🇪🇹🇸🇴 Somalia and Ethiopia agreed to work toward granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea on December 11, which will likely lead Ethiopia to pause or withdraw from its controversial naval port agreement with Somaliland and decrease the possibility of a direct or proxy conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia.

Ethiopia and Somalia reached the deal after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held separate talks between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Ankara on December 11.

Ethiopia and Somalia have been in a political conflict since Ethiopia signed a naval port deal with Somaliland in January 2024. The agreement granted Ethiopia land in Somaliland for a naval base on the Red Sea in return for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence

Ethiopia’s withdrawal from the Somaliland agreement would likely lead the Somali Federal Government (SFG) to reverse its decision to expel Ethiopian troops from Somalia and exclude Ethiopian troops from the new African Union mission in Somalia, which will begin in 2025.

Ethiopia and Somalia’s rapprochement may quicken the end of a dispute between the SFG and the Jubbaland state government in southern Somalia by leading Ethiopia to cut alleged military support for Jubbaland and freeing the SFG’s military and political bandwidth to address the dispute.

The SFG and Jubbaland may engage in further clashes in the following weeks, although the fighting will likely remain limited.

📎 Critical Threats

🇮🇱❌🇸🇾 Further to the south, the IDF occupied two more villages in the Qunaytra province.

The villages of Umm Batina and Ruwayhina are located outside the UNDOF buffer zone, and their occupation by Israel represents a clear invasion of Syrian territory.

Even further south, another incursion was made by the Israeli Army which captured the village of Kudna, it too beyond the 1974 UNDOF line.

🔗 IWN

🇸🇾❌🇮🇱 New Syrian government filed a formal complaint to the UN Security Council regarding Israel's violation of Syrian sovereignty and the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement.

🔗 Clash Report

🇷🇺🇸🇾🇱🇾 Russia will likely turn to Libya to replace its Syrian bases or mitigate its reliance on its Syrian bases in the Mediterranean & Africa even if it retains its Syrian bases.

The Kremlin faces political obstacles that make Russia’s long-term position in Libya vulnerable.

Libya is crucially the only country with a significant Russian military presence in Africa that Russian cargo planes can directly reach from Russia without refueling. Heavier cargo planes can reach Libya only by flying over Turkish airspace.

The Kremlin already increased Libya’s role as an operational hub for its various Africa Corps deployments in sub-Saharan Africa throughout 2024. These newly upgraded military facilities in Libya could handle some Russian logistics traffic that previously went through Syria.

The Kremlin has also sought an agreement for permanent Russian docking rights at Tobruk since 2023. A Russian naval base at Tobruk would fill similar logistical and strategic roles as Russia's base at Tartus, Syria.

Russia’s position in Libya is dependent on Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, who controls the eastern half of Libya in Libya's stalemated civil war. This fact makes any Russian basing in Libya vulnerable to the same jeopardy as its Syria bases if Haftar’s regime collapsed.

The United States has increased outreach to Haftar in recent years and pressed him to reduce his ties with Russia. US officials specifically warned Haftar against accepting a Russian naval base during these discussions.

🔗 Critical Threats

🇩🇪 Germany spent $1 Trillion for its energy revamp with following results:

1. It cannot assure constant energy supply to its industry and needs to import electricity

2. It causes several times more CO2 per kWh than France

$1T for ruining both its economy and environment. Legends

🔗 Michael Arouet