This is the simplified bull case for Bitcoin right now.
The way I’m viewing it is very simple: there are two key resistance levels above current price.
The first is the short-term downward sloping resistance line. That level is sitting roughly $500 above current price, around $81,500. If Bitcoin breaks through that, the next key level is around $82,000.
For me, $82,000 is the major invalidation level.
If Bitcoin gets above that level and holds, then my short thesis becomes much weaker. At that point, I would be looking at a meaningful unrealised loss, likely somewhere around $60,000, depending on position size and execution.
That is uncomfortable, but it is still inside the risk parameters I set for this trade. I have already said that I am willing to risk up to around $100,000 on this setup, so I can tolerate some adverse movement if the structure still makes sense.
If Bitcoin breaks above $82,000, the market moves back into a much less clear liquidity zone. From there, upside liquidity could start acting like a magnet, and the bullish argument would be that Bitcoin can continue pushing higher, potentially even towards the wider upside liquidity zones.
That is the risk of the short trade.
However, the reason I am still leaning bearish is because the broader data does not yet convince me that this recovery pump is structurally strong. ETF flows have turned negative, funding shows shorts are crowded but not yet extreme, and open interest across the market suggests traders are still positioning defensively.
On top of that, the broader macro backdrop still feels fragile. The Michael Burry thesis is still active: markets are stretched, AI-related valuations look extremely expensive, and risk assets can remain overvalued for a long time before they finally correct.
So to be clear, I would not be shocked if Bitcoin revisits $81,500 before the US open. That is a very realistic short-term move.
But for the bigger picture, I still think the more important level is to the downside.
If Bitcoin loses $79,900, the market opens up towards $77,000, and that is the trade I am trying to capture.
So the bull case is simple:
Bitcoin needs to break $81,500, then reclaim $82,000.
Until that happens, I still believe the downside setup is more attractive than the upside setup.
The way I’m viewing it is very simple: there are two key resistance levels above current price.
The first is the short-term downward sloping resistance line. That level is sitting roughly $500 above current price, around $81,500. If Bitcoin breaks through that, the next key level is around $82,000.
For me, $82,000 is the major invalidation level.
If Bitcoin gets above that level and holds, then my short thesis becomes much weaker. At that point, I would be looking at a meaningful unrealised loss, likely somewhere around $60,000, depending on position size and execution.
That is uncomfortable, but it is still inside the risk parameters I set for this trade. I have already said that I am willing to risk up to around $100,000 on this setup, so I can tolerate some adverse movement if the structure still makes sense.
If Bitcoin breaks above $82,000, the market moves back into a much less clear liquidity zone. From there, upside liquidity could start acting like a magnet, and the bullish argument would be that Bitcoin can continue pushing higher, potentially even towards the wider upside liquidity zones.
That is the risk of the short trade.
However, the reason I am still leaning bearish is because the broader data does not yet convince me that this recovery pump is structurally strong. ETF flows have turned negative, funding shows shorts are crowded but not yet extreme, and open interest across the market suggests traders are still positioning defensively.
On top of that, the broader macro backdrop still feels fragile. The Michael Burry thesis is still active: markets are stretched, AI-related valuations look extremely expensive, and risk assets can remain overvalued for a long time before they finally correct.
So to be clear, I would not be shocked if Bitcoin revisits $81,500 before the US open. That is a very realistic short-term move.
But for the bigger picture, I still think the more important level is to the downside.
If Bitcoin loses $79,900, the market opens up towards $77,000, and that is the trade I am trying to capture.
So the bull case is simple:
Bitcoin needs to break $81,500, then reclaim $82,000.
Until that happens, I still believe the downside setup is more attractive than the upside setup.
👍12❤2
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👍2❤1
I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $6 MILLION. MARKET STRUCTURE IS BREAKING.
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/9sSwlcqSirY
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/9sSwlcqSirY
YouTube
I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $6 MILLION. MARKET STRUCTURE IS BREAKING.
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | BITCOIN NEWS | BITCOIN ETF FLOWS | BITCOIN LIQUIDATION HEATMAP
Bitcoin is sitting at a critical level, and today I break down exactly why I am now short Bitcoin with a $6 million position.
In this video, I cover…
Bitcoin is sitting at a critical level, and today I break down exactly why I am now short Bitcoin with a $6 million position.
In this video, I cover…
I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $6 MILLION. MARKET STRUCTURE IS BREAKING.
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/9sSwlcqSirY
Watch Now👇
https://youtu.be/9sSwlcqSirY
YouTube
I SHORTED BITCOIN WITH $6 MILLION. MARKET STRUCTURE IS BREAKING.
BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS | BITCOIN PREDICTION | BITCOIN NEWS | BITCOIN ETF FLOWS | BITCOIN LIQUIDATION HEATMAP
Bitcoin is sitting at a critical level, and today I break down exactly why I am now short Bitcoin with a $6 million position.
In this video, I cover…
Bitcoin is sitting at a critical level, and today I break down exactly why I am now short Bitcoin with a $6 million position.
In this video, I cover…
🔥4
If I was cashing out, I’m not, I’d probably take 50% off here.
At $75,000, you’d be mad not to bank a big chunk of profit. That’s a monster move.
But I didn’t enter this trade to clip a decent win and walk away.
I came here for the jackpot.
So I’m holding.
At $75,000, you’d be mad not to bank a big chunk of profit. That’s a monster move.
But I didn’t enter this trade to clip a decent win and walk away.
I came here for the jackpot.
So I’m holding.
🔥4❤1
I really believe in the upside to the downside all the information we learned the past weeks kind of points to it failing at least initially with a rejection thats pretty normal and in line with wyckoff
Morning analysis time. We’re currently sitting around $110,000 profit on the trade, which is a very solid start. Now the job is to go through the data properly and decide whether today’s move is more likely to continue lower, or whether we’re about to see a reversal. I’ll be looking at the key levels, funding, open interest, long/short ratios and liquidity to work out where the market is most likely heading next.
👍2
Bitcoin is currently trading in the mid $77,000s.
On the 24-hour liquidation heat map, the main downside level is around $78,000.
Based on yesterday’s analysis, if Bitcoin loses $79,000, we should expect a sharper move lower. That is the key risk level for the morning.
That said, I’m not convinced it happens immediately unless we get a negative headline or market-moving news during the Asian session.
There is also still significant liquidity above the current price, so before making a firm call, I want to check the higher timeframe liquidation heat map and see where the bigger liquidity clusters are sitting.
On the 24-hour liquidation heat map, the main downside level is around $78,000.
Based on yesterday’s analysis, if Bitcoin loses $79,000, we should expect a sharper move lower. That is the key risk level for the morning.
That said, I’m not convinced it happens immediately unless we get a negative headline or market-moving news during the Asian session.
There is also still significant liquidity above the current price, so before making a firm call, I want to check the higher timeframe liquidation heat map and see where the bigger liquidity clusters are sitting.
On the one-week Bitcoin liquidation heat map, the picture is a bit clearer.
Above $82,500, there is a large amount of liquidity, but around the current range there is not much sitting directly above price.
Most of the nearer liquidity is below us.
We are also much closer to those downside liquidity levels than we are to the larger upside cluster above $82,500.
From my perspective, the ideal move is that Bitcoin continues grinding lower into the mid $70,000s. If that happens, this position should move from a good profit into a few hundred thousand dollars in profit.
Above $82,500, there is a large amount of liquidity, but around the current range there is not much sitting directly above price.
Most of the nearer liquidity is below us.
We are also much closer to those downside liquidity levels than we are to the larger upside cluster above $82,500.
From my perspective, the ideal move is that Bitcoin continues grinding lower into the mid $70,000s. If that happens, this position should move from a good profit into a few hundred thousand dollars in profit.
Looking at roughly 10 days of 1-hour Bitcoin open interest, the data looks fairly neutral.
The previous low in this range, apart from the recent move down to $78,700, was around $79,229.
At that point, Bitcoin open interest was sitting around $26 billion.
Right now, open interest is around $26.2 billion, and price is trading fairly close to that same area.
So in the short term, Bitcoin open interest is not showing a major increase here. That matters because on previous dips, we have seen open interest rise more clearly.
Yesterday we spoke about Ethereum, where open interest does look like it is building more short interest.
Bitcoin is different for now.
The Bitcoin open interest data does not look especially bullish or bearish. It looks neutral.
The previous low in this range, apart from the recent move down to $78,700, was around $79,229.
At that point, Bitcoin open interest was sitting around $26 billion.
Right now, open interest is around $26.2 billion, and price is trading fairly close to that same area.
So in the short term, Bitcoin open interest is not showing a major increase here. That matters because on previous dips, we have seen open interest rise more clearly.
Yesterday we spoke about Ethereum, where open interest does look like it is building more short interest.
Bitcoin is different for now.
The Bitcoin open interest data does not look especially bullish or bearish. It looks neutral.