After-Parade Report: Russian V-day Vehicle Numbers Decreasing for Second Year in a Row
Last year, the CIT team, together with volunteers, had already counted military vehicles participating in regional Victory Day parades and managed to cover 20 cities. This year we have analyzed footage of 56 parades. Thus, we were able to examine almost every major parade that took place in Russia on May 9.
The main Russian parade on the Red Square was held without tracked vehicles for the first time in decades, which triggered a new wave of talks about Russia’s military vehicles issues (which certainly exist). But, as we wrote last year, the regional parades provide a more representative dataset.
Last year, the CIT team, together with volunteers, had already counted military vehicles participating in regional Victory Day parades and managed to cover 20 cities. This year we have analyzed footage of 56 parades. Thus, we were able to examine almost every major parade that took place in Russia on May 9.
The main Russian parade on the Red Square was held without tracked vehicles for the first time in decades, which triggered a new wave of talks about Russia’s military vehicles issues (which certainly exist). But, as we wrote last year, the regional parades provide a more representative dataset.
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Last week, all eyes were on Russia's big parade in Moscow, which featured much fewer vehicles than last year, those missing presumably engaged in the war in Ukraine. But, as @tom_bullock_ noted, a lot more information can be gleaned from smaller, regional…
As can be seen on the graphs, the downtrend in the total number of vehicles continues: in the year 2021, prior to the invasion, more than 2000 vehicles took part in the parades, but in 2022 the number plummeted to less than 1300 units, and in 2023 it barely exceeded 900. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that the drop is largely due to the cancellation of some parades — out of a total of 56 cities, 9 opted not to hold the event in 2023. Most of these cities (6) are located in the Southern Military District where decline was the most apparent, from 336 vehicles in 2022 to 157 in 2023. In the Western Military District, the drop was also quite noticeable — more than 100 vehicles or 25% of last year’s total. This is largely due to the Moscow parade falling 52 vehicles short of the 2022 number. At the same time, in the Central and Eastern Military Districts, the decline turned out to be quite negligible.
In terms of different types of military vehicles, we will single out air defence systems — contrary to last year, the decrease was quite noticeable this time, likely due to numerous UAV attacks on infrastructure facilities inside Russia. The number of artillery pieces, both tube artillery and MLRS, was also in decline, but not as steep as in 2022. The trend for tanks and armored fighting vehicles remained the same, and even reversed for MRAPs and IMVs. The number of non-combat vehicles almost didn’t change (specifically command, control and communications equipment, radar, electronic warfare, engineering equipment and logistics vehicles). Meanwhile, the number of various missile systems and unarmored vehicles has slightly increased.
To sum this up, we can confidently say that the downtrend in the total number of vehicles displayed at the parades remains strong. At the same time, the shortage of equipment has not yet reached the level when there is literally nothing to showcase during such events. Based on this, it can be assumed that the abandonment of the tradition of displaying tracked vehicles during the Moscow parade was dictated not by their shortage — if necessary, the vehicles could be found, even in expense of parades in other cities — but mainly by political reasoning (the presence of modern armored vehicles at the 2022 parade, combined with rather modest successes at the front, had resulted in criticism from the "patriotic public").
For those who is interested in detailed analysis, here is a link to our report.
For those who is interested in detailed analysis, here is a link to our report.
Volunteer Mobilization brief May 12–14:
Legal experts provided guidance on what constitutes draft evasion; mobilized soldiers are being hold in a basement for non-compliance with orders in the Zaporizhzhia region; mobilized men from Ulyanovsk wish to join the Wagner Group.
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-may-12-14
Legal experts provided guidance on what constitutes draft evasion; mobilized soldiers are being hold in a basement for non-compliance with orders in the Zaporizhzhia region; mobilized men from Ulyanovsk wish to join the Wagner Group.
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-may-12-14
Teletype
Mobilization in Russia for May 12–14, 2023 CIT volunteer summary
The Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces adopted two new documents, which exclude from combat...
Sitrep for May 12–15:
– The AFU strikes with Storm Shadow missiles in Luhansk;
– In the Bryansk region, the Russian Aerospace Forces continued to lose aircraft and crews;
– Prigozhin draws arrows on the map.
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-may-12-15
– The AFU strikes with Storm Shadow missiles in Luhansk;
– In the Bryansk region, the Russian Aerospace Forces continued to lose aircraft and crews;
– Prigozhin draws arrows on the map.
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-may-12-15
Teletype
Sitrep for May 12–15 (as of 10:00 a.m.)
In our opinion, it can be stated that Ukraine has now begun full-fledged preparations for a large-scale counteroffensive.
Volunteer Mobilization brief May 14–15:
A military commissar from Karelia called for more efforts to advertise contract-based service; servicemen will face a 10 to 15-years prison sentence if they join the Wagner Group; convicts from three penal colonies have been recruited in Tyumen by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-may-14-15
A military commissar from Karelia called for more efforts to advertise contract-based service; servicemen will face a 10 to 15-years prison sentence if they join the Wagner Group; convicts from three penal colonies have been recruited in Tyumen by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-may-14-15
Teletype
Mobilization in Russia for May 14–15, 2023 CIT volunteer summary
Vladimir Putin signed a decree, which grants foreigners the right to apply for Russian citizenship, when they sign a yearlong military...
Sitrep for May 15–16:
– During the attack on Kyiv the vast majority of missiles were shot down;
– Russian forces hit residential areas of Kherson with thermite incendiary munitions again;
– European countries announced new military aid packages to Ukraine and the start of training of Ukrainian pilots.
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-may-15-16
– During the attack on Kyiv the vast majority of missiles were shot down;
– Russian forces hit residential areas of Kherson with thermite incendiary munitions again;
– European countries announced new military aid packages to Ukraine and the start of training of Ukrainian pilots.
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-may-15-16
Teletype
Sitrep for May 15–16 (as of 8:30 a.m.)
On May 15, as a result of the RuAF strike on Nikopol, three people were injured. According to Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional...
Volunteer Mobilization brief, May 15–16:
Amendments to the law "On Martial Law" have been introduced to the State Duma; there is a growing trend of holding meetings "about mobilization" in the Moscow region; a mobilized soldier has been tortured and hung from a tree by fellow servicemen.
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-may-15-16
Amendments to the law "On Martial Law" have been introduced to the State Duma; there is a growing trend of holding meetings "about mobilization" in the Moscow region; a mobilized soldier has been tortured and hung from a tree by fellow servicemen.
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-may-15-16
Teletype
Mobilization in Russia for May 15–16, 2023 CIT volunteer summary
On May 16, the working group on the "special military operation," headed by the Federation Council [upper house of Russia\'s Federal...
Sitrep for May 16–17:
– During yesterday's missile attack on Kyiv, a Patriot air defense system was damaged;
– A combatant from the United States was killed in Bakhmut;
– In the lower reaches of the Dnipro, a flood caused by a damage to a hydroelectric dam flooded Russian trenches.
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-may-16-17
– During yesterday's missile attack on Kyiv, a Patriot air defense system was damaged;
– A combatant from the United States was killed in Bakhmut;
– In the lower reaches of the Dnipro, a flood caused by a damage to a hydroelectric dam flooded Russian trenches.
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-may-16-17
Teletype
Sitrep for May 16–17 (as of 10:00 a.m.)
On May 16, the Mykolaiv region was attacked with 3M-54 Kalibr cruise missiles which were shot down.
Volunteer Mobilization brief, May 16–17:
A State Duma member proposed solving the problem of stray dogs by sending them to war; the Russian Supreme Court is preparing a revised guide to crimes against military service; a preschooler from Krasnoyarsk declaimed a poem praising Putin.
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-may-16-17
A State Duma member proposed solving the problem of stray dogs by sending them to war; the Russian Supreme Court is preparing a revised guide to crimes against military service; a preschooler from Krasnoyarsk declaimed a poem praising Putin.
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-may-16-17
Teletype
Mobilization in Russia for May 16–17, 2023 CIT volunteer summary
Head of Russia\'s Ministry of Finance Maksut Shadayev stated that the common register of Russians subject to military service "will...