I think this chart is a more accurate representation of how things look right now.
Bitcoin is currently forming a bear flag, but this is only the 10-minute chart, so the structure can change quickly.
The key level here is around $79,700.
If Bitcoin breaks through that level, we likely move back up and retest the bottom of the next range. That area matters because we have two levels meeting at the same point: the yellow resistance line and the downward-sloping blue dotted trendline.
That confluence is sitting pretty much where price is trading now.
If Bitcoin breaks above this current resistance area, the next liquidity level on the VRVP is around $80,200.
If we push into $80,200 and reject from there, then the bear flag remains valid and I would expect price to continue lower, potentially resetting back towards the bottom of the current trading range over the next few hours.
The other reason I’m leaning towards a possible breakdown becomes clearer when we zoom out to the 1-hour chart, so I’ll show that next.
Bitcoin is currently forming a bear flag, but this is only the 10-minute chart, so the structure can change quickly.
The key level here is around $79,700.
If Bitcoin breaks through that level, we likely move back up and retest the bottom of the next range. That area matters because we have two levels meeting at the same point: the yellow resistance line and the downward-sloping blue dotted trendline.
That confluence is sitting pretty much where price is trading now.
If Bitcoin breaks above this current resistance area, the next liquidity level on the VRVP is around $80,200.
If we push into $80,200 and reject from there, then the bear flag remains valid and I would expect price to continue lower, potentially resetting back towards the bottom of the current trading range over the next few hours.
The other reason I’m leaning towards a possible breakdown becomes clearer when we zoom out to the 1-hour chart, so I’ll show that next.
Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart
This is the Bitcoin one-hour chart.
At this point, we have clearly lost market structure. In theory, that means the easy part of the move is done and we have to be careful.
$80,900 still looks like a reasonable target from here.
The issue is that if Bitcoin does push into $80,900, there is a decent chance it also runs towards $81,900, because that would be the technical top of the range.
That would also complete the bull flag structure.
There is another possibility as well. Bitcoin could be forming a wider cup and handle, and this current move could simply be the start of the handle.
So again, we need to zoom out and check the higher timeframe.
This is how you actually make money trading. You do not just look at one chart and decide you are right. You check everything, build the full picture, and then make the decision from there.
This is the Bitcoin one-hour chart.
At this point, we have clearly lost market structure. In theory, that means the easy part of the move is done and we have to be careful.
$80,900 still looks like a reasonable target from here.
The issue is that if Bitcoin does push into $80,900, there is a decent chance it also runs towards $81,900, because that would be the technical top of the range.
That would also complete the bull flag structure.
There is another possibility as well. Bitcoin could be forming a wider cup and handle, and this current move could simply be the start of the handle.
So again, we need to zoom out and check the higher timeframe.
This is how you actually make money trading. You do not just look at one chart and decide you are right. You check everything, build the full picture, and then make the decision from there.
❤3
Long-Term Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart
This is the longer-term Bitcoin one-hour chart.
You can clearly see the potential cup and handle structure forming here.
The important part is that the handle still needs to develop properly. If it does, then Bitcoin could easily come back down towards the $70,000 region.
A move like that would obviously put this trade into a very strong profit position, but it would not be a great outcome for the broader market. Nobody really wants Bitcoin to move lower here, which is usually why you have to take the possibility seriously.
The key point is this:
Bitcoin has now lost a support level it had been holding since 2 April.
Today is 14 May, so this is the first time in around six weeks that price has traded below that support.
That matters.
It is not something I want to ignore, because the daily candle has already closed below the level. So from a technical perspective, that support has now been lost.
The structure has changed, and that is why I’m still taking the downside setup seriously.
This is the longer-term Bitcoin one-hour chart.
You can clearly see the potential cup and handle structure forming here.
The important part is that the handle still needs to develop properly. If it does, then Bitcoin could easily come back down towards the $70,000 region.
A move like that would obviously put this trade into a very strong profit position, but it would not be a great outcome for the broader market. Nobody really wants Bitcoin to move lower here, which is usually why you have to take the possibility seriously.
The key point is this:
Bitcoin has now lost a support level it had been holding since 2 April.
Today is 14 May, so this is the first time in around six weeks that price has traded below that support.
That matters.
It is not something I want to ignore, because the daily candle has already closed below the level. So from a technical perspective, that support has now been lost.
The structure has changed, and that is why I’m still taking the downside setup seriously.
🔥1
Solana Looks Weak Here
Next one is Solana.
At the time of this screenshot, Solana is trading around $91.14.
The first thing that stands out is the liquidity below the current price. There is a clear cluster sitting around $83–$84, and then the next major level below that is much lower, around $57.
This chart is on a logarithmic scale, so you can plot it slightly differently, but the broader point is the same.
Solana has still not properly tested the low of this range.
That suggests there is still a real risk of a larger drawdown, potentially around 25%, if this structure starts breaking down properly.
On top of that, Solana is also forming a large bear flag.
Bear flags do eventually end, and when they do, the reaction can be aggressive. But normally before the real bullish reversal comes, you get that painful capitulation move first.
The moment where people start questioning whether crypto is finished again.
We have not really had that yet.
So for now, Solana still looks weak. The structure does not look good, and the downside liquidity is still the area I’m paying most attention to.
Next one is Solana.
At the time of this screenshot, Solana is trading around $91.14.
The first thing that stands out is the liquidity below the current price. There is a clear cluster sitting around $83–$84, and then the next major level below that is much lower, around $57.
This chart is on a logarithmic scale, so you can plot it slightly differently, but the broader point is the same.
Solana has still not properly tested the low of this range.
That suggests there is still a real risk of a larger drawdown, potentially around 25%, if this structure starts breaking down properly.
On top of that, Solana is also forming a large bear flag.
Bear flags do eventually end, and when they do, the reaction can be aggressive. But normally before the real bullish reversal comes, you get that painful capitulation move first.
The moment where people start questioning whether crypto is finished again.
We have not really had that yet.
So for now, Solana still looks weak. The structure does not look good, and the downside liquidity is still the area I’m paying most attention to.
🔥2
Going into this morning’s session, I think we probably see an uptick at some point that makes me question the short position.
For me, the short starts to become weaker above $80,200, because that would mean Bitcoin is breaking back into the previous trading range.
I don’t think that is the most likely outcome, but I do think we can get close to $80,200 this morning.
So the position might go from $100,000 profit, back down to $40,000 profit, before hopefully turning into $300,000 profit if the market rolls over again.
That is the trade-off here.
The short is working, but I’m not expecting a straight line down.
For me, the short starts to become weaker above $80,200, because that would mean Bitcoin is breaking back into the previous trading range.
I don’t think that is the most likely outcome, but I do think we can get close to $80,200 this morning.
So the position might go from $100,000 profit, back down to $40,000 profit, before hopefully turning into $300,000 profit if the market rolls over again.
That is the trade-off here.
The short is working, but I’m not expecting a straight line down.
👍6❤2
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Price should reject off 80k if it doesn't it does make me question the trade, if i could i would add to the trade but im maxxed out
the calls to exit the trade i think are premature and you should zoom out
🔥1
NEW TRADE ALERT
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The link to use 👇
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Ethereum bounced back to around $2,272 this morning, so I’ve opened a short.
From my perspective, this looks like a fast relief bounce into resistance.
The failure area for this trade is somewhere between $2,296 and $2,307. If Ethereum breaks above $2,307, I do not think this is a trade we should be holding. At that point, it makes more sense to take the loss and reassess.
I can live with a move into $2,296–$2,297 if it starts rejecting from there, but I do not want to see it reclaiming the full range.
That is why I’ve only opened $1 million here. We’re trading with a $2 million account, so I still have room to adjust the position if needed.
I’m not sure yet whether this becomes a longer-term trade like the Bitcoin short, or whether it ends up being a shorter-term move. I’ll make that decision as the day develops.
For now, the reason for the trade is simple: Ethereum gave a sharp relief bounce into a level where I think the upside starts to look limited.
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From my perspective, this looks like a fast relief bounce into resistance.
The failure area for this trade is somewhere between $2,296 and $2,307. If Ethereum breaks above $2,307, I do not think this is a trade we should be holding. At that point, it makes more sense to take the loss and reassess.
I can live with a move into $2,296–$2,297 if it starts rejecting from there, but I do not want to see it reclaiming the full range.
That is why I’ve only opened $1 million here. We’re trading with a $2 million account, so I still have room to adjust the position if needed.
I’m not sure yet whether this becomes a longer-term trade like the Bitcoin short, or whether it ends up being a shorter-term move. I’ll make that decision as the day develops.
For now, the reason for the trade is simple: Ethereum gave a sharp relief bounce into a level where I think the upside starts to look limited.
The link to use 👇
https://www.yubit.com/register?inviteCode=GNAW
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I hope you’ve got taxi fare, because we just did a full round trip.
This is today’s evening traders update.
Bitcoin has aggressively rallied back to the upside this afternoon and, in the process, has wiped out most of the open profit on the short position.
The move appears to be driven largely by the China-related headlines, and to be fair, we did expect some kind of bounce today. What I did not expect was for price to return to these levels this quickly.
Bitcoin is now making a serious attempt at a breakout. The key level was around $80,700, and we are now trading around $81,000, which is also roughly my entry.
As I said earlier, I am willing to tolerate some drawdown on this trade. The maximum loss I am prepared to take here is around $100,000. If it reaches that point, I will close the position, accept the loss, and reassess.
It is a massive swing back to the upside. No question about that. But I still think the downside setup remains more likely, and this move looks more like a short squeeze or bull trap than the start of a clean sustained breakout.
I could be wrong. If I am, it costs me $100,000, and we move on.
This is today’s evening traders update.
Bitcoin has aggressively rallied back to the upside this afternoon and, in the process, has wiped out most of the open profit on the short position.
The move appears to be driven largely by the China-related headlines, and to be fair, we did expect some kind of bounce today. What I did not expect was for price to return to these levels this quickly.
Bitcoin is now making a serious attempt at a breakout. The key level was around $80,700, and we are now trading around $81,000, which is also roughly my entry.
As I said earlier, I am willing to tolerate some drawdown on this trade. The maximum loss I am prepared to take here is around $100,000. If it reaches that point, I will close the position, accept the loss, and reassess.
It is a massive swing back to the upside. No question about that. But I still think the downside setup remains more likely, and this move looks more like a short squeeze or bull trap than the start of a clean sustained breakout.
I could be wrong. If I am, it costs me $100,000, and we move on.
🤯2❤1
I do accept that the upside is now very much in play.
For Ethereum, the key level is $2,292. If ETH breaks above that level and, more importantly, closes an hourly candle above it, then I probably do not want to hold too much size on that short. A clean hourly close above $2,292 would be a break of the range.
Bitcoin is slightly different.
We have already pushed above the $80,700 level, but that level was never the strongest line in the sand. Right now, Bitcoin is testing the upper liquidity area, and I still do not fully buy that this move holds.
We have now closed one hourly candle around this area, but for me, the real confirmation would be a second hourly close outside the current trading range. If that happens, then fair enough, the market is showing strength and I have to respect it.
The top of the range I am watching is around $82,493. That is the level where this starts to become much harder to argue against.
I have also opened a $1.7 million Solana short from $92.12, but that is more of an opportunistic side trade. It could be a five-minute trade, and I may close it quickly. Same with ETH. These are smaller side positions, not the main focus.
The big trade is still Bitcoin.
That is the one I want to play properly, whether it ends up being a breakout or a breakdown. I am not married to either direction. I just want the real move.
Even if I take a $100,000 loss here, that does not change the plan. When the right trade pays, it can make seven figures.
That is the game.
For Ethereum, the key level is $2,292. If ETH breaks above that level and, more importantly, closes an hourly candle above it, then I probably do not want to hold too much size on that short. A clean hourly close above $2,292 would be a break of the range.
Bitcoin is slightly different.
We have already pushed above the $80,700 level, but that level was never the strongest line in the sand. Right now, Bitcoin is testing the upper liquidity area, and I still do not fully buy that this move holds.
We have now closed one hourly candle around this area, but for me, the real confirmation would be a second hourly close outside the current trading range. If that happens, then fair enough, the market is showing strength and I have to respect it.
The top of the range I am watching is around $82,493. That is the level where this starts to become much harder to argue against.
I have also opened a $1.7 million Solana short from $92.12, but that is more of an opportunistic side trade. It could be a five-minute trade, and I may close it quickly. Same with ETH. These are smaller side positions, not the main focus.
The big trade is still Bitcoin.
That is the one I want to play properly, whether it ends up being a breakout or a breakdown. I am not married to either direction. I just want the real move.
Even if I take a $100,000 loss here, that does not change the plan. When the right trade pays, it can make seven figures.
That is the game.
👍3