🇨🇳 China’s Factory Hub Faces Gas Price Shock as War Tightens Supply

The Chinese industrial hub of Guangdong, an economic powerhouse comparable in size to South Korea, has seen some electricity prices almost double due in part to constraints on the supply of natural gas from the Middle East.

The coastal province hosts the country’s largest fleet of gas-fired power stations, leaving it particularly vulnerable to a war that has choked-off shipments from the Persian Gulf. Spot rates climbed to nearly 680 yuan ($100) per megawatt-hour on April 14 — a three-year high — from an average of around 350 yuan in the previous month.

Guangdong’s industrial users have locked in about 80% of their electricity needs at far lower prices via annual contracts, said Sharon Feng, special advisor at Azure International, a green energy consultancy. But the spot market is a crucial venue for generators to meet fluctuations in daily demand. Tighter gas supply is among the factors dragging prices higher.

Guangdong has spearheaded China’s electricity market reforms, and requires all of its generators to compete through the province’s power exchange.

Even before the conflict, seaborne liquefied natural gas was a more expensive option for producing electricity. Current LNG deliveries to Guangdong have fallen nearly 40% from the same time last year, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Kpler. The upshot is that gas now costs over 60% more than renewable sources, according to the power exchange.

Local power giant Guangdong Energy Group Co. has a 10-year contract to buy LNG from QatarEnergy, a deal that’s been suspended since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively blocked to traffic. Gas power accounted for about 22% of the province’s total capacity, according to BloombergNEF.

Guangdong is also home to about one fifth of China’s gas import facilities. Those terminals are increasingly likely to fall idle as the province leans more heavily on coal, the country’s main power source, to meet peak summer demand, said Penny Chen, a senior director at Fitch Ratings.

Electricity consumption in the export-oriented province rose 7.6% in the first quarter, reflecting a recovery in industrial demand and strong growth in the data centers that serve artificial intelligence. That’s testing the local government’s ability to shield the economy from inflation risks arising from the Iran war.

🔗 https://archive.ph/YGOsF

🇺🇸🛰🇮🇷 US military satellites are now intensely monitoring six key Iranian sites in high-resolution detail: the underground missile base in Kermanshah province, the Natanz uranium enrichment plant, the uranium mining area east of Tehran, and the three strategic islands near the Strait of Hormuz — Abu Musa, Forur, and Siri.

These are exactly the targets that would matter most in any potential US ground operation. The islands are critical for reopening the strait, while the nuclear and missile sites remain central to Washington’s demands.

🔗 Rybar MENA

🛢 Gulf crude production has COLLAPSED since the start of the Iran war:

Oil output from Persian Gulf nations is running 14.5 million barrels per day BELOW pre-war levels in April, a -57% decline, according to Goldman Sachs.

Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest estimated loss at 4.0 million barrels per day, followed by Iraq at 3.0 million barrels per day, the UAE at 2.7 million barrels per day, and Iran at 2.5 million barrels per day.

Goldman warns that even a full and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would take "a few months" to restore output, with the recovery pace slowing the longer the strait remains effectively closed.

This comes as Brent crude trades near $105 per barrel on Friday, up +$33 per barrel since before the war erupted, though still below the conflict high of ~$120.

With traffic through Hormuz all but frozen and both sides maintaining rival blockades, a rapid supply recovery looks increasingly unlikely.

Every week of continued closure makes the road back longer and oil prices higher.

🔗 Global Markets Investor

🇺🇸🌾 US wheat prices are SURGING:

Hard red winter wheat futures rose to ~$6.90 per bushel this week, the highest level since June 2024.

They are now up +40% from the October 2025 low of ~$4.90 per bushel.

This comes as persistent drought conditions across key growing states including Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado are threatening the new crop, with incoming rainfall expected to arrive too late to meaningfully improve conditions.

The Iran war is compounding the pressure, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz driving up global fertilizer costs and pushing farmers to scale back fertilizer use or shift to less input-intensive crops.

European corn also rose for a fifth consecutive day this week, posting its biggest weekly gain in 2 months, as farmers in France, the EU's largest corn producer, consider reducing planted areas due to surging input costs.

Fertilizer availability concerns are spreading globally, with prices already beginning to rise as a result.

🔗 Global Markets Investor

🔼 🇺🇸 📈 The S&P 500 officially hits a new record high, now up +13.3% since its low on March 30th.

The S&P 500 has now added +$7.6 trillion in market cap in 19 trading days.

📎 KobeissiLetter

🔼 🇺🇸 🖥 The S&P 500 officially posts its highest close on record, now up +$7.6 trillion since the March 30th bottom.

📎 KobeissiLetter

🇦🇪🤝🇨🇳 So…will the USD swap lines Bessent is going to give UAE going to finance the UAE’s newly-signed investments in China?

Or are the USD swap lines so UAE doesn’t have to sell USTs to make these investments in China?

Or do the USD swap lines preclude this?

April 15, 2026:

📎 https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2026/04/15/uae-and-china-sign-initial-pact-to-boost-investment-flows/

🔗 Luke Gromen

🇺🇸❌🏴🚤 — SOUTHCOM's Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a suspected drug vessel in the Eastern Pacific that was transiting along "known narco-trafficking routes" on Friday.

➡️ Two male "narco-terrorists" were killed.