Bet Margin Lab
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Hard numbers for iGaming affiliates: payout benchmarks, RevShare vs CPA math, retention curves and GEO-level EPC data — so you stop guessing what a player is actually worth.
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GGR vs NGR: a 30% RevShare can mean two different paychecks
The most expensive ambiguity in a deal sheet: whether RevShare is on GGR (gross gaming revenue — wagers minus winnings, before bonuses) or NGR (after bonus and fee deductions).

The gap between GGR and NGR is typically 15-30% of gross, driven mostly by bonus spend. So '30% of NGR' and '30% of GGR' on the same player activity differ by 15-30% in your pocket — for an identical headline rate.

Illustrative on $1,000 GGR with $250 bonus/fee deductions: 30% of GGR = $300; 30% of NGR ($750) = $225. Same percentage, 25% less money.

— Confirm the base (GGR or NGR) before comparing any two rates
— A 28% GGR deal usually beats a 35% NGR deal — run the base, not the headline
— Aggressive bonus operators widen the GGR-NGR gap, hurting NGR-based deals more

Benchmark of the day: GGR-based RevShare typically pays 15-30% more than NGR-based at the same nominal rate.


Про session rpm benchmarks подробнее — @RPMReceipts
The CPA-RevShare crossover sits at month 4.2, not "it depends"
Across ~40 tracked Tier-1 sportsbook deals, the median crossover point — where cumulative RevShare earnings overtake a one-time CPA — lands at month 4.2.

The math: CPA $180 flat. RevShare at 35% of NGR (net gaming revenue = stakes minus payouts minus bonus cost), on a player generating ~$38 NGR/month, pays ~$13.30/month. $180 ÷ $13.30 = 13.5 months to nominal parity — but apply a 9%/month churn cohort and the discounted streams cross at month 4.2 in present-value terms because early months carry the surviving population.

The trap: operators quote the 13.5-month figure to push you toward CPA. The PV figure is the one that matters if you can hold traffic quality.

— Below ~$30 NGR/month, CPA wins outright; the stream never catches up before churn kills it.
— Above ~$50 NGR/month, RevShare wins by month 3.

Benchmark of the day: crossover ≈ CPA ÷ (monthly NGR × rev-share rate × survival factor) — solve for your own cohort before signing.
Your RevShare is quietly 40% smaller than the GGR headline
GGR (gross gaming revenue = stakes minus payouts) is the number operators advertise. NGR (net) is what RevShare actually pays on — and the haircut between them averages 38% across ~25 deals I've modeled.

Where the 38% goes:
— Bonus cost: 18-22% of GGR on aggressive welcome offers.
— Payment processing: 4-6%.
— Gaming/betting duty passed through: 8-15% depending on GEO.
— Affiliate/platform fees deducted pre-share: 2-4%.

So a "40% RevShare" on a player doing $100 GGR/month is not $40. It's 40% of ~$62 NGR ≈ $24.80. That's an effective 24.8% on GGR.

The leverage point: negotiate which deductions hit your base. Capping bonus deduction at the operator's blended average (not your specific player's first-month offer) recovers 6-9 points of effective rate.

Benchmark of the day: effective GGR rate = quoted NGR rate × (1 − deduction stack); demand the deduction stack in writing before you compare two offers.