enough of these crazy trades you will also have a steam and sauna at your house in thailand 🤙
👍10
i said this morning maybe 500k today maybe 1m and so far we are doing good
congrats if you followed
use YUBIT.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/en-US/register?inviteCode=GNAW 👈
congrats if you followed
use YUBIT.
👉 https://www.yubit.com/en-US/register?inviteCode=GNAW 👈
👍3
HAve to say, still i have little intention of cashing out but that might mean a whole weekend of holding this, i will think some more, its not quite $500k and i still think there is a lot of meat on the short side
I Think the market expects support at $78,600 but the game from my perspective is lower, i dont think we show support here, i think we dump hard come 7pm uk time and then we cash around 77-76k