I hope you’ve got taxi fare, because we just did a full round trip.
This is today’s evening traders update.
Bitcoin has aggressively rallied back to the upside this afternoon and, in the process, has wiped out most of the open profit on the short position.
The move appears to be driven largely by the China-related headlines, and to be fair, we did expect some kind of bounce today. What I did not expect was for price to return to these levels this quickly.
Bitcoin is now making a serious attempt at a breakout. The key level was around $80,700, and we are now trading around $81,000, which is also roughly my entry.
As I said earlier, I am willing to tolerate some drawdown on this trade. The maximum loss I am prepared to take here is around $100,000. If it reaches that point, I will close the position, accept the loss, and reassess.
It is a massive swing back to the upside. No question about that. But I still think the downside setup remains more likely, and this move looks more like a short squeeze or bull trap than the start of a clean sustained breakout.
I could be wrong. If I am, it costs me $100,000, and we move on.
This is today’s evening traders update.
Bitcoin has aggressively rallied back to the upside this afternoon and, in the process, has wiped out most of the open profit on the short position.
The move appears to be driven largely by the China-related headlines, and to be fair, we did expect some kind of bounce today. What I did not expect was for price to return to these levels this quickly.
Bitcoin is now making a serious attempt at a breakout. The key level was around $80,700, and we are now trading around $81,000, which is also roughly my entry.
As I said earlier, I am willing to tolerate some drawdown on this trade. The maximum loss I am prepared to take here is around $100,000. If it reaches that point, I will close the position, accept the loss, and reassess.
It is a massive swing back to the upside. No question about that. But I still think the downside setup remains more likely, and this move looks more like a short squeeze or bull trap than the start of a clean sustained breakout.
I could be wrong. If I am, it costs me $100,000, and we move on.
🤯2❤1
I do accept that the upside is now very much in play.
For Ethereum, the key level is $2,292. If ETH breaks above that level and, more importantly, closes an hourly candle above it, then I probably do not want to hold too much size on that short. A clean hourly close above $2,292 would be a break of the range.
Bitcoin is slightly different.
We have already pushed above the $80,700 level, but that level was never the strongest line in the sand. Right now, Bitcoin is testing the upper liquidity area, and I still do not fully buy that this move holds.
We have now closed one hourly candle around this area, but for me, the real confirmation would be a second hourly close outside the current trading range. If that happens, then fair enough, the market is showing strength and I have to respect it.
The top of the range I am watching is around $82,493. That is the level where this starts to become much harder to argue against.
I have also opened a $1.7 million Solana short from $92.12, but that is more of an opportunistic side trade. It could be a five-minute trade, and I may close it quickly. Same with ETH. These are smaller side positions, not the main focus.
The big trade is still Bitcoin.
That is the one I want to play properly, whether it ends up being a breakout or a breakdown. I am not married to either direction. I just want the real move.
Even if I take a $100,000 loss here, that does not change the plan. When the right trade pays, it can make seven figures.
That is the game.
For Ethereum, the key level is $2,292. If ETH breaks above that level and, more importantly, closes an hourly candle above it, then I probably do not want to hold too much size on that short. A clean hourly close above $2,292 would be a break of the range.
Bitcoin is slightly different.
We have already pushed above the $80,700 level, but that level was never the strongest line in the sand. Right now, Bitcoin is testing the upper liquidity area, and I still do not fully buy that this move holds.
We have now closed one hourly candle around this area, but for me, the real confirmation would be a second hourly close outside the current trading range. If that happens, then fair enough, the market is showing strength and I have to respect it.
The top of the range I am watching is around $82,493. That is the level where this starts to become much harder to argue against.
I have also opened a $1.7 million Solana short from $92.12, but that is more of an opportunistic side trade. It could be a five-minute trade, and I may close it quickly. Same with ETH. These are smaller side positions, not the main focus.
The big trade is still Bitcoin.
That is the one I want to play properly, whether it ends up being a breakout or a breakdown. I am not married to either direction. I just want the real move.
Even if I take a $100,000 loss here, that does not change the plan. When the right trade pays, it can make seven figures.
That is the game.
👍3
It's very easy to get scared playing with big numbers, but if you piss like a puppy, stay on the porch and let the big dogs eat.
❤2
It is very easy to get emotional when the numbers get big.
But that is exactly why position sizing, conviction, and risk management matter.
If the volatility makes you panic, then this is not the part of the market you should be playing in.
Big trades come with big swings. That is the game.
This is where it gets genuinely interesting.
The question now is simple: how confident am I, and do I sleep with this trade open?
I still believe the downside case is there. I still think the data supports it. Right now, Bitcoin is taking out an area of liquidity that had already started to show up on the heat map, but at the same time, we have now formed a much larger liquidity zone below.
I’ll attach the liquidation heat map to this post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
We have taken out a lot of the upside range now, but that does not mean we cannot push higher first. Around $82,000 is absolutely in play from here, and the next hour or so probably decides whether this is a trim, a cut, or a hold.
So for now, it is a waiting job.
If the position reaches around minus $100,000, I will close it, take the loss, and try again. That is the risk I accepted when I opened the trade.
I am willing to lose in order to win here.
The obvious question is: why didn’t I close when I was up $150,000?
The answer is because this is a $6 million position. $150,000 looks like a lot of money on the screen, but relative to the size of the trade, it was not my target. I trade by percentages and structure, not by getting emotional over the number.
On the surface, taking the profit probably looked like the easy decision. But I am not trying to play this as a quick in-and-out trade. I am trying to build a larger position that I can hold if the market structure breaks down properly.
If Bitcoin rolls over and starts moving towards the $60,000 range, a $6 million short can turn into a seven-figure trade.
That is the opportunity I am positioning for.
But that is exactly why position sizing, conviction, and risk management matter.
If the volatility makes you panic, then this is not the part of the market you should be playing in.
Big trades come with big swings. That is the game.
This is where it gets genuinely interesting.
The question now is simple: how confident am I, and do I sleep with this trade open?
I still believe the downside case is there. I still think the data supports it. Right now, Bitcoin is taking out an area of liquidity that had already started to show up on the heat map, but at the same time, we have now formed a much larger liquidity zone below.
I’ll attach the liquidation heat map to this post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
We have taken out a lot of the upside range now, but that does not mean we cannot push higher first. Around $82,000 is absolutely in play from here, and the next hour or so probably decides whether this is a trim, a cut, or a hold.
So for now, it is a waiting job.
If the position reaches around minus $100,000, I will close it, take the loss, and try again. That is the risk I accepted when I opened the trade.
I am willing to lose in order to win here.
The obvious question is: why didn’t I close when I was up $150,000?
The answer is because this is a $6 million position. $150,000 looks like a lot of money on the screen, but relative to the size of the trade, it was not my target. I trade by percentages and structure, not by getting emotional over the number.
On the surface, taking the profit probably looked like the easy decision. But I am not trying to play this as a quick in-and-out trade. I am trying to build a larger position that I can hold if the market structure breaks down properly.
If Bitcoin rolls over and starts moving towards the $60,000 range, a $6 million short can turn into a seven-figure trade.
That is the opportunity I am positioning for.
👍7❤5🔥4
IM BACK IN
MORNING UPDATE PENDING
The intel trade i took yesterday on a AMA to show people you can trade stocks also on Yubit but i fell asleep with it open from being tired
If im right i might make $1m today
MORNING UPDATE PENDING
The intel trade i took yesterday on a AMA to show people you can trade stocks also on Yubit but i fell asleep with it open from being tired
If im right i might make $1m today
❤3
Good morning everyone, and welcome back to the Chart Advantage crypto group.
Today is going to be interesting.
Right now, I am heavily short across the market. Combined, the positions add up to around $14.5 million in short exposure on a $2 million account, which puts me at roughly 7.5x cross leverage.
That means there is not much room for error. It also means I am backing the read.
Today is Friday. If this trade is going to play out properly, I think today is the day we see it. I am still prepared to lose around $100,000 on this idea if I am wrong, and I am comfortable with that risk.
I have attached updates for all the trades I am currently in, so you can see the entries, sizing, and overall positioning. I will also post the criteria for where I would take the loss, and where I would look to take profit.
The reason I am staying with this is simple: I still think there is meat on the downside.
We are still getting rejected from the same range that everyone expected the market to break through cleanly. Instead, the market is struggling there. Until that changes, my view remains the same.
Now, some people will look at this and call it financially degenerate. Fair enough. It is aggressive.
But the maths is also very clear.
On a $2 million account, 1% is $20,000. A 10% account move is $200,000. With this level of exposure, even a relatively small move in the right direction can produce a very large result.
If the market gives us a clean 2% move down today, the combined profit across these positions could be very significant. Depending on how each position moves, that could be the kind of trade where I simply take the win and close it.
That is what I am hunting here.
I am not doing this because I want to gamble blindly. I am doing it because I think I have one of the cleaner reads on the market that I have had in a while. When that happens, I think it makes sense to back the trade properly, while still having a defined loss point.
I know the risk. I am prepared to take it.
Let’s see if the market pays us today.
Today is going to be interesting.
Right now, I am heavily short across the market. Combined, the positions add up to around $14.5 million in short exposure on a $2 million account, which puts me at roughly 7.5x cross leverage.
That means there is not much room for error. It also means I am backing the read.
Today is Friday. If this trade is going to play out properly, I think today is the day we see it. I am still prepared to lose around $100,000 on this idea if I am wrong, and I am comfortable with that risk.
I have attached updates for all the trades I am currently in, so you can see the entries, sizing, and overall positioning. I will also post the criteria for where I would take the loss, and where I would look to take profit.
The reason I am staying with this is simple: I still think there is meat on the downside.
We are still getting rejected from the same range that everyone expected the market to break through cleanly. Instead, the market is struggling there. Until that changes, my view remains the same.
Now, some people will look at this and call it financially degenerate. Fair enough. It is aggressive.
But the maths is also very clear.
On a $2 million account, 1% is $20,000. A 10% account move is $200,000. With this level of exposure, even a relatively small move in the right direction can produce a very large result.
If the market gives us a clean 2% move down today, the combined profit across these positions could be very significant. Depending on how each position moves, that could be the kind of trade where I simply take the win and close it.
That is what I am hunting here.
I am not doing this because I want to gamble blindly. I am doing it because I think I have one of the cleaner reads on the market that I have had in a while. When that happens, I think it makes sense to back the trade properly, while still having a defined loss point.
I know the risk. I am prepared to take it.
Let’s see if the market pays us today.
❤6
Starting with the Bitcoin spot ETF data.
Yesterday, we saw some buying from the ETFs. IBIT, which is BlackRock, FBTC, which is Fidelity, HODL, which is VanEck, BTC, which is Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust, and MSBT, which is Morgan Stanley, all increased their Bitcoin holdings.
Combined, that added up to around 1,660 Bitcoin acquired by the ETFs.
Now, that sounds positive on the surface, and it is technically an inflow. But the important point here is context.
If you look at the second chart I’ve attached, which shows total Bitcoin spot ETF flows, you can see that the most recent green bar is relatively small compared with the kind of ETF demand we were seeing during the stronger part of the bull cycle.
So yes, Bitcoin ETFs bought yesterday.
But no, this is not the same kind of aggressive ETF accumulation that previously helped drive the market higher.
That distinction matters.
Then, if you look at the Bitcoin ETF AUM chart I’ve also attached, the broader trend is still not particularly strong. A small uptick is still just a small uptick within what looks like a wider decline.
AUM can move for two reasons: actual inflows and outflows, but also the price of Bitcoin itself. So I’m not saying this is purely redemption-driven. But either way, the message is the same: ETF demand is not currently expanding in the way it was during the clean bull phase.
That is why I am not treating yesterday’s ETF buying as a major bullish signal.
To me, it looks more like a small bounce in demand inside a broader environment where liquidity is still tight.
And that fits the bigger macro picture.
When liquidity gets squeezed, people sell liquid assets. They do not aggressively save into risk assets when the economy is getting harder to compete in. They raise cash. They reduce exposure. They take less risk.
So while the ETF inflow is worth noting, I do not think it invalidates the short thesis.
If anything, the lack of serious follow-through from ETF buyers supports the idea that Bitcoin is still vulnerable here.
Yesterday, we saw some buying from the ETFs. IBIT, which is BlackRock, FBTC, which is Fidelity, HODL, which is VanEck, BTC, which is Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust, and MSBT, which is Morgan Stanley, all increased their Bitcoin holdings.
Combined, that added up to around 1,660 Bitcoin acquired by the ETFs.
Now, that sounds positive on the surface, and it is technically an inflow. But the important point here is context.
If you look at the second chart I’ve attached, which shows total Bitcoin spot ETF flows, you can see that the most recent green bar is relatively small compared with the kind of ETF demand we were seeing during the stronger part of the bull cycle.
So yes, Bitcoin ETFs bought yesterday.
But no, this is not the same kind of aggressive ETF accumulation that previously helped drive the market higher.
That distinction matters.
Then, if you look at the Bitcoin ETF AUM chart I’ve also attached, the broader trend is still not particularly strong. A small uptick is still just a small uptick within what looks like a wider decline.
AUM can move for two reasons: actual inflows and outflows, but also the price of Bitcoin itself. So I’m not saying this is purely redemption-driven. But either way, the message is the same: ETF demand is not currently expanding in the way it was during the clean bull phase.
That is why I am not treating yesterday’s ETF buying as a major bullish signal.
To me, it looks more like a small bounce in demand inside a broader environment where liquidity is still tight.
And that fits the bigger macro picture.
When liquidity gets squeezed, people sell liquid assets. They do not aggressively save into risk assets when the economy is getting harder to compete in. They raise cash. They reduce exposure. They take less risk.
So while the ETF inflow is worth noting, I do not think it invalidates the short thesis.
If anything, the lack of serious follow-through from ETF buyers supports the idea that Bitcoin is still vulnerable here.
❤4
Now looking at funding rates.
Across the exchanges, funding is still generally negative, but the important point is that it is rising. On the USDT contracts especially, funding is moving back towards neutral, which tells us more traders are starting to open long positions again.
That matters because it changes the risk profile.
When funding is deeply negative, it can sometimes create pressure for an upside squeeze because too many people are positioned short. But when funding starts moving back towards neutral or positive after a bounce, that tells me longs are coming back into the market.
That is where I start paying attention.
On the shorter-term Bitcoin OI-weighted funding chart, you can see that negative funding has often appeared either after a big move, or while price is under pressure. But when we zoom out to the 8-hour Bitcoin OI-weighted funding chart, the bigger picture becomes more useful.
Funding has been ticking higher again.
Recently, when funding has flipped from negative back towards positive, price has generally struggled afterwards. It shows the market moving from forced bearish positioning back into long exposure, and that is usually when the next downside move can begin if the spot bid is not strong enough.
The longer-term chart from August through to today supports that view as well.
When OI-weighted funding rolls over and starts heading lower, price generally weakens with it. When funding gets too positive after a relief bounce, the market often struggles to continue higher.
So for me, this is another bearish data point.
It is not a standalone reason to be short, but it supports the wider thesis. Funding is no longer giving me a strong short-squeeze warning. It is moving back towards neutral, longs are stepping back in, and price is still failing around the range everyone expected it to break through.
That is exactly the kind of setup where I want to stay cautious on the market and continue backing the downside unless the data changes.
Across the exchanges, funding is still generally negative, but the important point is that it is rising. On the USDT contracts especially, funding is moving back towards neutral, which tells us more traders are starting to open long positions again.
That matters because it changes the risk profile.
When funding is deeply negative, it can sometimes create pressure for an upside squeeze because too many people are positioned short. But when funding starts moving back towards neutral or positive after a bounce, that tells me longs are coming back into the market.
That is where I start paying attention.
On the shorter-term Bitcoin OI-weighted funding chart, you can see that negative funding has often appeared either after a big move, or while price is under pressure. But when we zoom out to the 8-hour Bitcoin OI-weighted funding chart, the bigger picture becomes more useful.
Funding has been ticking higher again.
Recently, when funding has flipped from negative back towards positive, price has generally struggled afterwards. It shows the market moving from forced bearish positioning back into long exposure, and that is usually when the next downside move can begin if the spot bid is not strong enough.
The longer-term chart from August through to today supports that view as well.
When OI-weighted funding rolls over and starts heading lower, price generally weakens with it. When funding gets too positive after a relief bounce, the market often struggles to continue higher.
So for me, this is another bearish data point.
It is not a standalone reason to be short, but it supports the wider thesis. Funding is no longer giving me a strong short-squeeze warning. It is moving back towards neutral, longs are stepping back in, and price is still failing around the range everyone expected it to break through.
That is exactly the kind of setup where I want to stay cautious on the market and continue backing the downside unless the data changes.
❤4
The next chart is Bitcoin spot volume.
What we can see here is a clear declining trend in spot volume. That matters because spot demand is the cleanest form of real buying pressure in the market.
Right now, that demand is not strong.
The second chart makes the point even clearer. Over the past 30 days, spot volume has accounted for only around 7% of total crypto volume, while futures volume has accounted for roughly 93%.
That is not a healthy bull market structure.
It tells us the market is still being driven mainly by leverage, positioning, and emotion rather than strong spot accumulation. When the futures market is completely dominating volume like this, price can move quickly, but it is also more fragile.
In stronger bull market conditions, I would expect that ratio to look more balanced. Something closer to 85% futures / 15% spot would be a healthier structure. Right now, we are closer to 93% futures / 7% spot, and that is not great.
Until spot volume returns properly, I find it hard to call this a clean bullish environment.
The other thing worth pointing out is the taker buy versus taker sell data.
Futures taker buy and futures taker sell are roughly even. Spot taker buy and spot taker sell are also roughly even. But on both sides, there is still slightly more taker selling than taker buying.
That shows a small but important bias.
It means the market is still leaning more towards people wanting to get out rather than people aggressively wanting to get in.
Again, this is not a standalone reason to be short. But when you combine declining spot volume, futures-dominated liquidity, weak ETF follow-through, and funding moving back towards neutral, the picture is still not especially bullish.
For me, this is another data point supporting the downside thesis.
What we can see here is a clear declining trend in spot volume. That matters because spot demand is the cleanest form of real buying pressure in the market.
Right now, that demand is not strong.
The second chart makes the point even clearer. Over the past 30 days, spot volume has accounted for only around 7% of total crypto volume, while futures volume has accounted for roughly 93%.
That is not a healthy bull market structure.
It tells us the market is still being driven mainly by leverage, positioning, and emotion rather than strong spot accumulation. When the futures market is completely dominating volume like this, price can move quickly, but it is also more fragile.
In stronger bull market conditions, I would expect that ratio to look more balanced. Something closer to 85% futures / 15% spot would be a healthier structure. Right now, we are closer to 93% futures / 7% spot, and that is not great.
Until spot volume returns properly, I find it hard to call this a clean bullish environment.
The other thing worth pointing out is the taker buy versus taker sell data.
Futures taker buy and futures taker sell are roughly even. Spot taker buy and spot taker sell are also roughly even. But on both sides, there is still slightly more taker selling than taker buying.
That shows a small but important bias.
It means the market is still leaning more towards people wanting to get out rather than people aggressively wanting to get in.
Again, this is not a standalone reason to be short. But when you combine declining spot volume, futures-dominated liquidity, weak ETF follow-through, and funding moving back towards neutral, the picture is still not especially bullish.
For me, this is another data point supporting the downside thesis.
❤4