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I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $6 MILLION. MARKET STRUCTURE IS BREAKING.

Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/9sSwlcqSirY

I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $6 MILLION. MARKET STRUCTURE IS BREAKING.

Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/9sSwlcqSirY

NEW VIDEO LIVE

LOOK NOW, I’VE GOT A WHOPPER ON THE LINE 🎣

NO TAKING PROFITS YET

HOLD.

Thats my plan.

50% SL at entry

Crazy

If I was cashing out, I’m not, I’d probably take 50% off here.

At $75,000, you’d be mad not to bank a big chunk of profit. That’s a monster move.

But I didn’t enter this trade to clip a decent win and walk away.

I came here for the jackpot.

So I’m holding.

I really believe in the upside to the downside all the information we learned the past weeks kind of points to it failing at least initially with a rejection thats pretty normal and in line with wyckoff

Morning analysis time. We’re currently sitting around $110,000 profit on the trade, which is a very solid start. Now the job is to go through the data properly and decide whether today’s move is more likely to continue lower, or whether we’re about to see a reversal. I’ll be looking at the key levels, funding, open interest, long/short ratios and liquidity to work out where the market is most likely heading next.

Bitcoin is currently trading in the mid $77,000s.

On the 24-hour liquidation heat map, the main downside level is around $78,000.

Based on yesterday’s analysis, if Bitcoin loses $79,000, we should expect a sharper move lower. That is the key risk level for the morning.

That said, I’m not convinced it happens immediately unless we get a negative headline or market-moving news during the Asian session.

There is also still significant liquidity above the current price, so before making a firm call, I want to check the higher timeframe liquidation heat map and see where the bigger liquidity clusters are sitting.

On the one-week Bitcoin liquidation heat map, the picture is a bit clearer.

Above $82,500, there is a large amount of liquidity, but around the current range there is not much sitting directly above price.

Most of the nearer liquidity is below us.

We are also much closer to those downside liquidity levels than we are to the larger upside cluster above $82,500.

From my perspective, the ideal move is that Bitcoin continues grinding lower into the mid $70,000s. If that happens, this position should move from a good profit into a few hundred thousand dollars in profit.

Looking at roughly 10 days of 1-hour Bitcoin open interest, the data looks fairly neutral.

The previous low in this range, apart from the recent move down to $78,700, was around $79,229.

At that point, Bitcoin open interest was sitting around $26 billion.

Right now, open interest is around $26.2 billion, and price is trading fairly close to that same area.

So in the short term, Bitcoin open interest is not showing a major increase here. That matters because on previous dips, we have seen open interest rise more clearly.

Yesterday we spoke about Ethereum, where open interest does look like it is building more short interest.

Bitcoin is different for now.

The Bitcoin open interest data does not look especially bullish or bearish. It looks neutral.

Looking at futures funding this morning, Bitcoin is not showing negative funding across the major exchanges.

Binance, OKX, Bybit, KuCoin, MEXC, BingX, Gate, Bitget, LBank — none of them are negative for Bitcoin. The only one showing negative funding is BitUnix, so overall there does not appear to be heavy short interest in Bitcoin right now.

That is different from parts of the wider market, especially Solana, where funding still looks more bearish.

Ethereum has also cooled off slightly compared to yesterday, but there is something important to keep in mind. Funding rates tend to normalise over time. Yesterday, we saw negative funding increase, which suggested more people were entering short positions.

We do not have a perfect way of knowing whether those shorts have fully exited yet, but it does look like a lot of them are still holding. If positioning had fully reset, you would normally expect funding to move back towards normal levels fairly quickly.

Across the wider market, there is still a lot of bearish positioning. On this screen, green means traders are shorting, and red means traders are longing. There is far more green than red across the larger coins.

For Bitcoin specifically, the only exchange showing meaningful long-side funding is KuCoin, and KuCoin does not carry enough volume for that to matter much.

So the read from funding is simple: Bitcoin itself does not look heavily shorted, but the wider market still shows a clear bearish bias.

This is where Ethereum gets interesting.

Ethereum recently bottomed around $2,235 and is now trading around $2,264.

At the same time, Ethereum open interest has moved from around $12.81 billion yesterday to roughly $13.49 billion now.

The important part is when that open interest increased.

Most of the rise came while Ethereum’s price was moving lower, not higher. That matters because rising open interest while price is falling usually suggests new short positions are being opened.

We saw the same thing yesterday as well. Open interest moved from around $12.64 billion to $13.51 billion, while Ethereum fell from roughly $2,344 to $2,259.

That does not look like normal long accumulation. It looks much more like a large short position being built into Ethereum.

I do not know whether this is one entity or several, but the behaviour is worth paying attention to because it keeps repeating.

Now let’s check the Ethereum liquidation heat map.

On the one-month heat map, Ethereum has a huge liquidation level down around $1,865.

That is billions of dollars in liquidity sitting below the market.

In the current range, Ethereum is still sitting in a bit of a no man’s land, but it has started moving closer to the downside liquidity. You can see price beginning to hug that lower area.

The main takeaway from this heat map is that there is clearly more meaningful liquidity below the current price than above it.

So the next step is to move over to the chart, plot the key levels properly, and work out where this short thesis fails.

Go up before down, or down before up?

This is the current Bitcoin chart.

There are a few different ways this can play out from here, so I don’t want to treat this as locked in.

Yes, the trade is currently around $100,000+ in profit, but that does not mean we are guaranteed to walk away with all of it. Profit can disappear quickly if the market turns, so we still have to read the data properly.

On this chart, I’m showing the high of the current range.

That level is around $80,973, basically $81,000.

It also lines up with the main VRVP liquidity area on the side of the chart, which makes it an important level to pay attention to.

At the same time, Bitcoin does look like it is forming a bear flag here.

So this chart gives the basic range, but I want to move over to a cleaner chart now and break that structure down properly.

I think this chart is a more accurate representation of how things look right now.

Bitcoin is currently forming a bear flag, but this is only the 10-minute chart, so the structure can change quickly.

The key level here is around $79,700.

If Bitcoin breaks through that level, we likely move back up and retest the bottom of the next range. That area matters because we have two levels meeting at the same point: the yellow resistance line and the downward-sloping blue dotted trendline.

That confluence is sitting pretty much where price is trading now.

If Bitcoin breaks above this current resistance area, the next liquidity level on the VRVP is around $80,200.

If we push into $80,200 and reject from there, then the bear flag remains valid and I would expect price to continue lower, potentially resetting back towards the bottom of the current trading range over the next few hours.

The other reason I’m leaning towards a possible breakdown becomes clearer when we zoom out to the 1-hour chart, so I’ll show that next.

Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart

This is the Bitcoin one-hour chart.

At this point, we have clearly lost market structure. In theory, that means the easy part of the move is done and we have to be careful.

$80,900 still looks like a reasonable target from here.

The issue is that if Bitcoin does push into $80,900, there is a decent chance it also runs towards $81,900, because that would be the technical top of the range.

That would also complete the bull flag structure.

There is another possibility as well. Bitcoin could be forming a wider cup and handle, and this current move could simply be the start of the handle.

So again, we need to zoom out and check the higher timeframe.

This is how you actually make money trading. You do not just look at one chart and decide you are right. You check everything, build the full picture, and then make the decision from there.