Sitrep for Nov. 1-3, 2023:

– Zaluzhnyi analyzes the current state of the war in a lengthy essay;
– AFU reportedly execute double-tap strike on Donetsk railway station;
– Russian MoD reports the destruction of imaginary Ukrainian howitzers.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-nov-1-3-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 2-3, 2023:

MoD shortens recovery period allocated to injured paratroopers; soldiers decreasingly likely to be diagnosed with combat-related concussions to reduce compensation payouts; doctors increasingly look for work in war zone for higher earnings.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-2-3-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 3-5, 2023:

Pro-government media in Tatarstan say local draft offices are discouraging the signing of contracts; women and children killed in collision with military truck in Crimea; children send entrenching tools to the frontline on Unity Day.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-3-5-2023

Sitrep for Nov. 3-6, 2023:

– Russia strikes Odesa and 128th Mountain Assault Brigade ceremony;
– Ukraine damages Russian Askold corvette in Kerch;
– AFU finally receive Archer self-propelled howitzers;
– Russian peacekeepers nick Armenian IFVs in Karabakh.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-nov-3-6-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 5-6, 2023:

Authorities issue electronic and paper notifications instructing recipients to report to draft offices; MoD offers 1M rubles ($10,800) to enlist for contract service in and around Moscow; 3rd drone manufacturing plant opens in Izhevsk.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-5-6-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 6-7, 2023:

New law prohibits transfer of debt obligations from deceased soldiers to their relatives; mobilized soldiers families call for troop rotations at Moscow rally; Yakutsk to honor organizations that helped mobilize the most soldiers.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-6-7-2023

Sitrep for Nov. 6-8, 2023:

– AFU ferry APC across the Dnipro to left-bank bridgehead for first time;
– 3 Airborne Forces colonels confirmed killed in Nov. 1 strike on the Group of Troops “Dnepr” HQ;
– German MoD downplays urgency of providing long-range missiles to Ukraine.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-nov-6-8-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 7-8, 2023:

17 y/o Ukrainian evacuated from occupied Mariupol conscripted into RuAF; individual sentenced to 17 years in prison for murdering female student gets presidential pardon; Russian universities launch "internet police" training program.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-7-8-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 8-9, 2023:

New bill grants private security firms right to neutralize drone threats; Chelyabinsk authorities dissuaded mobilized soldiers wives from staging protests demanding their return home; decline in public support for mobilized soldiers.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-8-9-2023

Sitrep for Nov. 8-10, 2023:

– New video suggests latest version of Lancet drone can overcome wire nets and cage armor;
– HMMWV ferried across Dnipro River destroyed near Krynky;
– Pro-Russian bloggers try to reassure relatives of mobilized soldiers.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-nov-8-10-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 9-10, 2023:

"Atone for their crimes with blood on the battlefield," Peskov commented on Putin's pardon of the murderer of a female student; the ban on mobilizing convicts is finally lifted; orphan Bohdan Ermokhin, deported to Russia, may return home to Ukraine.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-9-10-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 10-12, 2023:

Krasnoyark mayor's office bans mobilized soldiers wives rally citing COVID restrictions; 19 train cars derail in an explosion near Ryazan; school teachers advised to turn all classes into “Talking About Important Things.”

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-10-12-2023

Sitrep for Nov. 10-13, 2023:

– Ukraine multiplies acts of sabotage and conducts drone attacks on military targets on land and sea, with 2 landing crafts reportedly sunk;
– Mobilized soldiers relatives in both Ukraine and Russia are starting to protest.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-nov-10-13-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 12-13, 2023:

Mass gatherings prohibited in Novosibirsk to defend “rights and freedoms”; Kursk region border areas resettlement program limited to civil servants; schoolchildren hand-knit socks for soldiers who lost limbs.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-12-13-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 13-14, 2023:

Tougher penalties to be implemented for draft evasion; mobilized soldier on trial for desertion robs microcredit branch during court recess; Putin exempts murderer of female student from paying moral compensation to her family.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-13-14-2023

Sitrep for Nov. 13-15, 2023:

– Ukraine claims Black Sea Fleet paused Kalibr missile strikes due to logistical disruptions caused by relocation to Novorossiysk;
– Russia mulls tightening penalties for draft evasion;
– Putin pardons organizer of journalist Anna Politkovskaya murder.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-nov-13-15-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 14-15, 2023:

Mobilized soldiers relatives apply to hold protest on Nov. 25 in Moscow; Sobyanin says 2023 contract soldier recruitment target achieved ahead of schedule; ex-soldier conducting “Lesson of Courage” in school later assaulted a married couple.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-14-15-2023

Mobilization Volunteer Summary, November 15-16, 2023:

Procedure for obtaining repeating and rifled firearms simplified for war veterans; Russian officials found guilty of offenses are sent to occupied regions as punishment; Primosrky region schoolchildren to undergo 5-day military drills.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-nov-15-16-2023

The math doesn’t add up. CIT conducted an analysis of open source data to determine what is really happening with volunteer fighter recruitment

Last week, Dmitry Medvedev [Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council] once again reported on the progress of the recruitment campaign to find contract soldiers for the war against Ukraine. He claimed that 410,000 individuals had joined the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces between Jan. 1 and Nov. 9. If Medvedev is to be believed, the authorities would have thus met their objectives for 2023. Their plan, according to various estimates, was to recruit between 400,000 and 415,000 people.

Under closer examination, however, the situation “on the ground” does not look so good for Russia. In the middle of August, for instance, a video recorded during a meeting with employees of a Tolyatti company shows an official discussing both recruitment targets and the true state of affairs. Apparently, the city was handed down a target of 2,000 recruits, but managed to sign up just over 250, or only 12.5% of the required number, four or five months after the start of the campaign.

On Nov. 11, the Free Yakutia foundation published the recording of a closed-door meeting of officials held in September, during which the military commissar of Yakutia [Russia’s constituent republic] presented data on the fulfillment of the recruitment plan by various districts in the republic. We have compiled this data into a table, adding the population figures of each district to enhance clarity. As shown in our table, the republic aimed to recruit at least 3,322 people (slightly more in reality, as the military commissar did not provide data for all districts). This figure corresponds to approximately 470,000 people when extrapolated nationwide. The plan for Yakutia might have been above average, potentially aiming to compensate for shortfalls in regions like Moscow, where, as stated by Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, the plan was fulfilled by recruiting 22,000 people—a number evidently disproportionate to the city's demographic capabilities. However, by September, Yakutia had recruited less than a third of the required 3,322 people, specifically 1,017 individuals, or only 30.6% of the plan.

In light of these two sources, it becomes evident that the actual recruitment rate significantly lags behind the data regularly voiced by Medvedev, and the target remains far from being met. The recent campaign to increase sign-on bonuses for potential contract soldiers serves as additional confirmation. In the past two weeks alone, at least five regions have introduced additional or increased existing bonuses paid upon signing a contract. While this practice has been ongoing throughout the recruitment campaign, the concurrent year-end initiatives in several federal subjects indicate that local authorities are facing challenges in meeting their recruitment quotas. We believe that the aim of such measures is not necessarily to achieve a 100% goal—officials must realize this is impossible—but rather to surpass their counterparts in other regions and avoid ending up at the bottom of the KPI list, where the recruitment of contract soldiers significantly influences the rankings.

In summary, a range of various OSINT data confirms our belief that the number of recruited contract soldiers declared by Medvedev is far from reality. Simultaneously, to obtain a more complete picture, it is important to understand whether the data announced by regional authorities includes mobilized soldiers, volunteer fighters and conscripts signing contracts with the Ministry of Defense. If you have any information on this topic, along with verified recruitment data in a particular region or district, please feel free to share it with us through our anonymous Telegram bot.

Sitrep for Nov. 15-17, 2023:

– Ukrainian drone strikes ammunition depot in Volgograd region;
– RuAF conduct several douple-tap strikes in Zaporizhzhia region;
– Remote Russian Far East settlements left without medevacs as aircraft redirected towards war needs.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-nov-15-17-2023