In 2014–2015, Bitcoin formed what I would consider one of the clearest macro accumulation structures in its history. The market sold off heavily, put in a selling climax, retested the lows, produced a spring, and then moved into a clear sign-of-strength phase before the next major bull market began.
In 2021, after the May crash, Bitcoin spent months rebuilding structure instead of immediately breaking down further. That range had all the characteristics of re-accumulation. Price moved sideways, shook out weak hands, absorbed supply, and then eventually broke higher toward the $69,000 cycle high.
In 2022–2023, the bear-market bottom showed similar behaviour again. Bitcoin flushed into the $18,000 region, repeatedly tested demand, and gradually built a base while sentiment was extremely negative. From a trader’s perspective, that was classic accumulation behaviour: maximum fear, repeated liquidity sweeps, and then a slow transition back into strength.
In 2024, we saw another potential re-accumulation range between roughly $50,000 and $70,000. Bitcoin chopped sideways, trapped both sides of the market, and forced out impatient traders before continuing higher.
In 2025, it is also worth noting that Wyckoff does not only apply to bullish setups. Around the cycle top, Bitcoin also showed signs of distribution after losing the $100,000 level. That structure warned that the market was no longer being accumulated, but potentially distributed before a markdown phase.
So when I look at the current Bitcoin chart, I am not looking at this as some random pattern. I am looking at it through the lens of market structure, liquidity, supply absorption, and where larger players are likely positioning. Bitcoin has respected these Wyckoff-style phases multiple times before, and when they confirm, the move that follows is usually significant.
In 2021, after the May crash, Bitcoin spent months rebuilding structure instead of immediately breaking down further. That range had all the characteristics of re-accumulation. Price moved sideways, shook out weak hands, absorbed supply, and then eventually broke higher toward the $69,000 cycle high.
In 2022–2023, the bear-market bottom showed similar behaviour again. Bitcoin flushed into the $18,000 region, repeatedly tested demand, and gradually built a base while sentiment was extremely negative. From a trader’s perspective, that was classic accumulation behaviour: maximum fear, repeated liquidity sweeps, and then a slow transition back into strength.
In 2024, we saw another potential re-accumulation range between roughly $50,000 and $70,000. Bitcoin chopped sideways, trapped both sides of the market, and forced out impatient traders before continuing higher.
In 2025, it is also worth noting that Wyckoff does not only apply to bullish setups. Around the cycle top, Bitcoin also showed signs of distribution after losing the $100,000 level. That structure warned that the market was no longer being accumulated, but potentially distributed before a markdown phase.
So when I look at the current Bitcoin chart, I am not looking at this as some random pattern. I am looking at it through the lens of market structure, liquidity, supply absorption, and where larger players are likely positioning. Bitcoin has respected these Wyckoff-style phases multiple times before, and when they confirm, the move that follows is usually significant.
Be careful with viral oil headlines.
Watcher Guru posted that Brent crude had risen 7% to $120 following the Iranian attack on the UAE.
But when you actually check the main Brent chart, the standard quoted price did not appear to be trading at $120. Brent did spike hard on the geopolitical news, but the widely quoted front-month price was closer to the $113–$114 region, not $120.
This matters because headlines like this can make the market look more extreme than it actually is.
Also, don’t confuse different oil instruments.
Brent crude is a major global oil benchmark. WTI is the main US crude benchmark. USO is not “the oil price”; it is an ETF that tracks exposure to US light sweet crude futures, and its share price is not the same thing as crude oil trading at a dollar-per-barrel level.
So the real story is not “oil did nothing.”
Oil did move sharply higher because geopolitical risk in the Gulf is serious.
The real issue is precision.
If someone says Brent hit $120, check whether they mean spot Brent, Brent futures, a specific contract, an intraday wick, a CFD price, or just a sensational headline.
In markets, especially during war headlines, bad data spreads fast.
Always check the chart before reacting to the tweet.
Watcher Guru posted that Brent crude had risen 7% to $120 following the Iranian attack on the UAE.
But when you actually check the main Brent chart, the standard quoted price did not appear to be trading at $120. Brent did spike hard on the geopolitical news, but the widely quoted front-month price was closer to the $113–$114 region, not $120.
This matters because headlines like this can make the market look more extreme than it actually is.
Also, don’t confuse different oil instruments.
Brent crude is a major global oil benchmark. WTI is the main US crude benchmark. USO is not “the oil price”; it is an ETF that tracks exposure to US light sweet crude futures, and its share price is not the same thing as crude oil trading at a dollar-per-barrel level.
So the real story is not “oil did nothing.”
Oil did move sharply higher because geopolitical risk in the Gulf is serious.
The real issue is precision.
If someone says Brent hit $120, check whether they mean spot Brent, Brent futures, a specific contract, an intraday wick, a CFD price, or just a sensational headline.
In markets, especially during war headlines, bad data spreads fast.
Always check the chart before reacting to the tweet.
🦄1
This is the Bitcoin halving clock.
It shows there is now roughly 1 year, 331 days, 19 hours, and 46 minutes until the next Bitcoin halving. That puts us almost exactly two years away from the next major supply shock in Bitcoin.
As a trader, this matters because Bitcoin has historically moved in clear halving cycles. The halving itself is not magic, and it does not mean Bitcoin has to go up on the exact day. But it does change the supply schedule. Every halving cuts the amount of new Bitcoin mined per block by 50%. The next halving will reduce the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
The important point here is timing. We are not just two years away from the next halving; we are also roughly two years into the current halving cycle. Historically, this part of the cycle has usually been the transition zone. It is normally not the euphoric phase. It is usually where the market has already gone through a major expansion, cooled off, reset leverage, shaken out weak hands, and started moving into broader accumulation before the next pre-halving rally begins.
In previous cycles, the midpoint between halvings has often been where Bitcoin forms a major bottom, builds a long sideways base, or begins recovering from a deep correction. That is why this stage can feel boring, frustrating, and uncertain. Price can chop sideways, sentiment can turn negative, and retail interest usually drops. But from a professional trader’s perspective, this is often where the next cycle starts being built.
The market does not usually wait until the halving to move. It normally starts pricing the event in well before it happens. The closer Bitcoin gets to the next halving, the more the market begins to focus on supply reduction, scarcity, and the next expansion phase. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has generally performed strongly in the year leading into the halving.
That means this current period matters. We are not at the end of the Bitcoin cycle. We are in the middle of it. In my view, this is the mid-cycle reset / early accumulation phase, and the next major phase is accumulation into pre-halving expansion.
That does not mean Bitcoin has to go straight up from here. But it does mean the current structure should not be ignored. Historically, this is where patient capital starts positioning before the broader market becomes bullish again.
That is why I am watching the Bitcoin halving clock closely. The closer we get to the next halving, the more important this cycle structure becomes.
It shows there is now roughly 1 year, 331 days, 19 hours, and 46 minutes until the next Bitcoin halving. That puts us almost exactly two years away from the next major supply shock in Bitcoin.
As a trader, this matters because Bitcoin has historically moved in clear halving cycles. The halving itself is not magic, and it does not mean Bitcoin has to go up on the exact day. But it does change the supply schedule. Every halving cuts the amount of new Bitcoin mined per block by 50%. The next halving will reduce the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
The important point here is timing. We are not just two years away from the next halving; we are also roughly two years into the current halving cycle. Historically, this part of the cycle has usually been the transition zone. It is normally not the euphoric phase. It is usually where the market has already gone through a major expansion, cooled off, reset leverage, shaken out weak hands, and started moving into broader accumulation before the next pre-halving rally begins.
In previous cycles, the midpoint between halvings has often been where Bitcoin forms a major bottom, builds a long sideways base, or begins recovering from a deep correction. That is why this stage can feel boring, frustrating, and uncertain. Price can chop sideways, sentiment can turn negative, and retail interest usually drops. But from a professional trader’s perspective, this is often where the next cycle starts being built.
The market does not usually wait until the halving to move. It normally starts pricing the event in well before it happens. The closer Bitcoin gets to the next halving, the more the market begins to focus on supply reduction, scarcity, and the next expansion phase. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has generally performed strongly in the year leading into the halving.
That means this current period matters. We are not at the end of the Bitcoin cycle. We are in the middle of it. In my view, this is the mid-cycle reset / early accumulation phase, and the next major phase is accumulation into pre-halving expansion.
That does not mean Bitcoin has to go straight up from here. But it does mean the current structure should not be ignored. Historically, this is where patient capital starts positioning before the broader market becomes bullish again.
That is why I am watching the Bitcoin halving clock closely. The closer we get to the next halving, the more important this cycle structure becomes.
This is the part of the Bitcoin halving cycle that most people underestimate.
When the next halving takes place, miners will go from earning 3.125 BTC per block to 1.5625 BTC per block.
That means miners will earn half as much Bitcoin for doing the same job.
But their electricity bill does not get cut in half.
Their staff costs do not get cut in half.
Their hardware costs do not get cut in half.
Their financing costs do not get cut in half.
So if Bitcoin price stayed exactly the same after the halving, miner revenue from the block reward would be cut almost in half overnight.
For miners to earn the same amount in dollar terms from the block reward, Bitcoin price would need to roughly double, assuming everything else stayed equal.
But the real situation is even more aggressive than that.
As Bitcoin becomes more attractive, more miners come online.
As more miners come online, network hashrate rises.
As hashrate rises, Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusts higher.
That means it becomes more competitive and more expensive to mine each Bitcoin.
Then new mining technology comes out, bigger operators scale up, and the network becomes even more efficient, but also even more competitive.
So over time, the cost to mine Bitcoin keeps being pushed higher.
That is why the next halving matters so much.
It is not just that the block reward gets cut in half.
It is that miners are earning fewer Bitcoin at the same time as the network can become harder and more expensive to compete in.
By the time the next halving arrives, it is completely realistic that the full cost to mine Bitcoin could be around, or even above, $100,000 for many miners.
That does not mean Bitcoin has to instantly double on the day of the halving.
Markets do not work that cleanly.
Some miners will become unprofitable.
Some will shut machines off.
Difficulty can adjust.
Transaction fees can help.
But the bigger picture is clear.
The halving reduces new supply.
Mining remains expensive.
Difficulty trends higher when more capital enters the network.
And for miners to remain profitable at scale, Bitcoin eventually has to reprice higher in dollar terms.
That is the economic pressure behind every halving cycle.
When the next halving takes place, miners will go from earning 3.125 BTC per block to 1.5625 BTC per block.
That means miners will earn half as much Bitcoin for doing the same job.
But their electricity bill does not get cut in half.
Their staff costs do not get cut in half.
Their hardware costs do not get cut in half.
Their financing costs do not get cut in half.
So if Bitcoin price stayed exactly the same after the halving, miner revenue from the block reward would be cut almost in half overnight.
For miners to earn the same amount in dollar terms from the block reward, Bitcoin price would need to roughly double, assuming everything else stayed equal.
But the real situation is even more aggressive than that.
As Bitcoin becomes more attractive, more miners come online.
As more miners come online, network hashrate rises.
As hashrate rises, Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusts higher.
That means it becomes more competitive and more expensive to mine each Bitcoin.
Then new mining technology comes out, bigger operators scale up, and the network becomes even more efficient, but also even more competitive.
So over time, the cost to mine Bitcoin keeps being pushed higher.
That is why the next halving matters so much.
It is not just that the block reward gets cut in half.
It is that miners are earning fewer Bitcoin at the same time as the network can become harder and more expensive to compete in.
By the time the next halving arrives, it is completely realistic that the full cost to mine Bitcoin could be around, or even above, $100,000 for many miners.
That does not mean Bitcoin has to instantly double on the day of the halving.
Markets do not work that cleanly.
Some miners will become unprofitable.
Some will shut machines off.
Difficulty can adjust.
Transaction fees can help.
But the bigger picture is clear.
The halving reduces new supply.
Mining remains expensive.
Difficulty trends higher when more capital enters the network.
And for miners to remain profitable at scale, Bitcoin eventually has to reprice higher in dollar terms.
That is the economic pressure behind every halving cycle.
Can MicroStrategy Collapse in 2026?
The bearish argument against Michael Saylor is not that Strategy has a simple liquidation price like a leveraged Bybit trade. It is that the structure is becoming a reflexive Bitcoin bubble: issue equity, debt, and preferred stock, buy Bitcoin, push the Bitcoin-per-share narrative, then rely on the market giving the stock a premium so more capital can be raised again.
The problem comes if Bitcoin falls far enough that the premium disappears and capital markets close. Strategy itself says its Bitcoin strategy depends heavily on access to equity and debt financing, and if it cannot raise capital or maintain liquidity, it may have to sell Bitcoin to meet obligations.
The key levels are simple. Around $75,500 BTC, Strategy’s Bitcoin position is roughly at its average cost. Around $25,000–$27,000 BTC, the Bitcoin stack would be getting close to covering senior debt plus preferred-style claims. Around $10,000 BTC, the Bitcoin stack would be close to covering senior debt only.
So the risk is not a clean margin call at one exact Bitcoin price. The real risk is a confidence spiral: Bitcoin falls, MSTR loses its NAV premium, refinancing gets harder, preferred dividends and debt obligations become more stressful, and the market starts pricing Strategy less like a Bitcoin accumulation machine and more like a forced seller waiting to happen.
The bearish argument against Michael Saylor is not that Strategy has a simple liquidation price like a leveraged Bybit trade. It is that the structure is becoming a reflexive Bitcoin bubble: issue equity, debt, and preferred stock, buy Bitcoin, push the Bitcoin-per-share narrative, then rely on the market giving the stock a premium so more capital can be raised again.
The problem comes if Bitcoin falls far enough that the premium disappears and capital markets close. Strategy itself says its Bitcoin strategy depends heavily on access to equity and debt financing, and if it cannot raise capital or maintain liquidity, it may have to sell Bitcoin to meet obligations.
The key levels are simple. Around $75,500 BTC, Strategy’s Bitcoin position is roughly at its average cost. Around $25,000–$27,000 BTC, the Bitcoin stack would be getting close to covering senior debt plus preferred-style claims. Around $10,000 BTC, the Bitcoin stack would be close to covering senior debt only.
So the risk is not a clean margin call at one exact Bitcoin price. The real risk is a confidence spiral: Bitcoin falls, MSTR loses its NAV premium, refinancing gets harder, preferred dividends and debt obligations become more stressful, and the market starts pricing Strategy less like a Bitcoin accumulation machine and more like a forced seller waiting to happen.
🔥4
Bitcoin continues to rally today, now trading above $81,000 at around $81,415.
The move is still showing strength heading into the US open, and right now I’m expecting this momentum to continue.
My current upside target over the next 24 hours is around $84,500, assuming the market keeps pushing and buyers continue stepping in.
I’m currently positioned long on Bitcoin, because the structure still looks bullish to me. The trend is intact, momentum is building, and if Bitcoin holds above this $81,000 region, I think the next leg higher could come quickly.
As always, this is my own trade setup and not financial advice, but right now, I’m staying long while the market keeps confirming strength.
The move is still showing strength heading into the US open, and right now I’m expecting this momentum to continue.
My current upside target over the next 24 hours is around $84,500, assuming the market keeps pushing and buyers continue stepping in.
I’m currently positioned long on Bitcoin, because the structure still looks bullish to me. The trend is intact, momentum is building, and if Bitcoin holds above this $81,000 region, I think the next leg higher could come quickly.
As always, this is my own trade setup and not financial advice, but right now, I’m staying long while the market keeps confirming strength.
🔥2
My first major upside target is still around $84,500. But if momentum keeps building, I think Bitcoin can push significantly higher than that, potentially towards the $95,000 region.
The reason I’m bullish here is not just because the chart looks strong. There are actual catalysts lining up behind this move.
The first one is ETF demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have started seeing strong inflows again, and that matters because this is real spot buying pressure coming into the market. When institutions are buying through ETFs while Bitcoin is already breaking higher, it creates a much stronger setup than a rally driven purely by leverage.
The second catalyst is regulation. The CLARITY Act is bringing crypto market structure back into focus in the US, and the market likes that. Bitcoin performs better when uncertainty falls. If investors start to believe that the US is moving towards a clearer legal framework for crypto, that makes it much easier for larger institutions to allocate capital.
Then you have the liquidation side of the market.
There is still a significant amount of short liquidity sitting above the current price. If Bitcoin keeps pushing higher, those shorts can start getting forced out. That creates forced buying, which can accelerate the move even further.
That is why the next 24 hours are important.
If Bitcoin holds above this $81,000 area and starts pushing into the $84,000–$85,000 zone, I think the bears are going to be under serious pressure. From there, a squeeze towards $95,000 becomes a lot more realistic.
I’m currently positioned long because the market structure still looks strong to me. Bitcoin has reclaimed a major psychological level, institutional demand is improving, regulation is moving in the right direction, and short sellers are sitting in a dangerous position.
For me, the path of least resistance still looks higher. Not financial advice, but from a trader’s perspective, this is exactly the kind of setup where being too bearish can get very expensive, very quickly.
The reason I’m bullish here is not just because the chart looks strong. There are actual catalysts lining up behind this move.
The first one is ETF demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have started seeing strong inflows again, and that matters because this is real spot buying pressure coming into the market. When institutions are buying through ETFs while Bitcoin is already breaking higher, it creates a much stronger setup than a rally driven purely by leverage.
The second catalyst is regulation. The CLARITY Act is bringing crypto market structure back into focus in the US, and the market likes that. Bitcoin performs better when uncertainty falls. If investors start to believe that the US is moving towards a clearer legal framework for crypto, that makes it much easier for larger institutions to allocate capital.
Then you have the liquidation side of the market.
There is still a significant amount of short liquidity sitting above the current price. If Bitcoin keeps pushing higher, those shorts can start getting forced out. That creates forced buying, which can accelerate the move even further.
That is why the next 24 hours are important.
If Bitcoin holds above this $81,000 area and starts pushing into the $84,000–$85,000 zone, I think the bears are going to be under serious pressure. From there, a squeeze towards $95,000 becomes a lot more realistic.
I’m currently positioned long because the market structure still looks strong to me. Bitcoin has reclaimed a major psychological level, institutional demand is improving, regulation is moving in the right direction, and short sellers are sitting in a dangerous position.
For me, the path of least resistance still looks higher. Not financial advice, but from a trader’s perspective, this is exactly the kind of setup where being too bearish can get very expensive, very quickly.
👍3
Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap is starting to look seriously bullish.
Price has now begun attacking the liquidity around the $81,000 region, pushing back into the yellow liquidation range. These yellow zones matter because they show where leveraged positions are clustered. Once Bitcoin starts moving through them, shorts can get forced out, creating buy pressure and accelerating the move higher.
What is interesting now is that Bitcoin has started clearing the dense liquidity around $81,000 and is moving into thinner zones above. That can allow price to move faster, especially if the market starts chasing the next major liquidity pocket.
On the one-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap, there is still significant liquidity sitting above the current price, stretching towards roughly $85,000. That gives Bitcoin a clear short-term upside target.
Zooming out to the one-year heatmap, there is also a huge range of liquidity building above $130,000. I am not saying we get there today, but that liquidity is building. When Bitcoin eventually attacks that zone, I think it happens violently, probably in a handful of aggressive candles.
That is why I am not aggressively bearish here.
My strategy is simple: accumulate spot Bitcoin over time, and when the setup is strong, use leverage selectively to build more spot Bitcoin. Not to gamble, but to play the liquidity structure properly.
Right now, Bitcoin is above $81,000, short-term liquidity still sits higher, the weekly heatmap points towards $85,000, and the long-term heatmap shows much bigger liquidity pools above.
The path of least resistance still looks higher.
Price has now begun attacking the liquidity around the $81,000 region, pushing back into the yellow liquidation range. These yellow zones matter because they show where leveraged positions are clustered. Once Bitcoin starts moving through them, shorts can get forced out, creating buy pressure and accelerating the move higher.
What is interesting now is that Bitcoin has started clearing the dense liquidity around $81,000 and is moving into thinner zones above. That can allow price to move faster, especially if the market starts chasing the next major liquidity pocket.
On the one-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap, there is still significant liquidity sitting above the current price, stretching towards roughly $85,000. That gives Bitcoin a clear short-term upside target.
Zooming out to the one-year heatmap, there is also a huge range of liquidity building above $130,000. I am not saying we get there today, but that liquidity is building. When Bitcoin eventually attacks that zone, I think it happens violently, probably in a handful of aggressive candles.
That is why I am not aggressively bearish here.
My strategy is simple: accumulate spot Bitcoin over time, and when the setup is strong, use leverage selectively to build more spot Bitcoin. Not to gamble, but to play the liquidity structure properly.
Right now, Bitcoin is above $81,000, short-term liquidity still sits higher, the weekly heatmap points towards $85,000, and the long-term heatmap shows much bigger liquidity pools above.
The path of least resistance still looks higher.
❤1
MICHAEL SAYLOR SIGNALS HE WILL SELL BITCOIN. A REAL THREAT TO THE MARKET.
Michael Saylor has now said the quiet part out loud. On Strategy’s Q1 2026 earnings call, he said: “We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend”. That is a major shift in narrative, because for years the market treated Strategy as a one-way Bitcoin accumulator.
Why this matters: Strategy disclosed it held 818,334 BTC as of May 3, 2026. That is an enormous chunk of the market, roughly 4.1% of circulating supply based on current circulation levels. When a holder that large starts openly talking about selling coins, even occasionally, it creates a new layer of risk for every Bitcoin holder.
The real problem is not that Strategy is about to dump all of its Bitcoin tomorrow. The problem is that Saylor is turning himself into a structural liability. If you keep accumulating a massive percentage of the supply, then start selling pieces of it to support dividends or capital structure needs, you introduce recurring fear into the market. Traders will know that one of the biggest holders on earth is no longer just a buyer.
And this is not happening in a vacuum. Strategy’s capital structure now includes a very large preferred stack with ongoing dividend obligations. Company disclosures show more than $13.5 billion of preferred equity outstanding and about $229.5 million of preferred dividends recorded in Q1 alone. That means there is a real reason for the market to take this seriously when Saylor says Bitcoin sales are one of the available tools.
Bottom line: this is bearish because of the precedent. Bitcoin’s biggest corporate bull has now publicly opened the door to selling. Even if the first sale is small, the signal matters. The moment the market believes Strategy can become a periodic seller, that can trigger fear, volatility, and sharper downside reactions whenever pressure builds.
Michael Saylor has now said the quiet part out loud. On Strategy’s Q1 2026 earnings call, he said: “We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend”. That is a major shift in narrative, because for years the market treated Strategy as a one-way Bitcoin accumulator.
Why this matters: Strategy disclosed it held 818,334 BTC as of May 3, 2026. That is an enormous chunk of the market, roughly 4.1% of circulating supply based on current circulation levels. When a holder that large starts openly talking about selling coins, even occasionally, it creates a new layer of risk for every Bitcoin holder.
The real problem is not that Strategy is about to dump all of its Bitcoin tomorrow. The problem is that Saylor is turning himself into a structural liability. If you keep accumulating a massive percentage of the supply, then start selling pieces of it to support dividends or capital structure needs, you introduce recurring fear into the market. Traders will know that one of the biggest holders on earth is no longer just a buyer.
And this is not happening in a vacuum. Strategy’s capital structure now includes a very large preferred stack with ongoing dividend obligations. Company disclosures show more than $13.5 billion of preferred equity outstanding and about $229.5 million of preferred dividends recorded in Q1 alone. That means there is a real reason for the market to take this seriously when Saylor says Bitcoin sales are one of the available tools.
Bottom line: this is bearish because of the precedent. Bitcoin’s biggest corporate bull has now publicly opened the door to selling. Even if the first sale is small, the signal matters. The moment the market believes Strategy can become a periodic seller, that can trigger fear, volatility, and sharper downside reactions whenever pressure builds.
Bitcoin continues pushing higher today and is now trading around $81,500. The market still looks very bullish short term, liquidity remains above current price, and overall it still appears more likely that Bitcoin pushes higher before seeing any major downside move.
That said, there is a major resistance zone directly ahead that almost nobody is paying attention to right now. Most traders are focused on the previous resistance level that we already broke through, acting as if that was the final barrier. It isn’t. We are now approaching a much more important level, and realistically we do not have much longer to break through it before the risk of rejection starts increasing significantly.
Part of the reason for this rally has been the improving macro news cycle this week. Markets have seen some relief from the ongoing Iran situation, with discussions around peace plans helping risk assets recover. If more positive headlines continue throughout the week, Bitcoin could absolutely continue higher and force a breakout through resistance.
However, structurally, this rally still resembles an extended relief rally rather than a clean long-term bullish expansion. Personally, I still find it difficult to have full confidence buying aggressively for the longer term while major geopolitical risks continue rumbling in the background.
Ironically, though, a further push higher from here could actually strengthen the larger Wyckoff accumulation structure that I have been tracking for months. If Bitcoin continues higher before the next major downturn, it would likely allow the downside target for the ultimate market bottom to adjust upwards from around $20,000 to roughly $35,000 instead.
I’ll post charts later today showing exactly what I mean.
For now:
• Market structure still looks bullish short term
• Liquidity still exists above price
• More likely to rise than immediately collapse
• But any major negative headline could reverse price instantly
At the moment, I remain positioned in long positions. I still believe longing the market right now is the correct trade.
That said, there is a major resistance zone directly ahead that almost nobody is paying attention to right now. Most traders are focused on the previous resistance level that we already broke through, acting as if that was the final barrier. It isn’t. We are now approaching a much more important level, and realistically we do not have much longer to break through it before the risk of rejection starts increasing significantly.
Part of the reason for this rally has been the improving macro news cycle this week. Markets have seen some relief from the ongoing Iran situation, with discussions around peace plans helping risk assets recover. If more positive headlines continue throughout the week, Bitcoin could absolutely continue higher and force a breakout through resistance.
However, structurally, this rally still resembles an extended relief rally rather than a clean long-term bullish expansion. Personally, I still find it difficult to have full confidence buying aggressively for the longer term while major geopolitical risks continue rumbling in the background.
Ironically, though, a further push higher from here could actually strengthen the larger Wyckoff accumulation structure that I have been tracking for months. If Bitcoin continues higher before the next major downturn, it would likely allow the downside target for the ultimate market bottom to adjust upwards from around $20,000 to roughly $35,000 instead.
I’ll post charts later today showing exactly what I mean.
For now:
• Market structure still looks bullish short term
• Liquidity still exists above price
• More likely to rise than immediately collapse
• But any major negative headline could reverse price instantly
At the moment, I remain positioned in long positions. I still believe longing the market right now is the correct trade.
❤1👍1
Bitcoin Open Interest Update
Over the past hour or so, we’ve seen Bitcoin open interest drop from roughly $28.0 billion to $27.9 billion, a decline of around $100 million.
That kind of drop in open interest often suggests that part of the rally is beginning to lose momentum, with some traders closing positions or reducing exposure. In my view, this likely signals that the short-term top of this pre US open move may now be in, at least for the next few hours.
Bitcoin may continue higher after the US open, but for now, it looks more likely that the market spends some time cooling off before attempting another move upward.
The key thing I’m watching now is money flow. If open interest starts rising again alongside stronger price action, that would suggest more capital is entering the market and traders are stepping back in with conviction. That would be a stronger signal for continuation.
For now, I’m still maintaining my Bitcoin long position, and I have also opened a long position on Shiba Inu.
As always, I’m watching the data carefully and managing trades based on market structure, open interest, and momentum.
Over the past hour or so, we’ve seen Bitcoin open interest drop from roughly $28.0 billion to $27.9 billion, a decline of around $100 million.
That kind of drop in open interest often suggests that part of the rally is beginning to lose momentum, with some traders closing positions or reducing exposure. In my view, this likely signals that the short-term top of this pre US open move may now be in, at least for the next few hours.
Bitcoin may continue higher after the US open, but for now, it looks more likely that the market spends some time cooling off before attempting another move upward.
The key thing I’m watching now is money flow. If open interest starts rising again alongside stronger price action, that would suggest more capital is entering the market and traders are stepping back in with conviction. That would be a stronger signal for continuation.
For now, I’m still maintaining my Bitcoin long position, and I have also opened a long position on Shiba Inu.
As always, I’m watching the data carefully and managing trades based on market structure, open interest, and momentum.
❤1🥰1
Ethereum Open Interest Update
In contrast to Bitcoin, Ethereum has seen a significant increase in open interest over the same period.
Over the past two hours, Ethereum open interest has increased by roughly $500 million, which is around a 4.5% increase. That is a major move and not something I would class as normal market noise.
This suggests that capital may now be rotating out of Bitcoin and into Ethereum and the wider altcoin market. If that rotation continues, we could see altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the next couple of hours heading into the US open.
Rising open interest usually means more traders are entering the market and more money is flowing into active positions. When that happens alongside positive price action, it often supports continuation rather than rejection.
For that reason, I would be very careful betting against this move right now. The data is showing strength, especially on Ethereum, and that could be the first sign that the next short-term opportunity is shifting from Bitcoin into altcoins.
This is exactly why we track open interest and money flow in real time. It helps us see where traders are positioning before the wider market fully reacts.
In contrast to Bitcoin, Ethereum has seen a significant increase in open interest over the same period.
Over the past two hours, Ethereum open interest has increased by roughly $500 million, which is around a 4.5% increase. That is a major move and not something I would class as normal market noise.
This suggests that capital may now be rotating out of Bitcoin and into Ethereum and the wider altcoin market. If that rotation continues, we could see altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the next couple of hours heading into the US open.
Rising open interest usually means more traders are entering the market and more money is flowing into active positions. When that happens alongside positive price action, it often supports continuation rather than rejection.
For that reason, I would be very careful betting against this move right now. The data is showing strength, especially on Ethereum, and that could be the first sign that the next short-term opportunity is shifting from Bitcoin into altcoins.
This is exactly why we track open interest and money flow in real time. It helps us see where traders are positioning before the wider market fully reacts.
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Oil Market Update
The oil market is getting hit hard today, and the main reason appears to be a sudden unwind of geopolitical risk.
Over the past few hours, traders have started pricing in the possibility that the U.S. and Iran may be moving closer to a framework agreement to end the current conflict. At the same time, Trump has paused the U.S. vessel escort plan through the Strait of Hormuz, which is being interpreted by the market as a potential sign that diplomacy is progressing.
That is extremely important because a large part of the recent oil rally was built on fear: fear of war escalation, fear of blocked shipping routes, fear of supply disruption, and fear of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Now that those fears are starting to ease, oil is losing the war premium that had been built into the price.
This is why Brent and WTI have both dropped sharply. It does not necessarily mean demand has collapsed. It means traders are rapidly repricing the risk of a major supply shock.
There are still bullish underlying factors, including large inventory draws and ongoing tension in the Middle East. However, right now the market is choosing to focus on the possibility of de-escalation.
For crypto, this is important because falling oil prices can reduce inflation pressure and improve risk sentiment. If oil continues falling, it may support a better macro backdrop for Bitcoin and altcoins heading into the U.S. session.
The key level to watch now is whether oil stabilises after this sharp drop. If it keeps falling, the market is likely pricing in peace. If it suddenly reverses, that would suggest traders are not fully convinced the geopolitical risk has disappeared.
The oil market is getting hit hard today, and the main reason appears to be a sudden unwind of geopolitical risk.
Over the past few hours, traders have started pricing in the possibility that the U.S. and Iran may be moving closer to a framework agreement to end the current conflict. At the same time, Trump has paused the U.S. vessel escort plan through the Strait of Hormuz, which is being interpreted by the market as a potential sign that diplomacy is progressing.
That is extremely important because a large part of the recent oil rally was built on fear: fear of war escalation, fear of blocked shipping routes, fear of supply disruption, and fear of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Now that those fears are starting to ease, oil is losing the war premium that had been built into the price.
This is why Brent and WTI have both dropped sharply. It does not necessarily mean demand has collapsed. It means traders are rapidly repricing the risk of a major supply shock.
There are still bullish underlying factors, including large inventory draws and ongoing tension in the Middle East. However, right now the market is choosing to focus on the possibility of de-escalation.
For crypto, this is important because falling oil prices can reduce inflation pressure and improve risk sentiment. If oil continues falling, it may support a better macro backdrop for Bitcoin and altcoins heading into the U.S. session.
The key level to watch now is whether oil stabilises after this sharp drop. If it keeps falling, the market is likely pricing in peace. If it suddenly reverses, that would suggest traders are not fully convinced the geopolitical risk has disappeared.
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Ethereum Cup & Handle Breakout
Ethereum is currently showing one of the cleaner bullish structures in the market right now.
We can see ETH forming what looks like a cup and handle formation, which is typically a continuation pattern that signals the market is preparing for another move higher.
On top of that, Ethereum has already broken above the top of its current short-term trading range. It has also broken out of the bull flag structure that formed after the recent move upward.
That makes this setup especially interesting because Ethereum is now showing multiple bullish signals at the same time:
A W reversal pattern, followed by a bull flag, alongside a broader cup and handle formation.
When you get multiple bullish formations stacking together like this, and price is already starting to break above the range, the probability of continuation increases significantly.
In simple terms, Ethereum looks strong here.
If this breakout continues to hold, I would expect ETH to keep pushing higher throughout the course of the day, especially if open interest continues rising and money keeps rotating into altcoins.
I am firmly positioned long here. The structure looks bullish, momentum is improving, and Ethereum appears to be setting up for further upside.
Ethereum is currently showing one of the cleaner bullish structures in the market right now.
We can see ETH forming what looks like a cup and handle formation, which is typically a continuation pattern that signals the market is preparing for another move higher.
On top of that, Ethereum has already broken above the top of its current short-term trading range. It has also broken out of the bull flag structure that formed after the recent move upward.
That makes this setup especially interesting because Ethereum is now showing multiple bullish signals at the same time:
A W reversal pattern, followed by a bull flag, alongside a broader cup and handle formation.
When you get multiple bullish formations stacking together like this, and price is already starting to break above the range, the probability of continuation increases significantly.
In simple terms, Ethereum looks strong here.
If this breakout continues to hold, I would expect ETH to keep pushing higher throughout the course of the day, especially if open interest continues rising and money keeps rotating into altcoins.
I am firmly positioned long here. The structure looks bullish, momentum is improving, and Ethereum appears to be setting up for further upside.
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Bitcoin Liquidation Heat Map Update
Looking at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map on Binance, there still appears to be more upside liquidity available today, especially heading into the US open.
There is some downside liquidity building just below $81,000, which is something to be aware of. That area could create a short-term wick or fake move lower before the market continues higher.
However, based on the current momentum, I do not think Bitcoin is likely to fully break down into that downside liquidity zone right now. It looks more like the market may try to fake out weaker longs, shake out late entries, and then continue pushing higher.
My current view is that momentum is still building, and if that continues into the US session, Bitcoin could be propelled toward the $84,000 region by the end of the trading day.
That would be a very bullish signal.
If Bitcoin can continue absorbing liquidity, hold above key short-term support, and then push into the higher liquidation levels, it would confirm that buyers are still in control and that the rally still has strength behind it.
For now, I am watching the heat map closely, but the upside setup still looks more attractive than the downside.
Looking at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map on Binance, there still appears to be more upside liquidity available today, especially heading into the US open.
There is some downside liquidity building just below $81,000, which is something to be aware of. That area could create a short-term wick or fake move lower before the market continues higher.
However, based on the current momentum, I do not think Bitcoin is likely to fully break down into that downside liquidity zone right now. It looks more like the market may try to fake out weaker longs, shake out late entries, and then continue pushing higher.
My current view is that momentum is still building, and if that continues into the US session, Bitcoin could be propelled toward the $84,000 region by the end of the trading day.
That would be a very bullish signal.
If Bitcoin can continue absorbing liquidity, hold above key short-term support, and then push into the higher liquidation levels, it would confirm that buyers are still in control and that the rally still has strength behind it.
For now, I am watching the heat map closely, but the upside setup still looks more attractive than the downside.
When we switch over to the general market liquidation heatmap, the setup becomes even more interesting.
The downside liquidity risk looks significantly lower than what we are seeing on Binance. That suggests a lot of the aggressive short positioning is Binance-specific, with traders trying to short this area and expecting Bitcoin to roll back over.
But that can easily become fuel for the next move higher.
The liquidity around $81,000 may be connected to further short liquidation risk higher up, especially around the $84,000 region. If Bitcoin keeps pushing, those shorts can start getting forced out, creating more buy pressure.
This is the key point:
Downside liquidity can become upside liquidity.
When traders short too aggressively and price moves against them, they are forced to buy back their positions. That is how Bitcoin can suddenly shoot up in a straight line. It is not always organic buying. Sometimes it is forced buying from traders getting liquidated.
So be careful here.
Bitcoin is holding above $81,000, the heatmap is showing clear upside liquidity, Binance traders appear heavily positioned for downside, and if they are wrong, the market can punish them very quickly.
This is starting to look like a proper bullish market.
The downside liquidity risk looks significantly lower than what we are seeing on Binance. That suggests a lot of the aggressive short positioning is Binance-specific, with traders trying to short this area and expecting Bitcoin to roll back over.
But that can easily become fuel for the next move higher.
The liquidity around $81,000 may be connected to further short liquidation risk higher up, especially around the $84,000 region. If Bitcoin keeps pushing, those shorts can start getting forced out, creating more buy pressure.
This is the key point:
Downside liquidity can become upside liquidity.
When traders short too aggressively and price moves against them, they are forced to buy back their positions. That is how Bitcoin can suddenly shoot up in a straight line. It is not always organic buying. Sometimes it is forced buying from traders getting liquidated.
So be careful here.
Bitcoin is holding above $81,000, the heatmap is showing clear upside liquidity, Binance traders appear heavily positioned for downside, and if they are wrong, the market can punish them very quickly.
This is starting to look like a proper bullish market.
Over on Ethereum, it is almost the exact same story.
The liquidation heatmap is showing a huge cluster of liquidity sitting just above the current ETH price, around the $2,435 level. That area is extremely important because there is roughly $1.6 billion in potential liquidations sitting there.
That is a massive liquidity target.
Because of that, I think Ethereum is very likely to continue pushing higher towards that zone. When a market has that much liquidity sitting just above price, it often acts like a magnet. Price starts moving towards it, shorts get pressured, and if the level gets attacked properly, the move can accelerate quickly.
This is not a setup I want to bet against.
This is one I would rather let ride.
When we switch over to the weekly Ethereum liquidation heatmap, the picture still looks bullish. There is more liquidity sitting above price than below, which suggests the upside remains the more attractive direction in the short term.
Yes, there is also liquidity building underneath the current price. But to me, that looks more like underwater short positioning building up as traders keep trying to fade the move.
That is not a major concern right now.
If anything, it can actually give Ethereum more upside punch later. The more shorts build up underneath and around current levels, the more fuel there is if ETH keeps pushing higher.
So the setup is simple:
Ethereum has major liquidity above price.
The $2,435 zone is the key target.
Roughly $1.6 billion in liquidations is sitting there.
The weekly heatmap still favours upside.
For me, this looks like a market that wants to continue higher. Not financial advice, but I would be very careful betting against Ethereum here.
The liquidation heatmap is showing a huge cluster of liquidity sitting just above the current ETH price, around the $2,435 level. That area is extremely important because there is roughly $1.6 billion in potential liquidations sitting there.
That is a massive liquidity target.
Because of that, I think Ethereum is very likely to continue pushing higher towards that zone. When a market has that much liquidity sitting just above price, it often acts like a magnet. Price starts moving towards it, shorts get pressured, and if the level gets attacked properly, the move can accelerate quickly.
This is not a setup I want to bet against.
This is one I would rather let ride.
When we switch over to the weekly Ethereum liquidation heatmap, the picture still looks bullish. There is more liquidity sitting above price than below, which suggests the upside remains the more attractive direction in the short term.
Yes, there is also liquidity building underneath the current price. But to me, that looks more like underwater short positioning building up as traders keep trying to fade the move.
That is not a major concern right now.
If anything, it can actually give Ethereum more upside punch later. The more shorts build up underneath and around current levels, the more fuel there is if ETH keeps pushing higher.
So the setup is simple:
Ethereum has major liquidity above price.
The $2,435 zone is the key target.
Roughly $1.6 billion in liquidations is sitting there.
The weekly heatmap still favours upside.
For me, this looks like a market that wants to continue higher. Not financial advice, but I would be very careful betting against Ethereum here.
Ethereum Open Interest Is Starting To Rise Again
Ethereum open interest is currently sitting around $13.37 billion.
Yesterday, ETH open interest peaked at roughly $14.1 billion around 11:00 UTC, before dropping all the way down to around $13 billion this morning.
That means Ethereum open interest dropped by approximately 7.8% from peak to bottom.
Since then, open interest has already recovered from $13 billion back up to $13.37 billion, which is a rise of roughly 2.85% from the low.
But here is the interesting part.
Ethereum’s price peaked yesterday around $2,421, bottomed around $2,311, and is now only trading around $2,326.
That means ETH price is only up around 0.65% from the bottom, while open interest is already up around 2.85% from the bottom.
So open interest has bounced more than 4x stronger than price.
This tells us market participation is increasing again. More positions are being opened. More leverage is coming back into the market. Yet price has barely moved.
That is not automatically bullish by itself, because rising open interest can be longs or shorts.
But the theory here is simple:
If open interest continues rising while price holds sideways instead of breaking lower, then Ethereum could be building pressure for the next move higher.
Money is coming back into the market.
Participation is rising.
Price is holding the lows.
For now, that makes the Ethereum setup look cautiously bullish.
Ethereum open interest is currently sitting around $13.37 billion.
Yesterday, ETH open interest peaked at roughly $14.1 billion around 11:00 UTC, before dropping all the way down to around $13 billion this morning.
That means Ethereum open interest dropped by approximately 7.8% from peak to bottom.
Since then, open interest has already recovered from $13 billion back up to $13.37 billion, which is a rise of roughly 2.85% from the low.
But here is the interesting part.
Ethereum’s price peaked yesterday around $2,421, bottomed around $2,311, and is now only trading around $2,326.
That means ETH price is only up around 0.65% from the bottom, while open interest is already up around 2.85% from the bottom.
So open interest has bounced more than 4x stronger than price.
This tells us market participation is increasing again. More positions are being opened. More leverage is coming back into the market. Yet price has barely moved.
That is not automatically bullish by itself, because rising open interest can be longs or shorts.
But the theory here is simple:
If open interest continues rising while price holds sideways instead of breaking lower, then Ethereum could be building pressure for the next move higher.
Money is coming back into the market.
Participation is rising.
Price is holding the lows.
For now, that makes the Ethereum setup look cautiously bullish.
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