Conflict Intelligence Team (en)
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Sitrep for Sept. 6–7, 2023:

Our team has investigated the missile strike on Kostiantynivka, a town in the Donetsk region, on Sept. 6, during which 16 people were killed and 33 were injured, and determined that the missile came from the northwest.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-6-7
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 6-7, 2023:

Governors seeking reelection increasingly avoid discussing the war; men in camouflage and balaclavas do ticket checks on public transport in Chelyabinsk; very few people manage to get removed from the military register online.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-6-7
Sitrep for Sept. 7–8, 2023:

– AFU makes some progress along left bank of Dnipro in Zaporizhzhia region;
– US to supply Ukraine additional armored vehicles and cluster munitions;
– Vehicle carrying Russian security forces reportedly targeted in occupied Oleshky.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-7-8
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Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 7-8, 2023:

Experts agree second wave of mobilization will happen sooner or later; in Cuba individuals suspected of recruiting fighters for the war in Ukraine face up to 30 years in prison; polling stations have been set up in combat zones.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-7-8
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 8-10, 2023:

Russian authorities significantly increase national security spending in 2023; independent observer and electoral commission member received draft notices during elections; Russian voters use ballots to protest against war.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-8-10
Sitrep for Sept. 8–11, 2023:

New details from the Kostiantynivka missile crash site firmly establish that the missile was coming from the northwest. However, there is still room for one other scenario—a Russian air-to-air missile.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-8-11
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 10-11, 2023:

Putin signs decree granting monthly allowance to military pensioners participating in the war; National Guard recruits pardoned Wagner Group convicts; another Izhevsk shopping mall to be converted into drone manufacturing facility.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-10-11
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 11-12, 2023:

Putin evades question on the likelihood of a new wave of mobilization; weapons trafficking criminal case dropped after defendant made donation to war effort; media watchdog blocks website listing killed Belgorod residents.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-11-12
Sitrep for Sept. 11–13, 2023:

– The AFU enter Opytne, north of Donetsk Airport;
– RuAF 1430th Regiment receives five T-55A tanks;
– Podolyak presents new theory on the Kostiantynivka strike;
– Putin and Kim Jong Un meet, likely to discuss ammunition supply deal.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-11-13
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 12-13, 2023:

MoD approves list of medical conditions disqualifying for contract service; bill on mobilized soldiers service length submitted to State Duma; study finds enlisting for the war reduces sentences 97% of the time.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-12-13
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 13-14, 2023:

Employers barred from firing widows of soldiers killed in Ukraine; state-backed media urged not to quote official denials of new mobilization; students required to buy 4,000-ruble ($41) atlas showing occupied territories as part of Russia.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-13-14
Sitrep for Sept. 13–15, 2023:

– Ukraine scores several hits in Crimea, overwhelming SAM defenses—Minsk landing ship and Rostov-on-Don submarine both damaged;
– AFU make progress south of Bakhmut;
– Romania builds shelters against Russian Shahed drones.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-13-15
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 14-15, 2023:

Mobilized soldiers to return home only after war ends, no rotations planned; priests to promote sober lifestyle among war widows; a third Izhevsk shopping mall to be converted into drone manufacturing plant.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-14-15
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 15-17, 2023:

Three soldiers killed in grenade explosion at private residence in Voronezh region; Khanty-Mansi volunteer fighters to get 1,595,000 rubles ($16.5K) in one year; Belgorod hardware stores now sell Czech hedgehogs.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-15-17
CIT has obtained exclusive photographs of the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don, taken after she was struck at the Sevastopol Shipyard

According to our interpretation of the photos, the submarine appears to have sustained two hits. The first one damaged her bow from above, which was previously stated by experts based on satellite imagery. The second one penetrated the starboard side of the hull somewhat behind the conning tower. It is not visible on the satellite imagery.

Norwegian independent naval analyst Thord Are Iversen, to whom we provided these photos, believes that both hits pierced the pressure hull. As the result, the torpedo and crew compartments were damaged, as well as possibly the auxiliary spaces behind the latter and the batteries. The extent of the blast and the fire damage is not clear from the external photos. Full sustained damage would depend on whether the hatches between the compartments were sealed or not.

In the expert's opinion, such extensive damage surely takes the submarine out of the active service for the rest of the conflict. Although repairs are theoretically possible, they would likely require transportation of the submarine to the Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg. However, repairs of this scale are most likely cost-inefficient, and it is more practical to construct a new vessel of the same class, especially as production on this project is ongoing.
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Sitrep for Sept. 15–18, 2023:

– Zelenskyy congratulates soldiers on recapture of Klishchiivka;
– Two grain ships arrive in Odesa region;
– JDAM strike reportedly kills Commander of 31st Air Assault Brigade;
– Nova Kakhovka strike may be another RuAF FAB UMPK malfunction.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-15-18
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Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 17-18, 2023:

Fines won’t be enforced for ignoring electronic draft notices during fall conscription; court convicts first ever woman of draft evasion; Ministry of Labor orders 230,000 “Family member of deceased soldier” certificates.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-17-18
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 18-19, 2023:

MIN. of Digital Development plans for unified military register by 2025; Moscow police to identify men not enlisted in military register; ex-organized crime lieutenant becomes face of military recruitment campaign.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-18-19
Sitrep for Sept. 18–20, 2023:

– NYT investigation into Kostiantynivka tragedy confirms missile Ukrainian origin;
– Russian Lancet drone reaches AFU airbase 70km away from the frontline;
– Grain dispute strains Ukraine relations with Poland and Slovakia.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-18-20
Mobilization Volunteer Summary, September 19-20, 2023:

State Duma member suggests Russian spring conscription could follow new rules, deeming a transition to a fully professional army impractical; State Duma and Senate members prohibited from visiting occupied territories.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-19-20