🇻🇳 🇹🇭 🇵🇭 Vietnam, Thailand to suffer most among ASEAN-5 in 2026: World Bank
Vietnam likely will take the biggest hit to growth among Southeast Asia's major economies in 2026, followed by Thailand, as the Iran war adds to the uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs, the World Bank says.
Aaditya Mattoo, director of development research at the World Bank, said the combination of tariff uncertainty and the Middle East oil shock is expected to do greater harm to economies such as Vietnam, "which depends a lot on its exports."
Oil and gas supply disruptions due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S. and Israeli strikes are "not a temporary shock," he said, while the two-week ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday "doesn't dispel the climate of uncertainty."
The Philippines also risks a further hit to its economy after a graft scandal along with typhoons and floods last year limited gross domestic product growth to just 4.4% in 2025. This year, the economy is forecast to expand 3.7%, as Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of national energy emergency last month over fuel price hikes and supply concerns.
Challenges for the region include higher energy costs for manufacturing as well as rising fertilizer and food prices, he said, along with "higher transport costs, which will hit the chip industry, which will permeate the entire production chain." Investment also is expected to come under pressure from rising borrowing costs and weak business sentiment.
https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/vietnam-thailand-to-suffer-most-among-asean-5-in-2026-world-bank
https://archive.ph/nPQZG
Vietnam likely will take the biggest hit to growth among Southeast Asia's major economies in 2026, followed by Thailand, as the Iran war adds to the uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs, the World Bank says.
Aaditya Mattoo, director of development research at the World Bank, said the combination of tariff uncertainty and the Middle East oil shock is expected to do greater harm to economies such as Vietnam, "which depends a lot on its exports."
Oil and gas supply disruptions due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S. and Israeli strikes are "not a temporary shock," he said, while the two-week ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday "doesn't dispel the climate of uncertainty."
The Philippines also risks a further hit to its economy after a graft scandal along with typhoons and floods last year limited gross domestic product growth to just 4.4% in 2025. This year, the economy is forecast to expand 3.7%, as Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of national energy emergency last month over fuel price hikes and supply concerns.
Challenges for the region include higher energy costs for manufacturing as well as rising fertilizer and food prices, he said, along with "higher transport costs, which will hit the chip industry, which will permeate the entire production chain." Investment also is expected to come under pressure from rising borrowing costs and weak business sentiment.
https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/vietnam-thailand-to-suffer-most-among-asean-5-in-2026-world-bank
https://archive.ph/nPQZG
Nikkei Asia
Vietnam, Thailand to suffer most among ASEAN-5 in 2026: World Bank
AI boom to cushion Iran war's impact on countries like Malaysia, lender says
Forwarded from Information Liberation
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Tucker Carlson: "Why can't this president, or any president, say no to Israel?"
"Why does this tiny country have so much control over our government?"
"Why does this tiny country have so much control over our government?"
Forwarded from Information Liberation
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Tucker Carlson: "The United States has to detach from Israel."
"This distancing should begin with a total end of aid of any kind—military or economic—to Israel."
"This distancing should begin with a total end of aid of any kind—military or economic—to Israel."
📢 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump, posting about US troops remaining around Iran, says the U.S. military is “looking forward” to its “next conquest.”
📎 Faytuks Network
📎 Faytuks Network
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇮🇱/🇶🇦 NEW: Iran’s ‘Handala’ hackers have managed to breach the phone of former IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, confirming for the first time that he secretly visited Qatar and met with Emir Hamad Bin Al-Thani
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇱🇧 Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson:
‘A delegation from Iran will travel to the peace talks in Islamabad today, but will participate only if Israel stops its attacks on Lebanon.
Any peace in the region must include Lebanon, and the coming hours will be decisive to see if Israel can be restrained.
Iran was on the verge of responding last night but refrained to make room for additional diplomacy.’
@Middle_East_Spectator
‘A delegation from Iran will travel to the peace talks in Islamabad today, but will participate only if Israel stops its attacks on Lebanon.
Any peace in the region must include Lebanon, and the coming hours will be decisive to see if Israel can be restrained.
Iran was on the verge of responding last night but refrained to make room for additional diplomacy.’
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇮🇱 NEW: Oil prices are starting to rise again, after it became clear to the market that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and amid fears of a ceasefire collapse
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
➡️ They have not been used on 1 of Iran's Top-10 missile cities (Shiraz-South)
If they had been, damage would be well visible.
➡️ Instead the base remains fully operational after ~40 Days War.
To make it clear:
No 'mass' GBU-72 bunker-buster B-1 raid, nor B-2 GBU-57 MOP raids would have any chance to harm the Missile/Drone arsenal there.
➡️ But the entrances could have been heavily mauled, significantly reducing launch-rate.
Operational freedom over Iran, by assets like the B-2 remain highly questionable due to this finding!
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from Demographics Now and Then
Outdated but interesting demographic information from Iraq. In 2018 Shia Arab Iraqis has a TFR of ⬆️4.0, Kurds 3.0, & Sunni Arab Iraqis 2.9. Sunni Arab Iraqi TFR cratered during & after war to destroy ISIS in Mosul & other predominately Sunni Arab areas.
Would estimate today that if Iraqi national TFR ~3.0 then Shia Arab has fallen to no more than 3.25, Sunni Arab ~2.5, & Kurdish 2.75 (very high in rural areas & ~2.3 in more urban). Kurds also emigrate to Europe proportionally more than any other major Iraqi group.
2024 census did find Shia Arabs recorded largest average household sizes while Kurdish areas (Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Duhok) has a significantly lower percentage of children under 5 compared to the national average indicating lower fertility & faster aging. Ditto Sunni Arab areas.
https://amwaj.media/en/article/deep-dive-inside-iraq-s-population-guessing-game
Would estimate today that if Iraqi national TFR ~3.0 then Shia Arab has fallen to no more than 3.25, Sunni Arab ~2.5, & Kurdish 2.75 (very high in rural areas & ~2.3 in more urban). Kurds also emigrate to Europe proportionally more than any other major Iraqi group.
2024 census did find Shia Arabs recorded largest average household sizes while Kurdish areas (Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Duhok) has a significantly lower percentage of children under 5 compared to the national average indicating lower fertility & faster aging. Ditto Sunni Arab areas.
https://amwaj.media/en/article/deep-dive-inside-iraq-s-population-guessing-game
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
"Iran still has its nuclear stockpile. Its nuclear ambitions are still unchecked, if not accelerated…The nations at the world are furious at Trump: the Asians, the Europeans, even the Middle Eastern allies."
Their tears for the civilians in Iran and Lebanon that died during the war are crocodile tears.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
An MQ-4C Triton costs more than $200 million per aircraft.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇱🇧 NEW: Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, outlines 3 points for Iran to continue negotiations:
1. Lebanon and the ENTIRE Resistance Axis (including Yemen, Iraq etc.) are an inseperable part of the ceasefire.
2. There must be no backtracking on the issue of Lebanon being included.
3. Ceasefire violations carry explicit costs and strong responses from now on; calling upon the U.S. to compel Israel to ‘extinguish the fire immediately’.
@Middle_East_Spectator
1. Lebanon and the ENTIRE Resistance Axis (including Yemen, Iraq etc.) are an inseperable part of the ceasefire.
2. There must be no backtracking on the issue of Lebanon being included.
3. Ceasefire violations carry explicit costs and strong responses from now on; calling upon the U.S. to compel Israel to ‘extinguish the fire immediately’.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The IDF is surrounding the city of Bint Jbeil and aims to launch an offensive to occupy it – Maariv
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The IDF is surrounding the city of Bint Jbeil and aims to launch an offensive to occupy it – Maariv @Middle_East_Spectator
—❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧/🇮🇷 MAP: The IDF aims to cut off the access roads to Bint Jbeil by capturing the predominantly Christian town of Ein Ebel without resistance, and then pushing through the town of At-Tiri to cut off the Northern access road
An combined infantry-armored push with heavy air support will then start on Bint Jbeil from the directions of Aitaroun and Maroun Al-Ras.
The hills surrounding the northern boundaries of At-Tiri have an especially heavy Hezbollah presence, and would likely be challenging to capture.
NOTE: Israel lost to Hezbollah in 2006 while trying to capture this same city (Bint Jbeil).
@Middle_East_Spectator
An combined infantry-armored push with heavy air support will then start on Bint Jbeil from the directions of Aitaroun and Maroun Al-Ras.
The hills surrounding the northern boundaries of At-Tiri have an especially heavy Hezbollah presence, and would likely be challenging to capture.
NOTE: Israel lost to Hezbollah in 2006 while trying to capture this same city (Bint Jbeil).
@Middle_East_Spectator
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇮🇷/🇱🇧 BREAKING: In what can now only be interpreted as a deliberate act aimed at sabotaging the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Israel orders an evacuation order for the ENTIRETY of southern Beirut
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
🛢 🇺🇸 📈 US oil prices extend gains to rise above $101/barrel, now up +11% in 24 hours.
Growing doubts about the US-Iran ceasefire deal are sending energy prices sharply higher.
📎 KobeissiLetter
Growing doubts about the US-Iran ceasefire deal are sending energy prices sharply higher.
📎 KobeissiLetter
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🇪🇸 🤝 🇮🇷 Spain will reopen its embassy in Tehran in hopes of helping to achieve peace amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said on Thursday.
📎 Al Jazeera
📎 Al Jazeera
📎 Bloomberg
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from IROP
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM