🇩🇪 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Leaked German military documents laid out a doomsday scenario where Russia wins in Ukraine then invades Europe
🔶️ The documents, produced by Germany's defense ministry, imagine a situation in which Russia launches a massive spring 2024 offensive to take advantage of waning Western support.
⬛️ In this scenario, it defeats Ukraine.
🔶️ It envisages the face-off coming to a head in early 2025, with Russia seeking to take advantage of the upheaval that could follow a new US administration taking office after the 2024 presidential election.
🔶️ Polish security minister Jacek Siewiera warned in December that an attack could come in as little as three years, and would likely target NATO's eastern flank.
https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-military-docs-envision-russia-war-nato-in-2024-2024-1
🔶️ The documents, produced by Germany's defense ministry, imagine a situation in which Russia launches a massive spring 2024 offensive to take advantage of waning Western support.
⬛️ In this scenario, it defeats Ukraine.
🔶️ It envisages the face-off coming to a head in early 2025, with Russia seeking to take advantage of the upheaval that could follow a new US administration taking office after the 2024 presidential election.
🔶️ Polish security minister Jacek Siewiera warned in December that an attack could come in as little as three years, and would likely target NATO's eastern flank.
https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-military-docs-envision-russia-war-nato-in-2024-2024-1
Business Insider
Leaked German military documents laid out a doomsday scenario where Russia wins in Ukraine then invades Europe
According to the documents, in a worst-case scenario, Russia could follow up a win in Ukraine by attacking NATO's eastern flank.
📢 🇬🇧 🌍 Era of ‘peace dividend’ is over, says UK defence secretary
⬛️ Grant Shapps calls on allies to boost military spending to meet rising enemy threat
🔶️ Britain’s defence secretary has said the post-cold war “peace dividend” is over and that western countries need to prepare for further conflicts involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran over the next five years.
🔶️ Grant Shapps warned on Monday that the world had moved to a “prewar” phase and that the Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts had struck at the heart of the world order, as he called on allies to lift defence spending to meet the rising threat.
🔶️ “The era of peace dividend is over,” said Shapps in a speech at Lancaster House in London, where he set out his priorities for 2024. “In five years’ time, we could be looking at multiple theatres [of conflict] involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea.
🔶️ “Looking at today’s conflicts across the world, is it more likely that the number grows or reduces? I suspect we all know the answer — it’s likely to grow,” he added.
🔶️ “We find ourselves at the dawn of a new era . . . moving from a postwar to a prewar world,” Shapps said. “Old enemies are being reanimated. New foes are taking shape . . . the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2378f4a6-ebd7-4b02-9818-f1aa99d7d721
https://archive.ph/j4f9I
⬛️ Grant Shapps calls on allies to boost military spending to meet rising enemy threat
🔶️ Britain’s defence secretary has said the post-cold war “peace dividend” is over and that western countries need to prepare for further conflicts involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran over the next five years.
🔶️ Grant Shapps warned on Monday that the world had moved to a “prewar” phase and that the Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts had struck at the heart of the world order, as he called on allies to lift defence spending to meet the rising threat.
🔶️ “The era of peace dividend is over,” said Shapps in a speech at Lancaster House in London, where he set out his priorities for 2024. “In five years’ time, we could be looking at multiple theatres [of conflict] involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea.
🔶️ “Looking at today’s conflicts across the world, is it more likely that the number grows or reduces? I suspect we all know the answer — it’s likely to grow,” he added.
🔶️ “We find ourselves at the dawn of a new era . . . moving from a postwar to a prewar world,” Shapps said. “Old enemies are being reanimated. New foes are taking shape . . . the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2378f4a6-ebd7-4b02-9818-f1aa99d7d721
https://archive.ph/j4f9I
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📖 🇺🇸 🌍 Has U.S. deterrence failed?
4 hours before the U.S. launched strikes against the Houthis, the Pentagon said: "We don't see the conflict between Israel & Hamas having expanded beyond Gaza."
It's a line the Pentagon has repeated constantly when asked if deterrence was working. Their response:
- Yes, the conflict hasn't widened beyond Israel-Gaza
- Yes, a broader regional war hasn't erupted
With U.S. forces attacked daily on 4 fronts—from Houthis in Yemen, Islamic Resistance in Iraq & Syria, & now directly from Iran... How long can the Pentagon continue to make that claim?
Israel's defense minister recently said, "we are in a multi-front war. We are being attacked from 7 different arenas." All the above, + Gaza (Hamas), Lebanon (Hezbollah), & West Bank (PIJ).
The U.S. + Allies have engaged in significant offensive & defensive operations in the region. By the Pentagon's calculus, the strikes in Yemen are a tacit admission that U.S. deterrence has failed because the conflict:
1. Expanded beyond Israel & continues to escalate on multiple (7) fronts
2. Includes the direct & indirect involvement of several (6+) state & non-state actors
If U.S. deterrence isn't worth what it once was—what does that mean for allies around the world (especially in Asia)?
📎 Ian Ellis
4 hours before the U.S. launched strikes against the Houthis, the Pentagon said: "We don't see the conflict between Israel & Hamas having expanded beyond Gaza."
It's a line the Pentagon has repeated constantly when asked if deterrence was working. Their response:
- Yes, the conflict hasn't widened beyond Israel-Gaza
- Yes, a broader regional war hasn't erupted
With U.S. forces attacked daily on 4 fronts—from Houthis in Yemen, Islamic Resistance in Iraq & Syria, & now directly from Iran... How long can the Pentagon continue to make that claim?
Israel's defense minister recently said, "we are in a multi-front war. We are being attacked from 7 different arenas." All the above, + Gaza (Hamas), Lebanon (Hezbollah), & West Bank (PIJ).
The U.S. + Allies have engaged in significant offensive & defensive operations in the region. By the Pentagon's calculus, the strikes in Yemen are a tacit admission that U.S. deterrence has failed because the conflict:
1. Expanded beyond Israel & continues to escalate on multiple (7) fronts
2. Includes the direct & indirect involvement of several (6+) state & non-state actors
If U.S. deterrence isn't worth what it once was—what does that mean for allies around the world (especially in Asia)?
📎 Ian Ellis
🇮🇱 🇵🇸 The IDF announced on Jan. 15 that it withdrew the 36th Division from the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
🔶️ CTP-ISW warned on Jan. 2 that the third phase of Israeli operations in Gaza, as described, will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily.
🔶️ Israeli forces have degraded several Hamas units in the Gaza Strip. But Hamas’ military forces are neither defeated nor destroyed at this time.
🔶️ Palestinian militias continue to operate across the Gaza Strip and have targeted Israeli forces in areas where Israel has degraded the local Hamas units.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-15-2024
🔶️ CTP-ISW warned on Jan. 2 that the third phase of Israeli operations in Gaza, as described, will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily.
🔶️ Israeli forces have degraded several Hamas units in the Gaza Strip. But Hamas’ military forces are neither defeated nor destroyed at this time.
🔶️ Palestinian militias continue to operate across the Gaza Strip and have targeted Israeli forces in areas where Israel has degraded the local Hamas units.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-15-2024
Forwarded from Kurdish Front News (Zanyari)
https://fxtwitter.com/anadoluagency/status/1747285163686416844
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FxTwitter / FixupX
Anadolu English (@anadoluagency)
#BREAKING Operations to continue until every inch of northern Iraq mountains, which serve as source of terrorist activities, is secure, Turkish President Erdogan says
https://fxtwitter.com/anadoluagency/status/1747282822769844355
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Anadolu English (@anadoluagency)
#BREAKING Over last 5 days, 114 targets were hit as part of air operations in Syria and Iraq, with 78 terrorists 'neutralized,' Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says
💥 🚢 🇾🇪 UKMTO has received a report of an incident approximately 100NM North West of Saleef, Yemen. Company Security Officer reports vessel has been hit by an unknown object in the cargo hold.
📎 UKMTO
📎 UKMTO
📢 🇾🇪 🇾🇪 Statement by the Yemeni Armed Forces regarding the targeting of the “Zogravia” ship heading to the ports of occupied Palestine - 01-16-2024 AD
A statement issued by the Yemeni Armed Forces
In the name of God, the most gracious, the most merciful
God Almighty said: {Indeed, God loves those who are killed in His cause, arrayed as if they were built of solid stones.} God Almighty has spoken the truth.
In victory for the oppression of the Palestinian people who are subjected to aggression and siege in the Gaza Strip, the naval forces of the Yemeni Armed Forces, with the help of God Almighty, carried out a targeting operation against the ship “Zogravia”, which was heading to the ports of occupied Palestine, with a number of suitable naval missiles, and the hit was direct.
The targeting operation came after the ship's crew rejected warning calls, including fiery warning messages.
The Yemeni armed forces will continue to implement the decision to prevent Israeli navigation or those associated with the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea until the aggression is stopped and the siege on the steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted.
The Yemeni Armed Forces continue to take all defensive and offensive measures within the legitimate right to defend dear Yemen and in confirmation of continued practical solidarity with the oppressed Palestinian people.
God is sufficient for us, and He is the best disposer of affairs, the best protector, and the best helper
Long live Yemen, free, dear and independent
Victory belongs to Yemen and to all the free people of the nation
Sanaa, Rajab 5, 1445 AH
Corresponding to January 16, 2024 AD
A statement issued by the Yemeni Armed Forces
In the name of God, the most gracious, the most merciful
God Almighty said: {Indeed, God loves those who are killed in His cause, arrayed as if they were built of solid stones.} God Almighty has spoken the truth.
In victory for the oppression of the Palestinian people who are subjected to aggression and siege in the Gaza Strip, the naval forces of the Yemeni Armed Forces, with the help of God Almighty, carried out a targeting operation against the ship “Zogravia”, which was heading to the ports of occupied Palestine, with a number of suitable naval missiles, and the hit was direct.
The targeting operation came after the ship's crew rejected warning calls, including fiery warning messages.
The Yemeni armed forces will continue to implement the decision to prevent Israeli navigation or those associated with the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea until the aggression is stopped and the siege on the steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted.
The Yemeni Armed Forces continue to take all defensive and offensive measures within the legitimate right to defend dear Yemen and in confirmation of continued practical solidarity with the oppressed Palestinian people.
God is sufficient for us, and He is the best disposer of affairs, the best protector, and the best helper
Long live Yemen, free, dear and independent
Victory belongs to Yemen and to all the free people of the nation
Sanaa, Rajab 5, 1445 AH
Corresponding to January 16, 2024 AD
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📢 🇾🇪 🇾🇪 The naval forces of the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out a targeting operation against the ship “Zogravia”, which was heading to the ports of occupied Palestine, with a number of suitable naval missiles, and the hit was direct.
The targeting operation of the ship came after its crew refused the calls from the naval forces, as well as repeated fiery warning messages.
The Yemeni armed forces continue to carry out their military operations and implement the decision to prevent Israeli navigation in the Arab and Red Seas until the aggression stops and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted.
The Yemeni Armed Forces continue to take all defensive and offensive measures within the legitimate right to defend dear Yemen and in confirmation of continued practical solidarity with the oppressed Palestinian people.
The targeting operation of the ship came after its crew refused the calls from the naval forces, as well as repeated fiery warning messages.
The Yemeni armed forces continue to carry out their military operations and implement the decision to prevent Israeli navigation in the Arab and Red Seas until the aggression stops and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted.
The Yemeni Armed Forces continue to take all defensive and offensive measures within the legitimate right to defend dear Yemen and in confirmation of continued practical solidarity with the oppressed Palestinian people.
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🏴☠️ 🚢 🇪🇷 UKMTO has received a report from the Master of a vessel approximately 57NM North of Al Assab Eritrea, 4 suspicious small craft came to within 400 meters. Armed Guards fired 4 warning shots
into the water. The small craft then departed the area. Vessel and Crew are safe. Vessel continuing
to next port of call.
📎 UKMTO
into the water. The small craft then departed the area. Vessel and Crew are safe. Vessel continuing
to next port of call.
📎 UKMTO
🏴☠️ 🇾🇪 🚢 Here is an updated graphic of Iran & Houthi related maritime events, visual lists vessels along with type of incidents reported by maritime security organizations in the region [recent incidents highlighted red]
📎 Damien Symon
📎 Damien Symon
Forwarded from Fotros Resistance
🛑 IRGC Commander Hajizadeh published statistics on last night’s attack:
• Launch of 4 Khaybar Shekan missiles from southern Khuzestan.
• 4 launches from Kermanshah to Erbil
• 7 launches from East Azerbaijan to Erbil
• 9 launches additional launches towards Takfiris & ISIS in Syria
- Note: With the launch of 24 missiles, last night's operation by the IRGC marked Iran's largest missile operation to date.
• Launch of 4 Khaybar Shekan missiles from southern Khuzestan.
• 4 launches from Kermanshah to Erbil
• 7 launches from East Azerbaijan to Erbil
• 9 launches additional launches towards Takfiris & ISIS in Syria
- Note: With the launch of 24 missiles, last night's operation by the IRGC marked Iran's largest missile operation to date.
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇮🇷/🇵🇰 ❗️BREAKING: Reports of Iranian ballistic missile strikes against terrorist targets in Pakistan
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇮🇷/🇵🇰 BREAKING: The IRGC launched an attack with ballistic missiles and suicide drones at the Jaish Ul-Adl terrorist headquarters in Pakistan – Tasnim
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator