📝 Imagine being an Ukrainian Patriot operator

> Watching a dozen(+) interceptors self-destruct last night in Bahrain
> U.S. not giving you at least some rounds to defend your capital
> Knowing that after this disaster you are even less likely to receive Patriots

Consequences of being allied with the U.S.

📝 Shivan Mahendrarajah: Fun part is that Iran depleting AD in Israel’s defensive layers. No US/NATO ships in Persian Gulf (1st layer gone); few AD will be left in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE (2d layer); Jordan (3rd layer). Leaves just KSA, Israel, and US ships in Med.

The road to al-Quds is clearing

🔗 Patarames

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Additional U.S. F-16 Fighter Jets are getting deployed to the region, refueled by KC-135 Tankers GOLD11/GOLD21/GOLD31/GOLD41.

Interesting.. they have already something like 2-300 fighters in the region, did something happen to the F-16s at Muwaffaq ?

📝: With the rapid depletion of PAC-2/3 interceptors for the Patriot system, GCC states and the U.S. are becoming reliant on fighter jets and attack helicopters to deal with drones and missiles

🔗 MenchOSINT

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 Iran may have successfully destroyed a HIMARS launcher last night on the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border

Geolocation by: MenchOSINT

@CIG_telegram

🚫🚢 With the resumption of the U.S. blockade, traffic on the Iranian lane in the Strait of Hormuz, which formed the bulk of commercial vessel transits, has all but disappeared.

Now, zero ships from either side are transiting the Strait.

@CIG_telegram

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸🇧🇭 New damage from the recent Iranian strikes has been identified at NSA Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet HQ.

Satellite imagery shows a dish antenna at 26°12'27.17"N, 50°36'37.38"E, likely used as a communications terminal, was struck during the recent attacks.

🔗 Egypt's Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT)

🇰🇼 Google is blurring close up satellite images of the Shuaiba Power Station, Shuaiba desalinisation Plant and several petrochemical refineries and the Shuaiba Port Authority.

The facilities came under Iranian attacks in the past weeks.

@CIG_telegram

🇰🇼 Google is also blurring the water station and desalinisation plant in the Port of Shuwaikh.

@CIG_telegram

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Due to recent advances, Russian forces have now established control over large parts of the tactical ridgeline between the Bakhmut-Seversk line and the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka line, putting the last 3 cities of this so-called "fortress belt" at major risk.

With the battle for Konstantinovka now in its final stages, Russia is developing an offensive in arguably the most crucial part of the entire frontline. Once they are able to capture the entirety of this ridgeline, all of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk will be within range of barrel artillery, and the battles for the cities will effectively start. This, combined with a push from Konstantinovka and even the Dobropolye area, will be a major setback for Ukraine, and could mark the beginning of the end for these last Donbas cities.

Right now, special attention is being made by the Russian command on clearing the remaining heavily fortified Ukrainian positions between Seversk and Slavyansk, in order to complete their goal of capturing this crucial line of tactical heights. This will allow Russia to bring forward drone operators, barrel artillery, and MLRS to within range of new areas, and allow for deep DRG infiltrations, possibly as far as the eastern outskirts of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk itself.

At the same time, the fall of Konstantinovka and the beginning of battles for Alexeevo-Druzhkovka will pose a major threat to Druzhkovka, as the near-continuous and unbroken line of urban areas stretching from Knostantinovka to Druzhkovka, and even to Kramatorsk, provides cover for additional deep Russian infiltrations.

As of now, forward Russian assault groups are just 5.5 km from the Kramatorsk Airport on the eastern outskirts of the city. The situation is critical, and without counterattacks, it will continue to massively worsen over the coming weeks and months.

🔗 AMK Mapping

🇮🇷⚔️🇰🇼 Kuwaiti soldiers wounded in Iranian drone strikes on military facilities

The Kuwaiti army confirmed on Friday that several soldiers sustained injuries following a series of retaliatory Iranian drone strikes targeting multiple military facilities and bases across the country.

In the wake of the attacks, Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Khaled Daraj Saad al-Shuraian and Deputy Chief of General Staff Air Vice Marshal Sabah Jaber al-Ahmad Al-Sabah conducted hospital visits to assess the condition of the wounded personnel from the Kuwaiti Land Forces.

The strikes occurred as part of a significant expansion of regional hostilities between Tehran and Washington. Following its latest series of retaliatory operations, Tehran officially announced that its forces had targeted US military assets stationed across several nations, including Kuwait, Oman, Syria, Jordan, Bahrain, and Qatar.

🔗 The Cradle

🇮🇷🇺🇸🚫🚢 With the resumption of the U.S. blockade and Iran blocking the Strait for U.S.-allied commercial vessels, the number of crossings from July 15th to July 16th fell to just 23, with just 8 ships crossing the Strait on July 16th.

This is a return to the numbers seen in the 2nd half of March to prior to the signing of the MoU.

Most crossings happened using the Iranian lane.

@CIG_telegram

☪️ Gulf economies face sharper 2026 contractions as Hormuz disruptions hit exports

A Reuters poll found that most Gulf economies are expected to face deeper contractions this year than previously forecast before recovering in 2027, as fading hopes for a swift US-Iran de-escalation leave the Strait of Hormuz largely disrupted.

The 7-16 July survey of economists was conducted after many revised down expectations that Gulf shipping and energy exports would quickly return to normal.

Kuwait and Qatar recorded the largest downward revisions, with both economies now expected to contract 8.1% this year, compared with earlier forecasts of declines of 4.4% and 6.0% respectively in an April poll.

Bahrain’s economy is projected to shrink 5.1%, compared with the previous estimate of a 2.9% contraction, while the UAE economy is now expected to decline 0.5% after economists had previously forecast stagnation.

Saudi Arabia and Oman remain the only GCC economies expected to post growth this year, benefiting from lower exposure to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Saudi Arabia can redirect oil exports through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, while Oman’s main export terminal lies outside the strait.

Saudi Arabia’s growth forecast was cut to 1.4% from 2.6%, below the IMF’s latest projection of 1.7%, while Oman’s outlook was upgraded to 3.1% from 2.2%.

Forecasts showed significant uncertainty, ranging from a 4.3% contraction to 4.1% growth for Saudi Arabia, and from a 2.1% decline to 4.1% expansion for Oman.

Economists expect a strong rebound across the Gulf in 2027, with Kuwait forecast to lead growth at 10.1%, followed by Qatar at 7.8%, Saudi Arabia at 6.0%, the UAE at 5.8%, Bahrain at 4.5%, and Oman at 2.8%.

🔗 The Cradle

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 "Ukraine is struggling to ship grain via the Black Sea as Moscow steps up strikes on commercial vessels in retaliation for a week of heavy attacks by Ukraine on Russian shipping.

Russian drone attacks on the port of Odesa, Ukraine’s biggest seaport, have caused storage capacity to drop by a third, according to maritime security company Ambrey, while shipowners are refusing to send ships into the area for fear of being struck. Some traders have paused buying in Odesa, according to analysts...

As a result, she said, domestic purchase prices at Ukrainian ports have “vanished”, and shipowners are no longer providing freight quotes...

Some ships have paused outside Ukrainian waters to reassess the risk of Russian drone and missile attacks, while insurance premiums have soared, according to Pavel Sosnovsky, analyst at Ukraine-based International Seaborne Market (ISM). “Several underwriters have suspended war risk cover for voyages to Ukrainian ports altogether.”

https://archive.fo/20260716200426/https://www.ft.com/content/5c64e7a5-fe26-4f14-8d77-1d0f1d8a30d3

🇵🇰🇰🇼⚡️ — Pakistan is negotiating an expanded defence pact with Kuwait in exchange for energy cooperation and investment, according to Reuters.

➡️ The talks are still at an early stage and could be affected by the U.S.-Iran tensions.

➡️ Kuwait is seeking expanded military cooperation, including aircraft, drones, air defence systems, and other capabilities, though Pakistani officials said deploying combat troops is not currently being considered.