It is very easy to get emotional when the numbers get big.
But that is exactly why position sizing, conviction, and risk management matter.
If the volatility makes you panic, then this is not the part of the market you should be playing in.
Big trades come with big swings. That is the game.
This is where it gets genuinely interesting.
The question now is simple: how confident am I, and do I sleep with this trade open?
I still believe the downside case is there. I still think the data supports it. Right now, Bitcoin is taking out an area of liquidity that had already started to show up on the heat map, but at the same time, we have now formed a much larger liquidity zone below.
I’ll attach the liquidation heat map to this post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
We have taken out a lot of the upside range now, but that does not mean we cannot push higher first. Around $82,000 is absolutely in play from here, and the next hour or so probably decides whether this is a trim, a cut, or a hold.
So for now, it is a waiting job.
If the position reaches around minus $100,000, I will close it, take the loss, and try again. That is the risk I accepted when I opened the trade.
I am willing to lose in order to win here.
The obvious question is: why didn’t I close when I was up $150,000?
The answer is because this is a $6 million position. $150,000 looks like a lot of money on the screen, but relative to the size of the trade, it was not my target. I trade by percentages and structure, not by getting emotional over the number.
On the surface, taking the profit probably looked like the easy decision. But I am not trying to play this as a quick in-and-out trade. I am trying to build a larger position that I can hold if the market structure breaks down properly.
If Bitcoin rolls over and starts moving towards the $60,000 range, a $6 million short can turn into a seven-figure trade.
That is the opportunity I am positioning for.
But that is exactly why position sizing, conviction, and risk management matter.
If the volatility makes you panic, then this is not the part of the market you should be playing in.
Big trades come with big swings. That is the game.
This is where it gets genuinely interesting.
The question now is simple: how confident am I, and do I sleep with this trade open?
I still believe the downside case is there. I still think the data supports it. Right now, Bitcoin is taking out an area of liquidity that had already started to show up on the heat map, but at the same time, we have now formed a much larger liquidity zone below.
I’ll attach the liquidation heat map to this post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
We have taken out a lot of the upside range now, but that does not mean we cannot push higher first. Around $82,000 is absolutely in play from here, and the next hour or so probably decides whether this is a trim, a cut, or a hold.
So for now, it is a waiting job.
If the position reaches around minus $100,000, I will close it, take the loss, and try again. That is the risk I accepted when I opened the trade.
I am willing to lose in order to win here.
The obvious question is: why didn’t I close when I was up $150,000?
The answer is because this is a $6 million position. $150,000 looks like a lot of money on the screen, but relative to the size of the trade, it was not my target. I trade by percentages and structure, not by getting emotional over the number.
On the surface, taking the profit probably looked like the easy decision. But I am not trying to play this as a quick in-and-out trade. I am trying to build a larger position that I can hold if the market structure breaks down properly.
If Bitcoin rolls over and starts moving towards the $60,000 range, a $6 million short can turn into a seven-figure trade.
That is the opportunity I am positioning for.
👍7❤5🔥4
IM BACK IN
MORNING UPDATE PENDING
The intel trade i took yesterday on a AMA to show people you can trade stocks also on Yubit but i fell asleep with it open from being tired
If im right i might make $1m today
MORNING UPDATE PENDING
The intel trade i took yesterday on a AMA to show people you can trade stocks also on Yubit but i fell asleep with it open from being tired
If im right i might make $1m today
❤3
Good morning everyone, and welcome back to the Chart Advantage crypto group.
Today is going to be interesting.
Right now, I am heavily short across the market. Combined, the positions add up to around $14.5 million in short exposure on a $2 million account, which puts me at roughly 7.5x cross leverage.
That means there is not much room for error. It also means I am backing the read.
Today is Friday. If this trade is going to play out properly, I think today is the day we see it. I am still prepared to lose around $100,000 on this idea if I am wrong, and I am comfortable with that risk.
I have attached updates for all the trades I am currently in, so you can see the entries, sizing, and overall positioning. I will also post the criteria for where I would take the loss, and where I would look to take profit.
The reason I am staying with this is simple: I still think there is meat on the downside.
We are still getting rejected from the same range that everyone expected the market to break through cleanly. Instead, the market is struggling there. Until that changes, my view remains the same.
Now, some people will look at this and call it financially degenerate. Fair enough. It is aggressive.
But the maths is also very clear.
On a $2 million account, 1% is $20,000. A 10% account move is $200,000. With this level of exposure, even a relatively small move in the right direction can produce a very large result.
If the market gives us a clean 2% move down today, the combined profit across these positions could be very significant. Depending on how each position moves, that could be the kind of trade where I simply take the win and close it.
That is what I am hunting here.
I am not doing this because I want to gamble blindly. I am doing it because I think I have one of the cleaner reads on the market that I have had in a while. When that happens, I think it makes sense to back the trade properly, while still having a defined loss point.
I know the risk. I am prepared to take it.
Let’s see if the market pays us today.
Today is going to be interesting.
Right now, I am heavily short across the market. Combined, the positions add up to around $14.5 million in short exposure on a $2 million account, which puts me at roughly 7.5x cross leverage.
That means there is not much room for error. It also means I am backing the read.
Today is Friday. If this trade is going to play out properly, I think today is the day we see it. I am still prepared to lose around $100,000 on this idea if I am wrong, and I am comfortable with that risk.
I have attached updates for all the trades I am currently in, so you can see the entries, sizing, and overall positioning. I will also post the criteria for where I would take the loss, and where I would look to take profit.
The reason I am staying with this is simple: I still think there is meat on the downside.
We are still getting rejected from the same range that everyone expected the market to break through cleanly. Instead, the market is struggling there. Until that changes, my view remains the same.
Now, some people will look at this and call it financially degenerate. Fair enough. It is aggressive.
But the maths is also very clear.
On a $2 million account, 1% is $20,000. A 10% account move is $200,000. With this level of exposure, even a relatively small move in the right direction can produce a very large result.
If the market gives us a clean 2% move down today, the combined profit across these positions could be very significant. Depending on how each position moves, that could be the kind of trade where I simply take the win and close it.
That is what I am hunting here.
I am not doing this because I want to gamble blindly. I am doing it because I think I have one of the cleaner reads on the market that I have had in a while. When that happens, I think it makes sense to back the trade properly, while still having a defined loss point.
I know the risk. I am prepared to take it.
Let’s see if the market pays us today.
❤6
Starting with the Bitcoin spot ETF data.
Yesterday, we saw some buying from the ETFs. IBIT, which is BlackRock, FBTC, which is Fidelity, HODL, which is VanEck, BTC, which is Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust, and MSBT, which is Morgan Stanley, all increased their Bitcoin holdings.
Combined, that added up to around 1,660 Bitcoin acquired by the ETFs.
Now, that sounds positive on the surface, and it is technically an inflow. But the important point here is context.
If you look at the second chart I’ve attached, which shows total Bitcoin spot ETF flows, you can see that the most recent green bar is relatively small compared with the kind of ETF demand we were seeing during the stronger part of the bull cycle.
So yes, Bitcoin ETFs bought yesterday.
But no, this is not the same kind of aggressive ETF accumulation that previously helped drive the market higher.
That distinction matters.
Then, if you look at the Bitcoin ETF AUM chart I’ve also attached, the broader trend is still not particularly strong. A small uptick is still just a small uptick within what looks like a wider decline.
AUM can move for two reasons: actual inflows and outflows, but also the price of Bitcoin itself. So I’m not saying this is purely redemption-driven. But either way, the message is the same: ETF demand is not currently expanding in the way it was during the clean bull phase.
That is why I am not treating yesterday’s ETF buying as a major bullish signal.
To me, it looks more like a small bounce in demand inside a broader environment where liquidity is still tight.
And that fits the bigger macro picture.
When liquidity gets squeezed, people sell liquid assets. They do not aggressively save into risk assets when the economy is getting harder to compete in. They raise cash. They reduce exposure. They take less risk.
So while the ETF inflow is worth noting, I do not think it invalidates the short thesis.
If anything, the lack of serious follow-through from ETF buyers supports the idea that Bitcoin is still vulnerable here.
Yesterday, we saw some buying from the ETFs. IBIT, which is BlackRock, FBTC, which is Fidelity, HODL, which is VanEck, BTC, which is Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust, and MSBT, which is Morgan Stanley, all increased their Bitcoin holdings.
Combined, that added up to around 1,660 Bitcoin acquired by the ETFs.
Now, that sounds positive on the surface, and it is technically an inflow. But the important point here is context.
If you look at the second chart I’ve attached, which shows total Bitcoin spot ETF flows, you can see that the most recent green bar is relatively small compared with the kind of ETF demand we were seeing during the stronger part of the bull cycle.
So yes, Bitcoin ETFs bought yesterday.
But no, this is not the same kind of aggressive ETF accumulation that previously helped drive the market higher.
That distinction matters.
Then, if you look at the Bitcoin ETF AUM chart I’ve also attached, the broader trend is still not particularly strong. A small uptick is still just a small uptick within what looks like a wider decline.
AUM can move for two reasons: actual inflows and outflows, but also the price of Bitcoin itself. So I’m not saying this is purely redemption-driven. But either way, the message is the same: ETF demand is not currently expanding in the way it was during the clean bull phase.
That is why I am not treating yesterday’s ETF buying as a major bullish signal.
To me, it looks more like a small bounce in demand inside a broader environment where liquidity is still tight.
And that fits the bigger macro picture.
When liquidity gets squeezed, people sell liquid assets. They do not aggressively save into risk assets when the economy is getting harder to compete in. They raise cash. They reduce exposure. They take less risk.
So while the ETF inflow is worth noting, I do not think it invalidates the short thesis.
If anything, the lack of serious follow-through from ETF buyers supports the idea that Bitcoin is still vulnerable here.
❤4
Now looking at funding rates.
Across the exchanges, funding is still generally negative, but the important point is that it is rising. On the USDT contracts especially, funding is moving back towards neutral, which tells us more traders are starting to open long positions again.
That matters because it changes the risk profile.
When funding is deeply negative, it can sometimes create pressure for an upside squeeze because too many people are positioned short. But when funding starts moving back towards neutral or positive after a bounce, that tells me longs are coming back into the market.
That is where I start paying attention.
On the shorter-term Bitcoin OI-weighted funding chart, you can see that negative funding has often appeared either after a big move, or while price is under pressure. But when we zoom out to the 8-hour Bitcoin OI-weighted funding chart, the bigger picture becomes more useful.
Funding has been ticking higher again.
Recently, when funding has flipped from negative back towards positive, price has generally struggled afterwards. It shows the market moving from forced bearish positioning back into long exposure, and that is usually when the next downside move can begin if the spot bid is not strong enough.
The longer-term chart from August through to today supports that view as well.
When OI-weighted funding rolls over and starts heading lower, price generally weakens with it. When funding gets too positive after a relief bounce, the market often struggles to continue higher.
So for me, this is another bearish data point.
It is not a standalone reason to be short, but it supports the wider thesis. Funding is no longer giving me a strong short-squeeze warning. It is moving back towards neutral, longs are stepping back in, and price is still failing around the range everyone expected it to break through.
That is exactly the kind of setup where I want to stay cautious on the market and continue backing the downside unless the data changes.
Across the exchanges, funding is still generally negative, but the important point is that it is rising. On the USDT contracts especially, funding is moving back towards neutral, which tells us more traders are starting to open long positions again.
That matters because it changes the risk profile.
When funding is deeply negative, it can sometimes create pressure for an upside squeeze because too many people are positioned short. But when funding starts moving back towards neutral or positive after a bounce, that tells me longs are coming back into the market.
That is where I start paying attention.
On the shorter-term Bitcoin OI-weighted funding chart, you can see that negative funding has often appeared either after a big move, or while price is under pressure. But when we zoom out to the 8-hour Bitcoin OI-weighted funding chart, the bigger picture becomes more useful.
Funding has been ticking higher again.
Recently, when funding has flipped from negative back towards positive, price has generally struggled afterwards. It shows the market moving from forced bearish positioning back into long exposure, and that is usually when the next downside move can begin if the spot bid is not strong enough.
The longer-term chart from August through to today supports that view as well.
When OI-weighted funding rolls over and starts heading lower, price generally weakens with it. When funding gets too positive after a relief bounce, the market often struggles to continue higher.
So for me, this is another bearish data point.
It is not a standalone reason to be short, but it supports the wider thesis. Funding is no longer giving me a strong short-squeeze warning. It is moving back towards neutral, longs are stepping back in, and price is still failing around the range everyone expected it to break through.
That is exactly the kind of setup where I want to stay cautious on the market and continue backing the downside unless the data changes.
❤4
The next chart is Bitcoin spot volume.
What we can see here is a clear declining trend in spot volume. That matters because spot demand is the cleanest form of real buying pressure in the market.
Right now, that demand is not strong.
The second chart makes the point even clearer. Over the past 30 days, spot volume has accounted for only around 7% of total crypto volume, while futures volume has accounted for roughly 93%.
That is not a healthy bull market structure.
It tells us the market is still being driven mainly by leverage, positioning, and emotion rather than strong spot accumulation. When the futures market is completely dominating volume like this, price can move quickly, but it is also more fragile.
In stronger bull market conditions, I would expect that ratio to look more balanced. Something closer to 85% futures / 15% spot would be a healthier structure. Right now, we are closer to 93% futures / 7% spot, and that is not great.
Until spot volume returns properly, I find it hard to call this a clean bullish environment.
The other thing worth pointing out is the taker buy versus taker sell data.
Futures taker buy and futures taker sell are roughly even. Spot taker buy and spot taker sell are also roughly even. But on both sides, there is still slightly more taker selling than taker buying.
That shows a small but important bias.
It means the market is still leaning more towards people wanting to get out rather than people aggressively wanting to get in.
Again, this is not a standalone reason to be short. But when you combine declining spot volume, futures-dominated liquidity, weak ETF follow-through, and funding moving back towards neutral, the picture is still not especially bullish.
For me, this is another data point supporting the downside thesis.
What we can see here is a clear declining trend in spot volume. That matters because spot demand is the cleanest form of real buying pressure in the market.
Right now, that demand is not strong.
The second chart makes the point even clearer. Over the past 30 days, spot volume has accounted for only around 7% of total crypto volume, while futures volume has accounted for roughly 93%.
That is not a healthy bull market structure.
It tells us the market is still being driven mainly by leverage, positioning, and emotion rather than strong spot accumulation. When the futures market is completely dominating volume like this, price can move quickly, but it is also more fragile.
In stronger bull market conditions, I would expect that ratio to look more balanced. Something closer to 85% futures / 15% spot would be a healthier structure. Right now, we are closer to 93% futures / 7% spot, and that is not great.
Until spot volume returns properly, I find it hard to call this a clean bullish environment.
The other thing worth pointing out is the taker buy versus taker sell data.
Futures taker buy and futures taker sell are roughly even. Spot taker buy and spot taker sell are also roughly even. But on both sides, there is still slightly more taker selling than taker buying.
That shows a small but important bias.
It means the market is still leaning more towards people wanting to get out rather than people aggressively wanting to get in.
Again, this is not a standalone reason to be short. But when you combine declining spot volume, futures-dominated liquidity, weak ETF follow-through, and funding moving back towards neutral, the picture is still not especially bullish.
For me, this is another data point supporting the downside thesis.
❤4
Following on from this, we now have today’s 24-hour Bitcoin liquidation heat map.
What we can see here is a large range of liquidity sitting just above the current Bitcoin price, starting around $82,000.
We can also see another area building down around $78,000, and that zone is getting more and more yellow, which means liquidity is continuing to build there.
Right now, Bitcoin is also hugging the downside liquidity around $80,700 and below.
There may not be as much liquidity there compared with the upside, but price is starting to eat into it. It is pressing into that area. It looks like the market is starting to feel those liquidations and is being pulled towards them.
That supports the idea that there is still downside pressure in the short term.
Then, when we look at the one-month Bitcoin liquidation heat map, the picture becomes less clear. We are back in more of a no man’s land zone, where there is not as much obvious direction from the liquidity map.
I have attached that chart as well.
Then on the six-month Bitcoin liquidation heat map, we can see something important: there is far more liquidity above price than below.
That goes against the clean bear case.
So while the short-term heat map still supports the idea of Bitcoin pressing lower, the longer-term heat map tells us we cannot just ignore the upside risk.
This is why we have to stay open-minded here.
Yes, I still think there is meat on the downside. But there is also a clear liquidity argument for a move higher if the market decides to hunt the bigger upside pools first.
So we cannot just close our eyes and cross our fingers.
The 24-hour data supports the short-term downside thesis, but the six-month data is the reason I still need to manage the trade carefully.
What we can see here is a large range of liquidity sitting just above the current Bitcoin price, starting around $82,000.
We can also see another area building down around $78,000, and that zone is getting more and more yellow, which means liquidity is continuing to build there.
Right now, Bitcoin is also hugging the downside liquidity around $80,700 and below.
There may not be as much liquidity there compared with the upside, but price is starting to eat into it. It is pressing into that area. It looks like the market is starting to feel those liquidations and is being pulled towards them.
That supports the idea that there is still downside pressure in the short term.
Then, when we look at the one-month Bitcoin liquidation heat map, the picture becomes less clear. We are back in more of a no man’s land zone, where there is not as much obvious direction from the liquidity map.
I have attached that chart as well.
Then on the six-month Bitcoin liquidation heat map, we can see something important: there is far more liquidity above price than below.
That goes against the clean bear case.
So while the short-term heat map still supports the idea of Bitcoin pressing lower, the longer-term heat map tells us we cannot just ignore the upside risk.
This is why we have to stay open-minded here.
Yes, I still think there is meat on the downside. But there is also a clear liquidity argument for a move higher if the market decides to hunt the bigger upside pools first.
So we cannot just close our eyes and cross our fingers.
The 24-hour data supports the short-term downside thesis, but the six-month data is the reason I still need to manage the trade carefully.
❤6
Having said all of this, the same definitely does not apply to Ethereum.
Ethereum looks much cleaner to me.
The current price is around $2,260, and from the liquidity setup, it looks like a move down towards $2,230 is very realistic. That is only around a $30 drop, but with the position sizing, that is a meaningful move.
On the 24-hour Ethereum liquidation heat map, we can already see liquidity sitting below price.
Then, when we start looking at the wider charts, Ethereum looks pretty liquidity locked on the three-day heat map as well.
The important point is this:
As price starts moving into that lower range, those yellow liquidity zones can become even brighter. More liquidity can build as traders try to defend their positions, add leverage, or avoid liquidation.
That is the zone we are waiting for.
Right now, nobody has fully tipped the balance yet. The market is still holding the range. But when this move starts, I think it could happen very quickly.
There probably will not be much time to react.
That is why I am positioned now.
I could be very wrong, or I could be very right. But from the way I am reading the data, I still think the odds are in my favour.
I would put it around 75/25 in favour of the downside move.
Ethereum looks much cleaner to me.
The current price is around $2,260, and from the liquidity setup, it looks like a move down towards $2,230 is very realistic. That is only around a $30 drop, but with the position sizing, that is a meaningful move.
On the 24-hour Ethereum liquidation heat map, we can already see liquidity sitting below price.
Then, when we start looking at the wider charts, Ethereum looks pretty liquidity locked on the three-day heat map as well.
The important point is this:
As price starts moving into that lower range, those yellow liquidity zones can become even brighter. More liquidity can build as traders try to defend their positions, add leverage, or avoid liquidation.
That is the zone we are waiting for.
Right now, nobody has fully tipped the balance yet. The market is still holding the range. But when this move starts, I think it could happen very quickly.
There probably will not be much time to react.
That is why I am positioned now.
I could be very wrong, or I could be very right. But from the way I am reading the data, I still think the odds are in my favour.
I would put it around 75/25 in favour of the downside move.
👍3❤1