💸 Markets are delusional

We’ve already lost:

- ~30% of fertilizers
- ~20% of LNG
- ~14% of oil
- ~30% of helium

Any one of these on its own would be enough to trigger a crisis. Together, they form a systemic shock that risks pulling the global economy into a serious recession.

Because these aren’t isolated commodities.... they sit at the core of entire production chains:

Petrochemicals -> fertilizer -> food production
Petrochemicals -> mining (copper, uranium, nickel)
Petrochemicals -> plastics -> cars, electronics
Petrochemicals -> drugs, rubber, textiles
Helium -> semiconductors / AI chips
Gas -> power generation
Diesel -> transportation

So this isn’t just an energy problem... it’s a full-spectrum supply shock hitting food, industry, tech, transportation and power at the same time. Without flows from Hormuz, the system doesn’t just slow down, it starts to break.

And there is no policy tool that can replace missing physical supply.

🔗 Lukas Ekwueme

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — The U.S. has lost 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones during the Iran conflict, amounting to roughly $720 million in losses, according to CBS News, citing two U.S. officials.

➡️ Eight MQ-9 drones have been lost since April 1.

🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 According to Reuters, citing three European diplomats, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has told his counterparts in NATO member states that U.S. President Donald J. Trump is looking for commitments to a Strait of Hormuz framework within days. One diplomat said “We note the frustration in Washington, but they did not consult allies either before or after starting this war.”

📎 OSINTdefender

💸 It took a long time for the stock market to grasp the implications of the 1973 oil crisis.

Considering that today's oil crisis is bigger and it affects a lot more commodities than in 1973, the markets may catch on quicker.

@CIG_telegram

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸🇮🇱 A War That Has Already Cost Over $280 Billion and Achieved None of Its Objectives

Seven weeks ago, based on the figures from the 12-day war, I estimated that a new large-scale conflict against Iran would cost in the order of $360 billion just in the first three months.

Today, after 40 days of fighting and with a possible ceasefire agreement on the horizon, the numbers suggest that my estimate could be surpassed well before the 90-day mark.

Each day of coalition air operations costs around $1 billion. That alone adds up to approximately $40 billion in operational costs so far.

According to the Payne Institute for Public Policy, the war with Iran is facing a serious crisis due to unsustainable ammunition consumption rates and exorbitant replenishment costs, which have already exceeded $50 billion.

When we look at material losses, the situation becomes even worse. Reports show that several of the 13 American bases struck have become practically uninhabitable.

Housing blocks were destroyed, communication facilities, power plants, and water systems were pulverized. Just the high-complexity radars confirmed as damaged or destroyed by satellite imagery and intelligence reports up to early April already exceed $4 billion.

On top of that, damage to intelligence and command aircraft, such as the two E-3 Sentry and the E-7 Wedgetail, pushes the bill to around $2 billion. When we add losses of KC-135 tankers, C-130, F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, helicopters and drones, the total easily climbs by another $2 billion.

On the Israeli side, although the government tries to downplay the figures, it is estimated that at least two F-35I Adir units suffered severe damage or total loss in attacks on Nevatim base.
When combined with the F-16I Sufa and F-15I Ra’am hit during interception missions, the damage to Israeli aircraft approaches $1 billion.

However, nothing compares to the material and economic destruction inflicted on the region, especially in energy infrastructure and aluminum smelters.

🔗 Patricia Marins

🇮🇷🤝🇱🇧 Iranian state news agency, Fars: Iran will not come to the negotiating table unless Israel stops attacking Lebanon

An informed source, in an interview with Fars reporter following up on the negotiation axes, stated: Tehran considers the option of negotiating with Washington off the table until a complete ceasefire is established in Lebanon, and it has strongly asserted this position.

According to this informed source, one of the operational options on the table is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. He added: "According to statistics and field monitoring since this morning, it is clear that this strategic maritime route remains closed, and this situation will continue until a full ceasefire with Lebanon is achieved."

It is worth mentioning that following Iran's decisive positions, clear signs of Netanyahu's retreat are becoming evident.
Vitkoff's remarks this afternoon recommending Netanyahu to accept the field realities, as well as Netanyahu's recent statements which, though veiled threats, clearly indicate compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire, are signs of a shift in the American-Zionist stance.

🔗 https://t.me/farsna/427912

🇮🇷❌🇰🇼- Kuwait under attack by Iraqi drones, Impacts have been verified in vital infrastructure.

@GeoPWatch

🇮🇷❌🇦🇪- PANTSIR air defence over United Arab Emirates skies intercepting Iranian drones.

@GeoPWatch