🇱🇻 Latvia Transport Signal | Ventspils grows against national trend
Latvian ports handled 25.5 mln t in Jan–Sep (–1.9%), but Ventspils is moving in the opposite direction: +14.7%, totalling 6.5 mln t.
Growth came across key segments — oil products (+39%), Ro-Ro (+22%) and Kazakhstan coal (+60%). Liquid cargo increase is driven by higher oil-product imports handled through the Ventspils terminal system.
Ventspils has also opened a unique corridor for 100-metre heavy-haul convoys, now used for large renewable-energy components.
Ventspils remains the only major port expanding, supported by liquid cargo and oversize logistics.
🔗 X-version: https://x.com/BalticFocus/status/1997054094146727959
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#Latvia #Ventspils #Ports #Logistics
Latvian ports handled 25.5 mln t in Jan–Sep (–1.9%), but Ventspils is moving in the opposite direction: +14.7%, totalling 6.5 mln t.
Growth came across key segments — oil products (+39%), Ro-Ro (+22%) and Kazakhstan coal (+60%). Liquid cargo increase is driven by higher oil-product imports handled through the Ventspils terminal system.
Ventspils has also opened a unique corridor for 100-metre heavy-haul convoys, now used for large renewable-energy components.
Ventspils remains the only major port expanding, supported by liquid cargo and oversize logistics.
🔗 X-version: https://x.com/BalticFocus/status/1997054094146727959
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org
#Latvia #Ventspils #Ports #Logistics
🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪 Baltic Grocery Index — Week of 6 December
Latvia –1.8%
Prices eased on poultry and pork, while vegetables remained stable. Latvia holds a mid-range position in the region.
Lithuania –0.9%
Lower egg prices and stable meat keep Lithuania the cheapest basket in the Baltics. Core essentials remain consistently below LV and EE levels.
Estonia +0.6%
Higher pork and egg prices lifted the weekly basket, despite cheaper oil and milk. Estonia remains the most expensive market overall.
Baltic trend:
Lithuania leads on affordability, Latvia stays balanced, while Estonia faces the strongest price pressure in protein categories. Rice remains the sharpest divergence — EE levels are still 2–2.5× below LV and LT.
Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
Latvia –1.8%
Prices eased on poultry and pork, while vegetables remained stable. Latvia holds a mid-range position in the region.
Lithuania –0.9%
Lower egg prices and stable meat keep Lithuania the cheapest basket in the Baltics. Core essentials remain consistently below LV and EE levels.
Estonia +0.6%
Higher pork and egg prices lifted the weekly basket, despite cheaper oil and milk. Estonia remains the most expensive market overall.
Baltic trend:
Lithuania leads on affordability, Latvia stays balanced, while Estonia faces the strongest price pressure in protein categories. Rice remains the sharpest divergence — EE levels are still 2–2.5× below LV and LT.
Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
🇱🇻 LATVIA — Basket –1.8% WoW
Milk 0.75
Bread 0.39
Eggs (10) 2.29
Chicken fillet (kg) 6.99
Pork shoulder (kg) 5.69
Potatoes (kg) 0.49
Carrots (kg) 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L 1.99
Rice 800g 1.19
Sugar 1kg 0.75
Latvia remains a mid-range market: stable vegetables, easing meat prices.
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA — Basket –0.9% WoW
Milk 0.62–0.65
Bread 0.79
Eggs (10) 2.15
Chicken fillet (kg) 7.29–8.49
Pork shoulder (kg) 5.59
Potatoes (kg) 0.49*
Carrots (kg) 0.65*
Sunflower oil 1L 1.54
Rice 800g 0.95
Sugar 1kg 0.89
*Last available baseline price (product out of stock at week end).
Lithuania keeps the cheapest basket in the Baltics, driven by protein categories.
🇪🇪 ESTONIA — Basket +0.6% WoW
Milk 0.59
Bread 0.43
Eggs (10) 2.75
Chicken fillet (kg) 6.58
Pork shoulder (kg) 9.29
Potatoes (kg) 0.39
Carrots (kg) 0.45
Sunflower oil 1L 1.59
Rice 800g 0.49
Sugar 1kg 0.73
Estonia remains the most expensive market, with pork and eggs driving the weekly increase.
🔎 Baltic Trend
• Lithuania is the most affordable — protein prices remain the lowest.
• Latvia is stable — mid-range basket with minor declines.
• Estonia is the most expensive — strong upward pressure in pork and eggs.
• Rice shows the widest divergence: EE prices are still 2–2.5× below LV and LT. Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
Milk 0.75
Bread 0.39
Eggs (10) 2.29
Chicken fillet (kg) 6.99
Pork shoulder (kg) 5.69
Potatoes (kg) 0.49
Carrots (kg) 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L 1.99
Rice 800g 1.19
Sugar 1kg 0.75
Latvia remains a mid-range market: stable vegetables, easing meat prices.
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA — Basket –0.9% WoW
Milk 0.62–0.65
Bread 0.79
Eggs (10) 2.15
Chicken fillet (kg) 7.29–8.49
Pork shoulder (kg) 5.59
Potatoes (kg) 0.49*
Carrots (kg) 0.65*
Sunflower oil 1L 1.54
Rice 800g 0.95
Sugar 1kg 0.89
*Last available baseline price (product out of stock at week end).
Lithuania keeps the cheapest basket in the Baltics, driven by protein categories.
🇪🇪 ESTONIA — Basket +0.6% WoW
Milk 0.59
Bread 0.43
Eggs (10) 2.75
Chicken fillet (kg) 6.58
Pork shoulder (kg) 9.29
Potatoes (kg) 0.39
Carrots (kg) 0.45
Sunflower oil 1L 1.59
Rice 800g 0.49
Sugar 1kg 0.73
Estonia remains the most expensive market, with pork and eggs driving the weekly increase.
🔎 Baltic Trend
• Lithuania is the most affordable — protein prices remain the lowest.
• Latvia is stable — mid-range basket with minor declines.
• Estonia is the most expensive — strong upward pressure in pork and eggs.
• Rice shows the widest divergence: EE prices are still 2–2.5× below LV and LT. Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
Baltic Shift Map — Monday Signals (01–07 December)
1) Three-speed wage divergence emerges in the Baltics
Lithuania accelerates to the highest wages in the region (€2,427, +8.5%). Estonia slows (€2,075, +5.9%). Latvia remains stable but published Q2 data with unusual delay. Divergence will shape 2026 consumption and mobility.
2) Estonia secures 1036 MW for island-mode operation
The Elering–Enefit Power agreement guarantees enough controllable generation for full grid isolation. A core resilience step ahead of Baltic desynchronisation; financed via a new security-of-supply fee (€2.35/month).
3) Social Radar: low-probability defence scenario amplified into politics
A RAND comment on dismantling Latvia’s broad-gauge rail was escalated from analytical scenario to political debate. The reaction highlights increased sensitivity of the Baltic information space.
4) Fokker Latvia: liquidation exposes PR-stage industrial promises
The hydrogen aircraft project ends without assets, staff or activity. Public momentum had already shifted to the Netherlands. The case shows how small states can be used for EU-optics without real industrial commitments.
5) airBaltic downgrade formalises liquidity stress
Fitch cuts airBaltic to CCC+. The airline may need €180–220M within a year. Airbus delivery obligations and high-cost bonds compress strategic options. The 2026 IPO window is effectively closed.
6) Baltic capital markets reinforce retail strength
Storent raises €16.5M with 85% retail participation. Retail-driven financing remains a defining feature of Baltic capital markets.
7) Estonia’s poultry sector shows expansion — and regulatory risk appears simultaneously
Maag Food opened Estonia’s largest poultry halls (120×30 m each; >1M broilers/year; €5M investment).
Almost simultaneously, the company became the subject of a tax-evasion investigation: the Estonian Tax and Customs Board conducted searches in offices and private residences, suspecting large-scale underreporting of taxable profit.
This creates a dual signal: rapid industrial expansion in Estonia’s protein sector alongside heightened fiscal scrutiny of one of its central players — a combination that may influence investment planning and sector consolidation in 2026.#BalticFocus #BalticShiftMap #BSM2025
#Baltics #Economy #EnergySecurity
#SocialRadar #Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia
1) Three-speed wage divergence emerges in the Baltics
Lithuania accelerates to the highest wages in the region (€2,427, +8.5%). Estonia slows (€2,075, +5.9%). Latvia remains stable but published Q2 data with unusual delay. Divergence will shape 2026 consumption and mobility.
2) Estonia secures 1036 MW for island-mode operation
The Elering–Enefit Power agreement guarantees enough controllable generation for full grid isolation. A core resilience step ahead of Baltic desynchronisation; financed via a new security-of-supply fee (€2.35/month).
3) Social Radar: low-probability defence scenario amplified into politics
A RAND comment on dismantling Latvia’s broad-gauge rail was escalated from analytical scenario to political debate. The reaction highlights increased sensitivity of the Baltic information space.
4) Fokker Latvia: liquidation exposes PR-stage industrial promises
The hydrogen aircraft project ends without assets, staff or activity. Public momentum had already shifted to the Netherlands. The case shows how small states can be used for EU-optics without real industrial commitments.
5) airBaltic downgrade formalises liquidity stress
Fitch cuts airBaltic to CCC+. The airline may need €180–220M within a year. Airbus delivery obligations and high-cost bonds compress strategic options. The 2026 IPO window is effectively closed.
6) Baltic capital markets reinforce retail strength
Storent raises €16.5M with 85% retail participation. Retail-driven financing remains a defining feature of Baltic capital markets.
7) Estonia’s poultry sector shows expansion — and regulatory risk appears simultaneously
Maag Food opened Estonia’s largest poultry halls (120×30 m each; >1M broilers/year; €5M investment).
Almost simultaneously, the company became the subject of a tax-evasion investigation: the Estonian Tax and Customs Board conducted searches in offices and private residences, suspecting large-scale underreporting of taxable profit.
This creates a dual signal: rapid industrial expansion in Estonia’s protein sector alongside heightened fiscal scrutiny of one of its central players — a combination that may influence investment planning and sector consolidation in 2026.#BalticFocus #BalticShiftMap #BSM2025
#Baltics #Economy #EnergySecurity
#SocialRadar #Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia
Baltic Social Radar: December 1–7, 2025
This weekly overview analyzes trending non-media topics in X (formerly Twitter) discussions from Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, focusing on native-language content (Estonian: et; Lithuanian: lt; Latvian: lv). We prioritized posts with high engagement (likes >50, reposts >10), excluded news/links, and used semantic filters to surface organic conversations on daily life, culture, and local concerns.
~120 high-relevance posts formed five cross-Baltic themes. Tonalities reflect aggregated sentiment (positive = optimistic/humorous, negative = frustrated/critical, mixed = balanced).
A separate section reviews Russian-language conversations from Baltic users (lang:ru with geo/keyword filters), now reconstructed to show two distinct clusters rather than a single bloc.
Top 5 Native-Language Themes (Estonian / Lithuanian / Latvian)
Holiday cheer mixes with economic strain and security anxiety. ~55% of posts came from Tallinn, Vilnius, and Riga; activity peaked mid-week during budget debates and cultural events.
1) Holiday Traditions & Markets
Description: Festive preparations, Christmas markets, nostalgia for old customs, eco-friendly gifting debates. Latvia especially active after Riga’s market appeared near the top of European rankings.
Key Examples:
– Latvians sharing Riga Christmas lights
– Lithuanians discussing tree recycling and sustainable gifts
– Estonians joking about Santa’s “Riigikogu boycott”
Tonality: Positive, with light eco-critiques
Engagement: ~30% of all posts; ~120 likes/post
2) Economic Pressures & Budget Impacts
Description: VAT hikes (books, sweets, tobacco), excise increases, frustration over infrastructure delays and rising medical costs.
Key Examples:
– Estonia: medicine shortages
– Lithuania: objections to transport taxes
– Latvia: criticism of the 2026 budget deficit
Tonality: Negative
Engagement: Often 200+ likes
3) Language Policy & Integration
Description: A sharp spike driven by Latvia’s new requirements for Ukrainian refugees to learn Latvian to keep employment and benefits; heavy referencing of Lithuania’s court decision allowing aid cuts for skipping >40% of classes. Budget cuts (Latvia’s refugee support reduced to ~€39M in 2026) amplified debate.
Key Examples:
– Calls to “mirror Lithuania’s ruling exactly”
– Discussions on reviewing status for refugees who travel to Russia
– Complaints about Russian-speaking cashiers in major chains
Tonality: Mixed: pride in stricter integration vs frustration at “unwilling learners”
Engagement: ~20% of theme share; 100–300 likes/post (e.g., @liana_langa’s post ~95 likes)
4) Military Readiness & Security
Description: Conscription expansion, Belarus balloon/BPLA incidents, emergency planning, border infrastructure adjustments.
Key Examples:
– Lithuania: annual target of 5,000 conscripts
– Estonia: “hybrid probes” near critical sites
– Latvia: rail dismantling toward Russia widely discussed
Tonality: Negative (anxiety), with pockets of positive resolve
Engagement: 150–300 likes on high-impact threads
5) Cultural Heritage & Media Freedom
Description: Ownership of song festivals, pressures on journalists, anniversaries of Baltic linguistic heritage.
Key Examples:
– Latvia: disputes between community vs official organisers
– Lithuania: support for LRT independence
– Estonia: folklore integration in schools
Tonality: Positive–mixed
Engagement: ~100+ likes; strong artist/teacher participation
Overall Tonality (Native-Language)
Mixed:
– 50% positive (holidays & heritage)
– 35% negative (economy & security)
– 15% neutral
Users balance festive optimism with budget irritation and ongoing geopolitical caution.
Russian-Language Trends Among Baltic Users (Dec 1–7, 2025)
~40 high-engagement lang:ru posts.
Critical finding: Russian-speaking conversations do not form a single sentiment cluster. Instead, they divide into two distinct, minimally connected groups with different values, tones, and social ties.
Cluster A — Cultural & Linguistic Frustration (Everyday Concerns)
Profile:
Older demographic (35–50+), focused on
This weekly overview analyzes trending non-media topics in X (formerly Twitter) discussions from Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, focusing on native-language content (Estonian: et; Lithuanian: lt; Latvian: lv). We prioritized posts with high engagement (likes >50, reposts >10), excluded news/links, and used semantic filters to surface organic conversations on daily life, culture, and local concerns.
~120 high-relevance posts formed five cross-Baltic themes. Tonalities reflect aggregated sentiment (positive = optimistic/humorous, negative = frustrated/critical, mixed = balanced).
A separate section reviews Russian-language conversations from Baltic users (lang:ru with geo/keyword filters), now reconstructed to show two distinct clusters rather than a single bloc.
Top 5 Native-Language Themes (Estonian / Lithuanian / Latvian)
Holiday cheer mixes with economic strain and security anxiety. ~55% of posts came from Tallinn, Vilnius, and Riga; activity peaked mid-week during budget debates and cultural events.
1) Holiday Traditions & Markets
Description: Festive preparations, Christmas markets, nostalgia for old customs, eco-friendly gifting debates. Latvia especially active after Riga’s market appeared near the top of European rankings.
Key Examples:
– Latvians sharing Riga Christmas lights
– Lithuanians discussing tree recycling and sustainable gifts
– Estonians joking about Santa’s “Riigikogu boycott”
Tonality: Positive, with light eco-critiques
Engagement: ~30% of all posts; ~120 likes/post
2) Economic Pressures & Budget Impacts
Description: VAT hikes (books, sweets, tobacco), excise increases, frustration over infrastructure delays and rising medical costs.
Key Examples:
– Estonia: medicine shortages
– Lithuania: objections to transport taxes
– Latvia: criticism of the 2026 budget deficit
Tonality: Negative
Engagement: Often 200+ likes
3) Language Policy & Integration
Description: A sharp spike driven by Latvia’s new requirements for Ukrainian refugees to learn Latvian to keep employment and benefits; heavy referencing of Lithuania’s court decision allowing aid cuts for skipping >40% of classes. Budget cuts (Latvia’s refugee support reduced to ~€39M in 2026) amplified debate.
Key Examples:
– Calls to “mirror Lithuania’s ruling exactly”
– Discussions on reviewing status for refugees who travel to Russia
– Complaints about Russian-speaking cashiers in major chains
Tonality: Mixed: pride in stricter integration vs frustration at “unwilling learners”
Engagement: ~20% of theme share; 100–300 likes/post (e.g., @liana_langa’s post ~95 likes)
4) Military Readiness & Security
Description: Conscription expansion, Belarus balloon/BPLA incidents, emergency planning, border infrastructure adjustments.
Key Examples:
– Lithuania: annual target of 5,000 conscripts
– Estonia: “hybrid probes” near critical sites
– Latvia: rail dismantling toward Russia widely discussed
Tonality: Negative (anxiety), with pockets of positive resolve
Engagement: 150–300 likes on high-impact threads
5) Cultural Heritage & Media Freedom
Description: Ownership of song festivals, pressures on journalists, anniversaries of Baltic linguistic heritage.
Key Examples:
– Latvia: disputes between community vs official organisers
– Lithuania: support for LRT independence
– Estonia: folklore integration in schools
Tonality: Positive–mixed
Engagement: ~100+ likes; strong artist/teacher participation
Overall Tonality (Native-Language)
Mixed:
– 50% positive (holidays & heritage)
– 35% negative (economy & security)
– 15% neutral
Users balance festive optimism with budget irritation and ongoing geopolitical caution.
Russian-Language Trends Among Baltic Users (Dec 1–7, 2025)
~40 high-engagement lang:ru posts.
Critical finding: Russian-speaking conversations do not form a single sentiment cluster. Instead, they divide into two distinct, minimally connected groups with different values, tones, and social ties.
Cluster A — Cultural & Linguistic Frustration (Everyday Concerns)
Profile:
Older demographic (35–50+), focused on
Cluster A — Cultural & Linguistic Frustration (Everyday Concerns)
Profile:
Older demographic (35–50+), focused on daily-life issues, culturally anxious, politically cautious, rarely interacting with Cluster B.
Narratives: language pressure, cultural erosion, rising costs.
Themes (~60% of RU-language activity):
1) Language Mandates & Integration Rules
Complaints about mandatory courses, exams, and Latvian-language requirements in retail and services.
Tone: negative
Engagement: ~180 likes
2) Economic Pressure & Cost of Living
Medicine prices, excises, basic goods; nostalgia for “cheaper years.”
Tone: mixed
Engagement: ~140 likes
3) VAT on Russian Books & Media Restrictions
Pushback against 21% VAT on RU books and film dubbing restrictions.
Tone: negative–anxious
Engagement: ~120 likes
4) Holiday Nostalgia
Non-political festive posts, photos, recipes.
Tone: positive
Engagement: ~90 likes
Cluster B — Pro-Ukraine, Security-Focused & Civically Active
Profile:
Younger users (20–40), urban/IT/creative/volunteer circles, openly pro-Ukraine, critical of Kremlin narratives, supportive of Baltic security policies.
Very limited overlap with Cluster A.
Themes (~40% of RU-language activity):
1) Ukraine Solidarity
Fundraisers, community support, volunteer updates.
Tone: strongly positive–empathetic
Engagement: 200+ likes
2) Border Security & Belarus Balloon Incidents
Support for rail dismantling toward Russia; calls for coordinated Baltic airspace response.
Tone: positive on defense, negative on threats
Engagement: 150–250 likes
3) Integration as Civic Duty
“Live here — learn the language” messaging; strict support for enforcement.
Tone: positive–strict
Engagement: 80–120 likes
4) Anti-Kremlin Commentary
Mocking propagandists, highlighting democratic movements.
Tone: sharply negative toward Kremlin; supportive of EU/NATO
Engagement: 150+ likes
Structural Observation: Two Segments, Not One
Russian-language conversations in the Baltics form two separate ecosystems, not a unified bloc:
Cluster A focuses on cultural/language frustration and avoids geopolitics.
Cluster B focuses on Ukraine, security, and civic norms.
Cross-cluster interaction is minimal, meaning aggregated sentiment would be misleading.
The two audiences must be analyzed independently.
Summary Signal
Balts navigate December with holiday optimism, economic irritation, and persistent security awareness.
Latvia’s integration debate becomes the week’s biggest social flashpoint.
Russian-language discussions bifurcate sharply, revealing two different communities rather than a single “minority opinion.”#BalticSocialRadar #BalticFocus #Baltics #Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania #SocialTrends #PublicSentiment #LanguagePolicy #Integration #Security #HybridThreats #UkraineSupport #HolidayTrends #EconomicPressure #BookVAT #MediaFreedom #CulturalHeritage #DigitalPublicSphere
Profile:
Older demographic (35–50+), focused on daily-life issues, culturally anxious, politically cautious, rarely interacting with Cluster B.
Narratives: language pressure, cultural erosion, rising costs.
Themes (~60% of RU-language activity):
1) Language Mandates & Integration Rules
Complaints about mandatory courses, exams, and Latvian-language requirements in retail and services.
Tone: negative
Engagement: ~180 likes
2) Economic Pressure & Cost of Living
Medicine prices, excises, basic goods; nostalgia for “cheaper years.”
Tone: mixed
Engagement: ~140 likes
3) VAT on Russian Books & Media Restrictions
Pushback against 21% VAT on RU books and film dubbing restrictions.
Tone: negative–anxious
Engagement: ~120 likes
4) Holiday Nostalgia
Non-political festive posts, photos, recipes.
Tone: positive
Engagement: ~90 likes
Cluster B — Pro-Ukraine, Security-Focused & Civically Active
Profile:
Younger users (20–40), urban/IT/creative/volunteer circles, openly pro-Ukraine, critical of Kremlin narratives, supportive of Baltic security policies.
Very limited overlap with Cluster A.
Themes (~40% of RU-language activity):
1) Ukraine Solidarity
Fundraisers, community support, volunteer updates.
Tone: strongly positive–empathetic
Engagement: 200+ likes
2) Border Security & Belarus Balloon Incidents
Support for rail dismantling toward Russia; calls for coordinated Baltic airspace response.
Tone: positive on defense, negative on threats
Engagement: 150–250 likes
3) Integration as Civic Duty
“Live here — learn the language” messaging; strict support for enforcement.
Tone: positive–strict
Engagement: 80–120 likes
4) Anti-Kremlin Commentary
Mocking propagandists, highlighting democratic movements.
Tone: sharply negative toward Kremlin; supportive of EU/NATO
Engagement: 150+ likes
Structural Observation: Two Segments, Not One
Russian-language conversations in the Baltics form two separate ecosystems, not a unified bloc:
Cluster A focuses on cultural/language frustration and avoids geopolitics.
Cluster B focuses on Ukraine, security, and civic norms.
Cross-cluster interaction is minimal, meaning aggregated sentiment would be misleading.
The two audiences must be analyzed independently.
Summary Signal
Balts navigate December with holiday optimism, economic irritation, and persistent security awareness.
Latvia’s integration debate becomes the week’s biggest social flashpoint.
Russian-language discussions bifurcate sharply, revealing two different communities rather than a single “minority opinion.”#BalticSocialRadar #BalticFocus #Baltics #Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania #SocialTrends #PublicSentiment #LanguagePolicy #Integration #Security #HybridThreats #UkraineSupport #HolidayTrends #EconomicPressure #BookVAT #MediaFreedom #CulturalHeritage #DigitalPublicSphere
🇪🇪🇱🇹🇱🇻 BALTIC INFLATION SNAPSHOT — November 2025
Latvia · Lithuania · Estonia
(All data: official national statistical offices)
🇱🇻 LATVIA
MoM: –0.3%
YoY: 3.8%
Drivers (MoM):
Transport –1.2% (airfares ↓; fuel +0.6%)
Food –0.5% (coffee –2.3%, fruit –3%, milk –2.8%, poultry –1.6%, juices –6.8%)
Fresh vegetables +9.4%
Personal care +2.0%
YoY highlights:
Food +5.2% (coffee +34%, beef +26.6%, eggs +19.6%, chocolate +17.2%)
Housing +6.2% (electricity +14.2%, rent +6.6%)
Restaurants +5.4%
Transport +2.2%
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA
MoM: +0.4%
YoY: 3.8%
Drivers (MoM):
Housing +1.5% (heat energy +8.2%, liquid fuel +6.7%)
Misc services +2.4% (personal care appliances +8.9%; bank fees +5.4%)
Transport +1.2% (diesel +5.1%; petrol +1.8%)
Food –0.1% (rice –4.3%, pasta –4.9%; seafood +7.6%; sweet paprika +29.6%)
YoY highlights:
Goods +2.9%, services +5.9%
Food +4.3%
Alcohol & tobacco +7.8%
Restaurants/hotels +6.2%
🇪🇪 ESTONIA
MoM: –0.2%
YoY: 4.9% (highest in the Baltics)
Drivers (MoM):
Food +1% (fish +7.7%, cheese +3.3%, bread +2.7%)
Clothing/footwear +1%
Electricity +1.6%
Petrol +8.1%, diesel +10.8% (!!)
Travel services ↓ (holiday trips, airfares, hotels)
YoY highlights:
Food +6.5% (chocolate +27.8%; dairy +8.4%; meat +7.1%)
Health +11.1%
Transport +10.6%
Clothing/footwear –5.7%
🧭 REGIONAL PICTURE (Baltics)
Inflation remains moderate in LV and LT (3.8%), but elevated in EE (4.9%)
Food is the main inflation engine in all three countries
Energy drove Lithuania’s MoM rise; fuel pushed Estonia upward
Latvia saw the largest price correction due to seasonal discounts and cheaper airfares
Services inflation remains structurally higher than goods across the region. #BalticEconomy
#BalticInflation
#Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia
#CPI
Latvia · Lithuania · Estonia
(All data: official national statistical offices)
🇱🇻 LATVIA
MoM: –0.3%
YoY: 3.8%
Drivers (MoM):
Transport –1.2% (airfares ↓; fuel +0.6%)
Food –0.5% (coffee –2.3%, fruit –3%, milk –2.8%, poultry –1.6%, juices –6.8%)
Fresh vegetables +9.4%
Personal care +2.0%
YoY highlights:
Food +5.2% (coffee +34%, beef +26.6%, eggs +19.6%, chocolate +17.2%)
Housing +6.2% (electricity +14.2%, rent +6.6%)
Restaurants +5.4%
Transport +2.2%
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA
MoM: +0.4%
YoY: 3.8%
Drivers (MoM):
Housing +1.5% (heat energy +8.2%, liquid fuel +6.7%)
Misc services +2.4% (personal care appliances +8.9%; bank fees +5.4%)
Transport +1.2% (diesel +5.1%; petrol +1.8%)
Food –0.1% (rice –4.3%, pasta –4.9%; seafood +7.6%; sweet paprika +29.6%)
YoY highlights:
Goods +2.9%, services +5.9%
Food +4.3%
Alcohol & tobacco +7.8%
Restaurants/hotels +6.2%
🇪🇪 ESTONIA
MoM: –0.2%
YoY: 4.9% (highest in the Baltics)
Drivers (MoM):
Food +1% (fish +7.7%, cheese +3.3%, bread +2.7%)
Clothing/footwear +1%
Electricity +1.6%
Petrol +8.1%, diesel +10.8% (!!)
Travel services ↓ (holiday trips, airfares, hotels)
YoY highlights:
Food +6.5% (chocolate +27.8%; dairy +8.4%; meat +7.1%)
Health +11.1%
Transport +10.6%
Clothing/footwear –5.7%
🧭 REGIONAL PICTURE (Baltics)
Inflation remains moderate in LV and LT (3.8%), but elevated in EE (4.9%)
Food is the main inflation engine in all three countries
Energy drove Lithuania’s MoM rise; fuel pushed Estonia upward
Latvia saw the largest price correction due to seasonal discounts and cheaper airfares
Services inflation remains structurally higher than goods across the region. #BalticEconomy
#BalticInflation
#Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia
#CPI
🇪🇺🇱🇻 Belgian CLD Holding teams up with Latvia’s Geedie to build a next-gen European game-trading platform
Belgium’s CLD Holding — operator of 43 Smartoys and Gamecash stores in Belgium, France and French Guiana — has created a joint venture in Latvia with Geedie.com, a Baltic social trading platform for games and consoles. The goal: develop the next-generation Gamecash digital ecosystem for more than 900 000 existing users.
The new Latvia-based company will drive product development and integration into CLD’s infrastructure. A full acquisition of Geedie.com by CLD is also underway.
Geedie currently operates in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, offering over 9000 unique items and enabling peer-to-peer game trading, collections management and community features.
CLD CEO Raphaël Pluta: “The Geedie × CLD partnership is the missing piece in our ecosystem.”
Geedie founder Pāvels Vigovskis: “This gives Geedie access to nearly one million game enthusiasts and opens the way to a new European gaming ecosystem.”
Context:
This is one of the most significant Baltic tech entries into Europe’s gaming retail value chain in recent years. Latvia becomes a development hub for a platform serving a near-million-user market — a rare example of regional digital infrastructure being scaled by a Western European distributor.
BDW © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
Belgium’s CLD Holding — operator of 43 Smartoys and Gamecash stores in Belgium, France and French Guiana — has created a joint venture in Latvia with Geedie.com, a Baltic social trading platform for games and consoles. The goal: develop the next-generation Gamecash digital ecosystem for more than 900 000 existing users.
The new Latvia-based company will drive product development and integration into CLD’s infrastructure. A full acquisition of Geedie.com by CLD is also underway.
Geedie currently operates in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, offering over 9000 unique items and enabling peer-to-peer game trading, collections management and community features.
CLD CEO Raphaël Pluta: “The Geedie × CLD partnership is the missing piece in our ecosystem.”
Geedie founder Pāvels Vigovskis: “This gives Geedie access to nearly one million game enthusiasts and opens the way to a new European gaming ecosystem.”
Context:
This is one of the most significant Baltic tech entries into Europe’s gaming retail value chain in recent years. Latvia becomes a development hub for a platform serving a near-million-user market — a rare example of regional digital infrastructure being scaled by a Western European distributor.
BDW © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪 Baltic job market: vacancies drop across the region, but employment remains stable
Baltic labour markets continued to cool in Q3 2025, with all three states reporting fewer job vacancies year-on-year. Despite this, total employment remains broadly stable, signalling a soft adjustment rather than a downturn.
Lithuanian data are based on the national labour-market monitoring report for October, which provides the most recent comparable indicators for vacancies, sectoral dynamics and unemployment.
🇱🇻 Latvia: sharp vacancy decline, mild employment growth
Latvia recorded 19.2 thousand job vacancies in Q3 (2.1% of all jobs). Vacancies fell 16.1% year-on-year, with the public sector showing the strongest drop (–21.9%).
At the same time, filled jobs increased slightly to 888.5 thousand (+0.3%).
Highest vacancy shares:
public administration – 6.3%,
administrative & support services – 2.9%,
electricity, gas & heating – 2.8%,
transport & storage – 2.5%.
Rīga accounts for the majority of open positions (2.8% of jobs), while Latgale remains structurally weak (1.1%).
🇱🇹 Lithuania: fewer vacancies, demand concentrated in skilled work
Lithuania also shows a double-digit decline in vacancies. At the end of October there were 20.1 thousand open jobs, around 12% less than a year earlier.
Employers registered 14.1 thousand new vacancies during the month – less than in September and below last year’s level.
A key feature of Lithuania’s labour market is the high share of skilled labour demand: about three quarters of newly advertised positions require qualifications.
Sectoral distribution of new vacancies:
manufacturing – ~3.3 thousand,
administrative & support services – ~2.2 thousand,
wholesale & retail – ~1.9 thousand,
construction – ~1.6 thousand,
transport & storage – ~1.5 thousand (highest since last October),
health & social work, education and hospitality – moderate but steady demand.
Vacancies decreased in most sectors except logistics, health & social work, energy and IT – signalling resilience in transport, healthcare and the energy-digital segment.
Regionally, demand remains concentrated in major cities: Vilnius, Kaunas, Šiauliai, Klaipėda.
Registered unemployment in October stood at 8.2%, slightly lower than a year earlier.
🇪🇪 Estonia: modest cooling, steady vacancy rate
Estonia reported 9,375 job vacancies in Q3 2025, down 5.4% year-on-year. The vacancy rate remained at 1.6%, suggesting stability despite reduced hiring appetite.
Sectors with the most open jobs:
education (~2,025 vacancies),
wholesale & retail trade (~1,264).
Manufacturing, trade and education remain the largest employers, matching long-term structural patterns.
Most vacancies are concentrated in Harju County, reflecting Tallinn’s dominant role.
Labour turnover decreased by ~1%, indicating slightly lower hiring and separation rates.
🔎 Regional picture: a synchronised cooling cycle
Across all three countries, the signals are consistent:
📉 Vacancies are falling everywhere
Latvia: –16%
Lithuania: –12%
Estonia: –5%
📊 But employment levels remain stable
Latvia: +0.3%
Lithuania: near-flat employment, with minor year-on-year growth
Estonia: stable total posts, small fluctuations
🏭 Sectoral patterns repeat across the region
Public services are short of people in all three countries (especially Latvia and Estonia).
Manufacturing and logistics show strong demand in Lithuania and stable hiring needs in Estonia.
Transport & storage is a high-demand sector in Latvia and Lithuania.
Education and healthcare appear consistently among vacancy-heavy sectors.
Energy and IT remain pockets of resilience, particularly in Lithuania.
🌍 What it means for 2026
The Baltics are experiencing a soft labour-market correction: employers post fewer vacancies but do not reduce total employment.
Demand is becoming more selective, concentrating in sectors tied to public services, industry, logistics, energy, healthcare and digitalisation.
Baltic labour markets continued to cool in Q3 2025, with all three states reporting fewer job vacancies year-on-year. Despite this, total employment remains broadly stable, signalling a soft adjustment rather than a downturn.
Lithuanian data are based on the national labour-market monitoring report for October, which provides the most recent comparable indicators for vacancies, sectoral dynamics and unemployment.
🇱🇻 Latvia: sharp vacancy decline, mild employment growth
Latvia recorded 19.2 thousand job vacancies in Q3 (2.1% of all jobs). Vacancies fell 16.1% year-on-year, with the public sector showing the strongest drop (–21.9%).
At the same time, filled jobs increased slightly to 888.5 thousand (+0.3%).
Highest vacancy shares:
public administration – 6.3%,
administrative & support services – 2.9%,
electricity, gas & heating – 2.8%,
transport & storage – 2.5%.
Rīga accounts for the majority of open positions (2.8% of jobs), while Latgale remains structurally weak (1.1%).
🇱🇹 Lithuania: fewer vacancies, demand concentrated in skilled work
Lithuania also shows a double-digit decline in vacancies. At the end of October there were 20.1 thousand open jobs, around 12% less than a year earlier.
Employers registered 14.1 thousand new vacancies during the month – less than in September and below last year’s level.
A key feature of Lithuania’s labour market is the high share of skilled labour demand: about three quarters of newly advertised positions require qualifications.
Sectoral distribution of new vacancies:
manufacturing – ~3.3 thousand,
administrative & support services – ~2.2 thousand,
wholesale & retail – ~1.9 thousand,
construction – ~1.6 thousand,
transport & storage – ~1.5 thousand (highest since last October),
health & social work, education and hospitality – moderate but steady demand.
Vacancies decreased in most sectors except logistics, health & social work, energy and IT – signalling resilience in transport, healthcare and the energy-digital segment.
Regionally, demand remains concentrated in major cities: Vilnius, Kaunas, Šiauliai, Klaipėda.
Registered unemployment in October stood at 8.2%, slightly lower than a year earlier.
🇪🇪 Estonia: modest cooling, steady vacancy rate
Estonia reported 9,375 job vacancies in Q3 2025, down 5.4% year-on-year. The vacancy rate remained at 1.6%, suggesting stability despite reduced hiring appetite.
Sectors with the most open jobs:
education (~2,025 vacancies),
wholesale & retail trade (~1,264).
Manufacturing, trade and education remain the largest employers, matching long-term structural patterns.
Most vacancies are concentrated in Harju County, reflecting Tallinn’s dominant role.
Labour turnover decreased by ~1%, indicating slightly lower hiring and separation rates.
🔎 Regional picture: a synchronised cooling cycle
Across all three countries, the signals are consistent:
📉 Vacancies are falling everywhere
Latvia: –16%
Lithuania: –12%
Estonia: –5%
📊 But employment levels remain stable
Latvia: +0.3%
Lithuania: near-flat employment, with minor year-on-year growth
Estonia: stable total posts, small fluctuations
🏭 Sectoral patterns repeat across the region
Public services are short of people in all three countries (especially Latvia and Estonia).
Manufacturing and logistics show strong demand in Lithuania and stable hiring needs in Estonia.
Transport & storage is a high-demand sector in Latvia and Lithuania.
Education and healthcare appear consistently among vacancy-heavy sectors.
Energy and IT remain pockets of resilience, particularly in Lithuania.
🌍 What it means for 2026
The Baltics are experiencing a soft labour-market correction: employers post fewer vacancies but do not reduce total employment.
Demand is becoming more selective, concentrating in sectors tied to public services, industry, logistics, energy, healthcare and digitalisation.
The main challenge ahead: preventing this cooling cycle from widening regional and skills gaps — especially between capital regions and peripheral territories such as Latgale or smaller Lithuanian and Estonian municipalities. #BalticLabour #BalticEconomy #LabourMarket #JobVacancies #Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia #BalticRegion #EmploymentTrends #Workforce #Economy2025 #DataDriven
Hydrogen in the Baltics: Projects, Numbers and Why the Market Is Not Taking Off
(Material 1 in the “Hydrogen vs Biomethane” series)
The EU’s official target remains ambitious: tens of millions of tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030 and a continental hydrogen backbone connecting industrial clusters. But by the end of 2025, Europe’s own regulators describe the market as far behind schedule: production is expensive, electrolysers are deployed far more slowly than planned, and energy companies hesitate to commit without clear rules.
The Baltic region reflects this European reality in a very precise way. It has projects, pilot infrastructure and political declarations — but not a viable hydrogen market. Looking at concrete cases shows why.
1. EU reality: targets vs deployment
Across Europe, hydrogen faces three systemic constraints:
Cost — Green hydrogen remains several times more expensive than fossil alternatives once electricity, balancing and capital costs are included.
Electrolyser scale — Installed capacity by the end of 2024 reached only a fraction of the planned gigawatt-level deployment.
Regulatory uncertainty — Companies face overlapping definitions of “renewable” and “low-carbon” hydrogen, sustainability rules and inconsistent national support schemes.
The gap between political ambition and technological readiness drives a broad market slowdown.
2. Baltic projects: real, but limited in purpose
Klaipėda hydrogen hub
Klaipėda is currently the most advanced hydrogen project in the region. The port is building a production and refuelling facility intended for:
port machinery and trucks,
visiting vessels,
and, from 2026, public hydrogen refuelling.
This is strategically valuable, but its scale is modest. The project is designed to support port operations and early adopters — not to supply industry or export hydrogen.
BalticSeaH2 and the Finnish–Estonian “valley”
The cross-border hydrogen valley centred on Finland and Estonia aims to test production, mobility and industrial use in a coordinated way. It is a research and demonstration platform, not a commercial system. Its purpose is to generate knowledge, validate technologies and map market models, not to deliver large volumes of hydrogen.
3. Fokker Next Gen Latvia: a hydrogen aviation case that never industrialised
The hydrogen aircraft concept promoted in Latvia in 2023–2024 illustrates how far expectations can run ahead of industrial reality.
Latvia expected a production line in Liepāja, cooperation with universities and dozens of engineering jobs.
In practice, the Latvian company behind the project was a small legal entity with minimal capital, no team and no physical activity.
By late 2025, it entered liquidation, and all aviation development work consolidated in the Netherlands.
This case is not a scandal. It shows how hydrogen aviation remains a long-cycle R&D field and why complex aerospace projects naturally gravitate toward ecosystems that already have certification capacity, suppliers and qualified labour.
4. Local hydrogen valleys: infrastructure without a market
Several Baltic cities announced “hydrogen valleys” to support public transport or mobility pilots. The reality is simpler:
hydrogen for buses is almost always produced from natural gas,
retail prices often exceed ten euros per kilogram,
utilisation rates are low,
lifecycle emissions are not better than diesel,
and operating costs remain significantly higher than electric alternatives.
These projects deliver experience and data, but they do not create a sustainable hydrogen economy.
5. Structural constraint: the Baltic electricity balance
Hydrogen is, above all, an electricity product.
Large-scale green hydrogen requires:
A stable surplus of renewable electricity,
Low prices for long operating hours,
Balancing flexibility in the grid.
Baltic electricity systems still face the opposite profile:
Latvia covers only part of its consumption from domestic generation and remains a net importer in most quarters.
Lithuania and Estonia also carry structural deficits on an
(Material 1 in the “Hydrogen vs Biomethane” series)
The EU’s official target remains ambitious: tens of millions of tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030 and a continental hydrogen backbone connecting industrial clusters. But by the end of 2025, Europe’s own regulators describe the market as far behind schedule: production is expensive, electrolysers are deployed far more slowly than planned, and energy companies hesitate to commit without clear rules.
The Baltic region reflects this European reality in a very precise way. It has projects, pilot infrastructure and political declarations — but not a viable hydrogen market. Looking at concrete cases shows why.
1. EU reality: targets vs deployment
Across Europe, hydrogen faces three systemic constraints:
Cost — Green hydrogen remains several times more expensive than fossil alternatives once electricity, balancing and capital costs are included.
Electrolyser scale — Installed capacity by the end of 2024 reached only a fraction of the planned gigawatt-level deployment.
Regulatory uncertainty — Companies face overlapping definitions of “renewable” and “low-carbon” hydrogen, sustainability rules and inconsistent national support schemes.
The gap between political ambition and technological readiness drives a broad market slowdown.
2. Baltic projects: real, but limited in purpose
Klaipėda hydrogen hub
Klaipėda is currently the most advanced hydrogen project in the region. The port is building a production and refuelling facility intended for:
port machinery and trucks,
visiting vessels,
and, from 2026, public hydrogen refuelling.
This is strategically valuable, but its scale is modest. The project is designed to support port operations and early adopters — not to supply industry or export hydrogen.
BalticSeaH2 and the Finnish–Estonian “valley”
The cross-border hydrogen valley centred on Finland and Estonia aims to test production, mobility and industrial use in a coordinated way. It is a research and demonstration platform, not a commercial system. Its purpose is to generate knowledge, validate technologies and map market models, not to deliver large volumes of hydrogen.
3. Fokker Next Gen Latvia: a hydrogen aviation case that never industrialised
The hydrogen aircraft concept promoted in Latvia in 2023–2024 illustrates how far expectations can run ahead of industrial reality.
Latvia expected a production line in Liepāja, cooperation with universities and dozens of engineering jobs.
In practice, the Latvian company behind the project was a small legal entity with minimal capital, no team and no physical activity.
By late 2025, it entered liquidation, and all aviation development work consolidated in the Netherlands.
This case is not a scandal. It shows how hydrogen aviation remains a long-cycle R&D field and why complex aerospace projects naturally gravitate toward ecosystems that already have certification capacity, suppliers and qualified labour.
4. Local hydrogen valleys: infrastructure without a market
Several Baltic cities announced “hydrogen valleys” to support public transport or mobility pilots. The reality is simpler:
hydrogen for buses is almost always produced from natural gas,
retail prices often exceed ten euros per kilogram,
utilisation rates are low,
lifecycle emissions are not better than diesel,
and operating costs remain significantly higher than electric alternatives.
These projects deliver experience and data, but they do not create a sustainable hydrogen economy.
5. Structural constraint: the Baltic electricity balance
Hydrogen is, above all, an electricity product.
Large-scale green hydrogen requires:
A stable surplus of renewable electricity,
Low prices for long operating hours,
Balancing flexibility in the grid.
Baltic electricity systems still face the opposite profile:
Latvia covers only part of its consumption from domestic generation and remains a net importer in most quarters.
Lithuania and Estonia also carry structural deficits on an
Baltic Trade in October: Latvia slows, Estonia accelerates, Lithuania slips
Core facts
🇱🇻 Latvia:
• Foreign trade turnover reached €3.9bn (+2.5% y-o-y).
• Exports: €1.81bn (+2.2%), imports: €2.10bn (+2.9%).
• Export growth driven by minerals (+17%), transport equipment (+27%), electronics (+7%), food (+10%).
• Sharp decline in agricultural exports (-25%), especially cereals (-28%).
• Trade deficit widened slightly as export share slipped from 46.5% → 46.3%.
• Strongest partners: Lithuania (18.4%), Estonia (11%), Germany (6.6%).
• Imports from Russia collapsed –85%, exports to Russia rose modestly +1.5% (food products).
🇪🇪 Estonia:
• Exports €1.72bn (+5%), imports €2.05bn (+4%), deficit €323m (slightly lower y-o-y).
• Goods of Estonian origin fell –3%, while re-exports jumped +19% — mainly mineral products and agri-food goods.
• Biggest rises: minerals (+21%), machinery (+15%).
• Exports to the US dropped sharply (-35%), continuing a multi-month decline.
• Top partners: Finland (14%), Latvia (13%), Sweden (9%).
• Imports up for agri-food (+8%), down for transport equipment (-17%).
🇱🇹 Lithuania:
• Exports €3.21bn (-0.6%), imports €3.71bn (-0.1%); deficit €504.7m.
• Goods of Lithuanian origin: -1.3% y-o-y; excluding mineral products: -3.8%.
• Largest export drops came from oil seeds (-67%) and chemical products (-21%).
• Imports fell mainly due to mineral fuels (-29%) and organic chemicals (-59%).
• January–October: exports -1.1%, imports +4.5%; structural pressure from rising machinery and transport equipment imports.
Context
Baltic trade in October shows three diverging dynamics:
• Latvia posts moderate growth driven by manufactured goods and minerals, but agriculture weakens.
• Estonia grows on re-exports, masking the slowdown in domestic-origin goods — a structural shift visible for several months.
• Lithuania enters mild contraction, pulled down by volatility in mineral and agricultural commodities.
Across the region, machinery, electronics and transport equipment remain the strongest import drivers — signalling continued industrial upgrading but widening trade gaps.
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
Core facts
🇱🇻 Latvia:
• Foreign trade turnover reached €3.9bn (+2.5% y-o-y).
• Exports: €1.81bn (+2.2%), imports: €2.10bn (+2.9%).
• Export growth driven by minerals (+17%), transport equipment (+27%), electronics (+7%), food (+10%).
• Sharp decline in agricultural exports (-25%), especially cereals (-28%).
• Trade deficit widened slightly as export share slipped from 46.5% → 46.3%.
• Strongest partners: Lithuania (18.4%), Estonia (11%), Germany (6.6%).
• Imports from Russia collapsed –85%, exports to Russia rose modestly +1.5% (food products).
🇪🇪 Estonia:
• Exports €1.72bn (+5%), imports €2.05bn (+4%), deficit €323m (slightly lower y-o-y).
• Goods of Estonian origin fell –3%, while re-exports jumped +19% — mainly mineral products and agri-food goods.
• Biggest rises: minerals (+21%), machinery (+15%).
• Exports to the US dropped sharply (-35%), continuing a multi-month decline.
• Top partners: Finland (14%), Latvia (13%), Sweden (9%).
• Imports up for agri-food (+8%), down for transport equipment (-17%).
🇱🇹 Lithuania:
• Exports €3.21bn (-0.6%), imports €3.71bn (-0.1%); deficit €504.7m.
• Goods of Lithuanian origin: -1.3% y-o-y; excluding mineral products: -3.8%.
• Largest export drops came from oil seeds (-67%) and chemical products (-21%).
• Imports fell mainly due to mineral fuels (-29%) and organic chemicals (-59%).
• January–October: exports -1.1%, imports +4.5%; structural pressure from rising machinery and transport equipment imports.
Context
Baltic trade in October shows three diverging dynamics:
• Latvia posts moderate growth driven by manufactured goods and minerals, but agriculture weakens.
• Estonia grows on re-exports, masking the slowdown in domestic-origin goods — a structural shift visible for several months.
• Lithuania enters mild contraction, pulled down by volatility in mineral and agricultural commodities.
Across the region, machinery, electronics and transport equipment remain the strongest import drivers — signalling continued industrial upgrading but widening trade gaps.
BSM © 2025 | balticfocus.org #balticfocus
🇱🇻 Latvia buys 9 battery trains — what the Baltic passenger fleet looks like
Latvia has signed an €89.4M contract with Škoda Group for nine battery-electric trains (BEMU), with delivery by 2029.
The units will replace ageing diesel trains on the Daugavpils and Cēsis corridors, with an option for seven more.
Against this backdrop, here is the current passenger fleet across the Baltic region:
🇪🇪 Estonia — Elron
Main rolling stock:
• Stadler FLIRT (electric & diesel) — the backbone of Estonia’s passenger network, operating on all key routes (Tallinn–Tartu, Tallinn–Narva, Pärnu region).
• New Škoda EMUs (16 units) — entering service from 2025, replacing older stock on electrified lines.
📌 Estonia is the only Baltic state that has already phased out old Soviet-era diesel trains — the fleet is the most unified in the region.
🇱🇹 Lithuania — LTG Link
Main rolling stock:
• Pesa 730ML — diesel sets used on long intercity routes (Vilnius–Klaipėda, Vilnius–Šiauliai–Riga).
• Škoda EJ575 EMUs — serving the Vilnius–Kaunas electrified corridor.
• Stadler FLIRT (electric/hybrid) — expanding the fleet and gradually becoming the regional standard.
📌 Lithuania is the only Baltic country where major intercity lines still rely primarily on diesel traction.
🇱🇻 Latvia — Vivi / ATD
Main rolling stock:
• Škoda 16Ev EMUs (32 units) — new electric trains operating on Riga’s electrified corridors (Aizkraukle, Tukums, Jelgava, Sigulda).
• Legacy DR1A diesel units (1980–1992) — currently serving non-electrified routes (Riga–Daugavpils, Riga–Rēzekne, Riga–Valmiera).
• New Škoda BEMU fleet (9 + option for 7) — to begin replacing diesel trains from 2029, covering the Daugavpils and Cēsis corridors.
📌 Latvia becomes the first Baltic state to introduce a battery-train fleet as an alternative to large-scale electrification.
🛤 Trans-Baltic Corridor (Tallinn–Riga–Vilnius)
Passengers today travel on a combined three-operator chain with transfers:
• Elron FLIRT — Tallinn → Valga
• Vivi / Pesa 730ML — Valga → Riga
• LTG Link Pesa 730ML — Riga → Vilnius
A unified ticket exists, but no through-running train yet.
🔎 Three countries — three strategies
• Estonia: fleet modernisation + Stadler standardisation → almost fully renewed fleet.
• Lithuania: mixed fleet; diesel remains dominant on long-distance lines.
• Latvia: EMUs + shift toward battery operation instead of full electrification.
📌 Latvia’s BEMU order reinforces a shared regional trend: the Baltics are moving away from diesel, but each country follows a different technological path — electrification, unification, or battery hybridisation.#BalticFocus #Transport #RailBaltics #Latvia #Estonia #Lithuania #Škoda #BEMU #Vivi #Elron #LTGLink #EnergyTransition #Mobility
Latvia has signed an €89.4M contract with Škoda Group for nine battery-electric trains (BEMU), with delivery by 2029.
The units will replace ageing diesel trains on the Daugavpils and Cēsis corridors, with an option for seven more.
Against this backdrop, here is the current passenger fleet across the Baltic region:
🇪🇪 Estonia — Elron
Main rolling stock:
• Stadler FLIRT (electric & diesel) — the backbone of Estonia’s passenger network, operating on all key routes (Tallinn–Tartu, Tallinn–Narva, Pärnu region).
• New Škoda EMUs (16 units) — entering service from 2025, replacing older stock on electrified lines.
📌 Estonia is the only Baltic state that has already phased out old Soviet-era diesel trains — the fleet is the most unified in the region.
🇱🇹 Lithuania — LTG Link
Main rolling stock:
• Pesa 730ML — diesel sets used on long intercity routes (Vilnius–Klaipėda, Vilnius–Šiauliai–Riga).
• Škoda EJ575 EMUs — serving the Vilnius–Kaunas electrified corridor.
• Stadler FLIRT (electric/hybrid) — expanding the fleet and gradually becoming the regional standard.
📌 Lithuania is the only Baltic country where major intercity lines still rely primarily on diesel traction.
🇱🇻 Latvia — Vivi / ATD
Main rolling stock:
• Škoda 16Ev EMUs (32 units) — new electric trains operating on Riga’s electrified corridors (Aizkraukle, Tukums, Jelgava, Sigulda).
• Legacy DR1A diesel units (1980–1992) — currently serving non-electrified routes (Riga–Daugavpils, Riga–Rēzekne, Riga–Valmiera).
• New Škoda BEMU fleet (9 + option for 7) — to begin replacing diesel trains from 2029, covering the Daugavpils and Cēsis corridors.
📌 Latvia becomes the first Baltic state to introduce a battery-train fleet as an alternative to large-scale electrification.
🛤 Trans-Baltic Corridor (Tallinn–Riga–Vilnius)
Passengers today travel on a combined three-operator chain with transfers:
• Elron FLIRT — Tallinn → Valga
• Vivi / Pesa 730ML — Valga → Riga
• LTG Link Pesa 730ML — Riga → Vilnius
A unified ticket exists, but no through-running train yet.
🔎 Three countries — three strategies
• Estonia: fleet modernisation + Stadler standardisation → almost fully renewed fleet.
• Lithuania: mixed fleet; diesel remains dominant on long-distance lines.
• Latvia: EMUs + shift toward battery operation instead of full electrification.
📌 Latvia’s BEMU order reinforces a shared regional trend: the Baltics are moving away from diesel, but each country follows a different technological path — electrification, unification, or battery hybridisation.#BalticFocus #Transport #RailBaltics #Latvia #Estonia #Lithuania #Škoda #BEMU #Vivi #Elron #LTGLink #EnergyTransition #Mobility
🚆 Elron starts operating Stadler FLIRT trains on Latvian railways
Elron has received approval from the European Rail Agency (ERA) to operate Stadler FLIRT diesel trains on Latvia’s rail network. The Tallinn–Riga route will begin on January 12, 2026.
Route details:
Train departure from Tallinn: 14:50
Arrival in Riga: 20:52
Ticket price (Tartu–Riga): 19–22 EUR
First daily service with one departure, increasing after infrastructure work is completed.
The route will operate in cooperation with Latvia’s Pasažieru vilciens.
The service aims to improve connectivity and bring more cross-border travel options.
#BalticFocus #Elron #Railway #PublicTransport #StadlerFLIRT #Latvia #Estonia #Travel
Elron has received approval from the European Rail Agency (ERA) to operate Stadler FLIRT diesel trains on Latvia’s rail network. The Tallinn–Riga route will begin on January 12, 2026.
Route details:
Train departure from Tallinn: 14:50
Arrival in Riga: 20:52
Ticket price (Tartu–Riga): 19–22 EUR
First daily service with one departure, increasing after infrastructure work is completed.
The route will operate in cooperation with Latvia’s Pasažieru vilciens.
The service aims to improve connectivity and bring more cross-border travel options.
#BalticFocus #Elron #Railway #PublicTransport #StadlerFLIRT #Latvia #Estonia #Travel
🇱🇹 Real Estate | Retail
Tewox completes €8m retail park project in Utena
Investment company AB Tewox has completed an €8 million retail park in Utena, Lithuania.
The first tenant, grocery chain IKI, starts operating on 12 December. Sinsay and Žalia stotelė are expected to open shortly.
Key facts:
Total leasable area: ~3,200 sqm
Developer: UAB Janonio 27, managed by AB Tewox
One of Tewox’s first active development projects to become operational
Three additional projects across Lithuania planned to open in H1 2026
Context:
Mid-sized retail parks remain one of the most resilient commercial real estate formats in regional Lithuania, combining grocery anchors with non-food tenants.
#BalticFocus #Lithuania #RealEstate #Retail #Tewox #Investment #CommercialProperty
Tewox completes €8m retail park project in Utena
Investment company AB Tewox has completed an €8 million retail park in Utena, Lithuania.
The first tenant, grocery chain IKI, starts operating on 12 December. Sinsay and Žalia stotelė are expected to open shortly.
Key facts:
Total leasable area: ~3,200 sqm
Developer: UAB Janonio 27, managed by AB Tewox
One of Tewox’s first active development projects to become operational
Three additional projects across Lithuania planned to open in H1 2026
Context:
Mid-sized retail parks remain one of the most resilient commercial real estate formats in regional Lithuania, combining grocery anchors with non-food tenants.
#BalticFocus #Lithuania #RealEstate #Retail #Tewox #Investment #CommercialProperty
🇱🇹 Insurance | Lithuania
Lithuanian Competition Council approves ERGO–Gjensidige deal with conditions
Lithuania’s Competition Council has approved Munich Re’s indirect acquisition of Lithuania’s Gjensidige via ERGO International, subject to divestment conditions.
Key facts:
The authority required sale of the carriers’ civil liability (CMR) insurance portfolio to avoid excessive concentration in the low-premium segment.
The buyer approved by the regulator is If P&C Insurance (Estonia).
Munich Re must:
transfer all relevant contracts to an independent buyer,
keep contract value and scope unchanged until transfer,
not compete for transferred clients for two years,
provide transitional services and report compliance.
The regulator concluded that these commitments remove negative effects on competition.
Background:
ERGO announced the acquisition of Gjensidige’s Baltic business in July 2024.
Lithuania’s central bank approved the deal earlier.
Lithuania’s Gjensidige posted €4m net profit in 2023 (after a €17m loss in 2022) on €143.4m insurance revenue (+11.6% YoY).
#BalticFocus #Insurance #Lithuania #Competition #ERGO #MunichRe #Gjensidige #Mergers
Lithuanian Competition Council approves ERGO–Gjensidige deal with conditions
Lithuania’s Competition Council has approved Munich Re’s indirect acquisition of Lithuania’s Gjensidige via ERGO International, subject to divestment conditions.
Key facts:
The authority required sale of the carriers’ civil liability (CMR) insurance portfolio to avoid excessive concentration in the low-premium segment.
The buyer approved by the regulator is If P&C Insurance (Estonia).
Munich Re must:
transfer all relevant contracts to an independent buyer,
keep contract value and scope unchanged until transfer,
not compete for transferred clients for two years,
provide transitional services and report compliance.
The regulator concluded that these commitments remove negative effects on competition.
Background:
ERGO announced the acquisition of Gjensidige’s Baltic business in July 2024.
Lithuania’s central bank approved the deal earlier.
Lithuania’s Gjensidige posted €4m net profit in 2023 (after a €17m loss in 2022) on €143.4m insurance revenue (+11.6% YoY).
#BalticFocus #Insurance #Lithuania #Competition #ERGO #MunichRe #Gjensidige #Mergers
🇱🇻🇸🇪🇫🇮 Food Industry | Competition
Lantmännen consolidates the bakery chain in the Baltics: from ingredients to bread
Sweden’s Lantmännen ek för is expanding its control across the Baltic bakery market by moving upstream into ingredients. The group has filed to acquire Leipurin Oyj (Finland) and Kebelco AB (Sweden), both key B2B suppliers of bakery ingredients and frozen bake-off products.
Why this matters for Latvia:
Lantmännen already controls bakery production in the region through Leibur AS (Estonia), which in turn owns AS “Hanzas maiznīca” — a major industrial bakery supplying Latvian retail chains. The planned acquisition would therefore link ingredients supply and industrial baking under the same owner.
According to Latvia’s Competition Council, the transaction creates horizontal and vertical overlaps in Latvia, particularly in:
frozen bake-off bakery products,
wholesale supply of bakery ingredients,
supplies to in-store bakeries and foodservice segments.
The regulator has one month to decide on the merger, or up to four months if a deeper investigation is launched. Market participants may submit comments until 19 December 2025.
Context:
The deal illustrates a broader trend of vertical integration in food production, where large agricultural groups seek tighter control over the full value chain — from raw materials to retail shelves.#BalticFocus
#FoodIndustry
#Competition
#Baltics
Lantmännen consolidates the bakery chain in the Baltics: from ingredients to bread
Sweden’s Lantmännen ek för is expanding its control across the Baltic bakery market by moving upstream into ingredients. The group has filed to acquire Leipurin Oyj (Finland) and Kebelco AB (Sweden), both key B2B suppliers of bakery ingredients and frozen bake-off products.
Why this matters for Latvia:
Lantmännen already controls bakery production in the region through Leibur AS (Estonia), which in turn owns AS “Hanzas maiznīca” — a major industrial bakery supplying Latvian retail chains. The planned acquisition would therefore link ingredients supply and industrial baking under the same owner.
According to Latvia’s Competition Council, the transaction creates horizontal and vertical overlaps in Latvia, particularly in:
frozen bake-off bakery products,
wholesale supply of bakery ingredients,
supplies to in-store bakeries and foodservice segments.
The regulator has one month to decide on the merger, or up to four months if a deeper investigation is launched. Market participants may submit comments until 19 December 2025.
Context:
The deal illustrates a broader trend of vertical integration in food production, where large agricultural groups seek tighter control over the full value chain — from raw materials to retail shelves.#BalticFocus
#FoodIndustry
#Competition
#Baltics
🇱🇻 Ports | Competition
Stena Line consolidates ferry operations in Liepāja
Latvia’s Competition Council (KP) has approved AS Stena Line Ports Ventspils acquiring decisive control over Liepāja SEZ port operator TERRABALT.
Why this matters:
Stena Line is currently Latvia’s only remaining regular Ro-Pax ferry operator, running services on the Liepāja–Travemünde (Germany) and Ventspils–Nynäshamn (Sweden) routes. TERRABALT operates the Ro-Ro / Ro-Pax terminal infrastructure in Liepāja that serves these ferry operations.
As a result, the transaction effectively concentrates ferry traffic and terminal infrastructure in Liepāja under Stena Line, explaining regulatory attention despite the limited size of the asset.
According to KP, the merger does not alter market structure, reduce competition or create dominance in any relevant Latvian market and was therefore approved without conditions.#BalticFocus
#Ports
#Competition
Stena Line consolidates ferry operations in Liepāja
Latvia’s Competition Council (KP) has approved AS Stena Line Ports Ventspils acquiring decisive control over Liepāja SEZ port operator TERRABALT.
Why this matters:
Stena Line is currently Latvia’s only remaining regular Ro-Pax ferry operator, running services on the Liepāja–Travemünde (Germany) and Ventspils–Nynäshamn (Sweden) routes. TERRABALT operates the Ro-Ro / Ro-Pax terminal infrastructure in Liepāja that serves these ferry operations.
As a result, the transaction effectively concentrates ferry traffic and terminal infrastructure in Liepāja under Stena Line, explaining regulatory attention despite the limited size of the asset.
According to KP, the merger does not alter market structure, reduce competition or create dominance in any relevant Latvian market and was therefore approved without conditions.#BalticFocus
#Ports
#Competition
🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪 Baltic Grocery Index — mid-December price snapshot
(10 essential products, baseline prices)
🇱🇻 LATVIA
Milk 1L — 0.75
Bread 300g — 0.39
Eggs (10) — 2.19
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.99
Pork shoulder 1kg — 5.69
Potatoes 1kg — 0.19
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.99
Rice 800g — 1.19
Sugar 1kg — 0.75
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA
Milk 1L — 0.65
Bread 300g — 0.34
Eggs (10) — 2.15
Chicken fillet 1kg — 7.29
Pork shoulder 1kg — 5.49
Potatoes 1kg — 0.49
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.54
Rice 800g — 0.95
Sugar 1kg — 0.89
🇪🇪 ESTONIA
Milk 1L — 0.59
Bread 300g — 0.43
Eggs (10) — 1.69–2.39
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.58
Pork shoulder 1kg — 9.29
Potatoes 1kg — 0.39
Carrots 1kg — 0.45
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.59–1.79
Rice 800g — 0.39–0.49
Sugar 1kg — 0.59
📌 Prices observed at Rimi and Maxima/Barbora. Non-promotional baselines used where available. Imported protein lines monitored separately.
Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
(10 essential products, baseline prices)
🇱🇻 LATVIA
Milk 1L — 0.75
Bread 300g — 0.39
Eggs (10) — 2.19
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.99
Pork shoulder 1kg — 5.69
Potatoes 1kg — 0.19
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.99
Rice 800g — 1.19
Sugar 1kg — 0.75
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA
Milk 1L — 0.65
Bread 300g — 0.34
Eggs (10) — 2.15
Chicken fillet 1kg — 7.29
Pork shoulder 1kg — 5.49
Potatoes 1kg — 0.49
Carrots 1kg — 0.65
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.54
Rice 800g — 0.95
Sugar 1kg — 0.89
🇪🇪 ESTONIA
Milk 1L — 0.59
Bread 300g — 0.43
Eggs (10) — 1.69–2.39
Chicken fillet 1kg — 6.58
Pork shoulder 1kg — 9.29
Potatoes 1kg — 0.39
Carrots 1kg — 0.45
Sunflower oil 1L — 1.59–1.79
Rice 800g — 0.39–0.49
Sugar 1kg — 0.59
📌 Prices observed at Rimi and Maxima/Barbora. Non-promotional baselines used where available. Imported protein lines monitored separately.
Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪 Baltic Grocery Index — current week (mid-December snapshot)
Latvia — stable
Prices remain largely unchanged across the basket. Earlier meat price easing has already been absorbed, while eggs sit at the lower end of the normal range. Vegetables and staples show no new movement. Latvia continues to act as a stability anchor in the region.
Lithuania — low but uneven
Lithuania keeps one of the lowest overall baskets, supported by competitive protein prices. At the same time, availability issues persist in some basic SKUs, forcing occasional shifts to higher-priced packaged alternatives. The basket remains cheap, but composition matters.
Estonia — volatile, but easing
After last week’s increase driven by pork and eggs, prices are now showing signs of normalization. Eggs and poultry are cheaper again, while vegetables, milk and rice stay at the lowest regional levels. Local pork remains expensive, though imported alternatives appear regularly and are being monitored separately.
Baltic trend:
This week shows consolidation rather than direction. Latvia stays balanced, Lithuania remains structurally cheap with assortment effects, and Estonia continues to display the strongest price volatility in protein categories. Rice and milk still mark the widest structural gap between Estonia and its neighbors.
Analytical conclusions and seasonal assessment will be made after 19 December.Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
Latvia — stable
Prices remain largely unchanged across the basket. Earlier meat price easing has already been absorbed, while eggs sit at the lower end of the normal range. Vegetables and staples show no new movement. Latvia continues to act as a stability anchor in the region.
Lithuania — low but uneven
Lithuania keeps one of the lowest overall baskets, supported by competitive protein prices. At the same time, availability issues persist in some basic SKUs, forcing occasional shifts to higher-priced packaged alternatives. The basket remains cheap, but composition matters.
Estonia — volatile, but easing
After last week’s increase driven by pork and eggs, prices are now showing signs of normalization. Eggs and poultry are cheaper again, while vegetables, milk and rice stay at the lowest regional levels. Local pork remains expensive, though imported alternatives appear regularly and are being monitored separately.
Baltic trend:
This week shows consolidation rather than direction. Latvia stays balanced, Lithuania remains structurally cheap with assortment effects, and Estonia continues to display the strongest price volatility in protein categories. Rice and milk still mark the widest structural gap between Estonia and its neighbors.
Analytical conclusions and seasonal assessment will be made after 19 December.Baltic Shift Map © 2025 | balticfocus.org
📰 💶 Estonia faces costs if EU freezes Russian assets indefinitely
The European Council is expected to vote next week on converting the current six-month freeze of Russian assets in the EU into an indefinite regime. The move would allow the EU to use the frozen assets as collateral for a long-term loan to Ukraine, estimated at €100–150bn, backed by around €210bn in immobilised Russian funds.
According to European Parliament member Jaak Madison, if the assets are not ultimately confiscated, EU member states would have to repay the loan from their own budgets. He estimates Estonia’s potential share at €400–450m in a favourable scenario and up to €1bn in a negative one. Madison added that Russia holds far fewer European assets that could be seized in response, with estimates ranging from €20–30bn.
Another Estonian MEP, Riho Terras, said the decision would test Europe’s ability to act as an independent geopolitical actor. He noted that the outcome would largely depend on Germany’s position. Hungary and Slovakia have signalled opposition, while Belgium and Italy have raised legal concerns. Approval requires the support of at least two-thirds of EU member states.
Context:
Since 2022, the EU has frozen Russian state assets under sanctions, renewing the measure every six months due to legal constraints. Making the freeze indefinite would remove renewal risks and enable long-term financial planning for Ukraine, but would also shift part of the financial risk to EU budgets, including smaller member states such as Estonia. The vote reflects a broader EU debate on burden-sharing, legal exposure and the use of sanctioned assets in prolonged conflicts.
#BalticFocus #Estonia #EU #RussiaSanctions #Ukraine #PublicFinance
The European Council is expected to vote next week on converting the current six-month freeze of Russian assets in the EU into an indefinite regime. The move would allow the EU to use the frozen assets as collateral for a long-term loan to Ukraine, estimated at €100–150bn, backed by around €210bn in immobilised Russian funds.
According to European Parliament member Jaak Madison, if the assets are not ultimately confiscated, EU member states would have to repay the loan from their own budgets. He estimates Estonia’s potential share at €400–450m in a favourable scenario and up to €1bn in a negative one. Madison added that Russia holds far fewer European assets that could be seized in response, with estimates ranging from €20–30bn.
Another Estonian MEP, Riho Terras, said the decision would test Europe’s ability to act as an independent geopolitical actor. He noted that the outcome would largely depend on Germany’s position. Hungary and Slovakia have signalled opposition, while Belgium and Italy have raised legal concerns. Approval requires the support of at least two-thirds of EU member states.
Context:
Since 2022, the EU has frozen Russian state assets under sanctions, renewing the measure every six months due to legal constraints. Making the freeze indefinite would remove renewal risks and enable long-term financial planning for Ukraine, but would also shift part of the financial risk to EU budgets, including smaller member states such as Estonia. The vote reflects a broader EU debate on burden-sharing, legal exposure and the use of sanctioned assets in prolonged conflicts.
#BalticFocus #Estonia #EU #RussiaSanctions #Ukraine #PublicFinance