Forwarded from DoomPosting
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Hugest gains always come toward the END of the 4-year cycle
Biggest 4th year of the 4-year cycle has officially begun
Don’t think of calling top until we near Nov/Dec 2025
Gains will only keep getting bigger until then
Ofc with many short pullbacks along the way
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Biggest 4th year of the 4-year cycle has officially begun
Don’t think of calling top until we near Nov/Dec 2025
Gains will only keep getting bigger until then
Ofc with many short pullbacks along the way
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
🔥1🥰1💯1
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Classic early-stage investing rule of thumb:
“One Deal Returns The Fund”
Direct consequence of power-law distribution of returns
Do whatever it takes to be sure you’ll catch that ~1
— e.g. not dumping 100% too early, to “take profits” like an absolute moron
Miss that 1 and your portolio is DEAD
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
“One Deal Returns The Fund”
Direct consequence of power-law distribution of returns
Do whatever it takes to be sure you’ll catch that ~1
— e.g. not dumping 100% too early, to “take profits” like an absolute moron
Miss that 1 and your portolio is DEAD
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
👍2💯1
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Small 3x wins are considered LOSSES in early-stage investing portfolios
= Better for an individual investment to increase odds of achieving that 100x which “returns the portfolio”, even if doing so also increases risk of 100% loss for that investment
— rather than to lock in a guaranteed 3x that hasn’t yet hit a qualified exit event, and potentially miss that one 100x that “returns the fund”
You can try to argue against these, but they’re a direct consequence of the of early stage investing math
Corollary,
If 1/3rd of your bets are NOT going to zero — then you may not be taking the risks needed to catch the 100x’s need to “return the portfolio”
Many have repeated these classic rules of thumb over the years,
But ~0% are able to absorb these and their consequences it into their heads
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
= Better for an individual investment to increase odds of achieving that 100x which “returns the portfolio”, even if doing so also increases risk of 100% loss for that investment
— rather than to lock in a guaranteed 3x that hasn’t yet hit a qualified exit event, and potentially miss that one 100x that “returns the fund”
You can try to argue against these, but they’re a direct consequence of the of early stage investing math
Corollary,
If 1/3rd of your bets are NOT going to zero — then you may not be taking the risks needed to catch the 100x’s need to “return the portfolio”
Many have repeated these classic rules of thumb over the years,
But ~0% are able to absorb these and their consequences it into their heads
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
💯2
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Wondering why tradfi VC has been totally absent this cycle, compared to the last?
Many reasons, but apparently among the top has been that tradfi VC has been restricted from participating
Meanwhile, this cycle has shifted hard from traditional startup investments, which were dominated by VCs in the past cycle,
— to memecoin investments, which most VCs just aren’t allowed to touch
= Far less competition, for those few who see the opportunity, and can find a way
Memecoin fund?
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Many reasons, but apparently among the top has been that tradfi VC has been restricted from participating
Meanwhile, this cycle has shifted hard from traditional startup investments, which were dominated by VCs in the past cycle,
— to memecoin investments, which most VCs just aren’t allowed to touch
= Far less competition, for those few who see the opportunity, and can find a way
Memecoin fund?
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
🔥1💯1
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Forwarded from DoomPosting
FWIW, now the 3rd time since that the line was drawn on $TRUMP yesterday, that the line has perfectly held up
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
👍1