🇱🇻 Ports | Competition
Stena Line consolidates ferry operations in Liepāja
Latvia’s Competition Council (KP) has approved AS Stena Line Ports Ventspils acquiring decisive control over Liepāja SEZ port operator TERRABALT.
Why this matters:
Stena Line is currently Latvia’s only remaining regular Ro-Pax ferry operator, running services on the Liepāja–Travemünde (Germany) and Ventspils–Nynäshamn (Sweden) routes. TERRABALT operates the Ro-Ro / Ro-Pax terminal infrastructure in Liepāja that serves these ferry operations.
As a result, the transaction effectively concentrates ferry traffic and terminal infrastructure in Liepāja under Stena Line, explaining regulatory attention despite the limited size of the asset.
According to KP, the merger does not alter market structure, reduce competition or create dominance in any relevant Latvian market and was therefore approved without conditions.#BalticFocus
#Ports
#Competition
Stena Line consolidates ferry operations in Liepāja
Latvia’s Competition Council (KP) has approved AS Stena Line Ports Ventspils acquiring decisive control over Liepāja SEZ port operator TERRABALT.
Why this matters:
Stena Line is currently Latvia’s only remaining regular Ro-Pax ferry operator, running services on the Liepāja–Travemünde (Germany) and Ventspils–Nynäshamn (Sweden) routes. TERRABALT operates the Ro-Ro / Ro-Pax terminal infrastructure in Liepāja that serves these ferry operations.
As a result, the transaction effectively concentrates ferry traffic and terminal infrastructure in Liepāja under Stena Line, explaining regulatory attention despite the limited size of the asset.
According to KP, the merger does not alter market structure, reduce competition or create dominance in any relevant Latvian market and was therefore approved without conditions.#BalticFocus
#Ports
#Competition
🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪 Baltic Grocery Index — mid-December price snapshot
(10 essential products, baseline prices)
🇱🇻 LATVIA
Milk 1L — 0.75
Bread 300g — 0.39
Eggs (10) — 2.19
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.99
Pork shoulder 1kg — 5.69
Potatoes 1kg — 0.19
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.99
Rice 800g — 1.19
Sugar 1kg — 0.75
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA
Milk 1L — 0.65
Bread 300g — 0.34
Eggs (10) — 2.15
Chicken fillet 1kg — 7.29
Pork shoulder 1kg — 5.49
Potatoes 1kg — 0.49
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.54
Rice 800g — 0.95
Sugar 1kg — 0.89
🇪🇪 ESTONIA
Milk 1L — 0.59
Bread 300g — 0.43
Eggs (10) — 1.69–2.39
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.58
Pork shoulder 1kg — 9.29
Potatoes 1kg — 0.39
Carrots 1kg — 0.45
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.59–1.79
Rice 800g — 0.39–0.49
Sugar 1kg — 0.59
📌 Prices observed at Rimi and Maxima/Barbora. Non-promotional baselines used where available. Imported protein lines monitored separately.
Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
(10 essential products, baseline prices)
🇱🇻 LATVIA
Milk 1L — 0.75
Bread 300g — 0.39
Eggs (10) — 2.19
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.99
Pork shoulder 1kg — 5.69
Potatoes 1kg — 0.19
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.99
Rice 800g — 1.19
Sugar 1kg — 0.75
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA
Milk 1L — 0.65
Bread 300g — 0.34
Eggs (10) — 2.15
Chicken fillet 1kg — 7.29
Pork shoulder 1kg — 5.49
Potatoes 1kg — 0.49
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.54
Rice 800g — 0.95
Sugar 1kg — 0.89
🇪🇪 ESTONIA
Milk 1L — 0.59
Bread 300g — 0.43
Eggs (10) — 1.69–2.39
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.58
Pork shoulder 1kg — 9.29
Potatoes 1kg — 0.39
Carrots 1kg — 0.45
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.59–1.79
Rice 800g — 0.39–0.49
Sugar 1kg — 0.59
📌 Prices observed at Rimi and Maxima/Barbora. Non-promotional baselines used where available. Imported protein lines monitored separately.
Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪 Baltic Grocery Index — current week (mid-December snapshot)
Latvia — stable
Prices remain largely unchanged across the basket. Earlier meat price easing has already been absorbed, while eggs sit at the lower end of the normal range. Vegetables and staples show no new movement. Latvia continues to act as a stability anchor in the region.
Lithuania — low but uneven
Lithuania keeps one of the lowest overall baskets, supported by competitive protein prices. At the same time, availability issues persist in some basic SKUs, forcing occasional shifts to higher-priced packaged alternatives. The basket remains cheap, but composition matters.
Estonia — volatile, but easing
After last week’s increase driven by pork and eggs, prices are now showing signs of normalization. Eggs and poultry are cheaper again, while vegetables, milk and rice stay at the lowest regional levels. Local pork remains expensive, though imported alternatives appear regularly and are being monitored separately.
Baltic trend:
This week shows consolidation rather than direction. Latvia stays balanced, Lithuania remains structurally cheap with assortment effects, and Estonia continues to display the strongest price volatility in protein categories. Rice and milk still mark the widest structural gap between Estonia and its neighbors.
Analytical conclusions and seasonal assessment will be made after 19 December.Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
Latvia — stable
Prices remain largely unchanged across the basket. Earlier meat price easing has already been absorbed, while eggs sit at the lower end of the normal range. Vegetables and staples show no new movement. Latvia continues to act as a stability anchor in the region.
Lithuania — low but uneven
Lithuania keeps one of the lowest overall baskets, supported by competitive protein prices. At the same time, availability issues persist in some basic SKUs, forcing occasional shifts to higher-priced packaged alternatives. The basket remains cheap, but composition matters.
Estonia — volatile, but easing
After last week’s increase driven by pork and eggs, prices are now showing signs of normalization. Eggs and poultry are cheaper again, while vegetables, milk and rice stay at the lowest regional levels. Local pork remains expensive, though imported alternatives appear regularly and are being monitored separately.
Baltic trend:
This week shows consolidation rather than direction. Latvia stays balanced, Lithuania remains structurally cheap with assortment effects, and Estonia continues to display the strongest price volatility in protein categories. Rice and milk still mark the widest structural gap between Estonia and its neighbors.
Analytical conclusions and seasonal assessment will be made after 19 December.Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
📰 💶 Estonia faces costs if EU freezes Russian assets indefinitely
The European Council is expected to vote next week on converting the current six-month freeze of Russian assets in the EU into an indefinite regime. The move would allow the EU to use the frozen assets as collateral for a long-term loan to Ukraine, estimated at €100–150bn, backed by around €210bn in immobilised Russian funds.
According to European Parliament member Jaak Madison, if the assets are not ultimately confiscated, EU member states would have to repay the loan from their own budgets. He estimates Estonia’s potential share at €400–450m in a favourable scenario and up to €1bn in a negative one. Madison added that Russia holds far fewer European assets that could be seized in response, with estimates ranging from €20–30bn.
Another Estonian MEP, Riho Terras, said the decision would test Europe’s ability to act as an independent geopolitical actor. He noted that the outcome would largely depend on Germany’s position. Hungary and Slovakia have signalled opposition, while Belgium and Italy have raised legal concerns. Approval requires the support of at least two-thirds of EU member states.
Context:
Since 2022, the EU has frozen Russian state assets under sanctions, renewing the measure every six months due to legal constraints. Making the freeze indefinite would remove renewal risks and enable long-term financial planning for Ukraine, but would also shift part of the financial risk to EU budgets, including smaller member states such as Estonia. The vote reflects a broader EU debate on burden-sharing, legal exposure and the use of sanctioned assets in prolonged conflicts.
#BalticFocus #Estonia #EU #RussiaSanctions #Ukraine #PublicFinance
The European Council is expected to vote next week on converting the current six-month freeze of Russian assets in the EU into an indefinite regime. The move would allow the EU to use the frozen assets as collateral for a long-term loan to Ukraine, estimated at €100–150bn, backed by around €210bn in immobilised Russian funds.
According to European Parliament member Jaak Madison, if the assets are not ultimately confiscated, EU member states would have to repay the loan from their own budgets. He estimates Estonia’s potential share at €400–450m in a favourable scenario and up to €1bn in a negative one. Madison added that Russia holds far fewer European assets that could be seized in response, with estimates ranging from €20–30bn.
Another Estonian MEP, Riho Terras, said the decision would test Europe’s ability to act as an independent geopolitical actor. He noted that the outcome would largely depend on Germany’s position. Hungary and Slovakia have signalled opposition, while Belgium and Italy have raised legal concerns. Approval requires the support of at least two-thirds of EU member states.
Context:
Since 2022, the EU has frozen Russian state assets under sanctions, renewing the measure every six months due to legal constraints. Making the freeze indefinite would remove renewal risks and enable long-term financial planning for Ukraine, but would also shift part of the financial risk to EU budgets, including smaller member states such as Estonia. The vote reflects a broader EU debate on burden-sharing, legal exposure and the use of sanctioned assets in prolonged conflicts.
#BalticFocus #Estonia #EU #RussiaSanctions #Ukraine #PublicFinance
✈️ Baltic aviation adds routes as traffic trends diverge
Wizz Air launched several new routes from Vilnius on Friday, adding daily flights to Tallinn, three weekly flights to Turku, and two weekly flights to Nice. Turku is a new destination for Lithuania’s airport network. The airline also repositioned an A321neo from Warsaw to Vilnius and now operates three aircraft based in Vilnius. In parallel, Wizz Air returned to Palanga Airport after a multi-year break, becoming the third airline operating from each airport in Lithuania.
At the same time, flydubai launched its first-ever direct flight to Vilnius, while Riga Airport confirmed the start of three weekly flydubai flights between Riga and Dubai. Looking ahead to next summer, Ryanair plans to increase frequency on the Vilnius–Athens route to four weekly flights in Summer 2026, following strong demand and a reported 95% load factor in the 2025 summer season. Aegean Airlines also operates on the route during summer.
Passenger traffic data for November shows uneven dynamics across the Baltic states. Airports in Lithuania handled a combined 526,000 passengers, up 8% year-on-year, led by Vilnius with 379,000 passengers (+11%), followed by Kaunas with 111,000 (-1%) and Palanga with 36,000 (+8%). Tallinn Airport recorded 261,000 passengers (+5%), while Riga Airport handled 541,000 passengers, down 2% compared with the same month last year.
Context:
Airline network expansion in the Baltics reflects diverging strategies among carriers and airports. Vilnius is strengthening its position as a regional growth hub for low-cost and hybrid airlines, while new long-haul connections via Dubai signal efforts to improve global connectivity. At the same time, mixed passenger trends highlight differences in recovery speed and route mix between Baltic capitals, with winter performance and summer 2026 capacity plans set to shape competition in the region.
#BalticFocus #BalticAviation #Airports #Lithuania #Latvia #Estonia
Wizz Air launched several new routes from Vilnius on Friday, adding daily flights to Tallinn, three weekly flights to Turku, and two weekly flights to Nice. Turku is a new destination for Lithuania’s airport network. The airline also repositioned an A321neo from Warsaw to Vilnius and now operates three aircraft based in Vilnius. In parallel, Wizz Air returned to Palanga Airport after a multi-year break, becoming the third airline operating from each airport in Lithuania.
At the same time, flydubai launched its first-ever direct flight to Vilnius, while Riga Airport confirmed the start of three weekly flydubai flights between Riga and Dubai. Looking ahead to next summer, Ryanair plans to increase frequency on the Vilnius–Athens route to four weekly flights in Summer 2026, following strong demand and a reported 95% load factor in the 2025 summer season. Aegean Airlines also operates on the route during summer.
Passenger traffic data for November shows uneven dynamics across the Baltic states. Airports in Lithuania handled a combined 526,000 passengers, up 8% year-on-year, led by Vilnius with 379,000 passengers (+11%), followed by Kaunas with 111,000 (-1%) and Palanga with 36,000 (+8%). Tallinn Airport recorded 261,000 passengers (+5%), while Riga Airport handled 541,000 passengers, down 2% compared with the same month last year.
Context:
Airline network expansion in the Baltics reflects diverging strategies among carriers and airports. Vilnius is strengthening its position as a regional growth hub for low-cost and hybrid airlines, while new long-haul connections via Dubai signal efforts to improve global connectivity. At the same time, mixed passenger trends highlight differences in recovery speed and route mix between Baltic capitals, with winter performance and summer 2026 capacity plans set to shape competition in the region.
#BalticFocus #BalticAviation #Airports #Lithuania #Latvia #Estonia
Baltic Focus | Insight
Why inheriting a chicken coop in Latvia may trigger a Bāriņtiesa procedure
A case study on how state mechanisms work in practice
A recent viral post in Latvia describes a situation that appears humorous at first glance: a woman inheriting her late father’s rural property was summoned by Bāriņtiesa (the Orphans’ Court) because the estate included a registered poultry coop.
Behind the anecdote lies a structural issue: how Latvia’s legal and administrative system handles property that temporarily has no legal owner.
Baltic Focus explains the mechanism.
1️⃣ In Latvia, inheritance is a legal status — not automatic ownership
From the moment a person dies, their assets become mantojuma masa — an estate under legal protection.
Until the notary finalises the inheritance case — a process that may last weeks or months, especially when documentation is incomplete or action is delayed —
• no one legally owns the property,
• assets must not deteriorate,
• the state must appoint someone responsible for their care.
This rule applies not only to land or buildings, but also to living creatures kept on the property.
2️⃣ Why poultry activates a formal procedure
In Latvia, farm birds are registered as a novietne — a livestock holding subject to basic welfare and registration requirements.
As a result, poultry is treated as part of an “economic unit” within the estate, which triggers:
• mandatory registration,
• welfare monitoring,
• the need to appoint a temporary caretaker.
Domestic pets such as dogs or cats usually do not activate the same procedure — a regulatory asymmetry built into the system, rather than a case-by-case decision.
3️⃣ Why Bāriņtiesa becomes involved
Although Bāriņtiesa is primarily associated with child protection, Latvian law assigns it an additional role:
oversight of property that temporarily has no legal owner (aizgādība pār mantu).
If an estate includes animals requiring daily care, Bāriņtiesa must:
• evaluate conditions,
• confirm a temporary guardian,
• request written reports,
• issue a final ruling once inheritance rights are formalised.
In practice, Bāriņtiesa acts not as an enforcement body but as a procedural safeguard, stepping in automatically when ownership is legally undefined — even in the absence of conflict, neglect or dispute.
These steps are not discretionary; they are mandated by the legal structure.
4️⃣ Why this matters for residents
Inheritance procedures apply uniformly to all residents of Latvia.
Any delay, misunderstanding of legal status or assumption that “nothing needs to be done yet” can activate formal oversight mechanisms — even in routine, non-conflict situations.
Rural properties, small holdings and animals kept for personal use are particularly likely to trigger such procedures, as sector-specific regulations operate independently of inheritance law.
5️⃣ What the case reveals about the system
1. Expanded mandate
Bāriņtiesa handles responsibilities far beyond its original child-protection remit, increasing administrative load and institutional stretch.
2. Regulatory inconsistency
Livestock receives structured procedural protection, while domestic pets may fall outside comparable oversight when owners die — a gap with practical consequences.
3. High transactional cost for citizens
The cost is primarily procedural rather than financial: time, reporting obligations and administrative attention, even when no dispute exists.
Why inheriting a chicken coop in Latvia may trigger a Bāriņtiesa procedure
A case study on how state mechanisms work in practice
A recent viral post in Latvia describes a situation that appears humorous at first glance: a woman inheriting her late father’s rural property was summoned by Bāriņtiesa (the Orphans’ Court) because the estate included a registered poultry coop.
Behind the anecdote lies a structural issue: how Latvia’s legal and administrative system handles property that temporarily has no legal owner.
Baltic Focus explains the mechanism.
1️⃣ In Latvia, inheritance is a legal status — not automatic ownership
From the moment a person dies, their assets become mantojuma masa — an estate under legal protection.
Until the notary finalises the inheritance case — a process that may last weeks or months, especially when documentation is incomplete or action is delayed —
• no one legally owns the property,
• assets must not deteriorate,
• the state must appoint someone responsible for their care.
This rule applies not only to land or buildings, but also to living creatures kept on the property.
2️⃣ Why poultry activates a formal procedure
In Latvia, farm birds are registered as a novietne — a livestock holding subject to basic welfare and registration requirements.
As a result, poultry is treated as part of an “economic unit” within the estate, which triggers:
• mandatory registration,
• welfare monitoring,
• the need to appoint a temporary caretaker.
Domestic pets such as dogs or cats usually do not activate the same procedure — a regulatory asymmetry built into the system, rather than a case-by-case decision.
3️⃣ Why Bāriņtiesa becomes involved
Although Bāriņtiesa is primarily associated with child protection, Latvian law assigns it an additional role:
oversight of property that temporarily has no legal owner (aizgādība pār mantu).
If an estate includes animals requiring daily care, Bāriņtiesa must:
• evaluate conditions,
• confirm a temporary guardian,
• request written reports,
• issue a final ruling once inheritance rights are formalised.
In practice, Bāriņtiesa acts not as an enforcement body but as a procedural safeguard, stepping in automatically when ownership is legally undefined — even in the absence of conflict, neglect or dispute.
These steps are not discretionary; they are mandated by the legal structure.
4️⃣ Why this matters for residents
Inheritance procedures apply uniformly to all residents of Latvia.
Any delay, misunderstanding of legal status or assumption that “nothing needs to be done yet” can activate formal oversight mechanisms — even in routine, non-conflict situations.
Rural properties, small holdings and animals kept for personal use are particularly likely to trigger such procedures, as sector-specific regulations operate independently of inheritance law.
5️⃣ What the case reveals about the system
1. Expanded mandate
Bāriņtiesa handles responsibilities far beyond its original child-protection remit, increasing administrative load and institutional stretch.
2. Regulatory inconsistency
Livestock receives structured procedural protection, while domestic pets may fall outside comparable oversight when owners die — a gap with practical consequences.
3. High transactional cost for citizens
The cost is primarily procedural rather than financial: time, reporting obligations and administrative attention, even when no dispute exists.
6️⃣ Why this is relevant for the Baltic region
Beyond the anecdote, the case illustrates how administrative and legal mechanisms function in small EU states, where institutional mandates are broad and sector-specific regulations intersect with everyday legal procedures.
Such cases show how routine legal frameworks may generate unexpected procedural obligations in ordinary inheritance situations, particularly in rural or mixed-use property settings.
The example provides factual material for observing how property law, animal welfare regulation and temporary guardianship mechanisms interact in practice within the Baltic administrative environment.
#BalticFocus
#Latvia
#BalticRegion
#PublicAdministration
#InheritanceLaw
#AdministrativeProcedure
Beyond the anecdote, the case illustrates how administrative and legal mechanisms function in small EU states, where institutional mandates are broad and sector-specific regulations intersect with everyday legal procedures.
Such cases show how routine legal frameworks may generate unexpected procedural obligations in ordinary inheritance situations, particularly in rural or mixed-use property settings.
The example provides factual material for observing how property law, animal welfare regulation and temporary guardianship mechanisms interact in practice within the Baltic administrative environment.
#BalticFocus
#Latvia
#BalticRegion
#PublicAdministration
#InheritanceLaw
#AdministrativeProcedure
Baltic leaders reaffirm 2030 Rail Baltica target as investment plans advance
Estonia’s draft state budget foresees annual Rail Baltica investments of €500–600m through 2030, with most funding coming from EU sources. Rail Baltica Estonia CEO Anvar Salomets said the investment plan is designed to make the railway operational within five years. In 2025 alone, planned investments total €420m, including €235m from the Connecting Europe Facility, €22m from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and €5m in national co-financing. Full commissioning of Estonia’s section is targeted for Q4 2030.
At a recent meeting in Riga, the prime ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia jointly reaffirmed their expectation that Rail Baltica will be completed on schedule, highlighting its importance for connectivity, economic resilience and military mobility. Lithuania reported the most advanced construction progress on the Kaunas–Panevėžys section, where track-laying has already begun, while Latvia acknowledged slower progress but stressed that financing is in place and cost reductions are being pursued.
Context: Estonia and Lithuania continue to publicly align around the 2030 timeline, while Latvia has indicated its section may realistically extend beyond that date. Political commitment across the three states remains intact, even as delivery schedules diverge.
Source: ERR / national ministries
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
Estonia’s draft state budget foresees annual Rail Baltica investments of €500–600m through 2030, with most funding coming from EU sources. Rail Baltica Estonia CEO Anvar Salomets said the investment plan is designed to make the railway operational within five years. In 2025 alone, planned investments total €420m, including €235m from the Connecting Europe Facility, €22m from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and €5m in national co-financing. Full commissioning of Estonia’s section is targeted for Q4 2030.
At a recent meeting in Riga, the prime ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia jointly reaffirmed their expectation that Rail Baltica will be completed on schedule, highlighting its importance for connectivity, economic resilience and military mobility. Lithuania reported the most advanced construction progress on the Kaunas–Panevėžys section, where track-laying has already begun, while Latvia acknowledged slower progress but stressed that financing is in place and cost reductions are being pursued.
Context: Estonia and Lithuania continue to publicly align around the 2030 timeline, while Latvia has indicated its section may realistically extend beyond that date. Political commitment across the three states remains intact, even as delivery schedules diverge.
Source: ERR / national ministries
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
Baltic Shift Map — Weekly Signals (08–14 Dec 2025)
1️⃣ Baltic inflation stabilises, but food remains the structural driver
Inflation in Latvia and Lithuania converged at 3.8%, while Estonia stayed elevated at 4.9%. Despite short-term MoM corrections, food prices continue to anchor inflation expectations across the region. Services inflation remains structurally higher than goods, pointing to persistent cost pressure into 2026.
2️⃣ Labour markets cool in sync, without job losses
Vacancies fell across all three Baltic states (LV –16%, LT –12%, EE –5%), but total employment remained broadly stable. This signals a soft adjustment rather than a downturn, with hiring becoming more selective. The risk shifts from unemployment to widening regional and skills mismatches.
3️⃣ Baltic trade paths diverge as re-exports mask structural slowdown
Latvia posted modest growth, Estonia accelerated via re-exports, while Lithuania entered mild contraction. The gap between goods of domestic origin and re-export volumes is widening, especially in Estonia. This suggests increasing dependence on transit and redistribution rather than domestic industrial expansion.
4️⃣ Hydrogen projects exist, but the market does not
Across the Baltics, hydrogen remains a policy-driven experiment rather than a commercial energy market. Projects are limited to ports, pilots and R&D “valleys,” constrained by high costs, weak electricity surpluses and regulatory uncertainty. Biomethane and electrification continue to outperform hydrogen on economics.
5️⃣ Transport transition accelerates unevenly across the region
Latvia moves toward battery-electric trains, Estonia consolidates a unified modern fleet, and Lithuania remains diesel-heavy on key intercity routes. Cross-border rail connectivity is improving incrementally, but technical and operational fragmentation persists. Mobility decarbonisation is advancing, but via three different national strategies.
6️⃣ Baltic aviation growth shifts south
Vilnius strengthens its role as the regional growth hub, adding routes and capacity, while Riga shows weaker passenger dynamics in November. New long-haul connectivity via Dubai signals changing network priorities. Competition between Baltic capitals is increasingly defined by route mix rather than total traffic.
7️⃣ Market power continues to concentrate in food and logistics
Vertical integration moves in baking, ports and ferry operations highlight a broader consolidation trend. Control is shifting from individual assets to full value chains, from ingredients to distribution infrastructure. This raises competition-policy relevance even in relatively small Baltic markets.
#BalticShiftMap #BalticFocus #BalticEconomy
1️⃣ Baltic inflation stabilises, but food remains the structural driver
Inflation in Latvia and Lithuania converged at 3.8%, while Estonia stayed elevated at 4.9%. Despite short-term MoM corrections, food prices continue to anchor inflation expectations across the region. Services inflation remains structurally higher than goods, pointing to persistent cost pressure into 2026.
2️⃣ Labour markets cool in sync, without job losses
Vacancies fell across all three Baltic states (LV –16%, LT –12%, EE –5%), but total employment remained broadly stable. This signals a soft adjustment rather than a downturn, with hiring becoming more selective. The risk shifts from unemployment to widening regional and skills mismatches.
3️⃣ Baltic trade paths diverge as re-exports mask structural slowdown
Latvia posted modest growth, Estonia accelerated via re-exports, while Lithuania entered mild contraction. The gap between goods of domestic origin and re-export volumes is widening, especially in Estonia. This suggests increasing dependence on transit and redistribution rather than domestic industrial expansion.
4️⃣ Hydrogen projects exist, but the market does not
Across the Baltics, hydrogen remains a policy-driven experiment rather than a commercial energy market. Projects are limited to ports, pilots and R&D “valleys,” constrained by high costs, weak electricity surpluses and regulatory uncertainty. Biomethane and electrification continue to outperform hydrogen on economics.
5️⃣ Transport transition accelerates unevenly across the region
Latvia moves toward battery-electric trains, Estonia consolidates a unified modern fleet, and Lithuania remains diesel-heavy on key intercity routes. Cross-border rail connectivity is improving incrementally, but technical and operational fragmentation persists. Mobility decarbonisation is advancing, but via three different national strategies.
6️⃣ Baltic aviation growth shifts south
Vilnius strengthens its role as the regional growth hub, adding routes and capacity, while Riga shows weaker passenger dynamics in November. New long-haul connectivity via Dubai signals changing network priorities. Competition between Baltic capitals is increasingly defined by route mix rather than total traffic.
7️⃣ Market power continues to concentrate in food and logistics
Vertical integration moves in baking, ports and ferry operations highlight a broader consolidation trend. Control is shifting from individual assets to full value chains, from ingredients to distribution infrastructure. This raises competition-policy relevance even in relatively small Baltic markets.
#BalticShiftMap #BalticFocus #BalticEconomy
Baltic Social Radar — Weekly Organic Discussions
Native-language segments on X | 7–14 December 2025
This snapshot tracks organic, user-generated, text-only discussions in Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian on X. The focus is on everyday narratives rather than media, links or political campaigning.
Key Cross-Baltic Themes
🎄 Pre-Christmas mood and traditions
Holiday preparations dominate lighter conversations: Christmas markets, family recipes, baking, decorations and plans for quiet gatherings. Posts reflect a desire for familiarity and small rituals rather than consumption-driven celebration.
❄️ Winter and everyday strain
Cold weather, icy streets, short daylight and heating bills are frequent topics. Often framed humorously, these posts still signal concern about affordability and winter-related costs.
💶 Cost-of-living pressure (personal framing)
Rising prices for energy, fuel and gifts are discussed through personal coping strategies, not collective protest. The tone is pragmatic rather than mobilising.
🏛 Government spending and priorities
Most visible in the Latvian segment. Strong criticism targets perceived wasteful spending, especially budget-related advertising and bonuses, contrasted with the financial strain on families, pensioners and children. Calls to redirect public funds toward social and charitable needs are common.
🧩 Language and social cohesion
Debates around language, citizenship and integration appear intermittently and are expressed in personal terms. Security-related mentions remain indirect and non-alarmist.
Tone by Language Segment
• Latvian: The most vocal and critical. Political frustration noticeably outweighs festive sentiment.
• Lithuanian: Largely neutral to positive, focused on daily life and seasonal themes.
• Estonian: Calm and ironic, with emphasis on weather, routines and everyday observations.
Typical Reactions (translated sense)
• “Unbelievable stupidity” / “Shameful priorities” — on public spending
• “Everything is too expensive” / “How do people afford winter?”
• “Christmas market season again” / “Cozy winter mood”
• Light humour about cold, darkness and winter fatigue
Russian-language segment (Baltics)
Organic Russian-language text posts remain low in volume. The tone is pragmatic and subdued, centred on heating costs, winter conditions, border travel and neutral mentions of markets or city life. Political or emotional framing is largely absent.
Weekly Signal
Across native-language segments, public mood combines seasonal warmth with economic pressure. Latvia stands out for stronger political frustration, while Lithuania and Estonia remain more culturally and pragmatically focused. Overall, resilience and adaptation dominate over protest or mobilisation.
#BalticSocialRadar #BalticFocus #Baltics
Native-language segments on X | 7–14 December 2025
This snapshot tracks organic, user-generated, text-only discussions in Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian on X. The focus is on everyday narratives rather than media, links or political campaigning.
Key Cross-Baltic Themes
🎄 Pre-Christmas mood and traditions
Holiday preparations dominate lighter conversations: Christmas markets, family recipes, baking, decorations and plans for quiet gatherings. Posts reflect a desire for familiarity and small rituals rather than consumption-driven celebration.
❄️ Winter and everyday strain
Cold weather, icy streets, short daylight and heating bills are frequent topics. Often framed humorously, these posts still signal concern about affordability and winter-related costs.
💶 Cost-of-living pressure (personal framing)
Rising prices for energy, fuel and gifts are discussed through personal coping strategies, not collective protest. The tone is pragmatic rather than mobilising.
🏛 Government spending and priorities
Most visible in the Latvian segment. Strong criticism targets perceived wasteful spending, especially budget-related advertising and bonuses, contrasted with the financial strain on families, pensioners and children. Calls to redirect public funds toward social and charitable needs are common.
🧩 Language and social cohesion
Debates around language, citizenship and integration appear intermittently and are expressed in personal terms. Security-related mentions remain indirect and non-alarmist.
Tone by Language Segment
• Latvian: The most vocal and critical. Political frustration noticeably outweighs festive sentiment.
• Lithuanian: Largely neutral to positive, focused on daily life and seasonal themes.
• Estonian: Calm and ironic, with emphasis on weather, routines and everyday observations.
Typical Reactions (translated sense)
• “Unbelievable stupidity” / “Shameful priorities” — on public spending
• “Everything is too expensive” / “How do people afford winter?”
• “Christmas market season again” / “Cozy winter mood”
• Light humour about cold, darkness and winter fatigue
Russian-language segment (Baltics)
Organic Russian-language text posts remain low in volume. The tone is pragmatic and subdued, centred on heating costs, winter conditions, border travel and neutral mentions of markets or city life. Political or emotional framing is largely absent.
Weekly Signal
Across native-language segments, public mood combines seasonal warmth with economic pressure. Latvia stands out for stronger political frustration, while Lithuania and Estonia remain more culturally and pragmatically focused. Overall, resilience and adaptation dominate over protest or mobilisation.
#BalticSocialRadar #BalticFocus #Baltics
airBaltic passenger traffic up 1.6% in 11 months
Latvia’s national carrier airBaltic carried 4.784 million passengers in the first 11 months of 2025, a 1.6% year-on-year increase, while the number of flights rose 2.5% to 43,683, according to company data. Over the same period, the average seat load factor declined to 80.5%, down 0.8 percentage points from last year.
In November, airBaltic carried 402,400 passengers (+0.5% y/y), the highest November passenger volume in the company’s history. At the same time, flights increased 4.9% to 3,766, while the load factor fell to 78.3%, indicating that capacity expansion outpaced demand during the low-season month.
For the first nine months of 2025, the airBaltic Group reported €594.3m in revenue and €4.25m profit, following €118.2m in audited losses in 2024, despite higher turnover (€747.6m). Alongside passenger operations, the airline continues to expand aircraft leasing, with five aircraft deployed at Swiss International Air Lines (part of the Lufthansa Group), two at Air Serbia, and one aircraft operating with an Israeli carrier. Leasing activities account for roughly one-fifth of group revenues and support fleet utilisation outside the core passenger network.
Context:
The combination of modest passenger growth with declining load factors suggests that recent traffic gains have been driven primarily by capacity and fleet deployment, rather than higher aircraft utilisation within the passenger network alone. Part of the additional passenger flow may reflect stimulated demand through pricing and marketing, particularly outside the peak season. At the same time, leasing aircraft within and alongside the Lufthansa ecosystem has become a structurally embedded element of airBaltic’s business model as the company moves toward a potential IPO, with Lufthansa already a shareholder.
Source: LSM, airBaltic
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
Latvia’s national carrier airBaltic carried 4.784 million passengers in the first 11 months of 2025, a 1.6% year-on-year increase, while the number of flights rose 2.5% to 43,683, according to company data. Over the same period, the average seat load factor declined to 80.5%, down 0.8 percentage points from last year.
In November, airBaltic carried 402,400 passengers (+0.5% y/y), the highest November passenger volume in the company’s history. At the same time, flights increased 4.9% to 3,766, while the load factor fell to 78.3%, indicating that capacity expansion outpaced demand during the low-season month.
For the first nine months of 2025, the airBaltic Group reported €594.3m in revenue and €4.25m profit, following €118.2m in audited losses in 2024, despite higher turnover (€747.6m). Alongside passenger operations, the airline continues to expand aircraft leasing, with five aircraft deployed at Swiss International Air Lines (part of the Lufthansa Group), two at Air Serbia, and one aircraft operating with an Israeli carrier. Leasing activities account for roughly one-fifth of group revenues and support fleet utilisation outside the core passenger network.
Context:
The combination of modest passenger growth with declining load factors suggests that recent traffic gains have been driven primarily by capacity and fleet deployment, rather than higher aircraft utilisation within the passenger network alone. Part of the additional passenger flow may reflect stimulated demand through pricing and marketing, particularly outside the peak season. At the same time, leasing aircraft within and alongside the Lufthansa ecosystem has become a structurally embedded element of airBaltic’s business model as the company moves toward a potential IPO, with Lufthansa already a shareholder.
Source: LSM, airBaltic
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
🇪🇺 Baltic Focus — Signal
SAF Tehnika shareholders approved the company’s 2024/2025 financial results at the annual meeting on 16 December 2025, including the use of retained earnings from previous years to cover losses.
The meeting confirmed the consolidated and separate annual reports, discharged the management board from liability for the period, and approved the remuneration report. No changes to governance or strategy were announced. An external auditor was appointed for the 2025/2026 financial year.
Context:
This decision reflects a broader pattern among Baltic owner-managed hi-tech firms in 2024–2025. Instead of restructuring or leadership changes, companies are absorbing cyclical losses using accumulated capital while waiting for export markets — particularly the US and EU infrastructure segments — to stabilise.
Why it matters:
The case illustrates how small, export-oriented technology manufacturers in the Baltics are navigating the current slowdown: conserving continuity rather than pursuing short-term corrective moves.
Source: Nasdaq Baltic
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
SAF Tehnika shareholders approved the company’s 2024/2025 financial results at the annual meeting on 16 December 2025, including the use of retained earnings from previous years to cover losses.
The meeting confirmed the consolidated and separate annual reports, discharged the management board from liability for the period, and approved the remuneration report. No changes to governance or strategy were announced. An external auditor was appointed for the 2025/2026 financial year.
Context:
This decision reflects a broader pattern among Baltic owner-managed hi-tech firms in 2024–2025. Instead of restructuring or leadership changes, companies are absorbing cyclical losses using accumulated capital while waiting for export markets — particularly the US and EU infrastructure segments — to stabilise.
Why it matters:
The case illustrates how small, export-oriented technology manufacturers in the Baltics are navigating the current slowdown: conserving continuity rather than pursuing short-term corrective moves.
Source: Nasdaq Baltic
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
🇱🇻🇪🇺 Institutional capital enters Baltic agri-food
APF Holdings controlling shareholder Agrova International brought in Accession Capital Partners as a 23% investor via a new share issue.
The investment is made through the Luxembourg-based fund AMC V SCA SICAV-RAIF.
What the capital is for:
• expansion of production capacity in Latvia, including the Alūksne poultry farm
• cross-border M&A, including the UK-based Sunrise Group
• long-term governance, with a newly established supervisory board at Agrova
Signal:
This is a rare example of institutional capital entering Baltic agri-food production, not startups. The focus is on asset-heavy, export-oriented food manufacturing with vertical integration, biogas and circular components.
Context:
While Baltic hi-tech and manufacturing face a weak cycle, institutional investors are selectively backing real-economy food assets with scale and cross-border growth potential.
#BalticFocus #BalticEconomy #AgriFood #CapitalSignals
APF Holdings controlling shareholder Agrova International brought in Accession Capital Partners as a 23% investor via a new share issue.
The investment is made through the Luxembourg-based fund AMC V SCA SICAV-RAIF.
What the capital is for:
• expansion of production capacity in Latvia, including the Alūksne poultry farm
• cross-border M&A, including the UK-based Sunrise Group
• long-term governance, with a newly established supervisory board at Agrova
Signal:
This is a rare example of institutional capital entering Baltic agri-food production, not startups. The focus is on asset-heavy, export-oriented food manufacturing with vertical integration, biogas and circular components.
Context:
While Baltic hi-tech and manufacturing face a weak cycle, institutional investors are selectively backing real-economy food assets with scale and cross-border growth potential.
#BalticFocus #BalticEconomy #AgriFood #CapitalSignals
🇱🇹 Baltic Focus — Signal
Lietuvos kariuomenė publicly denied viral claims about massive Russian troop deployments in Belarus.
The Lithuanian Armed Forces state that no such concentrations exist, Russian conventional capabilities remain tied to Ukraine, and no additional forces are being deployed near NATO borders. The military urged media and the public not to amplify sensational disinformation.
Source: Lithuanian Armed Forces
#BalticFocus #SecuritySignal
Lietuvos kariuomenė publicly denied viral claims about massive Russian troop deployments in Belarus.
The Lithuanian Armed Forces state that no such concentrations exist, Russian conventional capabilities remain tied to Ukraine, and no additional forces are being deployed near NATO borders. The military urged media and the public not to amplify sensational disinformation.
Source: Lithuanian Armed Forces
#BalticFocus #SecuritySignal
Baltic ports: 11M 2025 — volumes, structure, divergence
Cargo flows across the Baltic ports in 2025 continue to diverge structurally rather than cyclically. Eleven-month results confirm that the post-2022 adjustment phase is effectively complete, with ports now operating in clearly differentiated roles.
Klaipėda sets the regional benchmark
Port of Klaipeda remains the volume and structure benchmark in the Baltic region. Over 11 months of 2025, total cargo throughput reached approximately 36mn t, maintaining double-digit year-on-year growth.
The growth profile is broad-based. Containerised cargo amounted to roughly 12mn t, or around 1.2mn TEU, accounting for about one-third of total throughput. Ro-ro cargo reached approximately 6mn t, meaning containers and ro-ro together generated around 50% of total volumes. LNG throughput stood at ~2.2mn t, petroleum products at ~3.4mn t, construction materials and minerals at ~2.0mn t, and fertilisers at ~1.6mn t. Grain volumes declined slightly to ~3.6mn t, but the reduction had no structural impact on overall port performance.
Klaipėda’s growth is therefore not driven by a single opportunistic stream but by scale, route density and diversified cargo structure embedded in EU logistics chains.
Latvia: one system, shared downside
Latvian ports continue to operate as a single system rather than independent niches. The combined picture over 11 months of 2025 remains negative despite isolated segment growth.
Riga handled approximately 17.3mn t, a 6.8% year-on-year decline, implying an absolute loss of roughly 1.3mn t compared with the same period in 2024. The contraction is concentrated in agricultural cargoes, where volumes fell by around 600,000 t, reflecting the loss of Russian grain flows that had previously acted as the port’s volume anchor. Container traffic remained modest at ~452,000 TEU, down slightly year on year, and remained largely local in nature. Passenger ferries and ro-ro traffic are absent following the withdrawal of services during the pandemic. Growth in petroleum products (+42%) and construction materials (+21%) was insufficient to offset the loss of agricultural throughput.
Ventspils recorded nominal growth of around 8%, supported almost exclusively by petroleum products (+618,000 t, +20%) and coal (+411,000 t, +47%). Iron ore volumes collapsed to negligible levels (–97%), underlining the port’s narrow and volatile cargo base.
Liepāja showed growth only in construction materials, reaching ~772,000 t (+24%), while agricultural cargoes, timber and ro-ro declined. The port remains local in scale and monosegmental in growth.
Tallinn: quarterly reporting, mixed model
Tallinna Sadam should be analysed separately due to its quarterly reporting cycle and fundamentally different operating model.
For 9M 2025, Tallinna Sadam handled 10.2mn t of cargo, up 4.9% year on year. Q3 throughput reached 3.37mn t, up 7.8%. Cargo growth was driven primarily by dry bulk (+14.7% over 9M; +46% in Q3) and liquid bulk (+32.9%), with container volumes increasing modestly to 1.58mn t (~195,000 TEU, +2.4%). Ro-ro volumes declined slightly to 4.81mn t (–4.5%).
The reported increase in grain volumes is not related to Estonian domestic production and reflects transit dry bulk flows rather than a structural agricultural base.
Passenger traffic remains the core stabilising factor. Over 9M 2025, Tallinna Sadam handled 6.41mn passengers, up 1.0%, with the Tallinn–Helsinki route accounting for 5.65mn passengers (+1.6%). Cruise passenger numbers increased by 17.8%, while vessel calls remained broadly stable.
Tallinn therefore combines moderate cargo growth with a high-frequency passenger and ro-ro model. It does not compete with Klaipėda on tonnage and does not rely on agricultural anchor cargoes.
Cargo flows across the Baltic ports in 2025 continue to diverge structurally rather than cyclically. Eleven-month results confirm that the post-2022 adjustment phase is effectively complete, with ports now operating in clearly differentiated roles.
Klaipėda sets the regional benchmark
Port of Klaipeda remains the volume and structure benchmark in the Baltic region. Over 11 months of 2025, total cargo throughput reached approximately 36mn t, maintaining double-digit year-on-year growth.
The growth profile is broad-based. Containerised cargo amounted to roughly 12mn t, or around 1.2mn TEU, accounting for about one-third of total throughput. Ro-ro cargo reached approximately 6mn t, meaning containers and ro-ro together generated around 50% of total volumes. LNG throughput stood at ~2.2mn t, petroleum products at ~3.4mn t, construction materials and minerals at ~2.0mn t, and fertilisers at ~1.6mn t. Grain volumes declined slightly to ~3.6mn t, but the reduction had no structural impact on overall port performance.
Klaipėda’s growth is therefore not driven by a single opportunistic stream but by scale, route density and diversified cargo structure embedded in EU logistics chains.
Latvia: one system, shared downside
Latvian ports continue to operate as a single system rather than independent niches. The combined picture over 11 months of 2025 remains negative despite isolated segment growth.
Riga handled approximately 17.3mn t, a 6.8% year-on-year decline, implying an absolute loss of roughly 1.3mn t compared with the same period in 2024. The contraction is concentrated in agricultural cargoes, where volumes fell by around 600,000 t, reflecting the loss of Russian grain flows that had previously acted as the port’s volume anchor. Container traffic remained modest at ~452,000 TEU, down slightly year on year, and remained largely local in nature. Passenger ferries and ro-ro traffic are absent following the withdrawal of services during the pandemic. Growth in petroleum products (+42%) and construction materials (+21%) was insufficient to offset the loss of agricultural throughput.
Ventspils recorded nominal growth of around 8%, supported almost exclusively by petroleum products (+618,000 t, +20%) and coal (+411,000 t, +47%). Iron ore volumes collapsed to negligible levels (–97%), underlining the port’s narrow and volatile cargo base.
Liepāja showed growth only in construction materials, reaching ~772,000 t (+24%), while agricultural cargoes, timber and ro-ro declined. The port remains local in scale and monosegmental in growth.
Tallinn: quarterly reporting, mixed model
Tallinna Sadam should be analysed separately due to its quarterly reporting cycle and fundamentally different operating model.
For 9M 2025, Tallinna Sadam handled 10.2mn t of cargo, up 4.9% year on year. Q3 throughput reached 3.37mn t, up 7.8%. Cargo growth was driven primarily by dry bulk (+14.7% over 9M; +46% in Q3) and liquid bulk (+32.9%), with container volumes increasing modestly to 1.58mn t (~195,000 TEU, +2.4%). Ro-ro volumes declined slightly to 4.81mn t (–4.5%).
The reported increase in grain volumes is not related to Estonian domestic production and reflects transit dry bulk flows rather than a structural agricultural base.
Passenger traffic remains the core stabilising factor. Over 9M 2025, Tallinna Sadam handled 6.41mn passengers, up 1.0%, with the Tallinn–Helsinki route accounting for 5.65mn passengers (+1.6%). Cruise passenger numbers increased by 17.8%, while vessel calls remained broadly stable.
Tallinn therefore combines moderate cargo growth with a high-frequency passenger and ro-ro model. It does not compete with Klaipėda on tonnage and does not rely on agricultural anchor cargoes.
Structural conclusion
By late 2025, Baltic ports are no longer moving along a shared cycle:
Klaipėda operates as the region’s universal cargo hub, combining scale, containerisation and ro-ro density.
Latvia’s ports function as a single system and remain exposed to the loss of their former agricultural anchor, with limited structural substitution.
Tallinn follows a distinct trajectory, publishing quarterly data and relying on passenger and ro-ro flows, supplemented by opportunistic bulk volumes.
The divergence is now structural rather than transitional and is increasingly visible in absolute tonnage, cargo mix and revenue stability.#BalticEconomy
#Ports
#Freight
By late 2025, Baltic ports are no longer moving along a shared cycle:
Klaipėda operates as the region’s universal cargo hub, combining scale, containerisation and ro-ro density.
Latvia’s ports function as a single system and remain exposed to the loss of their former agricultural anchor, with limited structural substitution.
Tallinn follows a distinct trajectory, publishing quarterly data and relying on passenger and ro-ro flows, supplemented by opportunistic bulk volumes.
The divergence is now structural rather than transitional and is increasingly visible in absolute tonnage, cargo mix and revenue stability.#BalticEconomy
#Ports
#Freight
ALTUM-backed affordable rental housing gains momentum across Latvia’s regions
Latvia’s state development institution ALTUM is accelerating the rollout of affordable rental housing across regional cities, with more than 500 apartments already under construction or at advanced development stages in 2025, backed by the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility.
One of the latest projects was approved in Liepāja, where developer HAGBERG secured €15.2 million in ALTUM financing for a 140-apartment affordable rental housing project. Total investment reaches €16.7 million, with construction planned to start in summer 2026 and completion expected within 14 months. Apartment allocation will be administered by the local municipality.
At the same time, several projects approved earlier under the same programme are already moving into delivery:
Valmiera — one of the first cities to implement the scheme, with around 120 apartments nearing completion in 2025 and additional buildings under construction.
Bauska — a low-rent housing project of roughly 60 apartments, currently in active development.
Tukums — a smaller-scale project focused on municipal rental demand.
Jelgava and Ventspils — projects approved with ALTUM co-financing, expanding the programme’s geographic reach beyond Pierīga.
Financing is provided through ALTUM’s low-rent housing loan scheme with capital rebate, combining EU funds, state-backed loans, and developer co-financing. Municipalities are responsible for tenant selection and waiting lists under nationally defined eligibility rules.
Context:
The programme marks a structural shift in Latvia’s housing policy — from fragmented municipal initiatives to a state-backed regional rental pipeline aimed at labour retention, affordability, and long-term urban resilience outside Riga. For Baltic observers, the scale and speed of rollout in 2025 suggest that affordable rental housing has become a permanent policy instrument rather than a one-off recovery measure.
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus
Latvia’s state development institution ALTUM is accelerating the rollout of affordable rental housing across regional cities, with more than 500 apartments already under construction or at advanced development stages in 2025, backed by the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility.
One of the latest projects was approved in Liepāja, where developer HAGBERG secured €15.2 million in ALTUM financing for a 140-apartment affordable rental housing project. Total investment reaches €16.7 million, with construction planned to start in summer 2026 and completion expected within 14 months. Apartment allocation will be administered by the local municipality.
At the same time, several projects approved earlier under the same programme are already moving into delivery:
Valmiera — one of the first cities to implement the scheme, with around 120 apartments nearing completion in 2025 and additional buildings under construction.
Bauska — a low-rent housing project of roughly 60 apartments, currently in active development.
Tukums — a smaller-scale project focused on municipal rental demand.
Jelgava and Ventspils — projects approved with ALTUM co-financing, expanding the programme’s geographic reach beyond Pierīga.
Financing is provided through ALTUM’s low-rent housing loan scheme with capital rebate, combining EU funds, state-backed loans, and developer co-financing. Municipalities are responsible for tenant selection and waiting lists under nationally defined eligibility rules.
Context:
The programme marks a structural shift in Latvia’s housing policy — from fragmented municipal initiatives to a state-backed regional rental pipeline aimed at labour retention, affordability, and long-term urban resilience outside Riga. For Baltic observers, the scale and speed of rollout in 2025 suggest that affordable rental housing has become a permanent policy instrument rather than a one-off recovery measure.
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus
Baltic Cities: Riga vs Vilnius vs Tallinn — Where Growth is Coming From (Corrected)
Air connectivity trends at the end of 2025 show that the Baltic capitals are no longer developing as a single aviation market. While total passenger volumes across the region continue to recover, the underlying growth logic, carrier behaviour, and strategic positioning of airports are increasingly diverging.
Riga: The Consolidated Strategic Hub
Riga remains the largest aviation gateway in the Baltic region. By the end of October 2025, Riga Airport had handled approximately 6.0 million passengers, representing around +1% year-on-year growth. November traffic added roughly 430–440 thousand passengers, confirming volume leadership but also signalling a clear phase of stabilisation rather than rapid expansion.
The core shift in Riga is structural rather than numerical. The airport is gradually moving away from a point-to-point, low-cost–driven growth model toward a mature hub configuration based on network density and transfer efficiency. airBaltic continues to dominate the market with an estimated 55–60% share, and its strategy increasingly prioritises connectivity depth over headline passenger growth.
An important structural signal within this model is the entry of flydubai, which launched direct Dubai–Riga services in December 2025. While the route does not yet represent guaranteed transfer volume, it introduces a second long-haul transit geometry for the Baltic region. Until recently, Istanbul functioned as the only southern and eastern transit hub with meaningful relevance for Baltic passengers. Dubai adds an alternative axis, oriented toward South Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa, testing whether Baltic demand can sustain more than one non-European transit gateway. This does not change Riga’s short-term volume profile, but it materially alters the region’s connectivity options.
Operationally, Riga’s relationship with low-cost carriers remains stable rather than expansionary. The emphasis is shifting toward reliability, punctuality, and hub performance, reinforcing Riga’s role as a consolidated strategic node rather than an aggressively growing low-cost base.
Vilnius: The Distributed Growth Engine
Lithuania continues to lead the region in terms of growth momentum. In November 2025, Lithuanian Airports handled approximately 526,500 passengers, an increase of about 8% year-on-year. Vilnius Airport alone accounted for roughly 379,000 passengers, marking around 11% growth compared with November 2024.
This performance reflects a distinct “distributed growth” model. Vilnius functions as the primary business and connectivity hub, while Kaunas and Palanga provide additional volume and seasonal flexibility. The system allows Lithuania to scale traffic without concentrating all growth pressure on a single airport.
Carrier behaviour in Vilnius is notably aggressive. Wizz Air has expanded its presence and launched new regional and Central European routes, directly competing with airBaltic even on traditionally “home-market” connections. Ryanair continues to maintain high frequencies. As a result, Vilnius has become the most contested aviation market in the Baltics, driven by strong outbound mobility, labour migration flows, and a comparatively dynamic services and technology sector.
Unlike Riga, Vilnius prioritises volume and competitive density over hub logic, making it more sensitive to economic cycles but also more responsive to demand surges.
Air connectivity trends at the end of 2025 show that the Baltic capitals are no longer developing as a single aviation market. While total passenger volumes across the region continue to recover, the underlying growth logic, carrier behaviour, and strategic positioning of airports are increasingly diverging.
Riga: The Consolidated Strategic Hub
Riga remains the largest aviation gateway in the Baltic region. By the end of October 2025, Riga Airport had handled approximately 6.0 million passengers, representing around +1% year-on-year growth. November traffic added roughly 430–440 thousand passengers, confirming volume leadership but also signalling a clear phase of stabilisation rather than rapid expansion.
The core shift in Riga is structural rather than numerical. The airport is gradually moving away from a point-to-point, low-cost–driven growth model toward a mature hub configuration based on network density and transfer efficiency. airBaltic continues to dominate the market with an estimated 55–60% share, and its strategy increasingly prioritises connectivity depth over headline passenger growth.
An important structural signal within this model is the entry of flydubai, which launched direct Dubai–Riga services in December 2025. While the route does not yet represent guaranteed transfer volume, it introduces a second long-haul transit geometry for the Baltic region. Until recently, Istanbul functioned as the only southern and eastern transit hub with meaningful relevance for Baltic passengers. Dubai adds an alternative axis, oriented toward South Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa, testing whether Baltic demand can sustain more than one non-European transit gateway. This does not change Riga’s short-term volume profile, but it materially alters the region’s connectivity options.
Operationally, Riga’s relationship with low-cost carriers remains stable rather than expansionary. The emphasis is shifting toward reliability, punctuality, and hub performance, reinforcing Riga’s role as a consolidated strategic node rather than an aggressively growing low-cost base.
Vilnius: The Distributed Growth Engine
Lithuania continues to lead the region in terms of growth momentum. In November 2025, Lithuanian Airports handled approximately 526,500 passengers, an increase of about 8% year-on-year. Vilnius Airport alone accounted for roughly 379,000 passengers, marking around 11% growth compared with November 2024.
This performance reflects a distinct “distributed growth” model. Vilnius functions as the primary business and connectivity hub, while Kaunas and Palanga provide additional volume and seasonal flexibility. The system allows Lithuania to scale traffic without concentrating all growth pressure on a single airport.
Carrier behaviour in Vilnius is notably aggressive. Wizz Air has expanded its presence and launched new regional and Central European routes, directly competing with airBaltic even on traditionally “home-market” connections. Ryanair continues to maintain high frequencies. As a result, Vilnius has become the most contested aviation market in the Baltics, driven by strong outbound mobility, labour migration flows, and a comparatively dynamic services and technology sector.
Unlike Riga, Vilnius prioritises volume and competitive density over hub logic, making it more sensitive to economic cycles but also more responsive to demand surges.
Tallinn: The High-Yield Niche
Tallinn represents a third, clearly differentiated model. In November 2025, Tallinn Airport served just over 260,000 passengers, showing approximately 5% year-on-year growth. While Estonia has the smallest population base among the three capitals, Tallinn consistently outperforms its size due to a high functional market size, capturing spillover demand from Southern Finland.
Growth in Tallinn is selective rather than expansive. New routes tend to focus on medium-range European destinations with strong leisure or business yield rather than sheer volume. Seasonal services, including winter and holiday routes, play a visible role, but they are layered onto a structurally resilient base.
Looking ahead, network carriers also see room for targeted expansion. airBaltic has announced additional routes from Tallinn for the 2026 summer season, signalling confidence in sustained demand beyond purely seasonal traffic. Tallinn increasingly resembles a “boutique gateway”: limited in scale, but efficient, profitable per passenger, and strategically positioned between Nordic and Central European markets.
The Signal
By the end of 2025, the Baltic aviation landscape is defined by structural differentiation, not competition for the same growth model:
Riga grows through hub density, operational maturity, and emerging non-European transit options.
Vilnius grows through distributed volume and aggressive multi-carrier competition.
Tallinn grows through geographic flexibility and high-yield niche demand.
This divergence strengthens regional resilience. In a compact geography where distances are short and alternatives exist, multiple aviation models allow the Baltics to absorb shocks, test new connectivity patterns, and adapt to changing global travel flows without relying on a single growth narrative.
BSM© 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus #aviation #balticstates #riga #vilnius #tallinn
Tallinn represents a third, clearly differentiated model. In November 2025, Tallinn Airport served just over 260,000 passengers, showing approximately 5% year-on-year growth. While Estonia has the smallest population base among the three capitals, Tallinn consistently outperforms its size due to a high functional market size, capturing spillover demand from Southern Finland.
Growth in Tallinn is selective rather than expansive. New routes tend to focus on medium-range European destinations with strong leisure or business yield rather than sheer volume. Seasonal services, including winter and holiday routes, play a visible role, but they are layered onto a structurally resilient base.
Looking ahead, network carriers also see room for targeted expansion. airBaltic has announced additional routes from Tallinn for the 2026 summer season, signalling confidence in sustained demand beyond purely seasonal traffic. Tallinn increasingly resembles a “boutique gateway”: limited in scale, but efficient, profitable per passenger, and strategically positioned between Nordic and Central European markets.
The Signal
By the end of 2025, the Baltic aviation landscape is defined by structural differentiation, not competition for the same growth model:
Riga grows through hub density, operational maturity, and emerging non-European transit options.
Vilnius grows through distributed volume and aggressive multi-carrier competition.
Tallinn grows through geographic flexibility and high-yield niche demand.
This divergence strengthens regional resilience. In a compact geography where distances are short and alternatives exist, multiple aviation models allow the Baltics to absorb shocks, test new connectivity patterns, and adapt to changing global travel flows without relying on a single growth narrative.
BSM© 2025 | balticfocus.org
#balticfocus #aviation #balticstates #riga #vilnius #tallinn
Latvia’s peat memorandum and the Baltic policy split
On 18 December 2025, Latvia’s Ministry of Agriculture and the Latvian Peat Association formalised cooperation through a memorandum aimed at securing predictable access to peat resources, promoting higher value-added products—especially professional growing media—and reinforcing export orientation. The agreement also signals private investment commitments by association members through 2050.
This is not a routine sectoral accord. It is a defensive move shaped by a difficult production year and a tightening European policy environment that increasingly challenges the economic logic of peat extraction, even when peat is used for horticulture rather than energy.
Why the sector seeks protection now
First, the 2025 season disrupted supply. Across the Baltics, unusually wet conditions reduced extraction volumes, particularly of upper-layer fractions crucial for professional substrates. For growers and substrate manufacturers, this translates directly into higher prices and less predictable deliveries ahead of the 2026 planting season.
Second, EU climate logic has become function-agnostic. From a carbon-accounting perspective, peat is increasingly treated as an emission at the point of extraction or drainage, irrespective of whether it is burned or used to grow plants. This approach narrows policy space for distinguishing horticultural peat from energy peat and raises costs through fiscal and regulatory channels.
Latvia’s memorandum responds to both pressures by attempting to stabilise expectations—among producers, investors and buyers—before market confidence erodes.
Latvia’s position
Latvia frames peat as a strategic agri-input, not a fuel. The sector’s structure supports this claim: roughly 97% of extracted peat is used in horticulture and forestry, and Latvian peat accounts for around 30% of the peat used in EU professional horticulture. Exports reach more than 100 countries and have averaged about 1.4% of Latvia’s total exports over the past five years. Employment—over 2,300 jobs—is concentrated in rural regions and the eastern border area.
The memorandum’s emphasis on value-added products and energy efficiency reflects a clear choice: remain inside European food and forestry supply chains rather than drift toward managed decline.
Neighbours, different paths
The Latvian move stands out against regional contrasts.
Estonia has opted for a harder line. Fiscal measures and climate policy are steering the sector toward reduced extraction and toward monetising peatland restoration through emerging carbon and rewetting mechanisms. The direction is explicit: less digging, more restoration-based revenue.
Lithuania occupies a middle ground. With a less severe production shock in 2025, companies are focusing on adaptation—reformulating substrates, increasing the share of blends and processing—to preserve export positions while preparing for higher costs later in the decade.
Together, these paths illustrate a Baltic policy divergence under a shared EU framework.
The market risk: trust, not bans
The principal risk for Latvian producers is loss of buyer trust, not immediate prohibition. Professional greenhouse growers—particularly in the Netherlands—value consistency, repeatability and long-term contracts. Rising prices and forced changes in substrate recipes undermine that predictability. Under ESG and financing pressure, growers may be pushed to adopt “peat-free” or “low-peat” alternatives even if performance is inferior.
Once large growers retool production protocols, retrain staff and re-certify supply chains, switching back is slow and costly. Market exits driven by regulation are often structurally irreversible.
On 18 December 2025, Latvia’s Ministry of Agriculture and the Latvian Peat Association formalised cooperation through a memorandum aimed at securing predictable access to peat resources, promoting higher value-added products—especially professional growing media—and reinforcing export orientation. The agreement also signals private investment commitments by association members through 2050.
This is not a routine sectoral accord. It is a defensive move shaped by a difficult production year and a tightening European policy environment that increasingly challenges the economic logic of peat extraction, even when peat is used for horticulture rather than energy.
Why the sector seeks protection now
First, the 2025 season disrupted supply. Across the Baltics, unusually wet conditions reduced extraction volumes, particularly of upper-layer fractions crucial for professional substrates. For growers and substrate manufacturers, this translates directly into higher prices and less predictable deliveries ahead of the 2026 planting season.
Second, EU climate logic has become function-agnostic. From a carbon-accounting perspective, peat is increasingly treated as an emission at the point of extraction or drainage, irrespective of whether it is burned or used to grow plants. This approach narrows policy space for distinguishing horticultural peat from energy peat and raises costs through fiscal and regulatory channels.
Latvia’s memorandum responds to both pressures by attempting to stabilise expectations—among producers, investors and buyers—before market confidence erodes.
Latvia’s position
Latvia frames peat as a strategic agri-input, not a fuel. The sector’s structure supports this claim: roughly 97% of extracted peat is used in horticulture and forestry, and Latvian peat accounts for around 30% of the peat used in EU professional horticulture. Exports reach more than 100 countries and have averaged about 1.4% of Latvia’s total exports over the past five years. Employment—over 2,300 jobs—is concentrated in rural regions and the eastern border area.
The memorandum’s emphasis on value-added products and energy efficiency reflects a clear choice: remain inside European food and forestry supply chains rather than drift toward managed decline.
Neighbours, different paths
The Latvian move stands out against regional contrasts.
Estonia has opted for a harder line. Fiscal measures and climate policy are steering the sector toward reduced extraction and toward monetising peatland restoration through emerging carbon and rewetting mechanisms. The direction is explicit: less digging, more restoration-based revenue.
Lithuania occupies a middle ground. With a less severe production shock in 2025, companies are focusing on adaptation—reformulating substrates, increasing the share of blends and processing—to preserve export positions while preparing for higher costs later in the decade.
Together, these paths illustrate a Baltic policy divergence under a shared EU framework.
The market risk: trust, not bans
The principal risk for Latvian producers is loss of buyer trust, not immediate prohibition. Professional greenhouse growers—particularly in the Netherlands—value consistency, repeatability and long-term contracts. Rising prices and forced changes in substrate recipes undermine that predictability. Under ESG and financing pressure, growers may be pushed to adopt “peat-free” or “low-peat” alternatives even if performance is inferior.
Once large growers retool production protocols, retrain staff and re-certify supply chains, switching back is slow and costly. Market exits driven by regulation are often structurally irreversible.
What the memorandum aims to do
Latvia’s agreement seeks to counter this trajectory by anchoring expectations: predictable access to resources, a clear export focus and a political signal that the country does not intend to let the sector fade by default. It does not challenge EU climate objectives outright. Instead, it argues—implicitly—that unmanaged erosion of trust in established supply chains could shift demand toward imports from jurisdictions with different regulatory regimes, without reducing global extraction.
Outlook
Whether the memorandum succeeds will depend on follow-through: regulatory stability at home and credible engagement in Brussels on classification, accounting and transition timelines. For now, it marks a strategic choice. In a region where neighbours are either tightening or quietly adapting, Latvia has chosen to publicly defend its peat sector as part of Europe’s agri-food infrastructure—before market confidence is lost.BSM© 2025 #BalticFocus #EUClimate #AgriSupplyChains #Horticulture #GreenDeal
Latvia’s agreement seeks to counter this trajectory by anchoring expectations: predictable access to resources, a clear export focus and a political signal that the country does not intend to let the sector fade by default. It does not challenge EU climate objectives outright. Instead, it argues—implicitly—that unmanaged erosion of trust in established supply chains could shift demand toward imports from jurisdictions with different regulatory regimes, without reducing global extraction.
Outlook
Whether the memorandum succeeds will depend on follow-through: regulatory stability at home and credible engagement in Brussels on classification, accounting and transition timelines. For now, it marks a strategic choice. In a region where neighbours are either tightening or quietly adapting, Latvia has chosen to publicly defend its peat sector as part of Europe’s agri-food infrastructure—before market confidence is lost.BSM© 2025 #BalticFocus #EUClimate #AgriSupplyChains #Horticulture #GreenDeal