Going into this morning’s session, I think we probably see an uptick at some point that makes me question the short position.
For me, the short starts to become weaker above $80,200, because that would mean Bitcoin is breaking back into the previous trading range.
I don’t think that is the most likely outcome, but I do think we can get close to $80,200 this morning.
So the position might go from $100,000 profit, back down to $40,000 profit, before hopefully turning into $300,000 profit if the market rolls over again.
That is the trade-off here.
The short is working, but I’m not expecting a straight line down.
For me, the short starts to become weaker above $80,200, because that would mean Bitcoin is breaking back into the previous trading range.
I don’t think that is the most likely outcome, but I do think we can get close to $80,200 this morning.
So the position might go from $100,000 profit, back down to $40,000 profit, before hopefully turning into $300,000 profit if the market rolls over again.
That is the trade-off here.
The short is working, but I’m not expecting a straight line down.
👍6❤2
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Price should reject off 80k if it doesn't it does make me question the trade, if i could i would add to the trade but im maxxed out
the calls to exit the trade i think are premature and you should zoom out
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WILL EXPLAIN INN THE NEXT POST
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Ethereum bounced back to around $2,272 this morning, so I’ve opened a short.
From my perspective, this looks like a fast relief bounce into resistance.
The failure area for this trade is somewhere between $2,296 and $2,307. If Ethereum breaks above $2,307, I do not think this is a trade we should be holding. At that point, it makes more sense to take the loss and reassess.
I can live with a move into $2,296–$2,297 if it starts rejecting from there, but I do not want to see it reclaiming the full range.
That is why I’ve only opened $1 million here. We’re trading with a $2 million account, so I still have room to adjust the position if needed.
I’m not sure yet whether this becomes a longer-term trade like the Bitcoin short, or whether it ends up being a shorter-term move. I’ll make that decision as the day develops.
For now, the reason for the trade is simple: Ethereum gave a sharp relief bounce into a level where I think the upside starts to look limited.
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From my perspective, this looks like a fast relief bounce into resistance.
The failure area for this trade is somewhere between $2,296 and $2,307. If Ethereum breaks above $2,307, I do not think this is a trade we should be holding. At that point, it makes more sense to take the loss and reassess.
I can live with a move into $2,296–$2,297 if it starts rejecting from there, but I do not want to see it reclaiming the full range.
That is why I’ve only opened $1 million here. We’re trading with a $2 million account, so I still have room to adjust the position if needed.
I’m not sure yet whether this becomes a longer-term trade like the Bitcoin short, or whether it ends up being a shorter-term move. I’ll make that decision as the day develops.
For now, the reason for the trade is simple: Ethereum gave a sharp relief bounce into a level where I think the upside starts to look limited.
The link to use 👇
https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=GNAW
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I hope you’ve got taxi fare, because we just did a full round trip.
This is today’s evening traders update.
Bitcoin has aggressively rallied back to the upside this afternoon and, in the process, has wiped out most of the open profit on the short position.
The move appears to be driven largely by the China-related headlines, and to be fair, we did expect some kind of bounce today. What I did not expect was for price to return to these levels this quickly.
Bitcoin is now making a serious attempt at a breakout. The key level was around $80,700, and we are now trading around $81,000, which is also roughly my entry.
As I said earlier, I am willing to tolerate some drawdown on this trade. The maximum loss I am prepared to take here is around $100,000. If it reaches that point, I will close the position, accept the loss, and reassess.
It is a massive swing back to the upside. No question about that. But I still think the downside setup remains more likely, and this move looks more like a short squeeze or bull trap than the start of a clean sustained breakout.
I could be wrong. If I am, it costs me $100,000, and we move on.
This is today’s evening traders update.
Bitcoin has aggressively rallied back to the upside this afternoon and, in the process, has wiped out most of the open profit on the short position.
The move appears to be driven largely by the China-related headlines, and to be fair, we did expect some kind of bounce today. What I did not expect was for price to return to these levels this quickly.
Bitcoin is now making a serious attempt at a breakout. The key level was around $80,700, and we are now trading around $81,000, which is also roughly my entry.
As I said earlier, I am willing to tolerate some drawdown on this trade. The maximum loss I am prepared to take here is around $100,000. If it reaches that point, I will close the position, accept the loss, and reassess.
It is a massive swing back to the upside. No question about that. But I still think the downside setup remains more likely, and this move looks more like a short squeeze or bull trap than the start of a clean sustained breakout.
I could be wrong. If I am, it costs me $100,000, and we move on.
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I do accept that the upside is now very much in play.
For Ethereum, the key level is $2,292. If ETH breaks above that level and, more importantly, closes an hourly candle above it, then I probably do not want to hold too much size on that short. A clean hourly close above $2,292 would be a break of the range.
Bitcoin is slightly different.
We have already pushed above the $80,700 level, but that level was never the strongest line in the sand. Right now, Bitcoin is testing the upper liquidity area, and I still do not fully buy that this move holds.
We have now closed one hourly candle around this area, but for me, the real confirmation would be a second hourly close outside the current trading range. If that happens, then fair enough, the market is showing strength and I have to respect it.
The top of the range I am watching is around $82,493. That is the level where this starts to become much harder to argue against.
I have also opened a $1.7 million Solana short from $92.12, but that is more of an opportunistic side trade. It could be a five-minute trade, and I may close it quickly. Same with ETH. These are smaller side positions, not the main focus.
The big trade is still Bitcoin.
That is the one I want to play properly, whether it ends up being a breakout or a breakdown. I am not married to either direction. I just want the real move.
Even if I take a $100,000 loss here, that does not change the plan. When the right trade pays, it can make seven figures.
That is the game.
For Ethereum, the key level is $2,292. If ETH breaks above that level and, more importantly, closes an hourly candle above it, then I probably do not want to hold too much size on that short. A clean hourly close above $2,292 would be a break of the range.
Bitcoin is slightly different.
We have already pushed above the $80,700 level, but that level was never the strongest line in the sand. Right now, Bitcoin is testing the upper liquidity area, and I still do not fully buy that this move holds.
We have now closed one hourly candle around this area, but for me, the real confirmation would be a second hourly close outside the current trading range. If that happens, then fair enough, the market is showing strength and I have to respect it.
The top of the range I am watching is around $82,493. That is the level where this starts to become much harder to argue against.
I have also opened a $1.7 million Solana short from $92.12, but that is more of an opportunistic side trade. It could be a five-minute trade, and I may close it quickly. Same with ETH. These are smaller side positions, not the main focus.
The big trade is still Bitcoin.
That is the one I want to play properly, whether it ends up being a breakout or a breakdown. I am not married to either direction. I just want the real move.
Even if I take a $100,000 loss here, that does not change the plan. When the right trade pays, it can make seven figures.
That is the game.
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It's very easy to get scared playing with big numbers, but if you piss like a puppy, stay on the porch and let the big dogs eat.
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It is very easy to get emotional when the numbers get big.
But that is exactly why position sizing, conviction, and risk management matter.
If the volatility makes you panic, then this is not the part of the market you should be playing in.
Big trades come with big swings. That is the game.
This is where it gets genuinely interesting.
The question now is simple: how confident am I, and do I sleep with this trade open?
I still believe the downside case is there. I still think the data supports it. Right now, Bitcoin is taking out an area of liquidity that had already started to show up on the heat map, but at the same time, we have now formed a much larger liquidity zone below.
I’ll attach the liquidation heat map to this post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
We have taken out a lot of the upside range now, but that does not mean we cannot push higher first. Around $82,000 is absolutely in play from here, and the next hour or so probably decides whether this is a trim, a cut, or a hold.
So for now, it is a waiting job.
If the position reaches around minus $100,000, I will close it, take the loss, and try again. That is the risk I accepted when I opened the trade.
I am willing to lose in order to win here.
The obvious question is: why didn’t I close when I was up $150,000?
The answer is because this is a $6 million position. $150,000 looks like a lot of money on the screen, but relative to the size of the trade, it was not my target. I trade by percentages and structure, not by getting emotional over the number.
On the surface, taking the profit probably looked like the easy decision. But I am not trying to play this as a quick in-and-out trade. I am trying to build a larger position that I can hold if the market structure breaks down properly.
If Bitcoin rolls over and starts moving towards the $60,000 range, a $6 million short can turn into a seven-figure trade.
That is the opportunity I am positioning for.
But that is exactly why position sizing, conviction, and risk management matter.
If the volatility makes you panic, then this is not the part of the market you should be playing in.
Big trades come with big swings. That is the game.
This is where it gets genuinely interesting.
The question now is simple: how confident am I, and do I sleep with this trade open?
I still believe the downside case is there. I still think the data supports it. Right now, Bitcoin is taking out an area of liquidity that had already started to show up on the heat map, but at the same time, we have now formed a much larger liquidity zone below.
I’ll attach the liquidation heat map to this post so you can see exactly what I’m looking at.
We have taken out a lot of the upside range now, but that does not mean we cannot push higher first. Around $82,000 is absolutely in play from here, and the next hour or so probably decides whether this is a trim, a cut, or a hold.
So for now, it is a waiting job.
If the position reaches around minus $100,000, I will close it, take the loss, and try again. That is the risk I accepted when I opened the trade.
I am willing to lose in order to win here.
The obvious question is: why didn’t I close when I was up $150,000?
The answer is because this is a $6 million position. $150,000 looks like a lot of money on the screen, but relative to the size of the trade, it was not my target. I trade by percentages and structure, not by getting emotional over the number.
On the surface, taking the profit probably looked like the easy decision. But I am not trying to play this as a quick in-and-out trade. I am trying to build a larger position that I can hold if the market structure breaks down properly.
If Bitcoin rolls over and starts moving towards the $60,000 range, a $6 million short can turn into a seven-figure trade.
That is the opportunity I am positioning for.
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