Netflix acquired Estonian startup Ready Player Me on 19 December.
Ready Player Me develops cross-platform avatar technology used in games and virtual environments.
The startup previously raised about $70m from investors including Andreessen Horowitz (a16z).
Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The team will join Netflix’s gaming division; the standalone service is expected to be gradually phased out in 2026.
BSM © 2025 #Netflix #Estonia #Startups #Gaming #AI #VC #a16z #BalticTech
Ready Player Me develops cross-platform avatar technology used in games and virtual environments.
The startup previously raised about $70m from investors including Andreessen Horowitz (a16z).
Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The team will join Netflix’s gaming division; the standalone service is expected to be gradually phased out in 2026.
BSM © 2025 #Netflix #Estonia #Startups #Gaming #AI #VC #a16z #BalticTech
🇪🇪 Estonia to build 1 GW of controllable power plants — consumers to pay €1bn
Estonia will need up to 1,000 MW of new controllable power capacity by 2035 after phasing out oil-shale plants, according to Elering. The estimated cost is at least €1 billion, said Eesti Energia CEO Andrus Durejko.
Gas-fired plants are currently the cheapest option, while oil-shale and nuclear would be significantly more expensive.
These plants will mostly stay in reserve and operate only during high-price periods, meaning they will not pay back their investment through the market.
Costs for consumers:
From 2026, consumers will start covering system maintenance costs. The fixed annual cost is estimated at around €60 million — roughly €2 per month for an average household.
Elering CEO Kalle Kilk says this payment will likely remain permanent, functioning like an “insurance premium” for supply security.
Context (why it matters):
Estonia is openly pricing the cost of reliability in a renewable-heavy system. The case shows how decarbonisation shifts energy costs from production to capacity readiness — a model likely to spread across the Baltics.
Source: ERR / Elering BSM © 2025. #EnergySecurity #PowerCapacity #Estonia #Decarbonisation
Estonia will need up to 1,000 MW of new controllable power capacity by 2035 after phasing out oil-shale plants, according to Elering. The estimated cost is at least €1 billion, said Eesti Energia CEO Andrus Durejko.
Gas-fired plants are currently the cheapest option, while oil-shale and nuclear would be significantly more expensive.
These plants will mostly stay in reserve and operate only during high-price periods, meaning they will not pay back their investment through the market.
Costs for consumers:
From 2026, consumers will start covering system maintenance costs. The fixed annual cost is estimated at around €60 million — roughly €2 per month for an average household.
Elering CEO Kalle Kilk says this payment will likely remain permanent, functioning like an “insurance premium” for supply security.
Context (why it matters):
Estonia is openly pricing the cost of reliability in a renewable-heavy system. The case shows how decarbonisation shifts energy costs from production to capacity readiness — a model likely to spread across the Baltics.
Source: ERR / Elering BSM © 2025. #EnergySecurity #PowerCapacity #Estonia #Decarbonisation
Baltic Shift Map — Signals of the Week (15–21 Dec 2025)
Latvia — airBaltic: growth without utilisation
airBaltic passenger numbers rose modestly in 2025, but load factors declined as capacity expanded faster than demand. Growth is increasingly driven by fleet deployment and leasing rather than higher aircraft utilisation. Leasing has become a structural stabiliser ahead of a potential IPO.
Lithuania — Ports consolidate structural leadership
Port of Klaipėda confirmed its role as the Baltic cargo benchmark, combining scale, containerisation and ro-ro density. Growth is broad-based and embedded in EU logistics chains, not dependent on single transit flows. This marks a structural, not cyclical, advantage.
Latvia — Institutional capital enters agri-food
Agrova International attracted a 23% institutional investor, signalling rare large-scale capital inflow into asset-heavy food production. The focus is on vertical integration, energy efficiency and export capacity. Investors are selectively backing real-economy assets amid a weak industrial cycle.
Estonia — Energy security priced explicitly
Elering plans up to 1 GW of controllable power capacity, funded by permanent consumer payments. Reliability is being treated as an insurance cost in a renewable-heavy system. This model is likely to spread across the region.
Latvia — Affordable rental housing becomes permanent policy
ALTUM accelerated regional rental housing projects backed by EU funds. The scale and rollout speed indicate a shift from ad-hoc municipal solutions to a long-term state-backed housing pipeline. Labour retention outside Riga is a key objective.
Estonia — Food safety enforcement exposes resilience gap
Agriculture and Food Board partially halted production at a mid-sized meat processor due to hygiene failures. The case highlights how preventive enforcement affects all firms equally, while operational resilience differs sharply. Smaller regional producers remain more vulnerable to compliance shocks.
Baltic Region — Inflation without overheating
Central bank and OECD assessments point to moderate growth paired with persistent domestic inflation in 2026. Wage growth, services and food prices — not energy or imports — are the main drivers. The Baltics face structurally constrained growth rather than cyclical recovery.
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
Latvia — airBaltic: growth without utilisation
airBaltic passenger numbers rose modestly in 2025, but load factors declined as capacity expanded faster than demand. Growth is increasingly driven by fleet deployment and leasing rather than higher aircraft utilisation. Leasing has become a structural stabiliser ahead of a potential IPO.
Lithuania — Ports consolidate structural leadership
Port of Klaipėda confirmed its role as the Baltic cargo benchmark, combining scale, containerisation and ro-ro density. Growth is broad-based and embedded in EU logistics chains, not dependent on single transit flows. This marks a structural, not cyclical, advantage.
Latvia — Institutional capital enters agri-food
Agrova International attracted a 23% institutional investor, signalling rare large-scale capital inflow into asset-heavy food production. The focus is on vertical integration, energy efficiency and export capacity. Investors are selectively backing real-economy assets amid a weak industrial cycle.
Estonia — Energy security priced explicitly
Elering plans up to 1 GW of controllable power capacity, funded by permanent consumer payments. Reliability is being treated as an insurance cost in a renewable-heavy system. This model is likely to spread across the region.
Latvia — Affordable rental housing becomes permanent policy
ALTUM accelerated regional rental housing projects backed by EU funds. The scale and rollout speed indicate a shift from ad-hoc municipal solutions to a long-term state-backed housing pipeline. Labour retention outside Riga is a key objective.
Estonia — Food safety enforcement exposes resilience gap
Agriculture and Food Board partially halted production at a mid-sized meat processor due to hygiene failures. The case highlights how preventive enforcement affects all firms equally, while operational resilience differs sharply. Smaller regional producers remain more vulnerable to compliance shocks.
Baltic Region — Inflation without overheating
Central bank and OECD assessments point to moderate growth paired with persistent domestic inflation in 2026. Wage growth, services and food prices — not energy or imports — are the main drivers. The Baltics face structurally constrained growth rather than cyclical recovery.
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
China introduces provisional countervailing measures on EU dairy imports
Beijing, Dec 22 — official Chinese sources.
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Monday published preliminary rulings in its countervailing investigation into selected dairy products imported from the European Union.
According to MOFCOM Announcement No. 83 (2025), China will apply provisional countervailing measures in the form of duty deposits on EU-origin dairy imports, effective 23 December.
⚠️ The measures and rates are preliminary and may be revised following the final investigation.
Key elements (preliminary data)
• Measure type: provisional countervailing duty deposits
• Rate range: 21.9%–42.7%, depending on exporter and level of cooperation
◦ sampled cooperating companies — individual rates within the range
◦ other cooperating companies — 28.6%
◦ non-cooperating companies — 42.7%
• Products covered: milk and cream (fat content >10%), fresh and processed cheeses, blue cheeses and other dairy products
• HS codes: 04015000, 04061000, 04062000, 04063000, 04064000, 04069000
• Investigation launch: 21 August 2024, following an application by China’s dairy industry association
• Preliminary finding: a causal link between EU subsidies and material injury to China’s domestic dairy industry
• Investigation deadline: extended until 21 February 2026
In a separate official Q&A, the Ministry of Commerce stated that the investigation followed standard procedures, including data collection, hearings and verification, and stressed that the current measures are temporary and reversible pending the final ruling.
Context
The measures announced by China are provisional countervailing duty deposits, not final tariffs. This places the dairy case at an early, reversible stage of the trade-remedy process.
Unlike the EU pork case — where China imposed final anti-dumping duties for five years on 17 December — the dairy investigation remains open until 21 February 2026. The use of temporary deposits indicates that Beijing is signalling pressure rather than locking in long-term restrictions, leaving room for bilateral consultations and potential adjustments before the final ruling.
In practice, the current rate range — reaching up to 42.7% — functions as a warning mechanism. Final duties may be lowered, revised or withdrawn depending on the outcome of the investigation and EU-China negotiations over the coming months.BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
Beijing, Dec 22 — official Chinese sources.
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Monday published preliminary rulings in its countervailing investigation into selected dairy products imported from the European Union.
According to MOFCOM Announcement No. 83 (2025), China will apply provisional countervailing measures in the form of duty deposits on EU-origin dairy imports, effective 23 December.
⚠️ The measures and rates are preliminary and may be revised following the final investigation.
Key elements (preliminary data)
• Measure type: provisional countervailing duty deposits
• Rate range: 21.9%–42.7%, depending on exporter and level of cooperation
◦ sampled cooperating companies — individual rates within the range
◦ other cooperating companies — 28.6%
◦ non-cooperating companies — 42.7%
• Products covered: milk and cream (fat content >10%), fresh and processed cheeses, blue cheeses and other dairy products
• HS codes: 04015000, 04061000, 04062000, 04063000, 04064000, 04069000
• Investigation launch: 21 August 2024, following an application by China’s dairy industry association
• Preliminary finding: a causal link between EU subsidies and material injury to China’s domestic dairy industry
• Investigation deadline: extended until 21 February 2026
In a separate official Q&A, the Ministry of Commerce stated that the investigation followed standard procedures, including data collection, hearings and verification, and stressed that the current measures are temporary and reversible pending the final ruling.
Context
The measures announced by China are provisional countervailing duty deposits, not final tariffs. This places the dairy case at an early, reversible stage of the trade-remedy process.
Unlike the EU pork case — where China imposed final anti-dumping duties for five years on 17 December — the dairy investigation remains open until 21 February 2026. The use of temporary deposits indicates that Beijing is signalling pressure rather than locking in long-term restrictions, leaving room for bilateral consultations and potential adjustments before the final ruling.
In practice, the current rate range — reaching up to 42.7% — functions as a warning mechanism. Final duties may be lowered, revised or withdrawn depending on the outcome of the investigation and EU-China negotiations over the coming months.BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 Baltic Central Banks: what do their presidents say about 2026?
The heads of the Baltic central banks have summed up the economic year and presented their outlooks for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Growth is expected across the region, but the drivers — and the risks — differ significantly. What did the presidents of the central banks highlight in their latest forecasts?
🇪🇪 Estonia | Eesti Pank (Dec 2025)
Growth via fiscal stimulus — at the cost of rising debt
• GDP growth: 3.6% in 2026, slowing to ~2.5% by 2028
• Drivers: tax changes, higher public spending, lower interest rates
• Budget deficit: largest in 30 years (excluding pandemic)
• Public debt: 31.5% of GDP by 2028
• Annual interest costs: ~€400m, double current level
Key point: short-term boost financed by debt; delayed fiscal consolidation increases future risks.
🇱🇹 Lithuania | Lietuvos bankas (Dec 2025)
Cyclical growth driven by pension reform
• GDP growth:
◦ 2025: 2.5%
◦ 2026: 3.2%
◦ 2027: 2.3%
◦ 2028: 3.0%
• Main factor: second-pillar pension withdrawals
◦ €1.2bn consumption boost in 2026
◦ Sharp slowdown in 2027
◦ New boost in 2028 (~€0.5bn)
• Inflation steadily declines to ~2.5% by 2028
Key point: growth comes in waves — policy-driven, not structural.
🇱🇻 Latvia | Latvijas Banka (Dec 2025)
Gradual recovery with higher inflation and debt
• GDP growth:
◦ 2025: 1.7%
◦ 2026: 2.8%
◦ 2027: 2.9%
◦ 2028: 3.2%
• Inflation: 3–4% throughout the period
◦ 2025: 3.9%
◦ 2028 spike linked to ETS2, excise taxes, regulated tariffs
• Budget deficit: >3% of GDP
• Public debt: ~51% of GDP by 2028, driven by defence spending
Key point: more stable growth path, but persistent inflation pressure and rising debt.
🧭 Baltic comparison — core takeaway
• 🇪🇪 Estonia: fastest rebound, fiscally risky
• 🇱🇹 Lithuania: internally engineered cycles
• 🇱🇻 Latvia: smoother recovery, higher inflation and debt burden
All three economies recover — but through very different policy choices.#BalticFocus #BalticEconomy #CentralBanks #EconomicOutlook #Macroeconomics #Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania
The heads of the Baltic central banks have summed up the economic year and presented their outlooks for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Growth is expected across the region, but the drivers — and the risks — differ significantly. What did the presidents of the central banks highlight in their latest forecasts?
🇪🇪 Estonia | Eesti Pank (Dec 2025)
Growth via fiscal stimulus — at the cost of rising debt
• GDP growth: 3.6% in 2026, slowing to ~2.5% by 2028
• Drivers: tax changes, higher public spending, lower interest rates
• Budget deficit: largest in 30 years (excluding pandemic)
• Public debt: 31.5% of GDP by 2028
• Annual interest costs: ~€400m, double current level
Key point: short-term boost financed by debt; delayed fiscal consolidation increases future risks.
🇱🇹 Lithuania | Lietuvos bankas (Dec 2025)
Cyclical growth driven by pension reform
• GDP growth:
◦ 2025: 2.5%
◦ 2026: 3.2%
◦ 2027: 2.3%
◦ 2028: 3.0%
• Main factor: second-pillar pension withdrawals
◦ €1.2bn consumption boost in 2026
◦ Sharp slowdown in 2027
◦ New boost in 2028 (~€0.5bn)
• Inflation steadily declines to ~2.5% by 2028
Key point: growth comes in waves — policy-driven, not structural.
🇱🇻 Latvia | Latvijas Banka (Dec 2025)
Gradual recovery with higher inflation and debt
• GDP growth:
◦ 2025: 1.7%
◦ 2026: 2.8%
◦ 2027: 2.9%
◦ 2028: 3.2%
• Inflation: 3–4% throughout the period
◦ 2025: 3.9%
◦ 2028 spike linked to ETS2, excise taxes, regulated tariffs
• Budget deficit: >3% of GDP
• Public debt: ~51% of GDP by 2028, driven by defence spending
Key point: more stable growth path, but persistent inflation pressure and rising debt.
🧭 Baltic comparison — core takeaway
• 🇪🇪 Estonia: fastest rebound, fiscally risky
• 🇱🇹 Lithuania: internally engineered cycles
• 🇱🇻 Latvia: smoother recovery, higher inflation and debt burden
All three economies recover — but through very different policy choices.#BalticFocus #BalticEconomy #CentralBanks #EconomicOutlook #Macroeconomics #Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania
🇱🇻 Latvia | Industry
Latvijas Finieris expands plywood capacity in Latgale through Verems
The Latvijas Finieris group has launched a new large-format birch plywood production line in eastern Latvia through its subsidiary Verems RSEZ SIA, located in the Rēzekne Special Economic Zone.
The facility is currently operating in test mode, with final commissioning still underway. The project forms part of a broader, phased investment programme at group level.
Confirmed state aid amounts to €10 million.
The group refers to a total projected investment envelope exceeding €100 million, representing the upper range of planned capital expenditure rather than a fully completed investment.
Markets and production
The expanded capacity targets large-format birch plywood products used in:
transport equipment, including LNG carrier construction,
automotive manufacturing,
construction formwork.
Exports are primarily oriented toward European markets, with additional deliveries to Asia.
Raw material sourcing
Birch veneer supply will be managed at group level, with Verems relying mainly on internal production and supplementary deliveries from Likmerė in Lithuania, another production unit within the Latvijas Finieris group.
This intra-group sourcing approach reduces operational risk but underscores the structural importance of regional birch availability as plywood capacity expands across the Baltics.
Employment and outlook
The new production line is expected to increase employment at Verems by around 80 positions.
Further investments are possible, though on a more limited scale, depending on market conditions and capacity utilisation once the facility reaches full operation.
Context (Baltic Focus)
This case reflects a group-driven industrial expansion, where a tangible production asset is already in place, while the full scale and timing of investment outlays remain flexible. The actual economic impact will depend on utilisation rates, export demand and raw material flows over the next cycle.
BDW © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus
Latvijas Finieris expands plywood capacity in Latgale through Verems
The Latvijas Finieris group has launched a new large-format birch plywood production line in eastern Latvia through its subsidiary Verems RSEZ SIA, located in the Rēzekne Special Economic Zone.
The facility is currently operating in test mode, with final commissioning still underway. The project forms part of a broader, phased investment programme at group level.
Confirmed state aid amounts to €10 million.
The group refers to a total projected investment envelope exceeding €100 million, representing the upper range of planned capital expenditure rather than a fully completed investment.
Markets and production
The expanded capacity targets large-format birch plywood products used in:
transport equipment, including LNG carrier construction,
automotive manufacturing,
construction formwork.
Exports are primarily oriented toward European markets, with additional deliveries to Asia.
Raw material sourcing
Birch veneer supply will be managed at group level, with Verems relying mainly on internal production and supplementary deliveries from Likmerė in Lithuania, another production unit within the Latvijas Finieris group.
This intra-group sourcing approach reduces operational risk but underscores the structural importance of regional birch availability as plywood capacity expands across the Baltics.
Employment and outlook
The new production line is expected to increase employment at Verems by around 80 positions.
Further investments are possible, though on a more limited scale, depending on market conditions and capacity utilisation once the facility reaches full operation.
Context (Baltic Focus)
This case reflects a group-driven industrial expansion, where a tangible production asset is already in place, while the full scale and timing of investment outlays remain flexible. The actual economic impact will depend on utilisation rates, export demand and raw material flows over the next cycle.
BDW © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus
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🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪 Baltic Grocery Index — weekly snapshot (online retail)
Prices observed: week ending 26 December 2025
Baseline (non-promotional) prices
📌 Prices are based on online grocery listings from Rimi and Maxima/Barbora platforms across the Baltic states.
🇱🇻 Latvia
Milk 1L — 0.75
Bread 300g — 0.39
Eggs (10) — 1.99
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.49
Potatoes 1kg — 0.59
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.99
Rice 800g — 1.19
Sugar 1kg — 0.75
⚠️ Pork: boneless pork shoulder not available online during the observation period. Promotional pork neck offers excluded.
🇱🇹 Lithuania
Milk 1L — 0.62–0.65
Bread 300g — 0.34
Eggs (10) — 2.15
Chicken fillet 1kg — 7.49–8.49
Potatoes 1kg — 0.49–0.50
Carrots 1kg — 0.58–0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.54
Rice 800g — 0.95
Sugar 1kg — 0.69–0.89
⚠️ Pork: boneless pork shoulder not available online during the observation period.
🇪🇪 Estonia
Milk 1L — 0.55–0.59
Bread 300g — 0.43–0.48
Eggs (10) — 1.69
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.99
Potatoes 1kg — 0.39
Carrots 1kg — 0.45
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.59–1.79
Rice 800g — 0.39
Sugar 1kg — 0.73
Pork (front-cut, boneless) 1kg — 6.99
📌 In Estonia, a boneless front-cut pork (“sea abaliha kondita”) is used as a functional equivalent for index continuity.
🧺 What the data show
A low-price essential basket clearly exists across the Baltics.
From late November through 26 December, baseline prices for core everyday goods remained broadly stable in all three countries. No generalized pre-holiday price surge was observed.
⚠️ Where Latvia stands out
• Rice — persistently higher baseline prices than in Lithuania and Estonia.
• Vegetables — higher base prices than in Estonia, with price sensitivity managed through frequent promotions.
🧠 Interpretation
The pattern points to differences in competitive pressure, rather than harvest conditions or short-term inflation. In more competitive markets, baseline prices are constrained; where competition is weaker, retailers retain more pricing flexibility in selected categories.
📌 Promotional prices are excluded from the baseline.
BDW © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#BalticFocus #BalticGroceryIndex #FoodPrices #CostOfLiving #Retail #InflationWatch
Prices observed: week ending 26 December 2025
Baseline (non-promotional) prices
📌 Prices are based on online grocery listings from Rimi and Maxima/Barbora platforms across the Baltic states.
🇱🇻 Latvia
Milk 1L — 0.75
Bread 300g — 0.39
Eggs (10) — 1.99
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.49
Potatoes 1kg — 0.59
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.99
Rice 800g — 1.19
Sugar 1kg — 0.75
⚠️ Pork: boneless pork shoulder not available online during the observation period. Promotional pork neck offers excluded.
🇱🇹 Lithuania
Milk 1L — 0.62–0.65
Bread 300g — 0.34
Eggs (10) — 2.15
Chicken fillet 1kg — 7.49–8.49
Potatoes 1kg — 0.49–0.50
Carrots 1kg — 0.58–0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.54
Rice 800g — 0.95
Sugar 1kg — 0.69–0.89
⚠️ Pork: boneless pork shoulder not available online during the observation period.
🇪🇪 Estonia
Milk 1L — 0.55–0.59
Bread 300g — 0.43–0.48
Eggs (10) — 1.69
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.99
Potatoes 1kg — 0.39
Carrots 1kg — 0.45
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.59–1.79
Rice 800g — 0.39
Sugar 1kg — 0.73
Pork (front-cut, boneless) 1kg — 6.99
📌 In Estonia, a boneless front-cut pork (“sea abaliha kondita”) is used as a functional equivalent for index continuity.
🧺 What the data show
A low-price essential basket clearly exists across the Baltics.
From late November through 26 December, baseline prices for core everyday goods remained broadly stable in all three countries. No generalized pre-holiday price surge was observed.
⚠️ Where Latvia stands out
• Rice — persistently higher baseline prices than in Lithuania and Estonia.
• Vegetables — higher base prices than in Estonia, with price sensitivity managed through frequent promotions.
🧠 Interpretation
The pattern points to differences in competitive pressure, rather than harvest conditions or short-term inflation. In more competitive markets, baseline prices are constrained; where competition is weaker, retailers retain more pricing flexibility in selected categories.
📌 Promotional prices are excluded from the baseline.
BDW © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#BalticFocus #BalticGroceryIndex #FoodPrices #CostOfLiving #Retail #InflationWatch
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🇱🇹Lithuania Tightens State Language Rules for Customer Service — Baltic Context
Lithuania has announced stricter enforcement of state language requirements in customer service, explicitly extending them to couriers, taxi drivers and other platform-based service providers from 1 January 2026. The rules include a transition period and fines, marking one of the clearest regulatory moves in the Baltic region to adapt language policy to the platform economy.
🇱🇹Lithuania
Lithuanian law has long required service providers to know the state language, but the new rules formalise this obligation for gig-economy workers. Couriers, ride-hailing drivers and other service staff must serve customers in Lithuanian at a basic level (A1, later A2), with supervision by the State Language Inspectorate and defined penalties after a tolerance period.
🇱🇻Latvia
Latvia has enforced state-language requirements in customer service for many years under its State Language Law. Employees working with customers must use Latvian at a level sufficient for their duties. Recent policy changes focus not on introducing new rules, but on more consistent application in regulated sectors, including financial services.
🇪🇪Estonia
In Estonia, consumers have a legal right to receive services and information in Estonian. Employers are responsible for ensuring adequate language skills among staff, typically at B1–B2 level depending on the role. In 2024–2025, enforcement was strengthened through higher fines and increased inspections, including in platform-based services.
Context
The Lithuanian move highlights a broader Baltic trend: governments are not revising the principle of state-language use, but tightening enforcement and adapting existing laws to labour mobility, platform work and digital services. Language competence is increasingly treated as a regulatory condition for access to the services market.
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus
Lithuania has announced stricter enforcement of state language requirements in customer service, explicitly extending them to couriers, taxi drivers and other platform-based service providers from 1 January 2026. The rules include a transition period and fines, marking one of the clearest regulatory moves in the Baltic region to adapt language policy to the platform economy.
🇱🇹Lithuania
Lithuanian law has long required service providers to know the state language, but the new rules formalise this obligation for gig-economy workers. Couriers, ride-hailing drivers and other service staff must serve customers in Lithuanian at a basic level (A1, later A2), with supervision by the State Language Inspectorate and defined penalties after a tolerance period.
🇱🇻Latvia
Latvia has enforced state-language requirements in customer service for many years under its State Language Law. Employees working with customers must use Latvian at a level sufficient for their duties. Recent policy changes focus not on introducing new rules, but on more consistent application in regulated sectors, including financial services.
🇪🇪Estonia
In Estonia, consumers have a legal right to receive services and information in Estonian. Employers are responsible for ensuring adequate language skills among staff, typically at B1–B2 level depending on the role. In 2024–2025, enforcement was strengthened through higher fines and increased inspections, including in platform-based services.
Context
The Lithuanian move highlights a broader Baltic trend: governments are not revising the principle of state-language use, but tightening enforcement and adapting existing laws to labour mobility, platform work and digital services. Language competence is increasingly treated as a regulatory condition for access to the services market.
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus
🇱🇻 RTU opens tenure-track positions in AI, energy and photonics
Riga Technical University (RTU) has announced a competition for tenure-track (tenūrprofesors) positions.
The call focuses on a narrow set of advanced fields: smart energy systems, photonics technologies, artificial intelligence, including natural language processing, explainable AI, AI safety, and cybersecurity of intelligent systems.
Context
The structure of the call mirrors current EU priorities: trustworthy AI, system security, and energy technologies.
For a Baltic university, a tenure-track format combined with explicit mentions of Explainable AI and AI safety signals an attempt to speak the language of the international academic market rather than a routine internal hire.
Why it matters
Not a breakthrough — but a clear shift in how RTU positions itself within Europe’s technology and research landscape.BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus
Riga Technical University (RTU) has announced a competition for tenure-track (tenūrprofesors) positions.
The call focuses on a narrow set of advanced fields: smart energy systems, photonics technologies, artificial intelligence, including natural language processing, explainable AI, AI safety, and cybersecurity of intelligent systems.
Context
The structure of the call mirrors current EU priorities: trustworthy AI, system security, and energy technologies.
For a Baltic university, a tenure-track format combined with explicit mentions of Explainable AI and AI safety signals an attempt to speak the language of the international academic market rather than a routine internal hire.
Why it matters
Not a breakthrough — but a clear shift in how RTU positions itself within Europe’s technology and research landscape.BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus
Baltic Focus — Weekly Energy Theme
Baltic electricity system: capacity, demand, and domestic generation
EU context.
The European Commission links high electricity prices and system inefficiencies to insufficient cross-border grid capacity. According to the Commission, improved coordination and grid development could reduce curtailment and system losses, with potential savings of up to €500bn by mid-century.
At the same time, policy debate increasingly focuses on cost allocation and system resilience, rather than market access alone.
Cross-border interconnections: physical capacity (MW)
• EstLink 1 (EE–FI): 350 MW
• EstLink 2 (EE–FI): 650 MW
Estonia–Finland total: 1,000 MW
• NordBalt (LT–SE): 700 MW
• LitPol Link (LT–PL): 500 MW
Total nominal cross-border capacity serving the Baltics: ~2.2 GW
This figure represents a technical ceiling, not guaranteed availability.
Actual usable capacity may be lower due to maintenance, outages, or system security constraints.
Electricity consumption: demand scale (2024, approx., TWh)
• Estonia: ~8–9 TWh
• Latvia: ~6.5–7.5 TWh
• Lithuania: ~11–12 TWh
Baltic total: ~26–28 TWh per year
With EU energy-efficiency standards broadly harmonised, these differences primarily reflect current demand scale and economic structure, not efficiency gaps.
Domestic generation and system support
Latvia — hydropower as a balancing asset
• Installed hydropower capacity: ~1,560 MW
(Pļaviņas ~900 MW, Rīga ~400 MW, Ķegums ~260 MW)
• Annual generation (2024, approx.): ~3.0–3.8 TWh
Hydropower covers ~45–55% of Latvia’s annual electricity consumption, but only ~11–14% of total Baltic demand.
System role:
Latvian hydropower is dispatched primarily for balancing, peak coverage, and frequency support. It does not operate as continuous baseload, and its annual output is constrained by hydrological conditions.
Electricity exports therefore reflect system needs and market conditions, rather than sustained energy surplus, and do not structurally lower domestic electricity costs.
Estonia — oil shale as controllable generation
• Installed oil-shale-based capacity (Narva complex): ~1,000–1,300 MW
• Annual electricity generation (2024, approx.): ~4–5 TWh
Despite declining utilisation due to cost and climate policy, oil shale remains a dispatchable domestic resource, available for system security and peak demand coverage. This reduces Estonia’s reliance on imports during stress periods.
Lithuania — deficit market and gateway
Lithuania concentrates the region’s external entry points:
• NordBalt connects the Baltics to the Nordic hydro-based system.
• LitPol Link provides the only physical land connection to continental Europe.
This role is driven by geography, not market choice.
At the same time, Lithuania is the largest electricity-deficit market in the Baltics, making these interconnections essential for covering domestic demand as well as for transit.
Gas — methodological note
Gas is excluded from the core electricity balance. As an imported fuel, it does not currently constitute a structural element of the Baltic power system.
Its impact would become material only if gas-fired capacity were deployed explicitly as domestic reserve or peaking generation (for example, through a dedicated reserve plant).
As of now, gas affects the electricity system marginally and indirectly, not as a core balancing asset.
Capacity vs demand: the structural constraint
The Baltic electricity system operates with:
• hundreds of megawatts of cross-border capacity, versus
• tens of terawatt-hours of annual demand.
This asymmetry highlights a key vulnerability:
a single major cable outage can remove a material share of import capacity, which cannot be rapidly replaced due to physical limits of remaining interconnections.
Baltic electricity system: capacity, demand, and domestic generation
EU context.
The European Commission links high electricity prices and system inefficiencies to insufficient cross-border grid capacity. According to the Commission, improved coordination and grid development could reduce curtailment and system losses, with potential savings of up to €500bn by mid-century.
At the same time, policy debate increasingly focuses on cost allocation and system resilience, rather than market access alone.
Cross-border interconnections: physical capacity (MW)
• EstLink 1 (EE–FI): 350 MW
• EstLink 2 (EE–FI): 650 MW
Estonia–Finland total: 1,000 MW
• NordBalt (LT–SE): 700 MW
• LitPol Link (LT–PL): 500 MW
Total nominal cross-border capacity serving the Baltics: ~2.2 GW
This figure represents a technical ceiling, not guaranteed availability.
Actual usable capacity may be lower due to maintenance, outages, or system security constraints.
Electricity consumption: demand scale (2024, approx., TWh)
• Estonia: ~8–9 TWh
• Latvia: ~6.5–7.5 TWh
• Lithuania: ~11–12 TWh
Baltic total: ~26–28 TWh per year
With EU energy-efficiency standards broadly harmonised, these differences primarily reflect current demand scale and economic structure, not efficiency gaps.
Domestic generation and system support
Latvia — hydropower as a balancing asset
• Installed hydropower capacity: ~1,560 MW
(Pļaviņas ~900 MW, Rīga ~400 MW, Ķegums ~260 MW)
• Annual generation (2024, approx.): ~3.0–3.8 TWh
Hydropower covers ~45–55% of Latvia’s annual electricity consumption, but only ~11–14% of total Baltic demand.
System role:
Latvian hydropower is dispatched primarily for balancing, peak coverage, and frequency support. It does not operate as continuous baseload, and its annual output is constrained by hydrological conditions.
Electricity exports therefore reflect system needs and market conditions, rather than sustained energy surplus, and do not structurally lower domestic electricity costs.
Estonia — oil shale as controllable generation
• Installed oil-shale-based capacity (Narva complex): ~1,000–1,300 MW
• Annual electricity generation (2024, approx.): ~4–5 TWh
Despite declining utilisation due to cost and climate policy, oil shale remains a dispatchable domestic resource, available for system security and peak demand coverage. This reduces Estonia’s reliance on imports during stress periods.
Lithuania — deficit market and gateway
Lithuania concentrates the region’s external entry points:
• NordBalt connects the Baltics to the Nordic hydro-based system.
• LitPol Link provides the only physical land connection to continental Europe.
This role is driven by geography, not market choice.
At the same time, Lithuania is the largest electricity-deficit market in the Baltics, making these interconnections essential for covering domestic demand as well as for transit.
Gas — methodological note
Gas is excluded from the core electricity balance. As an imported fuel, it does not currently constitute a structural element of the Baltic power system.
Its impact would become material only if gas-fired capacity were deployed explicitly as domestic reserve or peaking generation (for example, through a dedicated reserve plant).
As of now, gas affects the electricity system marginally and indirectly, not as a core balancing asset.
Capacity vs demand: the structural constraint
The Baltic electricity system operates with:
• hundreds of megawatts of cross-border capacity, versus
• tens of terawatt-hours of annual demand.
This asymmetry highlights a key vulnerability:
a single major cable outage can remove a material share of import capacity, which cannot be rapidly replaced due to physical limits of remaining interconnections.
Analytical takeaway
• Cross-border interconnections improve flexibility and reduce curtailment risks.
• Domestic generation in Latvia and Estonia strengthens system stability, not energy abundance.
• Physical capacity limits and uneven demand remain binding constraints.
The Baltic region already illustrates a broader EU challenge:
electricity market integration advances faster than convergence in demand scale and system cost allocation.
BSM © 2025 balticfocus.org
#balticfocus #BalticEnergy #ElectricityMarkets #PowerGrid #EnergySecurity #NordicBaltic #EUenergy
• Cross-border interconnections improve flexibility and reduce curtailment risks.
• Domestic generation in Latvia and Estonia strengthens system stability, not energy abundance.
• Physical capacity limits and uneven demand remain binding constraints.
The Baltic region already illustrates a broader EU challenge:
electricity market integration advances faster than convergence in demand scale and system cost allocation.
BSM © 2025 balticfocus.org
#balticfocus #BalticEnergy #ElectricityMarkets #PowerGrid #EnergySecurity #NordicBaltic #EUenergy
Wind Energy in the Baltic States: Year-End Snapshot
At the end of 2025, wind energy development across the Baltic States shows a clearly differentiated landscape, shaped primarily by market maturity, ownership structure, and project pipelines rather than short-term sentiment indicators.
Public support for wind energy in Latvia broadly corresponds to the current stage of sector development in the Baltic region.
Latvia: Early-stage market with projects under development
By the end of 2025, Latvia’s installed onshore wind capacity stands at approximately 136 MW, making it the smallest wind market among the three Baltic States. The country has two major operational wind parks, both owned by the Estonian private energy company Utilitas, which is also active in wind energy development across the Baltic region.
The Latvian state-owned energy company Latvenergo does not own operational wind farms domestically, but holds several projects at the development stage. The most advanced of these is the Kaigu project (around 109 MW), with commissioning expected in 2026. Other large-scale projects remain on a later timeline.
Estonia: A mature, diversified wind market
Estonia has reached close to 700 MW of installed wind capacity. The market is characterised by several major players rather than a single dominant owner.
Key participants include state-linked Enefit Green and private energy company Utilitas, alongside additional developers. Estonia has largely transitioned from individual pilot projects to a stable portfolio of operating wind assets, and Estonian companies are active investors beyond national borders.
Lithuania: Scale, national leadership, and international capital
Lithuania is the clear regional leader, with installed wind capacity of approximately 2.3 GW by the end of 2025. The sector is anchored by Ignitis Group, the national energy company, which develops and operates the largest wind projects in the Baltic States, including the Kelmė onshore wind farm (314 MW).
Lithuania also attracts significant international investment. Latvenergo participates in two large Lithuanian wind projects through direct equity ownership in project companies, acting as a capital investor rather than a contractor or service provider. This underlines Lithuania’s role as a regional platform for scaling wind energy investments.
Regional picture at year-end
By the close of 2025, the Baltic wind energy map shows three distinct models:
• Latvia remains at an early development stage, with limited operational capacity and a pipeline concentrated in future projects.
• Estonia represents a mature, diversified market with multiple established owners and outward investment activity.
• Lithuania has reached systemic scale, combining national leadership with sustained inflows of international capital.
Together, these differences define the current balance of wind energy development in the Baltic region as the sector moves into the next investment cycle.
BSM © 2025 #BalticEnergy #WindEnergy #Renewables #EnergyTransition #Baltics #Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia #EnergyMarkets #Infrastructure
At the end of 2025, wind energy development across the Baltic States shows a clearly differentiated landscape, shaped primarily by market maturity, ownership structure, and project pipelines rather than short-term sentiment indicators.
Public support for wind energy in Latvia broadly corresponds to the current stage of sector development in the Baltic region.
Latvia: Early-stage market with projects under development
By the end of 2025, Latvia’s installed onshore wind capacity stands at approximately 136 MW, making it the smallest wind market among the three Baltic States. The country has two major operational wind parks, both owned by the Estonian private energy company Utilitas, which is also active in wind energy development across the Baltic region.
The Latvian state-owned energy company Latvenergo does not own operational wind farms domestically, but holds several projects at the development stage. The most advanced of these is the Kaigu project (around 109 MW), with commissioning expected in 2026. Other large-scale projects remain on a later timeline.
Estonia: A mature, diversified wind market
Estonia has reached close to 700 MW of installed wind capacity. The market is characterised by several major players rather than a single dominant owner.
Key participants include state-linked Enefit Green and private energy company Utilitas, alongside additional developers. Estonia has largely transitioned from individual pilot projects to a stable portfolio of operating wind assets, and Estonian companies are active investors beyond national borders.
Lithuania: Scale, national leadership, and international capital
Lithuania is the clear regional leader, with installed wind capacity of approximately 2.3 GW by the end of 2025. The sector is anchored by Ignitis Group, the national energy company, which develops and operates the largest wind projects in the Baltic States, including the Kelmė onshore wind farm (314 MW).
Lithuania also attracts significant international investment. Latvenergo participates in two large Lithuanian wind projects through direct equity ownership in project companies, acting as a capital investor rather than a contractor or service provider. This underlines Lithuania’s role as a regional platform for scaling wind energy investments.
Regional picture at year-end
By the close of 2025, the Baltic wind energy map shows three distinct models:
• Latvia remains at an early development stage, with limited operational capacity and a pipeline concentrated in future projects.
• Estonia represents a mature, diversified market with multiple established owners and outward investment activity.
• Lithuania has reached systemic scale, combining national leadership with sustained inflows of international capital.
Together, these differences define the current balance of wind energy development in the Baltic region as the sector moves into the next investment cycle.
BSM © 2025 #BalticEnergy #WindEnergy #Renewables #EnergyTransition #Baltics #Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia #EnergyMarkets #Infrastructure
PRFoods sells Saaremaa fish processing unit to Latvia’s Brīvais Vilnis
PRFoods has approved the sale of its Estonian subsidiary Saare Kala Tootmine OÜ to Latvian fish processor Brīvais Vilnis, following a shareholder vote conducted without convening a general meeting. The transaction forms part of PRFoods’ ongoing balance-sheet restructuring process launched in 2024.
Core facts
• The deal covers 100% of the shares in Saare Kala Tootmine OÜ.
• The agreed transaction price is EUR 2 million for the shares and related shareholder loan claims.
• Claims arising from an inventory loan are transferred separately at nominal value.
• As part of the transaction, Saare Kala Tootmine is removed from PRFoods’ senior loan agreement, simplifying the group’s financing structure.
• The sale was approved by shareholders with 64.72% of votes in favour.
Financial and corporate impact
PRFoods has disclosed that the transaction will result in a one-off positive effect at the consolidated group level, while the parent company’s standalone financial statements will reflect a loss related to the revaluation of the disposed asset. No dividends were declared, as the company has allocated its latest annual profit to covering losses from previous periods.
The shareholder vote also approved:
• the company’s annual report for the 2024/2025 financial year,
• the appointment of KPMG Baltics as auditor for 2025/2026,
• and the extension of the mandates of Supervisory Board members.
Why PRFoods is selling assets
PRFoods expanded internationally in the late 2010s through debt-financed acquisitions, a growth model that was widely used in the sector at the time. The COVID-19 pandemic subsequently led to a sharp decline in cash flows in premium food and HoReCa markets, while fixed debt obligations remained in place. This was followed by a period of elevated energy and input costs in Europe, which weakened the economics of energy-intensive fish processing in the Baltic region.
In response, PRFoods initiated a structured debt restructuring process in 2024, shifting its focus from expansion to balance-sheet stabilisation and simplification of the group structure. Within this framework, asset disposals are used as financial instruments rather than strategic exits. The sale of Saare Kala Tootmine allows PRFoods to reduce liabilities, streamline its corporate structure, and concentrate on managing its remaining operations during the restructuring phase.
Baltic context
For the Baltic fish processing sector, the transaction reflects an ongoing reallocation of assets within the region, with Latvian producers strengthening their industrial base while some Estonian groups reassess production footprints amid changing cost conditions. The deal underscores how financial restructuring decisions at group level can directly reshape the regional industrial map, even without broader consolidation waves or market exits.
BDW © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
#BalticEconomy #FoodIndustry #FishProcessing #CorporateRestructuring #Latvia #Estonia #NasdaqTallinn
PRFoods has approved the sale of its Estonian subsidiary Saare Kala Tootmine OÜ to Latvian fish processor Brīvais Vilnis, following a shareholder vote conducted without convening a general meeting. The transaction forms part of PRFoods’ ongoing balance-sheet restructuring process launched in 2024.
Core facts
• The deal covers 100% of the shares in Saare Kala Tootmine OÜ.
• The agreed transaction price is EUR 2 million for the shares and related shareholder loan claims.
• Claims arising from an inventory loan are transferred separately at nominal value.
• As part of the transaction, Saare Kala Tootmine is removed from PRFoods’ senior loan agreement, simplifying the group’s financing structure.
• The sale was approved by shareholders with 64.72% of votes in favour.
Financial and corporate impact
PRFoods has disclosed that the transaction will result in a one-off positive effect at the consolidated group level, while the parent company’s standalone financial statements will reflect a loss related to the revaluation of the disposed asset. No dividends were declared, as the company has allocated its latest annual profit to covering losses from previous periods.
The shareholder vote also approved:
• the company’s annual report for the 2024/2025 financial year,
• the appointment of KPMG Baltics as auditor for 2025/2026,
• and the extension of the mandates of Supervisory Board members.
Why PRFoods is selling assets
PRFoods expanded internationally in the late 2010s through debt-financed acquisitions, a growth model that was widely used in the sector at the time. The COVID-19 pandemic subsequently led to a sharp decline in cash flows in premium food and HoReCa markets, while fixed debt obligations remained in place. This was followed by a period of elevated energy and input costs in Europe, which weakened the economics of energy-intensive fish processing in the Baltic region.
In response, PRFoods initiated a structured debt restructuring process in 2024, shifting its focus from expansion to balance-sheet stabilisation and simplification of the group structure. Within this framework, asset disposals are used as financial instruments rather than strategic exits. The sale of Saare Kala Tootmine allows PRFoods to reduce liabilities, streamline its corporate structure, and concentrate on managing its remaining operations during the restructuring phase.
Baltic context
For the Baltic fish processing sector, the transaction reflects an ongoing reallocation of assets within the region, with Latvian producers strengthening their industrial base while some Estonian groups reassess production footprints amid changing cost conditions. The deal underscores how financial restructuring decisions at group level can directly reshape the regional industrial map, even without broader consolidation waves or market exits.
BDW © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
#BalticEconomy #FoodIndustry #FishProcessing #CorporateRestructuring #Latvia #Estonia #NasdaqTallinn
🇪🇪 Estonia: Dwelling Price Index edged down in Q3
Statistics Estonia reports that the dwelling price index fell by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2025 compared with Q2.
At the same time, prices were still 5.2% higher year-on-year (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024).
Core figures
Apartments: +5.5% year-on-year
Houses: +4.7% year-on-year
Quarter-on-quarter:
Apartments: +0.3%
Houses: −2.9%
According to Märt Umbleja, this was the first quarterly decline since Q4 2024. Apartment prices in Tallinn rose by 1.7%, while prices fell elsewhere in Estonia.
Market structure
More transactions in existing dwellings
Fewer purchases of new developments
The monetary volume of transactions:
higher than in Q3 2024;
roughly unchanged compared with Q2 2025.
In practical terms, households showed a preference for already-occupied apartments and houses, rather than new builds.
Additional indicator
Owner-occupied housing price index:
+0.6% quarter-on-quarter;
+3.1% year-on-year.
This index covers not only dwelling acquisition but also related services, major repairs, maintenance, and housing insurance.
Context (Baltic Focus)
This release reflects a short-term price adjustment within a still positive annual trend.
It provides a numerical snapshot of housing market conditions, used by the Ministry of Finance for macroeconomic monitoring.
No signals of disruption — just parameters for understanding how the market is moving. BSM © 2025 #Estonia #HousingMarket #DwellingPriceIndex #RealEstate #Statistics #BalticFocus
Statistics Estonia reports that the dwelling price index fell by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2025 compared with Q2.
At the same time, prices were still 5.2% higher year-on-year (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024).
Core figures
Apartments: +5.5% year-on-year
Houses: +4.7% year-on-year
Quarter-on-quarter:
Apartments: +0.3%
Houses: −2.9%
According to Märt Umbleja, this was the first quarterly decline since Q4 2024. Apartment prices in Tallinn rose by 1.7%, while prices fell elsewhere in Estonia.
Market structure
More transactions in existing dwellings
Fewer purchases of new developments
The monetary volume of transactions:
higher than in Q3 2024;
roughly unchanged compared with Q2 2025.
In practical terms, households showed a preference for already-occupied apartments and houses, rather than new builds.
Additional indicator
Owner-occupied housing price index:
+0.6% quarter-on-quarter;
+3.1% year-on-year.
This index covers not only dwelling acquisition but also related services, major repairs, maintenance, and housing insurance.
Context (Baltic Focus)
This release reflects a short-term price adjustment within a still positive annual trend.
It provides a numerical snapshot of housing market conditions, used by the Ministry of Finance for macroeconomic monitoring.
No signals of disruption — just parameters for understanding how the market is moving. BSM © 2025 #Estonia #HousingMarket #DwellingPriceIndex #RealEstate #Statistics #BalticFocus
BalticFocus.org
BSM © 2025
Latvia: Household Income and Inequality — Key Statistics (CSP)
In 2024, Latvia recorded continued growth in household disposable income, while income distribution remained highly uneven. According to official statistics, only one fifth of households reached income levels above €2,000 per person per month, while the lowest-income quintile lived on amounts far below the nationally defined poverty risk threshold.
1. Disposable household income (net)
• Average disposable income:
€950 per person per month
(+12.0% or +€102 compared to 2023)
• Income range:
◦ Lowest-income households: €317
◦ Highest-income households: €2,084
2. Income distribution by quintiles (€/person/month)
• 1st quintile (lowest 20%): €317
• 2nd quintile: €569
• 3rd quintile: €781
• 4th quintile: €1,094
• 5th quintile (highest 20%): €2,084
• Quintile ratio (S80/S20): 6.7
(2023: 6.3)
3. Share of households by income level
• 80% of households have disposable income below €2,084 per person per month
• 20% of households are below €317 per person per month
4. Poverty risk threshold
• Single-person household: €699 per month
• Two adults + two children (<14): €1,468 per month
➡️ Income of the lowest quintile (€317) is less than half of the poverty risk threshold for a single person.
5. Population at risk of poverty
• Total population at risk: 404,000 persons
• Share of population: 22.0%
6. Regional disposable income levels (€/person/month)
• Rīga region: €1,135
◦ City of Rīga: €1,090
• Zemgale: €866
• Kurzeme: €816
• Vidzeme: €800
• Latgale: €673
Source: Centrālā statistikas pārvalde (CSP)
BSM © 2025 #Latvia #HouseholdIncome #IncomeDistribution #IncomeInequality
In 2024, Latvia recorded continued growth in household disposable income, while income distribution remained highly uneven. According to official statistics, only one fifth of households reached income levels above €2,000 per person per month, while the lowest-income quintile lived on amounts far below the nationally defined poverty risk threshold.
1. Disposable household income (net)
• Average disposable income:
€950 per person per month
(+12.0% or +€102 compared to 2023)
• Income range:
◦ Lowest-income households: €317
◦ Highest-income households: €2,084
2. Income distribution by quintiles (€/person/month)
• 1st quintile (lowest 20%): €317
• 2nd quintile: €569
• 3rd quintile: €781
• 4th quintile: €1,094
• 5th quintile (highest 20%): €2,084
• Quintile ratio (S80/S20): 6.7
(2023: 6.3)
3. Share of households by income level
• 80% of households have disposable income below €2,084 per person per month
• 20% of households are below €317 per person per month
4. Poverty risk threshold
• Single-person household: €699 per month
• Two adults + two children (<14): €1,468 per month
➡️ Income of the lowest quintile (€317) is less than half of the poverty risk threshold for a single person.
5. Population at risk of poverty
• Total population at risk: 404,000 persons
• Share of population: 22.0%
6. Regional disposable income levels (€/person/month)
• Rīga region: €1,135
◦ City of Rīga: €1,090
• Zemgale: €866
• Kurzeme: €816
• Vidzeme: €800
• Latgale: €673
Source: Centrālā statistikas pārvalde (CSP)
BSM © 2025 #Latvia #HouseholdIncome #IncomeDistribution #IncomeInequality
🇪🇪 Estonia in 2025
A country that quietly impresses — in numbers
Based on official data published by Statistics Estonia
1️⃣ A nation that doesn’t shout — it measures
In 2025, Statistics Estonia managed and updated more than 3,500 statistical indicators.
That means daily life was tracked not in slogans, but in facts — from mobility and work to reading habits and digital behaviour.
There is something genuinely impressive about a country that chooses measurement over noise.
2️⃣ Small population, big statistical clarity
At the beginning of 2025, Estonia’s population stood at about 1.37 million people.
In a country this size:
one percentage point equals around 13,700 people;
trends are visible fast;
numbers rarely lie.
Statistics here feel personal — because they are.
3️⃣ Reading is not symbolic — it is measurable
Library data show millions of book loans per year, with some of the most active readers living outside Tallinn.
In several regions, borrowing rates per capita exceed those of the capital.
A quiet but powerful signal: reading in Estonia is a habit, not a campaign.
4️⃣ A small country constantly on the move
Tallinn Airport handled nearly 3.5 million passengers, marking a double-digit annual increase.
For a country of 1.37 million people, that number says a lot:
Estonians travel;
visitors arrive;
borders feel open, not distant.
Mobility is part of everyday life.
5️⃣ Artificial intelligence, adopted calmly and early
Official surveys show that around 45–50% of residents have already used AI tools — for work, studies, searching for information or creating content.
No panic.
No hype cycle.
Just quiet, practical adoption — exactly how Estonia embraced e-banking and e-government years ago.
6️⃣ Demography, seen without illusions
In 2025:
fewer children were born than a decade ago;
life expectancy approached 80 years;
the median age continued to rise.
The numbers don’t dramatise this.
They simply confirm a society that looks at its future without denial.
7️⃣ Even names tell a statistical story
Population data show tens of thousands of residents now have double or compound first names.
It’s a small detail — but a revealing one.
Estonia is increasingly comfortable with complexity and individuality, even in something as personal as names.
8️⃣ An economy without fireworks — but with discipline
In 2025:
average wages grew by around 5–6%;
the number of job vacancies declined by more than 5% year-on-year;
inflation remained noticeable, but far from chaotic.
No miracle growth.
No collapse either.
Just an economy adjusting to reality.
9️⃣ Migration as a normal process
Statistics record both emigration and immigration — tens of thousands of movements per year in total.
There is no single dramatic wave.
Migration appears as a structural feature, not a crisis headline.
🔟 What all these numbers say together
If statistics could speak, they might say:
“I am small, digital, mobile, reading, ageing — and unusually honest about who I am.”
Estonia in 2025 doesn’t try to impress.
And somehow, that’s exactly what it does. BSM © 2026 #Estonia
#BalticRegion #Statistics #Data #Facts
A country that quietly impresses — in numbers
Based on official data published by Statistics Estonia
1️⃣ A nation that doesn’t shout — it measures
In 2025, Statistics Estonia managed and updated more than 3,500 statistical indicators.
That means daily life was tracked not in slogans, but in facts — from mobility and work to reading habits and digital behaviour.
There is something genuinely impressive about a country that chooses measurement over noise.
2️⃣ Small population, big statistical clarity
At the beginning of 2025, Estonia’s population stood at about 1.37 million people.
In a country this size:
one percentage point equals around 13,700 people;
trends are visible fast;
numbers rarely lie.
Statistics here feel personal — because they are.
3️⃣ Reading is not symbolic — it is measurable
Library data show millions of book loans per year, with some of the most active readers living outside Tallinn.
In several regions, borrowing rates per capita exceed those of the capital.
A quiet but powerful signal: reading in Estonia is a habit, not a campaign.
4️⃣ A small country constantly on the move
Tallinn Airport handled nearly 3.5 million passengers, marking a double-digit annual increase.
For a country of 1.37 million people, that number says a lot:
Estonians travel;
visitors arrive;
borders feel open, not distant.
Mobility is part of everyday life.
5️⃣ Artificial intelligence, adopted calmly and early
Official surveys show that around 45–50% of residents have already used AI tools — for work, studies, searching for information or creating content.
No panic.
No hype cycle.
Just quiet, practical adoption — exactly how Estonia embraced e-banking and e-government years ago.
6️⃣ Demography, seen without illusions
In 2025:
fewer children were born than a decade ago;
life expectancy approached 80 years;
the median age continued to rise.
The numbers don’t dramatise this.
They simply confirm a society that looks at its future without denial.
7️⃣ Even names tell a statistical story
Population data show tens of thousands of residents now have double or compound first names.
It’s a small detail — but a revealing one.
Estonia is increasingly comfortable with complexity and individuality, even in something as personal as names.
8️⃣ An economy without fireworks — but with discipline
In 2025:
average wages grew by around 5–6%;
the number of job vacancies declined by more than 5% year-on-year;
inflation remained noticeable, but far from chaotic.
No miracle growth.
No collapse either.
Just an economy adjusting to reality.
9️⃣ Migration as a normal process
Statistics record both emigration and immigration — tens of thousands of movements per year in total.
There is no single dramatic wave.
Migration appears as a structural feature, not a crisis headline.
🔟 What all these numbers say together
If statistics could speak, they might say:
“I am small, digital, mobile, reading, ageing — and unusually honest about who I am.”
Estonia in 2025 doesn’t try to impress.
And somehow, that’s exactly what it does. BSM © 2026 #Estonia
#BalticRegion #Statistics #Data #Facts
🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹Baltic aviation 2025: when the balance finally shifted
2025 became the year when Baltic aviation changed its hierarchy — quietly, structurally, and irreversibly.
Not because one airport collapsed or another exploded overnight, but because different models were stress-tested under real demand — and delivered different outcomes.
Final passenger traffic, 2025 (official)
🇱🇹Lithuania (system view)
Vilnius Airport: 5.11M, +7% y-o-y
Kaunas Airport: 1.60M, +12%
Palanga Airport: 446K, +20%
➡️ Lithuanian Airports total: 7.15M passengers, +8.5% y-o-y
🇱🇻Latvia
Riga Airport: 7.11M, 0%
Estonia
Tallinn Airport: 3.49M, 0%
➡️ Estonia total: 3.58M, +1%
For the Baltic region, a gap of 40–45 thousand passengers is not marginal.
It equals:
several full European routes per year,
a decisive argument in airline negotiations,
and, most importantly, a shift in perceived market leadership.
For the first time in two decades, Lithuania closed the year as the largest aviation market in the Baltics.
December was not noise — it was a stress test
December is the peak-load month. It exposes structural limits.
What happened in December 2025:
Lithuania: +13% y-o-y, strong acceleration in Vilnius
Riga: –5% y-o-y, despite being a traditional holiday gateway
Tallinn: +9.4% y-o-y, already operating near annual record levels
This matters because:
Lithuania absorbed peak demand without visible friction,
Riga showed signs of pricing and structural saturation,
Tallinn confirmed it can grow independently, not as a feeder.
December did not create the shift.
It revealed it.
The Lithuanian factor everyone keeps missing
Funding connectivity, not a carrier
What truly differentiates Lithuania from its neighbours is not airport size or geography, but the financing philosophy.
Lithuania does not subsidise an airline.
Lithuania subsidises connectivity.
Instead of channeling public funds into sustaining a single national carrier, the state uses its instruments to:
co-finance routes, not companies,
share market-entry risk, not corporate losses,
remain carrier-neutral by design.
Low-cost airlines, legacy carriers, and regional operators all compete on the same field, with support tied to connectivity outcomes, not to political loyalty or ownership.
The guiding question is not
“How do we protect our airline?”
but
“Which routes does the economy need — and who is ready to operate them?”
Why this model scaled in 2025
Lithuania: shared risk, shared upside
Early-stage route risk is partially socialised.
Successful routes remain market-driven.
Airlines can enter, test, expand — or exit — without political escalation.
This produces:
competitive density,
constant network experimentation,
downward pressure on fares,
resilience when one carrier adjusts capacity.
Latvia: concentration risk by design
Latvia’s model remains structurally different:
public resources are effectively tied to one dominant carrier,
connectivity depends on the health of that carrier’s balance sheet,
market entry for competitors is more constrained.
The system is stable — but rigid.
Estonia: stability that no longer feeds the hub
Tallinn’s 2025 result is often misread.
Passenger traffic finished within 0.1% of the all-time record.
Growth is concentrated on point-to-point routes.
The expanding presence of Wizz Air reinforces a low-cost, frequency-driven logic.
The key point:
Tallinn’s stability no longer translates into support for Riga’s hub role.
It stabilises itself, not the region.
Why 2026 will be different — even without shocks
2025 did not yet produce a mass behavioural shift.
But it created the economic preconditions.
If current price structures and route competition persist into summer 2026:
tour operators will begin testing alternative departure geographies,
airline capacity will follow consolidated demand,
hub loyalty will matter less than total package economics.
This is not disruption.
It is rational adaptation.
2025 became the year when Baltic aviation changed its hierarchy — quietly, structurally, and irreversibly.
Not because one airport collapsed or another exploded overnight, but because different models were stress-tested under real demand — and delivered different outcomes.
Final passenger traffic, 2025 (official)
🇱🇹Lithuania (system view)
Vilnius Airport: 5.11M, +7% y-o-y
Kaunas Airport: 1.60M, +12%
Palanga Airport: 446K, +20%
➡️ Lithuanian Airports total: 7.15M passengers, +8.5% y-o-y
🇱🇻Latvia
Riga Airport: 7.11M, 0%
Estonia
Tallinn Airport: 3.49M, 0%
➡️ Estonia total: 3.58M, +1%
For the Baltic region, a gap of 40–45 thousand passengers is not marginal.
It equals:
several full European routes per year,
a decisive argument in airline negotiations,
and, most importantly, a shift in perceived market leadership.
For the first time in two decades, Lithuania closed the year as the largest aviation market in the Baltics.
December was not noise — it was a stress test
December is the peak-load month. It exposes structural limits.
What happened in December 2025:
Lithuania: +13% y-o-y, strong acceleration in Vilnius
Riga: –5% y-o-y, despite being a traditional holiday gateway
Tallinn: +9.4% y-o-y, already operating near annual record levels
This matters because:
Lithuania absorbed peak demand without visible friction,
Riga showed signs of pricing and structural saturation,
Tallinn confirmed it can grow independently, not as a feeder.
December did not create the shift.
It revealed it.
The Lithuanian factor everyone keeps missing
Funding connectivity, not a carrier
What truly differentiates Lithuania from its neighbours is not airport size or geography, but the financing philosophy.
Lithuania does not subsidise an airline.
Lithuania subsidises connectivity.
Instead of channeling public funds into sustaining a single national carrier, the state uses its instruments to:
co-finance routes, not companies,
share market-entry risk, not corporate losses,
remain carrier-neutral by design.
Low-cost airlines, legacy carriers, and regional operators all compete on the same field, with support tied to connectivity outcomes, not to political loyalty or ownership.
The guiding question is not
“How do we protect our airline?”
but
“Which routes does the economy need — and who is ready to operate them?”
Why this model scaled in 2025
Lithuania: shared risk, shared upside
Early-stage route risk is partially socialised.
Successful routes remain market-driven.
Airlines can enter, test, expand — or exit — without political escalation.
This produces:
competitive density,
constant network experimentation,
downward pressure on fares,
resilience when one carrier adjusts capacity.
Latvia: concentration risk by design
Latvia’s model remains structurally different:
public resources are effectively tied to one dominant carrier,
connectivity depends on the health of that carrier’s balance sheet,
market entry for competitors is more constrained.
The system is stable — but rigid.
Estonia: stability that no longer feeds the hub
Tallinn’s 2025 result is often misread.
Passenger traffic finished within 0.1% of the all-time record.
Growth is concentrated on point-to-point routes.
The expanding presence of Wizz Air reinforces a low-cost, frequency-driven logic.
The key point:
Tallinn’s stability no longer translates into support for Riga’s hub role.
It stabilises itself, not the region.
Why 2026 will be different — even without shocks
2025 did not yet produce a mass behavioural shift.
But it created the economic preconditions.
If current price structures and route competition persist into summer 2026:
tour operators will begin testing alternative departure geographies,
airline capacity will follow consolidated demand,
hub loyalty will matter less than total package economics.
This is not disruption.
It is rational adaptation.
Lithuania did not win 2025 by accident.
It won by replacing airline-centric policy with connectivity-centric financing.
Riga did not lose relevance — but it lost inevitability.
And once inevitability disappears, the aviation map stops being static.
2026 will not be about drama.
It will be about which model adapts faster.BSM © 2026 #BalticAviation #AviationMarket #Transport #2026Outlook
It won by replacing airline-centric policy with connectivity-centric financing.
Riga did not lose relevance — but it lost inevitability.
And once inevitability disappears, the aviation map stops being static.
2026 will not be about drama.
It will be about which model adapts faster.BSM © 2026 #BalticAviation #AviationMarket #Transport #2026Outlook
Baltic States: Retail Trade Turnover, January–November 2025
🇱🇻 Latvia
Retail trade turnover: growth of around 3–4% year on year.
Structure:
Food retail – marginal growth.
Non-food retail – main contributor to overall increase.
Automotive fuel retail – positive year-on-year growth, supporting the aggregate.
Summary: Latvia shows balanced growth, with no single segment dominating excessively.
🇱🇹 Lithuania
Retail trade turnover: +3.6% year on year.
Retail trade excluding automotive fuel: +6.8% year on year.
Structure:
Non-food retail – strong, double-digit growth over 11 months.
E-commerce – fastest growing segment.
Automotive fuel retail – −7.1% year on year (January–November).
Summary: Overall growth is driven outside the fuel segment, which continues to weigh on the aggregate.
🇪🇪 Estonia
Retail trade turnover: +2% year on year (January–November).
November year on year: 0% (no change).
Structure:
Grocery stores – decline.
Manufactured goods – weak performance.
Automotive fuel retail – +13% year on year, the strongest segment.
Summary: Aggregate growth is the weakest in the Baltics and is largely supported by fuel sales amid pressure in most other categories.
Baltic snapshot (11 months, constant prices)
Overall performance:
Lithuania – fastest growth,
Latvia – steady mid-range growth,
Estonia – slowest growth, close to stagnation.
Automotive fuel:
Latvia – growth,
Lithuania – decline,
Estonia – strong growth.
Non-food retail:
Lithuania – key growth engine,
Latvia – supportive,
Estonia – under pressure.
Methodological note
Differences in the treatment of e-commerce and enterprise classification apply across countries.
Comparisons reflect direction and structure of change, not absolute levels. BSM © 2026 #BalticFocus #Baltics #RetailTrade #BusinessStatistics #EconomicData
🇱🇻 Latvia
Retail trade turnover: growth of around 3–4% year on year.
Structure:
Food retail – marginal growth.
Non-food retail – main contributor to overall increase.
Automotive fuel retail – positive year-on-year growth, supporting the aggregate.
Summary: Latvia shows balanced growth, with no single segment dominating excessively.
🇱🇹 Lithuania
Retail trade turnover: +3.6% year on year.
Retail trade excluding automotive fuel: +6.8% year on year.
Structure:
Non-food retail – strong, double-digit growth over 11 months.
E-commerce – fastest growing segment.
Automotive fuel retail – −7.1% year on year (January–November).
Summary: Overall growth is driven outside the fuel segment, which continues to weigh on the aggregate.
🇪🇪 Estonia
Retail trade turnover: +2% year on year (January–November).
November year on year: 0% (no change).
Structure:
Grocery stores – decline.
Manufactured goods – weak performance.
Automotive fuel retail – +13% year on year, the strongest segment.
Summary: Aggregate growth is the weakest in the Baltics and is largely supported by fuel sales amid pressure in most other categories.
Baltic snapshot (11 months, constant prices)
Overall performance:
Lithuania – fastest growth,
Latvia – steady mid-range growth,
Estonia – slowest growth, close to stagnation.
Automotive fuel:
Latvia – growth,
Lithuania – decline,
Estonia – strong growth.
Non-food retail:
Lithuania – key growth engine,
Latvia – supportive,
Estonia – under pressure.
Methodological note
Differences in the treatment of e-commerce and enterprise classification apply across countries.
Comparisons reflect direction and structure of change, not absolute levels. BSM © 2026 #BalticFocus #Baltics #RetailTrade #BusinessStatistics #EconomicData
Latvia updates its regulatory model for direct power lines
As of 1 January 2026, permits for direct electricity lines (private lines connecting a generator directly to a consumer) are issued by Valsts vides dienests (VVD). Previously, this function was handled by the public utilities regulator.
The change follows the new Energy Market Law and an institutional reform under which the Energy and Environment Agency was integrated into VVD in late 2025. As a result, environmental, permitting and selected energy-related functions are now consolidated within one authority.
For investors, direct power lines are a key instrument for energy-intensive projects such as industry, data centres and renewable energy developments, offering more predictable pricing and reduced reliance on congested grids. Centralisation may streamline administrative procedures and simplify project coordination.
At the same time, the new model raises practical questions that will be clarified through implementation, including how system-level grid impacts are assessed, how cooperation with transmission and distribution operators is organised, and how responsibility is allocated in non-standard or emergency situations.
The first permits issued under the new framework in 2026 will be an important indicator of how these questions are addressed in practice. BSM © 2026 #Latvia
#Energy #PowerGrid #Electricity #EnergyPolicy
As of 1 January 2026, permits for direct electricity lines (private lines connecting a generator directly to a consumer) are issued by Valsts vides dienests (VVD). Previously, this function was handled by the public utilities regulator.
The change follows the new Energy Market Law and an institutional reform under which the Energy and Environment Agency was integrated into VVD in late 2025. As a result, environmental, permitting and selected energy-related functions are now consolidated within one authority.
For investors, direct power lines are a key instrument for energy-intensive projects such as industry, data centres and renewable energy developments, offering more predictable pricing and reduced reliance on congested grids. Centralisation may streamline administrative procedures and simplify project coordination.
At the same time, the new model raises practical questions that will be clarified through implementation, including how system-level grid impacts are assessed, how cooperation with transmission and distribution operators is organised, and how responsibility is allocated in non-standard or emergency situations.
The first permits issued under the new framework in 2026 will be an important indicator of how these questions are addressed in practice. BSM © 2026 #Latvia
#Energy #PowerGrid #Electricity #EnergyPolicy