Having said all of this, the same definitely does not apply to Ethereum.
Ethereum looks much cleaner to me.
The current price is around $2,260, and from the liquidity setup, it looks like a move down towards $2,230 is very realistic. That is only around a $30 drop, but with the position sizing, that is a meaningful move.
On the 24-hour Ethereum liquidation heat map, we can already see liquidity sitting below price.
Then, when we start looking at the wider charts, Ethereum looks pretty liquidity locked on the three-day heat map as well.
The important point is this:
As price starts moving into that lower range, those yellow liquidity zones can become even brighter. More liquidity can build as traders try to defend their positions, add leverage, or avoid liquidation.
That is the zone we are waiting for.
Right now, nobody has fully tipped the balance yet. The market is still holding the range. But when this move starts, I think it could happen very quickly.
There probably will not be much time to react.
That is why I am positioned now.
I could be very wrong, or I could be very right. But from the way I am reading the data, I still think the odds are in my favour.
I would put it around 75/25 in favour of the downside move.
Ethereum looks much cleaner to me.
The current price is around $2,260, and from the liquidity setup, it looks like a move down towards $2,230 is very realistic. That is only around a $30 drop, but with the position sizing, that is a meaningful move.
On the 24-hour Ethereum liquidation heat map, we can already see liquidity sitting below price.
Then, when we start looking at the wider charts, Ethereum looks pretty liquidity locked on the three-day heat map as well.
The important point is this:
As price starts moving into that lower range, those yellow liquidity zones can become even brighter. More liquidity can build as traders try to defend their positions, add leverage, or avoid liquidation.
That is the zone we are waiting for.
Right now, nobody has fully tipped the balance yet. The market is still holding the range. But when this move starts, I think it could happen very quickly.
There probably will not be much time to react.
That is why I am positioned now.
I could be very wrong, or I could be very right. But from the way I am reading the data, I still think the odds are in my favour.
I would put it around 75/25 in favour of the downside move.
👍3❤1
Again, look at Ethereum here, and especially look at the open interest.
It is crazy.
I have drawn lines between the key levels on the chart so you can see exactly where everything lines up. Before the larger moves, we can see clear changes in Ethereum open interest, and that is the important part of this analysis.
In recent days, when price has been moving down, we have seen open interest moving up.
That tells me somebody is increasing exposure into the move. Given the direction of price, that looks like short exposure being added.
Then, when price has bounced back up, we have seen open interest moving down.
That means exposure is being reduced. It could be shorts closing, but in this context, I think it is more likely people are reducing long exposure and taking money off the market.
So the read is fairly simple:
Short exposure is being built when price moves down.
Then, when price bounces, long exposure is being reduced and people are using the bounce to exit.
That is not bullish.
That tells me money is coming out of the market, not aggressively coming into it.
You can see I have lined up the levels on the chart so you can compare it yourself and validate what I am saying here. This is not just a random feeling. The price action and the open interest are lining up very clearly.
To me, this is a significant piece of analysis.
This is the kind of setup where you need conviction to hold the trade, because the move probably will not feel comfortable before it happens. But if the read is right, the downside move can come very quickly.
Look at the spike Ethereum had the other day from around $2,251 to $2,315.
From that point, open interest started moving down again.
That tells me people were not aggressively adding new exposure into the bounce. They were taking exposure off. Again, that looks like long exposure being reduced into strength.
Meanwhile, a large amount of short exposure appears to have already been built over the past two or three days.
That is why I think Ethereum is one of the cleaner setups here.
The market is being controlled by larger players at this point, not retail. It is also being driven mainly by futures volume, not spot volume, just like I showed earlier in the Bitcoin analysis.
And next, I will show the same thing with Ethereum volume as well.
It is crazy.
I have drawn lines between the key levels on the chart so you can see exactly where everything lines up. Before the larger moves, we can see clear changes in Ethereum open interest, and that is the important part of this analysis.
In recent days, when price has been moving down, we have seen open interest moving up.
That tells me somebody is increasing exposure into the move. Given the direction of price, that looks like short exposure being added.
Then, when price has bounced back up, we have seen open interest moving down.
That means exposure is being reduced. It could be shorts closing, but in this context, I think it is more likely people are reducing long exposure and taking money off the market.
So the read is fairly simple:
Short exposure is being built when price moves down.
Then, when price bounces, long exposure is being reduced and people are using the bounce to exit.
That is not bullish.
That tells me money is coming out of the market, not aggressively coming into it.
You can see I have lined up the levels on the chart so you can compare it yourself and validate what I am saying here. This is not just a random feeling. The price action and the open interest are lining up very clearly.
To me, this is a significant piece of analysis.
This is the kind of setup where you need conviction to hold the trade, because the move probably will not feel comfortable before it happens. But if the read is right, the downside move can come very quickly.
Look at the spike Ethereum had the other day from around $2,251 to $2,315.
From that point, open interest started moving down again.
That tells me people were not aggressively adding new exposure into the bounce. They were taking exposure off. Again, that looks like long exposure being reduced into strength.
Meanwhile, a large amount of short exposure appears to have already been built over the past two or three days.
That is why I think Ethereum is one of the cleaner setups here.
The market is being controlled by larger players at this point, not retail. It is also being driven mainly by futures volume, not spot volume, just like I showed earlier in the Bitcoin analysis.
And next, I will show the same thing with Ethereum volume as well.
👍4
Next, I have put on the Ethereum price versus volume history, focused purely on spot volume.
The other chart I have attached is the Ethereum volume distribution, and that shows something very important: 94.76% of Ethereum volume is currently futures-driven.
That is a huge portion of the market.
It means spot volume has very little influence right now on the actual value of the token. Ethereum is being driven mainly by futures positioning, not real spot accumulation.
When we look at spot volume over time, we can see a general decline in demand for the underlying asset.
That matters.
If fewer people are buying the underlying asset, it means Ethereum is not as loved, not as wanted, and less likely to perform strongly over a longer period unless that spot demand returns.
That is where we currently stand.
We can also see that on the futures taker side, there is more taker selling than taker buying. Again, that indicates bearish demand.
Then on the spot taker side, the picture is even more bearish.
People are exiting spot more than they are entering it.
Even if the difference looks small, it still matters. If you have 51% selling versus 49% buying, that is a 2% imbalance, and in any major market, that is significant.
That shows selling pressure.
That shows people exiting.
Whether that is forced selling because the economy is getting harder, or simply people reducing exposure, the result is the same: money is not aggressively flowing into Ethereum spot right now.
The only real argument for the price continuing higher here is that bigger players still have more liquidity than smaller players.
But even then, rich people do not usually force the market higher randomly. More often, they accumulate on the way down, then push the narrative later through marketing and momentum.
Right now, I do not think we are seeing enough of that.
Yes, there has been some marketing around altcoins recently. But to me, that whole altcoin phase looks like it may be cooling off soon.
The AI narrative, in particular, looks like it is starting to lose momentum.
Maybe I am wrong.
But from the data in front of me, I do not think I am.
The other chart I have attached is the Ethereum volume distribution, and that shows something very important: 94.76% of Ethereum volume is currently futures-driven.
That is a huge portion of the market.
It means spot volume has very little influence right now on the actual value of the token. Ethereum is being driven mainly by futures positioning, not real spot accumulation.
When we look at spot volume over time, we can see a general decline in demand for the underlying asset.
That matters.
If fewer people are buying the underlying asset, it means Ethereum is not as loved, not as wanted, and less likely to perform strongly over a longer period unless that spot demand returns.
That is where we currently stand.
We can also see that on the futures taker side, there is more taker selling than taker buying. Again, that indicates bearish demand.
Then on the spot taker side, the picture is even more bearish.
People are exiting spot more than they are entering it.
Even if the difference looks small, it still matters. If you have 51% selling versus 49% buying, that is a 2% imbalance, and in any major market, that is significant.
That shows selling pressure.
That shows people exiting.
Whether that is forced selling because the economy is getting harder, or simply people reducing exposure, the result is the same: money is not aggressively flowing into Ethereum spot right now.
The only real argument for the price continuing higher here is that bigger players still have more liquidity than smaller players.
But even then, rich people do not usually force the market higher randomly. More often, they accumulate on the way down, then push the narrative later through marketing and momentum.
Right now, I do not think we are seeing enough of that.
Yes, there has been some marketing around altcoins recently. But to me, that whole altcoin phase looks like it may be cooling off soon.
The AI narrative, in particular, looks like it is starting to lose momentum.
Maybe I am wrong.
But from the data in front of me, I do not think I am.
❤4👍2
So overall, my market outlook today is still bearish.
I’m sorry, but I am still bearish.
Now we need to look at the actual price analysis, because when I look at this chart, I struggle to understand why you would not at least be cautious here.
This is the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, and to me, it looks very bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin looks like it is forming this wider cup-and-handle style structure, and right now it looks like price wants to rotate back towards the bottom of the range, around $78,000.
There is no telling exactly how long we sit inside this range, but the structure is pretty clear.
Yesterday, we pushed into the upper liquidity area around $81,500. We tested it, we ate into some of that liquidity, and now price is starting to come back down again.
The next major liquidity range below is sitting around $77,800.
Who knows exactly how long it takes to get there. Maybe it happens slowly. Maybe it happens quickly. But given how violently Bitcoin has been moving inside this range, it would not surprise me at all if we rotate all the way back down today.
Also, remember: Coinbase news is Coinbase news.
It can create short-term volatility, but it does not usually control the market for a long period of time.
The same applies to the Iran situation. It is volatile, but there is still no clear resolution in sight. Until there is some kind of actual resolution coming to the table, I do not see that changing the bigger market structure much.
The entire bearish thesis breaks down for me if Bitcoin breaks $82,000.
That is the key level.
Above $82,000, you can see it on the chart as clearly as I can: there is very little above price. If Bitcoin breaks through that level cleanly, it can run hard to the upside, and it would probably be a strong move.
That is exactly why I think there is such a big range of liquidity sitting near $82,000 on the liquidation heat map.
It is there to make people think Bitcoin has to go up and take it.
But I am not convinced that is what happens first.
My read is that the liquidity around $82,000 may actually be heavily leveraged short positioning, and the market is trying to make it look like the obvious magnet.
For now, unless Bitcoin breaks $82,000, I still think the downside setup is cleaner.
I’m sorry, but I am still bearish.
Now we need to look at the actual price analysis, because when I look at this chart, I struggle to understand why you would not at least be cautious here.
This is the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, and to me, it looks very bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin looks like it is forming this wider cup-and-handle style structure, and right now it looks like price wants to rotate back towards the bottom of the range, around $78,000.
There is no telling exactly how long we sit inside this range, but the structure is pretty clear.
Yesterday, we pushed into the upper liquidity area around $81,500. We tested it, we ate into some of that liquidity, and now price is starting to come back down again.
The next major liquidity range below is sitting around $77,800.
Who knows exactly how long it takes to get there. Maybe it happens slowly. Maybe it happens quickly. But given how violently Bitcoin has been moving inside this range, it would not surprise me at all if we rotate all the way back down today.
Also, remember: Coinbase news is Coinbase news.
It can create short-term volatility, but it does not usually control the market for a long period of time.
The same applies to the Iran situation. It is volatile, but there is still no clear resolution in sight. Until there is some kind of actual resolution coming to the table, I do not see that changing the bigger market structure much.
The entire bearish thesis breaks down for me if Bitcoin breaks $82,000.
That is the key level.
Above $82,000, you can see it on the chart as clearly as I can: there is very little above price. If Bitcoin breaks through that level cleanly, it can run hard to the upside, and it would probably be a strong move.
That is exactly why I think there is such a big range of liquidity sitting near $82,000 on the liquidation heat map.
It is there to make people think Bitcoin has to go up and take it.
But I am not convinced that is what happens first.
My read is that the liquidity around $82,000 may actually be heavily leveraged short positioning, and the market is trying to make it look like the obvious magnet.
For now, unless Bitcoin breaks $82,000, I still think the downside setup is cleaner.
❤8
I'M PUTTING MY MONEY WHERE MY MOUTH IS, IM NOW SHORT CROSS TRADES $14.5M BUT IM NOT STUPID SO I WILL CLOSE IF IT STARTS GETTING ROUGH AND REENTER LIKE I DID THIS MORNING
PS: Please press the like button on all the posts, i want to see if Telegram likes that, i dont understand the telegram algorithm and im intrigued to know if there even is one, it also makes it more of a community and its nice, thankyou!
PS: Please press the like button on all the posts, i want to see if Telegram likes that, i dont understand the telegram algorithm and im intrigued to know if there even is one, it also makes it more of a community and its nice, thankyou!
❤19🔥6
My concern for people who do not follow what I am saying is simple: most people do not trade for a living.
I do.
When I make a decision, I need conviction behind it.
Earlier, we were sitting at around $160,000 profit, but the trade had not properly played out yet.
Now we are around $200,000 profit, because when price pushed back up, I entered two more large shorts. I did that because I could see the market getting rejected from resistance.
On Solana, the local top was around $93.50. We went short around $92.50, and price is now around $90.50.
On Ethereum, the local top was around $2,316. I went short around $2,278, and price is now around $2,244.
They were not perfect entries, but they were entries taken on the breakdown of structure.
Now that structure is starting to break down.
I do not see the strong buy-the-dip argument here. For me, buying the dip at this point does not make much sense.
The sizing is also important.
A 1% move on my current exposure is roughly a $140,000 swing.
That means even a small move in the right direction becomes very significant. I am not saying we get a 10% move, but with this level of exposure, we do not need anything close to that for the trade to pay properly.
As I said earlier, I am prepared to lose around $100,000 if I am wrong.
But this is not my take-profit zone.
I want to see price move deeper into the range first. The structure is breaking down, and while that remains the case, I am going to keep backing the breakdown.
It may take time.
We will find out soon enough whether the read is right.
I do.
When I make a decision, I need conviction behind it.
Earlier, we were sitting at around $160,000 profit, but the trade had not properly played out yet.
Now we are around $200,000 profit, because when price pushed back up, I entered two more large shorts. I did that because I could see the market getting rejected from resistance.
On Solana, the local top was around $93.50. We went short around $92.50, and price is now around $90.50.
On Ethereum, the local top was around $2,316. I went short around $2,278, and price is now around $2,244.
They were not perfect entries, but they were entries taken on the breakdown of structure.
Now that structure is starting to break down.
I do not see the strong buy-the-dip argument here. For me, buying the dip at this point does not make much sense.
The sizing is also important.
A 1% move on my current exposure is roughly a $140,000 swing.
That means even a small move in the right direction becomes very significant. I am not saying we get a 10% move, but with this level of exposure, we do not need anything close to that for the trade to pay properly.
As I said earlier, I am prepared to lose around $100,000 if I am wrong.
But this is not my take-profit zone.
I want to see price move deeper into the range first. The structure is breaking down, and while that remains the case, I am going to keep backing the breakdown.
It may take time.
We will find out soon enough whether the read is right.
❤12🔥1
Bitcoin is pushing back up after finding support around $80,100.
For now, nothing major has changed. We’re still trading in no man’s land, so I’m waiting for more clarity on the chart before making any bigger decisions.
This is just monitoring now. A lot of monitoring, because the main job is making sure we don’t get rekt while the market chops around.
But I’m not pulling the plug here.
There’s no point closing this just because the trade is moving around. I didn’t enter this for $100K.
I’m in it for the big move.
For now, nothing major has changed. We’re still trading in no man’s land, so I’m waiting for more clarity on the chart before making any bigger decisions.
This is just monitoring now. A lot of monitoring, because the main job is making sure we don’t get rekt while the market chops around.
But I’m not pulling the plug here.
There’s no point closing this just because the trade is moving around. I didn’t enter this for $100K.
I’m in it for the big move.
👍8🔥1
DROPPING TODAYS VIDEO IN 2 MINS https://youtu.be/IkXlDBxBI8U
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I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $14.5M. AM I CRAZY?
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | BITCOIN NEWS | BITCOIN SHORT | CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE
In today’s Bitcoin video, I explain why I am currently $14.5 million short across the crypto market, with a $6 million Bitcoin short, a $6 million Ethereum…
In today’s Bitcoin video, I explain why I am currently $14.5 million short across the crypto market, with a $6 million Bitcoin short, a $6 million Ethereum…