Conflict Intelligence Team (en)
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Sitrep for January 20–21:

— Pro-Russian sources claim a noticeable advance of Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia axis (with no confirmation so far);
— Germany still refuses to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine but permitted other countries to train Ukrainian soldiers to operate them;
— The US will recognize the Wagner Group as an international criminal organization.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-20-21
Volunteer Mobilization brief Jan 20–21:

Full mobilization if the conflict expands beyond Ukraine; mobilized Russians to return home after the end of the war or on Putin's order; Sony PlayStation and candies for Chechen kids who lost their fathers in the war.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-20-21
Sitrep for January 21-23:

– In the Svatove direction, heavy fighting continues for Novoselivske;
– Germany would not interfere with the supply of Leopard tanks;
– Lithuania is donating a €2 million autotransformer to Ukraine.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-21-23
Volunteer Mobilization brief Jan 21–23:

The “partial” mobilization decree is still in effect; ex-migrants who received a Russian passport are not allowed to leave the country; the Agenstvo outlet found out whom, most likely, the Pantsir-S1 systems were protecting.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-21-23
Sitrep for January 23–24:

– RU forces continue to attack Novoselivske in the Svatove direction;
– NATO: all countries having Leopard tanks can start preparing them for transfer to Ukraine;
– Ukrainian fundraiser to repair and modernize a captured trophy tank.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-23-24
Volunteer Mobilization brief Jan 23–24:

A bill was submitted to Duma to assist draft offices in mandatory military registration; in Zaporizhzhia, mobilized soldiers have been kept in a pit for 2 days; plans to introduce a digital queue to cross the Russian border.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-23-24
Sitrep for January 24–25:

– First reports about intensified fighting in the Vuhledar direction;
@nytimes: the US is actively investing in the mass production of artillery shells for Ukraine;
– In 2022, there was a 24% rise in criminal cases related to weapons.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-24-25
Volunteer Mobilization brief Jan 24–25:

Putin is considering mobilizing another 200K men; in Izhevsk, more than 4,5K residents have petitioned against drone production; the number of soldiers killed in Makiivka exceeds the official number of 89 claimed by MoD.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-24-25
Sitrep for January 25–26:

– A representative of the eastern group of the AFU announced the withdrawal of forces from Soledar;
– Wagner Group’s cemetery increased seven-fold between November and January;
– Putin considers mobilizing another 200,000 men.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-25-26
Sitrep for January 26–27:

– the strategic importance of Vuhledar;
– Lockheed Martin intends to increase production of the F-16 aircraft to backfill the needs;
– successful tests of Ukrainian 22S2 Bohdana 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-26-27
Volunteer Mobilization brief Jan 26–27:

Mobilize soldiers were taken to a forest line and forced to sign contracts; the deaths of 823 have been confirmed; schools near Bryansk were instructed to prepare for the accommodation of troops.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-26-27
Sitrep for January 27–28:

– Video showing Vuhledar landscape that looks almost like a lunar one;
– Russian forces attacked Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region;
– The US imposed sanctions on a Chinese company that sold satellite radar images to the Wagner Group.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-27-28
Volunteer Mobilization brief Jan 27–28:

State Duma continues working on 20 new bills on draft deferral eligibility; mobilized soldiers have to sign a document to confirm their support of the “special military operation”; 700 mln rubles allocated for supporting participants of the war in Ukraine.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-27-28
Volunteer Mobilization brief Jan 28–29:

Residents of the Pskov region are offered to go to the war; mobilized soldiers have got Batman style balaclavas; students of a boarding school in the Kemerovo region are made to assist the families of the mobilized.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-28-29
Sitrep for January 28–30:

– The Wagner Group announced on Jan. 28 that it had captured Blahodatne;
– On the evening of Jan. 29, Russian forces attacked Kharkiv;
– Ukrainian forces hit a railway bridge in Starobohdanivka.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-28-30
Volunteer Mobilization brief Jan 29–30:

The court sentenced a mobilized man to one year in penal colony; vocational school students are being coerced into signing an informed consent form to “voluntarily” join a boot camp; the prosecution asked for 13 years in a penal colony for filming the arson of a draft office.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-29-30
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Sitrep for January 30–31:

– Supply route from Siversk to Bakhmut is no longer available;
– Russian MoD offered to supply weapons, military vehicles, and technical resources to volunteer regiments;
– Increased fighting continues on the Zaporizhzhia axis.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-30-31
Volunteer Mobilization brief Jan 30–31:

Prosecutor General of Russia reported on more than 9000 illegally mobilized citizens returned home; draft offices in Russia will identify those who want to fight in Ukraine; with no possibility to maintain personal hygiene draftees were infested with lice and itch mites.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-30-31
Sitrep for January 31 – February 1:

– Vuhledar: the pace of Russian attacks slowed down.
– A new package of military aid from the US to Ukraine, including GLSDBs, and their potential impact;
– First “Terrorist Act” verdict for setting fire to a draft office.

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-31-feb-1