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@MarioNawfal 🇲🇽 CJNG leader “El Mencho” was allegedly alive when placed on a SEDENA aircraft and was dead by the time the aircraft landed.
No one can explain why, but rumors are spreading fast.
https://t.co/4Y4oMEUopp 🔖📤⚡️
No one can explain why, but rumors are spreading fast.
https://t.co/4Y4oMEUopp 🔖📤⚡️
❤3👍1
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@e_consulta 🔈Un operador de un autobus que viaja de la #Tapo a #Puebla informó a los pasajeros que en caso de encontrar bloqueos la tarde de este domingo hay que descender el autobus y correr.
Vía @DanielC86146944 https://t.co/9MfINRB5Ik 🔖📤⚡️
Vía @DanielC86146944 https://t.co/9MfINRB5Ik 🔖📤⚡️
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
Back in June 2020, CJNG gunmen ambushed then-Mexico City police chief Harfuch.
They bullet-riddled his SUV. 2 bodyguards and 1 bystander died that day.
Harfuch was hit 3 times but survived.
He blamed El Mencho directly.
Fast-forward to 2026: Harfuch is Mexico's Secretary of Security under Sheinbaum.
He helped oversee the military op that took down El Mencho in Jalisco on Feb 22.
Source: Reuters, BBC, The Guardian
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2025729823167877547?s=20
@MarioNawfal
Back in June 2020, CJNG gunmen ambushed then-Mexico City police chief Harfuch.
They bullet-riddled his SUV. 2 bodyguards and 1 bystander died that day.
Harfuch was hit 3 times but survived.
He blamed El Mencho directly.
Fast-forward to 2026: Harfuch is Mexico's Secretary of Security under Sheinbaum.
He helped oversee the military op that took down El Mencho in Jalisco on Feb 22.
Source: Reuters, BBC, The Guardian
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2025729823167877547?s=20
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✍9❤2
Hmm what goods made in mexico will skyrocket tomorrow
Besides Drugs
Besides Drugs
👀9🥰1
Got it — here are the most compelling US and global tradable markets tied to a Manzanillo disruption, without tables, ranked by expected sensitivity and speed.
⸻
🇺🇸 US equities — likely winners (logistics & substitution)
Railroads:
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Union Pacific (UNP) tend to benefit when Mexican port cargo gets diverted inland or shifted modes. If Manzanillo throughput slows, containers reroute via other ports and rail corridors → higher pricing and volumes.
Intermodal & trucking:
J.B. Hunt (JBHT) and Old Dominion (ODFL) gain pricing power during node congestion. Mexico–US lanes tighten quickly when a major port backs up.
Airfreight:
FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS) usually catch urgent substitution (electronics parts, auto components) when ocean delays appear. Even short disruptions can spike air cargo demand.
⸻
🇺🇸 US equities — likely losers (Mexico supply chain dependent)
Autos:
GM, Ford (F), Tesla (TSLA). Mexico supplies wiring harnesses, electronics modules, interiors, castings. These are JIT inputs; port friction → assembly risk and parts shortages.
Appliances & durable goods:
Whirlpool (WHR) has major Mexico production tied to Pacific import components.
Consumer electronics retail:
Best Buy (BBY). Many Asia goods destined for North America move via Mexican Pacific ports before distribution. Delays → inventory gaps.
⸻
🚢 Global shipping & freight rate plays
ZIM (ZIM) and Maersk (AMKBY ADR) typically rise with port congestion because it tightens effective container capacity and lifts spot rates. Even localized disruption at a major node like Manzanillo can ripple across Pacific pricing.
Matson (MATX) can also catch Pacific rate spillover, though it’s more US-Hawaii focused.
⸻
🇲🇽 Mexico exposure (tradable in US)
EWW (Mexico ETF) is the cleanest macro short if disruption persists: port shock → industrial slowdown + import inflation + sentiment hit.
ASUR (ASR ADR) (airports) can benefit from cargo shifting to air logistics.
Walmex ADR (WMMVY) or Mexico retailers generally face import delays → negative.
⸻
💱 FX and macro
USD/MXN long is historically one of the fastest reactions to Mexican security/logistics shocks. Peso weakens on growth risk + trade friction.
Mexican rates (TIIE swaps or Mbonos) tend to price inflation if import costs rise, but that’s slower unless disruption lasts.
⸻
📦 Real-economy commodities & goods
If disruption is real (multi-day+), watch:
• North American auto parts prices (tightness)
• Electronics components spot pricing
• Air cargo indices (jump fast)
• Container freight rates (FBX/SCFI uptick)
⸻
🎯 Most compelling tactical setups (duration >3–5 days)
• Long CPKC or UNP (rail substitution)
• Long FDX or UPS (air cargo surge)
• Short EWW or long USD/MXN (Mexico macro hit)
• Long ZIM (container rate beta)
• Pair: long rails vs short autos (e.g., UNP vs GM)
⸻
⏱️ Reaction order
Hours: FX + shipping + rails
1–3 days: airfreight + trucking
3–10 days: autos/appliances/retail
Weeks: Mexico macro (EWW, rates)
⸻
If you want, I can track confirmed Manzanillo status and give entry triggers (e.g., USD/MXN levels, ZIM rate beta, rail relative strength) as news clarifies whether this is customs-only vs full throughput loss.
⸻
🇺🇸 US equities — likely winners (logistics & substitution)
Railroads:
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Union Pacific (UNP) tend to benefit when Mexican port cargo gets diverted inland or shifted modes. If Manzanillo throughput slows, containers reroute via other ports and rail corridors → higher pricing and volumes.
Intermodal & trucking:
J.B. Hunt (JBHT) and Old Dominion (ODFL) gain pricing power during node congestion. Mexico–US lanes tighten quickly when a major port backs up.
Airfreight:
FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS) usually catch urgent substitution (electronics parts, auto components) when ocean delays appear. Even short disruptions can spike air cargo demand.
⸻
🇺🇸 US equities — likely losers (Mexico supply chain dependent)
Autos:
GM, Ford (F), Tesla (TSLA). Mexico supplies wiring harnesses, electronics modules, interiors, castings. These are JIT inputs; port friction → assembly risk and parts shortages.
Appliances & durable goods:
Whirlpool (WHR) has major Mexico production tied to Pacific import components.
Consumer electronics retail:
Best Buy (BBY). Many Asia goods destined for North America move via Mexican Pacific ports before distribution. Delays → inventory gaps.
⸻
🚢 Global shipping & freight rate plays
ZIM (ZIM) and Maersk (AMKBY ADR) typically rise with port congestion because it tightens effective container capacity and lifts spot rates. Even localized disruption at a major node like Manzanillo can ripple across Pacific pricing.
Matson (MATX) can also catch Pacific rate spillover, though it’s more US-Hawaii focused.
⸻
🇲🇽 Mexico exposure (tradable in US)
EWW (Mexico ETF) is the cleanest macro short if disruption persists: port shock → industrial slowdown + import inflation + sentiment hit.
ASUR (ASR ADR) (airports) can benefit from cargo shifting to air logistics.
Walmex ADR (WMMVY) or Mexico retailers generally face import delays → negative.
⸻
💱 FX and macro
USD/MXN long is historically one of the fastest reactions to Mexican security/logistics shocks. Peso weakens on growth risk + trade friction.
Mexican rates (TIIE swaps or Mbonos) tend to price inflation if import costs rise, but that’s slower unless disruption lasts.
⸻
📦 Real-economy commodities & goods
If disruption is real (multi-day+), watch:
• North American auto parts prices (tightness)
• Electronics components spot pricing
• Air cargo indices (jump fast)
• Container freight rates (FBX/SCFI uptick)
⸻
🎯 Most compelling tactical setups (duration >3–5 days)
• Long CPKC or UNP (rail substitution)
• Long FDX or UPS (air cargo surge)
• Short EWW or long USD/MXN (Mexico macro hit)
• Long ZIM (container rate beta)
• Pair: long rails vs short autos (e.g., UNP vs GM)
⸻
⏱️ Reaction order
Hours: FX + shipping + rails
1–3 days: airfreight + trucking
3–10 days: autos/appliances/retail
Weeks: Mexico macro (EWW, rates)
⸻
If you want, I can track confirmed Manzanillo status and give entry triggers (e.g., USD/MXN levels, ZIM rate beta, rail relative strength) as news clarifies whether this is customs-only vs full throughput loss.
❤11👍1