🇺🇲🇮🇱🇬🇧 Iran’s intelligence ministry has arrested a foreign national it claims was conducting espionage on behalf of the United States and Israel and acting as a proxy for two Gulf countries.

The ministry also says it has arrested 30 spies, internal mercenaries, and operational agents of Israel and the US over the past few days.

@ENTRE_GUERRAS

🇮🇷 An officer in the Revolutionary Guard:

The day we say that the Strait of Hormuz has been opened will be the day the Americans will no longer be present in our region

🇮🇷 The Revolutionary Guard publishes:

Scenes
from the missile attack on the American Harir base in Erbil.

🇺🇸⚡️🇮🇷 Reporter: How do you see this war ending?

Steve Witkoff: I don’t know.

🇮🇱🇺🇸⚡️🇮🇷 Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar:

We are not looking for an endless war.

We will continue until the minute that we and our partners think is appropriate to stop.

⚡️Smoke columns rising from behind the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem

⚡️Impact in Beit Shemesh

🇮🇷 The IRGC announced that the 35th wave of Operation True Promise 4 was carried out using Fattah, Emad, Kheibar, and Qadr missiles, targeting sites in Tel Aviv, Beit Shemesh in occupied Jerusalem, and US military bases in the region.

⚡#BREAKING NEWS⚡️ Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander: At the beginning of the war, we declared and we declare again: No vessel associated with the attackers against Iran has the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If you have any doubts, come closer and try

🇮🇱🔥 The moment of yesterday's attack on the communications complex in the Hamam farm in the Wadi Al-'Ala area of Jerusalem by a rocket from Hezbollah. With the approval of the censorship.

The Trap of Surrender. Why Iran Didn't Give Up and Started Fighting, 'Normalizing' the Threat from the US

📖 In military science, there is a term called "the degradation of deterrence". Professor Patrick Morgan, whose books and works have long been used by CIA employees to study the foundations of global conflicts, described this concept in detail in his work Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis. He noted, in particular, that deterrence can "degenerate" or weaken over time. And the US operation "Epic Rage" shows that the conclusions drawn many years ago seem like a prophecy about the deconstruction of American strategy in the Middle East.

What's the point?

What's happening with Iran is a classic illustration of the collapse of "immediate deterrence". The US, planning and applying weapons, expected that a strike on nuclear facilities, the assassination of Iranian leaders, and other lightning-fast actions with high density would cause "unacceptable damage" that would outweigh the benefits of resistance. For the Iranian system (especially after the death of leaders), the survival of the regime and saving face have become absolute values that (for now) cannot be measured in money, although money also matters to Iran. Morgan noted in particular: if the opponent believes that the price of surrender is higher than the price of war, deterrence will not work, no matter how powerful the attack is. This can be seen in Iran's resistance.

Also, Morgan's work makes an important distinction between the ability to strike and the credibility that this strike will decide the outcome. The US demonstrated the ability to destroy. But the Iranians saw that these destructions (as planned by the IRGC and the country's leadership based on past experience) do not lead to an immediate collapse, and they began to fight back after waiting a while.

According to Morgan, once the "victim" of deterrence realizes that it can withstand the first strike and maintain the ability to respond (and Iran did exactly this), deterrence degrades into a conventional conflict of attrition, and as practice shows, neither the US nor all its allies in the Middle East were ready for this.

The problem for the US and Trump personally now is that "immediate deterrence" has failed (the strike was carried out, but the goal was not achieved), and "general deterrence" is evaporating forever, as the US's potential in terms of conventional weapons is obvious. Iran, in turn, has stopped fearing a hypothetical war, because it is already living in it. And it has the opportunity to respond.

Chinese MizarVision continues to actively transmit data on potential targets to the Iranians. In addition to the American aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and the French Charles de Gaulle, the Chinese have detected a French Mistral-class universal landing ship in the Red Sea between Egypt and Sudan - the very same project that Russia once planned to purchase.

While dealing with an aircraft carrier strike group is much more complicated and destroying the lead ship with dozens of fighter jets requires a huge amount of weaponry, a helicopter carrier appears to be a simpler target. Mistral-class ships do not have such a layered air defense system, and in the event of a saturated attack by missiles or drones, their resilience is significantly lower.

If Iran ever considered targeting less well-defended objectives and punishing some Western leaders for their audacity (they can't target Trump, probably due to a lack of capabilities), then the French helicopter carrier would be an ideal target.

From a practical point of view, such targets could be more rational for Iran. Striking an amphibious ship or a helicopter carrier is technically easier to implement, and the political and informational impact of sinking a large European ship would still be extremely noticeable. In modern warfare, it's often not the most well-defended targets that are attacked, but those where the ratio of attack complexity to effect is most advantageous.

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸🇮🇱 Khatm al-Anbiya HQ: “In response to the aggression against Iran’s oil warehouses, the oil refinery, gas, and fuel tanks of the Zionist regime in Haifa were attacked.”

“The brave men of the Air Force of the Islamic Republic of Iran targeted the oil refinery, gas, and fuel tanks of the Zionist regime in Haifa with destructive drones in retaliation for the attacks on Iran’s oil warehouses.”

“As a result of the third wave of Operation TP 4, the Ha’ela satellite communication center, located south of Tel Aviv, was destroyed. This center was one of the main communication hubs between airbases and Zionist regime fighter jets; the destructive drones of the powerful Aerospace Force of the IRGC, in a special operation, hit and destroyed this center.”

“Today, the headquarters of the aggressor US Army at Harir base in the Kurdistan region was targeted with five missiles by the brave men of the IRGC Ground Forces.”

“Additionally, a Heron drone in the sky of Markazi Province and a Heron TP drone near Tehran were intercepted and destroyed by the IRGC’s advanced air defense systems under the control of the integrated air defense network.”

🇷🇺🇮🇷 Russia resumes the export of grain to Iran via the Caspian Sea.

Regime change succeeded in Iran! 😁