📝 🇺🇸 🏴‍☠️ "We're seeing literally the breakdown of the rules of law on the high seas." - Sal Mercogliano

📎 What's Going on With Shipping

🇿🇦 🇺🇸 Joost Strydom on X:

INTERNATIONAL FRIENDS; an Explanation of my toast, if you are not familiar with the Great Trek. My ancestors moved away from British colonial rule imposed on them towards freedom.

This is why we Orania is important to us. Freedom cannot be given or grabbed, it must be BUILT. And building something is a conscious decision.
@WietsJBuys

📎 Joost Strydom

📝 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 The U.S. crackdown on Latin America is largely about pushing China out of the neighborhood and pivoting to a strategy of hemispheric defense instead of trying to contain China on its own turf. The trends in the below map in Latin America are unacceptable to Washington:

📎 MazMHussain

🛡 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukraine lost 87% of its Abrams tanks in under two years. Australia's 49 replacement tanks arrive as the 68-ton breakthrough weapon has been forced into a different role

It is now used not as a spearpoint but a "shielded hammer" — only surviving in a symphony of sensors, jammers, and screens.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/19/australia-completes-delivery-of-49-abrams-tanks-now-they-must-survive-the-drones/

Netanyahu is confirmed to visit President Trump for the 5th time this year on December 29th where it is reported he will ask the United States to participate in a second air campaign against Iran to diminish their ballistic missile arsenal.

As I said earlier in the year, this was the inevitable outcome of the 12-day War because Operation Midnight Hammer made nuclear diplomacy almost impossible and because Israel continues to seek the comprehensive, strategic defeat of Iran.

Israel is looking to compel the disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and to deliver a decisive blow against Iran's ability to strike Israel with ballistic missiles.

This is all part of Israel's 3-prong plan to destroy Iran's military capabilities: its nuclear stockpile, proxy network, and missile arsenal. In 2023-2024, Israel crippled Hamas, Hezbollah, and ousted Assad, in 2025 they rendered Natanz and Fordow inoperable.

Once the proxy network is dismantled and Iran's missile-building capacity is destroyed, Iran will be completely defenseless and unable to retaliate against Israel for a decapitation strike on the Islamic regime or covert regime change efforts.

With Iran out of the picture, Israel will effectively annex Lebanon south of the Litani River, southern Syria up to the suburbs of Damascus, and most likely Gaza and the West Bank. This would clear the way for Lebanon, Syria, and Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, which Netanyahu intends to refashion into a military alliance.

Israel will remain the only nuclear power in the Middle East, retain its qualitative military hardware edge over its allies, and dominate the Middle East. At this point, they will remove themselves from the "golden handcuffs" of US aid and pursue strategic autonomy from the United States.

Since Israel is holding elections in the spring and Netanyahu is still attempting to secure a pardon from the Israeli president, it would seem that strikes against Iran are most likely to take place in the first few months of 2026.

🇺🇸 ❌️ 🇻🇪 The U.S. boarded a third tanker near Venezuela.

🇵🇦 The Panama-flagged, US-sanctioned Bella 1, was en route to Venezuela. 🛢

📎 Bloomberg

🚢 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 UPDATE: SKIPPER (9304667) has now reached the general GOLA (Galveston Offshore Lightering Area) in order to transfer her 1.85 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil to smaller tankers that can then bring the oil into various refinery terminals within Houston, for instance. 🛢

📎 Tanker Trackers

🇺🇸 🇨🇺 🇻🇪 U.S. Oil Blockade of Venezuela Pushes Cuba Toward Collapse

The Communist-ruled island was already suffering from food shortages, blackouts and an exodus of people; now it faces the loss of cheap oil from Nicolás Maduro

The U.S. is ratcheting up pressure on Havana’s key benefactor, Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro’s regime, which has kept the Communist-ruled nation afloat with cheap oil. Now Venezuelan oil exports are at risk thanks to a partial blockade targeting sanctioned tankers—the kind that carry about 70% of the country’s crude.

🛢 Were Venezuela’s oil shipments to stop, or sharply decline, the Cubans know it would be devastating.

“It would be the collapse of the Cuban economy, no question about it,” said Jorge Piñón, a Cuban exile who tracks the island’s energy ties to Venezuela at the University of Texas at Austin.

Nearly 90% of people live in extreme poverty, and 70% go without at least a meal a day, said the Social Rights Observatory, a think tank that conducted a month of polling this past summer. For more than 70% of Cubans, their main concerns are the lack of food and the constant blackouts, which can go for 18 hours or more a day in some regions. The observatory found that 78% intend to flee the island.

⚡️ Cuba’s deep reliance on Venezuela means Cuba’s Communist government is doing all it can to prevent Maduro—who trained in Cuba as a young man—from being forced from office in his greatest challenge after nearly 13 years in office. That means ensuring he is always surrounded by security and loyal aides, with no one carrying cellphones or other electronic devices.

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/u-s-oil-blockade-of-venezuela-pushes-cuba-toward-collapse-75289b5b

📎 WSJ

🇸🇪 ❌️ 🇷🇺 Swedish authorities boarded the Russian cargo ship Adler overnight after it anchored off Höganäs following an engine failure.

The operation involved Customs, the Coast Guard, police special units, and security services.

The vessel is owned by M Leasing LLC, a Russian company sanctioned by the EU and US for allegedly transporting North Korean ammunition later used by Russia in Ukraine

Swedish Customs said the boarding proceeded calmly and the inspection was still ongoing Sunday morning. No findings have been officially disclosed so far.

📎 GeoInsider

🇸🇪 ❌️ 🇷🇺 Swedish Customs, joined by the Swedish Security Service, board Russian ship Adler after it anchors off Höganäs in Swedish waters

📎 Rapid Report

🇪🇺 🇷🇺 🇹🇷 ISW continues to assess that Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.

Three drones — at least two of which are reportedly Russian drone models — have entered Turkish airspace or crashed into Turkey since December 15. The Turkish Ministry of National Defense reported on December 15 that Turkish and NATO forces shot down a drone approaching Turkish airspace from the Black Sea.

Turkish authorities did not specify the type or origin of the drone. The Turkish Interior Ministry reported on December 19 that Turkish authorities found a downed Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone near Izmit in northwestern Turkey.

Turkish outlets reported on December 20 that a third drone crashed in Balıkesir Province in northwestern Turkey, possibly on an earlier date, and that there were no identifying markings on the drone. A Russian milblogger claimed that the third drone was a Russian Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone.

Turkish authorities have not directly attributed the incidents to Russia as of this writing.

📎 ISW

📖 🇺🇸 🇵🇦 On December 20th, 1989, 27,000 American troops invaded Panama to topple the dictator and former U.S. ally Manuel Noriega. The global community condemned the operation as a violation of international law.

📎 Military History Now

🏴‍☠️ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 “The United States Coast Guard is in active pursuit of a sanctioned dark fleet vessel that is part of Venezuela’s illegal sanctions evasion. It is flying a false flag and under a judicial seizure order,” a U.S. official told Fox News, regarding reports that another vessel had been boarded and seized this morning in the Southern Caribbean.

📎 OSINTdefender