Microsoft планирует вставлять рекламу в игры

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Screening a source for bonus abusers in 5 steps

Bonus abusers (players who only ever extract the welcome offer) inflate FTDs and destroy RevShare. Screen before the operator does it for you.

▸ Step 1 — Measure post-bonus wagering rate: what % of FTDs deposit again after the welcome bonus clears. Under 25% on a source is a warning.
— Step 2 — Check deposit clustering at exactly the minimum-to-qualify amount. A spike at the bonus-trigger figure signals optimization, not real play.
— Step 3 — Track time-between-deposits. Abusers churn the instant the bonus value is extracted, producing a sharp day-3-to-7 cliff.
— Step 4 — Watch the operator's own 'bonus abuse' rejection rate on your traffic; if it climbs, your source is the channel.
— Step 5 — Compare NGR-per-FTD against your portfolio median. Abuser-heavy sources show high FTD count, low NGR — the diagnostic combination.

Benchmark of the day: across ~20 screened sources, abuser-heavy ones showed normal FTD counts but NGR-per-FTD running 40-60% below the portfolio median — invisible until you divide.

Measuring incremental FTDs from a promo, in 5 steps

Run a deposit-match promo and FTDs jump — but how many would've deposited anyway? Without incrementality, you're paying for conversions you already had.

▸ Step 1 — Hold out a control: randomly exclude ~10-15% of eligible players from the promo. This is the only honest baseline.
— Step 2 — Run the promo to the test group over a fixed window, same GEO/source mix as control.
— Step 3 — Compute FTD rate in each group. Incremental lift = test rate minus control rate, not the raw test number.
— Step 4 — Cost it: divide total promo spend by incremental FTDs only. The true cost-per-incremental-FTD is often 2-3x the naive figure.
— Step 5 — Compare that true cost to your CPA on the same GEO. If the promo's incremental cost exceeds CPA, buy traffic instead.

The discipline is the holdout. 'FTDs went up' is not evidence the promo caused them.

Benchmark of the day: across ~12 promo tests with proper holdouts, naive FTD lift overstated true incremental lift by a median of 2.4x.

The "always take CPA on cold traffic" rule breaks at LTV $480

The advice: cold, untested traffic should always run CPA so the operator eats the risk. Mostly right — but the cutoff is mechanical, not a vibe.

The math, across ~40 tracked Tier-1 deals:
— CPA $180 flat vs RevShare 35% of NGR (net gaming revenue = stakes minus payouts minus bonus cost).
— RevShare overtakes CPA once player LTV (lifetime net value to the operator) clears ~$510 and breaks even around month 4.
— Below ~$480 LTV, CPA wins for the lifetime of the cohort.

The correction: "cold" is not the variable — retention is. If your source feeds sticky players (sportsbook regulars, low bonus-abuse), you're leaving 20-40% on the table taking CPA. The honest move is a hybrid: CPA $120 plus 15% RevShare, so you bank risk-cover and keep upside.

Run the first 200-300 FTDs on hybrid, measure month-3 LTV, then renegotiate to whichever pure model your actual cohort justifies.

Benchmark of the day: CPA beats RevShare only while cohort LTV stays under ~1.4x the CPA price.

На Anthropic, OpenAI, Google и SpaceXAI подали в суд из-за ИИ

В Калифорнии против ИИ-компаний подали антимонопольный иск: регулятору показалось подозрительным, что игроки синхронно призывают ограничить развитие нейросетей ради безопасности. Смысл спора в том, что инвестиции в ИИ уже обгоняют реальный прогресс, а бизнесу выгодны правила, которые защитят капитал. Вывод: быстрых прорывов ждать не стоит, лучше выжимать максимум из текущих инструментов.

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Google ads начал показывать расходы конкурентов

Google Ads запустил Peer Spending — инструмент, который сравнивает расходы аккаунта с рекламодателями из той же ниши без раскрытия чужих данных. Он показывает, тратите вы больше, меньше или примерно на уровне конкурентов на уровне кампаний и групп объявлений. Для арбитража это скорее ориентир по бенчмаркам, чем инструмент прямого усиления залива.

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Минфин РФ планирует выпустить собственный стейблкоин

Власти РФ обсуждают запуск рублёвого стейблкоина: сейчас решают, как его обеспечить, какие операции разрешить и будет ли на него спрос. Основной кейс — международные переводы, а не использование физлицами. Если проект доведут до запуска, он может стать частью новой криптоинфраструктуры и альтернативой токенам, привязанным к дружественным валютам.

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A $250 CPA can net less than a $160 one — here's the clause

The advice: negotiate the highest CPA number you can get. The headline price is the least important term in the contract.

What actually moves take-home, across ~25 deals where I saw both sheets:
— Baseline quality requirement: $250 CPA often carries a min-deposit of $50 and a 7-day activity gate. The $160 deal had a $20 deposit, no gate.
— After the gate, the $250 deal paid on only 61% of FTDs (first-time depositors); the $160 deal paid on 92%.
— Effective CPA: $250 x 0.61 = $152.50 vs $160 x 0.92 = $147.20. Nearly identical — and the cheaper deal had a lower chargeback/shave rate on top.

The correction: model effective CPA = headline x qualification rate, then subtract expected shave. A high sticker with a strict baseline is a high-variance, lower-mean payout.

Ask for the qualification definition in writing before the rate. The deposit threshold, the activity window, and the bonus-abuse clause decide your real EPC (earnings per click), not the number on the banner.

Benchmark of the day: effective CPA = headline price x FTD qualification rate; demand that rate before you celebrate the headline.

В публичный доступ вышел Grok 4.7

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