Forwarded from Doomsday shortages
vxTwitter / fixvx
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SARS‑CoV‑2 (COVID-19) (@COVID19_disease)
🚨 JUST IN: Taiwan Confirms First Local Human Case of H7 Bird Flu Bird-to-Human Transmission Detected
33 close contacts identified; some receiving preventive antivirals as authorities monitor for further spread.
33 close contacts identified; some receiving preventive antivirals as authorities monitor for further spread.
Forwarded from Doomsday shortages
vxTwitter / fixvx
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Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_)
Jeff Currie reminded everyone once again:
“The supply shock [now] is almost equal to the demand shock during Covid, and we know what that did to global supply chains.”
We know oil had to go to -$34 to clear that
Not one for fractals, but if he's correct…
“The supply shock [now] is almost equal to the demand shock during Covid, and we know what that did to global supply chains.”
We know oil had to go to -$34 to clear that
Not one for fractals, but if he's correct…
❤1
Forwarded from Doomsday shortages
Here is Grok’s explanation of Curries view on how this will end up playing out:
How demand actually “falls” in practice (Currie’s multi-commodity view)
1. Price rationing (primary channel): Oil at $120–150+ (or higher) chokes off marginal demand — airlines cut flights, truckers idle rigs, petrochemical plants shut, refiners run lower. That’s the quantity demanded falling to match the trapped supply. Currie: “There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude — none.”
2. Hoarding & cascading shortages amplify the pain: Buyers (Asia refiners, utilities, governments) start stockpiling the molecules they can get. That pulls even more supply off the market short-term, so effective demand rises temporarily before the price signal finally bites. He noted ships in wrong places, insurance cancellations — “the damage is going to take months to unwind.”
3. Broader demand destruction: Because it’s not just crude — it’s LNG, fertilizers, metals, petrochemicals — the shock ripples into food prices, manufacturing, power generation. That can trigger a self-reinforcing recession that shifts the entire demand curve left (exactly what happened on the upside in reverse during COVID stimulus).
4. Policy can’t magic molecules: IEA SPR releases, OPEC spare capacity, or even U.S. export bans are “miniscule” relative to 18–20 mb/d trapped for months. Currie explicitly called the SPR max flow rate offset tiny.
Bottom line from Currie’s two appearances
The market will balance — but not painlessly. Demand doesn’t voluntarily “fall”; it gets forced down by triple-digit prices, regional shortages, and eventual economic slowdown. That’s why he’s so bullish on the physical commodities complex and why he keeps stressing that paper traders are still missing the scale of this supply shock.
In short: yes, demand has to match the disrupted supply. The only questions are (1) how high prices go before it happens and (2) how much collateral economic damage occurs in the process. Currie’s view is that both numbers are being badly underestimated right now.
How demand actually “falls” in practice (Currie’s multi-commodity view)
1. Price rationing (primary channel): Oil at $120–150+ (or higher) chokes off marginal demand — airlines cut flights, truckers idle rigs, petrochemical plants shut, refiners run lower. That’s the quantity demanded falling to match the trapped supply. Currie: “There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude — none.”
2. Hoarding & cascading shortages amplify the pain: Buyers (Asia refiners, utilities, governments) start stockpiling the molecules they can get. That pulls even more supply off the market short-term, so effective demand rises temporarily before the price signal finally bites. He noted ships in wrong places, insurance cancellations — “the damage is going to take months to unwind.”
3. Broader demand destruction: Because it’s not just crude — it’s LNG, fertilizers, metals, petrochemicals — the shock ripples into food prices, manufacturing, power generation. That can trigger a self-reinforcing recession that shifts the entire demand curve left (exactly what happened on the upside in reverse during COVID stimulus).
4. Policy can’t magic molecules: IEA SPR releases, OPEC spare capacity, or even U.S. export bans are “miniscule” relative to 18–20 mb/d trapped for months. Currie explicitly called the SPR max flow rate offset tiny.
Bottom line from Currie’s two appearances
The market will balance — but not painlessly. Demand doesn’t voluntarily “fall”; it gets forced down by triple-digit prices, regional shortages, and eventual economic slowdown. That’s why he’s so bullish on the physical commodities complex and why he keeps stressing that paper traders are still missing the scale of this supply shock.
In short: yes, demand has to match the disrupted supply. The only questions are (1) how high prices go before it happens and (2) how much collateral economic damage occurs in the process. Currie’s view is that both numbers are being badly underestimated right now.
Forwarded from Doomsday shortages
Its looking like the world is gonna get weird again.
Prices of things like ammo, batteries, generators could shoot up, in a week when the NeWs 🤡starts talking about it.
Twitter is pretty much a week ahead
Prices of things like ammo, batteries, generators could shoot up, in a week when the NeWs 🤡starts talking about it.
Twitter is pretty much a week ahead
Forwarded from Fireworks Daily Team 2.0 (Mezlim)
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
✍️
If your GPS failed right now… would you actually know how to get home?
Most people rely completely on their phones—but the truth is, the United States highway system was designed as a grid. And once you understand how it works, you can navigate from anywhere using nothing but road signs.
Odd-numbered highways run north and south.
Even-numbered highways run east and west.
And the numbers themselves? They tell you exactly where you are.
This isn’t just random knowledge—this is real-world navigation that works when everything else doesn’t.
Because being prepared isn’t just about what you carry…
it’s about what you know.
If your GPS failed right now… would you actually know how to get home?
Most people rely completely on their phones—but the truth is, the United States highway system was designed as a grid. And once you understand how it works, you can navigate from anywhere using nothing but road signs.
Odd-numbered highways run north and south.
Even-numbered highways run east and west.
And the numbers themselves? They tell you exactly where you are.
This isn’t just random knowledge—this is real-world navigation that works when everything else doesn’t.
Because being prepared isn’t just about what you carry…
it’s about what you know.
❤3
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
The Iran war is hitting American wallets and it's only getting started...
Gas at $4.09 and climbing.
Diesel at $5.53. Mortgage rates up five straight weeks. Airlines hiking fares 24%.
USPS slapping 8% surcharges on packages.
Amazon adding fuel fees for sellers that will get passed straight to you.
A third of Americans already cut spending because of fuel costs alone.
And none of this is the full impact yet.
Economists say the real pain is still working its way through the system.
First-time homebuyers who were already stretched are watching monthly payments climb out of reach.
November is seven months away.
Every week the Strait stays closed, these numbers get worse.
The White House says the pain is temporary.
American families making hard choices at the pump and the grocery store aren't thinking in geopolitical timelines.
They're thinking about next month's rent.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Gas at $4.09 and climbing.
Diesel at $5.53. Mortgage rates up five straight weeks. Airlines hiking fares 24%.
USPS slapping 8% surcharges on packages.
Amazon adding fuel fees for sellers that will get passed straight to you.
A third of Americans already cut spending because of fuel costs alone.
And none of this is the full impact yet.
Economists say the real pain is still working its way through the system.
First-time homebuyers who were already stretched are watching monthly payments climb out of reach.
November is seven months away.
Every week the Strait stays closed, these numbers get worse.
The White House says the pain is temporary.
American families making hard choices at the pump and the grocery store aren't thinking in geopolitical timelines.
They're thinking about next month's rent.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
❤2
Forwarded from Stella
Look at all of these countries already rationing fuel.
Energy crisis ➡️ Food crisis
Energy crisis ➡️ Food crisis
Forwarded from Doomsday shortages
‼️🇪🇺🇷🇺Europe is preparing for an energy crisis due to the US-Iran war and is discussing resource purchases from Russia, - El País.
▪️The European Union is hastily preparing for an energy crisis due to the conflict in the Middle East, writes the Spanish newspaper El País.
▪️EU countries are raising the issue of resuming direct purchases of oil and gas from Russia.
▪️Brussels is proposing: banning air conditioners below a certain temperature threshold, encouraging remote working, and restricting flights and travel.
▪️The European Union is hastily preparing for an energy crisis due to the conflict in the Middle East, writes the Spanish newspaper El País.
▪️EU countries are raising the issue of resuming direct purchases of oil and gas from Russia.
▪️Brussels is proposing: banning air conditioners below a certain temperature threshold, encouraging remote working, and restricting flights and travel.
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